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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest S
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll
On the Euro polling the big difference between Survation and ComRes was on the timing of the fieldwork. All of the Survation work took place after the Clegg/Farage BBC TV debate.
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Then again, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.
82% of Conservative voters say Maria Miller should resign from cabinet, 66% say should resign as an MP Survation/MOS http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Maria-Miller-Tables-FINAL.pdf …
Survation @Survation 29s
75% of public say David Cameron is wrong to stand by Maria Miller and let her keep her job - Survation/MOS http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Maria-Miller-Tables-FINAL.pdf …
Mr Cameron will not be pleased.
If Cameron is serious about detoxifying, he needs to make a stand.
Which is a good thing, we don't want polls with the Tories ahead, 'cause that might cause Labour to dump Ed before the general election.
You can back her at 33/1 as next Tory Leader though.
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Next-Conservative-Party-Leader/Next-Permanent-Tory-Leader/Politics-N-1z141nmZ1z141n9Z1z141ne/
Maria Miller must go over expenses claims, says senior minister
Minister says Culture Secretary Maria Miller's behaviour is 'incompatible with being in Cabinet and undermines PM'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10747333/Maria-Miller-must-go-over-expenses-claims-says-senior-minister.html
So Clegg's strategy so far has been brilliant and excellent.
Edit: It's a panelbase poll for Wings over Scotland not the Sunday Times
The poll for the pro-independence political website Wings Over Scotland finds that when the 14% of voters who are undecided are excluded, 47% intend to vote yes and 53% no. It is the nationalists’ best rating so far this year.
The lead was 24% last year
Sounds of the 80s on the BBC!
Sigh.
Lab 30 (+17)
UKIP 21 (+8)
Con 13 (-13)
LD 3 (-8)
Grn 0 (-2) *
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
* uncertain as no Green figure given.
Does anyone actually believe Labour are going to more than double their vote?
Euro Elections = Farage on TV. I'll let you do the rest.
But don't include them in the debates!
The latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting figures for the European parliament are certainly startling. Among all voters, UKIP has climbed from 23%, and third place, a week ago, to 28%, and a strong second place, this weekend.
When we count only those who say they are certain to vote, UKIP gains another six point to 34%, seven points ahead of Labour and fully 14 points ahead of the Conservatives.
Dave - Minus 10
Ed - Minus 34
Nick - Minus 51
Nigel - Plus 25
Papa Don't Preach
Take on Me
I Want to Break Free
Videos are on Freeview 302 (aka. Red Button on BBC1/2).
And yes vote now 'neck and neck'.
Farage is caning it, as he seems to when given a platform.
There is a decent chunk of support that wanders between blue and purple depending on recent events, but UKIP's base is a lot higher than it used to be.
The Tories should be very, very worried and we can expect to see confusion over whether to pretend to be UKIP, ignore UKIP, or insult UKIP.
We will probably get a contradictory mix of all three.
The word on the street is that Con is going to get 39% min GE2015!
Con 39% 334
Lab 31% 250
LD 15% 40
UKIP 7% 0
Others 8% 26 NI 18 SNP 5 PC 3
and right now:
Star Trekkin'
Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation 38s
@DAaronovitch @afneil So here's a thing. We have an optional comment box at the end of surveys. More people than usual wrote comments
Normally they are released on the Sunday night?
Nice warm up to London council elections! Hope my super Con borough which has frozen Council tax since 07 stays there!
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/us/en/elections_2014.html
YES 7/2 with Hills and PP.
Could that thread be the first ever PB thread written at a Nine Inch Nails gig?
SCOTLAND YARD is examining claims from jihadists linked to al-Qaeda in Syria, who say they have signed a former Arsenal footballer to the ranks of their foreign fighters.
Still, not the most embarrassing thing an ex Arsenal player has ever done is it?
It can't be the one that bumped uglies with Brian Coleman can it?
Looks like you have a problem or two coming your way in 1902, those German armies ain't going East and the Frogs will have two fleets against you in the Channel come the Autumn.
This is surely proof if proof were needed of the value offered by those generous folk at Ladbrokes in offering 10/1 over the past 2 or 3 days against Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats, equivalent to a majority of between 50 - 98, which they've since trimmed back to 8/1. Possibly the best value bet of the year so far.
For those who missed out, an alternative is to back the Tories to win between 226 - 250 seats at 6/1, especially if you consider the LibDems are likely to win more than the consensus view of 35 seats.
As ever DYOR.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UCoul5SRzA
I still think it is value at 8/1
Maria Miller 1/2 no longer Culture Secretary when General Election called. 6/4 still in office.
More chance of Arsenal winning the league!!
For some reason I thought the Euro election was first week of May - obviously mistaken,