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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination
At this stage in a White House race odds of evens on a contender to win the nomination ten months hence are just too tight. So much can happen in the intervening period and it won’t be until Iowa on February 3rd next year that we start to get real voter numbers. There’s also the question as to whether Warren’s left wing approach is a liability or an asset. The former is looking like the case.
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On topic, I suppose Sanders could point out that having a heart attack proves that he at least has a heart.
Trump managed it because he had some key slogans, "build the wall!" which kept support loyal to him.
Do Warren's plans on healthcare have the potential to inspire a similar level of loyalty to the candidate?
Trump wasn't the only national popular vote loser to become US President:
In 1876, Rutherford Hayes got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Samuel Tilden actually won 50.9% of votes, an overall majority.
In 1888, Benjamin Harrison got only 47.8% of the national vote, whereas Grover Cleveland actually won 48.6% of the vote.
In 2000, of course, George W Bush got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Al Gore actually won 48.4% of the vote.
The fifth example was complicated by there being multiple candidates: In 1824, John Quincy Adams won only 30.9% of the national vote, whereas Andrew Jackson won 41.4% of the vote.
We were promised that in 2016 and it never happened.
Warren's plans on healthcare are ... ????? Ban private insurance I know, but nothing else. It's not the big expansion that Obamacare comprised; all sides have really got down to uninspiring technical elements of cost allocation and control by now.
Likeability swings votes more than policies.
It appeals to the heart not the head.
Trump has charisma, Bill Clinton had charisma, George W Bush had charisma, Obama did to an extent, not sure if Warren does
The chances of an outsider mounting a serious challenge at this late stage depend very much on Biden dropping out, leaving those on his wing of the Democrats searching around for a new alternative rather than settle for either Warren or Sanders. That is unlikely, but not impossible, as his vulnerability is no less than that of Sanders on health grounds and there is still a window of nearly 4 months before the first primary. Maybe there's a 1 in 25 chance of a health or other event serious enough to effectively knock Biden out of the race in that window. Still a very long shot though.
https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2019/10/12/news/dup_s_nigel_dodds_rejects_double_customs_brexit_solution_it_cannot_work_-238366257/
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/10/01/elizabeth-warren-golden-retriever-dog-bailey-mh-orig.cnn
It’s more appealing to the centre - opened up by the democrats being further to the left
Bill Clinton did. George W Bush didn't - perhaps a sweet charm! Trump does to his followers and repulses others. I think Johnson does. Warren has the potential as well as likeability.
So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
Next Saturday is going to be interesting with the votes on all the amendments.
My guess is the deal (if there is one) will not pass even with amendments. So a (long) extension and a general election in the Spring. A referendum before a GE is only possible if Johnson agrees to one to get his deal through. Possible but unlikely.
Do you know how they are calculating that? I’ve seen similar percentages claimed for disability before but it just always strikes me as implausibly high
I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
Really weird to have a race weekend Saturday with nothing happening except the unofficial F1 drivers' FIFA PS4 Championship.
They need to be called out and shamed . They’re now throwing their toys out of the pram because they’ve totally screwed up.
They should have pushed for a soft Brexit from the start .
Now they’ve got the UUP coming after them, business calling them out and unification more likely if they’re handmaidens to a no deal.
Ignore them Johnson - push on.
Let them take their chances with Farage.
Any who are old enough to be starting to think about gongs, House of Lords, cushy retirement posts on quangos. Tell them no chance whatsoever.
Their vote is driven by racism and as a result will never go Dem.
Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
That is a big if of course.
Really? Entirely?
Anyway, in case you missed it earlier, here's my pre-qualifying *and* pre-race ramble:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/10/japan-pre-qualifying-and-pre-race-2019.html
Also, got another book coming out 22 October. It's a comedy, which might be some nice relief from the news:
https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2019/10/sir-edric-and-corpse-lord-out-22-october.html
Does Maher ever shut up ?
We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.
Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
Let us see how it develops next week starting with Boris's manifesto on monday, sorry Queens speech
A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.
But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.
I think there are two dynamics in this race that are important.
Firstly, this will likely be a battle between a moderate and a left winger. And it will very rapidly consolidate around a single moderate and a single left winger. Bernie's heart attack, and the proliferation of moderates has made it relatively easy for Warren to step into pole position. If the votes for Booker, O'Rourke and the like find a single centrist home, then the race will look a lot tighter.
Secondly, IOWA MATTERS. That defines the candidates that are in with a shout. Kloubachar is from a neighbouring state, which helps with organisation. And in one poll last month she was in fifth, just a point behind Sanders. She is the best bet. But Buttigieg has the best chance of overtaking Biden.
He has the on the ground organisation. He's massively outraising Biden. And the Biden-Buttigieg spread in Iowa keeps on narrowing. I would reckon there's a one-in-four chance Buttigieg overtaking Biden in Iowa, and a one-in-fifteen chance he passes Warren.
Still, the easy money is simply selling some of those with no chance to the Nomination: Clinton and Yang being the easiest there.
It is unlikely to be resolved within the five years before the next election when the Tories are likely to lose their majority and then it's all up in the air again. Happy days.
I have been talking to three people in the last two weeks with mental health issues, all are being pressured by DWP to seek work their doctors say thay are not fit for, all have mental health issues following brain injuries or essential operations.
Sure, work can improve mental health for some but if employers won't employ you, being pressured to seek work is not helpful.
In the case of a referendum, if you kind of squint a bit you can maybe justify that approach. In the case of a Parliamentary majority it doesn't work. You win the majority on Deal or No Deal, and then the fundamentalists still won't fall into line and vote for a deal that's too closely aligned with the EU; the moderates won't back no deal. And because the manifesto was designed to attract supporters of the two incompatible positions, there's no way to whip the resulting MPs into just one position or the other.
It’s equally likely a centrist candidate does a Hillary in a few key states.
Klobuchar I’m sure would make a very sensible president - but let’s face it, she simply isn’t greatly endowed with charisma.
I’m also not greatly convinced by the idea of a ‘surge of soft Republican votes’ just waiting to switch sides.
UK's best-selling albums (2000-2019)
1) Adele - 21
2) Amy Winehouse - Back To Black
3) Adele - 25
4) Ed Sheeran - x
5) Ed Sheeran - ÷
6) James Blunt - Back To Bedlam
7) Leona Lewis - Spirit
8) Michael Buble - Crazy Love
9) Dido - No Angel
10) David Gray - White Ladder
Ed Sheeran appears in the top five twice too, while other artists in the top 20 include Coldplay, Kings of Leon, Lady Gaga and Scissor Sisters.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50013491
Besides which my point was wider than just the narrower tactical one: if a Democratic wants to make serious inroads into the Republican voting coalition nationwide then that’s what they need to do.
Otherwise there’ll be two large sticky opposing (and mutually hating) blocs around for a very long time, with only very modest swing between them determining who wins at election time.
A smart and brave leader would realise this.
Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.
"There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms."
I'm trying not to get too angry at the ignorance in this comment.
For many people mental ill health is exacerbated by work environments. This includes, but is not limited to, those suffering from severe PTSD.
If you don't know what you are talking about, which you clearly don't, please belt up.
Written by someone at the sharp end ...