1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
That’s how some voters behave Mike: against a candidate.
Others prefer to vote for the candidate closest to their own views: for a candidate.
Swinson will undeniably attract *some* Tories by being anti-independence. However, she will repel *some* Tories by being anti-Brexit.
Neither you nor I can tell how those proportions will play out in East Dunbartonshire by looking at national polls (assuming we had a few to look at).
The local Tories are key. Swinson’s fate lies entirely in their hands. Hence her backing off on going for Johnson’s throat.
Yes, but Scots do seem particularly keen on a party when it appoints a Scottish leader. Brown, Kennedy, Steel, etc.
Absolutely. I do not dispute that. I certainly think that that pattern gives Swinson a wee edge. But only a wee one, and that might not be enough.
Here’s the result last time: UK GE 17 - East Dunbartonshire
SLD (Jo Swinson) 21,023 SNP 15,684 SCon 7,563 SLab 7,531
Now, the level of anti-SNP tactical voting in 2017 was *immense*, not least in East Dunbartonshire. And turnout among SNP supporters was somewhat suppressed. This remember is a former Tory seat, and my guesstimate of the true “honest” electoral preferences of these voters, in a fully motivated, high turnout GE (which is what we expect) is as follows:
SNP 20,000 SCon 15,000 SLD 15,000 SLab 5,000
In other words, if we saw zero tactical-voting then East Dunbartonshire would be a three-way marginal under FPTP, with the SNP in pole position.
Now, obviously, we are still going to see a lot of tactical voting, but with a dramatically different Brexit background now. We will see:
- SCon supporters voting SLD to keep the SNP out (as last time). Fewer, but still significant. - SLab supporters voting SNP to give former Tory-minister Swinson a kick up the erse. - SCon supporters voting “honestly” Tory for the first time in years, cos pissed off with “Bollocks to Brexit” Swinson. - Higher, more motivated SNP turnout.
Now, Swinson might still squeak it, but I don’t much fancy the job of her agent and door-knockers this time around. They are going to have to be *extremely* careful that they say the right things to the right voter groups.
It is also a former Labour seat . Labour voters have shifted around a lot there - to LD in 2005 then SNP in 2015 before reverting to LD in 2017. Under the right circumstances the seat could be a four -way contest.
Agreed. But the “right circumstances” for Scottish Labour look to be so far in the future as to be irrelevant for current analysis.
East Dunbartonshire was certainly a four-way marginal for a long period, but it is now a three-way fight.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
If you really think that the Miners Strike was just a bit of drama and a lot of noise you need to do a lot of learning about what happened and what it meant. The indifference to the difficulties being put deliberately in the way of businesses, to the possibility of them going bust, to the possible loss of jobs is utterly chilling.
One reason for the closure of the mines was that they were unprofitable.
No Deal Brexit risks deliberately making profitable businesses and sectors unprofitable, as a matter of government policy. It is in some ways even worse than the Miners Strike and that was quite bad enough. No decent government would deliberately seek to inflict something like that on its people. And for what? Because it does not want to lose a little bit of face in getting an extension so that it can try and negotiate a better transitional deal.
Not just that. The Thatcher government spent years preparing for the strike. Loads of coal was stockpiled, what with how you can stockpile coal. And that was dislocation in one supply chain. And the NUM weren't a smart opponent. And it was a remarkably close-run thing. Apart from that Halloween Brexit will be just like the minersm strike.
What intrigues me is this: if No Deal really is going to be a national trauma, the people who would truly know this are inside the Cabinet. They get the briefings and the intel.
Yet still they steer the boat towards that cliff-edge. It's a puzzle.
There are three possible answers to the puzzle.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Not insane. They are trapped into supporting No Deal because it's the only Brexit outcome that hasn't been tried so far and found wanting. So they wishfully think/hope the EU will save them or worst case it won't be so bad after all.
To paraphrase Churchill no deal is the worst possible outcome... except for every alternative.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
That's what I think.
Remainers have been so apocalyptic that merely troublesome will be a success.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
Absolutely. And I don't recall being asked for a phytosanitary certificate when we landed at Omaha in '44.
"we" didn't land at Omaha. Unless you are an American. If you're going to use hackneyed WW2 metaphors at least get it right. (apologies if you were taking the piss, it's hard to know these days).
The Scottish Labour Party is in crisis, and the Westminster mothership isn’t helping
What the hell is happening to the Scottish Labour Party? Its crisis – this abject and sustained collapse into near-obsolescence – is real and deep and profound and not obviously fixable. The party at Holyrood is in the hands of third-raters.
The Labour leadership are clearly happy to sell their Scottish colleagues down the river if it gets them into No 10. The further suspicion is that they anyway hold no great attachment to the integrity of the UK, regarding its make-up as an imperial hangover. A united Ireland and an independent Scotland would mean an end to all that.
A former Blair-era cabinet minister had his head in his hands recently when discussing the state of the Scottish party. “I just don’t know how we come back from this,” he said. Leonard has been a catastrophically poor choice of leader, nervy, pink-faced, lacking charisma, with no pitch to mainstream Scotland, unable to land a punch on either of the formidable women leading his main rivals. Even then, it’s not clear who could replace him and make much of a difference. Talent has scarpered from both the candidates’ list and even the parliamentary party.
In the end, it is the collapse of Scottish Labour that may well prove to be the midwife of independence. But it’s hard to believe Jeremy Corbyn cares all that much.
So, in a desperate attempt not to be completely demoralised by Steven Smith, what are we really looking for here? I would suggest that we are looking for a way back to May's deal with whatever tweak Boris can apply to it. It is a transitional agreement which preserves SM access for its duration and gives us the time, for example, to roll over EU deals should we choose at the end of that period to cut out on our own.
Reasonable remainers (which I still believe exist) made a terrible mistake voting against that deal. It also kept us so closely tied to the EU for the transition that a differently minded government would easily be able to guide us back in again if elected in that period. Everything remains to be played for and the overwhelming stench caused by the callous disregard for democracy is defused because we will, at least technically have left.
What we really need is about 100 opposition remainers to acknowledge that they made a mistake voting down May's deal 3x and promise to vote for it as an alternative to no deal. At that point the views of the maniacs in the ERG become of little to no importance, as they would have been had the remainers voted that way on a previous occasion.
From Boris' point of view this is also ok because he can make it clear that the transition period will also be used to find an alternative to the backstop that actually works and to undertake the work that May and Hammond failed to do since 2016. Can he contrive this? Is there any such grouping in the Commons? Probably not but it is for me the only sensible way ahead.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
Absolutely. And I don't recall being asked for a phytosanitary certificate when we landed at Omaha in '44.
"we" didn't land at Omaha. Unless you are an American. If you're going to use hackneyed WW2 metaphors at least get it right. (apologies if you were taking the piss, it's hard to know these days).
It was a long time ago and his memory’s not what it was, poor lamb.
Earlier our Turnip master in the north repeated a much vaunted Nat claim that before the SindyRef campaign support for independence was at 20% and they put on 24 points during the campaign. I decided to do a wee fact check.
Average 'No' Lead:
2013: 16.6% 2014 - Before campaign:11.6% Result: 10.6%
So rather than "putting on 24 points" it looks like the Campaign put on "1" point in the year it was held.
I suspect the "we started on 20" claim comes from one poll from 2011.....
In 2011 when the campaign started it was at around 20% when it finished it was at 45% and that after the bribes at the end, which the fools fell for and as usual were duped by perfidious Albion
At the risk of indulging the psychologically notable Unionist desire to refight old battles, Yes Scotland was set up in May 2012, Better Ttogether in June 2012. The average polling from Jun-Dec 2013 was a 21% No lead. I wonder who had the more successful subsequent campaign?
Better Together fought an incredibly inept campaign and nearly lost the Union. But it would not be in our interests if they admitted the truth. It is far better for Scotland if Unionism continues to live in its fairytale bubble. Their dream will soon be over.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
If you really think that the Miners Strike was just a bit of drama and a lot of noise you need to do a lot of learning about what happened and what it meant. The indifference to the difficulties being put deliberately in the way of businesses, to the possibility of them going bust, to the possible loss of jobs is utterly chilling.
One reason for the closure of the mines was that they were unprofitable.
No Deal Brexit risks deliberately making profitable businesses and sectors unprofitable, as a matter of government policy. It is in some ways even worse than the Miners Strike and that was quite bad enough. No decent government would deliberately seek to inflict something like that on its people. And for what? Because it does not want to lose a little bit of face in getting an extension so that it can try and negotiate a better transitional deal.
Not just that. The Thatcher government spent years preparing for the strike. Loads of coal was stockpiled, what with how you can stockpile coal. And that was dislocation in one supply chain. And the NUM weren't a smart opponent. And it was a remarkably close-run thing. Apart from that Halloween Brexit will be just like the minersm strike.
Indeed the legacy of the Miners Strike lives on. The issue was the destruction of mining communities in favour of a post industrial service economy based in the Metropolis. Those former coalfield towns got their revenge served cold. Served as a cold Brexit.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
But the Boris plan is working.. To get a deal the EU have to be totally convinced he is prepared to No Deal. If they are convinced compromise will follow.
Ironically, Boris/Cummings might now be praying for Corbyn to succeed and stop Brexit before calling an election which Boris can then fight on behalf of the people against the politicians.
Yes, but I think that is plan B.
Plan A is to deliver Brexit with a deal and then an election in spring 2020 to cash in the credit which would (quite rightly) accrue from that.
The Scottish Labour Party is in crisis, and the Westminster mothership isn’t helping
What the hell is happening to the Scottish Labour Party? Its crisis – this abject and sustained collapse into near-obsolescence – is real and deep and profound and not obviously fixable. The party at Holyrood is in the hands of third-raters.
The Labour leadership are clearly happy to sell their Scottish colleagues down the river if it gets them into No 10. The further suspicion is that they anyway hold no great attachment to the integrity of the UK, regarding its make-up as an imperial hangover. A united Ireland and an independent Scotland would mean an end to all that.
A former Blair-era cabinet minister had his head in his hands recently when discussing the state of the Scottish party. “I just don’t know how we come back from this,” he said. Leonard has been a catastrophically poor choice of leader, nervy, pink-faced, lacking charisma, with no pitch to mainstream Scotland, unable to land a punch on either of the formidable women leading his main rivals. Even then, it’s not clear who could replace him and make much of a difference. Talent has scarpered from both the candidates’ list and even the parliamentary party.
In the end, it is the collapse of Scottish Labour that may well prove to be the midwife of independence. But it’s hard to believe Jeremy Corbyn cares all that much.
When Jeremy Corbyn eventually retires having helped the UK leave the EU and then break-up he will do so a very happy man indeed.
Well, quite.
All political careers end in failure? Maybe not all!
Exhibit A: Jeremy Corbyn
1. got the UK out the Common Market 2. achieved a United Ireland 3. enabled dissolution of the United Kingdom 4. crippled Toryism for half a century 5. created the right conditions for Eco-leftism to prosper in England
Not a bad effort for a drab cold-war leftover, who for decades was horribly uncomfortable on the edges of Blair’s New Labour project.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
But the Boris plan is working.. To get a deal the EU have to be totally convinced he is prepared to No Deal. If they are convinced compromise will follow.
They are convinced it is No Deal, and quite willing to let it happen. The people doing the headless chicken act are in our government, not theirs.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
But if the government plan is to Really Do This, they're going about it in an awfully rum way. To make a success of a Halloween no deal, everyone in the county needs to know exactly what to do. The government information stream needs to be urgent and functional. Think how long the public information campaigns were when phone numbers changed to 071/081! Instead, it's all commemorative coins, and follow us on Instagram to learn how great the opportunities are. It's fundamentally unserious.
So- does he want to be stopped, win an election based on Public Fury, and then make something up once he has five years and a big majority? Seems too clever by half.
Earlier our Turnip master in the north repeated a much vaunted Nat claim that before the SindyRef campaign support for independence was at 20% and they put on 24 points during the campaign. I decided to do a wee fact check.
Average 'No' Lead:
2013: 16.6% 2014 - Before campaign:11.6% Result: 10.6%
So rather than "putting on 24 points" it looks like the Campaign put on "1" point in the year it was held.
I suspect the "we started on 20" claim comes from one poll from 2011.....
In 2011 when the campaign started it was at around 20% when it finished it was at 45% and that after the bribes at the end, which the fools fell for and as usual were duped by perfidious Albion
At the risk of indulging the psychologically notable Unionist desire to refight old battles, Yes Scotland was set up in May 2012, Better Ttogether in June 2012. The average polling from Jun-Dec 2013 was a 21% No lead. I wonder who had the more successful subsequent campaign?
Better Together fought an incredibly inept campaign and nearly lost the Union. But it would not be in our interests if they admitted the truth. It is far better for Scotland if Unionism continues to live in its fairytale bubble. Their dream will soon be over.
The Better Together campaign was inept. It was led by Darling and others who seemed mildly ashamed to be British, particularly when the UK had a Tory led government. It was apologetic and mumbly in its messaging.
The focus on the imbecility of the economics of independence thankfully was sufficient but only just and left all the heart and passion to the SNP. It was incredibly frustrating and the frustration bordering on anger I found on the doorstep was palpable even in SNP led Dundee. Only a just emerging Ruth Davidson and, latterly, Gordon Brown made a positive case for the union. Appalling.
The Scottish Labour Party is in crisis, and the Westminster mothership isn’t helping
What the hell is happening to the Scottish Labour Party? Its crisis – this abject and sustained collapse into near-obsolescence – is real and deep and profound and not obviously fixable. The party at Holyrood is in the hands of third-raters.
The Labour leadership are clearly happy to sell their Scottish colleagues down the river if it gets them into No 10. The further suspicion is that they anyway hold no great attachment to the integrity of the UK, regarding its make-up as an imperial hangover. A united Ireland and an independent Scotland would mean an end to all that.
A former Blair-era cabinet minister had his head in his hands recently when discussing the state of the Scottish party. “I just don’t know how we come back from this,” he said. Leonard has been a catastrophically poor choice of leader, nervy, pink-faced, lacking charisma, with no pitch to mainstream Scotland, unable to land a punch on either of the formidable women leading his main rivals. Even then, it’s not clear who could replace him and make much of a difference. Talent has scarpered from both the candidates’ list and even the parliamentary party.
In the end, it is the collapse of Scottish Labour that may well prove to be the midwife of independence. But it’s hard to believe Jeremy Corbyn cares all that much.
When Jeremy Corbyn eventually retires having helped the UK leave the EU and then break-up he will do so a very happy man indeed.
Well, quite.
All political careers end in failure? Maybe not all!
Exhibit A: Jeremy Corbyn
1. got the UK out the Common Market 2. achieved a United Ireland 3. enabled dissolution of the United Kingdom 4. crippled Toryism for half a century 5. created the right conditions for Eco-leftism to prosper in England
Not a bad effort for a drab cold-war leftover, who for decades was horribly uncomfortable on the edges of Blair’s New Labour project.
He is not the Jezziah, just John the Baptist for the one to come.
So, in a desperate attempt not to be completely demoralised by Steven Smith, what are we really looking for here? I would suggest that we are looking for a way back to May's deal with whatever tweak Boris can apply to it. It is a transitional agreement which preserves SM access for its duration and gives us the time, for example, to roll over EU deals should we choose at the end of that period to cut out on our own.
Reasonable remainers (which I still believe exist) made a terrible mistake voting against that deal. It also kept us so closely tied to the EU for the transition that a differently minded government would easily be able to guide us back in again if elected in that period. Everything remains to be played for and the overwhelming stench caused by the callous disregard for democracy is defused because we will, at least technically have left.
What we really need is about 100 opposition remainers to acknowledge that they made a mistake voting down May's deal 3x and promise to vote for it as an alternative to no deal. At that point the views of the maniacs in the ERG become of little to no importance, as they would have been had the remainers voted that way on a previous occasion.
From Boris' point of view this is also ok because he can make it clear that the transition period will also be used to find an alternative to the backstop that actually works and to undertake the work that May and Hammond failed to do since 2016. Can he contrive this? Is there any such grouping in the Commons? Probably not but it is for me the only sensible way ahead.
I think this is - in essence - the actual plan A.
Then fight an election off the back of it. Spring 2020.
But if thwarted by a successful VONC, the preferred fallback is to fight an election this autumn on a populist 'People vs Quislings' platform. This election to be pre-Brexit since an extension will if necessary be agreed to allow it.
Then if Johnson wins, back to plan A - try to get a deal through.
Either way, no No Deal - which is why I am laying it like a lion. Well, ish.
So, in a desperate attempt not to be completely demoralised by Steven Smith, what are we really looking for here? I would suggest that we are looking for a way back to May's deal with whatever tweak Boris can apply to it. It is a transitional agreement which preserves SM access for its duration and gives us the time, for example, to roll over EU deals should we choose at the end of that period to cut out on our own.
Reasonable remainers (which I still believe exist) made a terrible mistake voting against that deal. It also kept us so closely tied to the EU for the transition that a differently minded government would easily be able to guide us back in again if elected in that period. Everything remains to be played for and the overwhelming stench caused by the callous disregard for democracy is defused because we will, at least technically have left.
What we really need is about 100 opposition remainers to acknowledge that they made a mistake voting down May's deal 3x and promise to vote for it as an alternative to no deal. At that point the views of the maniacs in the ERG become of little to no importance, as they would have been had the remainers voted that way on a previous occasion.
From Boris' point of view this is also ok because he can make it clear that the transition period will also be used to find an alternative to the backstop that actually works and to undertake the work that May and Hammond failed to do since 2016. Can he contrive this? Is there any such grouping in the Commons? Probably not but it is for me the only sensible way ahead.
I think this is - in essence - the actual plan A.
Then fight an election off the back of it. Spring 2020.
But if thwarted by a successful VONC, the fallback (plan is to fight an election this autumn on a populist 'People vs Quislings' platform. This election to be pre-Brexit since an extension will if necessary be agreed to allow it.
Then if Johnson wins, back to plan A - try to get a deal through.
Either way, no No Deal - which is why I am laying it like a lion. Well, ish.
I have that impression as well although Boris is being uncharacteristically subtle about it. How does he get the deal back on the table? That is the challenge.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
Absolutely. And I don't recall being asked for a phytosanitary certificate when we landed at Omaha in '44.
"we" didn't land at Omaha. Unless you are an American. If you're going to use hackneyed WW2 metaphors at least get it right. (apologies if you were taking the piss, it's hard to know these days).
Apologies accepted. You seem to be at least fractionally brighter than Streeter.
I have that impression as well although Boris is being uncharacteristically subtle about it. How does he get the deal back on the table? That is the challenge.
He probably just dresses up the WA with a few meaningless tweaks, then tries to ram it through.
Would need 20 more MPs first though, which means a GE pre-Brexit, presumably with a "they're blocking Brexit" campaign to lure back BXP voters.
Earlier our Turnip master in the north repeated a much vaunted Nat claim that before the SindyRef campaign support for independence was at 20% and they put on 24 points during the campaign. I decided to do a wee fact check.
Average 'No' Lead:
2013: 16.6% 2014 - Before campaign:11.6% Result: 10.6%
So rather than "putting on 24 points" it looks like the Campaign put on "1" point in the year it was held.
I suspect the "we started on 20" claim comes from one poll from 2011.....
In 2011 when the campaign started it was at around 20% when it finished it was at 45% and that after the bribes at the end, which the fools fell for and as usual were duped by perfidious Albion
At the risk of indulging the psychologically notable Unionist desire to refight old battles, Yes Scotland was set up in May 2012, Better Ttogether in June 2012. The average polling from Jun-Dec 2013 was a 21% No lead. I wonder who had the more successful subsequent campaign?
Better Together fought an incredibly inept campaign and nearly lost the Union. But it would not be in our interests if they admitted the truth. It is far better for Scotland if Unionism continues to live in its fairytale bubble. Their dream will soon be over.
The Better Together campaign was inept. It was led by Darling and others who seemed mildly ashamed to be British, particularly when the UK had a Tory led government. It was apologetic and mumbly in its messaging.
The focus on the imbecility of the economics of independence thankfully was sufficient but only just and left all the heart and passion to the SNP. It was incredibly frustrating and the frustration bordering on anger I found on the doorstep was palpable even in SNP led Dundee. Only a just emerging Ruth Davidson and, latterly, Gordon Brown made a positive case for the union. Appalling.
Indeed - and Darling was disastrous in the second Debate with Salmond.Why on earth did he fail to counter Salmond's accusation of Labour ganging up with the Tories by reminding the audience of how the SNP had opened the doors to Downing Street for Thatcher? I recall shouting in anger at the television screen.
I have that impression as well although Boris is being uncharacteristically subtle about it. How does he get the deal back on the table? That is the challenge.
He probably just dresses up the WA with a few meaningless tweaks, then tries to ram it through.
Would need 20 more MPs first though, which means a GE pre-Brexit, presumably with a "they're blocking Brexit" campaign to lure back BXP voters.
A dangerous tactic. When Heath asked "Who governs Britain?" at a GE, he didn't get the answer that he wanted.
Earlier our Turnip master in the north repeated a much vaunted Nat claim that before the SindyRef campaign support for independence was at 20% and they put on 24 points during the campaign. I decided to do a wee fact check.
Average 'No' Lead:
2013: 16.6% 2014 - Before campaign:11.6% Result: 10.6%
So rather than "putting on 24 points" it looks like the Campaign put on "1" point in the year it was held.
I suspect the "we started on 20" claim comes from one poll from 2011.....
In 2011 when the campaign started it was at around 20% when it finished it was at 45% and that after the bribes at the end, which the fools fell for and as usual were duped by perfidious Albion
At the risk of indulging the psychologically notable Unionist desire to refight old battles, Yes Scotland was set up in May 2012, Better Ttogether in June 2012. The average polling from Jun-Dec 2013 was a 21% No lead. I wonder who had the more successful subsequent campaign?
Better Together fought an incredibly inept campaign and nearly lost the Union. But it would not be in our interests if they admitted the truth. It is far better for Scotland if Unionism continues to live in its fairytale bubble. Their dream will soon be over.
The Better Together campaign was inept. It was led by Darling and others who seemed mildly ashamed to be British, particularly when the UK had a Tory led government. It was apologetic and mumbly in its messaging.
The focus on the imbecility of the economics of independence thankfully was sufficient but only just and left all the heart and passion to the SNP. It was incredibly frustrating and the frustration bordering on anger I found on the doorstep was palpable even in SNP led Dundee. Only a just emerging Ruth Davidson and, latterly, Gordon Brown made a positive case for the union. Appalling.
Indeed - and Darling was disastrous in the second Debate with Salmond.Why on earth did he fail to counter Salmond's accusation of Labour ganging up with the Tories by reminding the audience of how the SNP had opened the doors to Downing Street for Thatcher? I recall shouting in anger at the television screen.
That night was about the only point in the campaign when I thought, we could lose this. I remember canvassing the next day and the dismay and determination were palpable from every BT supporter we spoke to but we were all scared about the undecided. Difficult times.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
If it's true that an extension for fresh talks would be career suicide it will not be happening - since one thing on which all agree is that the Great Man is not indifferent to his personal prospects.
But would it be? Is there appetite amongst Tory MPs for another leadership contest? I sense not. I think he'd get the time. Which he uses to get a deal done and THEN he fights and wins that election. Spring 2020. This, in my admittedly niche opinion, is the Johnson plan. And if it comes off he WILL be a Great Man.
If stopped by the HoC - OK - the 2nd best option for him is not terrible. A short extension to fight a pre-Brexit GE this autumn on a National Populist ticket, with a good chance of winning - but not as good as his prospects in the preferred GE in spring 2020 post a negotiated Brexit.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
There is nothing left but process arguments. Leavers now see 2016 as a forfeit-based bet whereby the loser has to eat a shit sandwich. A bet's a bet, so shit sandwich time it is.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
If you really think that the Miners Strike was just a bit of drama and a lot of noise you need to do a lot of learning about what happened and what it meant. The indifference to the difficulties being put deliberately in the way of businesses, to the possibility of them going bust, to the possible loss of jobs is utterly chilling.
One reason for the closure of the mines was that they were unprofitable.
No Deal Brexit risks deliberately making profitable businesses and sectors unprofitable, as a matter of government policy. It is in some ways even worse than the Miners Strike and that was quite bad enough. No decent government would deliberately seek to inflict something like that on its people. And for what? Because it does not want to lose a little bit of face in getting an extension so that it can try and negotiate a better transitional deal.
Not just that. The Thatcher government spent years preparing for the strike. Loads of coal was stockpiled, what with how you can stockpile coal. And that was dislocation in one supply chain. And the NUM weren't a smart opponent. And it was a remarkably close-run thing. Apart from that Halloween Brexit will be just like the minersm strike.
What intrigues me is this: if No Deal really is going to be a national trauma, the people who would truly know this are inside the Cabinet. They get the briefings and the intel.
Yet still they steer the boat towards that cliff-edge. It's a puzzle.
There are three possible answers to the puzzle.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Or possibility 4: they don’t care because they will be insulated from the consequences.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
So, in a desperate attempt not to be completely demoralised by Steven Smith, what are we really looking for here? I would suggest that we are looking for a way back to May's deal with whatever tweak Boris can apply to it. It is a transitional agreement which preserves SM access for its duration and gives us the time, for example, to roll over EU deals should we choose at the end of that period to cut out on our own.
Reasonable remainers (which I still believe exist) made a terrible mistake voting against that deal. It also kept us so closely tied to the EU for the transition that a differently minded government would easily be able to guide us back in again if elected in that period. Everything remains to be played for and the overwhelming stench caused by the callous disregard for democracy is defused because we will, at least technically have left.
What we really need is about 100 opposition remainers to acknowledge that they made a mistake voting down May's deal 3x and promise to vote for it as an alternative to no deal. At that point the views of the maniacs in the ERG become of little to no importance, as they would have been had the remainers voted that way on a previous occasion.
From Boris' point of view this is also ok because he can make it clear that the transition period will also be used to find an alternative to the backstop that actually works and to undertake the work that May and Hammond failed to do since 2016. Can he contrive this? Is there any such grouping in the Commons? Probably not but it is for me the only sensible way ahead.
If that's the plan it won't work, because in that case what Johnson intends is completely at odds to what he is doing and saying. Remainers, reasonable or otherwise, have zero incentive to believe it or go along with it.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
If you really think that the Miners Strike was just a bit of drama and a lot of noise you need to do a lot of learning about what happened and what it meant. The indifference to the difficulties being put deliberately in the way of businesses, to the possibility of them going bust, to the possible loss of jobs is utterly chilling.
One reason for the closure of the mines was that they were unprofitable.
No Deal Brexit risks deliberately making profitable businesses and sectors unprofitable, as a matter of government policy. It is in some ways even worse than the Miners Strike and that was quite bad enough. No decent government would deliberately seek to inflict something like that on its people. And for what? Because it does not want to lose a little bit of face in getting an extension so that it can try and negotiate a better transitional deal.
Not just that. The Thatcher government spent years preparing for the strike. Loads of coal was stockpiled, what with how you can stockpile coal. And that was dislocation in one supply chain. And the NUM weren't a smart opponent. And it was a remarkably close-run thing. Apart from that Halloween Brexit will be just like the minersm strike.
Indeed the legacy of the Miners Strike lives on. The issue was the destruction of mining communities in favour of a post industrial service economy based in the Metropolis. Those former coalfield towns got their revenge served cold. Served as a cold Brexit.
And will likely suffer all over again in a No Deal Brexit.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
There is nothing left but process arguments. Leavers now see 2016 as a forfeit-based bet whereby the loser has to eat a shit sandwich. A bet's a bet, so shit sandwich time it is.
The current situation is a disaster - as would revoke or delay.
Cummings has it spot on - we have to get on with leaving.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
If you really think that the Miners Strike was just a bit of drama and a lot of noise you need to do a lot of learning about what happened and what it meant. The indifference to the difficulties being put deliberately in the way of businesses, to the possibility of them going bust, to the possible loss of jobs is utterly chilling.
One reason for the closure of the mines was that they were unprofitable.
No Deal Brexit risks deliberately making profitable businesses and sectors unprofitable, as a matter of government policy. It is in some ways even worse than the Miners Strike and that was quite bad enough. No decent government would deliberately seek to inflict something like that on its people. And for what? Because it does not want to lose a little bit of face in getting an extension so that it can try and negotiate a better transitional deal.
Not just that. The Thatcher government spent years preparing for the strike. Loads of coal was stockpiled, what with how you can stockpile coal. And that was dislocation in one supply chain. And the NUM weren't a smart opponent. And it was a remarkably close-run thing. Apart from that Halloween Brexit will be just like the minersm strike.
Indeed the legacy of the Miners Strike lives on. The issue was the destruction of mining communities in favour of a post industrial service economy based in the Metropolis. Those former coalfield towns got their revenge served cold. Served as a cold Brexit.
And will likely suffer all over again in a No Deal Brexit.
They will indeed, but they will blame those that voted Remain. There is nothing so ungrateful as a voter who gets what he asked for.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to https://twitter.com/RussellEngland/status/1162412085692772352?s=19. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
There is nothing left but process arguments. Leavers now see 2016 as a forfeit-based bet whereby the loser has to eat a shit sandwich. A bet's a bet, so shit sandwich time it is.
The current situation is a disaster - as would revoke or delay.
Cummings has it spot on - we have to get on with leaving.
Leave is not about economics, that is where Remainers continue to go wrong. It is about being beastly to foreigners, something that plays well to the cheap seats.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
Believe it or not, we voted to leave the EU because we don’t want to be in the EU. Not every decision is about whether it makes you better off.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
If you really think that the Miners Strike was just a bit of drama and a lot of noise you need to do a lot of learning about what happened and what it meant. The indifference to the difficulties being put deliberately in the way of businesses, to the possibility of them going bust, to the possible loss of jobs is utterly chilling.
One reason for the closure of the mines was that they were unprofitable.
No Deal Brexit risks deliberately making profitable businesses and sectors unprofitable, as a matter of government policy. It is in some ways even worse than the Miners Strike and that was quite bad enough. No decent government would deliberately seek to inflict something like that on its people. And for what? Because it does not want to lose a little bit of face in getting an extension so that it can try and negotiate a better transitional deal.
Not just that. The Thatcher government spent years preparing for the strike. Loads of coal was stockpiled, what with how you can stockpile coal. And that was dislocation in one supply chain. And the NUM weren't a smart opponent. And it was a remarkably close-run thing. Apart from that Halloween Brexit will be just like the minersm strike.
Indeed the legacy of the Miners Strike lives on. The issue was the destruction of mining communities in favour of a post industrial service economy based in the Metropolis. Those former coalfield towns got their revenge served cold. Served as a cold Brexit.
And will likely suffer all over again in a No Deal Brexit.
They will indeed, but they will blame those that voted Remain. There is nothing so ungrateful as a voter who gets what he asked for.
They will also blame the government who presided over the mess, a point which seems lost on Tory Brexiteers.
Has anyone considered that for once in his miserable life Corbyn played a blinder last week, and Ms. Swinson walked into the trap?
Why would Corbyn want to go anywhere near Brexit when, Johnson having painted himself into a corner, could well make a horlicks of the whole issue without any help from Jezza? He has however made a (hollow?) gesture that he could use, in future, as a fig leaf when questioned as to why he didn't do more to prevent no deal. He can finger-point in that event at both Mr Johnson and Ms Swinson.
PB Tories are convinced Corbyn will do anything to become PM and impose his style of Soviet government on us. Did he too have a childhood dream to become 'World King'? I suspect not, he is far too lazy and the thought of actually doing anything (positive or negative) would fill him with dread. Let's face it he has done exactly zip as LOTO, other than to alienate pink Tories on the right of his party. Besides, why get involved with saving Brexit when, if it all unravels Corbyn is the one in the driving seat to deliver his Soviet dream with minimal effort.
We will leave on 31st October without a deal. What happens after that is anyone's guess. It could be unicorns gently grazing the sunlit uplands, or it could be martial law, or more likely something moderately unpleasant inbetween.
A lot of people seem surprised that someone who has been a full time politician all his life who obsesses over politics might actually be quite good at politics.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
If you really think that the Miners Strike was just a bit of drama and a lot of noise you need to do a lot of learning about what happened and what it meant. The indifference to the difficulties being put deliberately in the way of businesses, to the possibility of them going bust, to the possible loss of jobs is utterly chilling.
One reason for the closure of the mines was that they were unprofitable.
No Deal Brexit risks deliberately making profitable businesses and sectors unprofitable, as a matter of government policy. It is in some ways even worse than the Miners Strike and that was quite bad enough. No decent government would deliberately seek to inflict something like that on its people. And for what? Because it does not want to lose a little bit of face in getting an extension so that it can try and negotiate a better transitional deal.
Not just that. The Thatcher government spent years preparing for the strike. Loads of coal was stockpiled, what with how you can stockpile coal. And that was dislocation in one supply chain. And the NUM weren't a smart opponent. And it was a remarkably close-run thing. Apart from that Halloween Brexit will be just like the minersm strike.
Indeed the legacy of the Miners Strike lives on. The issue was the destruction of mining communities in favour of a post industrial service economy based in the Metropolis. Those former coalfield towns got their revenge served cold. Served as a cold Brexit.
And will likely suffer all over again in a No Deal Brexit.
They will indeed, but they will blame those that voted Remain. There is nothing so ungrateful as a voter who gets what he asked for.
Rentoul seems to be getting in on the blame everyone except ourselves act.
Was it Andy Roberts who had two deliveries - a slower one that hit the batsman's helmet because he played too early, and a quicker one that hit his head because he played too late?
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
Believe it or not, we voted to leave the EU because we don’t want to be in the EU. Not every decision is about whether it makes you better off.
"The second, and more important factor is that if Remainers’ main plan to stop no deal is a government of national unity, you can safely assume that we will leave the European Union on 31 October – with the only question being who gets the blame."
I find it hard to believe anyone seriously think swe are not going to No Deal. Johnson, of course, will be blamed, but I suspect that Corbyn's little wheeze is going to end up backfiring on him.
I do hope the membership realise what he has done, even if it is too late to stop it. Hopefully their wrath will see the end of him and his benighted crew.
The Tories will be out of power for five decades when this insanity is all over.
*Yawn*
When this is over it will be like the Miners Strike. Some drama, a lot of noise but ultimately we'll be better off and free to act accordingly without being held back by vested interests.
Absolutely. And I don't recall being asked for a phytosanitary certificate when we landed at Omaha in '44.
"we" didn't land at Omaha. Unless you are an American. If you're going to use hackneyed WW2 metaphors at least get it right. (apologies if you were taking the piss, it's hard to know these days).
Apologies accepted. You seem to be at least fractionally brighter than Streeter.
Thanks. I thought Brexit had killed satire, but well done for keeping it alive.
1. They don't expect No Deal to happen, they expect the EU to blink or the government to be VONC'd
2. They genuinely believe, having read the advice, that No Deal will not be so bad.
3. They are insane.
Variation of 1 is IMO most likely.
It's a bluff. There is no intention to No Deal.
Either VONC and extension for election.
Or if no VONC, extension for fresh talks and no election. Roll this into 2020.
2nd being plan A and the 1st plan B.
I don't buy that. If Boris simply extends into 2020 he commits career suicide. He'd probably be toppled by his own hardliners, working with the Remainers.
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands? Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
Believe it or not, we voted to leave the EU because we don’t want to be in the EU. Not every decision is about whether it makes you better off.
You and how many others? Did nobody want the Sunlit Uplands, Easy Deals and £350m/week for the NHS?
I have that impression as well although Boris is being uncharacteristically subtle about it. How does he get the deal back on the table? That is the challenge.
I think it will be presented as EU capitulates in the face of our new resolution and agrees to fresh talks with no pre-conditions. Then out of that comes a 'Boris Deal' which is in essence the WA but has just enough variation to be able to claim it as a big improvement.
Own property, or bringing up a family, in Cornwall or Devon? Welcome to your new neighbour: the shadow of nuclear apocalypse. (Note how the article euphemistically calls it “a munitions facility”. Ho ho.)
“... the most feasible plan would be to relocate the assets to England.
Professor Chalmers suggested HMNB Devonport, which already hosts Royal Navy submarines, could provide a base for the nuclear submarines themselves, while land on the Fal estuary to the North of Falmouth, which offers a comparatively isolated location, could be developed as a munitions facility.
Prof Chalmers admitted there could be significant local resistance to such proposals, especially in Falmouth, which is a popular tourist destination, adding: “It would require the uk to make the case for the nuclear deterrent all over again.””
Own property, or bringing up a family, in Cornwall or Devon? Welcome to your new neighbour: the shadow of nuclear apocalypse. (Note how the article euphemistically calls it “a munitions facility”. Ho ho.)
“... the most feasible plan would be to relocate the assets to England.
Professor Chalmers suggested HMNB Devonport, which already hosts Royal Navy submarines, could provide a base for the nuclear submarines themselves, while land on the Fal estuary to the North of Falmouth, which offers a comparatively isolated location, could be developed as a munitions facility.
Prof Chalmers admitted there could be significant local resistance to such proposals, especially in Falmouth, which is a popular tourist destination, adding: “It would require the uk to make the case for the nuclear deterrent all over again.””
I would have thought the obvious places would be on Anglesey - Holyhead or even Amlwch. Fairly remote, already used to nuclear facilities on their doorstep, good road and rail links, close to other military bases. And not very far from the shipyards at Barrow while at the same time also relatively secure (although not as secure as Helensburgh).
Moreover, Anglesey is so desperate for sources of employment they would be unlikely to kick up a fuss about the nuclear aspect.
Own property, or bringing up a family, in Cornwall or Devon? Welcome to your new neighbour: the shadow of nuclear apocalypse. (Note how the article euphemistically calls it “a munitions facility”. Ho ho.)
“... the most feasible plan would be to relocate the assets to England.
Professor Chalmers suggested HMNB Devonport, which already hosts Royal Navy submarines, could provide a base for the nuclear submarines themselves, while land on the Fal estuary to the North of Falmouth, which offers a comparatively isolated location, could be developed as a munitions facility.
Prof Chalmers admitted there could be significant local resistance to such proposals, especially in Falmouth, which is a popular tourist destination, adding: “It would require the uk to make the case for the nuclear deterrent all over again.””
There are already 13 defunct nuclear subs that nobody knows what the fuck to do with rottimg away at Guzz. Bringing the boomers there from the Republic of Salmondia isn't going to make much difference.
The Scottish Labour Party is in crisis, and the Westminster mothership isn’t helping
What the hell is happening to the Scottish Labour Party? Its crisis – this abject and sustained collapse into near-obsolescence – is real and deep and profound and not obviously fixable. The party at Holyrood is in the hands of third-raters.
The Labour leadership are clearly happy to sell their Scottish colleagues down the river if it gets them into No 10. The further suspicion is that they anyway hold no great attachment to the integrity of the UK, regarding its make-up as an imperial hangover. A united Ireland and an independent Scotland would mean an end to all that.
A former Blair-era cabinet minister had his head in his hands recently when discussing the state of the Scottish party. “I just don’t know how we come back from this,” he said. Leonard has been a catastrophically poor choice of leader, nervy, pink-faced, lacking charisma, with no pitch to mainstream Scotland, unable to land a punch on either of the formidable women leading his main rivals. Even then, it’s not clear who could replace him and make much of a difference. Talent has scarpered from both the candidates’ list and even the parliamentary party.
In the end, it is the collapse of Scottish Labour that may well prove to be the midwife of independence. But it’s hard to believe Jeremy Corbyn cares all that much.
Scottish Labour's collapse was in 2015, it is the Scottish Tories revival in 2017 that stopped the momentum for independence and the Scottish LD revival too recently has stopped much further SNP progress even if Slab remains in the doldrums
The bitterness of Remainers that Scunthorpe steelworks isn't going to close is such a contrast to their glee when they thought it was.
Eh ?
For the last 3+ years there have been some Remainers who have been yearning for doom and disaster to befall the UK in general and for Leave voting areas in particular.
Comments
My hunch - and that is all it is - is that Boris and Co genuinely believe No Deal is manageable, and all the Project Fear 3.0 stuff is to their advantage: because when the reality turns out to be merely painful, but not apocalyptic, Boris will be seen as the hero that delivered Brexit. Then he can go on to win, quite easily, a swift post-Brexit election.
That must be the "plan". Who knows how misguided it is.
East Dunbartonshire was certainly a four-way marginal for a long period, but it is now a three-way fight.
Remainers have been so apocalyptic that merely troublesome will be a success.
https://twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/1162680229132820480?s=20
Reasonable remainers (which I still believe exist) made a terrible mistake voting against that deal. It also kept us so closely tied to the EU for the transition that a differently minded government would easily be able to guide us back in again if elected in that period. Everything remains to be played for and the overwhelming stench caused by the callous disregard for democracy is defused because we will, at least technically have left.
What we really need is about 100 opposition remainers to acknowledge that they made a mistake voting down May's deal 3x and promise to vote for it as an alternative to no deal. At that point the views of the maniacs in the ERG become of little to no importance, as they would have been had the remainers voted that way on a previous occasion.
From Boris' point of view this is also ok because he can make it clear that the transition period will also be used to find an alternative to the backstop that actually works and to undertake the work that May and Hammond failed to do since 2016. Can he contrive this? Is there any such grouping in the Commons? Probably not but it is for me the only sensible way ahead.
To get a deal the EU have to be totally convinced he is prepared to No Deal. If they are convinced compromise will follow.
Plan A is to deliver Brexit with a deal and then an election in spring 2020 to cash in the credit which would (quite rightly) accrue from that.
All political careers end in failure? Maybe not all!
Exhibit A: Jeremy Corbyn
1. got the UK out the Common Market
2. achieved a United Ireland
3. enabled dissolution of the United Kingdom
4. crippled Toryism for half a century
5. created the right conditions for Eco-leftism to prosper in England
Not a bad effort for a drab cold-war leftover, who for decades was horribly uncomfortable on the edges of Blair’s New Labour project.
To make a success of a Halloween no deal, everyone in the county needs to know exactly what to do. The government information stream needs to be urgent and functional. Think how long the public information campaigns were when phone numbers changed to 071/081!
Instead, it's all commemorative coins, and follow us on Instagram to learn how great the opportunities are. It's fundamentally unserious.
So- does he want to be stopped, win an election based on Public Fury, and then make something up once he has five years and a big majority? Seems too clever by half.
The focus on the imbecility of the economics of independence thankfully was sufficient but only just and left all the heart and passion to the SNP. It was incredibly frustrating and the frustration bordering on anger I found on the doorstep was palpable even in SNP led Dundee. Only a just emerging Ruth Davidson and, latterly, Gordon Brown made a positive case for the union. Appalling.
Then fight an election off the back of it. Spring 2020.
But if thwarted by a successful VONC, the preferred fallback is to fight an election this autumn on a populist 'People vs Quislings' platform. This election to be pre-Brexit since an extension will if necessary be agreed to allow it.
Then if Johnson wins, back to plan A - try to get a deal through.
Either way, no No Deal - which is why I am laying it like a lion. Well, ish.
Would need 20 more MPs first though, which means a GE pre-Brexit, presumably with a "they're blocking Brexit" campaign to lure back BXP voters.
https://twitter.com/RussellEngland/status/1162412085692772352?s=19
I'm nearly certain Johnson and Co are rationalising from No Deal and not to it. They have a decent chance of winning the next election. No Deal is part of the strategy for that. They have a low chance of making a success of Brexit on any recognisable criteria.
Smith obdurate.
Is there anybody left who thinks that we will be better off out of the EU? Are there still any believers in the Sunlit Uplands?
Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
But would it be? Is there appetite amongst Tory MPs for another leadership contest? I sense not. I think he'd get the time. Which he uses to get a deal done and THEN he fights and wins that election. Spring 2020. This, in my admittedly niche opinion, is the Johnson plan. And if it comes off he WILL be a Great Man.
If stopped by the HoC - OK - the 2nd best option for him is not terrible. A short extension to fight a pre-Brexit GE this autumn on a National Populist ticket, with a good chance of winning - but not as good as his prospects in the preferred GE in spring 2020 post a negotiated Brexit.
Or is it just that it won't be as bad as the Blitz?
There is nothing left but process arguments. Leavers now see 2016 as a forfeit-based bet whereby the loser has to eat a shit sandwich. A bet's a bet, so shit sandwich time it is.
Lots. About half the country in fact.
I can't see what's happening to Smith but it sounds rather nasty.
Now in comes their second best batsman...
(Just a thought - if he's out for the rest of this test, England have suddenly got a chance to win.)
Smith taken off for concussion.
Top bowling.
The current situation is a disaster - as would revoke or delay.
Cummings has it spot on - we have to get on with leaving.
Cummings has it spot on - we have to get on with leaving.
Leave is not about economics, that is where Remainers continue to go wrong. It is about being beastly to foreigners, something that plays well to the cheap seats.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1162693022351527941?s=20
He's being shockingly overbowled.
Did nobody want the Sunlit Uplands, Easy Deals and £350m/week for the NHS?
“... the most feasible plan would be to relocate the assets to England.
Professor Chalmers suggested HMNB Devonport, which already hosts Royal Navy submarines, could provide a base for the nuclear submarines themselves, while land on the Fal estuary to the North of Falmouth, which offers a comparatively isolated location, could be developed as a munitions facility.
Prof Chalmers admitted there could be significant local resistance to such proposals, especially in Falmouth, which is a popular tourist destination, adding: “It would require the uk to make the case for the nuclear deterrent all over again.””
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1166745/trident-scotland-nuclear-weapons-scottish-independence-snp-hmnb-clyde-faslane-falmouth/amp
Moreover, Anglesey is so desperate for sources of employment they would be unlikely to kick up a fuss about the nuclear aspect.
Northumberland is England's hidden gem