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Good to hear from you BigG! Hope the trip was pleasant!Big_G_NorthWales said:
HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be crediblerottenborough said:
"schizophrenia is genetic"HYUFD said:
Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.The_Taxman said:
Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.HYUFD said:
Factually incorrectThe_Taxman said:lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!
https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
Really? Entirely?
We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.
Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
Mental health is a bit of a taboo. I have family with the same problems as i or worse! My brother has schizoprenia and autism but he refuses to see that anything is wrong with him! He is agressive and can be violent! He attacked me in the last couple of years but the police would not prosecute and the mental health services said he was not bad enough! Mental health problems are costly but not all are as tragic as my bro who survives on £70 a week and I and others subsides him. The nutters would say F. Him but he is ill!0 -
Do you know how hard it is for someone with serious mental health problems to even get a job?HYUFD said:
Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying soBig_G_NorthWales said:
HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be crediblerottenborough said:
"schizophrenia is genetic"HYUFD said:
Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.The_Taxman said:
Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.HYUFD said:
Factually incorrectThe_Taxman said:lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!
https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
Really? Entirely?
We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.
Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues0 -
Is the DUP sometime going to tell us what they do want instead of what they don't?malcolmg said:
surprise surpriseAlastairMeeks said:
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Like most people my life and family have been affected by various episodes of mental ill health. I don’t disagree with what you say. Of course that is true. But it’s also the case that chaos and a lack of structure can cause people to indulge in dangerous and self destructive behaviours. I’ve seen it very close up.Mysticrose said:DavidL said:
"There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms."
I'm trying not to get too angry at the ignorance in this comment.
For many people mental ill health is exacerbated by work environments. This includes, but is not limited to, those suffering from severe PTSD.
If you don't know what you are talking about, which you clearly don't, please belt up.
Written by someone at the sharp end ...0 -
New CBS Canadian election projection:
Con 140
Lib 135
BQ 33
NDP 25
Grn 4
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/0 -
Never! Never!algarkirk said:
Is the DUP sometime going to tell us what they do want instead of what they don't?malcolmg said:
surprise surpriseAlastairMeeks said:0 -
I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.0
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As only a casual follower of american politics, and from the clips that get circulated, she at least has the potential of it in a way Hilary did not.HYUFD said:
Charisma is key, more than both.Barnesian said:Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.
Likeability swings votes more than policies.
It appeals to the heart not the head.
Trump has charisma, Bill Clinton had charisma, George W Bush had charisma, Obama did to an extent, not sure if Warren does
Without intending to be memey - nothing has changed. Until the DUP shift, and/or Labour leavers do, we're still in the same old Brexit cycle we always were. It's too tight to rely on all the spatrans playing ball even if their bosom buddies in the DUP do not, and even those who do not like the DUP use their opposition as an excuse not to consider things too.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
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Seems to be always angry when people don't agree with their opinions, under the mistaken impression that he/she is so smart he/she is always right. Sadly mistaken.Andy_JS said:
There's no point in getting angry at someone else's opinion.Mysticrose said:DavidL said:
"There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms."
I'm trying not to get too angry at the ignorance in this comment.
For many people mental ill health is exacerbated by work environments. This includes, but is not limited to, those suffering from severe PTSD.
If you don't know what you are talking about, which you clearly don't, please belt up.
Written by someone at the sharp end ...0 -
They do, they just want impossible things, also while wanting to constantly moan how everyone else misunderstands NI and they are the only ones who care about it or the UK.algarkirk said:
Is the DUP sometime going to tell us what they do want instead of what they don't?malcolmg said:
surprise surpriseAlastairMeeks said:0 -
I yield to no-one in my contempt for the DUP. But their needs are simple. Bit of palm-greasing and no different treatment from Britain. Except for more palm greasing than's legal in Britain and a little light brutality towards the Taigs to keep them in their place.algarkirk said:
Is the DUP sometime going to tell us what they do want instead of what they don't?malcolmg said:
surprise surprise
Varadkar may be technically a Hindu or even an atheist. But he's clearly a Taig atheist. Johnson (who, remember was baptised a Taig, so he's beneath contempt anyway) didn't treat Varadkar with enough contempt so the Johnson plan's doomed whatever it says.0 -
The DUP are much clearer about what they want than most Leavers.0
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Can't both be true?Mysticrose said:DavidL said:
"There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms."
I'm trying not to get too angry at the ignorance in this comment.
For many people mental ill health is exacerbated by work environments. This includes, but is not limited to, those suffering from severe PTSD.
If you don't know what you are talking about, which you clearly don't, please belt up.
Written by someone at the sharp end ...0 -
This gives us an excellent opportunity to moan about the year 2000 being included in the 21st century.FrancisUrquhart said:And to think I was shocked to find people drank Prosecco for Christmas lunch....
UK's best-selling albums (2000-2019)
1) Adele - 21
2) Amy Winehouse - Back To Black
3) Adele - 25
4) Ed Sheeran - x
5) Ed Sheeran - ÷
6) James Blunt - Back To Bedlam
7) Leona Lewis - Spirit
8) Michael Buble - Crazy Love
9) Dido - No Angel
10) David Gray - White Ladder
Ed Sheeran appears in the top five twice too, while other artists in the top 20 include Coldplay, Kings of Leon, Lady Gaga and Scissor Sisters.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-500134913 -
If a person is mentally ill or have a personality disorder, then it becomes obvious at an interview. My Bro for instance did not wash for instance and smelt at a volountary placement and was asked not to come back! He still cannot understand this even though i told him later he stank! He thought they were trying to use him! I have tried telling him he is ill but he refuses to believe something is wrong....Benpointer said:
Indeed he hasn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You haven't a clueHYUFD said:
Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying soBig_G_NorthWales said:
HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be crediblerottenborough said:
"schizophrenia is genetic"HYUFD said:
Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.The_Taxman said:
Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.HYUFD said:
Factually incorrectThe_Taxman said:lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!
https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
Really? Entirely?
Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
I have been talking to three people in the last two weeks with mental health issues, all are being pressured by DWP to seek work their doctors say thay are not fit for, all have mental health issues following brain injuries or essential operations.
Sure, work can improve mental health for some but if employers won't employ you, being pressured to seek work is not helpful.
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Oooh! Yes please. It must be nearly 20 years since I had that argument.SandyRentool said:
This gives us an excellent opportunity to moan about the year 2000 being included in the 21st century.FrancisUrquhart said:And to think I was shocked to find people drank Prosecco for Christmas lunch....
UK's best-selling albums (2000-2019)
1) Adele - 21
2) Amy Winehouse - Back To Black
3) Adele - 25
4) Ed Sheeran - x
5) Ed Sheeran - ÷
6) James Blunt - Back To Bedlam
7) Leona Lewis - Spirit
8) Michael Buble - Crazy Love
9) Dido - No Angel
10) David Gray - White Ladder
Ed Sheeran appears in the top five twice too, while other artists in the top 20 include Coldplay, Kings of Leon, Lady Gaga and Scissor Sisters.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-500134910 -
Not from NI, so may be oversimplifying, but my impression is that the DUP want a non-border between GB and NI. In the same way that nationalists want a non-border between NI and RoI. Both of those are important for the identities of the people they represent, neither is impossible, and while the UK has been in the EU, it's been possible to have both. Trouble is that England and Wales voted to leave the EU, assuming that none of this Ireland stuff would be a problem. (E.g. the Dan Hannan "Brexit will be great" thinkpiece which assumed that Ireland would just follow us out.)kle4 said:
They do, they just want impossible things, while being to constantly moan how everyone else misunderstands NI and they are the only ones who care about it or the UK.algarkirk said:
Is the DUP sometime going to tell us what they do want instead of what they don't?malcolmg said:
surprise surpriseAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Well said. Companies talk a lot about wanting to be open about mental health etc but are often not quite as willing to give a chance to potential employees who have suffered periods of mental illness and may therefore have a chequered CV.DougSeal said:
Do you know how hard it is for someone with serious mental health problems to even get a job?HYUFD said:
Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying soBig_G_NorthWales said:
HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be crediblerottenborough said:
"schizophrenia is genetic"HYUFD said:
Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.The_Taxman said:
Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.HYUFD said:
Factually incorrectThe_Taxman said:lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!
https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
Really? Entirely?
We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.
Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues1 -
He will be finished as PM if he does. He will alienate most of his Leave support without bringing over any significant amount of Remain support. I really don't think he is that dumb.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
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Thanks to the people who lent Corbyn just enough votes in GE2017 to give the DUP the whip hand over the entire Brexit process ever since.
Well played, chaps.0 -
Money!!!AlastairMeeks said:The DUP are much clearer about what they want than most Leavers.
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It all depends on the Brexit supporting media!If BJ cannot deliver a deal. Who can?Richard_Tyndall said:
He will be finished as PM if he does. He will alienate most of his Leave support without bringing over any significant amount of Remain support. I really don't think he is that dumb.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
BJ said before the EU referundum, that if a better deal than the one we had in the EU could not be obtained,then we should stay! It might be the natural concequence we stay and then where willyou be?0 -
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.0 -
Keep buying the baked beans.HYUFD said:
I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.AlastairMeeks said:
So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached0 -
The really interesting thing is that the Prairie provinces and Québécois nationalists are trying to pull apart the unwritten parts of the Canadian constitutional settlement, basically around redistribution of resources and federal language policy. That particular result of seats would be almost intractable as one would need the support of either Conservatives or the Bloc. But a Conservative minority tolerated by the Bloc could work, at least in the sense of removing Trudeau and surviving.Andy_JS said:New CBS Canadian election projection:
Con 140
Lib 135
BQ 33
NDP 25
Grn 4
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/0 -
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.1 -
Immaterial. Delivering Brexit is the only thing Boris has going for him. Even most Leavers are not enamoured by him and certainly his support amongst Remain voters is tiny. If he betrays the Leave voters he is finished.The_Taxman said:
It all depends on the Brexit supporting media!If BJ cannot deliver a deal. Who can?Richard_Tyndall said:
He will be finished as PM if he does. He will alienate most of his Leave support without bringing over any significant amount of Remain support. I really don't think he is that dumb.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
BJ said before the EU referundum, that if a better deal than the one we had in the EU could not be obtained,then we should stay! It might be the natural concequence we stay and then where willyou be?0 -
Nicky Morgan’s interview was amusing this morningScrapheap_as_was said:Trying to get any deal done in this social media age must be so much harder than it used to. All the media looking to get a newsworthy response from someone saying why something can't be done. Like parliament its easy to pick holes in things and be against everything. Encourages stasis. News is nearly always bad news and it's not that dissimilar.
“What do you think about X”
“It’s irresponsible to speculate before we have the whole picture”
“But what about X. Isn’t it important?”
Repeat A
Ok how about Y?
Repeat A In different words
Etc etc0 -
Because she was aware enough to know the consequences.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.0 -
True, but Pelosi did a masterful job of having the vast majority of candidates repeat endlessly mantras about healthcare/preexisting conditions/prescription drugs and not mention the woke stuff.EPG said:No Democratic party in history was more PC/"woke" than the Pelosi House caucus elected in 2018. Whether you like them or not, they commanded a big majority, so I can see how any candidate from the Democrat side has a chance of winning and will bet accordingly.
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But why to an Italian newspaper?malcolmg said:
surprise surpriseAlastairMeeks said:
Perhaps because they will fall for old tricks and report uncritically?0 -
I'd imagine May was paranoid about having supported Remain and wanted to avoid any suggestion that she was still tainted.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.0 -
I think BJ is finished either way! Fundamentally he has the same problems as TM and worse! You might not like it but he does not have a majority! It goes back to the people imo. Do people vote for a worse deal than we have now? I think people will vote to stay and any vote will happen after a relaxation of public spending....Richard_Tyndall said:
Immaterial. Delivering Brexit is the only thing Boris has going for him. Even most Leavers are not enamoured by him and certainly his support amongst Remain voters is tiny. If he betrays the Leave voters he is finished.The_Taxman said:
It all depends on the Brexit supporting media!If BJ cannot deliver a deal. Who can?Richard_Tyndall said:
He will be finished as PM if he does. He will alienate most of his Leave support without bringing over any significant amount of Remain support. I really don't think he is that dumb.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
BJ said before the EU referundum, that if a better deal than the one we had in the EU could not be obtained,then we should stay! It might be the natural concequence we stay and then where willyou be?0 -
AOC, Omar, Tlaib and Pressley were the unavoidable faces of the 2018 Democrats. We can all compose stories where things happen, but the non-white women element of the 2018 campaign was an unavoidable narrative (partly because the GOP thought it might be a winning narrative (!) ).PaulM said:
True, but Pelosi did a masterful job of having the vast majority of candidates repeat endlessly mantras about healthcare/preexisting conditions/prescription drugs and not mention the woke stuff.EPG said:No Democratic party in history was more PC/"woke" than the Pelosi House caucus elected in 2018. Whether you like them or not, they commanded a big majority, so I can see how any candidate from the Democrat side has a chance of winning and will bet accordingly.
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I thought her best move would have been general election. But the party were not about to let her have another stab at that.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
I think she might well have won it. Properly, I mean - a majority.0 -
Exactly right... Its a rampaging thirsty search to find people to contradict plans first and serves to stop momentum in anything ever actually being positively put forward. Private francois is a perfect example of this rentagob during mays time and the race to get a microphone to him ASAP was always a key objective for the media.Charles said:
Nicky Morgan’s interview was amusing this morningScrapheap_as_was said:Trying to get any deal done in this social media age must be so much harder than it used to. All the media looking to get a newsworthy response from someone saying why something can't be done. Like parliament its easy to pick holes in things and be against everything. Encourages stasis. News is nearly always bad news and it's not that dissimilar.
“What do you think about X”
“It’s irresponsible to speculate before we have the whole picture”
“But what about X. Isn’t it important?”
Repeat A
Ok how about Y?
Repeat A In different words
Etc etc0 -
Privately, they probably want to stay in the EU and can't wait for more hung parliaments & C&S agreements so that ~£2 billion/year gets transferred from London to NI.kinabalu said:
A hard border on the island of Ireland.algarkirk said:Is the DUP sometime going to tell us what they do want instead of what they don't?
Or such I sometimes suspect.
NI doesn't need it compared to regions like Anglesey which are far poorer. But Wales doesn't pose a remote risk of a new bombing campaign or international relations being disrupted.
The Good Friday Agreement in effect created dual nationality for anyone in NI, a quantum border. The DUP can happily claim to be living in part of the UK but Sinn Fein or the Taisoeach can happily claim to have jurisdiction over the island of Ireland - which will be united again one day, after 100 years of division.0 -
As anyone who has an inch of democracy in them has to believe. You can't say a result will be implemented and then say it isn't enough after the side you dislike wins. Democracy requires being free and fair.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.2 -
Partly for the same reason that I'm ambivalent about it: it'll be a sh*tshow. Even deciding/agreeing what should go on the sodding ballot paper will require the wisdom of a thousand Solomons. And then the politicians will have to (re)align themselves, which will cause more party strife. And some Leavers might boycott the poll, leading to questions over its legitimacy. And so on. It'll be a nightmare.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.
But mainly in her case I think because she really believed that parliament and government ought to respect the referendum outcome, so much so that she was willing to become a single-issue PM and devote three years of her life to finding a politically satisfactory way of doing so.0 -
What I like is democracy. What you propose would destroy it.The_Taxman said:
I think BJ is finished either way! Fundamentally he has the same problems as TM and worse! You might not like it but he does not have a majority! It goes back to the people imo. Do people vote for a worse deal than we have now? I think people will vote to stay and any vote will happen after a relaxation of public spending....Richard_Tyndall said:
Immaterial. Delivering Brexit is the only thing Boris has going for him. Even most Leavers are not enamoured by him and certainly his support amongst Remain voters is tiny. If he betrays the Leave voters he is finished.The_Taxman said:
It all depends on the Brexit supporting media!If BJ cannot deliver a deal. Who can?Richard_Tyndall said:
He will be finished as PM if he does. He will alienate most of his Leave support without bringing over any significant amount of Remain support. I really don't think he is that dumb.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
BJ said before the EU referundum, that if a better deal than the one we had in the EU could not be obtained,then we should stay! It might be the natural concequence we stay and then where willyou be?0 -
They have had 40 months to deliver the referendum result. It hasn't happened and maybe can’t what do you suggest. People go on about parliament telling us what they don’t want but what do people want? Don’t just say leave tell us how it can be done without fucking the UKGabs2 said:
As anyone who has an inch of democracy in them has to believe. You can't say a result will be implemented and then say it isn't enough after the side you dislike wins. Democracy requires being free and fair.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.0 -
Yes, they were charmed into being snowflakes for a few days but it may be wearing off. They may however just be doing the European thing of holding on to the 11th hour to get the best deal.AlastairMeeks said:The DUP are much clearer about what they want than most Leavers.
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She needed certainties to plan her strategy against. Unlike most politicians - including Johnson - she's always hated the apparent sloppiness of a changing external environment.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.
Anybody know why?
I think she saw dealing with the messy reality of politics - especially supporters and opponents forever changing their position - as essentially unprofessional. Another referendum, even if it appeared to endorse Leave, would inevitably throw new nuances into the soup she was trying to navigate through.
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The Conservatives won’t win if they don’t win Ontario.EPG said:
The really interesting thing is that the Prairie provinces and Québécois nationalists are trying to pull apart the unwritten parts of the Canadian constitutional settlement, basically around redistribution of resources and federal language policy. That particular result of seats would be almost intractable as one would need the support of either Conservatives or the Bloc. But a Conservative minority tolerated by the Bloc could work, at least in the sense of removing Trudeau and surviving.Andy_JS said:New CBS Canadian election projection:
Con 140
Lib 135
BQ 33
NDP 25
Grn 4
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
Small Liberal majority is my sense.0 -
Does anyone know why Morgan and Patel and Grayling were made Ministers at all in the first place.Charles said:
Nicky Morgan’s interview was amusing this morningScrapheap_as_was said:Trying to get any deal done in this social media age must be so much harder than it used to. All the media looking to get a newsworthy response from someone saying why something can't be done. Like parliament its easy to pick holes in things and be against everything. Encourages stasis. News is nearly always bad news and it's not that dissimilar.
“What do you think about X”
“It’s irresponsible to speculate before we have the whole picture”
“But what about X. Isn’t it important?”
Repeat A
Ok how about Y?
Repeat A In different words
Etc etc
0 -
If only it were that easy. They'll take that too, but for all I think they are frustrating and very self righteous, they are generally pretty clear about other demands, reasonable or not.OldKingCole said:
Money!!!AlastairMeeks said:The DUP are much clearer about what they want than most Leavers.
0 -
If she was confident of winning such a concern would have evaporated, the same way concerns about a GE evaporated when she thought she would win.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.0 -
There was no one else vaguely capable who would sign the no deal pledge and voted for him in the leadership electionsurbiton19 said:
Does anyone know why Morgan and Patel and Grayling were made Ministers at all in the first place.Charles said:
Nicky Morgan’s interview was amusing this morningScrapheap_as_was said:Trying to get any deal done in this social media age must be so much harder than it used to. All the media looking to get a newsworthy response from someone saying why something can't be done. Like parliament its easy to pick holes in things and be against everything. Encourages stasis. News is nearly always bad news and it's not that dissimilar.
“What do you think about X”
“It’s irresponsible to speculate before we have the whole picture”
“But what about X. Isn’t it important?”
Repeat A
Ok how about Y?
Repeat A In different words
Etc etc0 -
I suppose she could have held a referendum on her deal (Yes or No) without defining what would happen should she lose. But would there have been the votes in parliament for that?kle4 said:
If she was confident of winning such a concern would have evaporated, the same way concerns about a GE evaporated when she thought she would win.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.0 -
Parliament have had plenty of opportunities to deliver Brexit but have not done so because MPs are more interested in their own.petty politicking. There are many forms of Brexit that are deliverable. The problem is not Brexit, it is the scumbag MPs on all sides.nichomar said:
They have had 40 months to deliver the referendum result. It hasn't happened and maybe can’t what do you suggest. People go on about parliament telling us what they don’t want but what do people want? Don’t just say leave tell us how it can be done without fucking the UKGabs2 said:
As anyone who has an inch of democracy in them has to believe. You can't say a result will be implemented and then say it isn't enough after the side you dislike wins. Democracy requires being free and fair.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.0 -
I think you're arguing for what you (and I) would like. We'd both like a free trade, centrist Democrat, who believed in NATO and the Western Alliance.Casino_Royale said:
A centrist candidate would still get New York and California. It’s the swing states I’d be interested in.Nigelb said:
Which argument ignores variability in turnout.Casino_Royale said:Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.
A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.
But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.
It’s equally likely a centrist candidate does a Hillary in a few key states.
Klobuchar I’m sure would make a very sensible president - but let’s face it, she simply isn’t greatly endowed with charisma.
I’m also not greatly convinced by the idea of a ‘surge of soft Republican votes’ just waiting to switch sides.
Besides which my point was wider than just the narrower tactical one: if a Democratic wants to make serious inroads into the Republican voting coalition nationwide then that’s what they need to do.
Otherwise there’ll be two large sticky opposing (and mutually hating) blocs around for a very long time, with only very modest swing between them determining who wins at election time.
We'd like someone like Klobachar or Buttigieg.
But the issue with the US last time around was not really that Trump won over Democrats in the Mid-West. The issue was that Democrats didn't come out to vote.
Take Wisconsin. President Trump unexpected won it.
But he got fewer votes than Romney! Think about that for a second. Romney is derided by many on here as a terrible candidate. But he got more votes than Trump in Wisconsin, despite the US having actually grown its voting age population meaningfully between 2012 and 2016.
Hillary Clinton was a truly appalling candidate. And what the Democratic candidate needs to do is to persuade their supporters to come out and vote. So maybe a bit of appeal to the base matters.0 -
While it would be nice to think of a principled politician - given how few there are - I suspect the real reason is it would have split the Tories from top to bottom, caused her government to implode and let Labour in.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.
And it would still, incidentally, which is why Johnson will not do it. He may however be privately happy if Labour force one on him.0 -
The problem that President Trump has is that the midwest is seeing job losses right now. Payrolls in Iowa, in Wisconsin, in Michigan, and in Minnesota are all down year-over-year. He needs that to turn around. Because if he's not delivering on his signature promise - i.e. jobs in the rust belt, then why vote for him?EPG said:No Democratic party in history was more PC/"woke" than the Pelosi House caucus elected in 2018. Whether you like them or not, they commanded a big majority, so I can see how any candidate from the Democrat side has a chance of winning and will bet accordingly.
0 -
That's not far off where I was last night. The NDP leader did well in the debate and that has bolstered his party's position as a solid third and they are back in the high teens while the Liberals and Conservatives are tied in the low 30s.Andy_JS said:New CBS Canadian election projection:
Con 140
Lib 135
BQ 33
NDP 25
Grn 4
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
Tonight's Nanos poll for example has the Liberals down two and the Conservatives down one with the NDP up three to 18. A Dart/MARU poll had the NDP at 20% with the Liberals on just 28% and the Conservatives on 33%.
We really need a poll from Ontario which has more than a third of all the ridings and where the main battles will be fought. The Liberals won 80 seats last time, the Conservatives just 33 and the NDP 8. The Liberals won 45% to the Conservatives 36%.
Could the Conservatives take 20 seats off the Liberals in Ontario - that would wipe out Trudeau's majority but Scheer would be a long way from a majority himself?
0 -
No. Any confirmatory referendum would have to have a definite course of action for both options.tlg86 said:
I suppose she could have held a referendum on her deal (Yes or No) without defining what would happen should she lose. But would there have been the votes in parliament for that?kle4 said:
If she was confident of winning such a concern would have evaporated, the same way concerns about a GE evaporated when she thought she would win.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.
Incidentally, there is another problem. Her party would probably be quite happy with 'Deal or No Deal' but Parliament would insist on 'Deal or Revoke,' which would certainly be unacceptable to the grassroots.0 -
Oooh, I don't know. It seems these days it's a prerequisite for the highest positions.DougSeal said:
Do you know how hard it is for someone with serious mental health problems to even get a job?HYUFD said:
Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying soBig_G_NorthWales said:
HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be crediblerottenborough said:
"schizophrenia is genetic"HYUFD said:
Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.The_Taxman said:
Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.HYUFD said:
Factually incorrectThe_Taxman said:lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!
https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
Really? Entirely?
We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.
Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues0 -
Boris is in a bind. (Couldn't happen to a nicer fella.) For all his no-deal bravado, I think he wants a deal. Let's say a deal is agreed with Brussels and he brings it back to parliament (ignoring the timing issue for now). The DUP are against, and therefore the Spartans are against. A small number of Labour MPs are so desperate that they'll vote for it, but I think Corbyn will be able to keep this number quite low since he can show them that various community/business groups etc. are against it. So Boris doesn't have the numbers. He could threaten the Spartans with having the whip removed - what would they do? And how wise would that be - it would effectively narrow the party right down on the eve of a General Election.kle4 said:
As only a casual follower of american politics, and from the clips that get circulated, she at least has the potential of it in a way Hilary did not.HYUFD said:
Charisma is key, more than both.Barnesian said:Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.
Likeability swings votes more than policies.
It appeals to the heart not the head.
Trump has charisma, Bill Clinton had charisma, George W Bush had charisma, Obama did to an extent, not sure if Warren does
Without intending to be memey - nothing has changed. Until the DUP shift, and/or Labour leavers do, we're still in the same old Brexit cycle we always were. It's too tight to rely on all the spatrans playing ball even if their bosom buddies in the DUP do not, and even those who do not like the DUP use their opposition as an excuse not to consider things too.AlastairMeeks said:
Does he take a chance on getting the numbers, and so extend A50 to give time to seal the deal? If he can get away with it (ie. not lose too many supporters to Farage) this would have the advantage of leaving his options open, including a referendum. From the political pov he doesn't want a referendum though - it'd throw away his poll lead over Labour, and the Brexit Party would be massively resurgent.
So, given the complexities and the general fedupness, I still think he might try for No Deal. British voters are a queer lot - even if No Deal is terrible, there's still a good chance that he'll win the general election.0 -
If you want to promote Klobuchar, Robert, you need to work on the spelling.rcs1000 said:
I think you're arguing for what you (and I) would like. We'd both like a free trade, centrist Democrat, who believed in NATO and the Western Alliance.Casino_Royale said:
A centrist candidate would still get New York and California. It’s the swing states I’d be interested in.Nigelb said:
Which argument ignores variability in turnout.Casino_Royale said:Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.
A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.
But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.
It’s equally likely a centrist candidate does a Hillary in a few key states.
Klobuchar I’m sure would make a very sensible president - but let’s face it, she simply isn’t greatly endowed with charisma.
I’m also not greatly convinced by the idea of a ‘surge of soft Republican votes’ just waiting to switch sides.
Besides which my point was wider than just the narrower tactical one: if a Democratic wants to make serious inroads into the Republican voting coalition nationwide then that’s what they need to do.
Otherwise there’ll be two large sticky opposing (and mutually hating) blocs around for a very long time, with only very modest swing between them determining who wins at election time.
We'd like someone like Klobachar or Buttigieg.
But the issue with the US last time around was not really that Trump won over Democrats in the Mid-West. The issue was that Democrats didn't come out to vote.
Take Wisconsin. President Trump unexpected won it.
But he got fewer votes than Romney! Think about that for a second. Romney is derided by many on here as a terrible candidate. But he got more votes than Trump in Wisconsin, despite the US having actually grown its voting age population meaningfully between 2012 and 2016.
Hillary Clinton was a truly appalling candidate. And what the Democratic candidate needs to do is to persuade their supporters to come out and vote. So maybe a bit of appeal to the base matters.
Buttercup you have ok.0 -
Disturbing to reflect that the three front runners have a combined age of 224.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Still well behind the Rolling Stones,ydoethur said:
Disturbing to reflect that the three front runners have a combined age of 224.Theuniondivvie said:1 -
While I have no doubt the Rolling Stones are all quite capable of matching Trump's lunacy after a few sniffs of whatever they're on now, they don't have their fingers on a nuclear button!Theuniondivvie said:
Still well behind the Rolling Stones,ydoethur said:
Disturbing to reflect that the three front runners have a combined age of 224.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Andrea Leadsom helpfully detailing some of the freedoms UK citizens and businesses are about to lose, as well as the new red tape they will have to deal with. Sunlit uplands.
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1181948079467053056?s=210 -
Just reflect on this thought:
Every single one of those three was born before the Soviet Union became a nuclear power.
Two of them were born during the Second World War.
That's how old they are.
Admittedly the fourth one is only slightly older than me, but...0 -
When she made those videos, was she speaking as a mother?SouthamObserver said:Andrea Leadsom helpfully detailing some of the freedoms UK citizens and businesses are about to lose, as well as the new red tape they will have to deal with. Sunlit uplands.
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1181948079467053056?s=210 -
I’d like to think that Americans will look at Trump’s shameful betrayal of the Kurds and conclude that he is not fit to be President of their country. We should go nowhere near him. It is clear he would betray us and anyone else at the drop of a hat, too.1
-
Faction balancing and personal loyaltiessurbiton19 said:
Does anyone know why Morgan and Patel and Grayling were made Ministers at all in the first place.Charles said:
Nicky Morgan’s interview was amusing this morningScrapheap_as_was said:Trying to get any deal done in this social media age must be so much harder than it used to. All the media looking to get a newsworthy response from someone saying why something can't be done. Like parliament its easy to pick holes in things and be against everything. Encourages stasis. News is nearly always bad news and it's not that dissimilar.
“What do you think about X”
“It’s irresponsible to speculate before we have the whole picture”
“But what about X. Isn’t it important?”
Repeat A
Ok how about Y?
Repeat A In different words
Etc etc0 -
Warren is a baby.ydoethur said:
Disturbing to reflect that the three front runners have a combined age of 224.Theuniondivvie said:
0 -
And corrosive to democracyydoethur said:
No. Any confirmatory referendum would have to have a definite course of action for both options.tlg86 said:
I suppose she could have held a referendum on her deal (Yes or No) without defining what would happen should she lose. But would there have been the votes in parliament for that?kle4 said:
If she was confident of winning such a concern would have evaporated, the same way concerns about a GE evaporated when she thought she would win.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.
Incidentally, there is another problem. Her party would probably be quite happy with 'Deal or No Deal' but Parliament would insist on 'Deal or Revoke,' which would certainly be unacceptable to the grassroots.0 -
It is an interesting contrast. We think of Corbyn as getting on a bit for a PM, but he’s a baby in US terms. And yet we used to do old PMs. Is it the need to be in Parliament and the fact that those who are going to make it to the top are going to do it younger, I wonder? Back in the day I guess it was usual for MPs to have had another career first, and be younger.ydoethur said:Just reflect on this thought:
Every single one of those three was born before the Soviet Union became a nuclear power.
Two of them were born during the Second World War.
That's how old they are.
Admittedly the fourth one is only slightly older than me, but...0 -
Anyone who continues to give him the benefit of the doubt has something wrong with them. I can still see an argument to respect the office, and keep links with the country, but the office holder? Yuck.SouthamObserver said:I’d like to think that Americans will look at Trump’s shameful betrayal of the Kurds and conclude that he is not fit to be President of their country. We should go nowhere near him. It is clear he would betray us and anyone else at the drop of a hat, too.
0 -
We haven't had too many PMs in their seventies. I think I'm right in saying there were three in the twentieth century - Salisbury, Chamberlain and Churchill. There were a few more in the nineteenth century, including Palmerston who was the only person to become PM for the first time when over 70.Time_to_Leave said:
It is an interesting contrast. We think of Corbyn as getting on a bit for a PM, but he’s a baby in US terms. And yet we used to do old PMs. Is it the need to be in Parliament and the fact that those who are going to make it to the top are going to do it younger, I wonder? Back in the day I guess it was usual for MPs to have had another career first, and be younger.ydoethur said:Just reflect on this thought:
Every single one of those three was born before the Soviet Union became a nuclear power.
Two of them were born during the Second World War.
That's how old they are.
Admittedly the fourth one is only slightly older than me, but...
Meanwhile, the USA have had three presidents only aged over 70 - Eisenhower, Reagan and Trump.0 -
Well, all paths now are corrosive to democracy. But in any case, that would I fear bother a party leader less than splits within their own party.Charles said:
And corrosive to democracyydoethur said:
No. Any confirmatory referendum would have to have a definite course of action for both options.tlg86 said:
I suppose she could have held a referendum on her deal (Yes or No) without defining what would happen should she lose. But would there have been the votes in parliament for that?kle4 said:
If she was confident of winning such a concern would have evaporated, the same way concerns about a GE evaporated when she thought she would win.RobD said:
She was probably of the view the first one has to enacted before going onto another.Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the most mystifying aspects of May's Premiership was her hostility to the notion of a second referendum. Apparently the suggestion was one of the few things that would make her angry.williamglenn said:I'm starting to think Johnson intends to pivot to a second referendum. It was May's obvious way out at the beginning of the year, but she didn't have the political capital.
Anybody know why? It always seemed to me one of the less disastrous outcomes, amogst the many.
Incidentally, there is another problem. Her party would probably be quite happy with 'Deal or No Deal' but Parliament would insist on 'Deal or Revoke,' which would certainly be unacceptable to the grassroots.0 -
-
Do you know, I'm thinking that, as for most would be bullies, Trump is weak as well as unprincipled, and had his arm twisted by Erdogen.SouthamObserver said:I’d like to think that Americans will look at Trump’s shameful betrayal of the Kurds and conclude that he is not fit to be President of their country. We should go nowhere near him. It is clear he would betray us and anyone else at the drop of a hat, too.
P/S Is (nearly) everyone watching "Strictly"?0 -
My default position would be that if Paul Mason is opposed to something it's probably the right course of action.Scott_P said:
However, in this case since we don't even have a 'Boris Johnson Deal,' he's talking rubbish anyway.0 -
I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.0
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0
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Just another gobby twat.Scott_P said:0 -
Hmmm...will anyone take bets on how long it takes Facebook to ban her, her ads and her pet tortoise Alan?Scott_P said:Not sure if this is a great idea
https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/11830198978041978880 -
Blanchet and Scheer can't stand each other so cannot see that happeningEPG said:
The really interesting thing is that the Prairie provinces and Québécois nationalists are trying to pull apart the unwritten parts of the Canadian constitutional settlement, basically around redistribution of resources and federal language policy. That particular result of seats would be almost intractable as one would need the support of either Conservatives or the Bloc. But a Conservative minority tolerated by the Bloc could work, at least in the sense of removing Trudeau and surviving.Andy_JS said:New CBS Canadian election projection:
Con 140
Lib 135
BQ 33
NDP 25
Grn 4
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-blanchet-share-fiery-exchange-1.53174360 -
I don't think anyone is writing Trump off. He's the incumbent President. And incumbents tend to be reelected.PrinceofTaranto said:I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.
But we oughtn't to ignore his challenges too.
The rust belt is probably back in recession. And he needs to win the rust belt if he's going to be reelected.
His unfavourable numbers are terrible.
And Hillary won't be his opponent next year.
Betfair currently has him at about 2.5 to win in 2020. Given the risk of health problems or impeachment, that looks about right.0 -
If the Democrats can't win in the Deep South, where can they win?PrinceofTaranto said:I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.
0 -
Temporary experiments don't provide the incentives faced by individuals who believe the system will last. Affordability depends how much you pay and which other benefits you scrap.DavidL said:
The experiments in Nordic countries found that universal incomes had very little impact on the propensity to work. The problem with universal income is affordability.Andy_JS said:
Sounds like a good argument against Universal Income.DavidL said:There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms. There’s absolutely no question that bullying someone who is unwell into taking on work they are not fit for is dangerous and inappropriate.
Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.
As promoted by most left wing supporters it probably is affordable, but a bare bones universal income which replaced almost all benefits might be affordable (but lead to much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the usual suspects as in the short term it would redirect income from the poor to the rich).0 -
Private francois equivalent rentagob against something because of who is doing something not on the actual substanceScott_P said:0 -
You would have said in terms of his quality as President, that he's been comparable to Jim,my Carter.rcs1000 said:
I don't think anyone is writing Trump off. He's the incumbent President. And incumbents tend to be reelected.PrinceofTaranto said:I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.
But we oughtn't to ignore his challenges too.
The rust belt is probably back in recession. And he needs to win the rust belt if he's going to be reelected.
His unfavourable numbers are terrible.
And Hillary won't be his opponent next year.
Betfair currently has him at about 2.5 to win in 2020. Given the risk of health problems or impeachment, that looks about right.
Also for his extraordinary ability to say the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Of course, those are the only ways he resembles Carter. Trump has no decency, integrity or sense of duty. When he's kicked out of PA, he won't spend his declining years running around the world trying to help others.
But perhaps the Kurds could be his Tehran Hostages moment. It's not in itself as embarrassing to America but the sheer mendacity and stupidity of what has been done are far worse than a bungled but well-intentioned rescue attempt.0 -
I'm different from you in my attitude towards work (and in not buying lottery tickets as well). It's possible there is some variation in national attitudes to work.DavidL said:
Why would Nordic people be different? I think humans like to feel useful and needed. Work is one of the easier ways of achieving that. If our pension plan of winning the lottery finally comes off I would still want to work. Maybe not as hard or as often but I would.Andy_JS said:
That assumes people in other countries would respond to it the same way that people in Nordic countries do. I don't necessarily think they would do. I think it's possible there are countries where people would decide not to work if they didn't have to, even if that wouldn't happen in the Nordic countries.DavidL said:
The experiments in Nordic countries found that universal incomes had very little impact on the propensity to work. The problem with universal income is affordability.Andy_JS said:
Sounds like a good argument against Universal Income.DavidL said:There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms. There’s absolutely no question that bullying someone who is unwell into taking on work they are not fit for is dangerous and inappropriate.
Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.0 -
I wouldn't trust most US polls .Their pro Democrat sampling is mad and they always swing back to correct their bias near election date. A lot of Democrats hate Pelosi and she is destroying their base and galvanising Republicans.rcs1000 said:
I don't think anyone is writing Trump off. He's the incumbent President. And incumbents tend to be reelected.PrinceofTaranto said:I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.
But we oughtn't to ignore his challenges too.
The rust belt is probably back in recession. And he needs to win the rust belt if he's going to be reelected.
His unfavourable numbers are terrible.
And Hillary won't be his opponent next year.
Betfair currently has him at about 2.5 to win in 2020. Given the risk of health problems or impeachment, that looks about right.
There is a big swing to Trump amongst black voters whIch I think we may see evidenced in these Louisana results.
You are of course right about the rust belt states.Ohio looks safe for Trump though so he starts from a pretty strong position there.0 -
Most Labour seats voted Leave, it is about time Labour MPs respected their constituents views and voted for a Brexit DealScott_P said:1 -
They actually have a pretty popular Governor in Louisana in John Bel Edwards.The question is whether he gets through without a run off against one of the two Republicans.Gabs2 said:
If the Democrats can't win in the Deep South, where can they win?PrinceofTaranto said:I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.
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Could someone save me some time and tell me whether Johnson fans are still cock-a-hoop that this is all going to work - or not?0
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I still think we should at least consider the possibility that JRM is an EU plant.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The only reason I'm hesitating is I simply have trouble believing the EU is capable of pulling off a stroke of such brilliance.0 -
This is what safe looks like?PrinceofTaranto said:
I wouldn't trust most US polls .Their pro Democrat sampling is mad and they always swing back to correct their bias near election date. A lot of Democrats hate Pelosi and she is destroying their base and galvanising Republicans.rcs1000 said:
I don't think anyone is writing Trump off. He's the incumbent President. And incumbents tend to be reelected.PrinceofTaranto said:I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.
But we oughtn't to ignore his challenges too.
The rust belt is probably back in recession. And he needs to win the rust belt if he's going to be reelected.
His unfavourable numbers are terrible.
And Hillary won't be his opponent next year.
Betfair currently has him at about 2.5 to win in 2020. Given the risk of health problems or impeachment, that looks about right.
There is a big swing to Trump amongst black voters whIch I think we may see evidenced in these Louisana results.
You are of course right about the rust belt states.Ohio looks safe for Trump though so he starts from a pretty strong position there.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Ohio.html
I remember the unbiased polls line from 2012.0 -
Trump leads Warren in 2/3 of those Ohio polls, Biden leads Trump in all 3Gabs2 said:
This is what safe looks like?PrinceofTaranto said:
I wouldn't trust most US polls .Their pro Democrat sampling is mad and they always swing back to correct their bias near election date. A lot of Democrats hate Pelosi and she is destroying their base and galvanising Republicans.rcs1000 said:
I don't think anyone is writing Trump off. He's the incumbent President. And incumbents tend to be reelected.PrinceofTaranto said:I would suggest taking a look at the State election results today in Louisiana including the "jungle primary" for Governor before writing off Donald Trump.From what I am hearing based on early results the Democrats are not doing too well.
But we oughtn't to ignore his challenges too.
The rust belt is probably back in recession. And he needs to win the rust belt if he's going to be reelected.
His unfavourable numbers are terrible.
And Hillary won't be his opponent next year.
Betfair currently has him at about 2.5 to win in 2020. Given the risk of health problems or impeachment, that looks about right.
There is a big swing to Trump amongst black voters whIch I think we may see evidenced in these Louisana results.
You are of course right about the rust belt states.Ohio looks safe for Trump though so he starts from a pretty strong position there.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Ohio.html
I remember the unbiased polls line from 2012.0 -
Just watched some of the Klobucher vid. Is it just me or does she have some odd facial tics?
Trump will be straight on that.0 -
Anyone who says they know is whistling in the windChris said:Could someone save me some time and tell me whether Johnson fans are still cock-a-hoop that this is all going to work - or not?
No one has a clue at present, but lots of posturing
I prefer to wait and see how this next week pans out as it is reaches high noon next saturday0 -
I know nobody knows. I'm just curious to know whether the Johnsonites are still feeling trumphalist.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Anyone who says they know is whistling in the windChris said:Could someone save me some time and tell me whether Johnson fans are still cock-a-hoop that this is all going to work - or not?
No one has a clue at present, but lots of posturing
I prefer to wait and see how this next week pans out as it is reaches high noon next saturday0
