Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Where do we go from here and

13567

Comments

  • So now I understand. The wealthy only send Tarquin and Jemima to private schools out of the kindness of their hearts, so as to save the taxpayer the cost of educating the little darlings.

    There are very many ordinary working people who send their children to private school making huge sacrifices. They would not class themselves as the left snear 'weathy'
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Labour may be able to try to undermine the Private education sector by withdrawing various financial incentives/tax advantages. I can see that banning them outright would present serious legal complications. Wouldn’t they have to in effect ban all forms of regular schooling outside of the state sector - including, for example, home schooling?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    Mrs Thatcher was the Education Secretary in Heath's government.
    She had to follow Heath's orders though unlike when she was PM
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364

    You've got that back to front. They are obliged to offer bursaries and scholarships in order to retain their charitable status. Nothing to do with 'charity'.
    Actually, you're both wrong. Private schools offer bursaries and scholarships to very able students to drive up results and make themselves more attractive to parents. And that applies to both charitable AND corporate foundations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2019

    Since the Deltapoll UK poll was the last one so far, I have missed HYUFD's comment on it.

    Still a Tory lead and still a possible Tory government with the DUP or else Swinson Kingmaker and refusing to vote for a Corbyn Premiership
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    alex. said:

    It may be more that women with science backgrounds are likely to have considerable experience of male dominated environments, and are therefore far more prepared for and/or willing to enter the political arena.

    I think that is correct.

    Less so now, but in the era of Thatcher & Merkel, scientific research environments would have been overwhelmingly male-dominated.
  • alex. said:

    Labour may be able to try to undermine the Private education sector by withdrawing various financial incentives/tax advantages. I can see that banning them outright would present serious legal complications. Wouldn’t they have to in effect ban all forms of regular schooling outside of the state sector - including, for example, home schooling?

    Probably and of course it would be England only.

    Education is devolved to Scotland and Wales
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Byronic said:

    I agree. Do not abolish. But strip them of their charitable status. Why should a tax paying nurse in Swansea subsidise billionaire parents who send their kids to Eton?
    They don't, they subsidise bright children from Swansea who might get a scholarship to Eton
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited September 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Actually, you're both wrong. Private schools offer bursaries and scholarships to very able students to drive up results and make themselves more attractive to parents. And that applies to both charitable AND corporate foundations.
    There's a certain amount of truth in that. Westminster, Eton and St Paul's
    all claim that they're gradually attempting to make themselves fully "needs-blind" , for instance.

    Abolishing the assisted places scheme was also an error if the schools themselves were going to be retained ; it just lowered the social mix in these schools for two decades.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364

    Probably and of course it would be England only.

    Education is devolved to Scotland and Wales
    Hardly a major issues in Wales though, is it? If I list private schools in Wales I come up with Llandaff, Monmouth, Monmouth Haberdasher, Christ's College Brecon, St David's Colwyn, Llandovery and then I start struggling.
  • HYUFD said:

    She had to follow Heath's orders though unlike when she was PM
    If she didn't agree with the policy she would have resigned from Cabinet. But she embraced it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I am sure you are right and it will not just be conservatives taking a hit, I would expect labour to suffer greatly as well
    Very few Labour seats obviously at risk to LDs - indeed Sheffield Hallam is possibly the only likely loss.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Byronic said:

    Driving rich pushy parents into the state sector is inherently a good thing. They will raise the game of state schools. Do it.

    I also see no reason why I, as a taxpayer, should subsidise Eton, Westminster and Harrow.
    Rich, pushy parents if their kids have to go state will send their children to either grammar schools and free schools or outstanding Comprehensive schools or Academies, they are not going to send their kids to the bog standard comp down the road
  • ydoethur said:

    Actually, you're both wrong. Private schools offer bursaries and scholarships to very able students to drive up results and make themselves more attractive to parents. And that applies to both charitable AND corporate foundations.
    The lack of knowledge from those envious of public schools is unsurprising

    Public sector good

    Private sector bad (no very bad)
  • HYUFD said:

    They don't, they subsidise bright children from Swansea who might get a scholarship to Eton
    Bozo, Moggster and Cammo have all lost the Swansea accent.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189

    She stole my milk :(
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364
    HYUFD said:



    Rich, pushy parents if their kids have to go state will send their children to either grammar schools and free schools or outstanding Comprehensive schools or Academies, they are not going to send their kids to the bog standard comp down the road

    Even Corbyn didn't, although he blamed his ex-wife as I recall.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    justin124 said:

    Very few Labour seats obviously at risk to LDs - indeed Sheffield Hallam is possibly the only likely loss.
    Speaking of which - I assume that it has been noted on here that Jared O’Mara has discovered he doesn’t quite fancy taking a crown sinecure quite yet...?

  • justin124 said:

    Very few Labour seats obviously at risk to LDs - indeed Sheffield Hallam is possibly the only likely loss.
    Justin.

    I admire your blind loyalty but the fact is labour will lose some London seats to the lib dems and leave voting seats to the conservatives. And most all of their Scottish seats to the SNP and some Welsh seats

    Labour are in a very grim place at present
  • The lack of knowledge from those envious of public schools is unsurprising

    Public sector good

    Private sector bad (no very bad)
    No.

    Social justice and equality of opportunity good

    Buying an advantage and entrenching privilege bad
  • ydoethur said:

    Hardly a major issues in Wales though, is it? If I list private schools in Wales I come up with Llandaff, Monmouth, Monmouth Haberdasher, Christ's College Brecon, St David's Colwyn, Llandovery and then I start struggling.
    Rydal Penrhos here in Colwyn Bay
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    #BullocksToBrexit
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Rich, pushy parents if their kids have to go state will send their children to either grammar schools and free schools or outstanding Comprehensive schools or Academies, they are not going to send their kids to the bog standard comp down the road
    To be fair I think rich pushy parents do that already (especially grammar schools) if their children are smart enough to get in. Private school is often the backup.

    Just out of interest - is Labour advocating boarding schools in the state sector? Are there any at the moment? As pointed out above many of the elite public schools won’t exactly fit in very well in the state sector.

  • No.

    Social justice and equality of opportunity good

    Buying an advantage and entrenching privilege bad
    =Venezeula
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486
    So May did deliver something out of ‘strong and stable’.....

    Meanwhile, the Diophantine solution for 42 has been arrived at:
    https://phys.org/news/2019-09-sum-cubes-solvedusing-real-life.html
  • Interesting to see HYUFD and Big_G_NorthWales on the same side of an argument.

    A timely reminder that Tories who disagree with Bozo over Brexit are still Tories through and through.
  • If labour do abolish private education they will need to find the money to build a lot more schools and employ the teachers required to house 7% extra pupils in the state system. Good luck with that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364

    Rydal Penrhos here in Colwyn Bay
    Apparently there are 30, far more than I realised. Should have got Ruthin. Amazed to find there's one in Llanelli!

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/education/private-school-independent-wales-cardiff-15516098
  • Interesting to see HYUFD and Big_G_NorthWales on the same side of an argument.

    A timely reminder that Tories who disagree with Bozo over Brexit are still Tories through and through.

    Ex Brexit we are one nation conservatives and post brexit that is the only way the party will heal
  • All hell will break loose, metaphorically, if they do.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The idea that you declare a theoretical national emergency to make sure the country enters an actual national emergency is, er, interesting.
  • If labour do abolish private education they will need to find the money to build a lot more schools and employ the teachers required to house 7% extra pupils in the state system. Good luck with that.

    They will destroy a lot of extremely good world-beating schools that add a huge amount to our economy and society here.

    The solution isn't to abolish or ban them. It's to broaden access through scholarships and bursaries which the state should also help provide.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,050

    Since James was being discussed earlier..

    https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/1170756744282169344?s=20
    No cheating in the ashes though
    Byronic said:

    Abolishing them is absurd and punitive. There is, however, a good case to be made for stripping private schools of their charitable status, and giving the proceeds to the state sector. I can certainly see a Labour govt doing THAT.
    That will kill most of them and cost state a fortune anyway
  • It is going to anyway sadly
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    No.

    Social justice and equality of opportunity good

    Buying an advantage and entrenching privilege bad
    Bollocks

    My son has dyslexia and Aspergers.

    Mainstream failed him utterly.

    He went to a private school which cost the state exactly what they were saying his costs were in mainstream.

    Of course the state refused to do anything that might actually, you know help him - until they were dragged into doing it at a fair cost to my family financially but even more so emotionally.

    I even had to threaten them with a judicial revue at one stage.

    My son has gone from a broken, anxious wreck who the state system told me would fall ever further behind and would never be able to write.

    We now have a wonderful young man happy add enjoying life, who can write and did ok in his exams considering the lost time and the issues he has to contend with.

    So, with the greatest respect those of you who would seek to deny him and others like him that chance can feck right off.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Justin.

    I admire your blind loyalty but the fact is labour will lose some London seats to the lib dems and leave voting seats to the conservatives. And most all of their Scottish seats to the SNP and some Welsh seats

    Labour are in a very grim place at present
    Loyalty is not an issue for me here - particularly in respect of an election at which I will effectively abstain by spoiling my ballot paper. In London the only Labour seat at all likely to be at risk to the LDs is Southwark & Bermondsey, but in realty that has become unlikely due to Simon Hughes not standing again.Labour is not doing well at present , but 3 of last night's polls only show a 3% Tory lead implying very few losses to the Tories even before taking account of first time incumbency in several of the seats concerned.Labour is far better placed than at the outset of the 2017 campaign when it faced Tory leads of 20% - 25%.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,053
    More desperation from Bozo and his Puppet Master.

    They really are delusional.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    Does anyone know - is there a betting market on whether Boris Johnson will be in prison by the end of the year?
  • Byronic said:

    I agree. Do not abolish. But strip them of their charitable status. Why should a tax paying nurse in Swansea subsidise billionaire parents who send their kids to Eton?
    Because they are not a profit making business generating returns to shareholders. They are educating children, a charitable activity. If you made that tax liable - which it shouldn't be - you'd also need to make donating to charities that seek to find education in poor deprived parts of Africa also tax liable.

    Its effect would simply be to raise fees, make the schools even more the preserve of the well off, make them more exclusive, close schools and load additional children into the state system.

    It would actually cost the Exchequer money.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Although I quite like the optics of BoZo making the argument that Brexit is a National Emergency.

    So, maybe we should cancel it perhaps?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I still think Boris may arrange for Corbyn to sign the extension.
  • No.

    Social justice and equality of opportunity good

    Buying an advantage and entrenching privilege bad
    No.

    Academic excellence and the right of parents to choose how to educate their own children = Good

    Ham-fisted levelling-down and contempt for excellence = Bad
  • justin124 said:

    Loyalty is not an issue for me here - particularly in respect of an election at which I will effectively abstain by spoiling my ballot paper. In London the only Labour seat at all likely to be at risk to the LDs is Southwark & Bermondsey, but in realty that has become unlikely due to Simon Hughes not standing again.Labour is not doing well at present , but 3 of last night's polls only show a 3% Tory lead implying very few losses to the Tories even before taking account of first time incumbency in several of the seats concerned.Labour is far better placed than at the outset of the 2017 campaign when it faced Tory leads of 20% - 25%.
    You have such a belief in first term incumbency and that history will repeat itself

    I do not believe either will happen in these extraordinary times.

    The rule book has been torn up

  • There are very many ordinary working people who send their children to private school making huge sacrifices. They would not class themselves as the left snear 'weathy'
    Even with huge sacrifices, the vast majority of the public cannot afford private school.
  • Floater said:

    Bollocks

    My son has dyslexia and Aspergers.

    Mainstream failed him utterly.

    He went to a private school which cost the state exactly what they were saying his costs were in mainstream.

    Of course the state refused to do anything that might actually, you know help him - until they were dragged into doing it at a fair cost to my family financially but even more so emotionally.

    I even had to threaten them with a judicial revue at one stage.

    My son has gone from a broken, anxious wreck who the state system told me would fall ever further behind and would never be able to write.

    We now have a wonderful young man happy add enjoying life, who can write and did ok in his exams considering the lost time and the issues he has to contend with.

    So, with the greatest respect those of you who would seek to deny him and others like him that chance can feck right off.

    Distressing to hear about your family's experience. Of course there should be quality specialist education for those who need it within the state sector.
  • nico67 said:

    More desperation from Bozo and his Puppet Master.

    They really are delusional.
    Oh yeah?

    “If we only went by precedent, manifestly nothing would ever change."

    --- John Bercow
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7440897/Labour-revive-Theresa-Mays-Brexit-deal-John-McDonnell-says.html

    Thinking more about this - perhaps our Labour friends can explain why they couldn't support this at the time and we could have avoided all this anguish.

    But then again, what would we talk about? .....
  • Chris said:

    Does anyone know - is there a betting market on whether Boris Johnson will be in prison by the end of the year?
    Maybe that is what he wants. Martyred for the cause by the elite
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Justin.

    I admire your blind loyalty but the fact is labour will lose some London seats to the lib dems and leave voting seats to the conservatives. And most all of their Scottish seats to the SNP and some Welsh seats

    Labour are in a very grim place at present
    No Big G. Labour will not lose a single seat to the LDs in London. Maybe Hallam but I am not that sure. Bermondsey was a throwback to 1983 and a vicious by-election between Hughes and Tatchell. But Hughes majority progressively fell and finally he lost thanks to the coalition. By the way, Coyle, the current MP, supported Owen Smith in the 2017 leadership election.
  • Statistical draw for Swinson really, but you'd think she'd be romping ahead with les femmes, especially since Ruth the hearthrob of the centrists is wiv da angels now.

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1170744021544833024?s=20

    We continue to hear a lot of sledging on Ruth Davidson and how crap she is from Scottish Nationalists.

    One has to wonder why.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    No.

    Social justice and equality of opportunity good

    Buying an advantage and entrenching privilege bad
    No equality of opportunity and social mobility bad according to Corbyn Labour, equality of outcome better so the good has to be closed to ensuring everything is equally bad

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/11/corbyn-ditch-social-mobility
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364

    Distressing to hear about your family's experience. Of course there should be quality specialist education for those who need it within the state sector.
    Or alternatively, a max class size of 15 in the state sector.

    That would solve so many different problems it's actually frightening.

    But it would be very expensive so it will never happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    Bozo, Moggster and Cammo have all lost the Swansea accent.
    Heseltine went to Shrewsbury from Swansea
  • Chris said:

    Does anyone know - is there a betting market on whether Boris Johnson will be in prison by the end of the year?
    HYUFD has already claimed that's part of the master plan to turn Boris into the Nelson Mandela of Brexit.
  • blueblue said:

    No.

    Academic excellence and the right of parents to choose how to educate their own children = Good

    Ham-fisted levelling-down and contempt for excellence = Bad
    Please explain how my parents had the same choices open to David Cameron's folks.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,053
    edited September 2019
    If parliament has been prorogued they must return within 5 days to scrutinize any emergency regulations under the CCA.

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    You have such a belief in first term incumbency and that history will repeat itself

    I do not believe either will happen in these extraordinary times.

    The rule book has been torn up

    I agree that the rule book has been torn up. The Lds could take around Camden and Kilburn and St Pancras quite easily. If 97 taught us anything it is that massive majorities can be overturned if the public turn.
    Sam Gymiahs seat around Tandridge for example could quite easily go Yellow as could Sutton and Cheam and also Stephen Hammonds seat around Merton.
    That is why i keep asking where any GE seat spread markets are?
  • No Big G. Labour will not lose a single seat to the LDs in London. Maybe Hallam but I am not that sure. Bermondsey was a throwback to 1983 and a vicious by-election between Hughes and Tatchell. But Hughes majority progressively fell and finally he lost thanks to the coalition. By the way, Coyle, the current MP, supported Owen Smith in the 2017 leadership election.
    We will see shortly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    No Big G. Labour will not lose a single seat to the LDs in London. Maybe Hallam but I am not that sure. Bermondsey was a throwback to 1983 and a vicious by-election between Hughes and Tatchell. But Hughes majority progressively fell and finally he lost thanks to the coalition. By the way, Coyle, the current MP, supported Owen Smith in the 2017 leadership election.
    Cambridge and Leeds NW will also go LD, as may Oxford East and Kensington and Battersea
  • Please explain how my parents had the same choices open to David Cameron's folks.
    So your answer is to confiscate weath and ambition
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2019
    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7440897/Labour-revive-Theresa-Mays-Brexit-deal-John-McDonnell-says.html

    Thinking more about this - perhaps our Labour friends can explain why they couldn't support this at the time and we could have avoided all this anguish.

    But then again, what would we talk about? .....

    Actually, Labour did support that at the time (admittedly, as just one of their approx 6,587 positions on Brexit throughout the year). Most Labour MPs, including McDonnell and Corbyn, voted several times to put forward Theresa May's deal in a referendum against Remain (the 'Kyle/Wilson Amendment')
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364
    HYUFD said:

    Heseltine went to Shrewsbury from Swansea

    I did that once. It's a lovely run over the Central Wales.

    Oh sorry, you meant educationally?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    They will destroy a lot of extremely good world-beating schools that add a huge amount to our economy and society here.

    The solution isn't to abolish or ban them. It's to broaden access through scholarships and bursaries which the state should also help provide.
    Well said
  • HYUFD said:

    No equality of opportunity and social mobility bad according to Corbyn Labour, equality of outcome better so the good has to be closed to ensuring everything is equally bad

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/11/corbyn-ditch-social-mobility
    That is a very interesting subject.


    I believe that everyone should have equal reward for achieving their potential. Having innate ability is an accident of birth, so why reward it?

    However, everyone should have:

    An equal chance of achieving their full potential

    Only be rewarded with 'standard income' if they put the graft in to get there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,050
    Byronic said:

    Because I have to pay more tax to make up for the tax not paid by Eton College
    Don't be stupid you save a fortune not having to fund all those private pupils education, what a turnip.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019
    alex. said:

    Labour may be able to try to undermine the Private education sector by withdrawing various financial incentives/tax advantages. I can see that banning them outright would present serious legal complications. Wouldn’t they have to in effect ban all forms of regular schooling outside of the state sector - including, for example, home schooling?

    Any attempt to "abolish" private schools would go to the European Court for Human Rights (and would likely be against EU law, too....)

    EDIT: And I am pretty sure Labour would lose. So they won't do it. This is a red meat decoy for the ravening socialist hordes.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    So your answer is to confiscate weath and ambition
    2 things

    A clear example of how socialists see the world, everyone has to be dragged down to a common level.

    Second point related to the first, how comes so many socialists send or have sent their kids to private school?

  • Floater said:

    Bollocks

    My son has dyslexia and Aspergers.

    Mainstream failed him utterly.

    He went to a private school which cost the state exactly what they were saying his costs were in mainstream.

    Of course the state refused to do anything that might actually, you know help him - until they were dragged into doing it at a fair cost to my family financially but even more so emotionally.

    I even had to threaten them with a judicial revue at one stage.

    My son has gone from a broken, anxious wreck who the state system told me would fall ever further behind and would never be able to write.

    We now have a wonderful young man happy add enjoying life, who can write and did ok in his exams considering the lost time and the issues he has to contend with.

    So, with the greatest respect those of you who would seek to deny him and others like him that chance can feck right off.

    I totally agree. I have just retired from a private school which wasn't an Eton or Harrow by any means. We had students come to us the majority of whom were dyslexic etc and suffered from ADHD. The fees weren't cheap but we offered an education which they weren't getting in the state system due to lack of money and large class sizes. Our smaller class sizes meant we could cater for the students needs more easily and they achieved very creditable GCSE and A level/BTEC grades at the end. The majority of parents weren't well off so had to make many sacrifices throughout.
  • We continue to hear a lot of sledging on Ruth Davidson and how crap she is from Scottish Nationalists.

    One has to wonder why.
    Boris Johnson has a big problem with women. He’s doing nothing to address it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Please explain how my parents had the same choices open to David Cameron's folks.
    So, its all about envy?

  • So your answer is to confiscate weath and ambition
    Grammar schools are a useful compromise within the State Sector.
  • So your answer is to confiscate weath and ambition
    Oh, so sorry. I forgot that us working class folks aren't allowed to have ambition. That is the preserve of our betters.

    I must apologise for having the temerity to pass my A Levels and go to a Russell Group university. Should have gone down the pit.
  • HYUFD said:

    No equality of opportunity and social mobility bad according to Corbyn Labour, equality of outcome better so the good has to be closed to ensuring everything is equally bad

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/11/corbyn-ditch-social-mobility
    Monarchy = Socialism!
  • I totally agree. we could cater for the students needs more easily and they achieved very creditable GCSE and A level/BTEC grades at the end. The majority of parents weren't well off so had to make many sacrifices throughout.
    Am currently going through that process with my own son...currently excluded from mainstream school due to challenging behaviour, which his current headteacher describes as the worst she's seen in 30 years of teaching. Elder siblings completed A levels, passed all GCSE and are excelling in state schools. He is currently receiving NO eductaion whatsover and hasn't done since May.

    He has his EHCP but the council claim that 2 days at a farm school, patting ponies and playing with guinea pigs meets his needs. We have found a perfect place for him in a special school run by a charity which is 10 miles up the road but out of county and because it's out of county they refuse to enter the school in to his EHCP and are determined to send him back to mainstream.

    He is NINE. He will not have the opportunity when he's older to look back on his childhood as a happy time...thanks to Tory SEN cuts, he has, in effect, lost his childhood.
  • Statistical draw for Swinson really, but you'd think she'd be romping ahead with les femmes, especially since Ruth the hearthrob of the centrists is wiv da angels now.

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1170744021544833024?s=20

    Young women were particularly hard hit by the Coalition and in 2015 are the most anti-Tory/pro-Labour demographic.

    Whether it is more loyalty to Labour, or anti-Coalition I'm not sure, but the strength of Labour support relative to the Lib Dems among women doesn't surprise me.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    You have such a belief in first term incumbency and that history will repeat itself

    I do not believe either will happen in these extraordinary times.

    The rule book has been torn up

    First term incumbency is pretty well established - indeed we saw clear evidence of if as far back as the 1964 election when the Tories managed to hang on to quite a few of the seats gained in 1959 despite a national pro-Labour swing of 3.5%. More recently its influence was very evident at the 2015 and 2017 elections. Seats gained by the Tories - against the tiny pro-Labour national swing - in 2015 such as Telford and Morley & Outwood were not recaptured by Labour in 2017 despite the 2% swing to Labour.
  • Boris Johnson has a big problem with women. He’s doing nothing to address it.
    I don't disagree with you.
  • justin124 said:

    First term incumbency is pretty well established - indeed we saw clear evidence of if as far back as the 1964 election when the Tories managed to hang on to quite a few of the seats gained in 1959 despite a national pro-Labour swing of 3.5%. More recently its influence was very evident at the 2015 and 2017 elections. Seats gained by the Tories - against the tiny pro-Labour national swing - in 2015 such as Telford and Morley & Outwood were not recaptured by Labour in 2017 despite the 2% swing to Labour.
    I repeat - the rule book has been torn up
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Does every MP on the leaked Whatsapp want to join BoZo in jail?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I repeat - the rule book has been torn up
    Agreed. With the disgust at MPs incumbency is likely to be a drawback
  • Oh, so sorry. I forgot that us working class folks aren't allowed to have ambition. That is the preserve of our betters.

    I must apologise for having the temerity to pass my A Levels and go to a Russell Group university. Should have gone down the pit.
    With respect - grow up
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Cambridge and Leeds NW will also go LD, as may Oxford East and Kensington and Battersea
    Cambridge is probably safe now for Labour - particularly with such a pro- Remain MP as Zeichner. Leeds NW is less at risk than it appears because Greg Mulholland is not standing again. Oxford East is now safe for Labour - and will not be a LD target. If Labour loses Kensington or Battersea , it will be to the Tories - certainly not the LDs.
  • DougSeal said:
    I think their argument will be that a No Deal Brexit risks most of those things, and that unless they have the unfettered ability to threaten the EU with No Deal, they won't be able to get the right deal, thereby increasing the chance of No Deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,364
    Scott_P said:

    Does every MP on the leaked Whatsapp want to join BoZo in jail?

    We should be so lucky.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I repeat - the rule book has been torn up
    I very much doubt that!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    I think their argument will be that a No Deal Brexit risks most of those things, and that unless they have the unfettered ability to threaten the EU with No Deal, they won't be able to get the right deal, thereby increasing the chance of No Deal.
    I would laugh if I didn’t genuinely think someone might try to argue that
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Boris Johnson has a big problem with women. He’s doing nothing to address it.
    Bit sexist to divide the voters up by their gender....
  • Oh, so sorry. I forgot that us working class folks aren't allowed to have ambition. That is the preserve of our betters.

    I must apologise for having the temerity to pass my A Levels and go to a Russell Group university. Should have gone down the pit.
    On what (non-communist) planet is society supposed to be engineered in such a way that all parents have the exact same range of choices?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

This discussion has been closed.