politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less
Comments
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The deal has already been done in all the Welsh seats. That is 40 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
The thread header talks about a deal in 70 seats. Across the UK there are 63 seats which voted Remain by >65% and a further 99 seats which voted Remain by >55%. Some of these 162 seats will be in Scotland or Northern Ireland, or already held by the Lib Dems, Plaid or Greens, but I would guess that the remainder will account for the 70 seats to be targeted by the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:
Surely the most difficult question is what to do in Leave seats with Remain MPs, who really would be at risk in a Brexit dominated election. Caroline Flint springs to mind (if she stands again) or Mary Creagh.OblitusSumMe said:Yes, that would create a difficulty. This is true of a lot of Labour held seats that might otherwise be attractive targets for the Remain Alliance, such as Bristol West, Norwich South, Cambridge, Leeds North-West, etc.
Do they cut a deal with them even though Labour is not a Remainer party? Can they even do so?
So the other seats we can presume will essentially have [several] paper candidates [each] from the Remain Alliance.
There are 30 seats left for England & Scotland. Presumably this includes the seats with the current LibDem MPs.
In almost all the Welsh seats, I just don't think this "Remain Alliance" will have much effect, except to depress the Plaid Cymru vote.
Perhaps in Brecon & Radnorshire (though YDoethur argues to the contrary), perhaps in Montgomeryshire. All to the marginal benefit of the LibDems.
Good luck to Plaid in winning votes in the Valleys.
The plucky LibDems have left Plaid Cymru the job of knocking on the doors of the Brexit voting majority in these areas and telling them they’re as thick as two short planks and a bunch of racists and they can’t be trusted to vote the way 'the Remain Alliance' wanted them to.0 -
Does this mean an old bet on Gabbard at 22 is good value?Richard_Nabavi said:
It's because the sane have maxed out.Casino_Royale said:How on earth can Hillary be laid at 13.5?
"Asking for a friend"0 -
0
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Not giving a fig is one thing, but I think he actually calculates that this would help his re-election campaign.nico67 said:
Worse than that . He’s basically saying he doesn’t give a fig if they come back to Europe and cause carnage .williamglenn said:Does Trump actively want to create another migration crisis in Europe?
https://twitter.com/sppeoples/status/1182024931615358976?s=21
The Kurds have been instrumental in defeating ISIS and the thanks they get is to be stabbed in the back and now the nutjob Erdogan is going to run riot .
Utterly despicable actions from Trump .0 -
Well Russia helped create the first one, and Russia controls Trump. So it's less about what Trump wants and more about what he'll do.williamglenn said:Does Trump actively want to create another migration crisis in Europe?
https://twitter.com/sppeoples/status/1182024931615358976?s=21
We need to have a sharp word with Turkey about this.0 -
😁😁😁kle4 said:
I think it is very encouraging that we have developed time travel and are only using for responsible purposes, to enjoy historical moments like observing British General Elections.anothernick said:
Live?Andy_JS said:The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.
Have we travelled back in time? Can we rerun 2016 without the referendum?0 -
Is anyone aware of any previous occasion where parliament has passed a law instructing a PM to do something and specifying how that something must be done? Is the Benn Act a first?0
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What do you mean 'Live'. You must think some of us haven't been born yet!anothernick said:
Live?Andy_JS said:The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.
Have we travelled back in time? Can we rerun 2016 without the referendum?
I was born in 1965 so that means ..... oops (disappears)!0 -
Uhuh. Dom's black ops?GIN1138 said:
It had Con on 40%. #FakePollingNewsBenpointer said:
I'm intrigued now, what did the fake poll say?Andy_JS said:How dare anyone try to impersonate BritainElects or Opinium.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11819378921947054150 -
Another attempt to dig up dirt on political opponents in exchange for a free trade deal/missile system?Benpointer said:https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1182019452524736512?s=20
Bojo dancing to Donald's tune0 -
Any chance we could use it to see how Brexit turns out and save ourselves months (years?) of endless debate?kle4 said:
I think it is very encouraging that we have developed time travel and are only using for responsible purposes, to enjoy historical moments like observing British General Elections.anothernick said:
Live?Andy_JS said:The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.
Have we travelled back in time? Can we rerun 2016 without the referendum?0 -
Buttigieg is better at 16.No_Offence_Alan said:
Does this mean an old bet on Gabbard at 22 is good value?Richard_Nabavi said:
It's because the sane have maxed out.Casino_Royale said:How on earth can Hillary be laid at 13.5?
"Asking for a friend"1 -
Noo said:
Mitt Romney was the one in 2012 who correctly identified Russia as the most serious strategic threat to the United States. He was laughed at at the time, because most people thought he was harking back to a very out of date view of the world, but in fact he was noticing the change in tone from Putin, from being a bit of a pussycat to adopting a quite nasty attitude towards the west. It was around the time that Putin was seriously embracing fascism.rottenborough said:
Starting to serious reappraise Romney. He is standing up for proper American values and sentiments. At least some are in the GOP.TheScreamingEagles said:Trump's an absolute [insert language that gets you banned from PB]
https://twitter.com/SenatorRomney/status/1182015168466882560
Within four years, Putin had launched a hybrid war against Ukraine, attacked the democratic processes in USA and the UK, including hacking voting machines in all 50 US states in 2016, engaged in a terrifying campaign of civilian bombardment in Syria aimed at driving more refugees across the Mediterranean, and creating an RT- and Twitter-based propaganda machine designed to boost fascist parties in Europe, spread hatred of Muslims, destroy people's faith in democracy, destroy people's faith in media organisations, and destroy the concept of objective truth itself.
As much as I despise the Republican party for its virulently anti-progress standpoint, Romney deserves praise for being ahead of the curve on spotting where Putin was going. Obama, whom I like, was caught with his pants down over Russia. Inexcusable failure on his part.
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The Village People are looking old these days.Benpointer said:https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1182019452524736512?s=20
Bojo dancing to Donald's tune2 -
It’s very unusual . I can’t remember that happening before. But we live in exceptional times .humbugger said:Is anyone aware of any previous occasion where parliament has passed a law instructing a PM to do something and specifying how that something must be done? Is the Benn Act a first?
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Re Trump,
The most important thing to remember is that - like a lot of rich people - he thinks only in terms of relative performance.
If the US does better than the EU, Japan and China, then his tenure has been a success. Even if the numbers are -10, -15, -20 and -25, then the US has outpeformed and he is a winner.
So, things that negatively affect the EU or China's economic growth (or political stability) are to be encouraged. Because they help the US "win", even if it is at the cost of Americans being - in absolute terms - poorer.
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He what now? What does that...why is he...I give up.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know Trump probably says a lot of things designed to provoke apoplectic or confused reactions out of people who already do not like him, and as astonishing as his remarks often are they haven't hurt him to date, but it's increasingly difficult to believe there's method in the madness.1 -
Didn't the Cooper-Letwin Act (European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019) effectively do this too?nico67 said:
It’s very unusual . I can’t remember that happening before. But we live in exceptional times .humbugger said:Is anyone aware of any previous occasion where parliament has passed a law instructing a PM to do something and specifying how that something must be done? Is the Benn Act a first?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_(Withdrawal)_Act_20190 -
https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1182034394925670402kle4 said:
He what now? What does that...why is he...I give up.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know Trump probably says a lot of things designed to provoke apoplectic or confused reactions out of people who already do not like him, and as astonishing as his remarks often are they haven't hurt him to date, but it's increasingly difficult to believe there's method in the madness.0 -
In terms of election campaigning what’s the excepted norms .
Are you allowed to use a foreign politician in your campaign material.
Clearly the best way for Labour is to tie Bozo to Trump .0 -
Are you sure? The article says only "key seats" and specifies "England and Wales", and that the dynamics are different in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It doesn't say that the deal will apply to all 40 seats in Wales. It could just be for half a dozen.YBarddCwsc said:
The deal has already been done in all the Welsh seats. That is 40 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
The thread header talks about a deal in 70 seats. Across the UK there are 63 seats which voted Remain by >65% and a further 99 seats which voted Remain by >55%. Some of these 162 seats will be in Scotland or Northern Ireland, or already held by the Lib Dems, Plaid or Greens, but I would guess that the remainder will account for the 70 seats to be targeted by the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:
Surely the most difficult question is what to do in Leave seats with Remain MPs, who really would be at risk in a Brexit dominated election. Caroline Flint springs to mind (if she stands again) or Mary Creagh.OblitusSumMe said:Yes, that would create a difficulty. This is true of a lot of Labour held seats that might otherwise be attractive targets for the Remain Alliance, such as Bristol West, Norwich South, Cambridge, Leeds North-West, etc.
Do they cut a deal with them even though Labour is not a Remainer party? Can they even do so?
So the other seats we can presume will essentially have [several] paper candidates [each] from the Remain Alliance.
There are 30 seats left for England & Scotland. Presumably this includes the seats with the current LibDem MPs.
In almost all the Welsh seats, I just don't think this "Remain Alliance" will have much effect, except to depress the Plaid Cymru vote.
Perhaps in Brecon & Radnorshire (though YDoethur argues to the contrary), perhaps in Montgomeryshire. All to the marginal benefit of the LibDems.
Good luck to Plaid in winning votes in the Valleys.
The plucky LibDems have left Plaid Cymru the job of knocking on the doors of the Brexit voting majority in these areas and telling them they’re as thick as two short planks and a bunch of racists and they can’t be trusted to vote the way 'the Remain Alliance' wanted them to.0 -
And none of them is jolly good.ydoethur said:
Considerably less likely than in 1959 given a much higher proportion are not 'fellows.'justin124 said:How likely is it today that a crowd would burst into 'For he's a jolly good fellow' following a declaration? I noticed that happened at both Billericay and Exeter in 1959.
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It wasn’t so pointed in terms of actions and didn’t set out a template for the letter . May was useless but isn’t a law breaker .Benpointer said:
Didn't the Cooper-Letwin Act (European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019) effectively do this too?nico67 said:
It’s very unusual . I can’t remember that happening before. But we live in exceptional times .humbugger said:Is anyone aware of any previous occasion where parliament has passed a law instructing a PM to do something and specifying how that something must be done? Is the Benn Act a first?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_(Withdrawal)_Act_2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_(Withdrawal)_Act_20190 -
I am amused that psephology is really the study of pebbles.0
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Yeh Gods. Beyond belief.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hang your heads in utter shame Republicans. How can you get up in the mornings?0 -
I remember a question to US citizens 25 years plus ago in the economist. At the time Japan was thought likely to outperform the US in the long-term. The question was to "stop Japan outperforming the US would they support a lower US growth rate, which would stifle Japan's growth" and the respondents replied in the affirmative. So it validates your view of Trump, thinking he is winning when he is losing!rcs1000 said:Re Trump,
The most important thing to remember is that - like a lot of rich people - he thinks only in terms of relative performance.
If the US does better than the EU, Japan and China, then his tenure has been a success. Even if the numbers are -10, -15, -20 and -25, then the US has outpeformed and he is a winner.
So, things that negatively affect the EU or China's economic growth (or political stability) are to be encouraged. Because they help the US "win", even if it is at the cost of Americans being - in absolute terms - poorer.0 -
Increasingly feel that the 25th Amendment is going to eject Trump before any impeachment.1
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I cannot imagine there would have been a previous time, because generally the way to achieve it would be to change the identity of the Prime Minister, and it is only the special circumstances of this time - the Brexit split crossing party lines when the leader of the opposition is so toxic to MPs who might otherwise cross the floor - that has made it possible.humbugger said:Is anyone aware of any previous occasion where parliament has passed a law instructing a PM to do something and specifying how that something must be done? Is the Benn Act a first?
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I thought so too. Somebody downthread raised (facetiously I suspect) the prospect that the Benn Act infringed the PM's human rights. That reminded me of a recent column in the Sunday Times by Dominic Lawson which IIRC suggested that there is no precedent for parliament instructing a PM in the way the Benn Act does and that doing so is simply not the constitutional role of parliament. Might it be challenged in the courts on this basis?nico67 said:
It’s very unusual . I can’t remember that happening before. But we live in exceptional times .humbugger said:Is anyone aware of any previous occasion where parliament has passed a law instructing a PM to do something and specifying how that something must be done? Is the Benn Act a first?
My apologies if this point has been covered previously on PB.0 -
Ok that worksBenpointer said:
NurturedCharles said:
They claim it was a typo... I can’t work out what for?!Floater said:Evidence at last that tories realy are evil :-)
https://order-order.com/2019/10/09/islington-tories-call-mentally-ill-people-neutered/0 -
Difficult to get away with that when he's so clearly lucid a lot of the time.Benpointer said:Increasingly feel that the 25th Amendment is going to do for Trump before any impeachment.
He has his moments when one can believe he has dementia but he's clearly walking and talking, so any putative incapacity would be extremely difficult to justify.0 -
Pesky fake polls !0
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It was only ever being polite, I suspect, rather than as a genuine indicator of jolly goodness. I expect we have a rose tinted views of politicians of a bygone age. There are probably people nostalgic for MPs of the 80s, but of the ones who are left from that time probably only half are any good.Alphabet_Soup said:
And none of them is jolly good.ydoethur said:
Considerably less likely than in 1959 given a much higher proportion are not 'fellows.'justin124 said:How likely is it today that a crowd would burst into 'For he's a jolly good fellow' following a declaration? I noticed that happened at both Billericay and Exeter in 1959.
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So my gin and lemon was not enough for you then.Noo said:
I'll find a policewoman to arrest youCyclefree said:I am contemplating life as a criminal in retirement feeding kitchen scraps to my chickens.
Fortunately there are few policemen in rural Cumbria and those that exist are busy investigating thefts of scones from tea shops.
So I may get away with it.
But, sshhhhh, don't tell anyone.
😥0 -
Very much doubt it. His Cabinet is stuffed full of business friends isn't it?Benpointer said:Increasingly feel that the 25th Amendment is going to eject Trump before any impeachment.
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In all the Welsh seats (except Ceredigion) there will be a Remain Alliance between Plaid Cymru/LibDems/Greens. That is 39 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
Are you sure? The article says only "key seats" and specifies "England and Wales", and that the dynamics are different in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It doesn't say that the deal will apply to all 40 seats in Wales. It could just be for half a dozen.YBarddCwsc said:
The deal has already been done in all the Welsh seats. That is 40 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
The thread header talks about a deal in 70 seats. Across the UK there are 63 seats which voted Remain by >65% and a further 99 seats which voted Remain by >55%. Some of these 162 seats will be in Scotland or Northern Ireland, or already held by the Lib Dems, Plaid or Greens, but I would guess that the remainder will account for the 70 seats to be targeted by the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:
Surely the most difficult question is what to do in Leave seats with Remain MPs, who really would be at risk in a Brexit dominated election. Caroline Flint springs to mind (if she stands again) or Mary Creagh.OblitusSumMe said:Yes, that would create a difficulty. This is true of a lot of Labour held seats that might otherwise be attractive targets for the Remain Alliance, such as Bristol West, Norwich South, Cambridge, Leeds North-West, etc.
Do they cut a deal with them even though Labour is not a Remainer party? Can they even do so?
So the other seats we can presume will essentially have [several] paper candidates [each] from the Remain Alliance.
There are 30 seats left for England & Scotland. Presumably this includes the seats with the current LibDem MPs.
In almost all the Welsh seats, I just don't think this "Remain Alliance" will have much effect, except to depress the Plaid Cymru vote.
Perhaps in Brecon & Radnorshire (though YDoethur argues to the contrary), perhaps in Montgomeryshire. All to the marginal benefit of the LibDems.
Good luck to Plaid in winning votes in the Valleys.
The plucky LibDems have left Plaid Cymru the job of knocking on the doors of the Brexit voting majority in these areas and telling them they’re as thick as two short planks and a bunch of racists and they can’t be trusted to vote the way 'the Remain Alliance' wanted them to.
I don't know where OGH got the figure "70+" from for England & Wales.
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Courts don't get to challenge Acts. That's what parliamentary sovereignty means.humbugger said:
I thought so too. Somebody downthread raised (facetiously I suspect) the prospect that the Benn Act infringed the PM's human rights. That reminded me of a recent column in the Sunday Times by Dominic Lawson which IIRC that there is no precedent for parliament instructing a PM in the way the Benn Act does and that doing so is simply not the constitutional role of parliament. Might it be challenged in the courts on this basis?nico67 said:
It’s very unusual . I can’t remember that happening before. But we live in exceptional times .humbugger said:Is anyone aware of any previous occasion where parliament has passed a law instructing a PM to do something and specifying how that something must be done? Is the Benn Act a first?
My apologies if this point has been covered previously on PB.0 -
Romney 2020 perhaps?rottenborough said:Noo said:
Mitt Romney was the one in 2012 who correctly identified Russia as the most serious strategic threat to the United States. He was laughed at at the time, because most people thought he was harking back to a very out of date view of the world, but in fact he was noticing the change in tone from Putin, from being a bit of a pussycat to adopting a quite nasty attitude towards the west. It was around the time that Putin was seriously embracing fascism.rottenborough said:
Starting to serious reappraise Romney. He is standing up for proper American values and sentiments. At least some are in the GOP.TheScreamingEagles said:Trump's an absolute [insert language that gets you banned from PB]
https://twitter.com/SenatorRomney/status/1182015168466882560
Within four years, Putin had launched a hybrid war against Ukraine, attacked the democratic processes in USA and the UK, including hacking voting machines in all 50 US states in 2016, engaged in a terrifying campaign of civilian bombardment in Syria aimed at driving more refugees across the Mediterranean, and creating an RT- and Twitter-based propaganda machine designed to boost fascist parties in Europe, spread hatred of Muslims, destroy people's faith in democracy, destroy people's faith in media organisations, and destroy the concept of objective truth itself.
As much as I despise the Republican party for its virulently anti-progress standpoint, Romney deserves praise for being ahead of the curve on spotting where Putin was going. Obama, whom I like, was caught with his pants down over Russia. Inexcusable failure on his part.0 -
Trump is right to be bitter about WW2. Perhaps with a few more allies, his side could have won.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Oh, this is good, we don't believe No. 10's account of the Merkel call, but Trump's recollection of a conversation with Boris is faultless fact untainted by opinion.Benpointer said:https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1182019452524736512?s=20
Bojo dancing to Donald's tune3 -
Not sure Trump believes that war is really over. He's working on a new front in the USA.Noo said:
Trump is right to be bitter about WW2. Perhaps with a few more allies, his side could have won.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I'm on for beer money.rpjs said:
Romney 2020 perhaps?rottenborough said:Noo said:
Mitt Romney was the one in 2012 who correctly identified Russia as the most serious strategic threat to the United States. He was laughed at at the time, because most people thought he was harking back to a very out of date view of the world, but in fact he was noticing the change in tone from Putin, from being a bit of a pussycat to adopting a quite nasty attitude towards the west. It was around the time that Putin was seriously embracing fascism.rottenborough said:
Starting to serious reappraise Romney. He is standing up for proper American values and sentiments. At least some are in the GOP.TheScreamingEagles said:Trump's an absolute [insert language that gets you banned from PB]
https://twitter.com/SenatorRomney/status/1182015168466882560
Within four years, Putin had launched a hybrid war against Ukraine, attacked the democratic processes in USA and the UK, including hacking voting machines in all 50 US states in 2016, engaged in a terrifying campaign of civilian bombardment in Syria aimed at driving more refugees across the Mediterranean, and creating an RT- and Twitter-based propaganda machine designed to boost fascist parties in Europe, spread hatred of Muslims, destroy people's faith in democracy, destroy people's faith in media organisations, and destroy the concept of objective truth itself.
As much as I despise the Republican party for its virulently anti-progress standpoint, Romney deserves praise for being ahead of the curve on spotting where Putin was going. Obama, whom I like, was caught with his pants down over Russia. Inexcusable failure on his part.1 -
Scumbag.TheScreamingEagles said:Trump's an absolute [insert language that gets you banned from PB]
https://twitter.com/SenatorRomney/status/11820151684668825600 -
It's from the linked Sky News article. Have you heard directly from Plaid Cymru, or do you have a different source?YBarddCwsc said:
In all the Welsh seats (except Ceredigion) there will be a Remain Alliance between Plaid Cymru/LibDems/Greens. That is 39 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
Are you sure? The article says only "key seats" and specifies "England and Wales", and that the dynamics are different in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It doesn't say that the deal will apply to all 40 seats in Wales. It could just be for half a dozen.YBarddCwsc said:
The deal has already been done in all the Welsh seats. That is 40 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
The thread header talks about a deal in 70 seats. Across the UK there are 63 seats which voted Remain by >65% and a further 99 seats which voted Remain by >55%. Some of these 162 seats will be in Scotland or Northern Ireland, or already held by the Lib Dems, Plaid or Greens, but I would guess that the remainder will account for the 70 seats to be targeted by the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:
Surely the most difficult question is what to do in Leave seats with Remain MPs, who really would be at risk in a Brexit dominated election. Caroline Flint springs to mind (if she stands again) or Mary Creagh.OblitusSumMe said:Yes, that would create a difficulty. This is true of a lot of Labour held seats that might otherwise be attractive targets for the Remain Alliance, such as Bristol West, Norwich South, Cambridge, Leeds North-West, etc.
Do they cut a deal with them even though Labour is not a Remainer party? Can they even do so?
So the other seats we can presume will essentially have [several] paper candidates [each] from the Remain Alliance.
There are 30 seats left for England & Scotland. Presumably this includes the seats with the current LibDem MPs.
In almost all the Welsh seats, I just don't think this "Remain Alliance" will have much effect, except to depress the Plaid Cymru vote.
Perhaps in Brecon & Radnorshire (though YDoethur argues to the contrary), perhaps in Montgomeryshire. All to the marginal benefit of the LibDems.
Good luck to Plaid in winning votes in the Valleys.
The plucky LibDems have left Plaid Cymru the job of knocking on the doors of the Brexit voting majority in these areas and telling them they’re as thick as two short planks and a bunch of racists and they can’t be trusted to vote the way 'the Remain Alliance' wanted them to.
I don't know where OGH got the figure "70+" from for England & Wales.0 -
Like a lost Japanese soldier* in the jungle, fighting on because he doesn't realise his side surrendered fifteen years ago.rottenborough said:
Not sure Trump believes that war is really over. He's working on a new front in the USA.Noo said:
Trump is right to be bitter about WW2. Perhaps with a few more allies, his side could have won.TheScreamingEagles said:
*with bone spurs0 -
And me.Daveyboy1961 said:0 -
Says in the article she’s going on maternity leave, not quitting...rottenborough said:0 -
I think I have seen which parties will fight each Welsh seat somewhere -- I will try and find a link.OblitusSumMe said:
It's from the linked Sky News article. Have you heard directly from Plaid Cymru, or do you have a different source?YBarddCwsc said:
In all the Welsh seats (except Ceredigion) there will be a Remain Alliance between Plaid Cymru/LibDems/Greens. That is 39 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
Are you sure? The article says only "key seats" and specifies "England and Wales", and that the dynamics are different in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It doesn't say that the deal will apply to all 40 seats in Wales. It could just be for half a dozen.YBarddCwsc said:
The deal has already been done in all the Welsh seats. That is 40 seats.OblitusSumMe said:
The thread header talks about a deal in 70 seats. Across the UK there are 63 seats which voted Remain by >65% and a further 99 seats which voted Remain by >55%. Some of these 162 seats will be in Scotland or Northern Ireland, or already held by the Lib Dems, Plaid or Greens, but I would guess that the remainder will account for the 70 seats to be targeted by the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:
Surely the most difficult question is what to do in Leave seats with Remain MPs, who really would be at risk in a Brexit dominated election. Caroline Flint springs to mind (if she stands again) or Mary Creagh.OblitusSumMe said:Yes, that would create a difficulty. This is true of a lot of Labour held seats that might otherwise be attractive targets for the Remain Alliance, such as Bristol West, Norwich South, Cambridge, Leeds North-West, etc.
Do they cut a deal with them even though Labour is not a Remainer party? Can they even do so?
So the other seats we can presume will essentially have [several] paper candidates [each] from the Remain Alliance.
There are 30 seats left for England & Scotland. Presumably this includes the seats with the current LibDem MPs.
In almost all the Welsh seats, I just don't think this "Remain Alliance" will have much effect, except to depress the Plaid Cymru vote.
Perhaps in Brecon & Radnorshire (though YDoethur argues to the contrary), perhaps in Montgomeryshire. All to the marginal benefit of the LibDems.
Good luck to Plaid in winning votes in the Valleys.
The plucky LibDems have left Plaid Cymru the job of knocking on the doors of the Brexit voting majority in these areas and telling them they’re as thick as two short planks and a bunch of racists and they can’t be trusted to vote the way 'the Remain Alliance' wanted them to.
I don't know where OGH got the figure "70+" from for England & Wales.1 -
Christ that is awful. The past is another country, indeed. Loved the bit of description of her hair colour "for those watching in black and white," though.egg said:
Everyone will be slipping their shoes off, this is just jaw dropping.TheScreamingEagles said:
The one that was an eye opener was I think the 1970 election repeat when Robin Day pretty much letched over Janet Fookes, he did have a thing for women with red hair.Alphabet_Soup said:
I love watching people smoke on-screen. It makes me feel young again.TheScreamingEagles said:
No spoilers please.Andy_JS said:The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.
My money would be on SuperMac increasing the Tory majority.
Christ I cringed so hard my feet shrank three sizes.
“Outside, in the Bentley, ten minutes. And bring your friend”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xhHB0dOVOYs0 -
Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html0 -
Given the history of the new Government with parliament so far, not sure this is exactly a blow...rottenborough said:0 -
For those who like things a little mystical, Mitt Romney is supposed by some to be the subject of a Mormon prophecy about someone who saves the US when its constitution is hanging by a thread:rpjs said:
Romney 2020 perhaps?rottenborough said:Noo said:
Mitt Romney was the one in 2012 who correctly identified Russia as the most serious strategic threat to the United States. He was laughed at at the time, because most people thought he was harking back to a very out of date view of the world, but in fact he was noticing the change in tone from Putin, from being a bit of a pussycat to adopting a quite nasty attitude towards the west. It was around the time that Putin was seriously embracing fascism.rottenborough said:
Starting to serious reappraise Romney. He is standing up for proper American values and sentiments. At least some are in the GOP.TheScreamingEagles said:Trump's an absolute [insert language that gets you banned from PB]
https://twitter.com/SenatorRomney/status/1182015168466882560
Within four years, Putin had launched a hybrid war against Ukraine, attacked the democratic processes in USA and the UK, including hacking voting machines in all 50 US states in 2016, engaged in a terrifying campaign of civilian bombardment in Syria aimed at driving more refugees across the Mediterranean, and creating an RT- and Twitter-based propaganda machine designed to boost fascist parties in Europe, spread hatred of Muslims, destroy people's faith in democracy, destroy people's faith in media organisations, and destroy the concept of objective truth itself.
As much as I despise the Republican party for its virulently anti-progress standpoint, Romney deserves praise for being ahead of the curve on spotting where Putin was going. Obama, whom I like, was caught with his pants down over Russia. Inexcusable failure on his part.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Horse_Prophecy
Well, it is. And Mitt could* be the man to lead the Republicans in Senate to impeach that motherfker.
*probably not0 -
I have to say I'm struggling to recall the time I knocked down and killed a motorcyclist.williamglenn said:Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html1 -
So much for being our most important allywilliamglenn said:Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html
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Shall I? No, I shan't.Gallowgate said:
Says in the article she’s going on maternity leave, not quitting...rottenborough said:0 -
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I'm guessing Erdogan isn't doing Turkey's chances of joining the EU much good.0
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Well we're getting an election, so that's a yes then.TGOHF2 said:0 -
Tonight’s cunning plan.Scott_P said:
Tomorrow: Boris Johnson is going to hand deliver the letter to EU HQ while dressed as a mandarin duck, set fire to the building with vanilla vodka and cooks’ matches, and escape in a hot air ballon.0 -
EU talks have essentially been frozen since the crackdown against the alleged coup-plotters in 2016.tlg86 said:I'm guessing Erdogan isn't doing Turkey's chances of joining the EU much good.
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He had this great knack of sounding authoritative even when he knew the square root of bugger all about the topic 😆Alphabet_Soup said:
"Lord Hailsham is not an authority on socialism."HYUFD said:
Hugh Gaitskill says he accepts the will of the people (which makes a change) but dismisses Lord Hailshsm's argument the Labour defeat 'means the extinction of Socialism'.Andy_JS said:The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.
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Where can I find this show?Roger said:Just watching a recording of the 'Tory Party at War'. Very funny particularly Alan Duncan. Speaks his mind! like 'Priti Patel the most useless and incompetent minister we've ever had'. Most of his predictions were right though Including that Patel would be in a Johnson Cabinet. What a bunch of shits the ERG were. How anyone voted for Johnson is just baffling. Surprisingly Farage is more likable than I'd imagined but in that company it's not too difficult
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Not pulling all the way out then?TGOHF2 said:1 -
Whose the father!Gallowgate said:
Says in the article she’s going on maternity leave, not quitting...rottenborough said:0 -
Why does he need to. The EU will know he doesn't want to extend.TGOHF2 said:1 -
Sounds like a canard to me. Still, where there's smoke there's fire, and Boris is an absolut basket case, so it all fits.Anabobazina said:
Tonight’s cunning plan.Scott_P said:
Tomorrow: Boris Johnson is going to hand deliver the letter to EU HQ while dressed as a mandarin duck, set fire to the building with vanilla vodka and cooks’ matches, and escape in a hot air ballon.0 -
The second letter doesn’t say he doesn’t want an extension. It says how he will use an extensionBenpointer said:
I think that's right - Boris can send another letter but the EU will know they should rightly ignore it. It's clear which will be the official letter.GIN1138 said:
They are "seeking to obtain" an extension as Parliament wishes.Scott_P said:
But Boris is then perfectly entitled to send another letter saying he doesn't want or agree with it if he wishes
We're getting to the point where Benn must be infringing Boris's human rights!
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I know you are sensitive on the subject, but I was under the impression that was the whole point of an Eton education!Charles said:
He had this great knack of sounding authoritative even when he knew the square root of bugger all about the topic 😆Alphabet_Soup said:
"Lord Hailsham is not an authority on socialism."HYUFD said:
Hugh Gaitskill says he accepts the will of the people (which makes a change) but dismisses Lord Hailshsm's argument the Labour defeat 'means the extinction of Socialism'.Andy_JS said:The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.
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It wont be up to him how he uses it, they know by the fact of the extension itself that he can be overruled by Parliament whenever it chooses.Charles said:
The second letter doesn’t say he doesn’t want an extension. It says how he will use an extensionBenpointer said:
I think that's right - Boris can send another letter but the EU will know they should rightly ignore it. It's clear which will be the official letter.GIN1138 said:
They are "seeking to obtain" an extension as Parliament wishes.Scott_P said:
But Boris is then perfectly entitled to send another letter saying he doesn't want or agree with it if he wishes
We're getting to the point where Benn must be infringing Boris's human rights!0 -
Bloody baby...couldnt it write a letter to the EU asking for an extension in the womb or something...Gallowgate said:
Says in the article she’s going on maternity leave, not quitting...rottenborough said:
I am sure the media are getting worse at reporting / spinning stuff.0 -
Turkey was never going to join . This was a diplomatic game that was played . And several countries would have vetoed it anyway .
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0
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Forget mrs rooney / vardy bust up, this is really the #1 story in the world. It has huge potential fallout.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
She quit in January too.rottenborough said:
Did she come back in between, or is this the same story reheated?0 -
A fake poll is no better or worse than a genuine one at this stage in the game. Generate some random numbers, take your pick.Andy_JS said:How dare anyone try to impersonate BritainElects or Opinium.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11819378921947054150 -
Unless he wants to pass any statutes, he can use the extension however he pleases.kle4 said:
It wont be up to him how he uses it, they know by the fact of the extension itself that he can be overruled by Parliament whenever it chooses.Charles said:
The second letter doesn’t say he doesn’t want an extension. It says how he will use an extensionBenpointer said:
I think that's right - Boris can send another letter but the EU will know they should rightly ignore it. It's clear which will be the official letter.GIN1138 said:
They are "seeking to obtain" an extension as Parliament wishes.Scott_P said:
But Boris is then perfectly entitled to send another letter saying he doesn't want or agree with it if he wishes
We're getting to the point where Benn must be infringing Boris's human rights!0 -
Fake news, I'm afraid, Billy. Trump is a moron but he was actually talking about driving on the wrong side of the road by accident in a foreign country. I watched that segment of the presser, and Trump was very fair to be honest.williamglenn said:Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html0 -
For the record, most of us have only done it while wearing blackface.williamglenn said:Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html2 -
Nah - he’ll return the diplomats wife in exchange for “a number of things”rottenborough said:
Another attempt to dig up dirt on political opponents in exchange for a free trade deal/missile system?Benpointer said:https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1182019452524736512?s=20
Bojo dancing to Donald's tune
Possibly including banning wind farms near a golf course0 -
Pissed, were you sir?tlg86 said:
I have to say I'm struggling to recall the time I knocked down and killed a motorcyclist.williamglenn said:Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html0 -
Ah, the old 'forgetfulness' defence. Let us know how that works out.tlg86 said:
I have to say I'm struggling to recall the time I knocked down and killed a motorcyclist.williamglenn said:Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html0 -
You only apply the black to your face? #amateurhourrcs1000 said:
For the record, most of us have only done it while wearing blackface.williamglenn said:Trump also defended the woman who killed a motorcyclist in Northamptonshire, saying, "We've all done it."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harry-dunn-anne-sacoolas-car-crash-us-diplomat-uk-a9149746.html2 -
So is this the EU / Bercow.stitch up, extension with 2nd referendum clause.0
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Rubbish. Genuine polls are very useful, (except for Corbyn supporters).Anabobazina said:
A fake poll is no better or worse than a genuine one at this stage in the game. Generate some random numbers, take your pick.Andy_JS said:How dare anyone try to impersonate BritainElects or Opinium.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11819378921947054150 -
Yet it's never taken off the table.Sunil_Prasannan said:
EU talks have essentially been frozen since the crackdown against the alleged coup-plotters in 2016.tlg86 said:I'm guessing Erdogan isn't doing Turkey's chances of joining the EU much good.
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What he’s saying is the Kurds are acting out of their own self interest not because they are strong allies of the US and therefore we do t owe them any favoursTheScreamingEagles said:
That’s a plausible argument to make (even though he has made the wrong decision)0 -
What could possibly go wrong?FrancisUrquhart said:So is this the EU / Bercow.stitch up, extension with 2nd referendum clause.
(As 17.4m boycott the 2nd referendum......)0 -
Maternity leave is not the same as quitsrottenborough said:0
