politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov

Second but not sure like who

And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

Very interesting poll. Can easily imagine Lab voters would go LD to stop the Tories. But for many it will depend on whether Swinson shows she is willing to work with Labour in some capacity.

Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

AlastairMeeks said:

Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

Shy Leavers? Leavers won't talk to pollsters because they're "part of the elite conspiracy against Brexit"? False recall?

Hard to know why, but there's potential for the polls to be very wrong as a result.

Gallowgate said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

What’s the significance?

YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

1) chance, in which case this is fine.
2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

Treat with caution.

So on these figures the LibDems would gain ten or a dozen Tory seats. Maybe a couple more with tactical voting.

Add in Tory losses to the SNP and they'll need at least 20 gains from Labour just to stand still.

Being just ahead in the 20 top marginals presumably indicates a gain of around ten seats for the LDs from the Tories. It's not a huge revival for the LDs, but on the other hand the Tories can't really afford to be losing any seats if they're hoping for a majority.

AlastairMeeks said:

Gallowgate said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

What’s the significance?

YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

1) chance, in which case this is fine.
2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

Treat with caution.

Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.

Recession Watch: 1/???

The US BLS releases data on Job Openings in its JOLTS survey. Alongside PMIs and the yield curve, this has been an excellent early warning recession sign.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm

Private sector job openings are now falling, and are now down year-over-year.

Now, the JOLTS survey is imperfect. It can show volatility. Nevertheless, it is yet another piece in the puzzle suggesting that the world economy is slowing markedly.

Nigelb said:

And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

Sanders is in the low teens in Iowa, barely above Buttigieg.

Why would the Labour vote be squeezed more than the Brexit vote?

JBriskinindyref2 said:

A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

Coalitionistas FTW

My hometown, Solihull, was one.

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

OblitusSumMe said:

Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

Richmond Park 0.07%
St Ives 0.61%
Cheltenham 4.51%
North Devon 7.78%
Cheadle 8.26%
Lewes 10.16%
St Albans 10.72%
Wells 12.46%
Hazel Grove 12.49%
North Cornwall 14.13%
Winchester 17.49%
Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
Yeovil 24.78%
Taunton Deane 25.20%
Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
Eastleigh 24.75%
Montgomeryshire 26.61%
Torbay 27.91%
Chippenham 29.10%

Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.

There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

There is certainly no mandate for Remain and No Deal Brexit is the default option so doesn't need a mandate. If the parties involved can't agree a deal then .......

Tbh, that's a poor result for the Lib Dems, they want to be at least 6-8 points ahead in the marginals by now.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1161370717960712193

Gallowgate said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.

There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.

Says who?

You can't transfer votes from our current system to votes under the awful PR system because they're different but its worth noting that in 2015 a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.

Plus in 2014 EU elections under PR a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.

That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.

No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1161328949688971264

AlastairMeeks said:

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.

So in other words you’re demanding an outcome that no one campaigned for. As I said, no mandate.

I want an acceptable deal. I don't demand an outcome. If we leave without a deal it will be largely down to Remainers who don't want to leave whether there's a deal or not. Where's the mandate for throwing your toys out of the pram?

ReggieCide said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.

That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.

That's tosh, utter tosh

No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

The UK is done.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

3rd place, 12.6pc

But do they get a pic for the top four? No


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.

That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.

That's tosh, utter tosh

No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

The UK is done.

Thank you - you prove my point. Tosh.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.

That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.

That's tosh, utter tosh

No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

The UK is done.

Dream on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dgrMSTalZ0

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.

That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.

That's tosh, utter tosh

No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

The UK is done.

Dream on

It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

If it is the same article as the Telegraph did two days ago then towards the end the journalist notes that Calais is under pressure from transfers of freight to Hull and other eastern ports that avoid the whole Kent/M2/Marston clusterfuck.

So, on balance, it could be all fine and dandy, or...

Or finer and dandier.

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.

Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Benpointer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

3rd place, 12.6pc

But do they get a pic for the top four? No


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.

Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.

Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.

Benpointer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Benpointer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Chris said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Gallowgate said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

What’s the significance?

YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

1) chance, in which case this is fine.
2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

Treat with caution.

Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.

half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.

Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.

Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.

Haha you sure you don't mean the Traitors, Remoaners or the 'die hard Remainers' as we're generally called?

Star Wars Remainers seem to be quite a Force.

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.

The mandate has been given by both the people and the Parliament.

The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.

Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.

Leavers blocked the deal. They can’t then insist on no deal. They have rejected what they had the mandate for.

Over 400 MPs blocked the deal, are you saying they were all leavers?

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Benpointer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

3rd place, 12.6pc

But do they get a pic for the top four? No


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.

Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.

How so?

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.

Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.

Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.

So if Boris Johnson jumped off a cliff would you follow?

Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?

JBriskinindyref2 said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

williamglenn said:

ReggieCide said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Then

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.

Then you are lacking in imagination

There was a vote to leave

It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”

Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?

Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.

That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.

That's tosh, utter tosh

No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

The UK is done.

Dream on

It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.

It's not done. But if South Sudan mk 2 does appear on England's doorstep I agree it will be wanky.

I'm not getting the South Sudan mk2 thingy.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Benpointer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

3rd place, 12.6pc

But do they get a pic for the top four? No


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.

Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.

How so?

Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave

Why when he came 10th?

Can you hear me Iowa?

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1161366775226720256

Go Pete!

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Benpointer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

3rd place, 12.6pc

But do they get a pic for the top four? No


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.

Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.

Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.

They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.

Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?

Celtic = LOL