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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?
Almost three years ago, a few days after Trump was elected, I wrote a thread on this site saying that
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Repeatedly more than any thing else, I've heard comments about how dull and boring Brexit is and aren't the people who care so much to protest strange
It's my strong suspicion that Brexit isn't going to be the deciding factor as to which way many normal people vote at a forthcoming election as many political anoraks on here seem to imagine.
I'm not expecting areas with strong historical reluctance to voting Tory suddenly changing, Brexit simply isn't the top major issue for many people who have real normal lives with other greater concerns as they see them.
The problem is that people are much more sceptical nowadays and willing to dismiss as ‘fake’ findings that would have been treated as conclusive in earlier decades.
The Dem analysis seems to be that, even if it fails (as appears likely), the saga will hit Trump sufficiently with the independents to reduce his chance of re-election. Meanwhile there is talk of someone taking him on kamikaze through the republican primaries with the same object in mind.
- a pre-Oct 31 election?
- a NI referendum?
- declaring war on Iran?
- sending troops to occupy Scotland?
It’s just that I am losing track.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0g33aqxx5k/TheTimes_190925_VI_w.pdf
"No evidence has yet come to light that Trump obstructed justice"
In terms of the phone call, right. But there is ample evidence in the Mueller Report that he did.
That is to say, my crowd of friends barely talk about politics, hence I talk about it on here, but the only political issue they do talk about is Brexit
What have you done to your ass by the way?
People's ability to rationalise things as okay if someone on their side does something is tremendous, and we have become very much more divided into sides since the time of Nixon and Watergate. This makes the comparisons with the way in which public opinion changed during Watergate pointless. We live in a different time.
In a similar vein, I've been listening to Rory Stewart talk about seriousness, and why he isn't joining the Lib Dems, and it's challenging me to rethink my support for the Lib Dem policy of revoke. I still think that the policy is right in an abstract intellectual way: holding the referendum when the government opposed the change proposed was wrong, revoking would correct that mistake, winning a majority for that policy would provide a mandate for it.
I'm no longer sure that being right in an abstract way is good enough. There is a hysteresis which means that now that something has been done it cannot be simply undone. Even though the referendum was wrongheaded, perhaps we do have to see it through, in as reasonable and consensual a way as possible. I just don't know.
There’s no chance of Rep Senators voting for that . This is more about using that against them in the next election .
The Rep are defending 23 seats v the Dems who are defending just 12.
It would be helpful if you could distinguish between the two in future pronouncements.
Thanks.
Just take a step back and look at the massive changes in public support during this Parliament and compare it to the much more modest changes in public support during the 2001-5 Parliament. I bet everyone in the country could tell you the cause of the difference.
You just never know what might turn up . What if there’s snow or some storm , this could really effect turnout in some areas .
(Wikipedia, I know, but the summary seems fair)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservatism#Characteristics_of_conservatism_in_France,_Italy,_Russia,_Poland,_United_Kingdom,_United_States,_and_Israel
Trump certainly ticks some of those boxes, but misses on an alarming (for conservatives) number of them. It's fair to say he is a semidetatched conservative.
Anyone with interests beyond that is in the minority " selectorate ". Even contacting your local councillor about the Bins/Planning/Pot holes puts you into the elite activist catergory.
In retrospect it's why the Leave campaign was so lethal and a work of genius.
The first Senate firewall is actually Senate majority leader McConnell - he might give any vote to impeach the Merrick Garland treatment, and simply refuse to bring it to trial in the Senate. What happens then is unclear, since the Constitution. doesn’t state explicitly the Senate must do so, and precedent doesn’t provide much of a guide, either.
On 1st December 2016 the LibDems overturned a 23,000 Tory majority to elect Sarah Olney. We are waterproof and have torches. Bring it on!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Richmond_Park_by-election
But Trump? Oh come on! Trump's lousy disapproval rating at this stage in his presidency is the worst of any postwar president bar Carter, whose lousy rating he equals. Moreover that lousy rating is sticky - i.e. it has been remarkably stable whereas others had their peaks and troughs over time, so there's less chance of the volatility he needs to stage a recovery. If the Democrats somehow manage to cock up things in 2020 it will be in spite of Trump rather than because of him.
Exhibit A:
David Cameron’s Project Fear worked on the Scots.
David Cameron’s Project Fear failed with the English.
LD Evs
Con 7/4
Lab 3/1
Bxp 20/1
The LibDems took the Labour vote for granted and LibDem HQ sent a letter to all known Labour supporters dissing Corbyn. That alone probably cost the LibDems the extra 45 tactical Labour votes (out of 5,800 Labour votes) that were needed. The same mistakes won't be made again.
Trump also won 304 EC votes in 2016, the highest for any GOP candidate since Bush Snr in 1988 and Bush Snr failed to be re elected in 1992.
Of course my point relies on both Boris and Trump being re elected but I expect they will be (even now Trump actually has a higher approval rating than Obama had in 2011 before his re election)
If the House impeached and the Senate got a majority, but not the supermajority needed for conviction, would Trump run in 2020? Could it happen swiftly enough for the GOP to switch to Pence, and would they? He's 80/1 next POTUS, which seems like value for a guy with two ways of getting there.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/28/mitch-mcconnell-trump-impeachment-007689
One possible wrinkle is Congress voting to impeach both Trump and Pence. Is it possible there might be a handful of Republican Senators who might then fancy their chances for the nomination ? Seems unlikely, but we live in strange times.
Maybe the start of the football season is less interesting, but I've never heard so much chat about politics in an office before, and it's all about the Supreme Court, or votes in the Commons, Brexit all the time. The office is in a Remain part of Remain London, so no-one has broken cover to admit to supporting the damn thing, but I would be surprised if there weren't workplaces (or bridge clubs, or wherever it is that retired people congregate) where the talk often turns to politics, by which I mean Brexit, and their shared exasperation that we haven't left yet.
My experience is certainly not ManchesterKurt's experience.
Riveting stuff. Although he is a conservative (small c) he actually persuaded me to change my mind on the desirability of a written constitution and go instead for a piece meal improvement by legislation in parliament.
He is also in favour of proportional representation to encourage more participation in politics, more equality of votes and foster more collaboration in parliament. I didn't need persuading of that.
Excellent persuasive piece by Fishing. Well researched. Well done.
LibDem 14,117
Con 11,655
Lab 11,650
BXP 6,299
LD 1/10
Con 5/1
Lab 100/1
I see PaddyPower is offer 8/1 on Melania revealed to be living with another man during Trump's first term. So perhaps not Melania.
We need more Fishing. 🙂 just ideas for your knowledge and research skills: Which senate seats could change hands in the election? How is the electoral college shaping up if election tomorrow?
I'm on LibDems winning Richmond Park at 7/10 with Ladbrokes. That was placed some time ago.
On your chosen measure of approval, Trump is currently 0.1 ahead of where Obama was (at the very nadir of Obama's ratings), but 2.1 behind on disapproval and so 2.0 behind on net approval. He is at broadly the same level as Carter who lost badly and behind Bush Snr and Ford who were the others to lose. He is behind all the others who won. He is a liability.
A quick google suggests that the Labour MP, Stephen Morgan, has had some grief from local Momentum activists, no doubt entirely unconnected to his membership of Labour Friends of Israel. A resurgence here is certainly not out of the question for the Lib Dems.
EDIT - The Lib Dems also became the largest party on Portsmouth City Council in May 2019. Although local election results don't carry over exactly to general elections, it will mean they will have activists to campaign to convince people that they have a chance.
Really looking forward to it.
Trump's approval rating with Gallup is 43% at this stage, higher than the 41% for Obama at this stage of his presidency and far higher than the 33% Carter had at this stage of his presidency
https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_campaign=tiles
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/31/what-we-know-about-the-2010-ld-switchers-to-labour-the-voters-who-form-ed-milibands-firewall/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/01/labours-melting-firewall-almost-a-third-of-ld-switchers-have-since-left-since-2012/
4 Lib Dem councillors, 2 Labour, 1 Tory
Aggregate vote
Lib Dem 8,621
Labour 6,958
Tory 4,246
UKIP 2,585
Green 1,776