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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With four days to go until LE2013 the Sun turns its fire on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With four days to go until LE2013 the Sun turns its fire on Farage and Ukip
Given the sympathetic coverage that Nigel Farage and the purples have had in the run-up to LE2013 today’s coverage in the Sun about their local candidate selection procedures comes as something of a surprise.
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So they big up one set of politicians for a bit, and they get bored with that and lay into them instead. Last year, it was the turn of Cameron and the Conservatives to be vilified and ridiculed. Now it's the turn of UKIP to be vilified and Ed Miliband to be ridiculed.
No doubt there will be further twists and turns in the narrative before the next election. Who knows, perhaps Nick Clegg and the LibDems will have another spot in the sun as media darlings again?
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3371/exclusive_leaked_documents_reveal_tory_spinners_in_intensive_anti_ukip_media_briefings
Lots of newspaper stories are just re-phrased press releases. No reason that political articles should be any different. The TPA have been very successful with this.
I imagine UKIP are delighted with the attention.
Did OGH get any insights into Tory expectations from his tete a tete a tete with Grant Shapps and Michael Green?
http://tinyurl.com/boo5645
These stories are not game-changers, though; they are merely knocks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10021046/Vote-for-Farage-Are-you-completely-bonkers.html
Perhaps the Conservatives have handled the press reform better than some of their critics would allow, at least so far as keeping their friendlier newspapers on board.
Remind me, Mark, what did Chris Huhne say about the Tories and the EPP, or about Lady Warsi? I seem to remember the press being quite happy to give those remarks plenty of publicity.
Just remember that the Conservatives voted with the LibDems and the Labour Party to add the amendments to the Crime and Courts Act 2013 and the Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Act 2013. They support no more or less of a free press than the sainted LibDems.
Obviously, it depends upon the exact nature of the dirt dredged up. Some of the straight-laced who've leaked from the Tories may be put off by candidates who run strip clubs, but, even with the closet racist accusations, I think there are plenty who'd accept it.
Indeed, if I was in UKIP HQ today I would be intensely relaxed about these particular stories.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10021046/Vote-for-Farage-Are-you-completely-bonkers.html
It's of course anecdotal - all canvassing is - but my feeling here in leafy Surrey is that the Tories are doing a little better than last year (and this modest improvement is reflected in the national polls) and that gives cautious grounds for optimism (albeit the seat losses will be extensive given 2009).
BUT, and it is a major caveat, should UKIP perform well (10% plus) and I'm concerned they will despite the eery calm, then it could indeed be a grim Friday morning for those of us at the count.
I wonder what price Dave will be paying for their help.Another squirm to give them want they want ie the staus quo of self regulation.Ed and Nick should now demand statutory regulation asince the croosparty approach has filed to be acceptable.Surely its not for the papers to dcecide what from of regulation they will have.?
Is there going to be a PB competition for seat changes in next weeks weeks unitary/county council elections
Have just been looking at national swing since April 2009 using ICM.This gives the following figures,CON to LAB 9%,CON TO LD 2.5%,LD TO LAB 6.5%.Likley UKIP swing CON to UKIP around 10%.
Applying these figures to last contests in 2009 gives the following seat cahnges(Thrasher and Rawlings figures in brackets)
CON -314(-310),LAB+218(+350),LD -3(-130),UKIP +98(+40)
The LD figure arises because of the small swing versus the Cons whchgive ssome seat gains to offset losses to Labour -not that high because in many Counties thre are few LD/LAB marginals.
The UKIP figure is impressive. But looking at the 2009 results shows UKIP in many second places with vote shares of 20% +.Farage has detoxified the UKIP brand and Eastleigh gave electoral credibility.
A nice and simple analysis, rogerh. If UKIP to get 98± seats I will be very pleased as my bet will come rolling home. If they get over 110 seats I'll lose my bet but I'll be even more pleased.
8 PD
5 PDL
2 Monti
1 Radical
4 Technocrats
Fury at UKIP ‘fruit loops’
Farage election oddballs rapped</>
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4905370/Fury-at-UKIP-fruit-loops-being-fielded-at-council-elections.html#ixzz2ReQ4UzTj
Reads like a midweek daytime PB thread.
I see that the tory CCHQ and Dennis Macshane has been at work disseminating anti UKIP propaganda. Funny how the Times and the Telegraph have found and are printing the same story. A last ditch effort to blunt the UKIP surge, or a daily campaign until the elections?
On the story: I'm sure a few, a very few, candidates haven't been properly vetted; but thats only to be expected after the rapid growth in membership and followers for Ukip in the last 6 months.
You're way behind the times, Mike. I posted this @ 09:53 hrs this morning. Old hat. Old news.
Too few Radicals!
Isn't Diane James on a council in Surrey, heading up a UKIP mini-opposition?
In pure organisational terms you have to hand it to UKIP. They aren't exactly a great political machine but this is a ajor step towards that.
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This anti UKIP propaganda will not work. On the contrary. It just shows that some people are afraid of them.
- Brat, Bruton, 27/4/2013 14:38
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the Daily Mail smear campaign begins
- pockets, Gravesend, 27/4/2013 14:37
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There will ba a campaign to discredit UKIP - because the Tories for one know that the rise in UKIPs vote means curtains ro them at the next election as its mainly their voters who will switch. So hes shaking hands with this guy - politicians shake hands with people all the time without knowing anything about them. I havent voted for years but Im voting UKIP next. Enjoy your day in the sun, but get ready for a long winter Cameron
- AliB, Lancashire, United Kingdom, 27/4/2013 14:37
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Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315656/The-UKIP-leader-Facebook-racist-Nigel-Farage-pictured-shaking-hands-party-candidate-supports-English-Defence-League.html#ixzz2RgOIg6km
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eU93VmFyZbg&feature=player_embedded
unlimited mass immigration of low-skilled labour kills the need for innovation. The Japanese decision to find a technological solution to the demographic shift means they'll end up with a hi-tech, uncrowded country in the future while those countries who choose - or allow to be chosen for them - the low-skilled route will end up as a giant slum.
I will keep those divisions under my eyes
FG - 28%
FF - 25%
SF - 16%
Lab - 11%
Reasearch carried out by CCHQ under Shapps, and accidently leaked to the Press, shows that respondents identifying with UKIP are three times more likely to be able to name a local pub than a local school.
Almost 82% of UKIP identifiers claimed to be "very disturbed" (61%) or "somewhat perplexed" (21%) when a landlord shouts "Hurry up please, it's time".
If the temporary dislocation caused by this demographic shift is met with technological solutions the Japanese will end up with a very hi-tech, uncrowded country.
Logic innit.
The fact that its an orchestrated campaign probably means that UKIP will get right of reply in the media over the weekend.
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3371/exclusive_leaked_documents_reveal_tory_spinners_in_intensive_anti_ukip_media_briefings
But I'd think their voters see it as water off a duck's back.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZToSae4QCl0
But what if the robots are manufactured in Taiwan or Korea?
I know you probably dont like having your theory that we cant fit any more immigrants in undermined by your own argument.
Until you tell us who you believe has a true motive of wishing to eradicate the native population and why, then everything you are saying makes no sense. Why wouldn't these mysterious people just use these robots you like to do the eradicating?
If accusations of racism are routinely used by one side of the immigration argument then why not do it back i.e. some of the pro-immigration advocates are motivated by anti-white racism - sauce for the goose is source for the gander and all that.
I'm fairly sanguine about UKIP's performance. They'll take votes off people who voted Lib Dem and Independent in 2009, as well as Conservatives and former non-voters. And, some of the people who'll vote for them, in Southern working class divisions, are people who deserted Labour after 2005, and who they'd want to regain.
WRT Surrey, UKIP must be sure to win Shalford.
Given these are claims you have specifically made, it's not unreasonable to ask who you believe these people to be and why they would like to eradicate the native population.
https://twitter.com/DGoodinson/status/328191581612023809/photo/1
https://twitter.com/AlanStrickland/status/328113317988155392/photo/1
"I’ll close by addressing Anna directly: Please, please piss off to Rushcliffe asap, Anna. You are a fucking disgrace. An utterly shit politician and Broxtowe cannot wait to see the twatting back of you.
Please excuse the foul language. It’s just an example of unusually free speech. Or at least your chosen definition of it."
http://beestonia.wordpress.com/2013/04/25/soubz-stropz/
The surprising and disappointing thing for me is that in spite of the council accepting that he had made the comments, he was cleared of any misconduct because the council decided he had made the comments in a private capacity.
John O. I see you have a big vote for Residents/Ratepayers in parts of Surrey. Are they really Condependents or are they quite distinct from the Tories?
A subtle form of homage, Andrea.
[Whoops: see antifrank got there first]
I want my money back!
Bought my local rag for the first time in years today, and the front page was all about the horrific and brutal murder of an 18 year old in shared council housing... Reading about events like these in a local paper makes the story feel much more shocking than doing when reading about them in a National/International...
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/danby_hall_and_o_toole_sentenced_for_murder_of_harold_hill_teen_luke_harwood_1_2166505
If everything on pb were required to be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, there would be very few posts indeed. I'm wondering how Ed Miliband is going to cope with keeping his pledge on that front.
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/romanian_robbery_gang_who_stole_1m_lived_rough_in_romford_woods_1_2000470
Thank God there arent many coming here next year!
In Mole Valley the independents are in coalition with the Tories in a hung Council
Immigration creates economic growth. Though in this case mostly in the Law enforcement, prisons, insurance and trauma counselling industries. All economic growth is good isn't it?
And all that lovely economic growth would be stopped by any form of immigration controls.
Should you require assistance to repel Ukip I shall naturally rally the Jacobite hordes in Hersham's hour of need.
Sadly the news chez Jack W is dire. A vast LibDem winning here triangle has sprouted in Redbourn and reports of massed ranks of bearded ones infiltrating within 2 miles are not to be taken lightly !!
You think the role of CCHQ is to spend their time messing around on facebook and twitter?
The only thing funnier would be if the Tories paid people to post on political websites.
And look how theyve helped the fall in violent crime... Mass immigration=lower crime remember... not to mention the housing crisis if theyre all happy to live rough in the woods!
Pe curând Gheorge!!