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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown

Political Betting doesn’t often discuss exhibitions of 18th century art, but I can highly recommend the Hogarth exhibition currently showing at the commendably eccentric Soane Museum in London. It is a very rare opportunity to see in one place all of Hogarth’s masterly sequences of ‘Modern Moral Subjects’, including A Rake’s Progress, A Harlot’s Progress, and Marriage A-La-Mode.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Excellent stuff.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Great article. Thanks Richard.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    edited November 2019
    First like Diane Abbott :wink:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Fun post! A welcome relief.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    More taxes incoming with labour ?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680077/Labours-eco-war-drivers-Jeremy-Corbyns-plan-force-60-cent-drop-motorists-mileage.html

    Edit: Interesting quote from the err 'left' contained within:

    Labour's net 2030 policy has also been criticised as 'unachievable' by its own trade union supporters, who have warned it would mean petrol cars being 'confiscated'.
    The GMB union said the target 'threatens whole communities' and would mean families taking 'only one flight every five years'.
    The union's leader, Tim Roache, wrote: 'We believe it would mean within the next decade a series of measures such as the confiscation of petrol cars....it will put entire industries and the jobs they produced in peril.' !

    Well my one flight would be out of Britain...

    The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
    Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    McIRA has been banging on about how good the internet is in South Korea....

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1195314862739595269?s=20
  • Top header. I saw some Hogarth at exhibition way back in around 2005. Excellent.
  • Crackpot Communism is a good line from Johnson.

    Expect to see this repeated endlessly from now on.
  • Mr. Urquhart, I find it hard to believe that Commissar McDonnell would tell an untruth.

    Please report to your local re-education camp for a state-funded kneecapping.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH
  • Pulpstar said:

    More taxes incoming with labour ?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680077/Labours-eco-war-drivers-Jeremy-Corbyns-plan-force-60-cent-drop-motorists-mileage.html

    Edit: Interesting quote from the err 'left' contained within:

    Labour's net 2030 policy has also been criticised as 'unachievable' by its own trade union supporters, who have warned it would mean petrol cars being 'confiscated'.
    The GMB union said the target 'threatens whole communities' and would mean families taking 'only one flight every five years'.
    The union's leader, Tim Roache, wrote: 'We believe it would mean within the next decade a series of measures such as the confiscation of petrol cars....it will put entire industries and the jobs they produced in peril.' !

    Well my one flight would be out of Britain...

    The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
    Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
    Forget a tax bombshell, this would be a tax nuclear device to pay for Corb's socialist fantasies.
  • I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Pulpstar said:

    More taxes incoming with labour ?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680077/Labours-eco-war-drivers-Jeremy-Corbyns-plan-force-60-cent-drop-motorists-mileage.html

    Edit: Interesting quote from the err 'left' contained within:

    Labour's net 2030 policy has also been criticised as 'unachievable' by its own trade union supporters, who have warned it would mean petrol cars being 'confiscated'.
    The GMB union said the target 'threatens whole communities' and would mean families taking 'only one flight every five years'.
    The union's leader, Tim Roache, wrote: 'We believe it would mean within the next decade a series of measures such as the confiscation of petrol cars....it will put entire industries and the jobs they produced in peril.' !

    Well my one flight would be out of Britain...

    The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
    Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
    Forget a tax bombshell, this would be a tax nuclear device to pay for Corb's socialist fantasies.
    Tax Death Star? Paging Sunil!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    edited November 2019

    McIRA has been banging on about how good the internet is in South Korea....

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1195314862739595269?s=20

    If Corbyn gets in the question won't be how the internet access is in wicked capitalist South Korea; we will need to know how the internet project is getting on in the glorious socialist paradise of North Korea.

  • McIRA has been banging on about how good the internet is in South Korea....

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1195314862739595269?s=20

    probably ain't so good in North Korea perhaps? ;)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited November 2019

    McIRA has been banging on about how good the internet is in South Korea....

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1195314862739595269?s=20

    Johnny Mac may have got South Korea and North Korea mixed up... ;)

    Oh and nice thread header Mr Nabavi :)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    While the FT, Independent, Guardian, Mirror and Morning Star give Boris a free ride?

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    It's interesting - though a bit depressing - to reflect that politicalbetting.com used to be a good place to find informed comment relevant to political betting.
  • I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    If it were personal abuse that would be lamentable. The reality is that if you come up with cretinous plans, be prepared to have it pointed out they are cretinous.

    If people who support Labour want better scrutiny of this terrible government led by a totally unsuitable individual, pull yourselves together, ditch Mr. Thicky and move back to being a credible party of government instead of a bunch of poundshop Marxists.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited November 2019
    In an audacious gambit to turn the student vote out John McDonnell is going to announce this evening free beer for students on campus at universities and the creation of de-criminalised drug zones with purity checking devices:

    https://news.sky.com/politics901876
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Crackpot Communism is a good line from Johnson.

    Oscar Wilde, eat your heart out, innit?
  • Great article Richard. Hogarth is a big favourite of mine so will try hard to get to the exhibition.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    It's all going a bit Not 2017!
  • Funny, I'd have thought that if 18th century art and political betting were ever to cross over, it would be in Gainsborough.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Yes - in the glorious socialist republic only positive stories of our dear leader will be allowed.
  • RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Fab

    Last 10 days better for Boris than May.

    Next 10 days clearly very important

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    Who is their Glorious Leader?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Pulpstar said:

    More taxes incoming with labour ?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680077/Labours-eco-war-drivers-Jeremy-Corbyns-plan-force-60-cent-drop-motorists-mileage.html

    Edit: Interesting quote from the err 'left' contained within:

    Labour's net 2030 policy has also been criticised as 'unachievable' by its own trade union supporters, who have warned it would mean petrol cars being 'confiscated'.
    The GMB union said the target 'threatens whole communities' and would mean families taking 'only one flight every five years'.
    The union's leader, Tim Roache, wrote: 'We believe it would mean within the next decade a series of measures such as the confiscation of petrol cars....it will put entire industries and the jobs they produced in peril.' !

    Well my one flight would be out of Britain...

    The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
    Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
    But nooooo, Labour plans are fine and costed whereas Brexit will be a disaster.

    La la Labour indeed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Chris said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    It's interesting - though a bit depressing - to reflect that politicalbetting.com used to be a good place to find informed comment relevant to political betting.
    But you don't like my reports from the doorsteps.....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Chris said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    It's interesting - though a bit depressing - to reflect that politicalbetting.com used to be a good place to find informed comment relevant to political betting.
    It still is, and also good for having a good old snipe at the complete morons running our parties these days. I mean you could have a very dry blog with tips from 'accredited sources', or you can glean info from what people have to say amidst the banter.
    You'd have made money if you'd followed my tips on cricket and certain seats at the last GE. You'd certainly have had a sense of what was going to happen in Norfolk and parts of Scotland.
    And, as a bonus, you learn that magic G is a repulsive old commie
  • Chris said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    It's interesting - though a bit depressing - to reflect that politicalbetting.com used to be a good place to find informed comment relevant to political betting.
    It still is, and also good for having a good old snipe at the complete morons running our parties these days. I mean you could have a very dry blog with tips from 'accredited sources', or you can glean info from what people have to say amidst the banter.
    You'd have made money if you'd followed my tips on cricket and certain seats at the last GE. You'd certainly have had a sense of what was going to happen in Norfolk and parts of Scotland.
    And, as a bonus, you learn that magic G is a repulsive old commie
    I don't think we agree on Brexit, but your last line is very amusing. Bravo!
  • RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Fab

    Last 10 days better for Boris than May.

    Next 10 days clearly very important

    Will no one spare a thought for us poor buggers who backed a Labour majority at thirty odd to one and thought “that’ll come in”?
  • Excellent piece, Richard. One of your best.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    ‘He put the milk in before taking the teabag out!’, ‘He’s a proper nutcase’, ‘Who’s going to pay me for a four-day week?’ My election focus groups in Stoke, Bolton and West Brom

    This week we have visited three Labour-held, Leave-voting seats of the kind the Conservatives are looking to regain in their quest for a majority: Stoke-on-Trent North, Bolton North East, and the seat held until recently by Labour’s deputy leader, West Bromwich East.

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/he-put-the-milk-in-before-taking-the-teabag-out-hes-a-proper-nutcase-whos-going-to-pay-me-for-a-four-day-week-my-election-focus-groups-in-stoke-bolton-and-west-brom-2/

    I know this is Labour seats, but it doesn't read well for the Tories. A lot of Corbyn policies are bonkers, but ahh f##k it whats the worst that could happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.

    These comments are pretty funny - Corbyn is vanilla and Boris is raspberry ripple!
    Swinson would spend Friday night in nice restaurant made of recycled paper.

    What I think it does show is that if the Tories could come up with something to neutralise the privatise the NHS stuff they might be able to move some people to them. I don’t think for one second that they are planning to privatise it but if they could come up with a charter or commitment to free at the point of use system for all British citizens then it would go alongside their funding announcements. They could even put any questions off for a generation by linking it to the 100th anniversary and putting in strategic goals in that period. Developing 5g health care at scale

    The other thing I think they should do is take a greater role is building new social housing and linking right to buy to the age of the property, that is discounts on older housing stock that may need upgrading are higher and new stock less, but still available. Also regional discounts related to demand so if you have social housing in London you will get less of a discount than an area with less housing demand for example Hartlepool.

    You can imagine the bus being more popular if it said get Brexit done so we can support the 30 year plan for the NHS, or get Brexit done for the New Right to Buy.


  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    Who is their Glorious Leader?
    I'd say Chuka but 1) not sure he will get in and 2) not sure he has the stomach given his bottling the labour race.
    Berger would be a good choice if she got in, if not Cooper possibly but she is a little acidic
    So theyll go for Hilary Benn
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Fab

    Last 10 days better for Boris than May.

    Next 10 days clearly very important

    Will no one spare a thought for us poor buggers who backed a Labour majority at thirty odd to one and thought “that’ll come in”?
    It still might. Top up.....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7689665/How-busy-E-Local-statistics-hospitals-struggling-cope.html

    This is an interesting article because it lists all of the NHS Trusts performance for the 4 hour A&E target (England only).

    I had always thought that part of the issue would be attracting staff to undesirable or expensive areas to live. This list seems not to correlate with that so perhaps it is bad management.
  • Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    More taxes incoming with labour ?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680077/Labours-eco-war-drivers-Jeremy-Corbyns-plan-force-60-cent-drop-motorists-mileage.html

    Edit: Interesting quote from the err 'left' contained within:

    Labour's net 2030 policy has also been criticised as 'unachievable' by its own trade union supporters, who have warned it would mean petrol cars being 'confiscated'.
    The GMB union said the target 'threatens whole communities' and would mean families taking 'only one flight every five years'.
    The union's leader, Tim Roache, wrote: 'We believe it would mean within the next decade a series of measures such as the confiscation of petrol cars....it will put entire industries and the jobs they produced in peril.' !

    Well my one flight would be out of Britain...

    The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
    Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
    But nooooo, Labour plans are fine and costed whereas Brexit will be a disaster.

    La la Labour indeed
    Does your nom de plume mean you change votes sometimes? Your opinion don't suggest a floating voter. What else might it mean?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Great thread and thanks for the link to the Hogarth..
  • Chris said:

    Crackpot Communism is a good line from Johnson.

    Oscar Wilde, eat your heart out, innit?
    Gratuitous abuse is the new witty repartee, apparently.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019

    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Fab

    Last 10 days better for Boris than May.

    Next 10 days clearly very important

    Will no one spare a thought for us poor buggers who backed a Labour majority at thirty odd to one and thought “that’ll come in”?
    It still might. Top up.....
    All joking aside, I am thinking about it. I can see quite a few upsides for Corbyn in the debates and some volatile polls (and a volatile market) just after. My thinking is I’d rather go into that in this position.
  • Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    More taxes incoming with labour ?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680077/Labours-eco-war-drivers-Jeremy-Corbyns-plan-force-60-cent-drop-motorists-mileage.html

    Edit: Interesting quote from the err 'left' contained within:

    Labour's net 2030 policy has also been criticised as 'unachievable' by its own trade union supporters, who have warned it would mean petrol cars being 'confiscated'.
    The GMB union said the target 'threatens whole communities' and would mean families taking 'only one flight every five years'.
    The union's leader, Tim Roache, wrote: 'We believe it would mean within the next decade a series of measures such as the confiscation of petrol cars....it will put entire industries and the jobs they produced in peril.' !

    Well my one flight would be out of Britain...

    The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
    Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
    But nooooo, Labour plans are fine and costed whereas Brexit will be a disaster.

    La la Labour indeed
    Does your nom de plume mean you change votes sometimes? Your opinion don't suggest a floating voter. What else might it mean?
    Sorry opinionS in the plural, otherwise that sentence sounds a bit Norfolk!
  • I don't know art but I know what I like - used to have Gin Lane as my PC background when I worked in Shipley.

    Nice thread - Is Nabavi voting tory though; that's what I want to know.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Chris said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    It's interesting - though a bit depressing - to reflect that politicalbetting.com used to be a good place to find informed comment relevant to political betting.
    It still is, and also good for having a good old snipe at the complete morons running our parties these days. I mean you could have a very dry blog with tips from 'accredited sources', or you can glean info from what people have to say amidst the banter.
    You'd have made money if you'd followed my tips on cricket and certain seats at the last GE. You'd certainly have had a sense of what was going to happen in Norfolk and parts of Scotland.
    And, as a bonus, you learn that magic G is a repulsive old commie
    I don't think we agree on Brexit, but your last line is very amusing. Bravo!
    I did stand up a few times. It didn't go very well.
    But Brexit and Boris have made Dave Allen's of us all
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    Who is their Glorious Leader?
    I'd say Chuka but 1) not sure he will get in and 2) not sure he has the stomach given his bottling the labour race.
    Berger would be a good choice if she got in, if not Cooper possibly but she is a little acidic
    So theyll go for Hilary Benn
    I'd be happy with that. Odd that he is Tony's son and considered a moderate!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    More taxes incoming with labour ?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680077/Labours-eco-war-drivers-Jeremy-Corbyns-plan-force-60-cent-drop-motorists-mileage.html

    Edit: Interesting quote from the err 'left' contained within:

    Labour's net 2030 policy has also been criticised as 'unachievable' by its own trade union supporters, who have warned it would mean petrol cars being 'confiscated'.
    The GMB union said the target 'threatens whole communities' and would mean families taking 'only one flight every five years'.
    The union's leader, Tim Roache, wrote: 'We believe it would mean within the next decade a series of measures such as the confiscation of petrol cars....it will put entire industries and the jobs they produced in peril.' !

    Well my one flight would be out of Britain...

    The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
    Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
    But nooooo, Labour plans are fine and costed whereas Brexit will be a disaster.

    La la Labour indeed
    Does your nom de plume mean you change votes sometimes? Your opinion don't suggest a floating voter. What else might it mean?
    Sorry opinionS in the plural, otherwise that sentence sounds a bit Norfolk!
    That do sound a bit Nodge and Norf.
  • Test
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Test

    Welcome!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    Who is their Glorious Leader?
    I'd say Chuka but 1) not sure he will get in and 2) not sure he has the stomach given his bottling the labour race.
    Berger would be a good choice if she got in, if not Cooper possibly but she is a little acidic
    So theyll go for Hilary Benn
    I'd be happy with that. Odd that he is Tony's son and considered a moderate!
    He will (in my opinion) be a far more interesting character once Brexit is completed. He is very clever, steady and speaks with clarity.
  • Chris said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    It's interesting - though a bit depressing - to reflect that politicalbetting.com used to be a good place to find informed comment relevant to political betting.
    It still is, and also good for having a good old snipe at the complete morons running our parties these days. I mean you could have a very dry blog with tips from 'accredited sources', or you can glean info from what people have to say amidst the banter.
    You'd have made money if you'd followed my tips on cricket and certain seats at the last GE. You'd certainly have had a sense of what was going to happen in Norfolk and parts of Scotland.
    And, as a bonus, you learn that magic G is a repulsive old commie
    I don't think we agree on Brexit, but your last line is very amusing. Bravo!
    I did stand up a few times. It didn't go very well.
    But Brexit and Boris have made Dave Allen's of us all
    As Bob Monkhouse once said, "when I said I was going to be a comedian everyone laughed. Well they are not laughing now!"
  • Test

    Great first post!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Crackpot Communism is a good line from Johnson.

    Oscar Wilde, eat your heart out, innit?
    Gratuitous abuse is the new witty repartee, apparently.
    So it seems. But seriously, why should anyone want to spend time reading through all this stuff?

    One used to be able to glean useful information here. Now it seems to be a refuge for people with nothing better to do with their time than post ridiculously partisan nonsense. One can read that in reams on numberless websites.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Chris said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    It's interesting - though a bit depressing - to reflect that politicalbetting.com used to be a good place to find informed comment relevant to political betting.
    It still is, and also good for having a good old snipe at the complete morons running our parties these days. I mean you could have a very dry blog with tips from 'accredited sources', or you can glean info from what people have to say amidst the banter.
    You'd have made money if you'd followed my tips on cricket and certain seats at the last GE. You'd certainly have had a sense of what was going to happen in Norfolk and parts of Scotland.
    And, as a bonus, you learn that magic G is a repulsive old commie
    I don't think we agree on Brexit, but your last line is very amusing. Bravo!
    I did stand up a few times. It didn't go very well.
    But Brexit and Boris have made Dave Allen's of us all
    As Bob Monkhouse once said, "when I said I was going to be a comedian everyone laughed. Well they are not laughing now!"
    Apposite
  • RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Nicely done. Thanks Rob
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    What has struck me most about this campaign so far is the way the Tories (and the msm) have really got stuck in to Labour.

    And the online Tory campaign by whoever is running it is a mile ahead of 2 years ago.

    I do wonder if May deliberately ran such an awful campaign because you'd have struggled to make it worse if the brief was actually to make it a disaster.
  • Chris said:

    Crackpot Communism is a good line from Johnson.

    Oscar Wilde, eat your heart out, innit?
    Gratuitous abuse is the new witty repartee, apparently.
    When was gratuitous abuse used? Have I missed Johnson calling Corbyn a thick twat, or did Corbyn call Johnson a fat lying philandering misogynistic lazy pustule? That would certainly hot things up a bit.
  • I don't know art but I know what I like - used to have Gin Lane as my PC background when I worked in Shipley.

    Nice thread - Is Nabavi voting tory though; that's what I want to know.

    I suspect he will be voting Tory, but not for the conservative party.
  • RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Interesting graphics. I wonder if the black line and black dotted line will have crossover in about 10 days time?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Great article thanks Richard I'll try to get along and take a look.

    Just one thing, which is that by the end of next year we will have something. It won't, as you say, be anywhere near a Free Trade Deal, of course not. It will be called EC/914/2020/GB01 and the EU will say it is a good agreement as a basis for going forward and BoJo will say that it prepares the way for us actually to leave and it will satisfy most people (Nige excepted, obvs) and see us into another five years of rounds of negotiation before we actually leave or it might just replicate every single element of EU membership if we do "leave" and we'll all move on (Nige excepted, obvs).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    SunnyJim said:



    I do wonder if May deliberately ran such an awful campaign because you'd have struggled to make it worse if the brief was actually to make it a disaster.

    I've always been "suspicious" about the 2017 Conservative campaign... ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Excellent piece, Richard. One of your best.

    PB is having an excellent election.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
    That's my point though, 25 seats and they are in perennial third/fourth party territory. Do they want to govern in their own right? They never will as the LD party
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Chris said:

    Crackpot Communism is a good line from Johnson.

    Oscar Wilde, eat your heart out, innit?
    Crackpot communism, Commie Cable. Who is he talking to. Tories on a bubble Response from Boris campaign and PB Tories today has been atrocious. I’m going to have to Egg fry you.

    Labour are trying to justifying it by comparing global Britain with what rest of the world got and how it got there. This is toxic grenade into this election, not throwback to the past easily laughed at, because its global Britain, also 97% sounds pretty inclusive, no one left behind in those left behind communities, and take back control laced through it too. They are relating it to now and tomorrow, not 1983 or Stalinist Russia. So it really does need to be better attacked than this, else voters in Labour marginals could see it as a project to improve competitiveness and productivity of the nation as well as free money each month equal to a nice taxcut.

    This is how to attack it. With more precision.

    1. Labour claim other countries like south Korea done this same policy get it up to 97%. Japan 97% too, and Scandinavia and Ireland copying the South Korea example? Labours legitimising needs to be exposed as a lie or else in many voters heads all the attacking is attacking capitalist country’s like ours where this actually worked. So just a lot of fake news on costs and calling it commie cable a good enough response if that’s what voters thinking? one of the weaknesses of the project fear on costs is when policies are going to spend over 2 or 3 parliaments, like how Labour tried and failed attack totalling up cost of 40 hospitals, when Boris commitment is only 6 in first term.

    2. A strong line of attack on it is a government run broadband service snooping. Not Commie Cable. KGB cable. KGB CABLE. Jeez, don’t you know what really worry’s the British public?

    The undertone here from Labour is clear, our free market laisse faire capitalism has got us up to 10% at snails pace hence we are struggling to be competitive in the productivity tables, and consumers being ripped off in rip off Britain. They have chosen this hill to fight on, the blanket bombing from Boris and PB Tories rather than incisive strikes on this policy is proving how the Americans managed to lose in Vietnam.

    Shockingly bad day for Tories today. There’s a stench of complacency Sharpen up!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Interesting graphics. I wonder if the black line and black dotted line will have crossover in about 10 days time?
    That would be a crossover I can get behind. :p
  • rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
    Interesting that she is also the only non-English leader of one of the main national parties, making her genuinely unionist. Could be important, or maybe not
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    Problem is the Tories and their friends in the tabloids have been screaming that Labour leaders are "commies" for as long as I can remember. Even innocuous old Ed M was "Red-Ed".

    This time they may have a point but many non-Tories are simply going to think we've heard it all before. The boy who cried wolf and all that.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2019
    SunnyJim said:

    What has struck me most about this campaign so far is the way the Tories (and the msm) have really got stuck in to Labour.

    And the online Tory campaign by whoever is running it is a mile ahead of 2 years ago.

    I do wonder if May deliberately ran such an awful campaign because you'd have struggled to make it worse if the brief was actually to make it a disaster.

    The blue team's improvement could be my fault. I said on pb it was Lynton Crosby who'd stuffed 2017 up, not Nick and Fiona. And lo, now CCHQ has now hired Isaac from down under, and he has brought in a New Zealand team for the online campaign.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-the-conservative-general-election-campaign-2pzwnz9tt
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited November 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    SunnyJim said:



    I do wonder if May deliberately ran such an awful campaign because you'd have struggled to make it worse if the brief was actually to make it a disaster.

    I've always been "suspicious" about the 2017 Conservative campaign... ;)
    "Remainer May threw away the majority" tinfoil hats are available in the pb.com gift shop.
  • rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
    Jo's seat looks [for a Scottish seat] to be reasonably safe. No challenge from Tories/Labour, the SNP fallen a fair bit behind and party leader bonus should be sufficient surely to see Jo home?
  • I don't know art but I know what I like - used to have Gin Lane as my PC background when I worked in Shipley.

    Nice thread - Is Nabavi voting tory though; that's what I want to know.

    I suspect he will be voting Tory, but not for the conservative party.
    I don't really get this - too clever. I'm hardly a small c conservative and will be posting my 2014 (I missed the deadline) manifesto on here in the coming days. It's got some corkers!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    That's not going to help my insomnia.


  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto

    The longest suicide note in history? Or the second longest? ;)
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    Who is their Glorious Leader?
    I'd say Chuka but 1) not sure he will get in and 2) not sure he has the stomach given his bottling the labour race.
    Berger would be a good choice if she got in, if not Cooper possibly but she is a little acidic
    So theyll go for Hilary Benn
    I'd be happy with that. Odd that he is Tony's son and considered a moderate!
    He will (in my opinion) be a far more interesting character once Brexit is completed. He is very clever, steady and speaks with clarity.
    I think he is probably the wrong sex to be the next leader of the Labour Party, unless he/they declares himself/themself non-binary.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto

    That sound your hear is chainsaws hacking away at the money tree plantation....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    OllyT said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    Problem is the Tories and their friends in the tabloids have been screaming that Labour leaders are "commies" for as long as I can remember. Even innocuous old Ed M was "Red-Ed".

    This time they may have a point but many non-Tories are simply going to think we've heard it all before. The boy who cried wolf and all that.
    which goes both ways. The old 'tories want to privatise the NHS' nonsense
    We become inured. But that doesn't make him any less repulsive or communist leaning
  • Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto

    That sound your hear is chainsaws hacking away at the money tree plantation....
    Has Boris left any money trees standing?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
    Jo's seat looks [for a Scottish seat] to be reasonably safe. No challenge from Tories/Labour, the SNP fallen a fair bit behind and party leader bonus should be sufficient surely to see Jo home?
    Should be but she wont get as much help from Tory switchers this time
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto

    That sound your hear is chainsaws hacking away at the money tree plantation....
    Has Boris left any money trees standing?
    Still forests of them.

    But McDonnell is going to nationalise them. Without compensation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Interesting graphics. I wonder if the black line and black dotted line will have crossover in about 10 days time?
    The one thing that should really worry the Labour Party is that, while they've squeezed the Greens, and grabbed some votes from BXP, the LDs aren't budging on 15-17%. After their initial drop, they've held that level without any real movement. Sure, there's been a +1 here and a -1 there, but all in the 15-17% range.

    Now, it's possible that the squeeze will start next week. But right now, it's just not happening. And if it doesn't happen, I don't see how the Labour Party get more than 32-33%, and therefore I don't see how the Conservatives end up with less than 50 seat majority. (And probably more like 70-100)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    That's not going to help my insomnia.


    I might update it daily, just for you. :p
  • GIN1138 said:

    SunnyJim said:



    I do wonder if May deliberately ran such an awful campaign because you'd have struggled to make it worse if the brief was actually to make it a disaster.

    I've always been "suspicious" about the 2017 Conservative campaign... ;)
    "Remainer May threw away the majority" tinfoil hats are available in the pb.com gift shop.
    She must've been dead cunning to manage that so perfectly. I think the "fields of wheat" thing was pure genius, all while giving the impression she wanted to win!

    On another subject, has anyone got their Zombie Attack action plan sorted out, and does anyone else agree that in fact, Boris Johnson is one of the lizard people?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
    That's my point though, 25 seats and they are in perennial third/fourth party territory. Do they want to govern in their own right? They never will as the LD party
    I can't really concieve, though, of how they could have done much better (especially in the context of choosing Farron in 2015) post the coalition.

    To have got back into the mid-teens, and then to refresh their MP and councillor base and to have gotten more MPs than achieved at any time other than the 13 year period between 1997 and 2010, all within four years. I think that's - objectively - a good performance. Time will tell if they can go further.
  • Thanks for the comments!

    If you want to go this exhibition, you need to book a timed slot (it's free). It's a rather cramped space so try to go at a less busy time; I usually find the first slot in the morning is good for exhibitions if you can make that. The staff are very helpful and can point out some of the extraordinary details in these paintings and engravings.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    I updated the PB poll tracker - now with a 7 day moving average, and a lead comparison. Will the 2017 and 2019 Labour tracks diverge? :o

    https://imgur.com/HISAOZH

    Interesting graphics. I wonder if the black line and black dotted line will have crossover in about 10 days time?
    The one thing that should really worry the Labour Party is that, while they've squeezed the Greens, and grabbed some votes from BXP, the LDs aren't budging on 15-17%. After their initial drop, they've held that level without any real movement. Sure, there's been a +1 here and a -1 there, but all in the 15-17% range.

    Now, it's possible that the squeeze will start next week. But right now, it's just not happening. And if it doesn't happen, I don't see how the Labour Party get more than 32-33%, and therefore I don't see how the Conservatives end up with less than 50 seat majority. (And probably more like 70-100)
    How many labour members answering Lib Dem to the pollsters because that’s what to vote in Cheltenham, Wells, st ives and another 100 seats? Because of this I can’t see Labour getting within 7 in polls even though the anti Tory vote is there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or does the new intake push them towards some sort of new centrist alliance with the Watsonish Scooby Gang of Labour sidelining the discredited Trots and Monentumites? A Tory, Centrists, Free Owl and Party Loyalty set up for the next GE with Centrists doing a Blair 97?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
    Jo's seat looks [for a Scottish seat] to be reasonably safe. No challenge from Tories/Labour, the SNP fallen a fair bit behind and party leader bonus should be sufficient surely to see Jo home?
    One would have thought so. But she may lose some of her Unionist but Brexit tactical voters this time around. (And there are quite a lot of those in Scotland.) The SNP is picking up votes from Labour.

    So, I think she'll hold it. But it's far from inconceivable that she'll be out on her ear.
  • OllyT said:

    I wonder how Johnson would be doing if he was subjected to the same level of abuse from the right wing press as is doled out to Corbyn.

    Lol. Magic grandpa getting heat from the press. Well deserved, repulsive old commie
    Problem is the Tories and their friends in the tabloids have been screaming that Labour leaders are "commies" for as long as I can remember. Even innocuous old Ed M was "Red-Ed".

    This time they may have a point but many non-Tories are simply going to think we've heard it all before. The boy who cried wolf and all that.
    I think most people, including moderate Labour voters, can see Corbyn for what he is; a not very bright contrarian lefty, with the views and political understanding of a sixth form college common room bore. He is a disaster, not just for the labour party, but for the country as a whole as he is completely letting a very bad PM off the hook.
  • I don't know art but I know what I like - used to have Gin Lane as my PC background when I worked in Shipley.

    Nice thread - Is Nabavi voting tory though; that's what I want to know.

    I suspect he will be voting Tory, but not for the conservative party.
    I don't really get this - too clever. I'm hardly a small c conservative and will be posting my 2014 (I missed the deadline) manifesto on here in the coming days. It's got some corkers!
    Richard left the Conservative Party because it was no longer a conservative party.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto

    That sound your hear is chainsaws hacking away at the money tree plantation....
    If it’s more expensive than Tory manifesto, but clearly and honestly costed like last time Whilst Tory manifesto vague on how much borrowing, tax increases and cuts pay for it, that’s extra votes for Labour isn’t it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Thanks for the comments!

    If you want to go this exhibition, you need to book a timed slot (it's free). It's a rather cramped space so try to go at a less busy time; I usually find the first slot in the morning is good for exhibitions if you can make that. The staff are very helpful and can point out some of the extraordinary details in these paintings and engravings.

    Thanks for the header, Richard!
  • I don't know art but I know what I like - used to have Gin Lane as my PC background when I worked in Shipley.

    Nice thread - Is Nabavi voting tory though; that's what I want to know.

    I suspect he will be voting Tory, but not for the conservative party.
    I don't really get this - too clever. I'm hardly a small c conservative and will be posting my 2014 (I missed the deadline) manifesto on here in the coming days. It's got some corkers!
    Richard left the Conservative Party because it was no longer a conservative party.
    As many of us have. How that will translate to votes at the GE is anyone's guess.
  • Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto

    So we get the leaked version this evening?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    Roger Stone has been found guilty....

    Donald Trump's former adviser Roger Stone has been found guilty on all seven counts of obstruction, witness tampering and lying to Congress.

    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-trump-adviser-roger-stone-convicted-of-lying-and-obstruction-11862187
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.

    d as some on here seem to want and actually relish?

    The question is whither the centrists? If the LDs end up on 25 say, do they plod along waiting for next time with Jolly Jo or ?
    You say "plod along", but 25 seats is a remarkable recovery for the LibDems. It's more than they got at any post-war election pre-1997, including anything achieved as the Alliance. And to get there within five years of getting almost completely wiped out.

    If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.

    Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.

    Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
    That's my point though, 25 seats and they are in perennial third/fourth party territory. Do they want to govern in their own right? They never will as the LD party
    I can't really concieve, though, of how they could have done much better (especially in the context of choosing Farron in 2015) post the coalition.

    To have got back into the mid-teens, and then to refresh their MP and councillor base and to have gotten more MPs than achieved at any time other than the 13 year period between 1997 and 2010, all within four years. I think that's - objectively - a good performance. Time will tell if they can go further.
    I take your point but the LD party is changing, the members are not the old sandalistas brigade, new socio economic thought is coming in from left and right, the liberal tradition is being replaced by social democracy and one nationism. This is an opportunity to build a coalition/new party of government if they grasp it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    egg said:

    Labour meet at 10am tomortow to finalize the manifesto

    That sound your hear is chainsaws hacking away at the money tree plantation....
    If it’s more expensive than Tory manifesto, but clearly and honestly costed like last time Whilst Tory manifesto vague on how much borrowing, tax increases and cuts pay for it, that’s extra votes for Labour isn’t it?
    "clearly and honestly" doing some mighty heavy lifting there....
  • Thanks for the graphs RobD. They don't even show the full scale of 2017 though as the final result was much closer than even the polls were showing. Is there any chance to show the actual result on the graphs which will show how far Labour actually have to go to match 2017? Thanks.
This discussion has been closed.