Just think about it for a minute. Corbyn as PM will never be able to implement anything more more left-wing than the kind of social democracy seen on and off across much of western Europe since the war. He will be moderated by rebel soft-left Labour MPs, not to mention his almost certain need to bring along coalition partners.
Labour's backbench MPs will exercise virtually no moderating influence over a Corbyn Government. They are mainly concerned with keeping their jobs. All the ones willing to genuinely challenge him, of whom there were precious few to begin with, have already left.
The possible coalition partners are all just as useless. The Lib Dems and SNP would both sell their own grandmothers to the Pedigree Chum factory in exchange for various referendums. Plaid and the Greens are as nutty as the Labour Left or worse.
A Labour Government under the present management would blow up the foundations of the economy in months. The violation of property rights inherent in forcing large companies to hand shares over to a state quango would do the job on its own. Why should anyone from abroad invest capital in this country, and why should anyone at home or abroad invest in a UK-listed firm, if the Government obviously feels free to confiscate whatever they want on a whim at any time?
And the notion that the vast increases in public spending proposed by Labour can be funded painlessly for 95% of the population, simply by taxing the rich until the pips squeak and hiking business taxation, is laughable. The most well-off taxpayers are, predominantly, also the most mobile and can run away if sumptuary levels of taxation are imposed. The businesses will respond by cutting investment in the UK, sacking workers to balance the books and putting up prices to consumers. The extra revenue raised by the windfall tax proposed on oil and gas firms, for example, will simply be negated by the costs of rising petrol and domestic fuel prices for consumers, and of unemployment for the oil industry workers who'll be laid off.
The risks inherent in a Labour Government are, at present, vastly greater than those associated with Brexit. If the Revolutionary Friends of Venezuela fall flat on their faces come December 12th then it will be a huge relief. The worse they lose, the better.
It is neither inevitable or necessarily harmful that businesses will depart UK or avoid investing due to taxes or nationalisation. Companies trade here because they want the profit from people reading ads/doughnuts/gas/oil/coffee/hipsters/pounds shops. If they leave, others will come into those markets and take over, using the same staff and equipment and systems. The only risk is to secondary markets - manufacturing and service staffing - but those are not threatened by Lab.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
It can't be a representative sample if only 9% didn't vote in 2017, since 52% of Sun readers didn't vote in that election, according to polling undertaken immediately afterwards. So I would be doubtful about the accuracy of this (I know, shocking that a Sun journalist would Tweet something dishonest).
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Have you had any nice young student types waving their bar charts on your doorstep yet?
People should try to keep a sense of proportion, that's all I am saying. A Corbyn government is gong to be akin to the Russian Revolution or the rise of the Nazis.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner for Freudian slip of the 21st century.
Haha yes well, you knew what I meant!
Well, I will admit it was perhaps not quite as good as the moment Corbyn said as a good democrat he would never prorogue Parliament.
What he meant of course was he would never misuse prerogative powers as Johnson had.
What he said was he would abolish elections.
Incidentally I do not expect a Corbyn government to be like War Communism under Lenin. However, there is a distinct possibility their policies would lead to a Venezuela outcome. Indeed, as we have fewer natural resources than Venezuela we are considerably more vulnerable to the graft, greed and mismanagement of Socialism than they are.
I have recently got to know a young, smart, politically aware Venezuelan lady. Maria.
"Reader, I married her."
Say it loud and it’s music playing Say it soft and it’s almost like praying
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Used to get 4 or so leaflets in a no hope safe Tory seat myself, but not in 2017 and seemingly no attention now, alas.
So Sturgeon standing down Q2 2020 - if only there was a market to bet on it.
Because of the Salmond trial? I’ve always thought SNP hubris would eventually be tamed, quite severely. That might be the means.
Not because of that - the SNP have lost a Glasgow Lord Provost - the leader of Glasgow council is being forced out under the cover of the election aftermath. Then NS.
Just think about it for a minute. Corbyn as PM will never be able to implement anything more more left-wing than the kind of social democracy seen on and off across much of western Europe since the war. He will be moderated by rebel soft-left Labour MPs, not to mention his almost certain need to bring along coalition partners.
Labour's backbench MPs will exercise virtually no moderating influence over a Corbyn Government. They are mainly concerned with keeping their jobs. All the ones willing to genuinely challenge him, of whom there were precious few to begin with, have already left.
The possible coalition partners are all just as useless. The Lib Dems and SNP would both sell their own grandmothers to the Pedigree Chum factory in exchange for various referendums. Plaid and the Greens are as nutty as the Labour Left or worse.
A Labour Government under the present management would blow up the foundations of the economy in months. The violation of property rights inherent in forcing large companies to hand shares over to a state quango would do the job on its own. Why should anyone from abroad invest capital in this country, and why should anyone at home or abroad invest in a UK-listed firm, if the Government obviously feels free to confiscate whatever they want on a whim at any time? , will simply be negated by the costs of rising petrol and domestic fuel prices for consumers, and of unemployment for the oil industry workers who'll be laid off.
The risks inherent in a Labour Government are, at present, vastly greater than those associated with Brexit. If the Revolutionary Friends of Venezuela fall flat on their faces come December 12th then it will be a huge relief. The worse they lose, the better.
It is neither inevitable or necessarily harmful that businesses will depart UK or avoid investing due to taxes or nationalisation. Companies trade here because they want the profit from people reading ads/doughnuts/gas/oil/coffee/hipsters/pounds shops. If they leave, others will come into those markets and take over, using the same staff and equipment and systems. The only risk is to secondary markets - manufacturing and service staffing - but those are not threatened by Lab.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Have you had any nice young student types waving their bar charts on your doorstep yet?
nope... the only canvassers have been Cons and they are also the only ones with posters up
Does anyone wonder what the rest of the world thinks when they see clips of those declarations with the PM and a host of unusual characters .
Unless their commentators explain this tradition they would think what’s going on.
I hope they don't explain it. Makes it mysterious and hilarious.
Though genuine quesiton, is it that unusual?
I have just emailed the article on Lord Buckethead and Count Binface to my (American) wife and step daughter, with the header "only in British politics ..."
When I was in Geneva dating an interpreter, she used to love using snippets from British newspapers' quirky stories to train up student interpreters.
Some also worried about what state-run broadband would actually be like: “Slow. Unreliable;” “They’d be able to listen down every Alexa in every house;” “It screams ‘state-owned internet’ to me. It’s not going to be North Korea, but it does scream ‘control’; “It would be like Big Brother, with all your personal details and social media profiles and everything else. Would you want that in a government-owned business?
The eavesdropping seems a bit OTT, but when it comes to tech people do really worry about this stuff.
I think this policy would have been a lot more popular if they hadn't gone with the state owned monopoly ISP. I doubt people would have been up in arms at the backbone infrastructure stuff they don't really understand.
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
Papers going heavy with the “neutral” comment tomorrow. Can’t see that doing Corbyn any good.
I can’t see it hurting him much . Most Labour voters know he’s trying to juggle both Remainers and Leavers . It depends how Labour play this , if you say you want to be neutral and not pick sides so as to be able to bring the country back together.
I’m a staunch Labour Remainer and could care less if Corbyn remains neutral , indeed I welcome it .
Abdicating leadership on something as crucial as Brexit will not work. It shows an element of contempt for both sets of voters IMO. Anyway, staying neutral doesn't alter the fact that Corbyn is still proposing to re-run the 2016 referendum. His position is hopelessly naive.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Used to get 4 or so leaflets in a no hope safe Tory seat myself, but not in 2017 and seemingly no attention now, alas.
Are the 8 leaflets all different too? Good stuff.
Yes, all different. This one was all about who could stop Corbyn suggesting the battle is on for second place. Zero from Labour to date.
Still no agreement about the agreement to take us out OR series of terrible deals with EU/US and others. Replacing ECJ with legally-binding commercial tribunals (even worse, with trade their remit, rather than human, social or environmental need - which is the only reason we have trade).
Northern Ireland no Stormont and popular opinion demanding a border poll... Work of GFA unravelling. Sectarianism rife.
Scotland votes for Indy? Wales moves in that direction.
Another set of housebuilding pledges ignored. Plenty of 'affordable homes' to buy if you earn over £40,000 a year are mobile, and have a car.
Another 50% less bus journeys available, whilst ridership plummets and fares get (even more) astronomical.
Worse of all, continuation of our pathetic action on the most compelling issue for humans - climate change.
Papers going heavy with the “neutral” comment tomorrow. Can’t see that doing Corbyn any good.
Oh no, it's a stroke of brilliance by Our Jez, who together with Diane has divined that with the country being divided 50% Leave and 50% Remain, there's a huge Neutral group of 180% just waiting to be won over!
I laugh at some of the media and this obsession with Corbyns stance .
Have they been on Mars for the last 3 years . And do they really think Labour voters are going to say , shock horror Corbyns neutral on Brexit I must now vote for Bozo .
Papers going heavy with the “neutral” comment tomorrow. Can’t see that doing Corbyn any good.
I can’t see it hurting him much . Most Labour voters know he’s trying to juggle both Remainers and Leavers . It depends how Labour play this , if you say you want to be neutral and not pick sides so as to be able to bring the country back together.
I’m a staunch Labour Remainer and could care less if Corbyn remains neutral , indeed I welcome it .
Prime Ministers have to make decisions. Huge decisions and small ones every day. They have to lead, for good or bad, in adversity or consensus. That’s their role and what they’re elected and paid to do.
To remain neutral is a cop out of a decision he’s either unable or unwilling to make. This is because the man has spent the last 30 years decrying the EU with all the passion he uses for his other pet causes. He is having his hands tied by the membership that put him there and he hates it.
Corbyn is not shy of espousing his other many beliefs, many of which are at the edge of mainstream UK thinking. Yet for some reason he’s remarkably shy of Brexit. Because for perhaps the first time in his political career he’s being forced to adopt a position he disagrees with and there’s nothing he can do about it.
So rather than leading or making a stand he’s running away from the decision.
Point being a PM can’t run away from making decisions no matter how hard or contrary to ones beliefs. The buck stops with them. If he runs away from this, how on earth can he run a country when there’ll be hundreds of decisions to make.
Papers going heavy with the “neutral” comment tomorrow. Can’t see that doing Corbyn any good.
I can’t see it hurting him much . Most Labour voters know he’s trying to juggle both Remainers and Leavers . It depends how Labour play this , if you say you want to be neutral and not pick sides so as to be able to bring the country back together.
I’m a staunch Labour Remainer and could care less if Corbyn remains neutral , indeed I welcome it .
Abdicating leadership on something as crucial as Brexit will not work. It shows an element of contempt for both sets of voters IMO. Anyway, staying neutral doesn't alter the fact that Corbyn is still proposing to re-run the 2016 referendum. His position is hopelessly naive.
I suppose it beats saying I lied in 2017 when I said labour would respect the 2016 referendum result.
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
It will be crap, even the Leavers are saying so now.
It is like having colonoscopy without sedation, just something to 'get done", though afterwards to find out that it is the first of many...
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Labour and Corbyn have been put into an impossible position by the Brexit referendum. Jeremy Corbyn’s “neutral” position on Brexit is far from ideal, but it’s the least worst of all the options available. They are in a cleft stick, trying to hold onto leave seats (mostly in the north) and remain seats (mostly in the south).
There’s no ideal option, other than to give up one or the other completely which would inevitably result in electoral disaster. You can try to tell me some other Labour leader would have done better, but I’d be highly sceptical. It’s such a delicate balancing act, and for me Corbyn is doing about as well as is possible in the circumstances.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Will be interesting to find out just how many they are targeting like this.
Papers going heavy with the “neutral” comment tomorrow. Can’t see that doing Corbyn any good.
I can’t see it hurting him much . Most Labour voters know he’s trying to juggle both Remainers and Leavers . It depends how Labour play this , if you say you want to be neutral and not pick sides so as to be able to bring the country back together.
I’m a staunch Labour Remainer and could care less if Corbyn remains neutral , indeed I welcome it .
Abdicating leadership on something as crucial as Brexit will not work. It shows an element of contempt for both sets of voters IMO. Anyway, staying neutral doesn't alter the fact that Corbyn is still proposing to re-run the 2016 referendum. His position is hopelessly naive.
I don’t think it’s about contempt. It depends how Labour play this , you can make a supposed weakness into a positive. He wants to bring the country together.
And by being neutral he can do that will be his argument .
It can't be a representative sample if only 9% didn't vote in 2017, since 52% of Sun readers didn't vote in that election, according to polling undertaken immediately afterwards. So I would be doubtful about the accuracy of this (I know, shocking that a Sun journalist would Tweet something dishonest).
It's a bit out there, but I think what they mean is that 9% of those saying they plan to vote this time say they didn't vote last time.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Will be interesting to find out just how many they are targeting like this.
I live in a very safe Conservative seat in the East of England (that can't by any definition be considered a target) and have had multiple leaflet drops by the LDs in the past few weeks. Nothing from any other party, presumably as they think there are better places to target scarce resources.
Papers going heavy with the “neutral” comment tomorrow. Can’t see that doing Corbyn any good.
Corbyn has to say that in order to have a chance of retaining seats like Grimsby and Scunthorpe.
I am not sure the mood of the country wants to here about the prospect of resetting the clock again, a re-re-re-negotiation and another vote. I think it is about as popular as Prince Andrew at Christmas lunch with the family this year.
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
It will be crap, even the Leavers are saying so now.
It is like having colonoscopy without sedation, just something to 'get done", though afterwards to find out that it is the first of many...
If they are, I'm not one of them. I don't think anyone has a clue how extraordinary it is going to be to have that dead weight lifted off our political system and our economy.
People should try to keep a sense of proportion, that's all I am saying. A Corbyn government is gong to be akin to the Russian Revolution or the rise of the Nazis.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner for Freudian slip of the 21st century.
Haha yes well, you knew what I meant!
Well, I will admit it was perhaps not quite as good as the moment Corbyn said as a good democrat he would never prorogue Parliament.
What he meant of course was he would never misuse prerogative powers as Johnson had.
What he said was he would abolish elections.
Incidentally I do not expect a Corbyn government to be like War Communism under Lenin. However, there is a distinct possibility their policies would lead to a Venezuela outcome. Indeed, as we have fewer natural resources than Venezuela we are considerably more vulnerable to the graft, greed and mismanagement of Socialism than they are.
I have recently got to know a young, smart, politically aware Venezuelan lady. Maria. She’s the kind of woman who might be a passionate Corbynite or XR-er if she were British
She fears, despises and loathes Corbyn. Because her family (not posh) suffered so much under Chavez. Including rape and death. Her Venezuelan husband encountered Corbyn on a train a few weeks go, and he went up to Jeremy to have words. Jeremy shrank away.
We need to listen to the Venezuelan people, not to Jeremy and his pals.
I have nothing good to say on Chavez. But Johnson and the Tories have been providing arms to Saudi. To decimate people. Even worse.
And, like Corbyn and co, Johnson and co have kept company with nefarious people at home and abroad.
Two wrongs don't make a right. One bad act doesn't justify another.
But if you're judging decision-makers and/or encouraging people to vote on that basis, compare evenly.
Papers going heavy with the “neutral” comment tomorrow. Can’t see that doing Corbyn any good.
I can’t see it hurting him much . Most Labour voters know he’s trying to juggle both Remainers and Leavers . It depends how Labour play this , if you say you want to be neutral and not pick sides so as to be able to bring the country back together.
I’m a staunch Labour Remainer and could care less if Corbyn remains neutral , indeed I welcome it .
Prime Ministers have to make decisions. Huge decisions and small ones every day. They have to lead, for good or bad, in adversity or consensus. That’s their role and what they’re elected and paid to do.
To remain neutral is a cop out of a decision he’s either unable or unwilling to make. This is because the man has spent the last 30 years decrying the EU with all the passion he uses for his other pet causes. He is having his hands tied by the membership that put him there and he hates it.
Corbyn is not shy of espousing his other many beliefs, many of which are at the edge of mainstream UK thinking. Yet for some reason he’s remarkably shy of Brexit. Because for perhaps the first time in his political career he’s being forced to adopt a position he disagrees with and there’s nothing he can do about it.
So rather than leading or making a stand he’s running away from the decision.
Point being a PM can’t run away from making decisions no matter how hard or contrary to ones beliefs. The buck stops with them. If he runs away from this, how on earth can he run a country when there’ll be hundreds of decisions to make.
You make some good points but Corbyn can get away with this because people understand he’s trying to keep both Remainers and Leavers onside .
Everyone knows he’s a Eurosceptic and has been dragged towards a second vote . Labour Remainers are willing to put up with this because they will get their second vote .
Just as Leavers are willing to look past Johnson’s many shortcomings Remainers are willing to do the same with Corbyn .
I have nothing against the Lib Dems , and Labour do need them to do well in those Tory Lib Dem marginals but I’ve had deep reservations about their revoke policy from the start .
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
It will be crap, even the Leavers are saying so now.
It is like having colonoscopy without sedation, just something to 'get done", though afterwards to find out that it is the first of many...
I do wonder if the Conservative election campaign in 2024 will be focussed around "it's your own fault that everything is awful, you voted for it". I really don't want Scotland and NI to leave the UK, but I wouldn't blame them for going if the alternative is a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. I can't see either of them being good for the UK in the long term and there's no way Swinson will replace Labour as the main opposition.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Will be interesting to find out just how many they are targeting like this.
I live in a very safe Conservative seat in the East of England (that can't by any definition be considered a target) and have had multiple leaflet drops by the LDs in the past few weeks. Nothing from any other party, presumably as they think there are better places to target scarce resources.
LDs have more money to splash than they have had in decades iirc.
I think a Corbyn government will be like running the hot tap for a bit when your bath has got too cold. You wouldn't want to fill the whole bath with scalding water, but when you've let the bath get way too cold you can't heat it up with lukewarm water. In other words, Thatcherism has run its course, the country is in a mess, it needs a radical change of direction and bold ideas. I wouldn't want that project brought fully to fruition. But rehashed Blairism won't bring us out of the rut we are in. But it's all academic anyway. The Tories will win the election handsomely and it will be full steam ahead for a WTO Brexit in 2021.
The Boris Deal actually enables free trade talks and a free trade deal with the EU
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
Back in 2016, I might have said that Brexit would allow for a correction of horribly schlerotic domestic Westminster politics, leading to better governance in the long term; would have given us greater economic flexibility and enabled us to better adjust our regulatory ecosystem to compete in global markets, as other middle economies like Canada and South Korea, do in the long term; would ensure we weren't subject to a unified European state, with the resulting American-style implications of social policy for the whole being held back by member states with conservative views on race and sex, in the long term.
However I think the most immediate reason now - after three and a half years of delay - to 'get Brexit done' is to avoid a medium term political catastrophe.
Given what has happened over the past three and a half years - where a small band of hardcore Remainers who refuse to respect the result of the referendum have helped to sow enormous distrust and suspicion among Leave voters - I can't see how there is any realistic way that a revocation of Article 50, or a narrow Remain vote in a second referendum, is accepted by a good chunk of the country.
If Brexit does not happen, the most immediate victims will be the Conservatives, who have nailed their colours to the Brexit mast. The Conservatives have pivoted to become the party of Brexit. At some point, either Brexit happens, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, then the party that portrayed itself as the party to deliver Brexit is going to suffer a potentially fatal loss of confidence.
'OK, great,' some people might say, 'the Tories are scum and I'm glad they're no longer seen as a viable political party.' Except the implosion of one half of the political spectrum means there is a huge vacuum. A vacuum that will almost certainly be filled with an extremely unpleasant alternative.
I recognise that avoiding an extremely unpleasant far right uprising in the UK is not a real positive. It would have been far better to avoid that possibility altogether, either by the UK voting to Remain with a huge, unquestionable majority, or with the small band of hardcore Remainers accepting the result and not deepening existing splits in British society. But we are where we are. Either we get this done or we hand the Faragists Britain on a platter.
Looking at where the Tories are holding GOTV efforts it seems like they are being very conservative about what they think should be targets. Sensible, not to get carried away.
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
It will be crap, even the Leavers are saying so now.
It is like having colonoscopy without sedation, just something to 'get done", though afterwards to find out that it is the first of many...
If they are, I'm not one of them. I don't think anyone has a clue how extraordinary it is going to be to have that dead weight lifted off our political system and our economy.
What's going to be extraordinary about it? Being stuck in a perpetual transition period because the Walloons don't like the deal? Letting in sub-standard USA agri-food products to make up for losing the ability to export food to the EU? Having the NHS barred from negotiating cheaper bulk deals on pharmaceutical products? Preventing GMO food being labelled as such to keep the US producers happy?
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Are they not concerned about bracing constituency spending limits?
Back in 2016, I might have said that Brexit would allow for a correction of horribly schlerotic domestic Westminster politics, leading to better governance in the long term; would have given us greater economic flexibility and enabled us to better adjust our regulatory ecosystem to compete in global markets, as other middle economies like Canada and South Korea, do in the long term; would ensure we weren't subject to a unified European state, with the resulting American-style implications of social policy for the whole being held back by member states with conservative views on race and sex, in the long term.
However I think the most immediate reason now - after three and a half years of delay - to 'get Brexit done' is to avoid a medium term political catastrophe.
Given what has happened over the past three and a half years - where a small band of hardcore Remainers who refuse to respect the result of the referendum have helped to sow enormous distrust and suspicion among Leave voters - I can't see how there is any realistic way that a revocation of Article 50, or a narrow Remain vote in a second referendum, is accepted by a good chunk of the country.
If Brexit does not happen, the most immediate victims will be the Conservatives, who have nailed their colours to the Brexit mast. The Conservatives have pivoted to become the party of Brexit. At some point, either Brexit happens, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, then the party that portrayed itself as the party to deliver Brexit is going to suffer a potentially fatal loss of confidence.
'OK, great,' some people might say, 'the Tories are scum and I'm glad they're no longer seen as a viable political party.' Except the implosion of one half of the political spectrum means there is a huge vacuum. A vacuum that will almost certainly be filled with an extremely unpleasant alternative.
I recognise that avoiding an extremely unpleasant far right uprising in the UK is not a real positive. It would have been far better to avoid that possibility altogether, either by the UK voting to Remain with a huge, unquestionable majority, or with the small band of hardcore Remainers accepting the result and not deepening existing splits in British society. But we are where we are. Either we get this done or we hand the Faragists Britain on a platter.
Your post makes sense. Except for one point. I'm struggling to see much difference between what the Conservative party is promising to do once it has a majority and what the Farageists would like to do if they were in power. Priti Patel and Daminic Raab are hardly beacons of one nation Conservatism.
Just think about it for a minute. Corbyn as PM will never be able to implement anything more more left-wing than the kind of social democracy seen on and off across much of western Europe since the war. He will be moderated by rebel soft-left Labour MPs, not to mention his almost certain need to bring along coalition partners.
Labour's backbench MPs will exercise virtually no moderating influence over a Corbyn Government. They are mainly concerned with keeping their jobs. All the ones willing to genuinely challenge him, of whom there were precious few to begin with, have already left.
The possible coalition partners are all just as useless. The Lib Dems and SNP would both sell their own grandmothers to the Pedigree Chum factory in exchange for various referendums. Plaid and the Greens are as nutty as the Labour Left or worse.
A Labour Government under the present management would blow up the foundations of the economy in months. The violation of property rights inherent in forcing large companies to hand shares over to a state quango would do the job on its own. Why should anyone from abroad invest capital in this country, and why should anyone at home or abroad invest in a UK-listed firm, if the Government obviously feels free to confiscate whatever they want on a whim at any time? , will simply be negated by the costs of rising petrol and domestic fuel prices for consumers, and of unemployment for the oil industry workers who'll be laid off.
The risks inherent in a Labour Government are, at present, vastly greater than those associated with Brexit. If the Revolutionary Friends of Venezuela fall flat on their faces come December 12th then it will be a huge relief. The worse they lose, the better.
It is neither inevitable or necessarily harmful that businesses will depart UK or avoid investing due to taxes or nationalisation. Companies trade here because they want the profit from people reading ads/doughnuts/gas/oil/coffee/hipsters/pounds shops. If they leave, others will come into those markets and take over, using the same staff and equipment and systems. The only risk is to secondary markets - manufacturing and service staffing - but those are not threatened by Lab.
Ok, Labourbot
With respect, that's unnecessary. If you have nothing to add... best to sleep
P.s. I have never voted or contemplated voting or supporting Labour actually. (Despite the colour of my avatar )
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
Back in 2016, I might have said that Brexit would allow for a correction of horribly schlerotic domestic Westminster politics, leading to better governance in the long term; would have given us greater economic flexibility and enabled us to better adjust our regulatory ecosystem to compete in global markets, as other middle economies like Canada and South Korea, do in the long term; would ensure we weren't subject to a unified European state, with the resulting American-style implications of social policy for the whole being held back by member states with conservative views on race and sex, in the long term.
However I think the most immediate reason now - after three and a half years of delay - to 'get Brexit done' is to avoid a medium term political catastrophe.
Given what has happened over the past three and a half years - where a small band of hardcore Remainers who refuse to respect the result of the referendum have helped to sow enormous distrust and suspicion among Leave voters - I can't see how there is any realistic way that a revocation of Article 50, or a narrow Remain vote in a second referendum, is accepted by a good chunk of the country.
If Brexit does not happen, the most immediate victims will be the Conservatives, who have nailed their colours to the Brexit mast. The Conservatives have pivoted to become the party of Brexit. At some point, either Brexit happens, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, then the party that portrayed itself as the party to deliver Brexit is going to suffer a potentially fatal loss of confidence.
'OK, great,' some people might say, 'the Tories are scum and I'm glad they're no longer seen as a viable political party.' Except the implosion of one half of the political spectrum means there is a huge vacuum. A vacuum that will almost certainly be filled with an extremely unpleasant alternative.
I recognise that avoiding an extremely unpleasant far right uprising in the UK is not a real positive. It would have been far better to avoid that possibility altogether, either by the UK voting to Remain with a huge, unquestionable majority, or with the small band of hardcore Remainers accepting the result and not deepening existing splits in British society. But we are where we are. Either we get this done or we hand the Faragists Britain on a platter.
The Conservatives are a Faragist Party now. Raab, Patel, Johnson...the liberal wing of the Conservative Party is dead.
I'm still left wondering what I'm (me, personally) going to get out of "getting Brexit done", beyond a warm fuzzy feeling inside. Is it going to make me better off? Will it make my job more secure? Am I going to have more money to spend afterwards? Or is it just going to be a complete dog's breakfast?
It will be crap, even the Leavers are saying so now.
It is like having colonoscopy without sedation, just something to 'get done", though afterwards to find out that it is the first of many...
If they are, I'm not one of them. I don't think anyone has a clue how extraordinary it is going to be to have that dead weight lifted off our political system and our economy.
Yep I am with you. The idea that Leavers are regretting their decision or think it will end badly is laughable. By and large the belief is that the problems we are seeing now are the result of politicians refusing to accept the result and causing massive uncertainty. Brexit is still a great idea and will turn out to be the best decision the UK ever made.
Tories on 40% in the North and Midlands, Labour on 37% and the LDs on 13% in the poll.
Swing of 3.5% to the Tories from Labour in Yorkshire and Humber and 4.5% in the North East and 4% in the East Midlands and 8.5% in the North West, though only 0.5% in the West Midlands in the poll taken Thursday and yesterday by Survation.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Your post makes sense. Except for one point. I'm struggling to see much difference between what the Conservative party is promising to do once it has a majority and what the Farageists would like to do if they were in power. Priti Patel and Daminic Raab are hardly beacons of one nation Conservatism.
I would say the distinctions are threefold:
1) Patel and Raab aren't Prime Ministers. Johnson is PM and, apart from his record on Brexit, is what would be considered a 'social liberal' (voting to repeal Section 28) and an 'economic moderate' (spunking a lot of cash up the wall, to steal a phrase, to win votes). He isn't going to roll back rights, or cut spending even further. I might not personally like what Johnson is doing. But I'd be much less keen on people like him being turfed out and replaced with the Nigel Farages and Anne Widdecombes of the world, who clearly would gut rights and slash spending.
2) Preservation of democratic norms. Hugely important but as we are seeing in the United States easy to lose. If we piss about even more on Brexit, and we allow a resurgent Brexit Party to run rampant amongst a dying Conservative Party, then there is a serious risk that these people could make up a significant opposition block in a future Parliament, or even win enough seats to form a Government. We're already running things close with prorogation, Parliamentary gameplaying and the failure of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act. If the Faragists accumulate enough Parliamentary representation, they could ape the Tea Party in the US, cause Parliamentary chaos, erode the shared democratic norms required to maintain democratic systems, and cultivate deep resentment that further divides British society.
3) Unpredictability of a potential right-wing successor party, and Johnson being, for better or worse, a known quanitity. I would disagree with the assertion that Johnson and Farage are ideologically or practically aligned, because I think there are clear divisions between them on social and economic policy. However, there is no guarantee that a successor to the Conservative Party would be as 'moderate' as Farage. You would be generating huge uncertainty that would easily lead to someone much further to the right reaching critical mass in the British right. Johnson is a known quantity while the alternatives are a leap into the dark.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Are they not concerned about bracing constituency spending limits?
Most LD targets have their own printing operations
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Only 8 leaflets. That's less than one a day
Some of us do not even get 8 leaflets during an election campaign
Not a peep, a squeak or even a dodgy bar chart from the Lib Dems in East Surrey - and they usually go fairly hard here, especially in the locals. Maybe Big Sam's decision not to hang around was a factor - or possibly it was the other way round and he was told that if he stood again here as an LD he wouldn't get the full backing package?
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Will be interesting to find out just how many they are targeting like this.
If they are, I'm not one of them. I don't think anyone has a clue how extraordinary it is going to be to have that dead weight lifted off our political system and our economy.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Only 8 leaflets. That's less than one a day
We haven't had any leaflets yet from anyone in the election. I have had two phone calls from the Tory agent but that's because he's a friend.
Con won 2017 by 2.5%, so 4.5% swing equates to 11.5% lead if replicated nationally.
Last Survation was Con +14, the one before was Con +6. Survation generally a good pollster for Lab but that changed big time with their last national poll.
So this poll looks pretty much bang on par - which is good for Con given it's largely post Lab manifesto - implying no / little Lab manifesto bounce.
As for individual regions - where are the most marginals?
Con huge swing in North West, but almost no swing in West Midlands.
Overall, reassuring poll for Con after the slightly disappointing Panelbase earlier.
Con won 2017 by 2.5%, so 4.5% swing equates to 11.5% lead if replicated nationally.
Last Survation was Con +14, the one before was Con +6. Survation generally a good pollster for Lab but that changed big time with their last national poll.
So this poll looks pretty much bang on par - which is good for Con given it's largely post Lab manifesto - implying no / little Lab manifesto bounce.
As for individual regions - where are the most marginals?
Con huge swing in North West, but almost no swing in West Midlands.
Overall, reassuring poll for Con after the slightly disappointing Panelbase earlier.
Con won 2017 by 2.5%, so 4.5% swing equates to 11.5% lead if replicated nationally.
Last Survation was Con +14, the one before was Con +6. Survation generally a good pollster for Lab but that changed big time with their last national poll.
So this poll looks pretty much bang on par - which is good for Con given it's largely post Lab manifesto - implying no / little Lab manifesto bounce.
As for individual regions - where are the most marginals?
Con huge swing in North West, but almost no swing in West Midlands.
Overall, reassuring poll for Con after the slightly disappointing Panelbase earlier.
You have calmed my nerves.
Possibly famous last words and of course wrong to read too much into one poll.
However, on face of it, this looks as if it's arguably the single most important poll of the entire campaign so far because:
- Post Lab manifesto - Big sample (3,000) - It's North and Midlands which have higher than average number of Lab marginals so key area for Con gains
Also note BXP quite high at 7% - this area which will have disproportionately high number of BXP candidates - as almost all of South is Con (except London).
IF BXP withdrawals have solidified Con held seats then it's the Lab marginals which are absolutely key.
Having caught up, that is probably a fair summary.
Though I have noted LDs having a go at other LDs to "stop posting comments that they can use against us", which perhaps points to an elevated self-image for those individuals.
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
Majority of 110 - I admire your stab at being bold and stepping out. I would have said less, 40 plus was my figure but even then am not so sure. Still got almost 3 weeks to go and I think the Conservatives have yet to firm up their base.
Looking at where the Tories are holding GOTV efforts it seems like they are being very conservative about what they think should be targets. Sensible, not to get carried away.
Doesn't seem to be much excitement expected in the SW now. Camborne has an invite, and our Totnes canvassing dates are in there - I suspect so that folks can give a little cheer when Wollaston loses and think "Yep - I helped make that happen...".
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
And TSE will rend his garments in twain, Boris having restored a majority that May lost - and of a size that his Dream Team of David Cameron and George Osborne could never even dream about.
Bold call on SCons. Feel Boris will suffer some losses.
On Labour seats won - 60 is at the point where Labour's entire election spend on their fire wall has been utterly wasted. The great unknown for me is that next tier of seats beyond, where they have always been Labour and never had to make a meaningful defence since 1987 - or maybe even before. How equipped are they to get out their vote in these seats if Boris actually proves popular? Or Corbyn and his Grand Socialist Plan proves not?
There are 99 Labour seats held with a majority of under 10,000. There are very few of those that at this point can be utterly relaxed about holding their seat. On a really bad night for Labour, their majorities have just stayed home to watch the telly, rather than gone over to Boris. If numbers of them defy tradition and go over to Boris in heavy Leave seats - who knows where their losses might end.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
Are they not concerned about bracing constituency spending limits?
Most LD targets have their own printing operations
The Conservatives are a Faragist Party now. Raab, Patel, Johnson...the liberal wing of the Conservative Party is dead.
Utter nonsense. Just wait and see how One Nation the new intake looks and acts, having shed the dead skin of its Eurofanatic headbangers. And how socially liberal Boris proves to be with a decent majority at his back.
Boris could easily camp his tanks on the lawn of social democracy in the UK.
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
same... leaflet 8 in Finchley & Golders Green today
Yes, I've had half a dozen, and LibDem friends tell me they're astonished at the resources being made available to them in the target seats.
How many of those leaflet extolling the delights of "Jo Swinson, Prime Minister" have resulted in the LibDems losing a quarter to a third of their vote during the camapign is moot.
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
A brave forecast to be sure ... pity (so far) that your Dad hasn't been able to arrange a sponsor for a cash prize competition on the GE outcome. If your figures were to prove correct, you'd surely in line to clean up. You also deserve a special commendation for daring to suggest on PB that the Yellow Team are set to do so disastrously after all the excitement over electing their new leader to succeed the rather dull figure of Cable, together with a general expectation just a few weeks ago that they were capable of picking up around 40-50 seats. Unfortunately for them, Jo Swinson completely blew their chances even before the campaign properly got underway with her bizarre stance on revoking Article 50 thus wrecking any notion of the Liberal Democrats being even vaguely democratic.
What the BBC said in advance about their debate audience:
"How is the audience picked?
The audience will be selected by the Question Time production team to reflect how people in the country have voted. People apply online or by phone and will be asked about their past voting patterns and future voting intentions, whether they're members of political parties, and how they voted in the EU referendum.
The BBC aims to represent audiences across the UK during its election coverage, so while the audience will probably be broadly local to the venue, to ensure there are sufficient supporters of all the parties some will have travelled further."
What the BBC said in advance about their debate audience:
"How is the audience picked?
The audience will be selected by the Question Time production team to reflect how people in the country have voted. People apply online or by phone and will be asked about their past voting patterns and future voting intentions, whether they're members of political parties, and how they voted in the EU referendum.
The BBC aims to represent audiences across the UK during its election coverage, so while the audience will probably be broadly local to the venue, to ensure there are sufficient supporters of all the parties some will have travelled further."
What the BBC said in advance about their debate audience:
"How is the audience picked?
The audience will be selected by the Question Time production team to reflect how people in the country have voted. People apply online or by phone and will be asked about their past voting patterns and future voting intentions, whether they're members of political parties, and how they voted in the EU referendum.
The BBC aims to represent audiences across the UK during its election coverage, so while the audience will probably be broadly local to the venue, to ensure there are sufficient supporters of all the parties some will have travelled further."
I should say I yet again received Lib Dem propaganda. It is literally daily. I wonder if they really are just targeting a very small number of seats really hard?
OT. MM. Possible Bafta winner in a local category 'Blue Story'. Extremely well done for a low budget British film. More rounded in my opinion than Ken Loach's latest offering
To be fair one can see the attraction of 'we voted so we ought to...' and 'Get Brexit done'. Boris' insistence on 'getting the country going' is attractive too. TBH, as a staunch Remainer..... I'm sure we're far, far better off in the EC ....... I suspect we're going to have to jump into the cold water and realise it IS cold and debilitating, rather than energising.
Return rather than Revoke!
Unless, of course, the eleven months from January to December 2020 prove so debilitating that everything collapses.
Comments
Unless their commentators explain this tradition they would think what’s going on.
Though genuine quesiton, is it that unusual?
Are the 8 leaflets all different too? Good stuff.
When I was in Geneva dating an interpreter, she used to love using snippets from British newspapers' quirky stories to train up student interpreters.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/its-insulting-peoples-intelligence-the-government-is-paying-so-we-are-its-so-overwhelming-i-feel-quite-sick-my-election-focus-groups-in-alyn-deeside-wrexha/
The eavesdropping seems a bit OTT, but when it comes to tech people do really worry about this stuff.
I think this policy would have been a lot more popular if they hadn't gone with the state owned monopoly ISP. I doubt people would have been up in arms at the backbone infrastructure stuff they don't really understand.
(amidst another recession)
Still no agreement about the agreement to take us out OR series of terrible deals with EU/US and others. Replacing ECJ with legally-binding commercial tribunals (even worse, with trade their remit, rather than human, social or environmental need - which is the only reason we have trade).
Northern Ireland no Stormont and popular opinion demanding a border poll... Work of GFA unravelling. Sectarianism rife.
Scotland votes for Indy? Wales moves in that direction.
Another set of housebuilding pledges ignored. Plenty of 'affordable homes' to buy if you earn over £40,000 a year are mobile, and have a car.
Another 50% less bus journeys available, whilst ridership plummets and fares get (even more) astronomical.
Worse of all, continuation of our pathetic action on the most compelling issue for humans - climate change.
Sad for those in England.
Have they been on Mars for the last 3 years . And do they really think Labour voters are going to say , shock horror Corbyns neutral on Brexit I must now vote for Bozo .
To remain neutral is a cop out of a decision he’s either unable or unwilling to make. This is because the man has spent the last 30 years decrying the EU with all the passion he uses for his other pet causes. He is having his hands tied by the membership that put him there and he hates it.
Corbyn is not shy of espousing his other many beliefs, many of which are at the edge of mainstream UK thinking. Yet for some reason he’s remarkably shy of Brexit. Because for perhaps the first time in his political career he’s being forced to adopt a position he disagrees with and there’s nothing he can do about it.
So rather than leading or making a stand he’s running away from the decision.
Point being a PM can’t run away from making decisions no matter how hard or contrary to ones beliefs. The buck stops with them. If he runs away from this, how on earth can he run a country when there’ll be hundreds of decisions to make.
It is like having colonoscopy without sedation, just something to 'get done", though afterwards to find out that it is the first of many...
There’s no ideal option, other than to give up one or the other completely which would inevitably result in electoral disaster. You can try to tell me some other Labour leader would have done better, but I’d be highly sceptical. It’s such a delicate balancing act, and for me Corbyn is doing about as well as is possible in the circumstances.
And by being neutral he can do that will be his argument .
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1198025779688431619?s=20
But Johnson and the Tories have been providing arms to Saudi. To decimate people. Even worse.
And, like Corbyn and co, Johnson and co have kept company with nefarious people at home and abroad.
Two wrongs don't make a right. One bad act doesn't justify another.
But if you're judging decision-makers and/or encouraging people to vote on that basis, compare evenly.
Everyone knows he’s a Eurosceptic and has been dragged towards a second vote . Labour Remainers are willing to put up with this because they will get their second vote .
Just as Leavers are willing to look past Johnson’s many shortcomings Remainers are willing to do the same with Corbyn .
I have nothing against the Lib Dems , and Labour do need them to do well in those Tory Lib Dem marginals but I’ve had deep reservations about their revoke policy from the start .
However I think the most immediate reason now - after three and a half years of delay - to 'get Brexit done' is to avoid a medium term political catastrophe.
Given what has happened over the past three and a half years - where a small band of hardcore Remainers who refuse to respect the result of the referendum have helped to sow enormous distrust and suspicion among Leave voters - I can't see how there is any realistic way that a revocation of Article 50, or a narrow Remain vote in a second referendum, is accepted by a good chunk of the country.
If Brexit does not happen, the most immediate victims will be the Conservatives, who have nailed their colours to the Brexit mast. The Conservatives have pivoted to become the party of Brexit. At some point, either Brexit happens, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, then the party that portrayed itself as the party to deliver Brexit is going to suffer a potentially fatal loss of confidence.
'OK, great,' some people might say, 'the Tories are scum and I'm glad they're no longer seen as a viable political party.' Except the implosion of one half of the political spectrum means there is a huge vacuum. A vacuum that will almost certainly be filled with an extremely unpleasant alternative.
I recognise that avoiding an extremely unpleasant far right uprising in the UK is not a real positive. It would have been far better to avoid that possibility altogether, either by the UK voting to Remain with a huge, unquestionable majority, or with the small band of hardcore Remainers accepting the result and not deepening existing splits in British society. But we are where we are. Either we get this done or we hand the Faragists Britain on a platter.
P.s. I have never voted or contemplated voting or supporting Labour actually. (Despite the colour of my avatar
https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1197987542605467654?s=20
https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1197982631398383616
Swing of 3.5% to the Tories from Labour in Yorkshire and Humber and 4.5% in the North East and 4% in the East Midlands and 8.5% in the North West, though only 0.5% in the West Midlands in the poll taken Thursday and yesterday by Survation.
1) Patel and Raab aren't Prime Ministers. Johnson is PM and, apart from his record on Brexit, is what would be considered a 'social liberal' (voting to repeal Section 28) and an 'economic moderate' (spunking a lot of cash up the wall, to steal a phrase, to win votes). He isn't going to roll back rights, or cut spending even further. I might not personally like what Johnson is doing. But I'd be much less keen on people like him being turfed out and replaced with the Nigel Farages and Anne Widdecombes of the world, who clearly would gut rights and slash spending.
2) Preservation of democratic norms. Hugely important but as we are seeing in the United States easy to lose. If we piss about even more on Brexit, and we allow a resurgent Brexit Party to run rampant amongst a dying Conservative Party, then there is a serious risk that these people could make up a significant opposition block in a future Parliament, or even win enough seats to form a Government. We're already running things close with prorogation, Parliamentary gameplaying and the failure of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act. If the Faragists accumulate enough Parliamentary representation, they could ape the Tea Party in the US, cause Parliamentary chaos, erode the shared democratic norms required to maintain democratic systems, and cultivate deep resentment that further divides British society.
3) Unpredictability of a potential right-wing successor party, and Johnson being, for better or worse, a known quanitity. I would disagree with the assertion that Johnson and Farage are ideologically or practically aligned, because I think there are clear divisions between them on social and economic policy. However, there is no guarantee that a successor to the Conservative Party would be as 'moderate' as Farage. You would be generating huge uncertainty that would easily lead to someone much further to the right reaching critical mass in the British right. Johnson is a known quantity while the alternatives are a leap into the dark.
45% more likely to have voted Labour if Corbyn was not leader, 9% less likely.
Last Survation was Con +14, the one before was Con +6. Survation generally a good pollster for Lab but that changed big time with their last national poll.
So this poll looks pretty much bang on par - which is good for Con given it's largely post Lab manifesto - implying no / little Lab manifesto bounce.
As for individual regions - where are the most marginals?
Con huge swing in North West, but almost no swing in West Midlands.
Overall, reassuring poll for Con after the slightly disappointing Panelbase earlier.
However, on face of it, this looks as if it's arguably the single most important poll of the entire campaign so far because:
- Post Lab manifesto
- Big sample (3,000)
- It's North and Midlands which have higher than average number of Lab marginals so key area for Con gains
Also note BXP quite high at 7% - this area which will have disproportionately high number of BXP candidates - as almost all of South is Con (except London).
IF BXP withdrawals have solidified Con held seats then it's the Lab marginals which are absolutely key.
Though I have noted LDs having a go at other LDs to "stop posting comments that they can use against us", which perhaps points to an elevated self-image for those individuals.
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/defecting-chinese-spy-offers-information-trove-to-australian-government-20191122-p53d1l.html
https://www.theage.com.au/national/peter-hartcher-on-china-s-infiltration-of-australia-20191118-p53bly.html
Bold call on SCons. Feel Boris will suffer some losses.
On Labour seats won - 60 is at the point where Labour's entire election spend on their fire wall has been utterly wasted. The great unknown for me is that next tier of seats beyond, where they have always been Labour and never had to make a meaningful defence since 1987 - or maybe even before. How equipped are they to get out their vote in these seats if Boris actually proves popular? Or Corbyn and his Grand Socialist Plan proves not?
There are 99 Labour seats held with a majority of under 10,000. There are very few of those that at this point can be utterly relaxed about holding their seat. On a really bad night for Labour, their majorities have just stayed home to watch the telly, rather than gone over to Boris. If numbers of them defy tradition and go over to Boris in heavy Leave seats - who knows where their losses might end.
Boris could easily camp his tanks on the lawn of social democracy in the UK.
"How is the audience picked?
The audience will be selected by the Question Time production team to reflect how people in the country have voted. People apply online or by phone and will be asked about their past voting patterns and future voting intentions, whether they're members of political parties, and how they voted in the EU referendum.
The BBC aims to represent audiences across the UK during its election coverage, so while the audience will probably be broadly local to the venue, to ensure there are sufficient supporters of all the parties some will have travelled further."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50462371
I would love the BBC to answer this: how many of that audience voted Leave? They must know. They asked them.
TBH, as a staunch Remainer..... I'm sure we're far, far better off in the EC ....... I suspect we're going to have to jump into the cold water and realise it IS cold and debilitating, rather than energising.
Return rather than Revoke!
Unless, of course, the eleven months from January to December 2020 prove so debilitating that everything collapses.