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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting
I would guess that the vast majority of those who watched the QuestionTime Special had made up their minds about the election before the evening started. But it was an important programme and will almost certainly be the toughest questioning that any of the four will face before December 12th.
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Plenty of tweets and headlines tonight on Corbyn's neutrality on a Brexit referendum.
Unfortunately a short Corbyn premiership is probably necessary in order to get a referendum (and as you essentially note he cannot be as bad as people fear), but its really not much a defence to assume he will be moderated, or that it won't be as bad as people fear. It surely will not, but what does that even matter? Boris won't be as bad as people fear, Brexit won't be as bad as people fear, it doesn't mean people cannot and should not shit a brick at the prospect.
There are people who react to every election victory of their opponents as if it is the end of days, there's really not much special about Boris or Corbyn in that occurring now as well. Claims of bafflement that people do that is just ignoring the many reasons people give, the value judgements they make, even if wrong.
It's not incomprehensible at all, its very comprehensible. What it seems you mean is you disagree with people who hold that level of fear.
Problem is though when Boris was suckered into admitting income tax cut was just two pounds a week it bombed. The whole brexit revolution, radical overspend mood Started by leave in 2016 is not respecting the fiscal conservatism the Tory’s need to come out with.
People should try to keep a sense of proportion, that's all I am saying. A Corbyn government is gong to be akin to the Russian Revolution or the rise of the Nazis.
I don't think we'll be lucky.
And btw, this is not some kind of attmept to suggest one cannot argue one of them is worse than the other, people will disagree on that but clearly its reasonable for people with different values and priorities to measure them up differently. Where I take issue is the idea anyone could genuinely find it incomprehensible, nay, irrational, to fear the government of Boris/Corbyn to the degree people do. People tell us why all the time, and some of the reasons may be based on mistaken facts or impressions, but they are not irrational. That's just a convenient way of not having to argue.
One other thing worth bearing in mind when people inevitably point the past and previous nationalisation programmes, and the rest, is that the world has changed.
If the UK suddenly nationalises huge swathes of the economy, starts effectively confiscating assets, and whacks up taxes, it won't be like the 40s or 50s where other countries were doing similar things. We would be essentially the only major economy doing such things, so comparitively we'd be far further out on a limb than other countries. Businesses, investors, and individuals will have plenty of options to go to elsewhere and build their factories, do their R&D, and work to make themselves better off.
I would also add that at some stage a big swing to left is coming; not this time by the look of it but in May 2024 potentially. So you might as well get used to the idea.
Then, after a further period, when and if the left policies prove not to be a panacea, we'll have another swing back to the right.
Although on the grand scale (centuries) the trend is slowly leftward, I'd say.
Haha yes well, you knew what I meant!
For the avoidance of doubt:
A Corbyn government is notgoing to be akin to the Russian Revolution or the rise of the Nazis.
Anyone who disagrees - feel free to state your reasoning.
What he meant of course was he would never misuse prerogative powers as Johnson had.
What he said was he would abolish elections.
Incidentally I do not expect a Corbyn government to be like War Communism under Lenin. However, there is a distinct possibility their policies would lead to a Venezuela outcome. Indeed, as we have fewer natural resources than Venezuela we are considerably more vulnerable to the graft, greed and mismanagement of Socialism than they are.
It's tribal horseshit, to give us all the false impression our views are more reasonable and, importantly, coherent than they are. We might as call them A or B instead of left and right. We know people change their view of a policy depending if the 'right' side proposes it, so the pretence that left or right are coherent ideologies is also just a way of controlling and manipulating people by predisposing them toward or against something.
Clearly there are ideological positions to take on important policy issues, but I just don't think they can be categorised so simply to allow for identification of global trends on a left/right basis.
A pleasant night to all.
https://twitter.com/IHSMarkitPMI/status/1195175094252974080?s=19
But it's all academic anyway. The Tories will win the election handsomely and it will be full steam ahead for a WTO Brexit in 2021.
https://volunteer.conservatives.com
1. We must be due a recession and it could well be a bad one.
2. Brexit will continue to cause problems for whoever is in power. Agreeing an EU trade deal will not be straightforward.
3. Public services are horribly over-stretched right now and that will take a lot of time and money to sort out.
We could do with radical reshaping of economy and society, but none of our politicians have the least idea how to do it. Ultimately climate change will probably force it on them, but it’s unlikely any existing party or possibly system of government will survive the trauma.
https://volunteer.labour.org.uk
She’s the kind of woman who might be a passionate Corbynite or XR-er if she were British
She fears, despises and loathes Corbyn. Because her family (not posh) suffered so much under Chavez. Including rape and death. Her Venezuelan husband encountered Corbyn on a train a few weeks go, and he went up to Jeremy to have words. Jeremy shrank away.
We need to listen to the Venezuelan people, not to Jeremy and his pals.
The unconditional Revoke policy was an unforced error, but in isolation I don't think it was too serious, as I said at the time. It would have been easy to spin it subsequently as a distant aspiration given that everyone knows they haven't got a chance of a majority, and thereby to focus on the real option they might potentially have, which is to support a second referendum.
However, they then made the second mistake, of pushing the ridiculous line that Jo Swinson seriously thought she might be PM in a few weeks' time. That compounded the first error by making it look as though they meant unconditional Revoke as a serious policy rather than as a distant aspiration. It also made them look as though they were peddling as much fantasy as Corbyn and Boris are, thereby destroying their huge potential USP of being the only sane game in town.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/its-insulting-peoples-intelligence-the-government-is-paying-so-we-are-its-so-overwhelming-i-feel-quite-sick-my-election-focus-groups-in-alyn-deeside-wrexha/
The LibDems really needed to get a committee of pb.com members to "guide" them.
Have you read it?
And are you interested in this bridge I have for sale?
And on that note of exasperation, good night.
All of which is yet another reason not to vote for Jeremy. He wants to equip us to function decently, if poorly, as an egalitarian country facing the 1970s.
We face the 2070s. He’s a fucking century out of date.
Now that would be radical, green and sustainable. We might drop down the GDP tables, or we might not.
Pretend competition in natural monopolies combined with the necessary intense regulation and, often, subsidisation, is unfairly distorted towards the enrichment of private shareholders.
http://hurryupharry.org/2019/11/22/no-free-lunch/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lord-buckethead-count-binface-uxbridge-south-ruislip-general-election-boris-johnson-a9204681.html
There are many things that are cachectic after a decade of austerity, which carried on 5 years too long, but spending money on nationalising snail mail is a daft priority. Social Care, Mental Health, and Environment all should also be ahead in that queue.
On top of the eye watering amount to do so (if we really believe Marxist McDonnell will pay fair market rate), there will also be automatic 5%+ payrises, much bigger pensions and benefits pot that the state has to pay for.
I’m a staunch Labour Remainer and could care less if Corbyn remains neutral , indeed I welcome it .
The result of having to pander to Labours corrupt, outdated, Regressive, undemocratic Union paymasters.
Say it soft and it’s almost like praying
WE ❤ CHOCOLATE HOBNOBS
Shareholders speculate and risk in return for potential profit. The risks they take in public utilities are clearly different then, say, funding a manufacturing/PR company.