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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the papers reporting Johnson’s big gamble

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  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    It wont emerge. Speculation might but there is no way the Queens discussions with privy councillors are being made public.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,775

    No dissent in the first decade of the 1000 year reich
    That's putting it a little strong, but it does have something of that flavour.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The
    Roger said:

    Stuart. Any idea who is likely to win Aberdeen South and Edinburgh South if there is an early election?
    AbS us
    EdS your cousin
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Well well well. I wondered about this last night.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    The simple solution to the monarchy issue would be to replace the monarch with a computer program that fills the same constitutional role but without the racism and the sex crimes. You could make a little robot to wave to people, they'd still come out and cheer, it would be pretty great.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Also known as the Battle of the Greasy Grass, which I would have thought you would have thought more appropriate.
    Will be plenty of snake oil being used for sure. Thanks for that info though , amazed that I had not heard it called that despite having read up on it and watched various TV programmes on it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    Nigelb said:

    "In the formative years..."

    WTF ?
    Solid foods, teething, walking, potty training, terrible twos, there's a whole load of stuff that has to be dealt with first.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    edited August 2019
    Davidson has resigned
    PS: Good riddance
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,775
    malcolmg said:

    Davidson has resigned

    "Personal reasons"; no bombshells.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980

    I think berwickshire, aberdeenshire west and Mundell are pretty rock solid safe, as is Shetland/Orkney. Everything else in play though
    The LibDems will hold their 4 seats fine, and will probably take Fife NE.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    "the main political event of today: the Shetland by-election "

    Nah. It's the two local council seats where Labour's in real danger of losing what it held in May to upstarts. LD's in Witney North and Radcliffe First in Radcliffe West.

    If Corbyn's uselessness over the past three months loses these two, you can forget all the guff about threats from the Brexit Party.
  • Scott_P said:
    Is that right the PM indicated during the Leadership Election that he was opposed to proroguing Parliament in the way he just has? Don't tell me Boris fibbed!

    The bounder!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357

    There are some interesting alternative histories that can be conjured up on the premiss that he remained on the throne, many of them pretty dark.

    People are, I think, becoming more aware now just how much support there was pre-war for cosying up to the Nazis.

    (This gives me a chance to plug one of my favorite books - Making Friends With Hitler by Ian Kershaw, a biography of Lord Londonderry. He was Minister for Aviation in the 1930s and invited many a Nazi dignitary, including Goebbels, to his country pile in Ireland. I suppose you'd have to say he was not so much a bad man as a 'useful idiot' for the Nazis, as Churchill put it. Good job there are no useful idiots around today! Think of the damage they would cause. Btw, if you have seen the film Remains Of The Day, Londonderry is played beautifully by James Fox. The name was changed to Lord Darlington though, presumably for legal reasons.)
    At the time many people thought the Nazis rather glitzy, flash, fashionable and modern - with a good few political points to make - as repugnant as that seems now.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TOPPING said:

    I don't want your respect. To be a patriot means you love your country and, according to Webster's, would be willing to fight for it. Let's leave that last bit out and go with love your country a lot.

    A republican, such as yourself, does not love this country. He loves another country that this one, that the UK is not; one without a monarch as head of state. That means you are not a patriot.
    Your second paragraph is a non sequitur. It is perfectly possible for a republican to love his country - indeed he might love it more as a consequence of it having ceased to be a monarchy.
  • Flanner said:

    "the main political event of today: the Shetland by-election "

    Nah. It's the two local council seats where Labour's in real danger of losing what it held in May to upstarts. LD's in Witney North and Radcliffe First in Radcliffe West.

    If Corbyn's uselessness over the past three months loses these two, you can forget all the guff about threats from the Brexit Party.

    Well I travel through Witney a fair bit and one does notice quite a few sandals being worn.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Is there a betting market on when TSE gets dragged to the Tower?

    Will he have hot coals dropped down his breeches in public so we can all have a laugh?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,775

    Is that right the PM indicated during the Leadership Election that he was opposed to proroguing Parliament in the way he just has? Don't tell me Boris fibbed!

    The bounder!!
    He was... noncommittal in his disapproval.

    Several among his now cabinet condemned the idea without reservation.

    The PM is a more practiced liar.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Is that right the PM indicated during the Leadership Election that he was opposed to proroguing Parliament in the way he just has? Don't tell me Boris fibbed!

    The bounder!!
    Did anyone ask him if he would be bringing a Queen's Speech before the end of October?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    His mother does, he's favourite child apparently.

    Oddly enough, guy at the gym (a retired doctor) asked me what I thought about Prince A this morning. If he was on the jury, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor would have no chance.
  • egg said:

    Is there a betting market on when TSE gets dragged to the Tower?

    Will he have hot coals dropped down his breeches in public so we can all have a laugh?
    Bizarre.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357

    This talk of republicanism is beside the point. When Charles succeeds the public will rally around (he's already becoming more popular) and will be seen as the fond grandfather. William has not put a foot wrong and will secure the future of the institution well into the distant future.
    Changing to a republic would be hugely complicated for a whole variety of reasons. Very few would have the appetite for it.
    I am a staunch monarchist. I consider proper constitutional monarchy almost the ideal form of Government. Not only for this country but also for others.

    I think several other European countries would be happier and more stable with one, such as Bulgaria and Russia.
  • Ruth Davidson

    'I will continue to support the party and the prime minister'
  • Nigelb said:

    He was... noncommittal in his disapproval.

    Several among his now cabinet condemned the idea without reservation.

    The PM is a more practiced liar.
    Reassuring that he is good at something.
  • To those wanting to stop no deal

    'They had a goal waiting for them and they hit it over the bar'

    Ruth making ever such a sensible speech and is such a loss to the party
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Solid foods, teething, walking, potty training, terrible twos, there's a whole load of stuff that has to be dealt with first.
    :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357
    Pulpstar said:

    Both Green and Brexit party would collapse if there was an election tommorow. We'll need to judge the circs of an election if/when it comes though.
    What if the LDs surged to 25-26% during a campaign and clocked those extra votes in all the right places?
  • At the time many people thought the Nazis rather glitzy, flash, fashionable and modern - with a good few political points to make - as repugnant as that seems now.
    One of the reasons I like to recommend the book is that it helps with the understanding of that mind set, and is therefore something of a cautionary tale.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    What if the LDs surged to 25-26% during a campaign and clocked those extra votes in all the right places?
    Labour would be wiped out
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Thank you. Some great images there. DS makes him look like Nero.

    If the truth is remainers are ‘crying wolf’ the whole of the rest of the world don’t seem to be on message.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357

    The simple solution to the monarchy issue would be to replace the monarch with a computer program that fills the same constitutional role but without the racism and the sex crimes. You could make a little robot to wave to people, they'd still come out and cheer, it would be pretty great.

    Utterly weird.

    The whole point of the monarchy is its flesh and blood humanity, and the fact it's a national family.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357

    One of the reasons I like to recommend the book is that it helps with the understanding of that mind set, and is therefore something of a cautionary tale.
    Thanks. I'll check it out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    Wonder if Ruth will be replaced by right wing leaver loon?

    Much to be said for that. There must be plenty of those in Scotland and at present they are not represented by any of the main parties up there.

    Why not hoover that vote up?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    The simple solution to the monarchy issue would be to replace the monarch with a computer program that fills the same constitutional role but without the racism and the sex crimes. You could make a little robot to wave to people, they'd still come out and cheer, it would be pretty great.

    "it would be pretty great". Go on, you're Trump, aren't you?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Ruth Davidson

    'I will continue to support the party and the prime minister'

    Ruth Davidson to the end
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Well I travel through Witney a fair bit and one does notice quite a few sandals being worn.
    Is Whitney north a parish council election?
  • NEW THREAD

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    This thread has been

    Prorogued

  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    Other than the usual suspects, I can’t seen much discussion of the monarchy in the real world today. I suspect it’s one of those things where if you honestly believe No Deal will be awful, then it’s rational to assume there’ll need to scapegoats and the events of yesterday might add the monarchy to the list. On the other hand if, like me, you think No Deal will have a limited impact then (equally rationally) you don’t see that happening.

    As with all of these differences around the interpretation of the impact of No Deal only time will tell.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,715
    justin124 said:

    Your second paragraph is a non sequitur. It is perfectly possible for a republican to love his country - indeed he might love it more as a consequence of it having ceased to be a monarchy.
    You're late to the game but to repeat, he cannot love it if he wants to change its constitution fundamentally. He would love what it might become and he might love the potential for it to be something else, but as currently constituted he does not love it.

    But we've moved on, everyone who commented agreed that I was right.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Nigelb said:

    "Personal reasons"; no bombshells.
    That is what they all say
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    At the time many people thought the Nazis rather glitzy, flash, fashionable and modern - with a good few political points to make - as repugnant as that seems now.
    Not just England and Ireland, there were Nazi fans all over Europe during the 1930s. I cannot think of a single country that was immune.

    Lord Reith, founder of the BBC, was a huge fan of the Nazis, according to his daughter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    At the time many people thought the Nazis rather glitzy, flash, fashionable and modern - with a good few political points to make - as repugnant as that seems now.
    It was quite a common view at the time that bourgeois parliamentary democracy was logjammed and moribund and unable to deliver the will of the people. Also that the only way to escape the threat of socialism was through the action of an autocratic leader.

    The Nazis did this with characteristicly Germanic efficiency, but this was a phenomenon across much of Europe. By concentrating on the most extreme example we perhaps neglect the more instructive ones.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980

    To those wanting to stop no deal

    'They had a goal waiting for them and they hit it over the bar'

    Ruth making ever such a sensible speech and is such a loss to the party

    Definitely a huge loss.
    However as she says, the election successes pale into insignificance compared to IndyRef, and this decision puts her in a good position to play a major role in any future IndyRef, with her credibility untarnished by Brexit/Boris.
    Could be quite a smart move.
    And, actually, I'm quite sure she is genuine about the family considerations.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    The

    AbS us
    EdS your cousin
    Tory gain then
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    148grss said:

    Also, cannot I aspire for my country to be better? Not that I particularly care for labels like patriot (I don't consider the idea of love for one's country particularly useful), but by your definition @TOPPING if ANYONE wants ANY change to the country, that means they aren't patriots. Want to get rid of FPTP, not a patriot. Want to see an elected HoL, not a patriot. Reformism is not anti patriotic. Revolutionaryism may be, and I may be willing to put myself in that camp.
    A patriot may not wish to see the Armed Forces of his country prevail in battle if he genuinely believes them to be guided by evil forces and are being used as instruments of aggression against others.Claus Von Stauffenberg was a great patriot, and I take the same view of those who had no desire to see the British and US forces triumph in the 2003 Iraq War.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Well I travel through Witney a fair bit and one does notice quite a few sandals being worn.
    with socks no doubt as well
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    And it's Jezza's 48th position on indy. New position expected shortly depending on the last person he spoke to.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1167008588495314944?s=20

    There are only two positions to hold at the next election. Pro Johnson or against. The only question is how to maximise the anti Johnson vote. I'm hoping one of the legendary PB psephologists will guide us where we have to put our X to give us the best chance. Scotland should be easy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    kinabalu said:

    Wonder if Ruth will be replaced by right wing leaver loon?

    Much to be said for that. There must be plenty of those in Scotland and at present they are not represented by any of the main parties up there.

    Why not hoover that vote up?

    there are not that many and they are already the ones that vote Tory
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Definitely a huge loss.
    However as she says, the election successes pale into insignificance compared to IndyRef, and this decision puts her in a good position to play a major role in any future IndyRef, with her credibility untarnished by Brexit/Boris.
    Could be quite a smart move.
    And, actually, I'm quite sure she is genuine about the family considerations.
    Bollox and already well tarnished, another one defeated by their blind opposition to SNP rather than having aspirations and policies for Scotland. Will have a think tank / cushy public service number lined up for sure. She is not stupid and can see that she has no chance of going anywhere in politics in Scotland and now that UK is a desert for her she is off, only thing she was ever interested in was promoting herself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357

    Not just England and Ireland, there were Nazi fans all over Europe during the 1930s. I cannot think of a single country that was immune.

    Lord Reith, founder of the BBC, was a huge fan of the Nazis, according to his daughter.
    Indeed. Some saw it very clearly at the time but the sheer horror of what was to come wasn't abundantly clear to many until much later.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Labour would be wiped out
    Hence why no VONC next week....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Not just England and Ireland, there were Nazi fans all over Europe during the 1930s. I cannot think of a single country that was immune.
    Certainly not Scotland !
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Scott_P said:
    Lowest LibDem vote share with Yougov since mid- May.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    Both Green and Brexit party would collapse if there was an election tommorow. We'll need to judge the circs of an election if/when it comes though.
    The LDs would also fall back.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    Foxy said:

    It was quite a common view at the time that bourgeois parliamentary democracy was logjammed and moribund and unable to deliver the will of the people. Also that the only way to escape the threat of socialism was through the action of an autocratic leader.

    The Nazis did this with characteristicly Germanic efficiency, but this was a phenomenon across much of Europe. By concentrating on the most extreme example we perhaps neglect the more instructive ones.
    My reading suggests that rather than the Nazis being efficient the other parties were disorganised, and von Papen in particular was under the impression he could manage Hitler.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Roger said:



    There are only two positions to hold at the next election. Pro Johnson or against. The only question is how to maximise the anti Johnson vote. I'm hoping one of the legendary PB psephologists will guide us where we have to put our X to give us the best chance. Scotland should be easy.

    But your premise is not true. There have been plenty on this forum saying "I'm against Johnson but even more important is avoiding Corbyn as PM"
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foxy said:

    It was quite a common view at the time that bourgeois parliamentary democracy was logjammed and moribund and unable to deliver the will of the people. Also that the only way to escape the threat of socialism was through the action of an autocratic leader.

    The Nazis did this with characteristicly Germanic efficiency, but this was a phenomenon across much of Europe. By concentrating on the most extreme example we perhaps neglect the more instructive ones.
    BoZo has more in common with the Italian clown Mussolini than with the German psychopath.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842
    I woke up incredibly thankful that we are leaving the EU this morning. What is more, I think we will now do so with a deal.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    justin124 said:

    The LDs would also fall back.
    I think this time , even more so than in 2017, the Remainer Labour and LDs [ most of them anyway ] will vote according to the chances of each. A Labour Remainer in Kingston & Surbiton will vote LD despite 2010. It is far too big an issue now than worry about party preference.
  • Flanner said:

    "the main political event of today: the Shetland by-election "

    Nah. It's the two local council seats where Labour's in real danger of losing what it held in May to upstarts. LD's in Witney North and Radcliffe First in Radcliffe West.

    If Corbyn's uselessness over the past three months loses these two, you can forget all the guff about threats from the Brexit Party.

    My Brother and Sister-in-law are both ex Labour/Independent/Green councillors in Radcliffe. They advise that local Labour are seriously worried as Radcliffe First are organised and visible this time.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    My reading suggests that rather than the Nazis being efficient the other parties were disorganised, and von Papen in particular was under the impression he could manage Hitler.
    The politics was in chaos at that time. The relatively central parties were losing control of the Bundestag and the president kept on intervening directly in the functioning of parliament. This resulted in the NSDAP and the comunist parties becoming more and more popular. Where the NSDAP was very effective (rather than efficient) was with the SA being able to "silence" many of their enemies.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    edited August 2019

    I woke up incredibly thankful that we are leaving the EU this morning. What is more, I think we will now do so with a deal.

    Is that a deal with the Backstop that Johnson has trashed? Or is it a deal with a straight pointed horn.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    TOPPING said:


    But we've moved on, everyone who commented agreed that I was right.

    Lol. Do you work for the Daily Express?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    edited August 2019
    Deleted. Nothing to see here...
This discussion has been closed.