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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget

After three online pollsters had reported LAB leads down to just one percent there’ll perhaps be some relief at Miliband HQ that tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the margin down to 5%

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    1 min early!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Interesting.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    I'm werry werry cwoss.

    Show me the cwossover, where is the cwossover?

    [Dwops nut and stamps little paws.]
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Obligatory sleazy broken Labour on the slide.

    With YouGov, the Lab lead doubles

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight- Labour lead shrinks to just two points: CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Labour's YG lead has doubled!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    ComRes tables out

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/070187_Independent_Political_Poll_25th_March_2014.pdf
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    SouthamObserver said:

    Labour's YG lead has doubled!

    Upside outlier.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Oh dear ! Didn't even last as long as the flounce bounce .

    Where is tim when you need him ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AveryLP said:

    I'm werry werry cwoss.

    Show me the cwossover, where is the cwossover?

    [Dwops nut and stamps little paws.]

    But Avery, as a Towy, you should be pleased ! You do like watching other people work, don't you ?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Labour taken a bit of a hit. Needs to come out fighting.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    To get things in proportion, the same poll two months ago showed Con 32, Lab 33.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    So it looks very much like the trends identified over the weekend have continued. Has to be a concern for Labour, no? You would expect the only major opposition party at this stage of the electoral cycle to have a substantial lead in the polls (if they have a shot at forming the next government, that is)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    In March 2009, for the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes.

    Ed is no Dave
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    The Lib Dems are up to 10% with YouGov. Don't let it be said that the recovery is only benefiting the Tories.
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    FPT

    DaemonBarber said:
    Regarding the below debate over sharia law versus English law...
    Come back FPTP versus AV.

    I just don't get religion. Not one bit.

    A religion is where a bunch of underachieving neurotic dimwits get together to attack a different bunch of underachieving neurotic dimwits.

    If people want to live in a country run by Sharia law there are a lot of basket case countries they can go and live (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Somalia etc) instead of the UK.

    But which came first, the basket case country or the basket case religion?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,182
    edited March 2014
    If we were, for example, averaging the last 8 polls, Labour leads of 8 and 4 have been replaced by 5 and 2. Average Labour lead over last 8 polls is now 3%, not so long ago it was over 6%.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    You are right ! 5% lead [ remember, phone polls are better than online poll: PB golden rule ] , majority government. Miliband should be worried.

    Are you nicking Hodges' line ?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    antifrank said:

    To get things in proportion, the same poll two months ago showed Con 32, Lab 33.

    The big boats float on an incoming blue tide.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JohnLilburne said:

    If we were, for example, averaging the last 8 polls, leads of 8 and 4 have been replaced by 5 and 2. Average Tory lead over last 8 polls is now 3%, not so long ago it was over 6%.

    What are you smoking ?

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Antifrank

    Yes. Labour will be slightly relieved at first, but shouldn't be. They have shipped a couple of points, only upside is that it isn't going to the Tories in any great numbers.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    AveryLP said:

    I'm werry werry cwoss.

    Show me the cwossover, where is the cwossover?

    [Dwops nut and stamps little paws.]

    compouter will be gutted that his internet connection is down tonight of all nights.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Obligatory sleazy broken Labour on the slide.

    With YouGov, the Lab lead doubles

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight- Labour lead shrinks to just two points: CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In March 2009, for the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes.

    Ed is no Dave

    In those days lefty LibDems still voted Liberal.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    BobaFett said:

    @Antifrank

    Yes. Labour will be slightly relieved at first, but shouldn't be. They have shipped a couple of points, only upside is that it isn't going to the Tories in any great numbers.

    Can the Tories better 37% ?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,182
    surbiton said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    If we were, for example, averaging the last 8 polls, leads of 8 and 4 have been replaced by 5 and 2. Average Tory lead over last 8 polls is now 3%, not so long ago it was over 6%.

    What are you smoking ?

    It's a "Wishful Thinking" flavoured eShisha. Now corrected.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    You are right ! 5% lead [ remember, phone polls are better than online poll: PB golden rule ] , majority government. Miliband should be worried.

    Are you nicking Hodges' line ?
    You remind me of the infamous "PB Tories" just before the last election proclaiming nailed on majorities in the face of narrowing poll leads and swingback. Started from a higher base too IIRC...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    surbiton said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Antifrank

    Yes. Labour will be slightly relieved at first, but shouldn't be. They have shipped a couple of points, only upside is that it isn't going to the Tories in any great numbers.

    Can the Tories better 37% ?
    Not that long ago. Before 2012 budget, to be accurate. So, in a word, Yes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Labour have some work to do for sure. But that split of the right wing vote and consolidation of the left wing vote is an absolute killer for the Tories.

    Electoral calculus have this as a Labour majority of 60, despite the two main parties not being far off the reverse of the 2010 result.

    If I were Dave, I would be praying for a Cable takeover of the LDs.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In March 2009, for the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes.

    Ed is no Dave

    It's a painful comparison but ultimately a slightly odd one. To judge Dave's political virility by anything other than his failure to win in 2010 is strange. Bit like a batsman who failed in test matches telling you he was really great at net practice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m

    @Sun_Politics describe tonight's YouGov poll as "Labour lead shrinks"
    Eh? It is up from 1 to 2. This is one for you Mr. Gove
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    surbiton said:

    AveryLP said:

    I'm werry werry cwoss.

    Show me the cwossover, where is the cwossover?

    [Dwops nut and stamps little paws.]

    But Avery, as a Towy, you should be pleased ! You do like watching other people work, don't you ?
    I pwefer lining up the cwoss hairs in my telescopic sights on red sqwiwells.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    Yeah, there were lots of posts like that from the blues just prior to the GE...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In March 2009, for the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes.

    Ed is no Dave

    It's a painful comparison but ultimately a slightly odd one. To judge Dave's political virility by anything other than his failure to win in 2010 is strange. Bit like a batsman who failed in test matches telling you he was really great at net practice.
    Look at this graph to see this why that comparison is interesting

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Graph-pic.jpg

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Obligatory sleazy broken Labour on the slide.

    With YouGov, the Lab lead doubles

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight- Labour lead shrinks to just two points: CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%

    I do wish we could get a level outlier !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jonathan said:

    Labour have some work to do for sure. But that split of the right wing vote and consolidation of the left wing vote is an absolute killer for the Tories.

    Electoral calculus have this as a Labour majority of 60, despite the two main parties not being far off the reverse of the 2010 result.

    If I were Dave, I would be praying for a Cable takeover of the LDs.

    Nigel Farage = Ralph Nader = Alliance'83
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,969
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    You are right ! 5% lead [ remember, phone polls are better than online poll: PB golden rule ] , majority government. Miliband should be worried.

    Are you nicking Hodges' line ?
    I've been saying for a year that I think Labour are going to win the next GE, probably with a small overall majority.

    I still believe that. But I am much less convinced than I was. Ed is having a bad 2014, no doubt about it.

    And Scotland is a huge problem, which Miliband seems unable or unwilling to address. If Labour loses Scotland you are fecked for 20 years.
    They are self destructing in Scotland, conference last week was a nightmare and the leaders interviews on TV were just bizarre, incoherent rubbish about 2016 manifesto. Hard to see how they can recover. No talent , no organisation on the ground and no policies. Their red paper mentions SNP 117 times , unbelievable. Everything in their conference was just SNP , Salmond , consumed totally with hatred.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    Jonathan said:

    Labour have some work to do for sure. But that split of the right wing vote and consolidation of the left wing vote is an absolute killer for the Tories.

    Electoral calculus have this as a Labour majority of 60, despite the two main parties not being far off the reverse of the 2010 result.

    If I were Dave, I would be praying for a Cable takeover of the LDs.

    Actually I think the only way the Lib Dems can get those voters back is a cast iron guarantee of no deal with the Tories after 2015. Even if they start pedaling back towards a soft left position, the desire of Lib>Lab switchers to see the Tories gone will far outweigh any forgiveness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m

    @Sun_Politics describe tonight's YouGov poll as "Labour lead shrinks"
    Eh? It is up from 1 to 2. This is one for you Mr. Gove

    From the Sun's last poll it has.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    What indyref polling?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    DaemonBarber said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    Yeah, there were lots of posts like that from the blues just prior to the GE...
    Just remember: Vote Distribution, Same Boundaries.

    I would say with UKIP getting 6% of the votes, Tories would need a lead of 8% even to equal their current number of MPs.

    Mike, repeatedly writes this but you don't listen, do you ?

    As Clinton says: It's arithmetic !
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,969
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    What indyref polling?
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    What indyref polling?
    last 14 polls have shown trend to yes, latest ones down to 3-5% swing needed for YES.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2014
    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    From today's Labour uncut piece... hmm... never see unskewers on PB only unsquirrels.

    As the pressure rises, the unskewers’ entreaties not to panic will become more voluble. Loyal front-benchers will take up the cause and we’ll see unskewer analysis regularly retweeted to calm nerves.

    The more Labour falls back on this approach, the deeper will be the hole in which the party finds itself. Clinging on to Lib Dem defectors and pointing to Labour’s consistency at 37% in the polls is the last redoubt of those who do not have anything substantive to say on policy or strategy.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cameron gained more seats in 2010 than any Tory leader since Maggie in 83; and took power as Prime Minister. There are worse innings!
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In March 2009, for the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes.

    Ed is no Dave

    It's a painful comparison but ultimately a slightly odd one. To judge Dave's political virility by anything other than his failure to win in 2010 is strange. Bit like a batsman who failed in test matches telling you he was really great at net practice.
    Look at this graph to see this why that comparison is interesting

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Graph-pic.jpg

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    AveryLP said:



    Upside outlier.

    The outlier in the other direction will be high entertainment....

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    surbiton said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    Yeah, there were lots of posts like that from the blues just prior to the GE...
    Just remember: Vote Distribution, Same Boundaries.

    I would say with UKIP getting 6% of the votes, Tories would need a lead of 8% even to equal their current number of MPs.

    Mike, repeatedly writes this but you don't listen, do you ?

    As Clinton says: It's arithmetic !
    Mummy, what does hubris mean?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    What are the odds on two GEs in 2015?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    From today's Labour uncut piece... hmm... never see unskewers on PB only unsquirrels.

    As the pressure rises, the unskewers’ entreaties not to panic will become more voluble. Loyal front-benchers will take up the cause and we’ll see unskewer analysis regularly retweeted to calm nerves.

    The more Labour falls back on this approach, the deeper will be the hole in which the party finds itself. Clinging on to Lib Dem defectors and pointing to Labour’s consistency at 37% in the polls is the last redoubt of those who do not have anything substantive to say on policy or strategy.
    Some Labour people also do not understand electoral arithmetic.

    - The Tories did a great favour by retaining FPTP.

    - The Liberals did a great favour by scrapping boundary changes
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    DaemonBarber said:

    surbiton said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    Yeah, there were lots of posts like that from the blues just prior to the GE...
    Just remember: Vote Distribution, Same Boundaries.

    I would say with UKIP getting 6% of the votes, Tories would need a lead of 8% even to equal their current number of MPs.

    Mike, repeatedly writes this but you don't listen, do you ?

    As Clinton says: It's arithmetic !
    Mummy, what does hubris mean?
    It doesn't matter.

    Just leave it alone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Anyone else think that the 5/2 on Nick Clegg's tie being yellow in his debate with Farage represents good value?

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1657911
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    Yeah, there were lots of posts like that from the blues just prior to the GE...
    Just remember: Vote Distribution, Same Boundaries.

    I would say with UKIP getting 6% of the votes, Tories would need a lead of 8% even to equal their current number of MPs.

    Mike, repeatedly writes this but you don't listen, do you ?

    As Clinton says: It's arithmetic !
    For the first time in a while, I detect subconscious but sincere anxiety in your posts.
    WTF are you talking about ?

    Given the current boundaries and FPTP, the Tories cannot win a majority.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2014
    The Co-op Bank's cash problems loom large over Labour too. Oh dear.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Paxman on Newsnight disgusted by the text message fiasco, even though it was only a few.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone else think that the 5/2 on Nick Clegg's tie being yellow in his debate with Farage represents good value?

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1657911

    Hmm, with the other leaders not there, he won't have as much need to go with yellow to distinguish himself. But it's still highly likely.

    I'm sure the leaders don't wear ties in their party colours as often as it seems like, but I'm not certain why they seem so keen to perpetuate the idea the political classes truly are identical to the point we need them to be colour co-ordinated to tell them apart.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    malcolmg said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    What indyref polling?
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    What indyref polling?
    last 14 polls have shown trend to yes, latest ones down to 3-5% swing needed for YES.
    So a six to ten point lead for "no"?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    ComRes is the outlier in the light of recent polls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    Yeah, there were lots of posts like that from the blues just prior to the GE...
    Just remember: Vote Distribution, Same Boundaries.

    I would say with UKIP getting 6% of the votes, Tories would need a lead of 8% even to equal their current number of MPs.

    Mike, repeatedly writes this but you don't listen, do you ?

    As Clinton says: It's arithmetic !
    For the first time in a while, I detect subconscious but sincere anxiety in your posts.
    WTF are you talking about ?

    Given the current boundaries and FPTP, the Tories cannot win a majority.
    Not 'cannot win a majority'. 'Currently inconceivable they could win a majority'. You have to let people have some hope.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    edited March 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In March 2009, for the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes.

    Ed is no Dave

    It's a painful comparison but ultimately a slightly odd one. To judge Dave's political virility by anything other than his failure to win in 2010 is strange. Bit like a batsman who failed in test matches telling you he was really great at net practice.
    Look at this graph to see this why that comparison is interesting

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Graph-pic.jpg

    I wouldn't take pre-97 polls seriously or OGH might be inclined to fire you as guest editor. Those figures look somewhat strange. ICM had the Tories polling 33% in 2004 and between 32-34% in 2001. They had the Tories around 40% in mid-2009 so no major fall back there. Latest ICM had Labour on 38%, so I would expect a couple of points below next year. 36%?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    surbiton said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have some work to do for sure. But that split of the right wing vote and consolidation of the left wing vote is an absolute killer for the Tories.

    Electoral calculus have this as a Labour majority of 60, despite the two main parties not being far off the reverse of the 2010 result.

    If I were Dave, I would be praying for a Cable takeover of the LDs.

    Nigel Farage = Ralph Nader = Alliance'83
    The threat is though that the Tories can pick off a few more points from Ukip, on top of those they have just snaffled. The two key groups in this election are the Red Liberals and the Purple Tories.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    Yeah, there were lots of posts like that from the blues just prior to the GE...
    Just remember: Vote Distribution, Same Boundaries.

    I would say with UKIP getting 6% of the votes, Tories would need a lead of 8% even to equal their current number of MPs.

    Mike, repeatedly writes this but you don't listen, do you ?

    As Clinton says: It's arithmetic !
    For the first time in a while, I detect subconscious but sincere anxiety in your posts.
    WTF are you talking about ?

    Given the current boundaries and FPTP, the Tories cannot win a majority.
    Again, the faint but distinct hyperbole and bad-temper in your remarks betrays a concealed panic. As I said, it is possibly subconscious and you are not even aware of it yourself.

    SeanT can add irony to his many strengths. After all, no one does hyperbole and bad-temper quite like him.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In March 2009, for the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes.

    Ed is no Dave

    It's a painful comparison but ultimately a slightly odd one. To judge Dave's political virility by anything other than his failure to win in 2010 is strange. Bit like a batsman who failed in test matches telling you he was really great at net practice.
    Look at this graph to see this why that comparison is interesting

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Graph-pic.jpg

    I wouldn't take pre-97 polls seriously or OGH might be inclined to fire you as guest editor. Those figures look somewhat strange. ICM had the Tories polling 33% in 2004 and between 32-34% in 2001. They had the Tories around 40% in mid-2009 so no major fall back there. Latest ICM had Labour on 38%, so I would expect a couple of points below next year. 36%?
    Some of the pre 92 polling was accurate, it was 1992/1997 that the polling wheels fell off.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    SeanT said:

    Bizarre question: has anyone seen the caribou migrations of Nunavut, Canada?

    Today the Times asked me to go and write about it. The specialist lodge, where you can see this great spectacle - and which sits on the Arctic tree line - only invites two journalists a year. This year they have invited two Brits: Boris's dad, Stanley Johnson, and, errr, me (via my editor).

    However it's a feck of a long way to travel - to go and see a bunch of deer looking slightly confused in the snow.

    Hmm. On the upside Stanley and I will be able to discuss Bozza's future as prime minister of England, and the horrors of the HS2 link, now happily cancelled.

    Not done the caribou migration. But I have seen the wildebeest migration in Tanzania. Tell your editor you need to do a compare-and-contrast of the two... But the Ngorongoro Crater is worth spending your own money to see in any event.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    surbiton said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tories stay on 36 with YG. That should worry Labour a lot. Lead down to 5 with ComRes should not be reassuring either. The direction of travel is clear which Labour need to address.

    And, Labour is still at > 37%.

    YouGov: Labour 334 seats, majority 18

    Comres [ phone poll ]: Labour 354 seats, majority 96.

    Labour should be worried !

    From today's Labour uncut piece... hmm... never see unskewers on PB only unsquirrels.

    As the pressure rises, the unskewers’ entreaties not to panic will become more voluble. Loyal front-benchers will take up the cause and we’ll see unskewer analysis regularly retweeted to calm nerves.

    The more Labour falls back on this approach, the deeper will be the hole in which the party finds itself. Clinging on to Lib Dem defectors and pointing to Labour’s consistency at 37% in the polls is the last redoubt of those who do not have anything substantive to say on policy or strategy.
    Some Labour people also do not understand electoral arithmetic.

    - The Tories did a great favour by retaining FPTP.

    - The Liberals did a great favour by scrapping boundary changes
    What's interesting is that when Miliband has these little blips no one on the left advances any a priori reason why he should ultimately beat Cameron (e.g. that he is a greater or a better man, is a better driver or tells funnier jokes than Cameron). You implicitly concede that his best quality is a slight lead in the polls, when he has one.

    As dear old Auden put it:

    Out of the air a voice without a face
    Proved by statistics that some cause was just
    In tones as dry and level as the place:
    No one was cheered and nothing was discussed.

    PS you are going to lose!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    FPT:
    FrankBooth said:

    Surprising given how well the Tories have been polling that pb is fixated with Sharia law.

    No, it's not.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?

    No, just from the perspective of property owners in NW1 and NW3. The link might have been great for the nation, but as a property owner in NW1, I don't give a f*ck. The link would have been catastrophic for Camden Town and outlying burbs like Primrose Hill, Dartmouth Park, Hampstead, etc.

    Memo to railway planners: if you want to get permission for a hugely disruptive new railway line, make sure you plan to smash it through a poor area, like, say, Yorkshire, Liverpool, or Scotland, not through the most media savvy, politically influential borough in the entire country.
    Can't they tunnel it, or was the tunnelling what would cause the disruption.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    Apparently another Indy poll at midnight tonight, Bettertogether tweeting it so maybe good/less bad news for them.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/30/tony-blair-backs-egypt-military-ruler-abdel-fatah-al-sisi


    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h

    Egyptian court sentences 529 Muslim Brotherhood members to death: lawyer http://reut.rs/1eE4wfX


    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    George Galloway debating Jim Sillars on BBC Scotland at the mo'. George seems to have borrowed his outfit from Peter Stringfellow.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?

    No, just from the perspective of property owners in NW1 and NW3. The link might have been great for the nation, but as a property owner in NW1, I don't give a f*ck. The link would have been catastrophic for Camden Town and outlying burbs like Primrose Hill, Dartmouth Park, Hampstead, etc.

    Memo to railway planners: if you want to get permission for a hugely disruptive new railway line, make sure you plan to smash it through a poor area, like, say, Yorkshire, Liverpool, or Scotland, not through the most media savvy, politically influential borough in the entire country.
    Can't they tunnel it, or was the tunnelling what would cause the disruption.
    The current plan is to revive the St Pancras link and compensate the residents of Camden Town by relocating them to Ebbsfleet Garden City.

    Sean may even get an extra bedroom and an oblique view of the Thames estuary.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    edited March 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Apparently another Indy poll at midnight tonight, Bettertogether tweeting it so maybe good/less bad news for them.

    I maybe wrong, but I think it might be TNS BMRB.

    They released some polling last week, on engagement etc last week.

    So they maybe releasing the rest today.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited March 2014
    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's
    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
    Haggerty from the Drum, Roy Greenslade fro the Granuaid etc - 3 for 3 ?.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HS2 link would be good for the rest of the country: it would mean Bham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Glasgow, Leeds having a direct rail link to the continent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?

    No, just from the perspective of property owners in NW1 and NW3. The link might have been great for the nation, but as a property owner in NW1, I don't give a f*ck. The link would have been catastrophic for Camden Town and outlying burbs like Primrose Hill, Dartmouth Park, Hampstead, etc.

    Memo to railway planners: if you want to get permission for a hugely disruptive new railway line, make sure you plan to smash it through a poor area, like, say, Yorkshire, Liverpool, or Scotland, not through the most media savvy, politically influential borough in the entire country.
    Can't they tunnel it, or was the tunnelling what would cause the disruption.
    It's too expensive to tunnel, right now. Apparently. And too destructive to go overground. They literally wanted to smash through Camden Markets, one of the biggest tourist attractions in the UK, which generates billions. Insane.

    But in all honesty the whole thing is daft. At some point - given that we aren't in Schengen - we would need to check passports of people going to Europe anyway, so "through trains" are a delusion. We might as well do it in Euston or St Pancras. Ergo people from Brum or northern cities or Scotland will have to get off at Euston, then stand on a travelator for 3 minutes (the latest plan) then get their passports checked, then get on a new train at Kings X.

    It's not exactly the Holocaust.
    Hm, perhaps scope for a future project to tunnel it. Is a bit stupid not to do it at the same time though.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?

    No, just from the perspective of property owners in NW1 and NW3. The link might have been great for the nation, but as a property owner in NW1, I don't give a f*ck. The link would have been catastrophic for Camden Town and outlying burbs like Primrose Hill, Dartmouth Park, Hampstead, etc.

    Memo to railway planners: if you want to get permission for a hugely disruptive new railway line, make sure you plan to smash it through a poor area, like, say, Yorkshire, Liverpool, or Scotland, not through the most media savvy, politically influential borough in the entire country.
    Can't they tunnel it, or was the tunnelling what would cause the disruption.
    It's too expensive to tunnel, right now. Apparently. And too destructive to go overground. They literally wanted to smash through Camden Markets, one of the biggest tourist attractions in the UK, which generates billions. Insane..
    Is this actually, for lack of a better word, true?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    Last 20 polls: 2 have Labour lead at more than 5%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/30/tony-blair-backs-egypt-military-ruler-abdel-fatah-al-sisi


    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h

    Egyptian court sentences 529 Muslim Brotherhood members to death: lawyer http://reut.rs/1eE4wfX


    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
    Haggerty from the Drum, Roy Greenslade fro the Granuaid etc - 3 for 3 ?.
    Which one do you think is lying about what Blair said or the 529 death sentences?
    Or are you just comically fumbling about as usual 'arry?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    AndyJS said:

    HS2 link would be good for the rest of the country: it would mean Bham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Glasgow, Leeds having a direct rail link to the continent.

    Would they actually have had trains which went all the way to the Continent, or would a change be required?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    Along with the indyref polling, these are worrying times for little Ed Miliband.

    You are right ! 5% lead [ remember, phone polls are better than online poll: PB golden rule ] , majority government. Miliband should be worried.

    Are you nicking Hodges' line ?
    And Scotland is a huge problem, which Miliband seems unable or unwilling to address. If Labour loses Scotland you are fecked for 20 years.
    The bizarre thing is, Labour posters on here keep asking 'When is Cameron going to do something about it?' Since over 80% of Scottish Conservatives are going to vote for the Union, his work is done.....

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/30/tony-blair-backs-egypt-military-ruler-abdel-fatah-al-sisi


    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h

    Egyptian court sentences 529 Muslim Brotherhood members to death: lawyer http://reut.rs/1eE4wfX


    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
    Haggerty from the Drum, Roy Greenslade fro the Granuaid etc - 3 for 3 ?.
    Which one do you think is lying about what Blair said or the 529 death sentences?
    Or are you just comically fumbling about as usual 'arry?
    Just enjoying your non denial. Paul McConville doesn't tweet as much these days mind you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Frustratingly close for the tories but no banana. 3 polls in a row showing a Labour lead of 1%. What are the odds on that? Natural variation and a desire of a headline should have moved one over the line. And now a tel poll showing an improvement but a bigger gap.

    I am not sure it gets much worse for Labour than this. Their leader has confirmed himself as a prat, they are falling apart in Scotland, their bank is up the spout and Ed Balls is still shadow Chancellor. Rather than relying on wishful thinking about trends tories need to think just what is it going to take to get a lead?

    A tory lead in the next week or so remains a possibility but my guess is that it is no longer a probability. Which is a pity because you can't help feeling that an opinion poll lead is all that stands between Labour and a total melt down. What is the point in pretending that Ed is the answer if you are not even winning? I really don't think there is a coherent answer to that question.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?

    No, just from the perspective of property owners in NW1 and NW3. The link might have been great for the nation, but as a property owner in NW1, I don't give a f*ck. The link would have been catastrophic for Camden Town and outlying burbs like Primrose Hill, Dartmouth Park, Hampstead, etc.

    Memo to railway planners: if you want to get permission for a hugely disruptive new railway line, make sure you plan to smash it through a poor area, like, say, Yorkshire, Liverpool, or Scotland, not through the most media savvy, politically influential borough in the entire country.
    Can't they tunnel it, or was the tunnelling what would cause the disruption.
    It's too expensive to tunnel, right now. Apparently. And too destructive to go overground. They literally wanted to smash through Camden Markets, one of the biggest tourist attractions in the UK, which generates billions. Insane.

    But in all honesty the whole thing is daft. At some point - given that we aren't in Schengen - we would need to check passports of people going to Europe anyway, so "through trains" are a delusion. We might as well do it in Euston or St Pancras. Ergo people from Brum or northern cities or Scotland will have to get off at Euston, then stand on a travelator for 3 minutes (the latest plan) then get their passports checked, then get on a new train at Kings X.

    It's not exactly the Holocaust.
    Camden's a shithole. Demolishing it to build a decent railway would improve the area.

    As for your ludicrous suggestion that the markets generate billions? Lay off the Morrisons Amarone.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?

    No, just from the perspective of property owners in NW1 and NW3. The link might have been great for the nation, but as a property owner in NW1, I don't give a f*ck. The link would have been catastrophic for Camden Town and outlying burbs like Primrose Hill, Dartmouth Park, Hampstead, etc.

    Memo to railway planners: if you want to get permission for a hugely disruptive new railway line, make sure you plan to smash it through a poor area, like, say, Yorkshire, Liverpool, or Scotland, not through the most media savvy, politically influential borough in the entire country.
    Can't they tunnel it, or was the tunnelling what would cause the disruption.
    It's too expensive to tunnel, right now. Apparently. And too destructive to go overground. They literally wanted to smash through Camden Markets, one of the biggest tourist attractions in the UK, which generates billions. Insane.

    But in all honesty the whole thing is daft. At some point - given that we aren't in Schengen - we would need to check passports of people going to Europe anyway, so "through trains" are a delusion. We might as well do it in Euston or St Pancras. Ergo people from Brum or northern cities or Scotland will have to get off at Euston, then stand on a travelator for 3 minutes (the latest plan) then get their passports checked, then get on a new train at Kings X.

    It's not exactly the Holocaust.
    Hm, perhaps scope for a future project to tunnel it. Is a bit stupid not to do it at the same time though.
    I think the real answer to this is political.

    Cameron charged 'Professor' Higgins with the task of reducing overall cost (to defuse Labour criticism and to gain cross-party support) and to increase investment and employment in the North (to woo the desolates to the Tories).

    Higgins obliged. The periphery of any large infrastructure is always the first to be chopped in austere times, so starting in the North protects that area from later cost cutting. It also builds demand and encourages 'joined up' thinking. That makes it much easier for a government to approve the join at a later date.

    With current costs of the London link being £500-£700 million the scale of investment required, even after a long delay, will always be within reach for government capital expenditure.

    I think Josias is right that it will reappear under a revised plan once work gets underway in the provinces.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,182
    AndyJS said:

    HS2 link would be good for the rest of the country: it would mean Bham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Glasgow, Leeds having a direct rail link to the continent.

    Who wants to go all the way from Newcastle to Cologne by train? Flying is better. London to Brussels or Paris just about works, but it's almost more convenient (and cheaper) to fly to Amsterdam rather than take the train.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/30/tony-blair-backs-egypt-military-ruler-abdel-fatah-al-sisi


    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h

    Egyptian court sentences 529 Muslim Brotherhood members to death: lawyer http://reut.rs/1eE4wfX


    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
    Haggerty from the Drum, Roy Greenslade fro the Granuaid etc - 3 for 3 ?.
    Which one do you think is lying about what Blair said or the 529 death sentences?
    Or are you just comically fumbling about as usual 'arry?
    Just enjoying your non denial.
    Been drinking very heavily have you 'arry?

    LOL

    Which one is lying? Come on chum, speak up!

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,182
    JohnLilburne said:

    AndyJS said:

    HS2 link would be good for the rest of the country: it would mean Bham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Glasgow, Leeds having a direct rail link to the continent.

    Who wants to go all the way from Newcastle to Cologne by train? Flying is better. London to Brussels or Paris just about works, but it's almost more convenient (and cheaper) to fly to Amsterdam rather than take the train.

    here is another thing I have always wondered about Eurostar. Given that an official language of one the the two countries it goes to is Dutch, why are all the signs bilingual in English and French?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/30/tony-blair-backs-egypt-military-ruler-abdel-fatah-al-sisi


    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h

    Egyptian court sentences 529 Muslim Brotherhood members to death: lawyer http://reut.rs/1eE4wfX


    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
    Haggerty from the Drum, Roy Greenslade fro the Granuaid etc - 3 for 3 ?.
    Which one do you think is lying about what Blair said or the 529 death sentences?
    Or are you just comically fumbling about as usual 'arry?
    Just enjoying your non denial.
    Been drinking very heavily have you 'arry?

    LOL

    Which one is lying? Come on chum, speak up!

    Couldn't give a toss. Just laughing at your tweet list.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JohnLilburne said:

    AndyJS said:

    HS2 link would be good for the rest of the country: it would mean Bham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Glasgow, Leeds having a direct rail link to the continent.

    Who wants to go all the way from Newcastle to Cologne by train? Flying is better. London to Brussels or Paris just about works, but it's almost more convenient (and cheaper) to fly to Amsterdam rather than take the train.

    Fear of flying.

    Many northerners have never seen an aeroplane let alone boarded one.

    It really is that desolate up there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    JohnLilburne said:

    AndyJS said:

    HS2 link would be good for the rest of the country: it would mean Bham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Glasgow, Leeds having a direct rail link to the continent.

    Who wants to go all the way from Newcastle to Cologne by train? Flying is better. London to Brussels or Paris just about works, but it's almost more convenient (and cheaper) to fly to Amsterdam rather than take the train.

    Competition. Some will be happy to sit on a train for 8 hours to get somewhere they can fly in 2 to save £££.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/30/tony-blair-backs-egypt-military-ruler-abdel-fatah-al-sisi


    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h

    Egyptian court sentences 529 Muslim Brotherhood members to death: lawyer http://reut.rs/1eE4wfX


    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
    Haggerty from the Drum, Roy Greenslade fro the Granuaid etc - 3 for 3 ?.
    Which one do you think is lying about what Blair said or the 529 death sentences?
    Or are you just comically fumbling about as usual 'arry?
    Just enjoying your non denial.
    Been drinking very heavily have you 'arry?

    LOL

    Which one is lying? Come on chum, speak up!

    Couldn't give a toss.
    Then is was pretty dumb to start whining about the story, wasn't it 'arry?

    *chortle*

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    When did Comres do the fieldwork? anyone know??
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    DavidL said:

    Frustratingly close for the tories but no banana. 3 polls in a row showing a Labour lead of 1%. What are the odds on that? Natural variation and a desire of a headline should have moved one over the line. And now a tel poll showing an improvement but a bigger gap.

    I am not sure it gets much worse for Labour than this. Their leader has confirmed himself as a prat, they are falling apart in Scotland, their bank is up the spout and Ed Balls is still shadow Chancellor. Rather than relying on wishful thinking about trends tories need to think just what is it going to take to get a lead?

    A tory lead in the next week or so remains a possibility but my guess is that it is no longer a probability. Which is a pity because you can't help feeling that an opinion poll lead is all that stands between Labour and a total melt down. What is the point in pretending that Ed is the answer if you are not even winning? I really don't think there is a coherent answer to that question.

    It's worth a reminder, I think, that in 2010 the vote share was:

    CON 36
    LAB 29
    LIB 23

    And that wasn't enough to give Cameron a majority.

    LOL100
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 3h

    529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters sentenced to death in #Egypt by the #Blair approved military dictatorship. #c4news

    Witless NeoCon fools.

    Gerry Hassan - you do follow some rum old coves Porky. Is ill 5 names Phil on your go to list ?

    Pitiful even by your standards 'arry.

    Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

    Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/30/tony-blair-backs-egypt-military-ruler-abdel-fatah-al-sisi


    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h

    Egyptian court sentences 529 Muslim Brotherhood members to death: lawyer http://reut.rs/1eE4wfX


    Paul Kershaw ‏@1917paul 13h

    The Wall Street Journal said #Egypt needed its Pinochet - "Egypt court sentences 529 Morsi supporters to death" http://is.gd/3eDPlT
    Haggerty from the Drum, Roy Greenslade fro the Granuaid etc - 3 for 3 ?.
    Which one do you think is lying about what Blair said or the 529 death sentences?
    Or are you just comically fumbling about as usual 'arry?
    Just enjoying your non denial.
    Been drinking very heavily have you 'arry?

    LOL

    Which one is lying? Come on chum, speak up!

    Couldn't give a toss.
    Then is was pretty dumb to start whining about the story, wasn't it 'arry?

    *chortle*

    What story - was chortling at your bhand of mherry men.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    SquareRoot said:

    When did Comres do the fieldwork? anyone know??

    You might find some more info in the comments here. They usually source the fieldwork dates pretty quick.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8690

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    SquareRoot said:

    When did Comres do the fieldwork? anyone know??

    Friday to Sunday, inclusive.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Will Orkney and Shetland join the micro nationalists?
    As Scotland debates splitting from the UK, some of its islands are now demanding the right to their own independence vote. Where will it all end?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2014/mar/24/will-orkney-shetland-join-micronationalists-independence-vote
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    CarlottaVance said:

    Will Orkney and Shetland join the micro nationalists?
    As Scotland debates splitting from the UK, some of its islands are now demanding the right to their own independence vote. Where will it all end?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2014/mar/24/will-orkney-shetland-join-micronationalists-independence-vote

    ROFL
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2014
    SeanT said:

    TheWatcher said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    @SeanT

    What are the horrors of the HS2 link? Are these horrors just from the perspective of property owners in the area, or actually bad for the nation as a whole?

    No, just from the perspective of property owners in NW1 and NW3. The link might have been great for the nation, but as a property owner in NW1, I don't give a f*ck. The link would have been catastrophic for Camden Town and outlying burbs like Primrose Hill, Dartmouth Park, Hampstead, etc.

    Memo to railway planners: if you want to get permission for a hugely disruptive new railway line, make sure you plan to smash it through a poor area, like, say, Yorkshire, Liverpool, or Scotland, not through the most media savvy, politically influential borough in the entire country.
    Can't they tunnel it, or was the tunnelling what would cause the disruption.
    It's too expensive to tunnel, right now. Apparently. And too destructive to go overground. They literally wanted to smash through Camden Markets, one of the biggest tourist attractions in the UK, which generates billions. Insane.

    But in all honesty the whole thing is daft. At some point - given that we aren't in Schengen - we would need to check passports of people going to Europe anyway, so "through trains" are a delusion. We might as well do it in Euston or St Pancras. Ergo people from Brum or northern cities or Scotland will have to get off at Euston, then stand on a travelator for 3 minutes (the latest plan) then get their passports checked, then get on a new train at Kings X.

    It's not exactly the Holocaust.
    Camden's a shithole. Demolishing it to build a decent railway would improve the area.

    As for your ludicrous suggestion that the markets generate billions? Lay off the Morrisons Amarone.
    Camden's a shithole. OK, tell that to my neighbours. This is literally 2 minutes walk from my flat:

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37251643.html

    Heh.
    Drive over the canal from Parkway, to Regents Park and you might as well be journeying to the Moon. You're deluding yourself if you think that Arlington Road is the Outer Circles little cousin.

    The Park is Bentleys and serenity, Camden is 'dogs on string' and the horrors of Chalk Farm and deprived council estates.

    If you had the cash, you'd be off to the former like a shot, or somewhere decent south of Hyde Park.
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