There are a number of reasonable and self interested grounds for the Commons not to agree to the Super Saturday stunt. You may not agree with them but describing them as " insane " is ludicrous.
Can’t both things be true? There are sensible reasons to want more time to consider the issues, but many of the MPs are voting against as a simple stunt and won’t do any more considering. A plague on all their houses.
There are a number of reasonable and self interested grounds for the Commons not to agree to the Super Saturday stunt. You may not agree with them but describing them as " insane " is ludicrous.
Tough as it may be for them, they may be best advised to try and grieve in private rather than embark on legal action and public interviews which are, I suspect, unlikely to succeed. If the facts are not enough to make Mrs Sacoolas do the decent thing, I doubt that media hype or legal action will do so.
I suspect that she would have only had a fine and driving ban if she had stayed and faced the consequences. A custodial sentence would be quite unlikely.
You're probably right. And she could then have apologised in private to the family and given them what comfort they might want from telling them what happened. The family don't appear a vengeful sort. Badly done by Mrs Sacoolas.
Many years ago my husband was knocked down by a hit and run driver. He was left with quite serious head injuries. It was another passing motorist who helped him, the original driver having fled. Our children were very young at the time. Had there not been a Good Samaritan there I dread to think what the outcome would have been. I simply cannot understand the mentality of someone who walks away from something like that rather than face the music. How do they sleep at night?
If the Commons votes against holding Super Saturday ( as it should ) then that adds a weekend of campaigning time for the grassroots to crack up their machines.
Why should it
The Commons doesn't normally sit on Saturdays and sets its own sitting times. The burden of proof is on the executive which is making the request. I'm sure Rees-Mogg will be upto the job.
NYT: Charles Blow on Biden at debate - "Bless his heart. It feels like he’s just hanging on for dear life. At moments, it felt like he vanished, not just because it wasn’t his time to speak but because his aura of invincibility is flickering like a candle in a hurricane. But he yelled in his closing, so there’s that."
Other columnists also gave him the thumbs down.
Not looking good for the Dems at the moment.
I disagree. I think Warren is ideally positioned to win back the critical swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. A prairie populist with a record of bashing the coastal beacons of Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything.
Is Marmite either Halal or kosher? Would Vegemite work? Prefer Bovril myself.
Dunno about kosher, but IIRC halal is only concerned with the slaughter of animals providing meat, and there are no other Islamic dietary restrictions other than the prohibition of pork and the consumption of blood.
So Vegemite by not containing any meet is ipso facto halal.
Marmite is of course a by-product of brewing and I presume vegemite is too. Not sure if that makes a difference so long as they don't contain alcohol.
If the Commons votes against holding Super Saturday ( as it should ) then that adds a weekend of campaigning time for the grassroots to crack up their machines.
Why should it
The Commons doesn't normally sit on Saturdays and sets its own sitting times. The burden of proof is on the executive which is making the request. I'm sure Rees-Mogg will be upto the job.
These are as far removed from normal times as you can get
Mrs Sacoolas could sort this out by doing the decent thing herself, coming back to the UK, speaking to the police and, if action is taken against her, taking her punishment.
I would be not too surprised if I heard that she had had her US passport taken away from her. I wonder if she has thought about doing just that. I bet she's being closely wacthed to make sure she doesn't try to leave the country, or even get to the UK embassay.
Well, where she/her husband was working isn't your standard diplomatic-type place, is it?
Governments don't normally reveal the names of their spies do they?
surbiton 19 said: "Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything."
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
There are a number of reasonable and self interested grounds for the Commons not to agree to the Super Saturday stunt. You may not agree with them but describing them as " insane " is ludicrous.
Can’t both things be true? There are sensible reasons to want more time to consider the issues, but many of the MPs are voting against as a simple stunt and won’t do any more considering. A plague on all their houses.
MPs are: - Voting against a deal - Voting against no dea - Voting against an election
They deserved to be completely pilloried and ostracised from public life.
The refusal of the US to handover the apparent killer of Harry Dunn or provide redress to the Connors after the disgusting abuse of their infant son shows the United States is no longer a friend to the UK. Nor should they any longer be considered a civilized Western country.
You do realise no nation on the planet would “hand over” a citizen in these circumstances without months of patient diplomatic work? Of course you do.
We all dislike Trump. We mustn’t let it blind us when the US is actually just acting like we would.
There is a UK-US Extradition Treaty.
The individual has/had diplomatic immunity. There’s various bits of complexity around that; but all nations guard that religiously. If it doesn’t matter with us because they trust our legal system, then what about France? What about Mexico? What about Egypt? What about Iran?
There’s obviously a line in there somewhere, but it’s better not to try and draw it, and to keep consistent for all countries. We’d do the same.
It’s unimaginable what that family is going through, but it’s not a Trump/US thing.
The technical debate is that she is now back in the US so no longer has diplomatic immunity (the purpose of which is to prevent undue pressure on diplomats)
Wouldn't that open up extradition as a route to follow?
That would depend on the precise terms of the treaty. You will be aware that there was a lot of disquiet at the time it was agreed about its one-sided nature. And if such action was taken the US would no doubt respond by saying that she had immunity. So back to square one.
Mrs Sacoolas could sort this out by doing the decent thing herself, coming back to the UK, speaking to the police and, if action is taken against her, taking her punishment.
Raab's letter said that the US considers that diplomatic immunity is "no longer pertinent" which sounds like weasel wording to me.
The one sided nature of the treaty is to do with the fact that the US authorities don't have to demonstrate a case in the UK, while I believe we have to provide evidential support in the US.
Super Saturday is classic ' security theatre '. Evoking a war time atmosphere to manufacture consent. I don't mind the Government chancing its arm - this is politics - but equally I don't mind the Commons telling it to sod off. All the fun of the fair.
Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything.
What’s the point of debating it before you’ve had time to carefully read and consider it?
I mean, what’s the rush?
The mps want no deal stopped but they are risking no deal as time runs out, the EU refuses an extension of more than a few weeks, and the deal is the only choice left. Revoke is politically impossible
The refusal of the US to handover the apparent killer of Harry Dunn or provide redress to the Connors after the disgusting abuse of their infant son shows the United States is no longer a friend to the UK. Nor should they any longer be considered a civilized Western country.
You do realise no nation on the planet would “hand over” a citizen in these circumstances without months of patient diplomatic work? Of course you do.
We all dislike Trump. We mustn’t let it blind us when the US is actually just acting like we would.
This is a heartbreaking case. Set aside the question of whether the US should waive diplomatic immunity here - assuming that this woman was in fact entitled to it. There are two issues here:-
1. She apparently told the police that she
I have to say that I find it hard to understand how Mrs Sacoolas can live with herself. She has been responsible for the death of a young man. She is refusing to face the consequences of that by accepting the necessary punishment (if that is appropriate) or even allowing the police to gather all the facts. She will - presumably - be teaching her children about the importance of behaving with integrity, of understanding that actions have consequences, of learning to face up to your own mistakes, not be a coward etc. And yet in her own life she is setting the most awful example by running away. The Dunns don't want her imprisoned but they do want her to face up to what she has done and accept the consequences. I don't think this is too much to ask.
But I fear they will not get this.
Tough as it may be for them, they may be best advised to try and grieve in private rather than embark on legal action and public interviews which are, I suspect, unlikely to succeed. If the facts are not enough to make Mrs Sacoolas do the decent thing, I doubt that media hype or legal action will do so.
I suspect that she would have only had a fine and driving ban if she had stayed and faced the consequences. A custodial sentence would be quite unlikely.
Ignoring the fact she ran away, a bit of me says in a foreign country, driving on the wrong side of the road, maybe with bad road conditions; there but for the grace of God....
But the police reaction suggests more. Still, we can’t know.
Now, there are various ways around this. Bitcoin "tumblers" or "mixers" attempt to allow you pay in 1 Bitcoin and then get lots of bits of Bitcoin back from various other people. By doing it in this way, it becomes hard (perhaps impossible) to trace individual users. But most criminals aren't that smart.
That assumes that the mixers aren't really bad actors, like a lot of the Tor nodes and VPNs. It's actually really bloody difficult to be sure that such anonymizers work, and you only have to be wrong once.
Not that I have even the tiniest shred of sympathy for those caught in this particular case.
There are a number of reasonable and self interested grounds for the Commons not to agree to the Super Saturday stunt. You may not agree with them but describing them as " insane " is ludicrous.
Can’t both things be true? There are sensible reasons to want more time to consider the issues, but many of the MPs are voting against as a simple stunt and won’t do any more considering. A plague on all their houses.
Did you know that some academic literally once claimed that the Israel Palestine conflict was due to a lack of iron and could be solved by making people in the region eat Marmite, and the important people considered it for a while because when some old white dude says something authoritatively you have to pretend it's important?
How do we know he wasn't taking the piss ?
More importantly, how do we know he wasn’t right?
Why does the map include Switzerland but not Norway?
Because there has never been conflict in Norway, whereas Switzerland...
Never been conflict in Norway......... I refer you to 1940, and the battles without which Churchill might well not have become PM.
To say nothing of the battle of Rastarkalv in 955.
The refusal of the US to handover the apparent killer of Harry Dunn or provide redress to the Connors after the disgusting abuse of their infant son shows the United States is no longer a friend to the UK. Nor should they any longer be considered a civilized Western country.
You do realise no nation on the planet would “hand over” a citizen in these circumstances without months of patient diplomatic work? Of course you do.
We all dislike Trump. We mustn’t let it blind us when the US is actually just acting like we would.
There is a UK-US Extradition Treaty.
The individual has/had diplomatic immunity. There’s various bits of complexity around that; but all nations guard that religiously. If it doesn’t matter with us because they trust our legal system, then what about France? What about Mexico? What about Egypt? What about Iran?
There’s obviously a line in there somewhere, but it’s better not to try and draw it, and to keep consistent for all countries. We’d do the same.
It’s unimaginable what that family is going through, but it’s not a Trump/US thing.
The technical debate is that she is now back in the US so no longer has diplomatic immunity (the purpose of which is to prevent undue pressure on diplomats)
Wouldn't that open up extradition as a route to follow?
I don’t claim to be an expert, but if that logic held true, wouldn’t it work for all diplomats everywhere accused of crimes? To take a trivial example, all of our diplomats in DC who refuse to pay for parking at the airport should, on that logic, expect a bill when they get home.
It feels like a complex area where you have to have absolutes or the whole system falls over.
Sure - they get a bill and they ignore it.
The absolute is to prevent harassment when they are in the country where they are acting as diplomats. Once they are out of the country there is harassment risk therefore they should be subject to extradition as normal. (IANAL...)
Re John Rentoul: yes, good chance it will pass - which is why remainer alliance MPs are now resorting to trying to cancel Saturday sitting so MPs don`t have the chance to vote on it.
If there's one thing that has amazed me by what has happened over the last few weeks, it's the way that some Remainers have effectively made the case for Boris steamrolling Brexit through.
Super Saturday is classic ' security theatre '. Evoking a war time atmosphere to manufacture consent. I don't mind the Government chancing its arm - this is politics - but equally I don't mind the Commons telling it to sod off. All the fun of the fair.
There is no fun in any of this and it needs a deal fast
Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything.
15 Lab is high when you get down to it. Nick P first identified Kinnock's gang but then seemed to row back on that which leaves us back at 5-6. Could still pass, that said, but I don't see Lab giving Boris hero status no matter people might say "but you wrecked a deal".
There are a number of reasonable and self interested grounds for the Commons not to agree to the Super Saturday stunt. You may not agree with them but describing them as " insane " is ludicrous.
Can’t both things be true? There are sensible reasons to want more time to consider the issues, but many of the MPs are voting against as a simple stunt and won’t do any more considering. A plague on all their houses.
MPs are: - Voting against a deal - Voting against no dea - Voting against an election
They deserved to be completely pilloried and ostracised from public life.
Businesses want some certainty, the likes of @Yellow_Submarine are as bad as the ERG.
Re John Rentoul: yes, good chance it will pass - which is why remainer alliance MPs are now resorting to trying to cancel Saturday sitting so MPs don`t have the chance to vote on it.
Not so sure myself - just posted the Rentoul tweet as a sort of baseline for others to work off.
Will the DUP really allow an Irish Sea customs border? Also dubious the number of Lab votes will get into double figures.
surbiton 19 said: "Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything."
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
If the deal goes down I think Labour get absolutely hammered in election. They won't be able to repeat the 2017 trick of making it about something other than Brexit. They will have forced a surrender act to supposedly get a deal, then voted down that deal. That hurts you not just among Leavers but also moderate Remainers who think the referendum should be honoured. And most Labour seats are in the North and Midlands which are mostly Leave and where Remainers tend to be more moderate. On the other side, the Lib Dems are clearly much more trusted than Corbyn to be genuinely true Remain, rather than play a 7/10 token effort like Corbyn will do again.
Plus they will be facing Johnson and Swinson, who are far more charismatic leaders than their predecessors.
Did you know that some academic literally once claimed that the Israel Palestine conflict was due to a lack of iron and could be solved by making people in the region eat Marmite, and the important people considered it for a while because when some old white dude says something authoritatively you have to pretend it's important?
How do we know he wasn't taking the piss ?
More importantly, how do we know he wasn’t right?
Why does the map include Switzerland but not Norway?
Because there has never been conflict in Norway, whereas Switzerland...
Never been conflict in Norway......... I refer you to 1940, and the battles without which Churchill might well not have become PM.
To say nothing of the battle of Rastarkalv in 955.
Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything.
15 Lab is high when you get down to it. Nick P first identified Kinnock's gang but then seemed to row back on that which leaves us back at 5-6. Could still pass, that said, but I don't see Lab giving Boris hero status no matter people might say "but you wrecked a deal".
Boris will be a hero to Leavers whether he succeeds or fails. Labour's best shot is taking Brexit off the table and waiting for a suitable long period afterwards to force an election at a time of their own choosing.
surbiton 19 said: "Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything."
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
If the deal goes down I think Labour get absolutely hammered in election. They won't be able to repeat the 2017 trick of making it about something other than Brexit. They will have forced a surrender act to supposedly get a deal, then voted down that deal. That hurts you not just among Leavers but also moderate Remainers who think the referendum should be honoured. And most Labour seats are in the North and Midlands which are mostly Leave and where Remainers tend to be more moderate. On the other side, the Lib Dems are clearly much more trusted than Corbyn to be genuinely true Remain, rather than play a 7/10 token effort like Corbyn will do again.
Plus they will be facing Johnson and Swinson, who are far more charismatic leaders than their predecessors.
Interesting. I think that Lab will be criticised more for propping up Boris than for voting down the deal. If I could imagine the boot being on the other foot (oh and in normal times, obvs) I would be seriously displeased if the Cons voted with Lab for anything. Then again we're far from in normal times. Then again...
The refusal of the US to handover the apparent killer of Harry Dunn or provide redress to the Connors after the disgusting abuse of their infant son shows the United States is no longer a friend to the UK. Nor should they any longer be considered a civilized Western country.
You do realise no nation on the planet would “hand over” a citizen in these circumstances without months of patient diplomatic work? Of course you do.
We all dislike Trump. We mustn’t let it blind us when the US is actually just acting like we would.
There is a UK-US Extradition Treaty.
The individual has/had diplomatic immunity. There’s various bits of complexity around that; but all nations guard that religiously. If it doesn’t matter with us because they trust our legal system, then what about France? What about Mexico? What about Egypt? What about Iran?
There’s obviously a line in there somewhere, but it’s better not to try and draw it, and to keep consistent for all countries. We’d do the same.
It’s unimaginable what that family is going through, but it’s not a Trump/US thing.
How about that stunt in the White House?
Oh that’s inexcusable and shows Trump is an arse. I assumed that was priced in and was talking about the underlying issue and the advice he’s getting.
Edit - It also really does emphasise he thinks like a reality tv star. Probably something we can learn from that in predicting future behaviour. I mean “well guess what, we’ve brought her here tonight to apologise” is unbelievably crass and naive.
Why in God's name did Mrs S agree to it? I think far more criticism should be made of her than Trump in this case. Any decent person would have said no to such a circus.
I agree. Though, was she ordered to? He husband was a “diplomat”, does she work for the US Gvt too?
There are some orders you refuse to obey. Out of plain human decency, frankly. This should have been one of them, if in fact there was an "order".
I've some sympathy for her leaving.
She was scared, no doubt advised by the embassy and lawyers to leave and did what she was told.
But once she had the time to get home and reflect on the situation she should have done what you said.
(I'll see what my wife can find out from her friends at the 'embassy'..)
All this non information is hurting my brain. If as is being rumoured Boris has made concessions as described then this should not get any support from either ERG or the DUP. However at worse they actually seem just lukewarm or split. That either means Boris is not conceding that much or they have lost the will to fight.
On votes surely even with the DUP and Tory rebels Boris has a majority of -1. If he has done a deal many of those rebels will still support him, but several have now just gone for good surely, so he is relying on several Labour rebels. Surely that means even the best deal is going to be tight.
Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything.
15 Lab is high when you get down to it. Nick P first identified Kinnock's gang but then seemed to row back on that which leaves us back at 5-6. Could still pass, that said, but I don't see Lab giving Boris hero status no matter people might say "but you wrecked a deal".
Yes, that was my thought. 20 out of 28 'Spartans' might be an over-estimate as well, although it's hard to be sure. Overall I'd expect it to be closer than John Rentoul suggests. No chance if the DUP don't play ball, of course.
surbiton 19 said: "Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything."
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
If the deal goes down I think Labour get absolutely hammered in election. They won't be able to repeat the 2017 trick of making it about something other than Brexit. They will have forced a surrender act to supposedly get a deal, then voted down that deal. That hurts you not just among Leavers but also moderate Remainers who think the referendum should be honoured. And most Labour seats are in the North and Midlands which are mostly Leave and where Remainers tend to be more moderate. On the other side, the Lib Dems are clearly much more trusted than Corbyn to be genuinely true Remain, rather than play a 7/10 token effort like Corbyn will do again.
Plus they will be facing Johnson and Swinson, who are far more charismatic leaders than their predecessors.
Interesting. I think that Lab will be criticised more for propping up Boris than for voting down the deal. If I could imagine the boot being on the other foot (oh and in normal times, obvs) I would be seriously displeased if the Cons voted with Lab for anything. Then again we're far from in normal times. Then again...
If Johnson gets a deal and can hold his own party together behind it, he will be in a position to go into an election promising a resolution to Brexit (or at least to the first stage of it). A Labour win or another hung parliament wouldn't do that.
The individual has/had diplomatic immunity. There’s various bits of complexity around that; but all nations guard that religiously. If it doesn’t matter with us because they trust our legal system, then what about France? What about Mexico? What about Egypt? What about Iran?
There’s obviously a line in there somewhere, but it’s better not to try and draw it, and to keep consistent for all countries. We’d do the same.
It’s unimaginable what that family is going through, but it’s not a Trump/US thing.
How about that stunt in the White House?
Oh that’s inexcusable and shows Trump is an arse. I assumed that was priced in and was talking about the underlying issue and the advice he’s getting.
Edit - It also really does emphasise he thinks like a reality tv star. Probably something we can learn from that in predicting future behaviour. I mean “well guess what, we’ve brought her here tonight to apologise” is unbelievably crass and naive.
Why in God's name did Mrs S agree to it? I think far more criticism should be made of her than Trump in this case. Any decent person would have said no to such a circus.
I agree. Though, was she ordered to? He husband was a “diplomat”, does she work for the US Gvt too?
There are some orders you refuse to obey. Out of plain human decency, frankly. This should have been one of them, if in fact there was an "order".
I've some sympathy for her leaving.
She was scared, no doubt advised by the embassy and lawyers to leave and did what she was told.
But once she had the time to get home and reflect on the situation she should have done what you said.
(I'll see what my wife can find out from her friends at the 'embassy'..)
If she'd stayed this would never have become a story. Now her name will be associated with this. I wouldn't like to be her explaining to my children why I ran away after having been responsible - however inadvertently - for another child's death.
Is Marmite either Halal or kosher? Would Vegemite work? Prefer Bovril myself.
Dunno about kosher, but IIRC halal is only concerned with the slaughter of animals providing meat, and there are no other Islamic dietary restrictions other than the prohibition of pork and the consumption of blood.
So Vegemite by not containing any meet is ipso facto halal.
Marmite is of course a by-product of brewing and I presume vegemite is too. Not sure if that makes a difference so long as they don't contain alcohol.
The issue with Marmite is that it used to be produced on the same production line as Bovril so could get non kosher contamination. I think that is resolved now.
surbiton 19 said: "Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything."
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
If the deal goes down I think Labour get absolutely hammered in election. They won't be able to repeat the 2017 trick of making it about something other than Brexit. They will have forced a surrender act to supposedly get a deal, then voted down that deal. That hurts you not just among Leavers but also moderate Remainers who think the referendum should be honoured. And most Labour seats are in the North and Midlands which are mostly Leave and where Remainers tend to be more moderate. On the other side, the Lib Dems are clearly much more trusted than Corbyn to be genuinely true Remain, rather than play a 7/10 token effort like Corbyn will do again.
Plus they will be facing Johnson and Swinson, who are far more charismatic leaders than their predecessors.
Interesting. I think that Lab will be criticised more for propping up Boris than for voting down the deal. If I could imagine the boot being on the other foot (oh and in normal times, obvs) I would be seriously displeased if the Cons voted with Lab for anything. Then again we're far from in normal times. Then again...
"Labour" don't need to prop him up. Corbyn just needs to let 15-20 backbench MPs in highly Leave seats vote for it and only get mild punishment. They might even boost their electoral chances by "standing up" to the leadership for their constituents. Corbyn can then spend the next three years saying the NHS is at risk.
All this non information is hurting my brain. If as is being rumoured Boris has made concessions as described then this should not get any support from either ERG or the DUP. However at worse they actually seem just lukewarm or split. That either means Boris is not conceding that much or they have lost the will to fight.
On votes surely even with the DUP and Tory rebels Boris has a majority of -1. If he has done a deal many of those rebels will still support him, but several have now just gone for good surely, so he is relying on several Labour rebels. Surely that means even the best deal is going to be tight.
Am I missing anything?
He needs an EU “this is your last chance” line from all the big hitters. Not sure if the incentive is there for them to give him that though.
surbiton 19 said: "Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything."
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
If the deal goes down I think Labour get absolutely hammered in election. They won't be able to repeat the 2017 trick of making it about something other than Brexit. They will have forced a surrender act to supposedly get a deal, then voted down that deal. That hurts you not just among Leavers but also moderate Remainers who think the referendum should be honoured. And most Labour seats are in the North and Midlands which are mostly Leave and where Remainers tend to be more moderate. On the other side, the Lib Dems are clearly much more trusted than Corbyn to be genuinely true Remain, rather than play a 7/10 token effort like Corbyn will do again.
Plus they will be facing Johnson and Swinson, who are far more charismatic leaders than their predecessors.
Interesting. I think that Lab will be criticised more for propping up Boris than for voting down the deal. If I could imagine the boot being on the other foot (oh and in normal times, obvs) I would be seriously displeased if the Cons voted with Lab for anything. Then again we're far from in normal times. Then again...
"Labour" don't need to prop him up. Corbyn just needs to let 15-20 backbench MPs in highly Leave seats vote for it and only get mild punishment. They might even boost their electoral chances by "standing up" to the leadership for their constituents. Corbyn can then spend the next three years saying the NHS is at risk.
surbiton 19 said: "Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything."
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
If the deal goes down I think Labour get absolutely hammered in election. They won't be able to repeat the 2017 trick of making it about something other than Brexit. They will have forced a surrender act to supposedly get a deal, then voted down that deal. That hurts you not just among Leavers but also moderate Remainers who think the referendum should be honoured. And most Labour seats are in the North and Midlands which are mostly Leave and where Remainers tend to be more moderate. On the other side, the Lib Dems are clearly much more trusted than Corbyn to be genuinely true Remain, rather than play a 7/10 token effort like Corbyn will do again.
Plus they will be facing Johnson and Swinson, who are far more charismatic leaders than their predecessors.
Interesting. I think that Lab will be criticised more for propping up Boris than for voting down the deal. If I could imagine the boot being on the other foot (oh and in normal times, obvs) I would be seriously displeased if the Cons voted with Lab for anything. Then again we're far from in normal times. Then again...
"Labour" don't need to prop him up. Corbyn just needs to let 15-20 backbench MPs in highly Leave seats vote for it and only get mild punishment. They might even boost their electoral chances by "standing up" to the leadership for their constituents. Corbyn can then spend the next three years saying the NHS is at risk.
Believe me, the current mood in the Labour Party is such that anyone voting with Johnson will be expelled from the Party. It doesn't matter for people like Hoey and Mann, who are Tories anyway. The rest will toe the line, or else.
Not clear what’s going to come out of the negotiations.
Hard to imagine it’s the legal text so likely to be just an agreement of the outline to a deal.
This would would not nullify the Benn Act .
Exactly. So an extension would need to be requested anyway. That Act is very specific about what has to be agreed and voted on to obviate the need for an extension request.
MPs should be given the full legal text and all the relevant information about the deal before a vote. Legislation passed in haste without proper scrutiny is not a good idea, however much people want to let off steam about stunts and MPs being hypocrites etc.
Not clear what’s going to come out of the negotiations.
Hard to imagine it’s the legal text so likely to be just an agreement of the outline to a deal.
This would would not nullify the Benn Act .
You’re probably right, but on these “last minute deal” things you often have lots of time to draft up stuff while the principals argue/consider. If the EU and UK back room teams have been working together and really want something, then there might be a text. If that text mostly consists of level playing field deletions, and a very few customs/consent provisions then it might be legally cleared and releasable.
Is Marmite either Halal or kosher? Would Vegemite work? Prefer Bovril myself.
Dunno about kosher, but IIRC halal is only concerned with the slaughter of animals providing meat, and there are no other Islamic dietary restrictions other than the prohibition of pork and the consumption of blood.
So Vegemite by not containing any meet is ipso facto halal.
Marmite is of course a by-product of brewing and I presume vegemite is too. Not sure if that makes a difference so long as they don't contain alcohol.
Doesn't Vinegar ? Muslims consume vinegar [ sirqa ] by the gallons.
The refusal of the US to handover the apparent killer of Harry Dunn or provide redress to the Connors after the disgusting abuse of their infant son shows the United States is no longer a friend to the UK. Nor should they any longer be considered a civilized Western country.
You do realise no nation on the planet would “hand over” a citizen in these circumstances without months of patient diplomatic work? Of course you do.
We all dislike Trump. We mustn’t let it blind us when the US is actually just acting like we would.
There is a UK-US Extradition Treaty.
The individual has/had diplomatic immunity. There’s various bits of complexity around that; but all nations guard that religiously. If it doesn’t matter with us because they trust our legal system, then what about France? What about Mexico? What about Egypt? What about Iran?
There’s obviously a line in there somewhere, but it’s better not to try and draw it, and to keep consistent for all countries. We’d do the same.
It’s unimaginable what that family is going through, but it’s not a Trump/US thing.
The technical debate is that she is now back in the US so no longer has diplomatic immunity (the purpose of which is to prevent undue pressure on diplomats)
Wouldn't that open up extradition as a route to follow?
That would depend on the precise terms of the treaty. You will be aware that there was a lot of disquiet at the time it was agreed about its one-sided nature. And if such action was taken the US would no doubt respond by saying that she had immunity. So back to square one.
Mrs Sacoolas could sort this out by doing the decent thing herself, coming back to the UK, speaking to the police and, if action is taken against her, taking her punishment.
Raab's letter said that the US considers that diplomatic immunity is "no longer pertinent" which sounds like weasel wording to me.
The one sided nature of the treaty is to do with the fact that the US authorities don't have to demonstrate a case in the UK, while I believe we have to provide evidential support in the US.
The US approach is considerably undermined by the behavior of the Georgia government in relation to a similar incident in 1997. Georgia did the decent thing. The USA did not.
Not clear what’s going to come out of the negotiations.
Hard to imagine it’s the legal text so likely to be just an agreement of the outline to a deal.
This would would not nullify the Benn Act .
You’re probably right, but on these “last minute deal” things you often have lots of time to draft up stuff while the principals argue/consider. If the EU and UK back room teams have been working together and really want something, then there might be a text. If that text mostly consists of level playing field deletions, and a very few customs/consent provisions then it might be legally cleared and releasable.
But you’re probably right.
You can have for example detail about how customs might work but the legal detail missing . If you look at Mays WA the text just around NI was over 150 pages long full of legal jargon .
Is Marmite either Halal or kosher? Would Vegemite work? Prefer Bovril myself.
Dunno about kosher, but IIRC halal is only concerned with the slaughter of animals providing meat, and there are no other Islamic dietary restrictions other than the prohibition of pork and the consumption of blood.
So Vegemite by not containing any meet is ipso facto halal.
Marmite is of course a by-product of brewing and I presume vegemite is too. Not sure if that makes a difference so long as they don't contain alcohol.
Doesn't Vinegar ? Muslims consume vinegar [ sirqa ] by the gallons.
All this non information is hurting my brain. If as is being rumoured Boris has made concessions as described then this should not get any support from either ERG or the DUP. However at worse they actually seem just lukewarm or split. That either means Boris is not conceding that much or they have lost the will to fight.
On votes surely even with the DUP and Tory rebels Boris has a majority of -1. If he has done a deal many of those rebels will still support him, but several have now just gone for good surely, so he is relying on several Labour rebels. Surely that means even the best deal is going to be tight.
Am I missing anything?
are you defining the "Tory rebels" as the ERG or the ex-whip Tories?
Not clear what’s going to come out of the negotiations.
Hard to imagine it’s the legal text so likely to be just an agreement of the outline to a deal.
This would would not nullify the Benn Act .
The political agreement includes a 3 week extension to tidy up the legal text which makes the Benn act irrelevant and any letter easily ignored by the EU (although doesn't the UK effectively have to accept any date the EU puts forward?)
Boris gets round his 31/10 promise by having an agreement in the legal text that we will leave "as of 31/10" so everything is backdated (although I don't think people will really care if there is a deal and it's just a paperwork exercise at that point).
Has anybody actually done the numbers ? ALL Con's , ALL DUP are 1 short. Plus a few Labour MPs [ I reckon Tory types like Mann, Hoey ]. Max 5. So a few Spartans and a few Rebels can ruin everything.
15 Lab is high when you get down to it. Nick P first identified Kinnock's gang but then seemed to row back on that which leaves us back at 5-6. Could still pass, that said, but I don't see Lab giving Boris hero status no matter people might say "but you wrecked a deal".
Good point. The missing bit of the jigsaw is the rock solid argument the 15 Labour leavers can take back to their local parties to justify why they saved Boris Johnson's bacon.
Not clear what’s going to come out of the negotiations.
Hard to imagine it’s the legal text so likely to be just an agreement of the outline to a deal.
This would would not nullify the Benn Act .
The political agreement includes a 3 week extension to tidy up the legal text which makes the Benn act irrelevant and any letter easily ignored by the EU (although doesn't the UK effectively have to accept any date the EU puts forward?)
Boris gets round his 31/10 promise by having an agreement in the legal text that we will leave "as of 31/10" so everything is backdated (although I don't think people will really care if there is a deal and it's just a paperwork exercise at that point).
Does it ? Johnson has said again the UK is leaving on the 31 st October. His obsession with this date is now becoming unhinged . Does anyone really care if a deal is done and it takes a bit longer to leave .
If Andy Bruce is right, then the deal will be agreed. Issues involving VAT won't scupper it, although they might delay it because of the need to pin down the details.
If Andy Bruce is right, then the deal will be agreed. Issues involving VAT won't scupper it, although they might delay it because of the need to pin down the details.
Surely that can be delegated to a Committee of Clever Blokes Who Give a Fuck?
If Andy Bruce is right, then the deal will be agreed. Issues involving VAT won't scupper it, although they might delay it because of the need to pin down the details.
Surely that can be delegated to a Committee of Clever Blokes Who Give a Fuck?
Is Marmite either Halal or kosher? Would Vegemite work? Prefer Bovril myself.
Dunno about kosher, but IIRC halal is only concerned with the slaughter of animals providing meat, and there are no other Islamic dietary restrictions other than the prohibition of pork and the consumption of blood.
So Vegemite by not containing any meet is ipso facto halal.
Marmite is of course a by-product of brewing and I presume vegemite is too. Not sure if that makes a difference so long as they don't contain alcohol.
The issue with Marmite is that it used to be produced on the same production line as Bovril so could get non kosher contamination. I think that is resolved now.
Donald Trump says he invited parents of Harry Dunn to meet their son's killer Anne Sacoolas at the White House 'only because Boris Johnson asked him to'
If Andy Bruce is right, then the deal will be agreed. Issues involving VAT won't scupper it, although they might delay it because of the need to pin down the details.
I am surprised there are VAT issues given there is slready a VAT border between NI and Ireland.
If Andy Bruce is right, then the deal will be agreed. Issues involving VAT won't scupper it, although they might delay it because of the need to pin down the details.
I am surprised there are VAT issues given there is slready a VAT border between NI and Ireland.
Presumably it's something to do with the fact that the UK will be outside the EU VAT rules.
If Andy Bruce is right, then the deal will be agreed. Issues involving VAT won't scupper it, although they might delay it because of the need to pin down the details.
I am surprised there are VAT issues given there is slready a VAT border between NI and Ireland.
(Almost) completely off topic: sometimes the government does get things right. The operation to get the Thomas Cook holidaymakers home seems to have been very well handled. Another thing which seems very good is the on-line passport renewal service. I applied on Monday, having taken a photo in a digital photo booth. The application process was spectacularly simple, I sent off the old passport Monday afternoon, I got a text confirming they'd received it on Tuesday morning, I got another text confirming everything was in order this morning, and I've just had confirmation that the new passport has been despatched. Pretty slick!
The only slight problemette seems to be that the software which verifies whether your photo complies with the rules seems to be a bit picky. In my case it said that the outline of my head wasn't distinct, but that's because I have near-white hair and the photo has to be against a light background. But you can override the software and submit the photo anyway, which seemed to work fine.
If Andy Bruce is right, then the deal will be agreed. Issues involving VAT won't scupper it, although they might delay it because of the need to pin down the details.
I am surprised there are VAT issues given there is slready a VAT border between NI and Ireland.
Comments
Many years ago my husband was knocked down by a hit and run driver. He was left with quite serious head injuries. It was another passing motorist who helped him, the original driver having fled. Our children were very young at the time. Had there not been a Good Samaritan there I dread to think what the outcome would have been. I simply cannot understand the mentality of someone who walks away from something like that rather than face the music. How do they sleep at night?
I mean, what’s the rush?
I just wonder whether, when it comes down to it, more LP MPs will support the deal (if one appears). There will be a lot of internal pressure for them not to but on the other hand the public will see that the government have pulled the stops out to get a deal and would view LP very dimly indeed if they prove to be the obstacle.
- Voting against a deal
- Voting against no dea
- Voting against an election
They deserved to be completely pilloried and ostracised from public life.
The one sided nature of the treaty is to do with the fact that the US authorities don't have to demonstrate a case in the UK, while I believe we have to provide evidential support in the US.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/news/107206/us-woman-wanted-over-crash-death-no-longer-has-diplomatic
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184440535760719872
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/sep/08/uk.conservatives1
The US's response and that of Mrs Sacoolas has shown arrogance. It must hurt the Dunns immensely.
For their own sake I hope they find the comfort they need.
Not that I have even the tiniest shred of sympathy for those caught in this particular case.
To say nothing of the battle of Rastarkalv in 955.
The absolute is to prevent harassment when they are in the country where they are acting as diplomats. Once they are out of the country there is harassment risk therefore they should be subject to extradition as normal. (IANAL...)
Will the DUP really allow an Irish Sea customs border? Also dubious the number of Lab votes will get into double figures.
Plus they will be facing Johnson and Swinson, who are far more charismatic leaders than their predecessors.
She was scared, no doubt advised by the embassy and lawyers to leave and did what she was told.
But once she had the time to get home and reflect on the situation she should have done what you said.
(I'll see what my wife can find out from her friends at the 'embassy'..)
But O'Mara doesn't turn up, so it's a tie and …. deciding vote Mr J Bercow.
On votes surely even with the DUP and Tory rebels Boris has a majority of -1. If he has done a deal many of those rebels will still support him, but several have now just gone for good surely, so he is relying on several Labour rebels. Surely that means even the best deal is going to be tight.
Am I missing anything?
https://m.jpost.com/Diaspora/Kosher-Marmite-to-reappear-in-Britain-406405
Hard to imagine it’s the legal text so likely to be just an agreement of the outline to a deal.
This would would not nullify the Benn Act .
It makes Brexit seem so parochial.
MPs should be given the full legal text and all the relevant information about the deal before a vote. Legislation passed in haste without proper scrutiny is not a good idea, however much people want to let off steam about stunts and MPs being hypocrites etc.
But you’re probably right.
Special relationship my arse.
It’s hard to imagine they could have this ready .
That is the true significance of recent opinion polls.
"So Boris’s big master plan is to accept something the EU offered us 2 years ago and to bribe the DUP into accepting it. Genius."
Except not quite true, is it. His 'master plan' was in fact about one thing and one thing only. Becoming PM.
Boris gets round his 31/10 promise by having an agreement in the legal text that we will leave "as of 31/10" so everything is backdated (although I don't think people will really care if there is a deal and it's just a paperwork exercise at that point).
Donald Trump says he invited parents of Harry Dunn to meet their son's killer Anne Sacoolas at the White House 'only because Boris Johnson asked him to'
Apparently.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/students-call-to-block-manchester-gandhi-statue-because-hes-racist-a4262711.html
The DUP wanted to basically have a veto and an opt in scenario .
How different this all could have been.
The only slight problemette seems to be that the software which verifies whether your photo complies with the rules seems to be a bit picky. In my case it said that the outline of my head wasn't distinct, but that's because I have near-white hair and the photo has to be against a light background. But you can override the software and submit the photo anyway, which seemed to work fine.
(I didn't submit the photo of my avatar, obv.)