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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown
Political Betting doesn’t often discuss exhibitions of 18th century art, but I can highly recommend the Hogarth exhibition currently showing at the commendably eccentric Soane Museum in London. It is a very rare opportunity to see in one place all of Hogarth’s masterly sequences of ‘Modern Moral Subjects’, including A Rake’s Progress, A Harlot’s Progress, and Marriage A-La-Mode.
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The document proposes 'demand management' to force a 'large and rapid' drop in car use.
Again, not scary at all....Stealing companies, restricting movement of citizens, have the state control your internet (and be able to see what you do with)....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1195314862739595269?s=20
Expect to see this repeated endlessly from now on.
Please report to your local re-education camp for a state-funded kneecapping.
https://imgur.com/HISAOZH
Yet as Lewis Goodall has asserted and Marquee Mark has confirmed, there is no real enthusiasm for Boris Johnson or his ideas which makes me think he will be in his mid-term trough very quickly next year as Brexit doesn't fade away as so many hope and believe.
As for Labour, sub 200 will mean the end for Corbyn but will there be an orderly transition to a Corbyn-ite who will begin the Party's long journey back to being a credible alternative Government or will we see an all-out internal feud as some on here seem to want and actually relish?
Oh and nice thread header Mr Nabavi
If people who support Labour want better scrutiny of this terrible government led by a totally unsuitable individual, pull yourselves together, ditch Mr. Thicky and move back to being a credible party of government instead of a bunch of poundshop Marxists.
https://news.sky.com/politics901876
Last 10 days better for Boris than May.
Next 10 days clearly very important
La la Labour indeed
You'd have made money if you'd followed my tips on cricket and certain seats at the last GE. You'd certainly have had a sense of what was going to happen in Norfolk and parts of Scotland.
And, as a bonus, you learn that magic G is a repulsive old commie
Swinson would spend Friday night in nice restaurant made of recycled paper.
What I think it does show is that if the Tories could come up with something to neutralise the privatise the NHS stuff they might be able to move some people to them. I don’t think for one second that they are planning to privatise it but if they could come up with a charter or commitment to free at the point of use system for all British citizens then it would go alongside their funding announcements. They could even put any questions off for a generation by linking it to the 100th anniversary and putting in strategic goals in that period. Developing 5g health care at scale
The other thing I think they should do is take a greater role is building new social housing and linking right to buy to the age of the property, that is discounts on older housing stock that may need upgrading are higher and new stock less, but still available. Also regional discounts related to demand so if you have social housing in London you will get less of a discount than an area with less housing demand for example Hartlepool.
You can imagine the bus being more popular if it said get Brexit done so we can support the 30 year plan for the NHS, or get Brexit done for the New Right to Buy.
Berger would be a good choice if she got in, if not Cooper possibly but she is a little acidic
So theyll go for Hilary Benn
This is an interesting article because it lists all of the NHS Trusts performance for the 4 hour A&E target (England only).
I had always thought that part of the issue would be attracting staff to undesirable or expensive areas to live. This list seems not to correlate with that so perhaps it is bad management.
Nice thread - Is Nabavi voting tory though; that's what I want to know.
But Brexit and Boris have made Dave Allen's of us all
One used to be able to glean useful information here. Now it seems to be a refuge for people with nothing better to do with their time than post ridiculously partisan nonsense. One can read that in reams on numberless websites.
And the online Tory campaign by whoever is running it is a mile ahead of 2 years ago.
I do wonder if May deliberately ran such an awful campaign because you'd have struggled to make it worse if the brief was actually to make it a disaster.
Just one thing, which is that by the end of next year we will have something. It won't, as you say, be anywhere near a Free Trade Deal, of course not. It will be called EC/914/2020/GB01 and the EU will say it is a good agreement as a basis for going forward and BoJo will say that it prepares the way for us actually to leave and it will satisfy most people (Nige excepted, obvs) and see us into another five years of rounds of negotiation before we actually leave or it might just replicate every single element of EU membership if we do "leave" and we'll all move on (Nige excepted, obvs).
If we'd been discussing LibDem bouncebacks in 2015 (which we were, by the way) it was considered that they were so destroyed it would take them decades to return to a decent seat number. To have almost quadrupled their seat numbers in just four years is - objectively speaking - a great result for them.
Now, of course, the hard work begins. "Bollocks to Brexit" will be a bit out of date. But if the UK economy falters hard after Brexit (which may or may not be caused by Brexit itself...), then I wouldn't be surprised if they bnefited.
Re leadersip, it's worth remembering that Jo herself may not be elected. Chuka probably won't be elected. I suspect that a seat number greater than 20 secures Jo's future (should she wish to stay in the role). And there's no obvious other candidate to take over. So, I think they'll "plod along". And maybe, perhaps even probably, Jo grows into the role.
Labour are trying to justifying it by comparing global Britain with what rest of the world got and how it got there. This is toxic grenade into this election, not throwback to the past easily laughed at, because its global Britain, also 97% sounds pretty inclusive, no one left behind in those left behind communities, and take back control laced through it too. They are relating it to now and tomorrow, not 1983 or Stalinist Russia. So it really does need to be better attacked than this, else voters in Labour marginals could see it as a project to improve competitiveness and productivity of the nation as well as free money each month equal to a nice taxcut.
This is how to attack it. With more precision.
1. Labour claim other countries like south Korea done this same policy get it up to 97%. Japan 97% too, and Scandinavia and Ireland copying the South Korea example? Labours legitimising needs to be exposed as a lie or else in many voters heads all the attacking is attacking capitalist country’s like ours where this actually worked. So just a lot of fake news on costs and calling it commie cable a good enough response if that’s what voters thinking? one of the weaknesses of the project fear on costs is when policies are going to spend over 2 or 3 parliaments, like how Labour tried and failed attack totalling up cost of 40 hospitals, when Boris commitment is only 6 in first term.
2. A strong line of attack on it is a government run broadband service snooping. Not Commie Cable. KGB cable. KGB CABLE. Jeez, don’t you know what really worry’s the British public?
The undertone here from Labour is clear, our free market laisse faire capitalism has got us up to 10% at snails pace hence we are struggling to be competitive in the productivity tables, and consumers being ripped off in rip off Britain. They have chosen this hill to fight on, the blanket bombing from Boris and PB Tories rather than incisive strikes on this policy is proving how the Americans managed to lose in Vietnam.
Shockingly bad day for Tories today. There’s a stench of complacency Sharpen up!
This time they may have a point but many non-Tories are simply going to think we've heard it all before. The boy who cried wolf and all that.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-the-conservative-general-election-campaign-2pzwnz9tt
We become inured. But that doesn't make him any less repulsive or communist leaning
But McDonnell is going to nationalise them. Without compensation.
Now, it's possible that the squeeze will start next week. But right now, it's just not happening. And if it doesn't happen, I don't see how the Labour Party get more than 32-33%, and therefore I don't see how the Conservatives end up with less than 50 seat majority. (And probably more like 70-100)
On another subject, has anyone got their Zombie Attack action plan sorted out, and does anyone else agree that in fact, Boris Johnson is one of the lizard people?
To have got back into the mid-teens, and then to refresh their MP and councillor base and to have gotten more MPs than achieved at any time other than the 13 year period between 1997 and 2010, all within four years. I think that's - objectively - a good performance. Time will tell if they can go further.
If you want to go this exhibition, you need to book a timed slot (it's free). It's a rather cramped space so try to go at a less busy time; I usually find the first slot in the morning is good for exhibitions if you can make that. The staff are very helpful and can point out some of the extraordinary details in these paintings and engravings.
So, I think she'll hold it. But it's far from inconceivable that she'll be out on her ear.
Donald Trump's former adviser Roger Stone has been found guilty on all seven counts of obstruction, witness tampering and lying to Congress.
https://news.sky.com/story/ex-trump-adviser-roger-stone-convicted-of-lying-and-obstruction-11862187