Pouters - are you looking forward to the new "no +7% lead required for a majority" assault as of next week ?
No, however, I will look forward to the Tory fall out if they poll below UKIP in the Euros. There is nothing better than seeing the Tory Party tearing itself apart over Europe. Top quality entertainment and is always offered in copious amounts.
Not sure the Cons would be that unhappy finishing 2nd behind Ukip in the Euros myself but..
So no Lib Dem or UKIP comment on the polling slump by both parties with Populus in the wake of the debate? It appears that the great British public were not only not transfixed by an hour's debate between the two extremes of EU-wingnuttery, they were actively repulsed.
In reality, with the exception of politico nerds, PB readers, hacks and Euro haters, it was...... what debate?
So ignoring the chaff you agree that if there's debris then oceans currents should allow you to guess roughly where the plane hit.
I'm not optimistic. How useful is 'roughly' anyway?
There was pretty good positional information on where the US and Japanese carriers sank at Midway in 1942. It took years to find the US carrier. All that's been found of any IJN carrier is a chunk of a gun tub, which you'd think would imply the rest was nearby. But it's not and these were vessels displacing 43,000 tons.
Being much bigger than airliners - and usually in one big piece - you'd think ships would be relatively simple to find. They are very hard to find though. Ships that sink often hit the seabed miles from where they left the surface.
Why do black boxes not have a thing like an airbag to make them float? Anyone know?
Possibly because of (a) maintenance and other risks of having an explosive unit, and (b) because it might not work well - it has to be ejected from the wreckage anyway somehow. And (c) I suspect because if it initiated at depth it won't float so well anyway. Each 10m depth of water adds another 1 atmosphere or bar (more or less) pressure to the surface atmospheric pressure. So at [edit: 10m depth, it's 2x atmospheric, at 100m] it's 11 bar, and at 1000m it's 101 bar. At that last the air bag is going to be about say 1-2% of its normal working volume at depth = zero (depending on the overpressure at surface conditions). Not much use as a floatation aid, even if the pressure doesn't mess up the chemistry of the explosives used. Even at 100m it may not work well.
No, it was a conspiracy theory and an attempt by you to smear the pilot.
As for guessing where the plane went down: we cannot do that until we have confirmed debris. We don't even have that yet.
As I've said before, the least-worst cause for Boeing, RR, Malaysian airlines and the Malaysian government is a rogue pilot. Pilots have been blamed before in 'inexplicable' crashes, only for mechanical failure to be found after other crashes at the cost of a great many lives.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
Yes, and the guess would be within a few thousands, and possibly tens of thousands, of square miles. A truly massive area.
It gets worse if it was a mid-air explosion (which admittedly looks unlikely) - after Lockerbie large debris was spread over twenty miles, and lighter items were found as far away as Northumberland. Indeed, a critical piece of evidence - a brochure - was found near the east coast in Morpeth, over sixty miles away.
So no Lib Dem or UKIP comment on the polling slump by both parties with Populus in the wake of the debate? It appears that the great British public were not only not transfixed by an hour's debate between the two extremes of EU-wingnuttery, they were actively repulsed.
To be fair, I don't think most voters watched it.
Unless you expect it to be one Populus' most noticed stories this week?
Edit: This response appears to be a bit surly, it wasn't meant to appear like that.
But but but... this was supposed to have been a triumph for Mr Clegg and Mr Farage alike, and a disaster for Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband. We had whole threads devoted to it.
I cannot begin to tell you how surprised I am to see that it hasn't apparently helped either the Lib Dems or UKIP.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
From what I've heard, they've been searching locations on two sources of information: possible debris sighted by satellites and estimates of where the plane went down based on estimated fuel burn and the flight corridor calculate by Immarsat.
You could assume that the objects they've spotted with satellites is plane debris and work backwards from there, but there appears to be enough junk in the ocean that it wouldn't tell you too much.
I've found some ocean current observations: cached plot or create your own [God bless the Yanks for making so much data freely available].
Even at their strongest under the storm track the currents are much less than 1 metre per second. Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day.
This implies two things. Firstly, it's not possible for the debris to have drifted very far from the point at which the plane came down. Secondly, the uncertainty created by the ocean currents is currently much smaller than the uncertainty in the search areas based on fuel burn estimates, etc.
So no Lib Dem or UKIP comment on the polling slump by both parties with Populus in the wake of the debate? It appears that the great British public were not only not transfixed by an hour's debate between the two extremes of EU-wingnuttery, they were actively repulsed.
To be fair, I don't think most voters watched it.
Unless you expect it to be one Populus' most noticed stories this week?
Edit: This response appears to be a bit surly, it wasn't meant to appear like that.
But but but... this was supposed to have been a triumph for Mr Clegg and Mr Farage alike, and a disaster for Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband. We had whole threads devoted to it.
I cannot begin to tell you how surprised I am to see that it hasn't apparently helped either the Lib Dems or UKIP.
That was merely the warm up.
The main bout is next Wednesday on BBC2.
Last week's show was restricted to Sky News and a niche radio station.
Lab 33% (-2) SNP 33% (n/c) Con 13% (-1) Grn 7% (+1) LD 7% (+2)
No statistically significant changes there. All MoE stuff.
I'd love to meet the Scots who vote Labour in Westminster elections, SNP at Holyrood. There are a fair few about.
Housing estates are full of them. I could almost tell you where those kinds of voters live just by looking at the types of houses. In fact, it is exactly these kinds of streets which contain the electors who will decide the outcome of the IndyRef. The astonishing thing is that BT canvassers have yet to even start knocking doors in these areas yet. Yes Scotland are on their 3rd or 4th canvass in the majority of them.
They don't have people to knock doors, they have to rely on e-mails or English call centres.
No, it was a conspiracy theory and an attempt by you to smear the pilot.
As for guessing where the plane went down: we cannot do that until we have confirmed debris. We don't even have that yet.
As I've said before, the least-worst cause for Boeing, RR, Malaysian airlines and the Malaysian government is a rogue pilot. Pilots have been blamed before in 'inexplicable' crashes, only for mechanical failure to be found after other crashes at the cost of a great many lives.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
Yes, and the guess would be within a few thousands, and possibly tens of thousands, of square miles. A truly massive area.
It gets worse if it was a mid-air explosion (which admittedly looks unlikely) - after Lockerbie large debris was spread over twenty miles, and lighter items were found as far away as Northumberland. Indeed, a critical piece of evidence - a brochure - was found near the east coast in Morpeth, over sixty miles away.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
From what I've heard, they've been searching locations on two sources of information: possible debris sighted by satellites and estimates of where the plane went down based on estimated fuel burn and the flight corridor calculate by Immarsat.
You could assume that the objects they've spotted with satellites is plane debris and work backwards from there, but there appears to be enough junk in the ocean that it wouldn't tell you too much.
I've found some ocean current observations: cached plot or create your own [God bless the Yanks for making so much data freely available].
Even at their strongest under the storm track the currents are much less than 1 metre per second. Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day.
This implies two things. Firstly, it's not possible for the debris to have drifted very far from the point at which the plane came down. Secondly, the uncertainty created by the ocean currents is currently much smaller than the uncertainty in the search areas based on fuel burn estimates, etc.
No, it was a conspiracy theory and an attempt by you to smear the pilot.
As for guessing where the plane went down: we cannot do that until we have confirmed debris. We don't even have that yet.
As I've said before, the least-worst cause for Boeing, RR, Malaysian airlines and the Malaysian government is a rogue pilot. Pilots have been blamed before in 'inexplicable' crashes, only for mechanical failure to be found after other crashes at the cost of a great many lives.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
Yes, and the guess would be within a few thousands, and possibly tens of thousands, of square miles. A truly massive area.
It gets worse if it was a mid-air explosion (which admittedly looks unlikely) - after Lockerbie large debris was spread over twenty miles, and lighter items were found as far away as Northumberland. Indeed, a critical piece of evidence - a brochure - was found near the east coast in Morpeth, over sixty miles away.
Then again, an uncertain answer would aid the conspiracy theory you're evidently salivating over.
"Yes"
Correct answer.
It's a shame your tinfoil hat prevents you from copying the rest of the sentence.
Are you going to apologise to the pilot's family for your smear? Are you aware that sick comments such as yours on the previous thread will be causing them pain?
Absolutely awful current account deficit and a major revision as well. Strong pound beginning to bite?
So much more work needs to be done, the government needs to concentrate their efforts on rebuilding UK supply chains to make domestic parts and labour more attractive to assemblers, and so that we can get exporting again. It's no good having assembly in the UK when 90% of the parts are imported from China or Germany
The UK economy is unbalanced and the recovery has some way to go before it will feed through into the current account.
In better news, business investment is picking up and the index of services was 0.9% against a 0.6% expectation.
No, it was a conspiracy theory and an attempt by you to smear the pilot.
As for guessing where the plane went down: we cannot do that until we have confirmed debris. We don't even have that yet.
As I've said before, the least-worst cause for Boeing, RR, Malaysian airlines and the Malaysian government is a rogue pilot. Pilots have been blamed before in 'inexplicable' crashes, only for mechanical failure to be found after other crashes at the cost of a great many lives.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
Yes, and the guess would be within a few thousands, and possibly tens of thousands, of square miles. A truly massive area.
It gets worse if it was a mid-air explosion (which admittedly looks unlikely) - after Lockerbie large debris was spread over twenty miles, and lighter items were found as far away as Northumberland. Indeed, a critical piece of evidence - a brochure - was found near the east coast in Morpeth, over sixty miles away.
Then again, an uncertain answer would aid the conspiracy theory you're evidently salivating over.
"Yes"
Correct answer.
It's a shame your tinfoil hat prevents you from copying the rest of the sentence.
Are you going to apologise to the pilot's family for your smear? Are you aware that sick comments such as yours on the previous thread will be causing them pain?
Mr Farage says most UKIP voters are not ex-Tories, and this is true. But it is also true that they are more likely to be ex-Tories than anything else. For these people, the Conservatives have settled on the message that however much they may like what Nigel has to say, the better UKIP do next May the more likely it is that Her Majesty will have to ask Ed Miliband to form a government.
Of the available options, this is probably the right line to choose. Trying to out-UKIP UKIP would not just be fruitless but counterproductive, given that many wavering potential Tories are former Liberal Democrats. And while some new UKIP supporters are irreconcilable, the preferred election result for Conservative defectors overall is to see their old party back in government. Reminding them that there is only one way to achieve such an outcome must be the right approach.http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/03/vote-ukip-get/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=vote-ukip-get
One thing to think about: if a fair chunk of the UKIP support is indeed a protest vote that would normally go to the opposition by default, where will they go to if/when they stop protesting?
And just how big is the protest vote aspect of UKIP's current support?
I have no idea and it's a good question. I do think that quite a lot of UKIP's vote is people like me, who are in favour of the EU, but deeply pissed off at the inept way we handle our position and the crap deal.
Britain's membership is crucial to the EU for four reasons: we pay them money, we buy their goods, our presence adds credibility, and if we left, lots of others would do so too - to the point where it might even break up.
Also, the EU would gain nothing from us leaving.
Ergo it is worth a lot to the EU to keep us in. We are however treated as though we were Latvia. We aren't Latvia and we could be a lot more bolshy and get away with it.
I therefore sympathise with some UKIP aims but think theirs is at most a useful negotiating position, and I judge that most of them are not the loonies they appear to be.
"Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day."
Given the time since the crash that would mean any floating debris could have travelled the best part of a thousand miles. Of course, the drift would have been increased or decreased by the effect of wind and waves. Such effects may be substantial or trivial but can only really be guessed.
As an undergraduate I did an exercise on just this sort of problem, the mathematics is not really that daunting, especially with computers to do the heavy lifting (which I didn't have), but what you get is an area of probability that is really quite large - in this case, given the elapsed time and the uncertainties of wind and wave conditions, probably in the tens of thousands of square miles. And that is after wreckage has been found.
The open ocean really is a big place. I think it most likely that the main body of the wreckage, the bits that sunk, will never be found and even if the searchers get really, really lucky and find it I am not sure what it would reveal.
A thought on UKIP. Compare Sunderland to Dartford UKIP are taking from the establishment, whatever that is locally. That could wreak havoc in marginals either way. Nice
It is certainly a lot of fun for all of us who oppose the Lib-Lab-Con establishment.
Oh I do, but UKIP aren't the answer. Hence I'm backing Tory for do least harm to the future economic prospects of the country until someone, somewhere comes forward with the answer and the 'hard working majority and disenchanted' swing behind it. Owen tried it and got swallowed up by the establishment Farage is trying it but is wrongheaded Kilroy-Silk tried it but he's an idiot
Edit - the only thing that matters in 2015 for me is keeping Miliband and Balls out
Did you see that Owen has just re-joined Labour?
Except he hasn't. He gave them a large donation, and now sits in the HoL as an Independent Social Democrat.
Must have been misreported by the Stockholm Chronicle.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
From what I've heard, they've been searching locations on two sources of information: possible debris sighted by satellites and estimates of where the plane went down based on estimated fuel burn and the flight corridor calculate by Immarsat.
You could assume that the objects they've spotted with satellites is plane debris and work backwards from there, but there appears to be enough junk in the ocean that it wouldn't tell you too much.
I've found some ocean current observations: cached plot or create your own [God bless the Yanks for making so much data freely available].
Even at their strongest under the storm track the currents are much less than 1 metre per second. Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day.
This implies two things. Firstly, it's not possible for the debris to have drifted very far from the point at which the plane came down. Secondly, the uncertainty created by the ocean currents is currently much smaller than the uncertainty in the search areas based on fuel burn estimates, etc.
The eventual aim of all this it to find as much of the plane as possible, and particularly the black box recorders. The area to be searched is truly vast. As I said passim, AF447 was not found for two years, and that was with debris found after a few days.
Let's take your figures. Say some debris is found on the surface. They believe the ocean current are from (say) 0.75 to 1 metre per second (I doubt they will know it that accurately, or that it is that constant). That gives a variance of 0.25 metres per second, or about 20km a day. Multiply that by the twenty days the plane's been missing, and the variance alone gives a 400 km swathe to search. And that does not even include angular variance in the currents, wind and wave effects (as mentioned by Mr Llama below).
But it still won't get the plane near enough to Diego Garcia to satisfy MrJones ...
I think that a fair bit of kipper support takes a similar view, after all according to Kellner only 20% would vote to leave the EU if we had much improved terms (how realistic these terms are is another question).
This is the position of the Tories, and even Nick Clegg was advocating reform on Wednesday. Who of the other 80% would not support improved terms?
One thing to think about: if a fair chunk of the UKIP support is indeed a protest vote that would normally go to the opposition by default, where will they go to if/when they stop protesting?
And just how big is the protest vote aspect of UKIP's current support?
I have no idea and it's a good question. I do think that quite a lot of UKIP's vote is people like me, who are in favour of the EU, but deeply pissed off at the inept way we handle our position and the crap deal.
Britain's membership is crucial to the EU for four reasons: we pay them money, we buy their goods, our presence adds credibility, and if we left, lots of others would do so too - to the point where it might even break up.
Also, the EU would gain nothing from us leaving.
Ergo it is worth a lot to the EU to keep us in. We are however treated as though we were Latvia. We aren't Latvia and we could be a lot more bolshy and get away with it.
I therefore sympathise with some UKIP aims but think theirs is at most a useful negotiating position, and I judge that most of them are not the loonies they appear to be.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
From what I've heard, they've been searching locations on two sources of information: possible debris sighted by satellites and estimates of where the plane went down based on estimated fuel burn and the flight corridor calculate by Immarsat.
You could assume that the objects they've spotted with satellites is plane debris and work backwards from there, but there appears to be enough junk in the ocean that it wouldn't tell you too much.
I've found some ocean current observations: cached plot or create your own [God bless the Yanks for making so much data freely available].
Even at their strongest under the storm track the currents are much less than 1 metre per second. Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day.
This implies two things. Firstly, it's not possible for the debris to have drifted very far from the point at which the plane came down. Secondly, the uncertainty created by the ocean currents is currently much smaller than the uncertainty in the search areas based on fuel burn estimates, etc.
"I’ve extended my betting position overnight on the Tories to secure most votes although not at the 10/1 I got last June.
My reading is that the blues stand to gain most if there’s is seepage from the purples." Mike Smithson ---------------- No seepage, mike, instead more gain and growth for UKIP. I've laid £500 on UKIP to top the EU poll. People are now joining the party in droves.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
From what I've heard, they've been searching locations on two sources of information: possible debris sighted by satellites and estimates of where the plane went down based on estimated fuel burn and the flight corridor calculate by Immarsat.
You could assume that the objects they've spotted with satellites is plane debris and work backwards from there, but there appears to be enough junk in the ocean that it wouldn't tell you too much.
I've found some ocean current observations: cached plot or create your own [God bless the Yanks for making so much data freely available].
Even at their strongest under the storm track the currents are much less than 1 metre per second. Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day.
This implies two things. Firstly, it's not possible for the debris to have drifted very far from the point at which the plane came down. Secondly, the uncertainty created by the ocean currents is currently much smaller than the uncertainty in the search areas based on fuel burn estimates, etc.
The eventual aim of all this it to find as much of the plane as possible, and particularly the black box recorders. The area to be searched is truly vast. As I said passim, AF447 was not found for two years, and that was with debris found after a few days.
Let's take your figures. Say some debris is found on the surface. They believe the ocean current are from (say) 0.75 to 1 metre per second (I doubt they will know it that accurately, or that it is that constant). That gives a variance of 0.25 metres per second, or about 20km a day. Multiply that by the twenty days the plane's been missing, and the variance alone gives a 400 km swathe to search. And that does not even include angular variance in the currents, wind and wave effects (as mentioned by Mr Llama below).
But it still won't get the plane near enough to Diego Garcia to satisfy MrJones ...
I'm quite satisfied that 14 days times 50 km a day wouldn't be far enough.
I think that a fair bit of kipper support takes a similar view, after all according to Kellner only 20% would vote to leave the EU if we had much improved terms (how realistic these terms are is another question).
Quite.
Incidentally I'm not a 'kipper myself, which I can now see I might have implied I was.
Clearly though you have absolutely bugger all negotiating position if you argue for better terms while not being prepared to walk away if you don't get them.
It's like asking the boss for a pay rise. If s/he says No, you have to be prepared to resign more or less there and then. If s/he believes that you will resign, then either the answer's Yes, in which case you've won; or it's still No, in which case you're clearly right to resign because your boss doesn't value your contribution enough to want to keep you.
To expect you'll get a Yes even without arranging an avenue to resign, essentially because you think the boss has poor judgement, and wrongly believes you'll resign even though in fact you can't, imputes considerable naivety to your boss. This presumption of naivety needs to be reconciled with the fact that they, and not you, are the boss.
Similarly, to go into a terms renegotiation, with no shot in the locker other than "Oh, that's disappointing" if nothing is offered, is a dumb way to approach the EU.
Going backwards again, ignoring your chaff, if they're searching in Area A - wherever it might be and rightly or wrongly - then you should be able to guess at the rough area where the plane went down.
That would be interesting.
From what I've heard, they've been searching locations on two sources of information: possible debris sighted by satellites and estimates of where the plane went down based on estimated fuel burn and the flight corridor calculate by Immarsat.
You could assume that the objects they've spotted with satellites is plane debris and work backwards from there, but there appears to be enough junk in the ocean that it wouldn't tell you too much.
I've found some ocean current observations: cached plot or create your own [God bless the Yanks for making so much data freely available].
Even at their strongest under the storm track the currents are much less than 1 metre per second. Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day.
This implies two things. Firstly, it's not possible for the debris to have drifted very far from the point at which the plane came down. Secondly, the uncertainty created by the ocean currents is currently much smaller than the uncertainty in the search areas based on fuel burn estimates, etc.
hmm c. 14 days x 50 km is not that far then
The plane's been missing 20 days.
Ta, that saved me checking. However 20 days x 50 km is still a long way from far enough so it's moot.
One thing to think about: if a fair chunk of the UKIP support is indeed a protest vote that would normally go to the opposition by default, where will they go to if/when they stop protesting?
And just how big is the protest vote aspect of UKIP's current support?
I have no idea and it's a good question. I do think that quite a lot of UKIP's vote is people like me, who are in favour of the EU, but deeply pissed off at the inept way we handle our position and the crap deal.
Britain's membership is crucial to the EU for four reasons: we pay them money, we buy their goods, our presence adds credibility, and if we left, lots of others would do so too - to the point where it might even break up.
Also, the EU would gain nothing from us leaving.
Ergo it is worth a lot to the EU to keep us in. We are however treated as though we were Latvia. We aren't Latvia and we could be a lot more bolshy and get away with it.
I therefore sympathise with some UKIP aims but think theirs is at most a useful negotiating position, and I judge that most of them are not the loonies they appear to be.
I am the only one out of my circle of friends that has a real interest in politics, but the mood I got from them when I did bore them with it in the pub just before Christmas is that most of them were going to vote UKIP (this was the conversation that @Hugh accused me in his passive aggressive way of making up. He really did believe I was inventing working class mates to make a point on here!)
These friends of mine either work in the city or as electricians, plumbers etc.. I work in the betting industry. None of us went to Uni (I did a year in my mid 30s and couldn't stick at it). only two of us have A levels, but everyone does alright for themselves. My friends don't know the finer details of how the EU works, but they don't want uncontrolled immigration, and they like the plain way that Farage talks.
(Most of my mates who are electricians now cant be bothered to do old fashioned electrician work as the Poles have halved their rate. They do high end AV installation, which is much more money for a lot less work)
I would say (well I would do) that my friends are of the more articulate and less chavvy types that you get in Hornchurch, a lot of people I see in pubs, I would have as BNP supporters, but maybe Im being snobby
One thing to think about: if a fair chunk of the UKIP support is indeed a protest vote that would normally go to the opposition by default, where will they go to if/when they stop protesting?
And just how big is the protest vote aspect of UKIP's current support?
I have no idea and it's a good question. I do think that quite a lot of UKIP's vote is people like me, who are in favour of the EU, but deeply pissed off at the inept way we handle our position and the crap deal.
Britain's membership is crucial to the EU for four reasons: we pay them money, we buy their goods, our presence adds credibility, and if we left, lots of others would do so too - to the point where it might even break up.
Also, the EU would gain nothing from us leaving.
Ergo it is worth a lot to the EU to keep us in. We are however treated as though we were Latvia. We aren't Latvia and we could be a lot more bolshy and get away with it.
I therefore sympathise with some UKIP aims but think theirs is at most a useful negotiating position, and I judge that most of them are not the loonies they appear to be.
I am the only one out of my circle of friends that has a real interest in politics, but the mood I got from them when I did bore them with it in the pub just before Christmas is that most of them were going to vote UKIP (this was the conversation that @Hugh accused me in his passive aggressive way of making up. He really did believe I was inventing working class mates to make a point on here!)
These friends of mine either work in the city or as electricians, plumbers etc.. I work in the betting industry. None of us went to Uni (I did a year in my mid 30s and couldn't stick at it). only two of us have A levels, but everyone does alright for themselves. My friends don't know the finer details of how the EU works, but they don't want uncontrolled immigration, and they like the plain way that Farage talks.
(Most of my mates who are electricians now cant be bothered to do old fashioned electrician work as the Poles have halved their rate. They do high end AV installation, which is much more money for a lot less work)
I would say (well I would do) that my friends are of the more articulate and less chavvy types that you get in Hornchurch, a lot of people I see in pubs, I would have as BNP supporters, but maybe Im being snobby
I'd never say that you invented your friends - I welcomed you back on here after your ban (despite our past differences) because you seem a fairly authentic working class voice, something we don't seem to have much on here IMHO.
However you need to be careful about such anecdotes when you are passionate about something. I can imagine friends of mine thinking: "God, I'll say I'm in favour of HS2 just to shut him up!"
One thing to think about: if a fair chunk of the UKIP support is indeed a protest vote that would normally go to the opposition by default, where will they go to if/when they stop protesting?
And just how big is the protest vote aspect of UKIP's current support?
I have no idea and it's a good question. I do think that quite a lot of UKIP's vote is people like me, who are in favour of the EU, but deeply pissed off at the inept way we handle our position and the crap deal.
Britain's membership is crucial to the EU for four reasons: we pay them money, we buy their goods, our presence adds credibility, and if we left, lots of others would do so too - to the point where it might even break up.
Also, the EU would gain nothing from us leaving.
Ergo it is worth a lot to the EU to keep us in. We are however treated as though we were Latvia. We aren't Latvia and we could be a lot more bolshy and get away with it.
I therefore sympathise with some UKIP aims but think theirs is at most a useful negotiating position, and I judge that most of them are not the loonies they appear to be.
I'd never say that you invented your friends - I welcomed you back on here after your ban (despite our past differences) because you seem a fairly authentic working class voice, something we don't seem to have much on here IMHO.
However you need to be careful about such anecdotes when you are passionate about something. I can imagine friends of mine thinking: "God, I'll say I'm in favour of HS2 just to shut him up!"
Ha maybe!
It was @Hugh (where's he gone?) that kept accusing me of "knocking about with sparks" and making it sound as if I was trying to be some kind of Dick van Dyke cockney.. that just showed how out of touch Labour can be about its old voters.. they just don't believe people are like that.
Never said it was you
To be fair, my friends are a bit more politically aware than I made it sound there, just not on anorak level obsession like me. The fact that I went to Brighton Uni as a Mature student to study Humanities as the token lefty out of the group, and came back 18 months later praising Enoch Powell and joining UKIP is a running joke.. "youre one of us now" etc etc
They believe the ocean current are from (say) 0.75 to 1 metre per second (I doubt they will know it that accurately, or that it is that constant).
Satellite observations of surface ocean current are much better than that, and they don't need to assume the current stays constant. Furthermore, away from the storm track, and the inter-tropical convergence zone the ocean currents are really quite low.
As I said below the National Centre for Ocean Forecasting provides forecasts for the Royal Navy. They will have all the time-varying data you'd need to do this calculation. The Met Office does similar sorts of things for atmospheric dispersion.
It would be a lot simpler to do this for the ocean, because the speeds involved are a lot lower, and you don't have to worry about vertical transport either.
The capability is definitely there and while there will of course be some uncertainties I think you are overstating them.
(Most of my mates who are electricians now cant be bothered to do old fashioned electrician work as the Poles have halved their rate. They do high end AV installation, which is much more money for a lot less work)
So they're better off then. Less work for more money, no?
I agree we have too many people in the country, given how long we take to plan and implement housing in this country. I agree a lot of people arriving from outside the EU at worst bear us ill will, and at best plan to take out and not put in. I question the value and wisdom of importing poor people from within the EU.
At the same time, if I were the canonical Polish plumber - I'd be over here too.
It's really an aversion to voting hypocritically that informs my aversion to UKIP. Most things UKIPpers have taken exception to I don't support either. I don't support SSM, but then again, if I were gay I'd probably want to be allowed to get married too. So where do I get off telling other people they shouldn't be allowed to do that which, in their position, I would myself want to do? It's none of my buıʞɔnɟ business anyway what someone does who isn't harming me. Hence in the end I don't really oppose it either.
I reckon a lot of people who appear in those UKIP vote shares are similar. But aside from Labour's institutional intolerance for wealth earned outside the public sector, this is not a censorious or intolerant country. I therefore can't imagine UKIP sweeping to power, or even winning more than two or three seats, by tapping into a popular wave of bilious ill-will.
They believe the ocean current are from (say) 0.75 to 1 metre per second (I doubt they will know it that accurately, or that it is that constant).
Satellite observations of surface ocean current are much better than that, and they don't need to assume the current stays constant. Furthermore, away from the storm track, and the inter-tropical convergence zone the ocean currents are really quite low.
As I said below the National Centre for Ocean Forecasting provides forecasts for the Royal Navy. They will have all the time-varying data you'd need to do this calculation. The Met Office does similar sorts of things for atmospheric dispersion.
It would be a lot simpler to do this for the ocean, because the speeds involved are a lot lower, and you don't have to worry about vertical transport either.
The capability is definitely there and while there will of course be some uncertainties I think you are overstating them.
Fairy nuff. However I think the point still remains: it's a massive area to search, and the longer before we get confirmation of debris, the more uncertainty there will be.
As someone who is evidently far more knowledgeable about this than myself, how much would the recent storms have affected debris tracks? I'd have expected that to be significant.
Goat Simulator comes out in just a few days. For that matter, there's a Kickstarter for Bear Simulator, but I doubt it'll be able to match Goat Simulator.
(Most of my mates who are electricians now cant be bothered to do old fashioned electrician work as the Poles have halved their rate. They do high end AV installation, which is much more money for a lot less work)
So they're better off then. Less work for more money, no?
I agree we have too many people in the country, given how long we take to plan and implement housing in this country. I agree a lot of people arriving from outside the EU at worst bear us ill will, and at best plan to take out and not put in. I question the value and wisdom of importing poor people from within the EU.
At the same time, if I were the canonical Polish plumber - I'd be over here too.
It's really an aversion to voting hypocritically that informs my aversion to UKIP. Most things UKIPpers have taken exception to I don't support either. I don't support SSM, but then again, if I were gay I'd probably want to be allowed to get married too. So where do I get off telling other people they shouldn't be allowed to do that which, in their position, I would myself want to do? It's none of my buıʞɔnɟ business anyway what someone does who isn't harming me. Hence in the end I don't really oppose it either.
I reckon a lot of people who appear in those UKIP vote shares are similar. But aside from Labour's institutional intolerance for wealth earned outside the public sector, this is not a censorious or intolerant country. I therefore can't imagine UKIP sweeping to power, or even winning more than two or three seats, by tapping into a popular wave of bilious ill-will.
Yeah I guess they are earning more for less, although how long this AV fad will last is debatable, and the fall back option is competing in a market where your competitors have fewer overheads. Some are still working on site with 16 people who speak to each other in a foreign language all day. How they would have got on had there not been mass immigration of cheap labour, we will never know
(Most of my mates who are electricians now cant be bothered to do old fashioned electrician work as the Poles have halved their rate. They do high end AV installation, which is much more money for a lot less work)
So they're better off then. Less work for more money, no?
I agree we have too many people in the country, given how long we take to plan and implement housing in this country. I agree a lot of people arriving from outside the EU at worst bear us ill will, and at best plan to take out and not put in. I question the value and wisdom of importing poor people from within the EU.
At the same time, if I were the canonical Polish plumber - I'd be over here too.
It's really an aversion to voting hypocritically that informs my aversion to UKIP. Most things UKIPpers have taken exception to I don't support either. I don't support SSM, but then again, if I were gay I'd probably want to be allowed to get married too. So where do I get off telling other people they shouldn't be allowed to do that which, in their position, I would myself want to do? It's none of my buıʞɔnɟ business anyway what someone does who isn't harming me. Hence in the end I don't really oppose it either.
I reckon a lot of people who appear in those UKIP vote shares are similar. But aside from Labour's institutional intolerance for wealth earned outside the public sector, this is not a censorious or intolerant country. I therefore can't imagine UKIP sweeping to power, or even winning more than two or three seats, by tapping into a popular wave of bilious ill-will.
"It's none of my buıʞɔnɟ business anyway what someone does who isn't harming me."
Is it okay for them to vote against something that harms them?
One thing to think about: if a fair chunk of the UKIP support is indeed a protest vote that would normally go to the opposition by default, where will they go to if/when they stop protesting?
And just how big is the protest vote aspect of UKIP's current support?
I have no idea and it's a good question. I do think that quite a lot of UKIP's vote is people like me, who are in favour of the EU, but deeply pissed off at the inept way we handle our position and the crap deal.
Britain's membership is crucial to the EU for four reasons: we pay them money, we buy their goods, our presence adds credibility, and if we left, lots of others would do so too - to the point where it might even break up.
Also, the EU would gain nothing from us leaving.
Ergo it is worth a lot to the EU to keep us in. We are however treated as though we were Latvia. We aren't Latvia and we could be a lot more bolshy and get away with it.
I therefore sympathise with some UKIP aims but think theirs is at most a useful negotiating position, and I judge that most of them are not the loonies they appear to be.
I'd never say that you invented your friends - I welcomed you back on here after your ban (despite our past differences) because you seem a fairly authentic working class voice, something we don't seem to have much on here IMHO.
However you need to be careful about such anecdotes when you are passionate about something. I can imagine friends of mine thinking: "God, I'll say I'm in favour of HS2 just to shut him up!"
Ha maybe!
It was @Hugh (where's he gone?) that kept accusing me of "knocking about with sparks" and making it sound as if I was trying to be some kind of Dick van Dyke cockney.. that just showed how out of touch Labour can be about its old voters.. they just don't believe people are like that.
Never said it was you
To be fair, my friends are a bit more politically aware than I made it sound there, just not on anorak level obsession like me. The fact that I went to Brighton Uni as a Mature student to study Humanities as the token lefty out of the group, and came back 18 months later praising Enoch Powell and joining UKIP is a running joke.. "youre one of us now" etc etc
Sorry, I should have been clearer - I didn't think you said it was me. I was just agreeing with you. ;-)
That's quite a political journey in a short period. Do you think there's any possibility of making the return journey, and if so, what could prompt it?
(Most of my mates who are electricians now cant be bothered to do old fashioned electrician work as the Poles have halved their rate. They do high end AV installation, which is much more money for a lot less work)
So they're better off then. Less work for more money, no?
I agree we have too many people in the country, given how long we take to plan and implement housing in this country. I agree a lot of people arriving from outside the EU at worst bear us ill will, and at best plan to take out and not put in. I question the value and wisdom of importing poor people from within the EU.
At the same time, if I were the canonical Polish plumber - I'd be over here too.
It's really an aversion to voting hypocritically that informs my aversion to UKIP. Most things UKIPpers have taken exception to I don't support either. I don't support SSM, but then again, if I were gay I'd probably want to be allowed to get married too. So where do I get off telling other people they shouldn't be allowed to do that which, in their position, I would myself want to do? It's none of my buıʞɔnɟ business anyway what someone does who isn't harming me. Hence in the end I don't really oppose it either.
I reckon a lot of people who appear in those UKIP vote shares are similar. But aside from Labour's institutional intolerance for wealth earned outside the public sector, this is not a censorious or intolerant country. I therefore can't imagine UKIP sweeping to power, or even winning more than two or three seats, by tapping into a popular wave of bilious ill-will.
Yeah I guess they are earning more for less, although how long this AV fad will last is debatable, and the fall back option is competing in a market where your competitors have fewer overheads. Some are still working on site with 16 people who speak to each other in a foreign language all day. How they would have got on had there not been mass immigration of cheap labour, we will never know
Are they earning more in total or a higher hourly rate for fewer hours?
Fairy nuff. However I think the point still remains: it's a massive area to search, and the longer before we get confirmation of debris, the more uncertainty there will be.
As someone who is evidently far more knowledgeable about this than myself, how much would the recent storms have affected debris tracks? I'd have expected that to be significant.
It would make a big difference, because any interaction of the storm with the debris field would massively amplify the initial uncertainties in its track.
However, while the possible debris they sighted by satellite recently was far enough south to be caught in recent storms, they are now searching further north. I don't think we can even be sure that the plane reached the storm track. If it didn't then the currents are much weaker there, and the uncertainties in the track of the debris field will be much lower.
I suppose my point is that this uncertainty, the uncertainty in where any debris is now, is much greater than the uncertainty due to ocean current drift.
However you need to be careful about such anecdotes when you are passionate about something. I can imagine friends of mine thinking: "God, I'll say I'm in favour of HS2 just to shut him up!"
Good heavens! Never crossed my mind. Well, almost never. Well, sometimes...
On plumbers, without being a free market zealot, if isam's friends move upmarket and make more money and a Polish plumber takes the lower-end work and earns more money than at home, perhaps sending some home which in turns boosts the Polish economy - well, that's the way the market is supposed to work and everyone involved as well as both countries is better off as a result. The alternative, that they doggedly stick to replacing fuses and the Poles get turned back at the border, isn't really in anyone's interest, with the exception of anyone who just doesn't like seeing foreigners in Britain.
The snag is if isam's friends don't have an upmarket to move to and aren't able to get decent training to help them. They then have a very understandable grumble.
Threatening to leave is not always the most effective negotiating tactic, though it can be sometimes as the late Bob Crow demonstrated. It works best when you have your opposite over a barrell.
Most European politicians take a more consensual and less confrontational style, reflecting their national political and social cultures. This is particularly so for the Scandanavians, Dutch and Germans, who together represent the net contributors to the EU. We would negotiate more effectively if we constructivly engaged with them rather than just spat the dummy and threw the toys out of the pram.
Effective negotiation is based on understanding your opposites position, and a good deal is not beggaring your opponent, but rather finding a deal that is good for both parties. This is likely to be more effective and sustainable in the long run.
I think that a fair bit of kipper support takes a similar view, after all according to Kellner only 20% would vote to leave the EU if we had much improved terms (how realistic these terms are is another question).
Quite.
Incidentally I'm not a 'kipper myself, which I can now see I might have implied I was.
Clearly though you have absolutely bugger all negotiating position if you argue for better terms while not being prepared to walk away if you don't get them.
It's like asking the boss for a pay rise. If s/he says No, you have to be prepared to resign more or less there and then. If s/he believes that you will resign, then either the answer's Yes, in which case you've won; or it's still No, in which case you're clearly right to resign because your boss doesn't value your contribution enough to want to keep you.
To expect you'll get a Yes even without arranging an avenue to resign, essentially because you think the boss has poor judgement, and wrongly believes you'll resign even though in fact you can't, imputes considerable naivety to your boss. This presumption of naivety needs to be reconciled with the fact that they, and not you, are the boss.
Similarly, to go into a terms renegotiation, with no shot in the locker other than "Oh, that's disappointing" if nothing is offered, is a dumb way to approach the EU.
I'll admit to being slightly relieved by that Populus poll - which in itself demonstrates how far Labour have fallen. Looking for positives, after a remorselessly poor month, and a very good Budget by Ozzy, Labour still lead. But that is a thin positive. Time to get to work.
Fairy nuff. However I think the point still remains: it's a massive area to search, and the longer before we get confirmation of debris, the more uncertainty there will be.
As someone who is evidently far more knowledgeable about this than myself, how much would the recent storms have affected debris tracks? I'd have expected that to be significant.
It would make a big difference, because any interaction of the storm with the debris field would massively amplify the initial uncertainties in its track.
However, while the possible debris they sighted by satellite recently was far enough south to be caught in recent storms, they are now searching further north. I don't think we can even be sure that the plane reached the storm track. If it didn't then the currents are much weaker there, and the uncertainties in the track of the debris field will be much lower.
I suppose my point is that this uncertainty, the uncertainty in where any debris is now, is much greater than the uncertainty due to ocean current drift.
Mr. Fett, different people have different tastes. It's not surprising, really. Some people like Kate Bush, some people like getting eaten by the almighty Sarlacc.
I was brought up to be Labour=Good, Conservatives=Bad, but my parents are very much old Labour. They are working class, council house kids that joined trade unions etc, but have nothing in common with the PC correct left wing of today
My Dad is a teacher that like Michael Gove!
Their kind of Labour party is long dead, but until recently, the only option was LD or Con, and I don't believe in them either. So where else to go?
It was reading Enoch Powells famous speech while studying at Brighton, and realising that in the part of the world that my family live, it seemed prophetic, only for the lefty Marxist SWP teachers to tell me that it hadn't happened, that made me realise I wasn't really a lefty.
One lecturer asked me to name one incident if I could of tension caused by mass immigration, and when I said Toxteh riots, Tottenham riots, 7/7, 9/11, Blackburn riots, Stephen Lawrence, he said none were to do with immigration. For me that was the final straw, I just thought they don't want to listen to what they don't want to hear.
If Labour were to campaign to leave the EU, bring back Grammar schools, put the rights and feelings of people whose families have lived here for generations ahead of those of economic migrants, stop all women shortlists, lower taxes, they might get my vote back!
"I’ve extended my betting position overnight on the Tories to secure most votes although not at the 10/1 I got last June.
My reading is that the blues stand to gain most if there’s is seepage from the purples." Mike Smithson ---------------- No seepage, mike, instead more gain and growth for UKIP. I've laid £500 on UKIP to top the EU poll. People are now joining the party in droves.
This morning's UKIP fact The purples have failed to retain their every single princpal authority council by-election they've defended since last year's locals.
F1: Ladbrokes tempt me. They've got a betting without Hamilton/Rosberg market. Vettel at 9/2 looks nice...
Edited extra bit: "An analysis of the times when the teams were doing race preparation suggests Mercedes have an advantage over Red Bull of about 0.4secs a lap, with Ferrari and Force India another 0.6secs further adrift."
I'll admit to being slightly relieved by that Populus poll - which in itself demonstrates how far Labour have fallen. Looking for positives, after a remorselessly poor month, and a very good Budget by Ozzy, Labour still lead. But that is a thin positive. Time to get to work.
Depends what you mean by get to work. I definitely don't think it's as simple as just getting in the media more, because the key Labour figures have been getting in the media plenty. It's just the message they're peddling at the moment is plain ineffective and unpopular.
If anything, I'd actually advise that they shut up for a while until they actually work out what they're for and what they want the Labour Party in this day and age to actually be defined as (in my view, by actually "lurching to the left" if you want to use that terminology, since it seems pretty clear the suggestion of Labour gaining "credibility" by posturing about a surplus has been tested to destruction at this point), rather than annoying people further by constantly parrotting their current vacuous message and giving the impression they just want to be in government for the sake of being in government, rather than to actually do things of principle.
However you need to be careful about such anecdotes when you are passionate about something. I can imagine friends of mine thinking: "God, I'll say I'm in favour of HS2 just to shut him up!"
Good heavens! Never crossed my mind. Well, almost never. Well, sometimes...
On plumbers, without being a free market zealot, if isam's friends move upmarket and make more money and a Polish plumber takes the lower-end work and earns more money than at home, perhaps sending some home which in turns boosts the Polish economy - well, that's the way the market is supposed to work and everyone involved as well as both countries is better off as a result. The alternative, that they doggedly stick to replacing fuses and the Poles get turned back at the border, isn't really in anyone's interest, with the exception of anyone who just doesn't like seeing foreigners in Britain.
The snag is if isam's friends don't have an upmarket to move to and aren't able to get decent training to help them. They then have a very understandable grumble.
The problem will be if this AV (Audio Visual) market is just a bubble, or more likely, that the Polish sparks will rumble there is good money to be made in that, and undercut the market again
But you are right in the free market aspect. If Poles want to live 8 to a house and send money back to Poland in order to undercut British workers, they have the right to do so I guess. Just don't expect to get votes from it if you encourage it!
Kate Bush's music cannot be appreciated through mere words.
Listen to her, she's brilliant.
When the Good Lady Wife recorded her album in the eighties, she used members of Elton John and Kate Bush's bands as her band. Kate Bush has a house a few miles away in south Devon, and the GLW keeps muttering how she "must get back in touch..."
Er, YES!
She seems to have no comprehension just how how much going round for dinner with Kate Bush would deliver all-time Top Trump bragging rights on pb....
Am I weird in that I cannot understand this enthusiasm for Kate Bush? A wailing has-been who was only mildly entertaining the first time round.
Today on pbc I learned that different people have different tastes in music.
There's a hype on. I got an email from a friend the other day asking if I had any joy getting a ticket. I don't even own a Kate Bush record, I think the last time I listened to her music was at a participle lawful university party half a generation ago.
And you're on some kind of backlash. I understand that parts of the modern world frighten and confuse you and you need to lash out from time to time. I dont judge you for it.
Kate Bush's music cannot be appreciated through mere words.
Listen to her, she's brilliant.
When the Good Lady Wife recorded her album in the eighties, she used members of Elton John and Kate Bush's bands as her band. Kate Bush has a house a few miles away in south Devon, and the GLW keeps muttering how she "must get back in touch..."
Er, YES!
She seems to have no comprehension just how how much going round for dinner with Kate Bush would deliver all-time Top Trump bragging rights on pb....
Kate Bush's music cannot be appreciated through mere words.
Listen to her, she's brilliant.
When the Good Lady Wife recorded her album in the eighties, she used members of Elton John and Kate Bush's bands as her band. Kate Bush has a house a few miles away in south Devon, and the GLW keeps muttering how she "must get back in touch..."
Er, YES!
She seems to have no comprehension just how how much going round for dinner with Kate Bush would deliver all-time Top Trump bragging rights on pb....
Can anyone help? For my day job, I want to direct people interested in our animal welfare) issue to an overview of the lists for all the parties in their area, ideally with an email address so they can write to the lead candidate or even all the candidates of the people they're considering supporting and ask them for their views on animal issues.
All I can find is http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/european_elections/candidates2014.html - but this directs people party by party (which means voters needs to make five or more clicks to explore all the options) and some of the links are a bit mysterious - e.g. the Conservative Party list is in .ashx format, which is fine for web developers but likely to baffle the average voter, and the UKIP link doesn't work at all. What I want is a site where I can say "My postcode is ... . Who are my candidates and how can I contact them?"
The snag is if isam's friends don't have an upmarket to move to and aren't able to get decent training to help them. They then have a very understandable grumble.
The other consideration here is that even for something like plumbing, which looks like a manual operation where you need someone on the ground, preventing people who would work for less from coming in doesn't necessarily stop the work going to the foreign worker. If the labour is too expensive, you can instead put money into importing better parts that require less maintenance and less skill. The work is still moving from the domestic worker to the foreign worker, but they're doing it the work somewhere else.
The difference is that when somebody is being out-competed by a foreign worker who lives in a foreign country instead of one who has moved to the same country, they can't see them doing it.
Kate Bush's music cannot be appreciated through mere words.
Listen to her, she's brilliant.
When the Good Lady Wife recorded her album in the eighties, she used members of Elton John and Kate Bush's bands as her band. Kate Bush has a house a few miles away in south Devon, and the GLW keeps muttering how she "must get back in touch..."
Er, YES!
She seems to have no comprehension just how how much going round for dinner with Kate Bush would deliver all-time Top Trump bragging rights on pb....
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
Mr. Fett, for the avoidance of doubt, I have no personal involvement in Goat Simulator, beyond being amused such a thing will soon be available for purchase.
Of course, if people are looking for entertaining things to purchase I can heartily recommend the writings of Thaddeus White (me), available at all good retailers (mostly e-books, though you can buy a physical copy of Sir Edric's Temple at Lulu).
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
See, you're not a proper Tory.
I get a real kick out of playing chess with the homeless and tramps as chess pieces.
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
See, you're not a proper Tory.
I get a real kick out of playing chess with the homeless and tramps as chess pieces.
Mr. Fett, for the avoidance of doubt, I have no personal involvement in Goat Simulator, beyond being amused such a thing will soon be available for purchase.
Of course, if people are looking for entertaining things to purchase I can heartily recommend the writings of Thaddeus White (me), available at all good retailers (mostly e-books, though you can buy a physical copy of Sir Edric's Temple at Lulu).
We chose September 16th. Ideally we would have wanted an earlier one, but due to events the later we leave it, the more likely we are to be able to go. Knowing our luck she'll develop laryngitis on September 15th ...
I thought the hype of Aerial - her first album in 12 years - was big. This tour announcement has been something else.
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
And that's the attitude that drives the working class vote away from Labour
We chose September 16th. Ideally we would have wanted an earlier one, but due to events the later we leave it, the more likely we are to be able to go. Knowing our luck she'll develop laryngitis on September 15th ...
I thought the hype of Aerial - her first album in 12 years - was big. This tour announcement has been something else.
I went for early September, mid September clashes with the Indyref
"The snag is if isam's friends don't have an upmarket to move to and aren't able to get decent training to help them. They then have a very understandable grumble."
What about the next generation, Nick? What about the youngsters just trying to get started? ISAM's friends may be able to move up market but what about their son's and daughters who aren't qualified and can't get training posts because its easier for companies to import Labour than train new people? Do those youngster's have an understandable grumble? If so who in the political world is on their side and going to do anything about it?
Lab 33% (-2) SNP 33% (n/c) Con 13% (-1) Grn 7% (+1) LD 7% (+2)
No statistically significant changes there. All MoE stuff.
I'd love to meet the Scots who vote Labour in Westminster elections, SNP at Holyrood. There are a fair few about.
Housing estates are full of them. I could almost tell you where those kinds of voters live just by looking at the types of houses. In fact, it is exactly these kinds of streets which contain the electors who will decide the outcome of the IndyRef. The astonishing thing is that BT canvassers have yet to even start knocking doors in these areas yet. Yes Scotland are on their 3rd or 4th canvass in the majority of them.
They don't have people to knock doors, they have to rely on e-mails or English call centres.
Precisely.
No backers, beware. (Especially No-backers who don't have a scoobie about Scottish "on-the-ground" politics, which seems to be most of them.)
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
And that's the attitude that drives the working class vote away from Labour
"The snag is if isam's friends don't have an upmarket to move to and aren't able to get decent training to help them. They then have a very understandable grumble."
What about the next generation, Nick? What about the youngsters just trying to get started? ISAM's friends may be able to move up market but what about their son's and daughters who aren't qualified and can't get training posts because its easier for companies to import Labour than train new people? Do those youngster's have an understandable grumble? If so who in the political world is on their side and going to do anything about it?
Was just out jogging and thought exactly that.
My friends are experienced workers in their late 30s who are setting up their own businesses now, most still work on site in the week though to pay the mortgage. What about 17 yr old apprentices? Why employ them when you can get a 40 year old Pole with 20 years experience for not much more?
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
See, you're not a proper Tory.
I get a real kick out of playing chess with the homeless and tramps as chess pieces.
You are just a wet....real Tories burn them.
Wrong, 'pouter.
TSE is providing a jobs guarantee for the long term employed.
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
The rest of the world has grown up, a development that sadly passed you by.
I was brought up by a millionaire family. I spent my early years burning tramps and pissing on the homeless. Daddy pumped millions into the Tory Party and I was taught to look down on the oiks below. Mummy made cakes for the local Tory club and we always entertined the local gentry in our grounds. In fact we used to call the "workers" the "the underlings". I was always taught Tory =Good Labour=Dirty.Anyway, at my fee paying school I asked the headmaster why should we get all the power due to me being lucky that I spouted out of my fathers rather rich totem. He said "any more of that and I will get you beasted". It was the final straw. I haven't voted Tory since.
And that's the attitude that drives the working class vote away from Labour
Oh FFS, where is your sense of humour.
Its right here, but your unfunny attempts at jokes pass it by on a daily basis
Mr. Fett, for the avoidance of doubt, I have no personal involvement in Goat Simulator, beyond being amused such a thing will soon be available for purchase.
Of course, if people are looking for entertaining things to purchase I can heartily recommend the writings of Thaddeus White (me), available at all good retailers (mostly e-books, though you can buy a physical copy of Sir Edric's Temple at Lulu).
I heartily recommend the books of Thaddeus White.
They are enjoyable and great reads.
Seconded. They are all good reads and stupidly cheap. Sir Edric's Temple made me laugh more than any book since the early Tom Sharpe's.
Comments
It gets worse if it was a mid-air explosion (which admittedly looks unlikely) - after Lockerbie large debris was spread over twenty miles, and lighter items were found as far away as Northumberland. Indeed, a critical piece of evidence - a brochure - was found near the east coast in Morpeth, over sixty miles away.
http://www.panamair.org/accidents/lockerbie/trail.jpg
Then again, an uncertain answer would aid the conspiracy theory you're evidently salivating over.
The soufflé is rising nicely.
I cannot begin to tell you how surprised I am to see that it hasn't apparently helped either the Lib Dems or UKIP.
You could assume that the objects they've spotted with satellites is plane debris and work backwards from there, but there appears to be enough junk in the ocean that it wouldn't tell you too much.
I've found some ocean current observations: cached plot or create your own [God bless the Yanks for making so much data freely available].
Even at their strongest under the storm track the currents are much less than 1 metre per second. Thus the currents aren't going to be taking debris any further than about 50km per day.
This implies two things. Firstly, it's not possible for the debris to have drifted very far from the point at which the plane came down. Secondly, the uncertainty created by the ocean currents is currently much smaller than the uncertainty in the search areas based on fuel burn estimates, etc.
The main bout is next Wednesday on BBC2.
Last week's show was restricted to Sky News and a niche radio station.
(But yes, I too share your surprise)
I tried to make a model last year of where I thought UKIP may spring a surprise... Just going off 2010 numbers, with no knowledge of the areas
Cannock Chase at 150s would be worth a poke at a big price, Camborne and Redruth was quite a way down the list but was a possible. SJ only 7/1 though
Correct answer.
Are you going to apologise to the pilot's family for your smear? Are you aware that sick comments such as yours on the previous thread will be causing them pain?
I'm happy to lodge the money with a stakeholder if one of the great and good of the site is prepared to undertake that role.
So much more work needs to be done, the government needs to concentrate their efforts on rebuilding UK supply chains to make domestic parts and labour more attractive to assemblers, and so that we can get exporting again. It's no good having assembly in the UK when 90% of the parts are imported from China or Germany
The UK economy is unbalanced and the recovery has some way to go before it will feed through into the current account.
In better news, business investment is picking up and the index of services was 0.9% against a 0.6% expectation.
Ukip 30 (+4)
Lab 29 (-5)
Con 20 (-2)
LD 10 (+2)
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/us4db58fnm/SunResults_140327_EU_VI.pdf
Mr Farage says most UKIP voters are not ex-Tories, and this is true. But it is also true that they are more likely to be ex-Tories than anything else. For these people, the Conservatives have settled on the message that however much they may like what Nigel has to say, the better UKIP do next May the more likely it is that Her Majesty will have to ask Ed Miliband to form a government.
Of the available options, this is probably the right line to choose. Trying to out-UKIP UKIP would not just be fruitless but counterproductive, given that many wavering potential Tories are former Liberal Democrats. And while some new UKIP supporters are irreconcilable, the preferred election result for Conservative defectors overall is to see their old party back in government. Reminding them that there is only one way to achieve such an outcome must be the right approach.http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/03/vote-ukip-get/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=vote-ukip-get
Britain's membership is crucial to the EU for four reasons: we pay them money, we buy their goods, our presence adds credibility, and if we left, lots of others would do so too - to the point where it might even break up.
Also, the EU would gain nothing from us leaving.
Ergo it is worth a lot to the EU to keep us in. We are however treated as though we were Latvia. We aren't Latvia and we could be a lot more bolshy and get away with it.
I therefore sympathise with some UKIP aims but think theirs is at most a useful negotiating position, and I judge that most of them are not the loonies they appear to be.
Betting PostStill writing it up, but as there's been a delay I thought I'd tip it now, as well as when I post it.
Backed Vettel for pole at 12, hedged at 5. If you prefer, you can go for Ladbrokes at 13, (1/5 odds for each way, top 3).
Given the time since the crash that would mean any floating debris could have travelled the best part of a thousand miles. Of course, the drift would have been increased or decreased by the effect of wind and waves. Such effects may be substantial or trivial but can only really be guessed.
As an undergraduate I did an exercise on just this sort of problem, the mathematics is not really that daunting, especially with computers to do the heavy lifting (which I didn't have), but what you get is an area of probability that is really quite large - in this case, given the elapsed time and the uncertainties of wind and wave conditions, probably in the tens of thousands of square miles. And that is after wreckage has been found.
The open ocean really is a big place. I think it most likely that the main body of the wreckage, the bits that sunk, will never be found and even if the searchers get really, really lucky and find it I am not sure what it would reveal.
Must have been misreported by the Stockholm Chronicle.
Let's take your figures. Say some debris is found on the surface. They believe the ocean current are from (say) 0.75 to 1 metre per second (I doubt they will know it that accurately, or that it is that constant). That gives a variance of 0.25 metres per second, or about 20km a day. Multiply that by the twenty days the plane's been missing, and the variance alone gives a 400 km swathe to search. And that does not even include angular variance in the currents, wind and wave effects (as mentioned by Mr Llama below).
But it still won't get the plane near enough to Diego Garcia to satisfy MrJones ...
This is the position of the Tories, and even Nick Clegg was advocating reform on Wednesday. Who of the other 80% would not support improved terms?
My reading is that the blues stand to gain most if there’s is seepage from the purples."
Mike Smithson
----------------
No seepage, mike, instead more gain and growth for UKIP. I've laid £500 on UKIP to top the EU poll. People are now joining the party in droves.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/malaysia-pre-qualifying.html
Incidentally I'm not a 'kipper myself, which I can now see I might have implied I was.
Clearly though you have absolutely bugger all negotiating position if you argue for better terms while not being prepared to walk away if you don't get them.
It's like asking the boss for a pay rise. If s/he says No, you have to be prepared to resign more or less there and then. If s/he believes that you will resign, then either the answer's Yes, in which case you've won; or it's still No, in which case you're clearly right to resign because your boss doesn't value your contribution enough to want to keep you.
To expect you'll get a Yes even without arranging an avenue to resign, essentially because you think the boss has poor judgement, and wrongly believes you'll resign even though in fact you can't, imputes considerable naivety to your boss. This presumption of naivety needs to be reconciled with the fact that they, and not you, are the boss.
Similarly, to go into a terms renegotiation, with no shot in the locker other than "Oh, that's disappointing" if nothing is offered, is a dumb way to approach the EU.
These friends of mine either work in the city or as electricians, plumbers etc.. I work in the betting industry. None of us went to Uni (I did a year in my mid 30s and couldn't stick at it). only two of us have A levels, but everyone does alright for themselves. My friends don't know the finer details of how the EU works, but they don't want uncontrolled immigration, and they like the plain way that Farage talks.
(Most of my mates who are electricians now cant be bothered to do old fashioned electrician work as the Poles have halved their rate. They do high end AV installation, which is much more money for a lot less work)
I would say (well I would do) that my friends are of the more articulate and less chavvy types that you get in Hornchurch, a lot of people I see in pubs, I would have as BNP supporters, but maybe Im being snobby
However you need to be careful about such anecdotes when you are passionate about something. I can imagine friends of mine thinking: "God, I'll say I'm in favour of HS2 just to shut him up!"
It was @Hugh (where's he gone?) that kept accusing me of "knocking about with sparks" and making it sound as if I was trying to be some kind of Dick van Dyke cockney.. that just showed how out of touch Labour can be about its old voters.. they just don't believe people are like that.
Never said it was you
To be fair, my friends are a bit more politically aware than I made it sound there, just not on anorak level obsession like me. The fact that I went to Brighton Uni as a Mature student to study Humanities as the token lefty out of the group, and came back 18 months later praising Enoch Powell and joining UKIP is a running joke.. "youre one of us now" etc etc
As I said below the National Centre for Ocean Forecasting provides forecasts for the Royal Navy. They will have all the time-varying data you'd need to do this calculation. The Met Office does similar sorts of things for atmospheric dispersion.
It would be a lot simpler to do this for the ocean, because the speeds involved are a lot lower, and you don't have to worry about vertical transport either.
The capability is definitely there and while there will of course be some uncertainties I think you are overstating them.
Unless you have one spare ticket.
In which case I love you.
Sadly, no spares.
I agree we have too many people in the country, given how long we take to plan and implement housing in this country. I agree a lot of people arriving from outside the EU at worst bear us ill will, and at best plan to take out and not put in. I question the value and wisdom of importing poor people from within the EU.
At the same time, if I were the canonical Polish plumber - I'd be over here too.
It's really an aversion to voting hypocritically that informs my aversion to UKIP. Most things UKIPpers have taken exception to I don't support either. I don't support SSM, but then again, if I were gay I'd probably want to be allowed to get married too. So where do I get off telling other people they shouldn't be allowed to do that which, in their position, I would myself want to do? It's none of my buıʞɔnɟ business anyway what someone does who isn't harming me. Hence in the end I don't really oppose it either.
I reckon a lot of people who appear in those UKIP vote shares are similar. But aside from Labour's institutional intolerance for wealth earned outside the public sector, this is not a censorious or intolerant country. I therefore can't imagine UKIP sweeping to power, or even winning more than two or three seats, by tapping into a popular wave of bilious ill-will.
As someone who is evidently far more knowledgeable about this than myself, how much would the recent storms have affected debris tracks? I'd have expected that to be significant.
There seem to be a fair few Argo floats in that area.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvWGLcdI8o8
Goat Simulator comes out in just a few days. For that matter, there's a Kickstarter for Bear Simulator, but I doubt it'll be able to match Goat Simulator.
Is it okay for them to vote against something that harms them?
That's quite a political journey in a short period. Do you think there's any possibility of making the return journey, and if so, what could prompt it?
However, while the possible debris they sighted by satellite recently was far enough south to be caught in recent storms, they are now searching further north. I don't think we can even be sure that the plane reached the storm track. If it didn't then the currents are much weaker there, and the uncertainties in the track of the debris field will be much lower.
I suppose my point is that this uncertainty, the uncertainty in where any debris is now, is much greater than the uncertainty due to ocean current drift.
On plumbers, without being a free market zealot, if isam's friends move upmarket and make more money and a Polish plumber takes the lower-end work and earns more money than at home, perhaps sending some home which in turns boosts the Polish economy - well, that's the way the market is supposed to work and everyone involved as well as both countries is better off as a result. The alternative, that they doggedly stick to replacing fuses and the Poles get turned back at the border, isn't really in anyone's interest, with the exception of anyone who just doesn't like seeing foreigners in Britain.
The snag is if isam's friends don't have an upmarket to move to and aren't able to get decent training to help them. They then have a very understandable grumble.
There could be a lot of money on this
Most European politicians take a more consensual and less confrontational style, reflecting their national political and social cultures. This is particularly so for the Scandanavians, Dutch and Germans, who together represent the net contributors to the EU. We would negotiate more effectively if we constructivly engaged with them rather than just spat the dummy and threw the toys out of the pram.
Effective negotiation is based on understanding your opposites position, and a good deal is not beggaring your opponent, but rather finding a deal that is good for both parties. This is likely to be more effective and sustainable in the long run.
Looking for positives, after a remorselessly poor month, and a very good Budget by Ozzy, Labour still lead.
But that is a thin positive.
Time to get to work.
No problem!
I was brought up to be Labour=Good, Conservatives=Bad, but my parents are very much old Labour. They are working class, council house kids that joined trade unions etc, but have nothing in common with the PC correct left wing of today
My Dad is a teacher that like Michael Gove!
Their kind of Labour party is long dead, but until recently, the only option was LD or Con, and I don't believe in them either. So where else to go?
It was reading Enoch Powells famous speech while studying at Brighton, and realising that in the part of the world that my family live, it seemed prophetic, only for the lefty Marxist SWP teachers to tell me that it hadn't happened, that made me realise I wasn't really a lefty.
One lecturer asked me to name one incident if I could of tension caused by mass immigration, and when I said Toxteh riots, Tottenham riots, 7/7, 9/11, Blackburn riots, Stephen Lawrence, he said none were to do with immigration. For me that was the final straw, I just thought they don't want to listen to what they don't want to hear.
If Labour were to campaign to leave the EU, bring back Grammar schools, put the rights and feelings of people whose families have lived here for generations ahead of those of economic migrants, stop all women shortlists, lower taxes, they might get my vote back!
The purples have failed to retain their every single princpal authority council by-election they've defended since last year's locals.
That's a party on the move!!
Edited extra bit: "An analysis of the times when the teams were doing race preparation suggests Mercedes have an advantage over Red Bull of about 0.4secs a lap, with Ferrari and Force India another 0.6secs further adrift."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26781400
If anything, I'd actually advise that they shut up for a while until they actually work out what they're for and what they want the Labour Party in this day and age to actually be defined as (in my view, by actually "lurching to the left" if you want to use that terminology, since it seems pretty clear the suggestion of Labour gaining "credibility" by posturing about a surplus has been tested to destruction at this point), rather than annoying people further by constantly parrotting their current vacuous message and giving the impression they just want to be in government for the sake of being in government, rather than to actually do things of principle.
Kate Bush's music cannot be appreciated through mere words.
Listen to her, she's brilliant.
But you are right in the free market aspect. If Poles want to live 8 to a house and send money back to Poland in order to undercut British workers, they have the right to do so I guess. Just don't expect to get votes from it if you encourage it!
Er, YES!
She seems to have no comprehension just how how much going round for dinner with Kate Bush would deliver all-time Top Trump bragging rights on pb....
I don't even own a Kate Bush record, I think the last time I listened to her music was at a participle lawful university party half a generation ago.
Irwin Mitchell blows £5m on a case management system... that was designed for airline baggage
http://www.rollonfriday.com/TheNews/EuropeNews/tabid/58/Id/3236/fromTab/58/currentIndex/2/Default.aspx
*did you see what I did there?
All I can find is http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/european_elections/candidates2014.html - but this directs people party by party (which means voters needs to make five or more clicks to explore all the options) and some of the links are a bit mysterious - e.g. the Conservative Party list is in .ashx format, which is fine for web developers but likely to baffle the average voter, and the UKIP link doesn't work at all. What I want is a site where I can say "My postcode is ... . Who are my candidates and how can I contact them?"
Modern world? Kate Bush?
The difference is that when somebody is being out-competed by a foreign worker who lives in a foreign country instead of one who has moved to the same country, they can't see them doing it.
Of course, if people are looking for entertaining things to purchase I can heartily recommend the writings of Thaddeus White (me), available at all good retailers (mostly e-books, though you can buy a physical copy of Sir Edric's Temple at Lulu).
I get a real kick out of playing chess with the homeless and tramps as chess pieces.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/27/scottish-banks-warned-independence
They are enjoyable and great reads.
I thought the hype of Aerial - her first album in 12 years - was big. This tour announcement has been something else.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK9IR9gmCHw
New Ladbrokes prices: North East Fife
LD 2/7 (from 1/4)
SNP 5/1
Con 10/1 (from 16/1)
Lab 10/1
http://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/images/localworld/ugc-images/275791/Article/images/18618135/4727549.jpg
"The snag is if isam's friends don't have an upmarket to move to and aren't able to get decent training to help them. They then have a very understandable grumble."
What about the next generation, Nick? What about the youngsters just trying to get started? ISAM's friends may be able to move up market but what about their son's and daughters who aren't qualified and can't get training posts because its easier for companies to import Labour than train new people? Do those youngster's have an understandable grumble? If so who in the political world is on their side and going to do anything about it?
No backers, beware. (Especially No-backers who don't have a scoobie about Scottish "on-the-ground" politics, which seems to be most of them.)
It is also the most sensible assessment of the EU angle that I've seen, and on the currency union idea and how it interacts with the EU.
It beggars belief that the SNP didn't think about all these issues in advance.
My friends are experienced workers in their late 30s who are setting up their own businesses now, most still work on site in the week though to pay the mortgage. What about 17 yr old apprentices? Why employ them when you can get a 40 year old Pole with 20 years experience for not much more?
TSE is providing a jobs guarantee for the long term employed.
Perhaps you misunderstood what he meant by pawn?