politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again the betting moves to the general election taking pl
Comments
-
-
No he couldn't. The red lines were never an issue, every single one of them was an entirely reasonable pledge he made for Vote Leave and abandoning any of them would have been a betrayal that would have seen Brexiteers vote it down.noneoftheabove said:
Now probably only the Tory rebels he kicked out of the party. When he took over, he could have changed Mays red lines and found a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
May as well ride a unicorn into Parliament as do that.noneoftheabove said:
Is that why he has reached out boldly across the house, building relationships with opponents and generously comprimising to ensure parliament can create a majority for Brexit?Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
Who was willing to compromise with Boris to ensure Parliament can create a majority for Brexit?
Do you mean Corbyn? Swinson? Sturgeon? Grieve?
Boris is appealing over their heads to the voters. Quite right too.0 -
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:0 -
Why?SouthamObserver said:
In which case he is a psychopath.Byronic said:
I can assure you he genuinely thinks that.SouthamObserver said:
If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
He's trying to avoid that outcome.0 -
For people who claimed to be seeking Parliamentary sovereignty, they’ve got an awfully shaky grasp of the concept.Cyclefree said:
Outline the legal arguments, please, on which the courts would hold an Act of Parliament to be invalid.TGOHF2 said:
Arithmetic would suggest it would be closer than any or May’s attempts - possibly even pass.AlastairMeeks said:
Why do you think it would pass the House of Commons?dyedwoolie said:
Put it to the house immediately, pass it, show the EU they have a good to go solution and let them force no dealTGOHF2 said:Boris’s deal has the DUP and most of the Spartans on board - should put it to the house...
Would certainly pass if the Benn act is debunked in court.0 -
Like staying in the single market?Philip_Thompson said:
No he couldn't. The red lines were never an issue, every single one of them was an entirely reasonable pledge he made for Vote Leave and abandoning any of them would have been a betrayal that would have seen Brexiteers vote it down.noneoftheabove said:
Now probably only the Tory rebels he kicked out of the party. When he took over, he could have changed Mays red lines and found a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
May as well ride a unicorn into Parliament as do that.noneoftheabove said:
Is that why he has reached out boldly across the house, building relationships with opponents and generously comprimising to ensure parliament can create a majority for Brexit?Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
Who was willing to compromise with Boris to ensure Parliament can create a majority for Brexit?
Do you mean Corbyn? Swinson? Sturgeon? Grieve?
Boris is appealing over their heads to the voters. Quite right too.0 -
It won’t there will be a few who moan and some who will vote for farage but most will be glad that it’s over and get on with their lives after all they weren’t really bothered about it in the first place until the Tory party used it to diffuse its leak of votes to ukip.Byronic said:
Fuck the kremlinology, it’s boring and pointless. Fact is, this is self evidently true. Voter anger will boil over if Brexit is stymied. Idiot Remainers and imbecile ERGers need to wake up and smell the bacon. They are both playing a dangerous and stupid game.rottenborough said:
"One government insider".Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
Can't think who from the Durham area this could possibly be.
If you thwart democracy the people will turn to non-democracy0 -
Is booze then a Giffen good in economic parlance (demand goes up instead of down when the price rises) and why is cider the exception?TGOHF2 said:No of alcohol units sold via off trade has risen since minimum pricing. https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vkEzz1Y4Jtk/XYzVXxddaPI/AAAAAAAAHCw/lqjC6od65I05-94Og6wh7b6dwszFPJyaQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/8D8F6F42-1FCF-4C50-A701-0E3790CC5A50.jpeg
0 -
Those were the tactics of the DDR at the Berlin wall and the German/German border. It doesn't matter whether people are trying to get in or out, either way it's abhorrent.rottenborough said:
0 -
People were killed because some people wanted Northern Ireland to become part of Ireland.Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
We don't.
give in.
to terrorism.0 -
So if that is to be the policy - which could gain support - why on earth allow your opponents an open goal to conflate it with the illegal asset stealing that was clearly in the conference motion?kinabalu said:
The private schools policy in the manifesto will be just end the tax breaks plus some stuff on sharing facilities.noneoftheabove said:A different leader may not tolerate anti-semitism or advocate cultist divisive politics perhaps?
And it is not there are not enough votes in tackling inequality and privilege. It is that swing voters think Corbyn will create chaos in trying (and likely failing) to achieve those aims.
Take the private schools example - charging VAT on private school fees would be an easy argument to make and could get majority support but instead they suggest stealing assets of private schools. Not only does this make people think its a rubbish policy, it makes people wonder what else they might steal?
I am absolutely committed to tackling inequality and privilege but think Corbyn would make things worse not better.
On the general point, though -
I think any Labour leader coming from the radical left would be demonized. The true objection in the case of most anti-Corbyn influencers is not to the person but to the political direction offered.
This is not to say that I doubt your personal position on the matter.
It is just poor leadership, communication and planning, which results in progressive politics being marginalised not enhanced. Not all leaders of the left would be so stupid.
0 -
Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."0
-
He’s doing exactly the opposite he wants them on the street.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?SouthamObserver said:
In which case he is a psychopath.Byronic said:
I can assure you he genuinely thinks that.SouthamObserver said:
If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
He's trying to avoid that outcome.
0 -
And to think they called the Remain campaign Project Fear!Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
"Mr Johnson's team" (i.e. Dom) have no genuine fears about anything. What they are doing is simply ratcheting up the chaos, hysteria and hate in the hope that this will allow them to railroad through whatever they want. Maybe there will be another Jo Cox type tragedy, with some susceptible loon being triggered to such a degree they do something that can never be taken back. Maybe, hopefully, there won't. But Dom doesn't give a damn about any of that, nor about healing the divisions in our country. As long as he is at the centre of the s***storm and is recognised as the genius he so passionately believes himself to be, it's all fine for him. Classic Dom.0 -
The Lib Dems problem will be, if had to guess, in Tory Remain seats in the SE. For many wealthy Remain Tories, there is too much risk that the election could bring about a Corbyn Government and all that entails. I think the Lib Dems will do extremely well in wealthy urban constituencies that Labour hold (think Sheffield Hallam / Manchester Withington types) but will do worse than expected in the SE.Brom said:
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:0 -
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1179295383782088704MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
0 -
Strong ciders had a tax anomaly- the price of them has rocketed due to minimum unit pricing.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is booze then a Giffen good in economic parlance (demand goes up instead of down when the price rises) and why is cider the exception?TGOHF2 said:No of alcohol units sold via off trade has risen since minimum pricing. https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vkEzz1Y4Jtk/XYzVXxddaPI/AAAAAAAAHCw/lqjC6od65I05-94Og6wh7b6dwszFPJyaQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/8D8F6F42-1FCF-4C50-A701-0E3790CC5A50.jpeg
So hard drinkers have switched..0 -
ERG wing was 1 in 6 in parliament, they didnt have the votes to block a soft Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
No he couldn't. The red lines were never an issue, every single one of them was an entirely reasonable pledge he made for Vote Leave and abandoning any of them would have been a betrayal that would have seen Brexiteers vote it down.noneoftheabove said:
Now probably only the Tory rebels he kicked out of the party. When he took over, he could have changed Mays red lines and found a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
May as well ride a unicorn into Parliament as do that.noneoftheabove said:
Is that why he has reached out boldly across the house, building relationships with opponents and generously comprimising to ensure parliament can create a majority for Brexit?Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
Who was willing to compromise with Boris to ensure Parliament can create a majority for Brexit?
Do you mean Corbyn? Swinson? Sturgeon? Grieve?
Boris is appealing over their heads to the voters. Quite right too.0 -
Labour on 21% there is no danger of a Corbyn Government.TheKitchenCabinet said:
The Lib Dems problem will be, if had to guess, in Tory Remain seats in the SE. For many wealthy Remain Tories, there is too much risk that the election could bring about a Corbyn Government and all that entails. I think the Lib Dems will do extremely well in wealthy urban constituencies that Labour hold (think Sheffield Hallam / Manchester Withington types) but will do worse than expected in the SE.Brom said:
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:0 -
No shit sherlock. Do you really think there is a broad appetite in the UK for a "Labour leader coming from the radical left"?kinabalu said:
The private schools policy in the manifesto will be just end the tax breaks plus some stuff on sharing facilities.noneoftheabove said:A different leader may not tolerate anti-semitism or advocate cultist divisive politics perhaps?
And it is not there are not enough votes in tackling inequality and privilege. It is that swing voters think Corbyn will create chaos in trying (and likely failing) to achieve those aims.
Take the private schools example - charging VAT on private school fees would be an easy argument to make and could get majority support but instead they suggest stealing assets of private schools. Not only does this make people think its a rubbish policy, it makes people wonder what else they might steal?
I am absolutely committed to tackling inequality and privilege but think Corbyn would make things worse not better.
On the general point, though -
I think any Labour leader coming from the radical left would be demonized. The true objection in the case of most anti-Corbyn influencers is not to the person but to the political direction offered.
This is not to say that I doubt your personal position on the matter.
LOL x20 -
And the SW.TheKitchenCabinet said:
The Lib Dems problem will be, if had to guess, in Tory Remain seats in the SE. For many wealthy Remain Tories, there is too much risk that the election could bring about a Corbyn Government and all that entails. I think the Lib Dems will do extremely well in wealthy urban constituencies that Labour hold (think Sheffield Hallam / Manchester Withington types) but will do worse than expected in the SE.Brom said:
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:0 -
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
0 -
Sammy Wilson, Steve Baker and Kenneth Clarke heading to the AYE lobby?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
0 -
At the risk of setting off the antisemitism screechers, it is also the tactic of the IDF on the Gaza border. No doubt that's what put the idea into Trump's big, empty, orange head.eristdoof said:
Those were the tactics of the DDR at the Berlin wall and the German/German border. It doesn't matter whether people are trying to get in or out, either way it's abhorrent.rottenborough said:0 -
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
1 -
Project fear!Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
0 -
We need to hear from Soubry and Grieve...noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
0 -
We had December elections in 1910 - 1918 - 1923. November elections took place in 1922 and 1935. Any sensitivity re- Armistice Day was surely greater in the pre-war period. Postal voting is also so much more readily available.Yellow_Submarine said:Remembrance Sunday and Armistice Day are compact this year on 10th and 11th of November. Any election campaign spanning them would need at least a 48hr campaign suspention as well as a protocol agreed with the CofE, Palace and British Legion so events aren't dragged into it. While this is not insurmountable many will question the taste of deliberately clashing a divisive campaign with the immeadiate run up. It's also a hostage to fortune having a Brexit election while memories of war are being aired.
0 -
Any evidence of this?Philip_Thompson said:
The electorate are not idiots2 -
Grieve will say NEVER. NEVER. NEVER (in that polite, tinney, robotic voice)TGOHF2 said:
We need to hear from Soubry and Grieve...noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Soubry will decide after her sixth gin and tonic.
0 -
They haven’t voted for a Labour govt in over 14 years..Mango said:
Any evidence of this?Philip_Thompson said:
The electorate are not idiots0 -
Although Parliament does get to "choose" the executive. But yes, the main issue is that the May government before and the Johnson government now refuses to work within the parameters set by the electorate (the MPs) and continually tries to force through its policy desires without involving the rest of parliament or even attempting to get a majority of parliaments support.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem is the executive, not the legislature. The executive has continually sought to impose its will on the legislature despite lacking the numbers. It has not sought to construct a majority by compromising. Obviously this was always unlikely to be a winning gambit.DavidL said:There are an unusually large number of people facing the end of their political careers come the election. Those that joined the TIG group, some of those who went on to join the Lib Dems, a significant chunk of Tories currently without the whip and sundry stragglers such as O'Mara. In addition any Labour MP vulnerable to a 5% swing to the Tories or the SNP and probably higher to the Lib Dems will not fancy rolling the dice much, especially if their seat voted leave. Tories from the SW, London or Scotland will be yet another group feeling distinctly edgy.
This has been the worst performing and most shambolic Parliament in my lifetime. I think those who bet on them not being in any rush to face their employers are on to a good thing.
In due course a slimline government will replace this one. Then I expect Parliament will work considerably better without the need for an election.0 -
TGOHF2 said:
They haven’t voted for a Labour govt in over 14 years..Mango said:
Any evidence of this?Philip_Thompson said:
The electorate are not idiots
0 -
Criticising specific policies and actions by Israel (the country) is not Antisemitic. Crying racism to censor the views of opponents is in itself indirectly racist.Theuniondivvie said:
At the risk of setting off the antisemitism screechers, it is also the tactic of the IDF on the Gaza border. No doubt that's what put the idea into Trump's big, empty, orange head.eristdoof said:
Those were the tactics of the DDR at the Berlin wall and the German/German border. It doesn't matter whether people are trying to get in or out, either way it's abhorrent.rottenborough said:0 -
I don't know where that image you're linking to comes from... some arsehole's blog it would seem. But it does seem to be fake news. Here's the peer-reviewed study from the British Medical Journal:TGOHF2 said:No of alcohol units sold via off trade has risen since minimum pricing. https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vkEzz1Y4Jtk/XYzVXxddaPI/AAAAAAAAHCw/lqjC6od65I05-94Og6wh7b6dwszFPJyaQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/8D8F6F42-1FCF-4C50-A701-0E3790CC5A50.jpeg
https://www.bmj.com/content/366/bmj.l52740 -
Which means the EU won't be.GIN1138 said:
The time to get excited about the possibility of a Deal will be when Arlene Foster is most definitely NOT up for it.
For example the one that I can envisage one day getting done - the WA amended for a 5 to 7 year time-limited NI only backstop.0 -
logical_song said: 0
-
Turnout at the February 1950 election was 84% - and over 78% in February 1974.alex. said:There are very good reasons for not having autumn (or god forbid) winter elections. Voters hate them. Party workers hate them. Broadcasters hate them. Local authorities hate them.
Turnouts will be lower. There’s a far heightened chance of weather conditions having a major influence (or in winter even jeopardising the election itself).
They’re just all round bad ideas, unless absolutely unavoidable.0 -
Mark Francois. Sammy Wilson. Kenneth Clarke. Steve Baker to the AYE lobby!TGOHF2 said:0 -
He is accusing MPs who do not offer him support of colluding with and surrendering to hostile foreign powers. He is stoking conflict.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?SouthamObserver said:
In which case he is a psychopath.Byronic said:
I can assure you he genuinely thinks that.SouthamObserver said:
If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
He's trying to avoid that outcome.
1 -
Worried much?Gallowgate said:0 -
So if the EU reject deals that can pass the commons - what on earth is the point of an extension.....0
-
Yes hard to scare people of a Corbyn government , with polls like that.Gallowgate said:
Labour on 21% there is no danger of a Corbyn Government.TheKitchenCabinet said:
The Lib Dems problem will be, if had to guess, in Tory Remain seats in the SE. For many wealthy Remain Tories, there is too much risk that the election could bring about a Corbyn Government and all that entails. I think the Lib Dems will do extremely well in wealthy urban constituencies that Labour hold (think Sheffield Hallam / Manchester Withington types) but will do worse than expected in the SE.Brom said:
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:
You could scare leavers with a possible Swinson revoke government.0 -
Ken Clarke voted for May's deal. And, in the indicative votes, proposed a soft deal that very nearly won majority support. It is in no sense news, except to Johnson Kool-Aid imbibers who believe anyone who isn't with them is an evil Remainiac in league with sinister foreign powers, that Clarke is in favour of a reasonable deal but passionately against leaving with nothing.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Additionally, I think the heavy implication of Clarke's quote was "If Boris gets a deal (that appreciably differs from May's deal), I will ride a flying sow through the ayes lobby".0 -
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
0 -
No but having the proposal framed as a deal is designed to "put pressure" on the EU and already the willing idiots on here are saying if the EU refuses it's because they want no deal.Gallowgate said:
Good move by Team Boris to create this we're all aboard narrative with the EU now as the obstruction.
I think the Cons rebels will wait until they see an EU response before they act (or have they already opined?).0 -
Foster is safe I think, Torbay is particularly leavy amongst SW constituencies though.MarqueeMark said:
And the SW.TheKitchenCabinet said:
The Lib Dems problem will be, if had to guess, in Tory Remain seats in the SE. For many wealthy Remain Tories, there is too much risk that the election could bring about a Corbyn Government and all that entails. I think the Lib Dems will do extremely well in wealthy urban constituencies that Labour hold (think Sheffield Hallam / Manchester Withington types) but will do worse than expected in the SE.Brom said:
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:
St Ives, Devon North, Cornwall North the first targets on the SW peninsula.0 -
Well opponents will not be able to say that when the policy is down in black and white.noneoftheabove said:So if that is to be the policy - which could gain support - why on earth allow your opponents an open goal to conflate it with the illegal asset stealing that was clearly in the conference motion?
It is just poor leadership, communication and planning, which results in progressive politics being marginalised not enhanced. Not all leaders of the left would be so stupid.
But, yes, I agree we could have done without some of the conference virtue-signalling. Not just on private schools, there are a few areas where the actual policy will be considerably milder than the rhetoric in the motions.
OTOH you have to let conference express themselves a bit. And it can have the effect of making some quite radical policy look moderate by comparison. Overton window.0 -
There's a big difference between "let's all have a nice calm resolution to this" and "nice parliamentary democracy you have there... shame if anything happened to it".SouthamObserver said:
He is accusing MPs who do not offer him support of colluding with and surrendering to hostile foreign powers. He is stoking conflict.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?SouthamObserver said:
In which case he is a psychopath.Byronic said:
I can assure you he genuinely thinks that.SouthamObserver said:
If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
He's trying to avoid that outcome.
Con Dom Cummings is very much pushing the latter line, whilst his supporters are claiming it's the former. It's just more gaslighting. We've seen it all before.0 -
If the plan is to have an election, why does it matter what the current Commons thinks?TGOHF2 said:So if the EU reject deals that can pass the commons - what on earth is the point of an extension.....
0 -
Life and antisemitism is not that simple. Criticising specific actions by Israel can still be antisemitic if, for instance, a Nazi analogy is used, or if other states are given a free pass on the same issue, or if the whole of Israel is blamed collectively for the actions of any component part.eristdoof said:
Criticising specific policies and actions by Israel (the country) is not Antisemitic. Crying racism to censor the views of opponents is in itself indirectly racist.Theuniondivvie said:
At the risk of setting off the antisemitism screechers, it is also the tactic of the IDF on the Gaza border. No doubt that's what put the idea into Trump's big, empty, orange head.eristdoof said:
Those were the tactics of the DDR at the Berlin wall and the German/German border. It doesn't matter whether people are trying to get in or out, either way it's abhorrent.rottenborough said:0 -
You don't often see the words "pizza wheel of doom" on the Sky News Breaking News ticker.1
-
There are several things the UK could have done between March and now (or could do between now and a further extension end date).TGOHF2 said:So if the EU reject deals that can pass the commons - what on earth is the point of an extension.....
One is to go for a wholly different type of Brexit such as an EFTA deal.
Another is to break the Commons impasse on May's deal by knocking heads together or, perhaps more likely, arranging a confirmatory referendum.
Another is to cancel Brexit.
What we've instead chosen to do is to stand there and demand that the EU do something they've always explicitly said they wouldn't do.0 -
The EU have 3 rules: honour the good friday agreement, no back door into / blurring of the SM, make any deal legally binding. That is it.Byronic said:The EU has some serious questions to answer. If they refuse to budge an iota, then they will be largely responsible, at least in perception, for the two possible outcomes.
Either Britain will no deal, with all the grief and chaos that comes with it, or Britain will remain in the EU - a roiled, embittered, dangerously divided and resentful country, just itching to have another go and leave, once again.
Both of those are severely dystopian. So the EU needs to wise up, and compromise. Now.
The UK has many more red lines including no EU judges, no FOM, to be able to make our own regulations and low friction trade. The UK government is the one with pie in the sky hopes, it needs to move.
We can have practically frictionless trade, if that is the priority, by staying in the SM or CU and going for Norway plus, the main kind of deal actually advocated during the referendum campaign.
If we want out of all things, but want to honour the GFA, we can have a border in the Irish Sea.
If that's a step too far, because we want NI to have the same rules as the UK, we could just unilaterally adopt all EU law and say we will do so forever. Is that good? No. But that is where we are.
The position seems to be "The UK shouldn't have to throw NI under the bus (by having preferential trade arrangements with the EU), the EU should throw RoI under the bus instead (by basically putting it back under the aegis of the UK rather than the EU)".0 -
Is there pineapple on it?solarflare said:You don't often see the words "pizza wheel of doom" on the Sky News Breaking News ticker.
0 -
... just not any ACTUAL deal.noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
0 -
What rubbish. He voted, repeatedly, for the ACTUAL deal on offer.logical_song said:
... just not any ACTUAL deal.noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
1 -
Devon North having to bed in a new candidate. But the legacy of their previous one will be toxic.....Pulpstar said:
Foster is safe I think, Torbay is particularly leavy amongst SW constituencies though.MarqueeMark said:
And the SW.TheKitchenCabinet said:
The Lib Dems problem will be, if had to guess, in Tory Remain seats in the SE. For many wealthy Remain Tories, there is too much risk that the election could bring about a Corbyn Government and all that entails. I think the Lib Dems will do extremely well in wealthy urban constituencies that Labour hold (think Sheffield Hallam / Manchester Withington types) but will do worse than expected in the SE.Brom said:
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:
St Ives, Devon North, Cornwall North the first targets on the SW peninsula.0 -
To be fair, that's not all we've done.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There are several things the UK could have done between March and now (or could do between now and a further extension end date).TGOHF2 said:So if the EU reject deals that can pass the commons - what on earth is the point of an extension.....
One is to go for a wholly different type of Brexit such as an EFTA deal.
Another is to break the Commons impasse on May's deal by knocking heads together or, perhaps more likely, arranging a confirmatory referendum.
Another is to cancel Brexit.
What we've instead chosen to do is to stand there and demand that the EU do something they've always explicitly said they wouldn't do.
We've also installed Gropey McRacist in Downing Street.1 -
Yep - there is no point to another extension if it just means crashing out three months later. We might as well get on with it. Johnson has told us that the UK will manage No Deal easily, so everything should basically carry on as is anyway, except people and businesses will have less freedom than they do now and the government will be dependent on the goodwill of third parties to keep trade flowing, planes in the air and so on.Cyclefree said:
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
0 -
Yesterday we were hearing from the PB Brexiters that promising to leave with a deal actually meant leaving without a deal.Cyclefree said:
What rubbish. He voted, repeatedly, for the ACTUAL deal on offer.logical_song said:
... just not any ACTUAL deal.noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
0 -
The majority of people in Northern Ireland voted to Remaion and now want the backstop. They are being thrown under a bus, too. The Johnson government has made clear that it is prioritising the interests of the DUP minority over the nationalist and non-aligned majority.148grss said:
The EU have 3 rules: honour the good friday agreement, no back door into / blurring of the SM, make any deal legally binding. That is it.Byronic said:The EU has some serious questions to answer. If they refuse to budge an iota, then they will be largely responsible, at least in perception, for the two possible outcomes.
Either Britain will no deal, with all the grief and chaos that comes with it, or Britain will remain in the EU - a roiled, embittered, dangerously divided and resentful country, just itching to have another go and leave, once again.
Both of those are severely dystopian. So the EU needs to wise up, and compromise. Now.
The UK has many more red lines including no EU judges, no FOM, to be able to make our own regulations and low friction trade. The UK government is the one with pie in the sky hopes, it needs to move.
We can have practically frictionless trade, if that is the priority, by staying in the SM or CU and going for Norway plus, the main kind of deal actually advocated during the referendum campaign.
If we want out of all things, but want to honour the GFA, we can have a border in the Irish Sea.
If that's a step too far, because we want NI to have the same rules as the UK, we could just unilaterally adopt all EU law and say we will do so forever. Is that good? No. But that is where we are.
The position seems to be "The UK shouldn't have to throw NI under the bus (by having preferential trade arrangements with the EU), the EU should throw RoI under the bus instead (by basically putting it back under the aegis of the UK rather than the EU)".
0 -
Yes he voted for Mays deal. His view is pretty much the same as mine. Given the alternative options we should leave with any plausible deal, and that no deal is the worst outcome.logical_song said:
... just not any ACTUAL deal.noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
0 -
Seriously, anyone defending this, I will demand have to accept all and every left wing policy under a Labour led government for fear of lefties going on a rampage if everything isn't renationalised.eristdoof said:
Project fear!Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
I thought the position was not to negotiate with terrorists, not "give them everything they want". And terrorism, whilst ill defined, is the attempt to use violence for a political or policy end. Some terrorism is arguably justifiable (Nelson Mandela was a terrorist and history seems to have said that was okay) but I think most people wouldn't argue that is the case here. So any Brexiter advocating, condoning, or excusing this violence is, by definition, defending terrorism.1 -
Despite what you say the official figures out this week show a decline in alcohol consumption over the period. You can whine all you like the official statistics prove you wrong.TGOHF2 said:
Strong ciders had a tax anomaly- the price of them has rocketed due to minimum unit pricing.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is booze then a Giffen good in economic parlance (demand goes up instead of down when the price rises) and why is cider the exception?TGOHF2 said:No of alcohol units sold via off trade has risen since minimum pricing. https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vkEzz1Y4Jtk/XYzVXxddaPI/AAAAAAAAHCw/lqjC6od65I05-94Og6wh7b6dwszFPJyaQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/8D8F6F42-1FCF-4C50-A701-0E3790CC5A50.jpeg
So hard drinkers have switched..0 -
Quite. If anything the populace of NI agree more with the position of the EU than that of the UK government...SouthamObserver said:
The majority of people in Northern Ireland voted to Remaion and now want the backstop. They are being thrown under a bus, too. The Johnson government has made clear that it is prioritising the interests of the DUP minority over the nationalist and non-aligned majority.148grss said:
The EU have 3 rules: honour the good friday agreement, no back door into / blurring of the SM, make any deal legally binding. That is it.Byronic said:The EU has some serious questions to answer. If they refuse to budge an iota, then they will be largely responsible, at least in perception, for the two possible outcomes.
Either Britain will no deal, with all the grief and chaos that comes with it, or Britain will remain in the EU - a roiled, embittered, dangerously divided and resentful country, just itching to have another go and leave, once again.
Both of those are severely dystopian. So the EU needs to wise up, and compromise. Now.
The UK has many more red lines including no EU judges, no FOM, to be able to make our own regulations and low friction trade. The UK government is the one with pie in the sky hopes, it needs to move.
We can have practically frictionless trade, if that is the priority, by staying in the SM or CU and going for Norway plus, the main kind of deal actually advocated during the referendum campaign.
If we want out of all things, but want to honour the GFA, we can have a border in the Irish Sea.
If that's a step too far, because we want NI to have the same rules as the UK, we could just unilaterally adopt all EU law and say we will do so forever. Is that good? No. But that is where we are.
The position seems to be "The UK shouldn't have to throw NI under the bus (by having preferential trade arrangements with the EU), the EU should throw RoI under the bus instead (by basically putting it back under the aegis of the UK rather than the EU)".0 -
Labour conference bounce....oh....Wulfrun_Phil said:0 -
Neither you nor I believe that everything will carry on as now if there is No Deal. It is utter nonsense. It won’t be catastrophe on Day 1 or Day 10 or whatever. But it will be more complicated and messy than we expect; there will be unknown unknowns and we will have lost a huge amount of goodwill.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - there is no point to another extension if it just means crashing out three months later. We might as well get on with it. Johnson has told us that the UK will manage No Deal easily, so everything should basically carry on as is anyway, except people and businesses will have less freedom than they do now and the government will be dependent on the goodwill of third parties to keep trade flowing, planes in the air and so on.Cyclefree said:
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
And all because a section of one party has fetishised a date and the personal ambitions of one man over everything else.0 -
ForCyclefree said:
What rubbish. He voted, repeatedly, for the ACTUAL deal on offer.logical_song said:
... just not any ACTUAL deal.noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Common Market 2.0: Remaining in the European single market and seeking a temporary customs union with the EU (Nick Boles' proposal - 188 for, 283 against)
For
Customs union: Seeking a UK-wide customs union with the EU (Ken Clarke's proposal - 264 for, 272 against)
For
Labour's alternative plan: Negotiating changes to the withdrawal agreement so that it includes protections to workers' rights, a permanent customs union, and close alignment to the single market (Jeremy Corbyn's proposal - 237 for, 307 against)
For MV1, 2 & 3
He's probably the only MP in the entire chamber that hasn't blindly voted along party or ideological lines and has always voted in the interests of thinking "What would be a potentially good way forward from here"2 -
Absolutely.148grss said:
Seriously, anyone defending this, I will demand have to accept all and every left wing policy under a Labour led government for fear of lefties going on a rampage if everything isn't renationalised.eristdoof said:
Project fear!Byronic said:THERE WILL BE BLOOD
From the FT
“Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.
“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “
That’s where we are.
I thought the position was not to negotiate with terrorists, not "give them everything they want". And terrorism, whilst ill defined, is the attempt to use violence for a political or policy end. Some terrorism is arguably justifiable (Nelson Mandela was a terrorist and history seems to have said that was okay) but I think most people wouldn't argue that is the case here. So any Brexiter advocating, condoning, or excusing this violence is, by definition, defending terrorism.0 -
Boris speech is very flat.0
-
Not long now til Raab Abbott. Heavyweight reunification contest we've all been waiting for.0
-
To be fair I can see why Boris feels it important to pay homage to Macrons leave date. After all, France is likely to be far more powerful than us after Brexit so we should suck up to Macron as much as Boris is willing to do so.Cyclefree said:
Neither you nor I believe that everything will carry on as now if there is No Deal. It is utter nonsense. It won’t be catastrophe on Day 1 or Day 10 or whatever. But it will be more complicated and messy than we expect; there will be unknown unknowns and we will have lost a huge amount of goodwill.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - there is no point to another extension if it just means crashing out three months later. We might as well get on with it. Johnson has told us that the UK will manage No Deal easily, so everything should basically carry on as is anyway, except people and businesses will have less freedom than they do now and the government will be dependent on the goodwill of third parties to keep trade flowing, planes in the air and so on.Cyclefree said:
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
And all because a section of one party has fetishised a date and the personal ambitions of one man over everything else.0 -
0
-
The Prime Minister clearly isn't prepared to do a deal except on his own terms, so we may as well No Deal at the end of the month. He has told us repeatedly that everything will be fine. He should have the opportunity to deliver a pain free No Deal in the run-up to Christmas.Cyclefree said:
Neither you nor I believe that everything will carry on as now if there is No Deal. It is utter nonsense. It won’t be catastrophe on Day 1 or Day 10 or whatever. But it will be more complicated and messy than we expect; there will be unknown unknowns and we will have lost a huge amount of goodwill.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - there is no point to another extension if it just means crashing out three months later. We might as well get on with it. Johnson has told us that the UK will manage No Deal easily, so everything should basically carry on as is anyway, except people and businesses will have less freedom than they do now and the government will be dependent on the goodwill of third parties to keep trade flowing, planes in the air and so on.Cyclefree said:
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
And all because a section of one party has fetishised a date and the personal ambitions of one man over everything else.
0 -
I think the opposition and rebel Tory MPs need to start thinking about a longer game. At the moment everything is focused, not surprisingly, on the very short term. However, for both Boris and his opponents/critics, there's no merit in winning the short-term and then losing everything a few months later.
To sum up the objectives of the various players:
Boris: Do-or-die on October 31st, then hold a GE when he'll be rewarded by a grateful country that he got Brexit done. He'll want to do this as soon as possible, to take advantage of his current honeymoon period and before the disaster of No Deal hits home (I think we can dismiss the possibility of us leaving on do-or-die date with a deal, there just isn't time even if he were trying seriously).
Tory rebels: Avoid No Deal at almost any cost short of a Corbyn government.
Independents and defectors: Same as Tory rebels, and preferably avoid Brexit altogether.
LibDems: Avoid Brexit altogether, harvest the votes of moderate ex-Tories and moderate ex-Labour voters
Labour: Blame everything on the Tories, don't have an election too soon given the polling, hope that something turns up to make a Labour victory more likely. Oh, and for most of the party (but not the leadership), avoid No Deal at all costs, preferably avoid Brexit altogether.
Getting an extension of a few months during which an election is held doesn't really suit anyone, except perhaps Boris is he can avoid the flak from not meeting his do-or-die pledge. It doesn't suit those who genuinely want to avoid No Deal because there's a very substantial risk that Boris would do well enough to crash us out soon after the election anyway. It's hard to see why opposition parties would want to enable him to do this and to have 5 years of a Boris majority government.
Holding a referendum, against Tory wishes, is a very bad idea: it would simply lead to a boycott and cries of Foul! If it resulted in a Remain vote, the Conservative Party would then probably win a GE on a platform of re-Brexiting.
Where does this lead? To repeated applications of the Benn Act, leaving Boris impotent and helpless, unable to 'get Brexit done' and unable to do anything much else, so that his support leeches away as Farage lays into him more and more, It needs time to weaken him. And, who knows, perhaps Labour might even make itself electable if they can string it out long enough?0 -
Will you PLEASE stop LOLing at me. This is serious business.TOPPING said:No shit sherlock. Do you really think there is a broad appetite in the UK for a "Labour leader coming from the radical left"?
LOL x2
I'm saying that IMO there is NOT an appetite for this. And that this is the main electoral issue, the politics of Corbyn not Corbyn.
I hear so much about Labour's electoral problem being CORBYN CORBYN CORBYN but I don't buy that.
I wish it was, actually, because that would be easy to fix.1 -
No one is going to believe the poll figures given what happened in 2017. People will see it as too big a risk.Gallowgate said:
Labour on 21% there is no danger of a Corbyn Government.TheKitchenCabinet said:
The Lib Dems problem will be, if had to guess, in Tory Remain seats in the SE. For many wealthy Remain Tories, there is too much risk that the election could bring about a Corbyn Government and all that entails. I think the Lib Dems will do extremely well in wealthy urban constituencies that Labour hold (think Sheffield Hallam / Manchester Withington types) but will do worse than expected in the SE.Brom said:
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!williamglenn said:
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.Brom said:
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!Byronic said:0 -
We have missed out on a potentially great PM. Puts todays generation of politicians to shame.Pulpstar said:
ForCyclefree said:
What rubbish. He voted, repeatedly, for the ACTUAL deal on offer.logical_song said:
... just not any ACTUAL deal.noneoftheabove said:
He has always said we should leave with a deal!TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Common Market 2.0: Remaining in the European single market and seeking a temporary customs union with the EU (Nick Boles' proposal - 188 for, 283 against)
For
Customs union: Seeking a UK-wide customs union with the EU (Ken Clarke's proposal - 264 for, 272 against)
For
Labour's alternative plan: Negotiating changes to the withdrawal agreement so that it includes protections to workers' rights, a permanent customs union, and close alignment to the single market (Jeremy Corbyn's proposal - 237 for, 307 against)
For MV1, 2 & 3
He's probably the only MP in the entire chamber that hasn't blindly voted along party or ideological lines and has always voted in the interests of thinking "What would be a potentially good way forward from here"0 -
Your "if" is key there, though. An extension MIGHT be a deferral of a No Deal Brexit, but it may also end up in cancellation, a change of tack to a soft Brexit deal, or acceptance of essentially what May negotiated (maybe with trivial, face-saving tweaks).SouthamObserver said:
Yep - there is no point to another extension if it just means crashing out three months later.Cyclefree said:
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
ERG types have always grossly overestimated the damage to the EU of No Deal (to hear them speak, BMW would go bankrupt and there'd be no alternative market for prosecco). But they are right it isn't an ideal scenario for the EU - there would be costs to them. In the game of chicken example, where hard Brexiteers ludicrously believe we and the EU both possess comparable vehicles whereas in fact we have a Reliant Robin and they have a juggernaut, they'd still rather not sustain a dent to the bumper of their nice shiny juggernaut.0 -
LOLkinabalu said:
Will you PLEASE stop LOLing at me. This is serious business.TOPPING said:No shit sherlock. Do you really think there is a broad appetite in the UK for a "Labour leader coming from the radical left"?
LOL x2
I'm saying that IMO there is NOT an appetite for this. And that this is the main electoral issue, the politics of Corbyn not Corbyn.
I hear so much about Labour's electoral problem being CORBYN CORBYN CORBYN but I don't buy that.
I wish it was, actually, because that would be easy to fix.
Ahem.
Ah I see - your post could be read, Escher-like, as saying that Corbyn is great and the people just don't appreciate a hard left leader of the labour party rather than the entire problem of the Labour Party is that they have a hard left leader and that happens to be Corbyn.0 -
If we had gone Norway this would all be sorted now and we could be moving on.148grss said:0 -
The trouble is that with social media and microtargeted messages, opponents *will* be able to say that, even though "the policy is down in black and white". CCHQ will send the more outlandish quotes to posh voters with young children. Unless one of the recipients works for the Labour Party's spin team, it will not be noticed, let alone rebutted.kinabalu said:
Well opponents will not be able to say that when the policy is down in black and white.noneoftheabove said:So if that is to be the policy - which could gain support - why on earth allow your opponents an open goal to conflate it with the illegal asset stealing that was clearly in the conference motion?
It is just poor leadership, communication and planning, which results in progressive politics being marginalised not enhanced. Not all leaders of the left would be so stupid.
But, yes, I agree we could have done without some of the conference virtue-signalling. Not just on private schools, there are a few areas where the actual policy will be considerably milder than the rhetoric in the motions.
OTOH you have to let conference express themselves a bit. And it can have the effect of making some quite radical policy look moderate by comparison. Overton window.
1 -
If so many potential Labour voters keep telling you what the problem is, and it is easy to fix, might there not be a solution available worth trying?kinabalu said:
Will you PLEASE stop LOLing at me. This is serious business.TOPPING said:No shit sherlock. Do you really think there is a broad appetite in the UK for a "Labour leader coming from the radical left"?
LOL x2
I'm saying that IMO there is NOT an appetite for this. And that this is the main electoral issue, the politics of Corbyn not Corbyn.
I hear so much about Labour's electoral problem being CORBYN CORBYN CORBYN but I don't buy that.
I wish it was, actually, because that would be easy to fix.0 -
It might be worthwhile looking at things from a global view. Both the US and Germany had shockingly bad PMI figures. Now Merkel may be committed to the EU project but the last thing Trump needs coming into the 2020 election is one of the US' major trading partners and a top 5 world economy crashing economically and so pulling down US GDP and (don't forget this because it is important to many Americans) the share prices of many US companies. If we have a no deal Brexit, Trump will use every trick in the book to make sure there is no crash here. For his own benefit, not ours.SouthamObserver said:
The Prime Minister clearly isn't prepared to do a deal except on his own terms, so we may as well No Deal at the end of the month. He has told us repeatedly that everything will be fine. He should have the opportunity to deliver a pain free No Deal in the run-up to Christmas.Cyclefree said:
Neither you nor I believe that everything will carry on as now if there is No Deal. It is utter nonsense. It won’t be catastrophe on Day 1 or Day 10 or whatever. But it will be more complicated and messy than we expect; there will be unknown unknowns and we will have lost a huge amount of goodwill.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - there is no point to another extension if it just means crashing out three months later. We might as well get on with it. Johnson has told us that the UK will manage No Deal easily, so everything should basically carry on as is anyway, except people and businesses will have less freedom than they do now and the government will be dependent on the goodwill of third parties to keep trade flowing, planes in the air and so on.Cyclefree said:
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
And all because a section of one party has fetishised a date and the personal ambitions of one man over everything else.0 -
It does seem that there are moves from all sides to support the deal that Boris brings back.TGOHF2 said:
If the ERG back it, Tories generally back it, most of the ex-Tories return to the fold plus the Labour leavers it must be very close to having the numbers.
0 -
Even by boris standards, this is rambling incoherence.0
-
GET BREXIT DONE has some fun anagrams.
EXTORTED BINGE, anyone?2 -
Some people like Mr Green just don't want any kind of deal and want the world to burn. Fair play to those at least trying to find a workable solution.148grss said:0 -
There isn't a deal that Johnson can agree with the EU that will not lead to cries of betrayal from the ERG and the BXP. The only way to avoid a No Deal in three months' time is if there is a change of government. But as previously discussed, unless there is an election in November, there is no chance of that happening - and even if there were an election the most likely outcome is a Tory majority, followed by a hung Parliament. No Deal is coming. It's just a matter of when. Given that, the sooner the better IMO, both for the UK and the EU.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Your "if" is key there, though. An extension MIGHT be a deferral of a No Deal Brexit, but it may also end up in cancellation, a change of tack to a soft Brexit deal, or acceptance of essentially what May negotiated (maybe with trivial, face-saving tweaks).SouthamObserver said:
Yep - there is no point to another extension if it just means crashing out three months later.Cyclefree said:
Ken Clarke, like Stewart and Gauke and others, has consistently voted for a deal re our withdrawal, unlike the PM and others in his Cabinet.TGOHF2 said:
Will the spartan remainers now desert their hero ?MarqueeMark said:Ken Clark on R5: "If Boris gets a deal, I will vote for it."
Let’s see whether Boris actually gets a deal.
If he doesn’t I think we will crash out on 31 October. I don’t see why the EU would grant another extension. Let Britain learn the reality of what it means to be a third country and then, maybe, just maybe, there can be some sensible discussions about the future.
A great pity for all those who will suffer as a result but Boris and the Tories who support him don’t care about them. Their whole policy has been about saving their face and to hell with the country’s best interests.
ERG types have always grossly overestimated the damage to the EU of No Deal (to hear them speak, BMW would go bankrupt and there'd be no alternative market for prosecco). But they are right it isn't an ideal scenario for the EU - there would be costs to them. In the game of chicken example, where hard Brexiteers ludicrously believe we and the EU both possess comparable vehicles whereas in fact we have a Reliant Robin and they have a juggernaut, they'd still rather not sustain a dent to the bumper of their nice shiny juggernaut.
0 -
Seems to have got vaguely lost in some stuff about buses again.FrancisUrquhart said:Even by boris standards, this is rambling incoherence.
0 -
Lunch out of the fridge. Switched on Johnson's speech. I've watched 30.seconds. Oh, dear.
There used to be a hint of method in his madness.0 -
I'm not sure that's quite true for the Lib Dems. To remain relevant, Brexit must remain a threat. So they need an election at a time when it has not happened, but for it potentially still to happen.Richard_Nabavi said:I think the opposition and rebel Tory MPs need to start thinking about a longer game. At the moment everything is focused, not surprisingly, on the very short term. However, for both Boris and his opponents/critics, there's no merit in winning the short-term and then losing everything a few months later.
To sum up the objectives of the various players:
Boris: Do-or-die on October 31st, then hold a GE when he'll be rewarded by a grateful country that he got Brexit done. He'll want to do this as soon as possible, to take advantage of his current honeymoon period and before the disaster of No Deal hits home (I think we can dismiss the possibility of us leaving on do-or-die date with a deal, there just isn't time even if he were trying seriously).
Tory rebels: Avoid No Deal at almost any cost short of a Corbyn government.
Independents and defectors: Same as Tory rebels, and preferably avoid Brexit altogether.
LibDems: Avoid Brexit altogether, harvest the votes of moderate ex-Tories and moderate ex-Labour voters
Labour: Blame everything on the Tories, don't have an election too soon given the polling, hope that something turns up to make a Labour victory more likely. Oh, and for most of the party (but not the leadership), avoid No Deal at all costs, preferably avoid Brexit altogether.
Getting an extension of a few months during which an election is held doesn't really suit anyone, except perhaps Boris is he can avoid the flak from not meeting his do-or-die pledge. It doesn't suit those who genuinely want to avoid No Deal because there's a very substantial risk that Boris would do well enough to crash us out soon after the election anyway. It's hard to see why opposition parties would want to enable him to do this and to have 5 years of a Boris majority government.
Holding a referendum, against Tory wishes, is a very bad idea: it would simply lead to a boycott and cries of Foul! If it resulted in a Remain vote, the Conservative Party would then probably win a GE on a platform of re-Brexiting.
Where does this lead? To repeated applications of the Benn Act, leaving Boris impotent and helpless, unable to 'get Brexit done' and unable to do anything much else, so that his support leeches away as Farage lays into him more and more, It needs time to weaken him. And, who knows, perhaps Labour might even make itself electable if they can string it out long enough?0 -
The withdrawal agreement does not preclude transition to a Norway arrangement. The main obstacle to "Norway" is that it is too hard with customs infrastructure on the island of Ireland.rottenborough said:
If we had gone Norway this would all be sorted now and we could be moving on.148grss said:0
