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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With four days to go until LE2013 the Sun turns its fire on Farage and Ukip

Given the sympathetic coverage that Nigel Farage and the purples have had in the run-up to LE2013 today’s coverage in the Sun about their local candidate selection procedures comes as something of a surprise.

Read the full story here

MonikerDiCanio

Thank God UKIP isn't vetting its candidates too tightly. We've had enough of homogeneous bores such as Miliband minor , Cameron and Clegg .

RichardNabavi

The key thing to understand about the press is that they are primarily interested in human-interest stories, and stories require twists, turns and dramas, heroes and villains, and especially heroes who turn out to be villains.

So they big up one set of politicians for a bit, and they get bored with that and lay into them instead. Last year, it was the turn of Cameron and the Conservatives to be vilified and ridiculed. Now it's the turn of UKIP to be vilified and Ed Miliband to be ridiculed.

No doubt there will be further twists and turns in the narrative before the next election. Who knows, perhaps Nick Clegg and the LibDems will have another spot in the sun as media darlings again?

anotherDave

RichardNabavi said:

The key thing to understand about the press is that they are primarily interested in stories, and stories require twists, turns and dramas, heroes and villains, and especially heroes who turn out to be villains.

So they big up one set of politicians for a bit, and they get bored with that and lay into them instead. Last year, it was the turn of Cameron and the Conservatives to be vilified and ridiculed. Now it's the turn of UKIP to be vilified and Ed Miliband to be ridiculed.

No doubt there will be further twists and turns in the narrative before the next election. Who knows, perhaps Nick Clegg and the LibDems will have another spot in the sun as media darlings again?

The current crop of anit-UKIP stories do seem to have been presented to various newspapers as outlines ready to go.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3371/exclusive_leaked_documents_reveal_tory_spinners_in_intensive_anti_ukip_media_briefings

Lots of newspaper stories are just re-phrased press releases. No reason that political articles should be any different. The TPA have been very successful with this.

Neil

I'm not usually slow to criticise Farage but this particular line is silly. It's a numbers game, the more candidates the better, if that means the odd fruit loop standing as a paper candidate so be it. Farage should say he's in favour of localism and wouldnt dream of interfering with local parties' selections. More serious is cases like the recent Kent by-election when their candidate's controversial views cost them a shot of a gain. But every party has had its share of embarrassing candidates, no process will ever eliminate them, UKIP should be congratulated for their monumental effort to increase candidate numbers.

Neil

@anotherDave

I imagine UKIP are delighted with the attention.

Did OGH get any insights into Tory expectations from his tete a tete a tete with Grant Shapps and Michael Green?

RichardNabavi

anotherDave said:

The current crop of anit-UKIP stories do seem to have been presented to various newspapers as outlines ready to go.

Yes, journalists are lazy. Just look at how often you get articles about some alleged trend or the evils of a government policy, which turn out to be reprints of something a pressure-group has put out.

SouthamObserver

anotherDave said:

RichardNabavi said:

The key thing to understand about the press is that they are primarily interested in stories, and stories require twists, turns and dramas, heroes and villains, and especially heroes who turn out to be villains.

So they big up one set of politicians for a bit, and they get bored with that and lay into them instead. Last year, it was the turn of Cameron and the Conservatives to be vilified and ridiculed. Now it's the turn of UKIP to be vilified and Ed Miliband to be ridiculed.

No doubt there will be further twists and turns in the narrative before the next election. Who knows, perhaps Nick Clegg and the LibDems will have another spot in the sun as media darlings again?

The current crop of anit-UKIP stories do seem to have been presented to various newspapers as outlines ready to go.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3371/exclusive_leaked_documents_reveal_tory_spinners_in_intensive_anti_ukip_media_briefings

Lots of newspaper stories are just re-phrased press releases. No reason that political articles should be any different. The TPA have been very successful with this.

Either they have been presented or they have all managed to get exactly the same story on exactly the same day. The Tories have form on this - ask Nick Clegg. But this is a very poor effort and will not change anything.

shiney2

Protecting Clegg too. This didn't gain prominence in the Sun either.

http://tinyurl.com/boo5645

Grandiose

Neil said:

I'm not usually slow to criticise Farage but this particular line is silly. It's a numbers game, the more candidates the better, if that means the odd fruit loop standing as a paper candidate so be it. Farage should say he's in favour of localism and wouldnt dream of interfering with local parties' selections. More serious is cases like the recent Kent by-election when their candidate's controversial views cost them a shot of a gain. But every party has had its share of embarrassing candidates, no process will ever eliminate them, UKIP should be congratulated for their monumental effort to increase candidate numbers.

It's more of a problem for UKIP than other parties because they have to establish electoral credibility: that is always the prerogative of the up-and-coming party (the SNP, for example, managed it).The more unsuitable candidates they field, the more they look like a lose group of activists than an organised party capable of governance, be that on a local or national scale.

These stories are not game-changers, though; they are merely knocks.

AlastairMeeks

It's not just the Sun. The Mail and the Telegraph also have very helpful stories for the Conservatives today re UKIP. Particularly interesting is this Polly Filla in the Telegraph, which will not have been planted by Tory high command:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10021046/Vote-for-Farage-Are-you-completely-bonkers.html

Perhaps the Conservatives have handled the press reform better than some of their critics would allow, at least so far as keeping their friendlier newspapers on board.

RichardNabavi

SouthamObserver said:

Either they have been presented or they have all managed to get exactly the same story on exactly the same day. The Tories have form on this

That's very funny from someone who voted for New Labour, the ultimate media manipulators!

MarkSenior

We are of course now seeing what the Conservatives mean by wanting to keep a free press . It is a press free to do their bidding and smear their political opponents as a quid pro quo ..

Jonathan

The truth is, with political participation so low and ridiculed, all parties rely increasingly on "interesting characters" to fill ballot papers. UKIP is not remotely special in that regard.

RichardNabavi

This is getting funnier and funnier. Now Mark Senior is complaining because the press are not being nice to UKIP.

Remind me, Mark, what did Chris Huhne say about the Tories and the EPP, or about Lady Warsi? I seem to remember the press being quite happy to give those remarks plenty of publicity.

Stark_Dawning

I see the crazy Left conspiracy theorists are fulminating - it's all a dark plot by the Tories, who control vast swathes of the media. In truth the Left have a soft spot for UKIP. They see them as taking votes from the Tories and getting Miliband in by default. It's truly risible that Labour are now dependent on Farage and are acting as his bat man.

Life_ina_market_town

@MarkSenior
Just remember that the Conservatives voted with the LibDems and the Labour Party to add the amendments to the Crime and Courts Act 2013 and the Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Act 2013. They support no more or less of a free press than the sainted LibDems.

SouthamObserver

RichardNabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Either they have been presented or they have all managed to get exactly the same story on exactly the same day. The Tories have form on this

That's very funny from someone who voted for New Labour, the ultimate media manipulators!

Yes, Richard we all understand that the Tories are politcal naifs, guilelessly seeking to spread nothing but sweetness and light in a world made dark and bad by Labour! It's just a complete coincidence that all these UKIP stories appear on the same day in all the Tory papers. It could not be anything else :-D

SouthamObserver

antifrank said:

It's not just the Sun. The Mail and the Telegraph also have very helpful stories for the Conservatives today re UKIP. Particularly interesting is this Polly Filla in the Telegraph, which will not have been planted by Tory high command:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10021046/Vote-for-Farage-Are-you-completely-bonkers.html

Perhaps the Conservatives have handled the press reform better than some of their critics would allow, at least so far as keeping their friendlier newspapers on board.

Wasn't press reform all Labour's fault?

AlastairMeeks

@SouthamObserver It's something I'd praise Labour and the Lib Dems for. But it's hardly surprising if Fleet Street's rogues decide to throw in their lot with the party that seems most sympathetic to them, even if ineffectually so.

Sir_Geoff

In UKIP's case, I'm not entirely sure such press is all downside. Those I know and speak to who are attracted to them tend to see them as something along the lines of a protest against professional politicians who 'speak the truth'. For some of these, slightly off-message candidates with less than wholesome backgrounds may only make them seem more colourful; they're (possibly) more likely to forgive a UKIP candidate for that than a Westminster drone.

Obviously, it depends upon the exact nature of the dirt dredged up. Some of the straight-laced who've leaked from the Tories may be put off by candidates who run strip clubs, but, even with the closet racist accusations, I think there are plenty who'd accept it.

Neil

@Sir_Geoff

Indeed, if I was in UKIP HQ today I would be intensely relaxed about these particular stories.

SouthamObserver

antifrank said:

@SouthamObserver It's something I'd praise Labour and the Lib Dems for. But it's hardly surprising if Fleet Street's rogues decide to throw in their lot with the party that seems most sympathetic to them, even if ineffectually so.

We'll see how pleased they are to have all been fed the same story. I don't think anyone seriously believes the papers concerned will not back the Tories come 2015, whatever happens with press reform.

MarkSenior

It is remarkable that the Conservatives have so little confidence in the appealof their policies that they are unable to fight an election campaign withoyt calling upon their press friends to conduct a smear campaign against the party they consider a major threat at that time .

Neil

Come on, @MarkSenior, I'm sure if you think hard enough you can probably recall an instance of the Lib Dems mentioning something about their opponents rather than focusing 100% on their own policies in previous campaigns.

SouthamObserver

Neil said:

@Sir_Geoff

Indeed, if I was in UKIP HQ today I would be intensely relaxed about these particular stories.

Yes indeed. A very clumsy effort from Mr Schapps. But perhaps a very revealing one.

MikeK

I found this article by Vicky Woods amusing as it confirms the UKIP wave in the shires even if she personaly abhors Farage:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10021046/Vote-for-Farage-Are-you-completely-bonkers.html

JohnO

As Sean Fear remarked a few days ago, UKIP are the true wild-card on May 2nd. But unlike him when canvassing (was he working for the Tories?), we are finding it almost impossible to detect their levels of support when out door-knocking. It really is.

It's of course anecdotal - all canvassing is - but my feeling here in leafy Surrey is that the Tories are doing a little better than last year (and this modest improvement is reflected in the national polls) and that gives cautious grounds for optimism (albeit the seat losses will be extensive given 2009).

BUT, and it is a major caveat, should UKIP perform well (10% plus) and I'm concerned they will despite the eery calm, then it could indeed be a grim Friday morning for those of us at the count.

Jonathan

Reminds me a little of the attacks on Clegg after the first debate. The last time the electorate departed from the script.

rogerh

I posted earlier today that UKIP id surpringly well in 2009 in terms of second places and vote shares over 29%.Building on this 100 seat gains largely from the Tories is not out of the question.
I wonder what price Dave will be paying for their help.Another squirm to give them want they want ie the staus quo of self regulation.Ed and Nick should now demand statutory regulation asince the croosparty approach has filed to be acceptable.Surely its not for the papers to dcecide what from of regulation they will have.?

MikeK

rogerh said:
Is there going to be a PB competition for seat changes in next weeks weeks unitary/county council elections
Have just been looking at national swing since April 2009 using ICM.This gives the following figures,CON to LAB 9%,CON TO LD 2.5%,LD TO LAB 6.5%.Likley UKIP swing CON to UKIP around 10%.
Applying these figures to last contests in 2009 gives the following seat cahnges(Thrasher and Rawlings figures in brackets)
CON -314(-310),LAB+218(+350),LD -3(-130),UKIP +98(+40)
The LD figure arises because of the small swing versus the Cons whchgive ssome seat gains to offset losses to Labour -not that high because in many Counties thre are few LD/LAB marginals.
The UKIP figure is impressive. But looking at the 2009 results shows UKIP in many second places with vote shares of 20% +.Farage has detoxified the UKIP brand and Eastleigh gave electoral credibility.

A nice and simple analysis, rogerh. If UKIP to get 98± seats I will be very pleased as my bet will come rolling home. If they get over 110 seats I'll lose my bet but I'll be even more pleased.

AndreaParma_82

Italian government looks like

8 PD
5 PDL
2 Monti
1 Radical
4 Technocrats

Sunil_Prasannan

E-day minus 4!

MikeK

tim said:
Fury at UKIP ‘fruit loops’
Farage election oddballs rapped</>

Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4905370/Fury-at-UKIP-fruit-loops-being-fielded-at-council-elections.html#ixzz2ReQ4UzTj

Reads like a midweek daytime PB thread.

I see that the tory CCHQ and Dennis Macshane has been at work disseminating anti UKIP propaganda. Funny how the Times and the Telegraph have found and are printing the same story. A last ditch effort to blunt the UKIP surge, or a daily campaign until the elections?

On the story: I'm sure a few, a very few, candidates haven't been properly vetted; but thats only to be expected after the rapid growth in membership and followers for Ukip in the last 6 months.

You're way behind the times, Mike. I posted this @ 09:53 hrs this morning. Old hat. Old news.

Neil

@Andrea

Too few Radicals!

JohnO

@tim - We are hoping to have a meeting with Uncle Eric in the not too distant future. I'll be sure to pass on your love.

anotherDave

@John O
Isn't Diane James on a council in Surrey, heading up a UKIP mini-opposition?

IOS

I can't help but these attacks will put off (if anyone!) those people who are more inclined to otherwise vote Labour. No one is being pulled up from UKIP cos they want toscrap trident and nationalise the largest 300 companies are they?

JohnO

@aD - I'm pretty sure she is a Waverley Borough Councillor leading a UKIP Gang of Three (who apparently loathe each other). She's not a SCC member.

IOS

If I were a UKIP supporter I would rather have managed become a nationwide party very quickly than a negative story in the Daily Mail.

In pure organisational terms you have to hand it to UKIP. They aren't exactly a great political machine but this is a ajor step towards that.

AndreaParma_82

Neil said:

@Andrea

Too few Radicals!

well, except of Bonino, the rest are mad

IOS

The Mail commentators also don't seem to fussed by it all. These are the top 3 comments.

-----------------------------------------------------

This anti UKIP propaganda will not work. On the contrary. It just shows that some people are afraid of them.

- Brat, Bruton, 27/4/2013 14:38
Click to rate Rating 841

Report abuse

the Daily Mail smear campaign begins

- pockets, Gravesend, 27/4/2013 14:37
Click to rate Rating 747

Report abuse

There will ba a campaign to discredit UKIP - because the Tories for one know that the rise in UKIPs vote means curtains ro them at the next election as its mainly their voters who will switch. So hes shaking hands with this guy - politicians shake hands with people all the time without knowing anything about them. I havent voted for years but Im voting UKIP next. Enjoy your day in the sun, but get ready for a long winter Cameron

- AliB, Lancashire, United Kingdom, 27/4/2013 14:37
Click to rate Rating 657

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315656/The-UKIP-leader-Facebook-racist-Nigel-Farage-pictured-shaking-hands-party-candidate-supports-English-Defence-League.html#ixzz2RgOIg6km
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

MrJones

technology > unlimited mass immigration of low-skilled labour

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eU93VmFyZbg&feature=player_embedded

unlimited mass immigration of low-skilled labour kills the need for innovation. The Japanese decision to find a technological solution to the demographic shift means they'll end up with a hi-tech, uncrowded country in the future while those countries who choose - or allow to be chosen for them - the low-skilled route will end up as a giant slum.

JohnO

PS for Andrea, our man with the Surrey swingometer. In Elmbridge, watch for Hersham and Weybridge Divisions - Cons hold at the mininum, otherwise disaster scenario, and Esher/East Molesey and Walton Divisions for possible Cons gains (yes, both could happen).

AndreaParma_82

John, thanks!

I will keep those divisions under my eyes

SouthamObserver

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

And why do they want to do that?

Neil

o/t Latest poll in Ireland:

FG - 28%
FF - 25%
SF - 16%
Lab - 11%

AveryLP

UKIP share in the upcoming elections would be much higher if the polling stations were located in public houses.

Reasearch carried out by CCHQ under Shapps, and accidently leaked to the Press, shows that respondents identifying with UKIP are three times more likely to be able to name a local pub than a local school.

Almost 82% of UKIP identifiers claimed to be "very disturbed" (61%) or "somewhat perplexed" (21%) when a landlord shouts "Hurry up please, it's time".

AndyJS

I imagine UKIP will be happy with the oxygen of publicity being given to them by The Sun today.

MikeK

JohnO said:

PS for Andrea, our man with the Surrey swingometer. In Elmbridge, watch for Hersham and Weybridge Divisions - Cons hold at the mininum, otherwise disaster scenario, and Esher/East Molesey and Walton Divisions for possible Cons gains (yes, both could happen).

Will JohnO go into mourning if they get thrashed in Hersham and Weybridge? It must be remembered that this area was the one of the first to be attacked and largely destroyed in H.G. Wells' "War of the Worlds". Careful JohnO! The Martians in the shape of UKIP are out to get you. LOL

MrJones

tim said:

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

Of course the native population in Japan is doing a pretty good job of eradicating itself

Japan's government yesterday released stark new evidence that the nation is on the brink of a demographic crisis, forecasting that its population will shrink by 30 per cent in the next half-century, while soaring life expectancy will further burden the state.

The report estimates that by 2060 the number of people in the Asian powerhouse will have fallen from 128 million to about 87 million, of which almost 40 per cent will be 65 or older.

Japan's population began falling in 2004 and is ageing faster than any other on the planet. More than 22 per cent of Japanese are already 65 or older and women will have roughly 1.3 children, well below the population replacement rate. Experts have warned for years that the inverted population pyramid is a harbinger of economic and social disaster, but the institute's prediction is one of the grimmest yet.

It's a BNP paradise

Japan's low birthrate is not seriously out of kilter with the rest of the developed world, but the country is unusual among its economic competitors in shunning mass immigration – roughly 2 per cent of the population is classed as "foreign".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japans-population-to-fall-by-third-in-50-years-6297289.html

As the population shrinks housing costs will go down and the birth rate will go up again. It will hit replacement at a level of population density that suits the people.

If the temporary dislocation caused by this demographic shift is met with technological solutions the Japanese will end up with a very hi-tech, uncrowded country.

SouthamObserver

tim said:

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

Of course the native population in Japan is doing a pretty good job of eradicating itself

Japan's government yesterday released stark new evidence that the nation is on the brink of a demographic crisis, forecasting that its population will shrink by 30 per cent in the next half-century, while soaring life expectancy will further burden the state.

The report estimates that by 2060 the number of people in the Asian powerhouse will have fallen from 128 million to about 87 million, of which almost 40 per cent will be 65 or older.

Japan's population began falling in 2004 and is ageing faster than any other on the planet. More than 22 per cent of Japanese are already 65 or older and women will have roughly 1.3 children, well below the population replacement rate. Experts have warned for years that the inverted population pyramid is a harbinger of economic and social disaster, but the institute's prediction is one of the grimmest yet.

It's a BNP paradise

Japan's low birthrate is not seriously out of kilter with the rest of the developed world, but the country is unusual among its economic competitors in shunning mass immigration – roughly 2 per cent of the population is classed as "foreign".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japans-population-to-fall-by-third-in-50-years-6297289.html

Don't worry, the robots will look after all the old people. The important thing is to preserve the integrity of the race.

MrJones

SouthamObserver said:

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

And why do they want to do that?

If racism exists then either it's the sole preserve of white people or some people will be motivated by anti-white racism as to say it is solely the preserve of white people is anti-white racism in itself.

Logic innit.

DeeDee99

Conservative Central Office has orchestrated a smear campaign against UKIP. The Commentator has the leaked documents. The Nasty Party is still nasty. So much for Cameron's detoxification.

The fact that its an orchestrated campaign probably means that UKIP will get right of reply in the media over the weekend.
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3371/exclusive_leaked_documents_reveal_tory_spinners_in_intensive_anti_ukip_media_briefings

malcolmg

MrJones said:

tim said:

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

Of course the native population in Japan is doing a pretty good job of eradicating itself

Japan's government yesterday released stark new evidence that the nation is on the brink of a demographic crisis, forecasting that its population will shrink by 30 per cent in the next half-century, while soaring life expectancy will further burden the state.

The report estimates that by 2060 the number of people in the Asian powerhouse will have fallen from 128 million to about 87 million, of which almost 40 per cent will be 65 or older.

Japan's population began falling in 2004 and is ageing faster than any other on the planet. More than 22 per cent of Japanese are already 65 or older and women will have roughly 1.3 children, well below the population replacement rate. Experts have warned for years that the inverted population pyramid is a harbinger of economic and social disaster, but the institute's prediction is one of the grimmest yet.

It's a BNP paradise

Japan's low birthrate is not seriously out of kilter with the rest of the developed world, but the country is unusual among its economic competitors in shunning mass immigration – roughly 2 per cent of the population is classed as "foreign".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japans-population-to-fall-by-third-in-50-years-6297289.html

As the population shrinks housing costs will go down and the birth rate will go up again. It will hit replacement at a level of population density that suits the people.

If the temporary dislocation caused by this demographic shift is met with technological solutions the Japanese will end up with a very hi-tech, uncrowded country.

Exactly and it will be far superior to our high unemployment low wage multi-cultural overcrowded bankrupt disaster site of a country.

NickPalmer

The UKIP website a few weeks ago included an appeal to contact them if one was standing for UKIP, so as I understand it they were taking anyone who they didn't positively know to be unacceptable.

But I'd think their voters see it as water off a duck's back.

Neil

MrJones said:

the Japanese will end up with a very hi-tech, uncrowded country.

The Japanese will live in a country which has a similar population density to the UK's today.

SouthamObserver

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver said:

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

And why do they want to do that?

If racism exists then either it's the sole preserve of white people or some people will be motivated by anti-white racism as to say it is solely the preserve of white people is anti-white racism in itself.

Logic innit.

No, I'm afraid that makes no sense. Who wants to wipe out the native population of the UK, why do they want to and how will robots stop them?

MrJones

Neil said:

MrJones said:

the Japanese will end up with a very hi-tech, uncrowded country.

The Japanese will live in a country which has a similar population density to the UK's today.

Don't you think using UK instead of England is completely dishonest given the *vastly* different population densities of the various components?

MrJones

more cool robot stuff

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZToSae4QCl0

SouthamObserver

tim said:

@SouthamObserver

Don't worry, the robots will look after all the old people. The important thing is to preserve the integrity of the race.

I'm working on a robot that puts in catheters while singing "No Surrender Tor The IRA", planning on selling it around all the BNP pubs.
Except the BNP seem to be eradicating themselves.
I blame the Jews and the BBC

I'd have thought robots that did all the work would enable destruction of the volk, rather than prevent it. The elders of zion could get the robots to do the wiping out and then the clearing up afterwards.

AveryLP

SouthamObserver said:

tim said:

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

Of course the native population in Japan is doing a pretty good job of eradicating itself

Japan's government yesterday released stark new evidence that the nation is on the brink of a demographic crisis, forecasting that its population will shrink by 30 per cent in the next half-century, while soaring life expectancy will further burden the state.

The report estimates that by 2060 the number of people in the Asian powerhouse will have fallen from 128 million to about 87 million, of which almost 40 per cent will be 65 or older.

Japan's population began falling in 2004 and is ageing faster than any other on the planet. More than 22 per cent of Japanese are already 65 or older and women will have roughly 1.3 children, well below the population replacement rate. Experts have warned for years that the inverted population pyramid is a harbinger of economic and social disaster, but the institute's prediction is one of the grimmest yet.

It's a BNP paradise

Japan's low birthrate is not seriously out of kilter with the rest of the developed world, but the country is unusual among its economic competitors in shunning mass immigration – roughly 2 per cent of the population is classed as "foreign".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japans-population-to-fall-by-third-in-50-years-6297289.html

Don't worry, the robots will look after all the old people. The important thing is to preserve the integrity of the race.

On first appraisal this looks like a very sound idea.

But what if the robots are manufactured in Taiwan or Korea?

MrJones

SouthamObserver said:

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver said:

MrJones said:

tim said:

@MrJones.

Don't fall in love too soon, the robots also come in brown.

The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population.

And why do they want to do that?

If racism exists then either it's the sole preserve of white people or some people will be motivated by anti-white racism as to say it is solely the preserve of white people is anti-white racism in itself.

Logic innit.

No, I'm afraid that makes no sense. Who wants to wipe out the native population of the UK, why do they want to and how will robots stop them?

It makes perfect sense. Technology > mass immigration of low-skilled labour as a solution to the demographic shift. Simple.

Grandiose

The Conservative Party has found some publically available information about rival candidates and passed it to several newspapers that might find it good copy. The press might need regulating to prevent some more heinous scheme, but this I do not recognise as needing disapproval. Potential repsentatives of the people must properly be held to account for the principles that have advocated and the beliefs on which they stand. The trivial cases included in the CCHQ briefings was dismissed, as it would be by the reader. This all holds for any political party.

Neil

MrJones said:

Don't you think using UK instead of England is completely dishonest given the *vastly* different population densities of the various components?

No, I was comparing the current population density of the country you live in (and, given your past support for the BNP presumably believe is overcrowded) to the future population density of a country you claim will be "uncrowded" and pointing out that they will actually be very similar.

I know you probably dont like having your theory that we cant fit any more immigrants in undermined by your own argument.

MrJones

Neil said:

MrJones said:

Don't you think using UK instead of England is completely dishonest given the *vastly* different population densities of the various components?

No, I was comparing the current population density of the country you live in (and, given your past support for the BNP presumably believe is overcrowded) to the future population density of a country you claim will be "uncrowded" and pointing out that they will actually be very similar.

I know you probably dont like having your theory that we cant fit any more immigrants in undermined by your own argument.

Well i don't feel very undermined considering the population densities in various constituent parts of the UK are so *vastly* different. If the differences were more marginal then maybe.

SouthamObserver

@MrJones

Until you tell us who you believe has a true motive of wishing to eradicate the native population and why, then everything you are saying makes no sense. Why wouldn't these mysterious people just use these robots you like to do the eradicating?

MrJones

SouthamObserver said:

@MrJones

Until you tell us who you believe has a true motive of wishing to eradicate the native population and why, then everything you are saying makes no sense. Why wouldn't these mysterious people just use these robots you like to do the eradicating?

You're getting a bit sci-fi now.

If accusations of racism are routinely used by one side of the immigration argument then why not do it back i.e. some of the pro-immigration advocates are motivated by anti-white racism - sauce for the goose is source for the gander and all that.

Sean_F

John O, yes, I was canvassing for the Conservatives in Potters Bar.

I'm fairly sanguine about UKIP's performance. They'll take votes off people who voted Lib Dem and Independent in 2009, as well as Conservatives and former non-voters. And, some of the people who'll vote for them, in Southern working class divisions, are people who deserted Labour after 2005, and who they'd want to regain.

WRT Surrey, UKIP must be sure to win Shalford.

MrJones

tim said:

@MrJones.

If you're sensitive to charges of racism why join the BNP, its a bit like dressing up as a lollipop man and taking offence when children ask you to help them across the road.

The political class are covering up 1000s of gang-rapes.

anotherDave

tim said:

@Neil

I think it's reasonable that the average BNP activist lives within a reasonable distance of a kebab shop.
In fact there are probably more kebab shops now than there are BNP activists in most parts of the country.

I thought the nation's kebab shops had been replaced with dixie/southern/american fried chicken shops?

JohnO

Sean_F said:

John O, yes, I was canvassing for the Conservatives in Potters Bar.

I'm fairly sanguine about UKIP's performance. They'll take votes off people who voted Lib Dem and Independent in 2009, as well as Conservatives and former non-voters. And, some of the people who'll vote for them, in Southern working class divisions, are people who deserted Labour after 2005, and who they'd want to regain.

WRT Surrey, UKIP must be sure to win Shalford.

Thanks. As ever, your analysis makes good sense. Aye, I imagine Shalford is a nailed-on UKIP gain.

SouthamObserver

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver said:

@MrJones

Until you tell us who you believe has a true motive of wishing to eradicate the native population and why, then everything you are saying makes no sense. Why wouldn't these mysterious people just use these robots you like to do the eradicating?

You're getting a bit sci-fi now.

If accusations of racism are routinely used by one side of the immigration argument then why not do it back i.e. some of the pro-immigration advocates are motivated by anti-white racism - sauce for the goose is source for the gander and all that.

There is nothing sci-fi about quoting you directly: "The technological solution to the demographic shift would remove one argument / excuse from those whose true motive is a desire to see the eradication of the native population."

Given these are claims you have specifically made, it's not unreasonable to ask who you believe these people to be and why they would like to eradicate the native population.

AlastairMeeks

@anotherDave There are plenty of kebab shops around Old Street still. One or two of them even serve halfway decent food.

SouthamObserver

anotherDave said:

tim said:

@Neil

I think it's reasonable that the average BNP activist lives within a reasonable distance of a kebab shop.
In fact there are probably more kebab shops now than there are BNP activists in most parts of the country.

I thought the nation's kebab shops had been replaced with dixie/southern/american fried chicken shops?

The nation does not have kebab shops. North London does. Any kebab shop outside North London is rank and pointless. Everyone knows this.

anotherDave

The UKIP campaign office in South Shields appears to be right next door to a pub. Good planning there. :-)

https://twitter.com/DGoodinson/status/328191581612023809/photo/1

AndreaParma_82

David is back in South Shields today
https://twitter.com/AlanStrickland/status/328113317988155392/photo/1

AlastairMeeks

@AndreaParma_82 Is our double-barrelled candidate's fifth pledge to eat ice cream?

AndyJS

Beestonia on Anna Soubry:

"I’ll close by addressing Anna directly: Please, please piss off to Rushcliffe asap, Anna. You are a fucking disgrace. An utterly shit politician and Broxtowe cannot wait to see the twatting back of you.

Please excuse the foul language. It’s just an example of unusually free speech. Or at least your chosen definition of it."

http://beestonia.wordpress.com/2013/04/25/soubz-stropz/

Richard_Tyndall

In response to this Tory smear campaign I went and did a very quick google trawl to look at cases of Tory councillors over the last three years who have been hauled up for homophobic and racist comments. There were a surprising number but the one that struck me as most surprising (for the outcome not the attack) was a councillor in Thanet in Kent who was given a police caution for leaving messages on a bisexual councillors phone saying he hoped he got Aids.

The surprising and disappointing thing for me is that in spite of the council accepting that he had made the comments, he was cleared of any misconduct because the council decided he had made the comments in a private capacity.

AndreaParma_82

antifrank said:

@AndreaParma_82 Is our double-barrelled candidate's fifth pledge to eat ice cream?

LOL. She ate it with Ed last week. So she must do with David now.

AlastairMeeks

I hope that it isn't a Mr Whippy, or her anti-Thatcher credentials will be irreparably tarnished.

IOS

Actually Tim you would be surprised when the membership list was leaked most members lived in the countryside.

Sean_F

Richard, that was probably in accordance with the Council's code of conduct. I take your bigger point about people in greenhouses.

John O. I see you have a big vote for Residents/Ratepayers in parts of Surrey. Are they really Condependents or are they quite distinct from the Tories?

AveryLP

AndreaParma_82 said:

antifrank said:

@AndreaParma_82 Is our double-barrelled candidate's fifth pledge to eat ice cream?

LOL. She ate it with Ed last week. So she must do with David now.

It's a Mr Whippy ice cream.

A subtle form of homage, Andrea.

[Whoops: see antifrank got there first]

AveryLP

Richard_Tyndall said:

In response to this Tory smear campaign I went and did a very quick google trawl to look at cases of Tory councillors over the last three years who have been hauled up for homophobic and racist comments. There were a surprising number but the one that struck me as most surprising (for the outcome not the attack) was a councillor in Thanet in Kent who was given a police caution for leaving messages on a bisexual councillors phone saying he hoped he got Aids.

The surprising and disappointing thing for me is that in spite of the council accepting that he had made the comments, he was cleared of any misconduct because the council decided he had made the comments in a private capacity.

Stay aloof, Richard. Stay aloof.

Richard_Tyndall

AveryLP said:

Stay aloof, Richard. Stay aloof.

Isn't that what you use in the shower? You need to sort out your spell checker :-)

sam

Imagine the outrage from potential UKIP voters when its revealed one of the candidates is taking the side of vigilante whistleblowers who lure paedophiles into a trap before getting them nicked.

I want my money back!

sam

Offski Topic

Bought my local rag for the first time in years today, and the front page was all about the horrific and brutal murder of an 18 year old in shared council housing... Reading about events like these in a local paper makes the story feel much more shocking than doing when reading about them in a National/International...

http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/danby_hall_and_o_toole_sentenced_for_murder_of_harold_hill_teen_luke_harwood_1_2166505

AlastairMeeks

tim said:

Isn't the Mr Whippy thing a myth, like the low taxes,tough on crime, anti Europe, low state spending, low dependency myths?

Yes. But since so many other myths about Mrs Thatcher are unshakeable, I didn't see any point in letting that get in the way of a one line light-hearted comment.

If everything on pb were required to be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, there would be very few posts indeed. I'm wondering how Ed Miliband is going to cope with keeping his pledge on that front.

AveryLP

tim said:

Isn't the Mr Whippy thing a myth, like the low taxes,tough on crime, anti Europe, low state spending, low dependency myths?

All true tim.

sam

More local news!

http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/romanian_robbery_gang_who_stole_1m_lived_rough_in_romford_woods_1_2000470

Thank God there arent many coming here next year!

IOS

If the article about CCHQ leaking all this stuff to the press is true then Shapps has amused me more than I thought possible. His staff should be worrying about the logistics of the local elections not pissing around of facebook stalking very possible UKIP candidate.

JohnO

Sean_F said:

John O. I see you have a big vote for Residents/Ratepayers in parts of Surrey. Are they really Condependents or are they quite distinct from the Tories?

Not only distinct but virulenly anti by and large, particularly in my patch.

In Mole Valley the independents are in coalition with the Tories in a hung Council

sam

My last three posts look like an extremely clumsy and obvious bit of propaganda! But on my life I didnt intend that

foxinsoxuk

sam said:

More local news!

http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/romanian_robbery_gang_who_stole_1m_lived_rough_in_romford_woods_1_2000470

Thank God there arent many coming here next year!

Don't you understand Sam?

Immigration creates economic growth. Though in this case mostly in the Law enforcement, prisons, insurance and trauma counselling industries. All economic growth is good isn't it?

And all that lovely economic growth would be stopped by any form of immigration controls.

peterbuss

I for one am absolutely delighted if the Conservative Party has decided at last to take the gloves off in fighting UKIP.Up to the present time its all been about appeasement and as I have warned time and again that will never work.UKIP are the Tories deadliest enemy - their stated aim is to destroy the Conservative Party and for the life of me I could never understand why the hands off approach.The same searching scrutiny needs to be taken towards the UKIP manifesto which is basically a "wish list"which is in quite a few ways very appealing to instinctive conservtive voters and includes all manner of goodies which in better days we would all love to have.But its glaring gaps and inconsistencies should be easy to expose and will need to be. Farage is an astute politician and knows the right buttons to press and in that sense I take my hat off to him. But he's flying too near the sun and his wings will melt and cause him to fall to the earth.That will not happen before thursday and he will cause a tory bloodbath - I predict losses in the region of 800-850.I am a Party member and the vibes I am gettting is that its going to be one awful horror show- under the duvet time I guess! And then all that will be followed by the headless chicken talk of replacing the PM.They may well do it - sadly they are stupid enough to.Just hope sanity prevails.Cheers everybody.

JackW

@JohnO

Should you require assistance to repel Ukip I shall naturally rally the Jacobite hordes in Hersham's hour of need.

Sadly the news chez Jack W is dire. A vast LibDem winning here triangle has sprouted in Redbourn and reports of massed ranks of bearded ones infiltrating within 2 miles are not to be taken lightly !!

IOS

TSE

You think the role of CCHQ is to spend their time messing around on facebook and twitter?

The only thing funnier would be if the Tories paid people to post on political websites.

sam

foxinsoxuk said:

sam said:

More local news!

http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/romanian_robbery_gang_who_stole_1m_lived_rough_in_romford_woods_1_2000470

Thank God there arent many coming here next year!

Don't you understand Sam?

Immigration creates economic growth. Though in this case mostly in the Law enforcement, prisons, insurance and trauma counselling industries. All economic growth is good isn't it?

And all that lovely economic growth would be stopped by any form of immigration controls.

Their children will probably help raise the standard of education around here too. My Dads a teaching assistant in one of the worst schools in the area, he will be chuffed!

And look how theyve helped the fall in violent crime... Mass immigration=lower crime remember... not to mention the housing crisis if theyre all happy to live rough in the woods!

Pe curând Gheorge!!

Sean_F

800-850 losses is way too high a prediction. Trust Rallings & Thrasher on this. In most Counties, the Conservatives' main challenger is the Lib Dems. They too will be losing seats and votes, compared to 2009.