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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited March 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB drops 4 in new YouGov Euros poll putting CON to within 4 percent

Two worrying polls for LAB overnight. The latest YouGov GE 2015 poll has the gap down to 1% once again with LAB at 36% – it’s lowest for a long time.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    First!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,363
    Second!

    As will be either Labour, the Conservatives or UKIP.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Was that the last hope for Q1 level backers just gone ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The poor support of the BT campaign, the absence of any talking heads from Labour after the Eurodebate, the absence of any coherent response to the budget all speak to me of having noone at the controls at Labour head office. This is a party on autopilot.

    It sounds as if Nick and others are pounding the pavements, but I suspect that with the party largely backing the coalition budget, spending cap and benefits cap not with much enthusiasm.

    Complacency does not do it justice. The Euros are weeks away, and World cup and Indy ref will dominate most of the rest of the year. Not much time to build a campaign.
    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    foxinsoxuk said:

    The poor support of the BT campaign, the absence of any talking heads from Labour after the Eurodebate, the absence of any coherent response to the budget all speak to me of having noone at the controls at Labour head office. This is a party on autopilot.

    It sounds as if Nick and others are pounding the pavements, but I suspect that with the party largely backing the coalition budget, spending cap and benefits cap not with much enthusiasm.

    Complacency does not do it justice. The Euros are weeks away, and World cup and Indy ref will dominate most of the rest of the year. Not much time to build a campaign.


    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

    The Budget response (the immediate one) I thought was fair enough - the Loto doesn't get advance sight so the entire piece of theatre is a fiasco. But otherwise, I agree.

    There seems to be a vacuum up top for some reason, which is odd, because when they want to they can set the narrative - for example on energy prices.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    YouGov - Scottish Parliament voting intention

    Scottish Parliament constituency vote (FPTP)

    SNP 38% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Con 13% (-1)
    LD 7% (+2)

    Scottish Parliament regional list vote (AMS)

    Lab 33% (-2)
    SNP 33% (n/c)
    Con 13% (-1)
    Grn 7% (+1)
    LD 7% (+2)

    No statistically significant changes there. All MoE stuff.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Was that the last hope for Q1 level backers just gone ?

    My reading is that Monday night's poll should fall within Q1. Fieldwork will have been completed before the end of March although the technical publication day will be April 1st



  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

    Looks like Farage and Clegg won the debate and EdM lost. The millionaire on Primrose Hill doesn't know best.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    YouGov - Scottish Parliament voting intention

    Scottish Parliament constituency vote (FPTP)

    SNP 38% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Con 13% (-1)
    LD 7% (+2)

    Scottish Parliament regional list vote (AMS)

    Lab 33% (-2)
    SNP 33% (n/c)
    Con 13% (-1)
    Grn 7% (+1)
    LD 7% (+2)

    No statistically significant changes there. All MoE stuff.


    I'd love to meet the Scots who vote Labour in Westminster elections, SNP at Holyrood. There are a fair few about.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Pulpstar said:

    Was that the last hope for Q1 level backers just gone ?

    There's a poll on Sunday - at this rate Labour will be three points adrift by then!
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James - South Basildon and East Thurrock (Con maj = 5,772)

    Con 8/13
    Lab 6/5
    LD 50/1
    UKIP 66/1
    BNP 150/1
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    MH370

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg

    If there's debris then if you know the currents and how long the plane has been missing then you could guess where it went down which might provide a clue as to where it was going - if it was going anywhere and wasn't just a suicide / accident.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    foxinsoxuk said:

    The poor support of the BT campaign, the absence of any talking heads from Labour after the Eurodebate, the absence of any coherent response to the budget all speak to me of having noone at the controls at Labour head office. This is a party on autopilot.

    It sounds as if Nick and others are pounding the pavements, but I suspect that with the party largely backing the coalition budget, spending cap and benefits cap not with much enthusiasm.

    Complacency does not do it justice. The Euros are weeks away, and World cup and Indy ref will dominate most of the rest of the year. Not much time to build a campaign.


    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

    In fairness to Labour and indeed the Conservatives the Clegg/Farage debates are a no win situation for Ed and Dave. They don't want to give credence to them and so have to largely ignore them and take the hit that comes from their absence.

    One other factor that these two debates have ensured is that the GE debates will take place even if a single participant is absent then the media will empty chair that contender, a situation that with three debates in a general election campaign no party will possibly contemplate.

    As I've indicated before, the debate genie is permanently out of the bottle.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10727368/Only-one-person-is-laughing-at-the-Farage-Clegg-EU-pantomime.html
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Battersea (Con maj = 5,977)

    Con 4/6 (Lad)
    Lab 6/5 (SJ)
    LD 66/1 (SJ)
    UKIP 150/1 (SJ)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @‌another_richard FPT

    You seem to have changed your tune since your put up or shut up comment last night.

    Not at all.

    Millhouse Capital is a Russian fund, managed from Moscow and investing in Russia and the CIS. It's only connection to London is that one of its major backors lives in Chelsea. The football club, as an aside, IMHO is an insurance policy rather than anything to do with money laundering. By giving Abramovich a public profile in the UK it makes it very difficult for Russia to agitate for his return.

    As for Mr Jones's posts last night, I got home after a week of travel and chose to play with my daughter instead of replying to a paranoid conspiracy theorist. But since you ask:

    - 2 links about Standard Chartered and Iran. At worst these were technical failing (to do with scrubbing of wire information). It was also related to the New York branch not London. It was also a breach of OFAC regulations, not money laundering. Effectively - and was viewed as such at the time - as a shakedown by a politically ambitious junior regulator.

    - One link from the independent was basically a laundry list of different ways that people try to interpolate and layer fund. Nothing specifically to do with London.

    - One link drew very heavily on US based regulators and politicians who are doing their absolute best to damn London because it is New York's main rival.

    So no, no evidence to support his wild and extravagent claims.

    The reality is that London is a very international market. Over the last 20 years there has been a massive accumulation of wealth by oligarchs in emerging economies. A significant portion of this has flowed to London. Clearly this is an opportunity, but also one with risks: many of these individuals gained their wealth through cronyism rather than capitalism and many of them have different views about acceptable standards of behaviour. Clearly mistakes have also been made - ENRC or Bumi are obvious examples, but there are others as well.

    The short answer is the professionals and the regulators in the market need to be ever vigilant about the risks of money laundering. But in the main the banks are pretty good at this - the financial and repuations costs of getting it wrong are huge. Of course mistakes will be made, and there will be corrupt individuals. But the City is not some inquitious sink of depravity.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The EU elections are potentially more important for Labour to do well in than for the Conservatives. The Conservatives are braced for finishing third, so anything better than that will be treated as a success by that party, and third would probably be shrugged off after a bout of fifth columnism from the Cornerstone mob. Labour has been hoping and expecting to finish top, so if it fails to do so, it will be a real jolt.

    The most intriguing order would be UKIP top, Labour a close second and the Conservatives a close third (say 26%, 25%, 24%). It would be a fascinating insight into the relative discipline of the two main parties.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    JackW said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The poor support of the BT campaign, the absence of any talking heads from Labour after the Eurodebate, the absence of any coherent response to the budget all speak to me of having noone at the controls at Labour head office. This is a party on autopilot.

    It sounds as if Nick and others are pounding the pavements, but I suspect that with the party largely backing the coalition budget, spending cap and benefits cap not with much enthusiasm.

    Complacency does not do it justice. The Euros are weeks away, and World cup and Indy ref will dominate most of the rest of the year. Not much time to build a campaign.


    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

    In fairness to Labour and indeed the Conservatives the Clegg/Farage debates are a no win situation for Ed and Dave. They don't want to give credence to them and so have to largely ignore them and take the hit that comes from their absence.

    One other factor that these two debates have ensured is that the GE debates will take place even if a single participant is absent then the media will empty chair that contender, a situation that with three debates in a general election campaign no party will possibly contemplate.

    As I've indicated before, the debate genie is permanently out of the bottle.

    Miliband would get torn up in a debate which had Farage and Clegg on it. Thinking on his feet and responding without a script is not one of his strengths. He's not flexible enough, and always has to fall back to something pre-prepared, as we've seen time and time again in the house.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James - Bedford (Con maj = 1,353)

    Lab 4/7
    Con 5/4
    LD 25/1
    UKIP 200/1
    Grn 500/1
    BNP 500/1
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,363
    MrJones said:

    MH370

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg

    If there's debris then if you know the currents and how long the plane has been missing then you could guess where it went down which might provide a clue as to where it was going - if it was going anywhere and wasn't just a suicide / accident.

    Well, yes. But we don't have any confirmed debris yet. And it's sadly been so long since the crash, with many storms, that it will get spread. Large pieces in particular will be prone to wind and other effects.

    Even with debris found after a couple of days, it took investigators two years to find the wreckage of AF447.

    Your desire for a grand conspiracy theory is laughable, and your attempt to blame the pilot sickening.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James - Blackpool North and Cleveleys (Con maj = 2,150)

    Lab 1/2
    Con 6/4
    LD 50/1
    UKIP 250/1
    BNP 500/1
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Stuart_Dickson

    Whilst we considerably disagree on YES/NO , thank you for providing a continuing updated service on the GE constituency odds
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James - Brentford and Isleworth (Lab maj = 4,411)

    Lab 2/7
    Con 11/4
    LD 16/1
    UKIP 100/1
    Grn 500/1
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/the-polls-that-show-weve-all-misunderstood-the-political-impact-of-the-budget/

    Poll narrowing not down to oldiez ?!!

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    @Stuart_Dickson

    Whilst we considerably disagree on YES/NO , thank you for providing a continuing updated service on the GE constituency odds

    My pleasure.

    Note: Stan James have now reposted their Berwick-upon-Tweed prices. Not checked, but I think they have the best LD price at 6/4.

    Note: I think Berwick is the only seat to date with at least 3 bookies quoting prices (PP, SJ, Lad).
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James - Brigg and Goole (Con maj = 5,147)

    Con 4/7
    Lab 5/4
    LD 33/1
    UKIP 100/1
    BNP 500/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was that the last hope for Q1 level backers just gone ?

    There's a poll on Sunday - at this rate Labour will be three points adrift by then!
    'Pouter has had to carry those goalposts for a bloody long time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    @Stuart_Dickson

    Whilst we considerably disagree on YES/NO , thank you for providing a continuing updated service on the GE constituency odds

    My pleasure.

    Note: Stan James have now reposted their Berwick-upon-Tweed prices. Not checked, but I think they have the best LD price at 6/4.

    Note: I think Berwick is the only seat to date with at least 3 bookies quoting prices (PP, SJ, Lad).
    The 2-1 may well have been smashed into...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    TGOHF said:

    http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/the-polls-that-show-weve-all-misunderstood-the-political-impact-of-the-budget/

    Poll narrowing not down to oldiez ?!!

    He makes a good point. Sometimes it's not what you do, it's that you're seen as knowing what you're doing. Confidence is a funny thing.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Slackbladder said:

    JackW said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The poor support of the BT campaign, the absence of any talking heads from Labour after the Eurodebate, the absence of any coherent response to the budget all speak to me of having noone at the controls at Labour head office. This is a party on autopilot.

    It sounds as if Nick and others are pounding the pavements, but I suspect that with the party largely backing the coalition budget, spending cap and benefits cap not with much enthusiasm.

    Complacency does not do it justice. The Euros are weeks away, and World cup and Indy ref will dominate most of the rest of the year. Not much time to build a campaign.


    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

    In fairness to Labour and indeed the Conservatives the Clegg/Farage debates are a no win situation for Ed and Dave. They don't want to give credence to them and so have to largely ignore them and take the hit that comes from their absence.

    One other factor that these two debates have ensured is that the GE debates will take place even if a single participant is absent then the media will empty chair that contender, a situation that with three debates in a general election campaign no party will possibly contemplate.

    As I've indicated before, the debate genie is permanently out of the bottle.

    Miliband would get torn up in a debate which had Farage and Clegg on it. Thinking on his feet and responding without a script is not one of his strengths. He's not flexible enough, and always has to fall back to something pre-prepared, as we've seen time and time again in the house.
    I think there is some merit to that, although I'd caution against underestimating Miliband in three debates that largely are not directly confrontational. It's oft said of Ed that he can be charming and engaging in private which if transferred to a debate style is a winning formula.

    An underestimated Clegg together with Cameron performed well in 2010 and even a somewhat stiff Gordon improved over time. If Ed outperforms low expectations he will earn some momentum and the punters may decide to give him a second look.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Brighton Kemptown (Con maj = 1,328)

    Lab 4/7 (SJ)
    Con 5/2 (Lad)
    Grn 66/1 (SJ)
    LD 100/1 (Lad)
    UKIP 100/1
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Slackbladder said:

    JackW said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The poor support of the BT campaign, the absence of any talking heads from Labour after the Eurodebate, the absence of any coherent response to the budget all speak to me of having noone at the controls at Labour head office. This is a party on autopilot.

    It sounds as if Nick and others are pounding the pavements, but I suspect that with the party largely backing the coalition budget, spending cap and benefits cap not with much enthusiasm.

    Complacency does not do it justice. The Euros are weeks away, and World cup and Indy ref will dominate most of the rest of the year. Not much time to build a campaign.


    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

    In fairness to Labour and indeed the Conservatives the Clegg/Farage debates are a no win situation for Ed and Dave. They don't want to give credence to them and so have to largely ignore them and take the hit that comes from their absence.

    One other factor that these two debates have ensured is that the GE debates will take place even if a single participant is absent then the media will empty chair that contender, a situation that with three debates in a general election campaign no party will possibly contemplate.

    As I've indicated before, the debate genie is permanently out of the bottle.

    Miliband would get torn up in a debate which had Farage and Clegg on it. Thinking on his feet and responding without a script is not one of his strengths. He's not flexible enough, and always has to fall back to something pre-prepared, as we've seen time and time again in the house.
    Miliband must be genuinely frightened of the debates. I myself yield to nobody in my disdain for the dweeb - but imagine you know you are a dweeb, that you're unpopular and a geek and that you can't think on your feet. And now imagine having to do this live on telly and getting shredded by others who are good at this sort of thing and are out to pummel you. Being a politician must suck quite hard at times. Imagine, for example, how Kinnock felt after he blew it. He could have been PM but ended up as a joke - it must still cause him pain. Well now imagine how Redward is going to feel if he fails to become PM. It's the openest goal in political history. Unmissable. And yet....
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Brighton Pavillion also has 3 bookies quoting prices:

    Grn EVS
    Lab EVS
    Con 16/1 (PP)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    @‌monksfield Fpt
    No worries. In terms of Berwick, con are probably around or just shy of high water in terms of first choice support vs Beith, but I do expect an unwind of incumbency bonus and a drift from the Lib Dems to 'others' per polling decline. It doesn't appear to be ripe UKIP territory. The Lib Dems are up against it to retain IMHO, any waverers that 'held on for Beith' now how the chance to jump. Time will tell, and if the Tory share at GE is 34 it's neck and neck for me, any lower and Libs become favourite.
    I'm expecting the Tories to poll around their 2010 figure if that clarifies my position. Rural Northumberland is what ought to be prime Tory Territory, Berwick itself much less so.
    Re the Tory figure I'm quoting - turnout will be lower than 2010 I think and Labour will have a harder time getting their vote out as they are not 'in defence' - witness Hague 2001 vs Major 1997
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Hopefully we will get more 3 bookie seats.

    All the bookies seem to have differing opinions...

    @Stuart_Dickson Took a punt on your boys in Inverness last night. Also Fife NE looks interesting, I think the conservatives have higher than a 7% chance of taking the seat so 0.5 pts it is

    1 Pt SNP Win Inverness @ 4-1
    0.5 Pt Con Win Fife NE @ 16-1.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Disconcertingly, a bet I was considering has surprisingly long odds. Going to have to mull it over....
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James Bristol North West (Con maj = 3,274)

    Con 8/11
    Lab 11/10
    LD 16/1
    Grn 100/1
    UKIP 100/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Disconcertingly, a bet I was considering has surprisingly long odds. Going to have to mull it over....

    Which one ? Don't be worried about the market !
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    For those wanting to check best prices on constituencies (and other political bets), I commend this site:

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics

    It's not 100% reliable, because it doesn't always catch recent markets or recent price moves, but it's fairly close.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Pulpstar said:

    Hopefully we will get more 3 bookie seats.

    All the bookies seem to have differing opinions...

    @Stuart_Dickson Took a punt on your boys in Inverness last night. Also Fife NE looks interesting, I think the conservatives have higher than a 7% chance of taking the seat so 0.5 pts it is

    1 Pt SNP Win Inverness @ 4-1
    0.5 Pt Con Win Fife NE @ 16-1.

    Both look good to me. That CON 16/1 price in North East Fife just looks a bit daft. LD still FAV and SNP still the top challenger, but there is no way Shadsy should have priced CON that long.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    MH370

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg

    If there's debris then if you know the currents and how long the plane has been missing then you could guess where it went down which might provide a clue as to where it was going - if it was going anywhere and wasn't just a suicide / accident.

    Well, yes. But we don't have any confirmed debris yet. And it's sadly been so long since the crash, with many storms, that it will get spread. Large pieces in particular will be prone to wind and other effects.

    Even with debris found after a couple of days, it took investigators two years to find the wreckage of AF447.

    Your desire for a grand conspiracy theory is laughable, and your attempt to blame the pilot sickening.
    So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    antifrank said:

    For those wanting to check best prices on constituencies (and other political bets), I commend this site:

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics

    It's not 100% reliable, because it doesn't always catch recent markets or recent price moves, but it's fairly close.

    It is currently missing all Stan James constituency prices and a lot of Ladbrokes ones too. But the PP ones seem to all be there.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    edited March 2014
    Mr. Pulpstar, I will say when I post the pre-qualifying piece (and whether I actually backed it or not).

    Edited extra bit: in weird news, my spellchecker on Open Office Writer recognises Raikkonen but not Alonso. Maybe a Finn designed it...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    Clearly we've seen that rare item, a Budget that actually shifts opinion a bit. We've not yet seen convincing evidence of Labour's poll share dropping below the trends of the last year (e.g. 38 +/-2 in YG), but the Tories are up by about 3 points, and the narrowing gap is reportable and can be self-reinforcing. Given the volatility of Populus, I wonder if today's poll may put them ahead?

    I don't think the correct response is to rush out policies - it would look too much like a reaction, and we need to keep our nerve. The Euro figures are interesting, though. I'm encountering a fair amount of "Hey, I've no idea what I'll do in the Euros" on the doorstep, even from people who know for a certain what they'll do in the GE. Quite hard to call them, though I still think turnout will be decent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Before anyone accuses me of blind hatred of the Lib Dems I've actually backed Clegg in Hallam at 1/4. I think that is value and it should be more like 1/12 at the longest.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James - Burton (Con maj = 6,304)

    Con 4/6
    Lab 11/10
    LD 50/1
    UKIP 100/1
    BNP 150/1
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stan James - Bury North (Con maj = 2,243)

    Lab 1/3
    Con 2/1
    LD 50/1
    UKIP 100/1
    BNP 250/1
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,363
    MrJones said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    MH370

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg

    If there's debris then if you know the currents and how long the plane has been missing then you could guess where it went down which might provide a clue as to where it was going - if it was going anywhere and wasn't just a suicide / accident.

    Well, yes. But we don't have any confirmed debris yet. And it's sadly been so long since the crash, with many storms, that it will get spread. Large pieces in particular will be prone to wind and other effects.

    Even with debris found after a couple of days, it took investigators two years to find the wreckage of AF447.

    Your desire for a grand conspiracy theory is laughable, and your attempt to blame the pilot sickening.
    So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.
    If 'roughly' means within a few thousand square miles, yes.

    But tell me what this has to do with a) Diego Garcia, b) a 2-week old DM map, and c) your laughable interpretation of the pilot's looks, as you mentioned on the last thread.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Stan James - Burton (Con maj = 6,304)

    Con 4/6
    Lab 11/10
    LD 50/1
    UKIP 100/1
    BNP 150/1

    Staying out of that one, I think Labour will do not too badly at all in the north. Was Labour in 2005 also.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Calder Valley (Con maj = 6,431)

    Lab EVS (SJ)
    Con EVS (PP)
    LD 20/1 (PP)
    UKIP 66/1 (SJ)
    BNP 150/1 (SJ)
    Grn 250/1 (SJ)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    Clearly we've seen that rare item, a Budget that actually shifts opinion a bit. We've not yet seen convincing evidence of Labour's poll share dropping below the trends of the last year (e.g. 38 +/-2 in YG), but the Tories are up by about 3 points, and the narrowing gap is reportable and can be self-reinforcing. Given the volatility of Populus, I wonder if today's poll may put them ahead?

    I don't think the correct response is to rush out policies - it would look too much like a reaction, and we need to keep our nerve. The Euro figures are interesting, though. I'm encountering a fair amount of "Hey, I've no idea what I'll do in the Euros" on the doorstep, even from people who know for a certain what they'll do in the GE. Quite hard to call them, though I still think turnout will be decent.

    It's crystallising into a classic change versus job still to do battle. (With the added excitement of a new protest vote)
    I'd expect the Tories to have a good shot at getting the vote out 'fear the wolves at the door' and your guys to find it harder than when you were warning of wolves at the door.
    Going to be tight, acrimonious and, I feel, ultimately inconclusive with no change at number 10
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A thought on UKIP.
    Compare Sunderland to Dartford
    UKIP are taking from the establishment, whatever that is locally. That could wreak havoc in marginals either way.
    Nice
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited March 2014
    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    MH370

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg

    If there's debris then if you know the currents and how long the plane has been missing then you could guess where it went down which might provide a clue as to where it was going - if it was going anywhere and wasn't just a suicide / accident.

    Well, yes. But we don't have any confirmed debris yet. And it's sadly been so long since the crash, with many storms, that it will get spread. Large pieces in particular will be prone to wind and other effects.

    Even with debris found after a couple of days, it took investigators two years to find the wreckage of AF447.

    Your desire for a grand conspiracy theory is laughable, and your attempt to blame the pilot sickening.
    So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.
    If 'roughly' means within a few thousand square miles, yes.

    But tell me what this has to do with a) Diego Garcia, b) a 2-week old DM map, and c) your laughable interpretation of the pilot's looks, as you mentioned on the last thread.
    Well that's progress then. It would be interesting if one of the papers got hold of someone who knew the ocean currents at this time of year who could guess at where the plane went down.

    edit: It would still be interesting even if it was based on assumptions about the debris that might be wrong.

    The other stuff is currently just concocting thriller plots for entertainment. If it turns out the plane went down somewhere between the course change and Diego Garcia I'll come back to it.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Camborne and Redruth (Con maj = 66) also has 3 bookies:

    Con 8/15 (PP)
    LD 4/1 (SJ)
    UKIP 16/1 (Lad)
    Lab 20/1 (Lad)
    Lisa Dolley 100/1 (Lad)
    MK 250/1 (Lad)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    dyedwoolie said:

    A thought on UKIP.
    Compare Sunderland to Dartford
    UKIP are taking from the establishment, whatever that is locally. That could wreak havoc in marginals either way.
    Nice

    It is certainly a lot of fun for all of us who oppose the Lib-Lab-Con establishment.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Carlisle (Con maj = 853)

    Lab 1/4 (Lad)
    Con 4/1 (SJ)
    UKIP 100/1 (SJ)
    LD 100/1 (Lad)
    BNP 250/1 (SJ)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Slackbladder said:

    TGOHF said:

    http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/the-polls-that-show-weve-all-misunderstood-the-political-impact-of-the-budget/

    Poll narrowing not down to oldiez ?!!

    He makes a good point. Sometimes it's not what you do, it's that you're seen as knowing what you're doing. Confidence is a funny thing.
    Or even being seen to do something - Miliband should take note - doing a Brown isn't working.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2014
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    A thought on UKIP.
    Compare Sunderland to Dartford
    UKIP are taking from the establishment, whatever that is locally. That could wreak havoc in marginals either way.
    Nice

    It is certainly a lot of fun for all of us who oppose the Lib-Lab-Con establishment.
    Oh I do, but UKIP aren't the answer. Hence I'm backing Tory for do least harm to the future economic prospects of the country until someone, somewhere comes forward with the answer and the 'hard working majority and disenchanted' swing behind it.
    Owen tried it and got swallowed up by the establishment
    Farage is trying it but is wrongheaded
    Kilroy-Silk tried it but he's an idiot

    Edit - the only thing that matters in 2015 for me is keeping Miliband and Balls out
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Sunny Hundal ‏@sunny_hundal · 3 mins
    Labour would appoint gay rights envoy to tackle international discrimination, says Ed Miliband http://goo.gl/HLgdOU

    I'm sure Uganda will be hugely welcoming to the equivalent of a modern day missionary.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    edited March 2014
    No debate bounce for the Yellows or Purples.

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 35 (+1); LD 8 (-2); UKIP 12 (-1); Oth 7 (-1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140328
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Patrick said:

    Well now imagine how Redward is going to feel if he fails to become PM. It's the openest goal in political history. Unmissable. And yet....

    Is it chiefly the openest because of the efforts of multimillionaire Ted Miliband himself though?

    In 2009 to 2010, with a deranged monster of a leader who'd spent literally decades stabbing his colleagues in the back while wrecking several economies worse than WW2, Broon's Labour looked mortally wounded for a generation. Alongside the freak show that was Gordon himself, the publicly-noticed face of Labour was other freaks: Ed "Prostate" Balls, Batty Hattie, Alastair "Recovering Alcoholic" Campbell, Damian McBride, Denis Macshane, and of course multimillionaire Butcher Blair*. In 2010 nobody commenting on the unheimlichkeit of Labour's team was pointing at multimillionaire Ted Miliband to make their point.

    He is thus due some credit for going from unremarkable nebbisch to conspicuous freak in less than four years. If he looks weird it's because Labour looks relatively normal again. As Labour leader, this is chiefly his doing.

    Admittedly he's done this chiefly by hiding this ghastliness away rather than purging it. They haven't gone away. Batty Hattie's still working on a white paper outlawing the white penis. They're still the same wrecking ball they always were.

    The question that arises is what will happen when the public are being reminded - every day - of who Labour is and what Labour actually does in office. This will tell us whether multimillionaire Ted Miliband is Konrad Adenauer, or merely fellow multimillionaire Neil Kinnock.

    * there's also Sion "fretful mazurka" Simon, but I don't think anyone outside his own family ever noticed or remembers him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Slackbladder said:

    Sunny Hundal ‏@sunny_hundal · 3 mins
    Labour would appoint gay rights envoy to tackle international discrimination, says Ed Miliband http://goo.gl/HLgdOU

    I'm sure Uganda will be hugely welcoming to the equivalent of a modern day missionary.

    I'll refrain from making any jokes about Ugandan discussions or Missionary Positions.

    'Cause I'm mature like that.
  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was that the last hope for Q1 level backers just gone ?

    There's a poll on Sunday - at this rate Labour will be three points adrift by then!
    From your keyboard to god's inbox.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Slackbladder said:

    Sunny Hundal ‏@sunny_hundal · 3 mins
    Labour would appoint gay rights envoy to tackle international discrimination, says Ed Miliband http://goo.gl/HLgdOU

    I'm sure Uganda will be hugely welcoming to the equivalent of a modern day missionary.

    Ed finally found a job for Liam Byrne ?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not much of a debate bounce for the Lib Dems or UKIP with Populus:

    Lab 37 (+2); Cons 35 (+1); LD 8 (-2); UKIP 12 (-1); Oth 7 (-1)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MrJones said:

    It would be interesting if one of the papers got hold of someone who knew the ocean currents at this time of year

    You could do better than that. The National Centre for Ocean Forecasting in the UK provides forecasts for the Royal Navy and they would have reasonably good observations of the currents and so would be able to do the sort of back-trajectory calculation that has been done with air pollution.

    No idea what their accuracy would be three weeks after a crash, but ocean currents are considerably slower than the winds, so you would probably get something useful out of it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,363
    MrJones said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    MH370

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg

    If there's debris then if you know the currents and how long the plane has been missing then you could guess where it went down which might provide a clue as to where it was going - if it was going anywhere and wasn't just a suicide / accident.

    Well, yes. But we don't have any confirmed debris yet. And it's sadly been so long since the crash, with many storms, that it will get spread. Large pieces in particular will be prone to wind and other effects.

    Even with debris found after a couple of days, it took investigators two years to find the wreckage of AF447.

    Your desire for a grand conspiracy theory is laughable, and your attempt to blame the pilot sickening.
    So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.
    If 'roughly' means within a few thousand square miles, yes.

    But tell me what this has to do with a) Diego Garcia, b) a 2-week old DM map, and c) your laughable interpretation of the pilot's looks, as you mentioned on the last thread.
    Well that's progress then. It would be interesting if one of the papers got hold of someone who knew the ocean currents at this time of year who could guess at where the plane went down.

    edit: It would still be interesting even if it was based on assumptions about the debris that might be wrong.

    The other stuff is currently just concocting thriller plots for entertainment. If it turns out the plane went down somewhere between the course change and Diego Garcia I'll come back to it.
    No, it was a conspiracy theory and an attempt by you to smear the pilot.

    As for guessing where the plane went down: we cannot do that until we have confirmed debris. We don't even have that yet.

    As I've said before, the least-worst cause for Boeing, RR, Malaysian airlines and the Malaysian government is a rogue pilot. Pilots have been blamed before in 'inexplicable' crashes, only for mechanical failure to be found after other crashes at the cost of a great many lives.
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Stan James - Brentford and Isleworth (Lab maj = 4,411)

    Lab 2/7
    Con 11/4
    LD 16/1
    UKIP 100/1
    Grn 500/1

    Stuart - Brentford is currently Con maj 1,958 - the Lab maj 4411 was 2005
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If Labour is looking for someone to travel around the world standing behind gay men, where do I find the application form?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Right, can someone explain this paradox to me please, because it is driving me up the effing wall trying to reconcile and make sense of it.

    Pollsters, such as today's Populus and last night's YouGov have the Tories on 35%, 2% down from their GE score, and the Kippers on 11/12%.

    Now given that the Kippers have hurt the Tories more than most, how is it possible for the Tories to be only 2% down and UKIP 7/8% up on their GE score?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Garethofthevale said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Stan James - Brentford and Isleworth (Lab maj = 4,411)

    Lab 2/7
    Con 11/4
    LD 16/1
    UKIP 100/1
    Grn 500/1

    Stuart - Brentford is currently Con maj 1,958 - the Lab maj 4411 was 2005
    Thanks! (I was Googling too fast! Disclaimer: if you are planning on betting, please check full details with bookies and results sites before making a decision.)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TSE A few extra converts for the Conservatives from Labour and quite a lot of extra converts from the Lib Dems.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    dyedwoolie said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    A thought on UKIP.
    Compare Sunderland to Dartford
    UKIP are taking from the establishment, whatever that is locally. That could wreak havoc in marginals either way.
    Nice

    It is certainly a lot of fun for all of us who oppose the Lib-Lab-Con establishment.
    Oh I do, but UKIP aren't the answer. Hence I'm backing Tory for do least harm to the future economic prospects of the country until someone, somewhere comes forward with the answer and the 'hard working majority and disenchanted' swing behind it.
    Owen tried it and got swallowed up by the establishment
    Farage is trying it but is wrongheaded
    Kilroy-Silk tried it but he's an idiot

    Edit - the only thing that matters in 2015 for me is keeping Miliband and Balls out
    Did you see that Owen has just re-joined Labour?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    antifrank said:

    @TSE A few extra converts for the Conservatives from Labour and quite a lot of extra converts from the Lib Dems.

    Thanks.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I agree about the debate genie, but the Tories had Andrew Mitchell and John Redwood doing sky interviews after the debate. Labour put up Jon Ashworth, who only wanted to trot out "cost of living crisis" rather than anything sensible on Europe. I hope that they put up someone intelligent after the second debate, otherwise they just yield the floor.

    Labour just prefer to keep quiet on europe, the LibDems are the only party to actively campaign as pro european, a large part of the reason that I support them.
    JackW said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The poor support of the BT campaign, the absence of any talking heads from Labour after the Eurodebate, the absence of any coherent response to the budget all speak to me of having noone at the controls at Labour head office. This is a party on autopilot.

    It sounds as if Nick and others are pounding the pavements, but I suspect that with the party largely backing the coalition budget, spending cap and benefits cap not with much enthusiasm.

    Complacency does not do it justice. The Euros are weeks away, and World cup and Indy ref will dominate most of the rest of the year. Not much time to build a campaign.


    BobaFett said:

    Terrible polls for Labour at the moment. Need to change the narrative somehow as the party has been floundering since the Budget.

    In fairness to Labour and indeed the Conservatives the Clegg/Farage debates are a no win situation for Ed and Dave. They don't want to give credence to them and so have to largely ignore them and take the hit that comes from their absence.

    One other factor that these two debates have ensured is that the GE debates will take place even if a single participant is absent then the media will empty chair that contender, a situation that with three debates in a general election campaign no party will possibly contemplate.

    As I've indicated before, the debate genie is permanently out of the bottle.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right, can someone explain this paradox to me please, because it is driving me up the effing wall trying to reconcile and make sense of it.

    Pollsters, such as today's Populus and last night's YouGov have the Tories on 35%, 2% down from their GE score, and the Kippers on 11/12%.

    Now given that the Kippers have hurt the Tories more than most, how is it possible for the Tories to be only 2% down and UKIP 7/8% up on their GE score?

    The protest vote swinging from the Cleggasm to Faragasm, the Tories not being nearly as unpopular as people suggest and gaining Lib Dem drifters, Labour being far worse than people suggest and profiting only from mid term anti-government sentiment.
    Perm any two from that three or many of the other reasons you can think of.
    UKIP and Tory are not simply conflatable

    Or....but for UKIP the Tories would be on 43?

    Time time time will tell
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MrJones said:

    MH370

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg

    If there's debris then if you know the currents and how long the plane has been missing then you could guess where it went down which might provide a clue as to where it was going - if it was going anywhere and wasn't just a suicide / accident.

    Well, yes. But we don't have any confirmed debris yet. And it's sadly been so long since the crash, with many storms, that it will get spread. Large pieces in particular will be prone to wind and other effects.

    Even with debris found after a couple of days, it took investigators two years to find the wreckage of AF447.

    Your desire for a grand conspiracy theory is laughable, and your attempt to blame the pilot sickening.
    So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.
    If 'roughly' means within a few thousand square miles, yes.

    But tell me what this has to do with a) Diego Garcia, b) a 2-week old DM map, and c) your laughable interpretation of the pilot's looks, as you mentioned on the last thread.
    Well that's progress then. It would be interesting if one of the papers got hold of someone who knew the ocean currents at this time of year who could guess at where the plane went down.

    edit: It would still be interesting even if it was based on assumptions about the debris that might be wrong.

    The other stuff is currently just concocting thriller plots for entertainment. If it turns out the plane went down somewhere between the course change and Diego Garcia I'll come back to it.
    No, it was a conspiracy theory and an attempt by you to smear the pilot.

    As for guessing where the plane went down: we cannot do that until we have confirmed debris. We don't even have that yet.

    As I've said before, the least-worst cause for Boeing, RR, Malaysian airlines and the Malaysian government is a rogue pilot. Pilots have been blamed before in 'inexplicable' crashes, only for mechanical failure to be found after other crashes at the cost of a great many lives.
    Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.

    That would be interesting.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Best prices - Calder Valley (Con maj = 6,431)

    Lab EVS (SJ)
    Con EVS (PP)
    LD 20/1 (PP)
    UKIP 66/1 (SJ)
    BNP 150/1 (SJ)
    Grn 250/1 (SJ)

    It is prices like that that cast doubt on Jack W's constant assertion that Ed Miliband will never be prime minister.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Pulpstar said:

    Was that the last hope for Q1 level backers just gone ?

    Two more polls left.

    I clarified this with Paddy Power last summer, when I did the thread on it.

    They are using when the fieldwork was completed.

    If anyone has bet purely on Q1, they may end up kicking themselves if the poll that ends on the 1st April shows a Tory lead, as part of the fieldwork was carried out in Q1.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    dyedwoolie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right, can someone explain this paradox to me please, because it is driving me up the effing wall trying to reconcile and make sense of it.

    Pollsters, such as today's Populus and last night's YouGov have the Tories on 35%, 2% down from their GE score, and the Kippers on 11/12%.

    Now given that the Kippers have hurt the Tories more than most, how is it possible for the Tories to be only 2% down and UKIP 7/8% up on their GE score?

    The protest vote swinging from the Cleggasm to Faragasm, the Tories not being nearly as unpopular as people suggest and gaining Lib Dem drifters, Labour being far worse than people suggest and profiting only from mid term anti-government sentiment.
    Perm any three from that four or many of the other reasons you can think of.
    UKIP and Tory are not simply conflatable
    Thanks and great to see you back.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    OblitusSumMe said:

    MrJones said:

    It would be interesting if one of the papers got hold of someone who knew the ocean currents at this time of year

    You could do better than that. The National Centre for Ocean Forecasting in the UK provides forecasts for the Royal Navy and they would have reasonably good observations of the currents and so would be able to do the sort of back-trajectory calculation that has been done with air pollution.

    No idea what their accuracy would be three weeks after a crash, but ocean currents are considerably slower than the winds, so you would probably get something useful out of it.
    Yeah, one of the papers might do it to get a new spin on the story.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    *** LOOKS AROUND FOR POLLING CROSSOVER****


    Nope, nothing happening here.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    MrJones said:


    So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.

    I'm not optimistic. How useful is 'roughly' anyway?

    There was pretty good positional information on where the US and Japanese carriers sank at Midway in 1942. It took years to find the US carrier. All that's been found of any IJN carrier is a chunk of a gun tub, which you'd think would imply the rest was nearby. But it's not and these were vessels displacing 43,000 tons.

    Being much bigger than airliners - and usually in one big piece - you'd think ships would be relatively simple to find. They are very hard to find though. Ships that sink often hit the seabed miles from where they left the surface.

    Why do black boxes not have a thing like an airbag to make them float? Anyone know?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right, can someone explain this paradox to me please, because it is driving me up the effing wall trying to reconcile and make sense of it.

    Pollsters, such as today's Populus and last night's YouGov have the Tories on 35%, 2% down from their GE score, and the Kippers on 11/12%.

    Now given that the Kippers have hurt the Tories more than most, how is it possible for the Tories to be only 2% down and UKIP 7/8% up on their GE score?

    Suppose the Tories lost 3% to UKIP, but have also gained 1% from the Lib Dems. They are down a net 2%.

    UKIP gained 3% from the Tories, 1% from Labour, 2% from the Lib Dems and 1-2% from BNP/non-voters. Thus UKIP are up 7-8%. Easy.

    Also, at times in this Parliament the Tories have been making net gains of voters from Labour. The Tory-Labour swing voters are still out there. Thus in the example above if the Tories pick up 1% from Labour then they could have lost 4% to UKIP, and still only be a net 2% down.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One thing to think about: if a fair chunk of the UKIP support is indeed a protest vote that would normally go to the opposition by default, where will they go to if/when they stop protesting?

    And just how big is the protest vote aspect of UKIP's current support?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    compouter2 said:

    *** LOOKS AROUND FOR POLLING CROSSOVER****


    Nope, nothing happening here.

    Pouters - are you looking forward to the new "no +7% lead required for a majority" assault as of next week ?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    MrJones said:


    So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.

    I'm not optimistic. How useful is 'roughly' anyway?

    There was pretty good positional information on where the US and Japanese carriers sank at Midway in 1942. It took years to find the US carrier. All that's been found of any IJN carrier is a chunk of a gun tub, which you'd think would imply the rest was nearby. But it's not and these were vessels displacing 43,000 tons.

    Being much bigger than airliners - and usually in one big piece - you'd think ships would be relatively simple to find. They are very hard to find though. Ships that sink often hit the seabed miles from where they left the surface.

    Why do black boxes not have a thing like an airbag to make them float? Anyone know?
    Could well be - I'm just assuming satellites etc might make it easier but I don't know.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Pulpstar said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    YouGov - Scottish Parliament voting intention

    Scottish Parliament constituency vote (FPTP)

    SNP 38% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Con 13% (-1)
    LD 7% (+2)

    Scottish Parliament regional list vote (AMS)

    Lab 33% (-2)
    SNP 33% (n/c)
    Con 13% (-1)
    Grn 7% (+1)
    LD 7% (+2)

    No statistically significant changes there. All MoE stuff.


    I'd love to meet the Scots who vote Labour in Westminster elections, SNP at Holyrood. There are a fair few about.
    Housing estates are full of them. I could almost tell you where those kinds of voters live just by looking at the types of houses. In fact, it is exactly these kinds of streets which contain the electors who will decide the outcome of the IndyRef. The astonishing thing is that BT canvassers have yet to even start knocking doors in these areas yet. Yes Scotland are on their 3rd or 4th canvass in the majority of them.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,270
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Stan James - South Basildon and East Thurrock (Con maj = 5,772)

    Con 8/13
    Lab 6/5
    LD 50/1
    UKIP 66/1
    BNP 150/1

    UKIP have to be backed at 66s there.. SJ just offered me 37p :(
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2014
    I'm sorry that I don't have access to Avery's supply of yellow boxes, but Chris Giles of the FT has tweeted on the January services growth figures:

    twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/449483888315076608/photo/1
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right, can someone explain this paradox to me please, because it is driving me up the effing wall trying to reconcile and make sense of it.

    Pollsters, such as today's Populus and last night's YouGov have the Tories on 35%, 2% down from their GE score, and the Kippers on 11/12%.

    Now given that the Kippers have hurt the Tories more than most, how is it possible for the Tories to be only 2% down and UKIP 7/8% up on their GE score?

    The protest vote swinging from the Cleggasm to Faragasm, the Tories not being nearly as unpopular as people suggest and gaining Lib Dem drifters, Labour being far worse than people suggest and profiting only from mid term anti-government sentiment.
    Perm any three from that four or many of the other reasons you can think of.
    UKIP and Tory are not simply conflatable
    Thanks and great to see you back.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right, can someone explain this paradox to me please, because it is driving me up the effing wall trying to reconcile and make sense of it.

    Pollsters, such as today's Populus and last night's YouGov have the Tories on 35%, 2% down from their GE score, and the Kippers on 11/12%.

    Now given that the Kippers have hurt the Tories more than most, how is it possible for the Tories to be only 2% down and UKIP 7/8% up on their GE score?

    The protest vote swinging from the Cleggasm to Faragasm, the Tories not being nearly as unpopular as people suggest and gaining Lib Dem drifters, Labour being far worse than people suggest and profiting only from mid term anti-government sentiment.
    Perm any three from that four or many of the other reasons you can think of.
    UKIP and Tory are not simply conflatable
    Thanks and great to see you back.
    Thanks.
    Could all be rubbish. But labour are not setting any hearts aflame (as Cameron didn't in 2010), and something has to give somewhere. UKIP won't poll double figures in a GE, 8 tops for me, more like 6.
    If those really are mainly Tories....... Those odds look tasty that keep popping up.
    However. We will see. Maybe Ed will crack it and move away, but that would defy swing back..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Yeah, looking at today's YouGov.

    Of those expressing a Voting Intention,

    2% of 2010 Tories are planning to vote Lib Dem, but 10% of 2010 Lib Dems are planning to vote Tory.

    6% of 2010 Tories are planning to vote Labour, but 7% of 2010 Lab supporters are planning to vote Tory.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    I've emailed Oddschecker informing them of the masses of seat prices they are missing. They are usually pretty good at fixing think like that promptly. I think they had a lot of problems with Betfair's new commission structure cos the Betfair prices were missing from several markets.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    TGOHF said:

    compouter2 said:

    *** LOOKS AROUND FOR POLLING CROSSOVER****


    Nope, nothing happening here.

    Pouters - are you looking forward to the new "no +7% lead required for a majority" assault as of next week ?
    No, however, I will look forward to the Tory fall out if they poll below UKIP in the Euros. There is nothing better than seeing the Tory Party tearing itself apart over Europe. Top quality entertainment and is always offered in copious amounts.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    007

    Labour still are, as you rightly point out, a freak show. Which is a shame because every government needs a credible opposition.

    All political parties are menageries with some unsavoury or low grade dross on the payroll - but I think one good point about the coalition is that for the most part their ministerial team is not that shabby. I rate Ozzy, Gove, Alexander, Hammond, Webb, May and several others. We're a reasonably well governed country for the first time since the 1990s. (and yes there are still some deeply unimpressive fu<kwits on the tam - such as Ed Davey).

    But Labour? Is there no beginning to their talent? I know I'm biased, but I genuinely struggle to identify a single shadow cabinet member that is not a complete knobber. I may not have liked the politics of Blair or Healey or Smith or many others - but I could respect them. This lot? I fart in their general direction. It is a truly frightening prospect that they are quite likely to be running the country in 18 months' time.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    Why do black boxes not have a thing like an airbag to make them float? Anyone know?

    The black box has to survive any conceivable disaster that might afflict an airliner - 1000 degree fires, terrorist bombs, collisions with various immovable objects. It's pretty difficult.

    I would guess that means it can't be perfectly designed to be easily locatable in case of a crash into the ocean, because of all the other scenarios it has to be able to survive.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    isam said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Stan James - South Basildon and East Thurrock (Con maj = 5,772)

    Con 8/13
    Lab 6/5
    LD 50/1
    UKIP 66/1
    BNP 150/1

    UKIP have to be backed at 66s there.. SJ just offered me 37p :(
    :)

    You do not surprise me. A lot of these published prices are "pretend prices". As soon as a serious punter comes along they chicken out.

    The worst are Victor Chandler. The best are Ladbrokes, followed by Hills. PP in the middle.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So no Lib Dem or UKIP comment on the polling slump by both parties with Populus in the wake of the debate? It appears that the great British public were not only not transfixed by an hour's debate between the two extremes of EU-wingnuttery, they were actively repulsed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    edited March 2014
    antifrank said:

    So no Lib Dem or UKIP comment on the polling slump by both parties with Populus in the wake of the debate? It appears that the great British public were not only not transfixed by an hour's debate between the two extremes of EU-wingnuttery, they were actively repulsed.

    To be fair, I don't think most voters watched it.

    Unless you expect it to be one Populus' most noticed stories this week?

    Edit: This response appears to be a bit surly, it wasn't meant to appear like that.
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