Phew! The election's after I come back from India (I'm leaving later this month).
Is there a train angle to your trip?
I'll see I'll have time. It's been a while since I been on a train in India, mostly fly domestic or go by car in recent years. Real reason I'm going is my brother's wedding.
Phew! The election's after I come back from India (I'm leaving later this month).
Is there a train angle to your trip?
I'll see I'll have time. It's been a while since I been on a train in India, mostly fly domestic or go by car in recent years. Real reason I'm going is my brother's wedding.
Congratulations to your brother.
Thanks. He's five years younger than me, but I'm still single!
Jake Baynes has been selected again for UKIP in Wells.
In 2010 there was controversy after he was asked to stand down as candidate by his party to assist the Tories but refused. In the event he polled 1,711 votes with David Heathcoat-Amory being defeated by 800.
Phew! The election's after I come back from India (I'm leaving later this month).
Is there a train angle to your trip?
I'll see I'll have time. It's been a while since I been on a train in India, mostly fly domestic or go by car in recent years. Real reason I'm going is my brother's wedding.
Congratulations to your brother.
Thanks. He's five years younger than me, but I'm still single!
BTW - Club Tropicana on the radio now
This may actually be a case when correlation implies causation.
A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact.
This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.
For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats. As ever DYOR.
I took that 10/1 as soon as Shadsy opened the market.
I still think it is value at 8/1
So do I fwiw. Labour currently look likely to win between 300 - 375 seats on which basis I make the odds against them winning 351 - 375 seats something like a 5/1 - 6/1 shot.
A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact.
This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.
For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats. As ever DYOR.
I took that 10/1 as soon as Shadsy opened the market.
I still think it is value at 8/1
So do I fwiw. Labour currently look likely to win between 300 - 375 seats on which basis I make the odds against them winning 351 - 375 seats something like a 5/1 - 6/1 shot.
Save A Prayer is an absolutely amazing track IMO. Doesn't sound like it's more than 30 years old.
Yes one of Duran Duran's best.
State of Independence by Donna Summer didn't reach Top 10 so I'm not too familiar with it.
There were some really great tracks around in August/September 1982:
Talk Talk - Today Donna Summer - State of Independence Duran Duran - Save A Prayer Evelyn King - Love Come Down Carly Simon - Why Rockers Revenge featuring Donnie Calvin - Walking On Sunshine Shalamar - There It Is Dire Straits - Private Investigations The Jam - The Bitterest Pill
Save A Prayer is an absolutely amazing track IMO. Doesn't sound like it's more than 30 years old.
Yes one of Duran Duran's best.
State of Independence by Donna Summer didn't reach Top 10 so I'm not too familiar with it.
There were some really great tracks around in August/September 1982:
Talk Talk - Today Donna Summer - State of Independence Duran Duran - Save A Prayer Evelyn King - Love Come Down Carly Simon - Why Rockers Revenge featuring Donnie Calvin - Walking On Sunshine Shalamar - There It Is Dire Straits - Private Investigations The Jam - The Bitterest Pill
Mike - now that Laddies have introduced a good range of single constituency bets (shame they haven't yet been followed by the likes of scaredy-cats Hills), could we have a thread please on PBers' favourite bet amongst this bunch of seats - limited say to odds of at least 4/6?
Perhaps you'd allow me to kick things off by nominating Labour to win Brighton Pavilion at seemingly generous odds of even money from Ladbrokes.
Martin Baxter currently gives Labour a 63.9% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens' 28.1% chance of retaining it. Of course he could be wrong, but personally I doubt he's this wrong.
Euros, According to YouGov, the percentage of voters intending to vote for the Lib Dems at the European elections has fallen from 11% to 9% in the past week.
Oh I almost forget — Depeche Mode with Leave In Silence.
The video is so weird they deleted it from their subsequent compilations IIRC.
Yes, but the song is great - it was their first "darker" single and is almost "housey" in style. Though 1983's Get the Balance Right was hailed by some of Detroit's House scene as the "first ever" House single.
The "deleted" videos were for See You, The Meaning of Love, Leave in Silence and Get the Balance Right.
Here they are in all their glory!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4kVQnZhHmg - look out for Hounslow station at the start!
Mike - now that Laddies have introduced a good range of single constituency bets (shame they haven't yet been followed by the likes of scaredy-cats Hills), could we have a thread please on PBers' favourite bet amongst this bunch of seats - limited say to odds of at least 4/6?
Perhaps you'd allow me to kick things off by nominating Labour to win Brighton Pavilion at seemingly generous odds of even money from Ladbrokes.
Martin Baxter currently gives Labour a 63.9% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens' 28.1% chance of retaining it. Of course he could be wrong, but personally I doubt he's this wrong.
I think Nick will resign if the LDs are wiped out in the Euro elections. But that's rather unlikely — they ought to be able to win one seat in the SW and SE at worst.
NIGEL FARAGE, the UKIP leader, has received a boost in his attempt to be included in pre-election debates opposite David Cameron and Ed Miliband.
Ofcom, the broadcasting regulator, said this weekend it would not stand in the way of Farage taking part in a leaders’ debate by requiring UKIP to prove that it had become a major party.
"I told her to get out of the room, saying that we would get her elected, and that she should leave everybody else alone.
I was so appalled by her behaviour, I voted for her Labour rival even though I was effectively her campaign manager and I was a Tory councillor at the time.
After a while, the Tories made it clear they didn’t want me.
I later joined UKIP. It was the best thing I ever did."
Partial it might be, but that's a massive shift compared with tonight's Survation poll which had UKIP + LibDems on 30% (20% +10% respectively), compared with YouGov's combined figure of 21%. Depending on their Lab:Con split, perhaps Dave can sleep tonight after all!
NIGEL FARAGE, the UKIP leader, has received a boost in his attempt to be included in pre-election debates opposite David Cameron and Ed Miliband.
Ofcom, the broadcasting regulator, said this weekend it would not stand in the way of Farage taking part in a leaders’ debate by requiring UKIP to prove that it had become a major party.
No!!! If @ScottP hadn't bottled our bet I'd have been onto a winner!
Partial it might be, but that's a massive shift compared with tonight's Survation poll which had UKIP + LibDems on 30% (20% +10% respectively), compared with YouGov's combined figure of 21%. Depending on their Lab:Con split, perhaps Dave can sleep tonight after all!
I would say that the ukip ride has knackered the polling companies models
Mike - now that Laddies have introduced a good range of single constituency bets (shame they haven't yet been followed by the likes of scaredy-cats Hills), could we have a thread please on PBers' favourite bet amongst this bunch of seats - limited say to odds of at least 4/6?
Perhaps you'd allow me to kick things off by nominating Labour to win Brighton Pavilion at seemingly generous odds of even money from Ladbrokes.
Martin Baxter currently gives Labour a 63.9% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens' 28.1% chance of retaining it. Of course he could be wrong, but personally I doubt he's this wrong.
Depends a lot on the independence referendum of course.
Funny you went for Inverness ..... I had seriously considered nominating Danny Boy winning there until I noticed his odds had recently shortened from 4/6 (the minimum price I suggested) to 1/2.
Well, well, well - The Sunday Times reports as follows:
"The Sun on Sunday said Miller and her husband, Iain, had moved into a £1.2m, five-bedroom converted barn in Hampshire. The price is similar to the profit she made from the sale of the London home at the heart of the row."
Partial it might be, but that's a massive shift compared with tonight's Survation poll which had UKIP + LibDems on 30% (20% +10% respectively), compared with YouGov's combined figure of 21%. Depending on their Lab:Con split, perhaps Dave can sleep tonight after all!
I would say that the ukip ride has knackered the polling companies models
Seant, take deep breaths and don't panic, its a panel base poll. And while you are at it, just remember that Cleggism ONLINE polling bounce for the Libdems.....After the Indy Referendum votes NO, the Labour party are on their own in Scotland....
A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact. This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.
For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats. As ever DYOR.
It's all meaningless. Have you seen the latest indyref poll? 53/47, NO/YES.
YES, right now, is on course to win. It is surfing home.
Labour will be mutilated in September and social democracy in rUK will be euthanised for a generation.
And still the lefties cavort on pb as if none of this is happening. And the next GE will of course be perfectly normal. It is decidedly odd.
Thanks for raising this valid point. At the moment, and just over a year before the next GE, Nigel Farage isn't even as yet standing as a prospective Westminster MP! So that makes the current discussions about his inclusion in any future PM debates during the GE campaign even more daft if you don't discount the fact that UKIP currently have no MP's!
Good luck with that headline oldlabour, it was never in the gift of Osborne, Darling, Alexander or Balls to deliver a currency union and Salmond & Co know it. Its down to the voters of the UK to decide that one in their own Indy Referendum, and the more the SNP try to hide that fact, the more it motivates folk like me to get out and deliver leaflets on behalf of Better Together.
Looks like Yes is now sitting pretty for September. It's going to be tight, but the odds have to be moving towards separation. It'll certainly make for fascinating times. Something constitutionally new, and as yet almost entirely unanticipated, is probably going to emerge for us all.
Looks like Yes is now sitting pretty for September. It's going to be tight, but the odds have to be moving towards separation. It'll certainly make for fascinating times. Something constitutionally new, and as yet almost entirely unanticipated, is probably going to emerge for us all.
A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact. This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.
For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats. As ever DYOR.
It's all meaningless. Have you seen the latest indyref poll? 53/47, NO/YES.
YES, right now, is on course to win. It is surfing home.
Labour will be mutilated in September and social democracy in rUK will be euthanised for a generation.
And still the lefties cavort on pb as if none of this is happening. And the next GE will of course be perfectly normal. It is decidedly odd.
Why do you keep insisting that Labour would be doomed without Scotland. As has been said numerous times, losing Scotland would not have stopped any of Labour's election victories. More to the point, with Scottish Westminster polls putting Labour in the 30-35% range, that's actually below Labour's UK-wide scores, so they would actually get a boost if Scotland was to be removed from the polls tomorrow (a miniscule boost of about 0.1%, but still).
The Budget bounce lasted just one day. At least, the Euro flounce bounce lasted a week !
It is the current pensioners who have been hurt the most. Their annuities are tied to whatever arrangements they had made. The "liberation" does not come into effect until September 2015.
I have met a few recent pensioners. They are no best pleased. With the QE induced rates, their savings incomes have crashed. Great for house buying but bad if you are living from them.
The Budget bounce lasted just one day. At least, the Euro flounce bounce lasted a week !
It is the current pensioners who have been hurt the most. Their annuities are tied to whatever arrangements they had made. The "liberation" does not come into effect until September 2015.
I have met a few recent pensioners. They are no best pleased. With the QE induced rates, their savings incomes have crashed. Great for house buying but bad if you are living from them.
Thanks for raising this valid point. At the moment, and just over a year before the next GE, Nigel Farage isn't even as yet standing as a prospective Westminster MP! So that makes the current discussions about his inclusion in any future PM debates during the GE campaign even more daft if you don't discount the fact that UKIP currently have no MP's!
Thanks for raising this valid point. At the moment, and just over a year before the next GE, Nigel Farage isn't even as yet standing as a prospective Westminster MP! So that makes the current discussions about his inclusion in any future PM debates during the GE campaign even more daft if you don't discount the fact that UKIP currently have no MP's!
The Budget bounce lasted just one day. At least, the Euro flounce bounce lasted a week !
It is the current pensioners who have been hurt the most. Their annuities are tied to whatever arrangements they had made. The "liberation" does not come into effect until September 2015.
I have met a few recent pensioners. They are no best pleased. With the QE induced rates, their savings incomes have crashed. Great for house buying but bad if you are living from them.
A truly shocking poll for the Tories - with the Maria Miller impact yet to impact. This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.
For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats. As ever DYOR.
It's all meaningless. Have you seen the latest indyref poll? 53/47, NO/YES.
YES, right now, is on course to win. It is surfing home.
Labour will be mutilated in September and social democracy in rUK will be euthanised for a generation.
And still the lefties cavort on pb as if none of this is happening. And the next GE will of course be perfectly normal. It is decidedly odd.
Why do you keep insisting that Labour would be doomed without Scotland. As has been said numerous times, losing Scotland would not have stopped any of Labour's election victories. More to the point, with Scottish Westminster polls putting Labour in the 30-35% range, that's actually below Labour's UK-wide scores, so they would actually get a boost if Scotland was to be removed from the polls tomorrow (a miniscule boost of about 0.1%, but still).
Those factoids understate the benefit Labour are getting from Scotland right now, which comes from their advantage over Con, magnified by FPTP. Losing 40 seats while Con only lose 1 would be quite serious, if not mortally devastating. It's true that there hasn't been a recent Labour win of under 40 seats, but that's just a matter of chance; It's not a particularly unlikely outcome.
If you hadn't had the Scottish seats in 2010 the Tories would have got a majority, which would have kept the LibDems in opposition, which would have kept the Labour vote down, and the Tories would be looking at a decent chance of getting a majority in 2015 as well.
If you hadn't had the Scottish seats in 2010 the Tories would have got a majority, which would have kept the LibDems in opposition, which would have kept the Labour vote down, and the Tories would be looking at a decent chance of getting a majority in 2015 as well.
That's true for 2010, but the likelihood is that it was a one-off caused by Labour having a Scottish leader. Other than 2010, there's just no evidence for Scotland being overwhelmingly more Labour-friendly than the rest of the UK: their share of the vote in Scotland in 97/01/05 was barely above their overall UK share, and it was significantly below their share of the vote in Wales and every part of northern England. In '97 and '01, they even polled higher in the Midlands than they did in Scotland.
If you hadn't had the Scottish seats in 2010 the Tories would have got a majority, which would have kept the LibDems in opposition, which would have kept the Labour vote down, and the Tories would be looking at a decent chance of getting a majority in 2015 as well.
That's true for 2010, but the likelihood is that it was a one-off caused by Labour having a Scottish leader. Other than 2010, there's just no evidence for Scotland being overwhelmingly more Labour-friendly than the rest of the UK: their share of the vote in Scotland in 97/01/05 was barely above their overall UK share, and it was significantly below their share of the vote in Wales and every part of northern England. In '97 and '01, they even polled higher in the Midlands than they did in Scotland.
It's seats that decide who gets to be Prime Minister, not vote share, and their advantage there isn't just an artifact of having had a Scottish leader. It's a combination of the split of the other parties' shares and the strength of the anti-Tory vote.
That said, FPTP advantages and disadvantages do come and go over the course of a decade or three, so it's a medium-term issue not a long-term or eternal one.
Come 2016, how do think that Salmond or his successor would define beating the Labour party at the Holyrood elections with or without winning the Indy Referendum? Sorry, but I genuinely define this kind of utterly stupid questioning as so irrelevant it should be consigned to the bin.
So tell me which currency Scotland will be using post Independence? I have read this article, and it does not only confirm the currency union is a non goer, its utterly bollocks on everything else too!
On the previous thread, someone said that Christopher Jones, BBC reporter, has died. But I can't specifically remember the name, can't think of a face, not sure who he was, and I can't find anything from Google or Google News. Is there a link somewhere?
Yougov EP Elections – (chg since Mar 22) LAB 34 (+2) UKIP 27 (+4) CON 21 (-6) LD 9 (+2) AP 9 (-1)
When they count only those who say they are certain to vote, UKIP gains another six points to 34%, seven points ahead of Labour and fully 14 points ahead of the Conservatives.
Comments
BTW - Club Tropicana on the radio now
In 2010 there was controversy after he was asked to stand down as candidate by his party to assist the Tories but refused. In the event he polled 1,711 votes with David Heathcoat-Amory being defeated by 800.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/england/8620130.stm
http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/news/2014/ukip-candidate-03-04-14.php
*Switches to channel 702 (Radio 2)*
Ah, better - Save a Prayer
State of Independence by Donna Summer didn't reach Top 10 so I'm not too familiar with it.
Labour currently look likely to win between 300 - 375 seats on which basis I make the odds against them winning 351 - 375 seats something like a 5/1 - 6/1 shot.
They didn't chart as high as they might have done because the group's popularity began to decline after Gold in the summer of 1983.
Just the YouGov Westminster VI in the Sunday Times, though we may have to wait until 6am.
Talk Talk - Today
Donna Summer - State of Independence
Duran Duran - Save A Prayer
Evelyn King - Love Come Down
Carly Simon - Why
Rockers Revenge featuring Donnie Calvin - Walking On Sunshine
Shalamar - There It Is
Dire Straits - Private Investigations
The Jam - The Bitterest Pill
http://www.officialcharts.com/archive-chart/_/1/1982-09-04/
http://www.officialcharts.com/archive-chart/_/1/1982/
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6Gr5h0tJew&
They're playing another Duran song - Hungry Like the Wolf
The video is so weird they deleted it from their subsequent compilations IIRC.
Perhaps you'd allow me to kick things off by nominating Labour to win Brighton Pavilion at seemingly generous odds of even money from Ladbrokes.
Martin Baxter currently gives Labour a 63.9% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens' 28.1% chance of retaining it. Of course he could be wrong, but personally I doubt he's this wrong.
DYOR.
Westminster VI, UKIP 12, LD 9 (not 12)
Euros, According to YouGov, the percentage of voters intending to vote for the Lib Dems at the European elections has fallen from 11% to 9% in the past week.
IIRC it's Paul Gambaccini's favourite 80s track.
The "deleted" videos were for See You, The Meaning of Love, Leave in Silence and Get the Balance Right.
Here they are in all their glory!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4kVQnZhHmg - look out for Hounslow station at the start!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEoU0pgnFNc
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRPi0XXmc-I
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWK7QLvuI-I
Making Nigel Farage seem normal.
NIGEL FARAGE, the UKIP leader, has received a boost in his attempt to be included in pre-election debates opposite David Cameron and Ed Miliband.
Ofcom, the broadcasting regulator, said this weekend it would not stand in the way of Farage taking part in a leaders’ debate by requiring UKIP to prove that it had become a major party.
Daily Mail - I was on 'claim for everything' Maria's election team... but she so appalled me I ended up voting for Labour
"I told her to get out of the room, saying that we would get her elected, and that she should leave everybody else alone.
I was so appalled by her behaviour, I voted for her Labour rival even though I was effectively her campaign manager and I was a Tory councillor at the time.
After a while, the Tories made it clear they didn’t want me.
I later joined UKIP. It was the best thing I ever did."
Depending on their Lab:Con split, perhaps Dave can sleep tonight after all!
2/1 with Hills that Farage will appear in debates
Con, Hampstead: 4/1
LDs, Cardiff Central: 2/1
UKIP, Eastleigh: 4/1
SNP, Inverness: 4/1
Lab, Sheffield Hallam: 5/1
Con, Watford: 9/4
UKIP, Basingstoke: 20/1
Con, Bath: 6/1
Lab, Bermondsey: 9/4
Con, Brentford: 5/2
SNP, Caithness: 6/1
UKIP, Camborne: 16/1
UKIP, Devon N: 20/1
Lab, Leeds NW: 11/4
Con, Waveney: 3/1
In this regard, are we overdue an increase in the deposit required by parties' candidates which from memory hasn't changed for some time?
Okay — I'll go for SNP, Inverness: 4/1.
Depends a lot on the independence referendum of course.
"The Sun on Sunday said Miller and her husband, Iain, had moved into a £1.2m, five-bedroom converted barn in Hampshire. The price is similar to the profit she made from the sale of the London home at the heart of the row."
Con 36%, Lab 18%, LD 8%, UKIP 33%
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2597958/Farage-storms-seat-Commons-winning-publics-verdict-TV-debate-Clegg.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/folkestoneandhythe/
http://t.co/8TGr9zjdLh
It is the current pensioners who have been hurt the most. Their annuities are tied to whatever arrangements they had made. The "liberation" does not come into effect until September 2015.
I have met a few recent pensioners. They are no best pleased. With the QE induced rates, their savings incomes have crashed. Great for house buying but bad if you are living from them.
Con 49.4%, Lab 10.8%, LD 30.3%, UKIP 4.6%
Actually, worse than national polls.Here the Con to Lab swing is about 10.3% against 6% to 8% in the polls.
The Con to UKIP swing is a staggering 20.9%. I wonder what it was like in Eastleigh.
If you hadn't had the Scottish seats in 2010 the Tories would have got a majority, which would have kept the LibDems in opposition, which would have kept the Labour vote down, and the Tories would be looking at a decent chance of getting a majority in 2015 as well.
THE next General Election is a bigger political fight for the Tories than the independence referendum, David Cameron said yesterday.
The Prime Minister ranked defeating Labour in 2015 above maintaining the Union in a speech to the National Conservative Convention in London.
That said, FPTP advantages and disadvantages do come and go over the course of a decade or three, so it's a medium-term issue not a long-term or eternal one.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/currency-furore-over-mystery-of-missing-memos.23890582
But I can't specifically remember the name, can't think of a face, not sure who he was, and I can't find anything from Google or Google News. Is there a link somewhere?
When they count only those who say they are certain to vote, UKIP gains another six points to 34%, seven points ahead of Labour and fully 14 points ahead of the Conservatives.