politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest S

Have you come over to Cammo/Boris yet Sunil?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One for Josias - Cloudbusting by Ms. Bush

Boys of Summer - Don Henley

Classic

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

anotherDave said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Does anyone know when the Euro results will be announced?

Normally they are released on the Sunday night?

"The results from all 28 states will be announced on the evening of Sunday 25 May."

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/us/en/elections_2014.html

Phew! The election's after I come back from India (I'm leaving later this month).

Is there a train angle to your trip?

I'll see I'll have time. It's been a while since I been on a train in India, mostly fly domestic or go by car in recent years. Real reason I'm going is my brother's wedding.

Congratulations to your brother.

Thanks. He's five years younger than me, but I'm still single!

BTW - Club Tropicana on the radio now

Jake Baynes has been selected again for UKIP in Wells.

In 2010 there was controversy after he was asked to stand down as candidate by his party to assist the Tories but refused. In the event he polled 1,711 votes with David Heathcoat-Amory being defeated by 800.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/england/8620130.stm

http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/news/2014/ukip-candidate-03-04-14.php

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

What are the latest Ladbrokes odds on Maria Miller being next out of the cabinet?

They appear to have withdrawn their market.

You can back her at 33/1 as next Tory Leader though.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Next-Conservative-Party-Leader/Next-Permanent-Tory-Leader/Politics-N-1z141nmZ1z141n9Z1z141ne/

I take it they think she's probably finished then — or at least that's what punters are indicating.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

anotherDave said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Does anyone know when the Euro results will be announced?

Normally they are released on the Sunday night?

"The results from all 28 states will be announced on the evening of Sunday 25 May."

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/us/en/elections_2014.html

Phew! The election's after I come back from India (I'm leaving later this month).

Is there a train angle to your trip?

I'll see I'll have time. It's been a while since I been on a train in India, mostly fly domestic or go by car in recent years. Real reason I'm going is my brother's wedding.

Congratulations to your brother.

Thanks. He's five years younger than me, but I'm still single!

BTW - Club Tropicana on the radio now

This may actually be a case when correlation implies causation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact.

This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.

For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats.
As ever DYOR.

I took that 10/1 as soon as Shadsy opened the market.

I still think it is value at 8/1

So do I fwiw.
Labour currently look likely to win between 300 - 375 seats on which basis I make the odds against them winning 351 - 375 seats something like a 5/1 - 6/1 shot.

A couple of less well-known Spandau Ballet tracks that are really top notch are Only When You Leave and I'll Fly For You, both from 1984.

They didn't chart as high as they might have done because the group's popularity began to decline after Gold in the summer of 1983.

Evening all, have I missed a polling crossover poll tonight?

i was a huge of Fine Young Cannibals, especial Roland Gift.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Johnny Come Home - Fine Young Cannibals

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndyJS said:

Save A Prayer is an absolutely amazing track IMO. Doesn't sound like it's more than 30 years old.

Yes one of Duran Duran's best.

State of Independence by Donna Summer didn't reach Top 10 so I'm not too familiar with it.

There were some really great tracks around in August/September 1982:

Talk Talk - Today
Donna Summer - State of Independence
Duran Duran - Save A Prayer
Evelyn King - Love Come Down
Carly Simon - Why
Rockers Revenge featuring Donnie Calvin - Walking On Sunshine
Shalamar - There It Is
Dire Straits - Private Investigations
The Jam - The Bitterest Pill

http://www.officialcharts.com/archive-chart/_/1/1982-09-04/
http://www.officialcharts.com/archive-chart/_/1/1982/

Evelyn King — Love Come Down:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6Gr5h0tJew&amp

Oh I almost forget — Depeche Mode with Leave In Silence.

The video is so weird they deleted it from their subsequent compilations IIRC.

Hungry Like The Wolf is a bit annoying IMO. Girls On Film was better although that was from 1981.

Some more YouGov polling (is only partial)

Westminster VI, UKIP 12, LD 9 (not 12)

Euros, According to YouGov, the percentage of voters intending to vote for the Lib Dems at the European elections has fallen from 11% to 9% in the past week.

Mark Littlewood in Daily Mail - Nick's worst nightmare: After Clegg's TV debacle, a former Lib Dem spokesman warns that a Euro election wipeout could see him losing the party leadership

The production on Papa Don't Preach is really fantastic. I say that even though the song isn't one of my favourites.

IIRC it's Paul Gambaccini's favourite 80s track.

The political class deserve a medal for achieving the seemingly impossible.

Making Nigel Farage seem normal.

fitalass said:

Mark Littlewood in Daily Mail - Nick's worst nightmare: After Clegg's TV debacle, a former Lib Dem spokesman warns that a Euro election wipeout could see him losing the party leadership

I think Nick will resign if the LDs are wiped out in the Euro elections. But that's rather unlikely — they ought to be able to win one seat in the SW and SE at worst.

Oh dear, as hatchet jobs go....
Daily Mail - I was on 'claim for everything' Maria's election team... but she so appalled me I ended up voting for Labour

"I told her to get out of the room, saying that we would get her elected, and that she should leave everybody else alone.

I was so appalled by her behaviour, I voted for her Labour rival even though I was effectively her campaign manager and I was a Tory councillor at the time.

After a while, the Tories made it clear they didn’t want me.

I later joined UKIP. It was the best thing I ever did."

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Sunday Times

NIGEL FARAGE, the UKIP leader, has received a boost in his attempt to be included in pre-election debates opposite David Cameron and Ed Miliband.

Ofcom, the broadcasting regulator, said this weekend it would not stand in the way of Farage taking part in a leaders’ debate by requiring UKIP to prove that it had become a major party.

No!!! If @ScottP hadn't bottled our bet I'd have been onto a winner!

2/1 with Hills that Farage will appear in debates

peter_from_putney said:

Mike - now that Laddies have introduced a good range of single constituency bets (shame they haven't yet been followed by the likes of scaredy-cats Hills), could we have a thread please on PBers' favourite bet amongst this bunch of seats - limited say to odds of at least 4/6?

Perhaps you'd allow me to kick things off by nominating Labour to win Brighton Pavilion at seemingly generous odds of even money from Ladbrokes.

Martin Baxter currently gives Labour a 63.9% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens' 28.1% chance of retaining it. Of course he could be wrong, but personally I doubt he's this wrong.

DYOR.

UKIP, Thanet South: 9/4.
Con, Hampstead: 4/1
LDs, Cardiff Central: 2/1
UKIP, Eastleigh: 4/1
SNP, Inverness: 4/1
Lab, Sheffield Hallam: 5/1
Con, Watford: 9/4
UKIP, Basingstoke: 20/1
Con, Bath: 6/1
Lab, Bermondsey: 9/4
Con, Brentford: 5/2
SNP, Caithness: 6/1
UKIP, Camborne: 16/1
UKIP, Devon N: 20/1
Lab, Leeds NW: 11/4
Con, Waveney: 3/1

Andy - you're allowed just ONE nomination!

AndyJS said:

peter_from_putney said:

Andy - you're allowed just ONE nomination!

Sorry!

Okay — I'll go for SNP, Inverness: 4/1.

Depends a lot on the independence referendum of course.

Funny you went for Inverness ..... I had seriously considered nominating Danny Boy winning there until I noticed his odds had recently shortened from 4/6 (the minimum price I suggested) to 1/2.

Yes, just like the Cleggism polling bounce on the back of the Leadership debates knackered some polling models during the GE campaign....

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Some more YouGov polling (is only partial)

Westminster VI, UKIP 12, LD 9 (not 12)

Partial it might be, but that's a massive shift compared with tonight's Survation poll which had UKIP + LibDems on 30% (20% +10% respectively), compared with YouGov's combined figure of 21%.
Depending on their Lab:Con split, perhaps Dave can sleep tonight after all!

I would say that the ukip ride has knackered the polling companies models

Seant, take deep breaths and don't panic, its a panel base poll. And while you are at it, just remember that Cleggism ONLINE polling bounce for the Libdems.....After the Indy Referendum votes NO, the Labour party are on their own in Scotland....

SeanT said:

peter_from_putney said:

A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact.
This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.

For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats.
As ever DYOR.

It's all meaningless. Have you seen the latest indyref poll? 53/47, NO/YES.

YES, right now, is on course to win. It is surfing home.

Labour will be mutilated in September and social democracy in rUK will be euthanised for a generation.

And still the lefties cavort on pb as if none of this is happening. And the next GE will of course be perfectly normal. It is decidedly odd.

**Falls over in shock**

Front page of the Sunday Herald. Alleges Osborne and Darling in currency cover-up.

http://t.co/8TGr9zjdLh

Looks like Yes is now sitting pretty for September. It's going to be tight, but the odds have to be moving towards separation. It'll certainly make for fascinating times. Something constitutionally new, and as yet almost entirely unanticipated, is probably going to emerge for us all.

SeanT said:

peter_from_putney said:

A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact.
This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.

For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats.
As ever DYOR.

It's all meaningless. Have you seen the latest indyref poll? 53/47, NO/YES.

YES, right now, is on course to win. It is surfing home.

Labour will be mutilated in September and social democracy in rUK will be euthanised for a generation.

And still the lefties cavort on pb as if none of this is happening. And the next GE will of course be perfectly normal. It is decidedly odd.

Why do you keep insisting that Labour would be doomed without Scotland. As has been said numerous times, losing Scotland would not have stopped any of Labour's election victories. More to the point, with Scottish Westminster polls putting Labour in the 30-35% range, that's actually below Labour's UK-wide scores, so they would actually get a boost if Scotland was to be removed from the polls tomorrow (a miniscule boost of about 0.1%, but still).

Its a shame that far too many of the last Labour Government's budgets bounced in the wrong direction and caused current pensioners so much hardship!

surbiton said:

The Budget bounce lasted just one day. At least, the Euro flounce bounce lasted a week !

It is the current pensioners who have been hurt the most. Their annuities are tied to whatever arrangements they had made. The "liberation" does not come into effect until September 2015.

I have met a few recent pensioners. They are no best pleased. With the QE induced rates, their savings incomes have crashed. Great for house buying but bad if you are living from them.

surbiton said:

fitalass said:

Thanks for raising this valid point. At the moment, and just over a year before the next GE, Nigel Farage isn't even as yet standing as a prospective Westminster MP! So that makes the current discussions about his inclusion in any future PM debates during the GE campaign even more daft if you don't discount the fact that UKIP currently have no MP's!

anotherDave said:

Survation also did a constituency poll for Folkestone, with Mr Farage as the UKIP candidate.

Con 36%, Lab 18%, LD 8%, UKIP 33%

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2597958/Farage-storms-seat-Commons-winning-publics-verdict-TV-debate-Clegg.html

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/folkestoneandhythe/

Interesting. 2010 results:

Con 49.4%, Lab 10.8%, LD 30.3%, UKIP 4.6%

Actually, worse than national polls.Here the Con to Lab swing is about 10.3% against 6% to 8% in the polls.

The Con to UKIP swing is a staggering 20.9%. I wonder what it was like in Eastleigh.

Thankfully Farage can only stand in one seat! ;-)

Danny565 said:

SeanT said:

peter_from_putney said:

A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact.
This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.

For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats.
As ever DYOR.

It's all meaningless. Have you seen the latest indyref poll? 53/47, NO/YES.

YES, right now, is on course to win. It is surfing home.

Labour will be mutilated in September and social democracy in rUK will be euthanised for a generation.

And still the lefties cavort on pb as if none of this is happening. And the next GE will of course be perfectly normal. It is decidedly odd.

Why do you keep insisting that Labour would be doomed without Scotland. As has been said numerous times, losing Scotland would not have stopped any of Labour's election victories. More to the point, with Scottish Westminster polls putting Labour in the 30-35% range, that's actually below Labour's UK-wide scores, so they would actually get a boost if Scotland was to be removed from the polls tomorrow (a miniscule boost of about 0.1%, but still).

Those factoids understate the benefit Labour are getting from Scotland right now, which comes from their advantage over Con, magnified by FPTP. Losing 40 seats while Con only lose 1 would be quite serious, if not mortally devastating. It's true that there hasn't been a recent Labour win of under 40 seats, but that's just a matter of chance; It's not a particularly unlikely outcome.

If you hadn't had the Scottish seats in 2010 the Tories would have got a majority, which would have kept the LibDems in opposition, which would have kept the Labour vote down, and the Tories would be looking at a decent chance of getting a majority in 2015 as well.

Cameron throws Scottish Tories under the bus.

THE next General Election is a bigger political fight for the Tories than the independence referendum, David Cameron said yesterday.

The Prime Minister ranked defeating Labour in 2015 above maintaining the Union in a speech to the National Conservative Convention in London.

Link to the article is now available.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/currency-furore-over-mystery-of-missing-memos.23890582

So tell me which currency Scotland will be using post Independence? I have read this article, and it does not only confirm the currency union is a non goer, its utterly bollocks on everything else too!

old_labour said:

Link to the article is now available.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/currency-furore-over-mystery-of-missing-memos.23890582

Yougov EP Elections – (chg since Mar 22) LAB 34 (+2) UKIP 27 (+4) CON 21 (-6) LD 9 (+2) AP 9 (-1)

When they count only those who say they are certain to vote, UKIP gains another six points to 34%, seven points ahead of Labour and fully 14 points ahead of the Conservatives.