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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov

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  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I hate to have to point it out to someone of your intellect, but the UK electoral system does not work on national percentages.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    That would not have mattered had the vast majority of non Tory MPs voted for it. Party lines are immaterial on this issue except for tribalists.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Anyone can be a Wikipedia editor
    So? If I change it so Farage's photo is up there it will just be changed back by the wiki elite.
    It will be changed back because what actually matters in our electoral system is seats, not votes. And on that basis UKIP were joint last of all parties that actually won any seats.
  • ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
  • Who says the Scots want to remain in Europe?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, that's a poor result for the Lib Dems, they want to be at least 6-8 points ahead in the marginals by now.

    And the Tories haven't done more than suggest a few morsals from their war chest spend yet.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    It's the default stupid.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060


    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?

    The trouble is if remainers had voted for the deal, leavers would have howled with rage that true Brexit had been thwarted and that it was BINO.

    The Brexit party would probably be polling 30+%

  • Celtic = LOL

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport

    Such a shame for an err, British team
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
    Yes - in second, where she came in terms of EC votes. Although I don't think she's fucking in the photo. In fact, I believe Bill takes his ahem, exercise elsewhere these days.

    Just as Farage would be there if they went down as far as joint last, but they don't.
  • ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
    Farage got only 1 seat in 2015, so not in the top 4.
  • Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave
    Nope. The Top 4 were as follows:

    Con 330 seats
    Lab 232 seats
    SNP 56 seats
    LDs 8 seats
    He came third in the popular vote - the mandate he got from that election changed British politics forever. He's due a photo.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Who says the Scots want to remain in Europe?

    At risk of sounding like HYUFD, they did actually, by 62 to 38.
  • Celtic = LOL

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport

    Such a shame for an err, British team
    The really funny thing is the Rangers fans laughing at this result not realising this result makes it harder for Rangers to qualify for Europe in the future as the Scottish co-efficient takes another pummelling.
  • ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
    Farage got only 1 seat in 2015, so not in the top 4.
    HE CAME THIRD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - It's not that complicated. You add up all the votes and he came third. He's at least due a photo on page 1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    That would not have mattered had the vast majority of non Tory MPs voted for it. Party lines are immaterial on this issue except for tribalists.
    May called the election saying that Labour were threatening to vote against the deal. Labour issued a manifesto opposed to May's approach to Brexit. They had a mandate to vote against the deal.
  • ydoethur said:

    Who says the Scots want to remain in Europe?

    At risk of sounding like HYUFD, they did actually, by 62 to 38.
    Celtic clearly didn't get that memo.
  • Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    We don't measure by popular vote in this country, we measure by seats. And by seats he came 10th.

    Hence why in 2015 Nicola's SNP (56 seats, 4.7%) is listed ahead of Clegg's LDs (8 seats, 7.9%): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Hence why in 2005 in England Blair's Labour (286 seats, 35.4%) is listed ahead of Howard's Tories (19 seats, 35.7%): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England
    Hency why in 1951 Churchill's Tories (321 seats, 48.0%) is listed ahead of Attlee's Labour (295 seats, 48.8%)

    Popular vote doesn't matter, we measure in seats and UKIP won 1 seat. If you wanted Farage's picture up there you'd have to have before him not just the 4 shown but he was also beaten by Peter Robinson's DUP (8 seats), Gerry Adams' Sinn Fein (4 seats), Leanne Wood's Plaid Cymru (3 seats), Alasdair McDonnell's SDLP (3 seats) and Mike Nesbitt's UUP (2 seats). Farage would then be 10th.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    That would not have mattered had the vast majority of non Tory MPs voted for it. Party lines are immaterial on this issue except for tribalists.
    Party lines are material because T May made them material - she shut the opposition parties out of the deliberations until she had sealed her deal with Brussels and then failed twice to get it through parliament.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    This is interesting. The Wild West image of a semi-lawless, small homestead town in the West with men wandering around with guns is a 20th c myth according to this video. Newly established towns in say Kansas had signs saying leave your guns at the office before entering...

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/s-e-cupp-quits-nra-gun-control_n_5d50c0dae4b0fd2733f23c00
  • Who says the Scots want to remain in Europe?

    Hopefully I'll get to play the secret song again on Thursday anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Who says the Scots want to remain in Europe?

    At risk of sounding like HYUFD, they did actually, by 62 to 38.
    Celtic clearly didn't get that memo.
    Ah.

    Having missed the point of the conversation completely and looked like a muppet in consequence, my HYUFD impersonation is perfected.
  • This really bugs me. He had nine points already, and was too stupid and arrogant to slow down. Then he bleats that his job will be in affected if he gets a longer ban. The judge is a wanker!

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/aug/13/alan-partridge-saves-steve-coogan-from-lengthy-driving-ban
  • ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
    Farage got only 1 seat in 2015, so not in the top 4.
    HE CAME THIRD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - It's not that complicated. You add up all the votes and he came third. He's at least due a photo on page 1
    He came 10th in seats. The photos are ranked by seats, not by popular vote. Always have been.
  • ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
    Farage got only 1 seat in 2015, so not in the top 4.
    HE CAME THIRD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - It's not that complicated. You add up all the votes and he came third. He's at least due a photo on page 1
    He came 10th in seats. The photos are ranked by seats, not by popular vote. Always have been.
    Fuck you all - I'm editing it right now
  • justin124 said:

    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

    Richmond Park 0.07%
    St Ives 0.61%
    Cheltenham 4.51%
    North Devon 7.78%
    Cheadle 8.26%
    Lewes 10.16%
    St Albans 10.72%
    Wells 12.46%
    Hazel Grove 12.49%
    North Cornwall 14.13%
    Winchester 17.49%
    Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
    Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
    Yeovil 24.78%
    Taunton Deane 25.20%
    Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
    Eastleigh 24.75%
    Montgomeryshire 26.61%
    Torbay 27.91%
    Chippenham 29.10%

    Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

    Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
    Labour would mount a serious campaign in St Albans given that it held the seat 1997 - 2005.
    2005 is a lifetime ago in political terms. Corbyn isn't Blair in terms of who he's appealing to, and St Albans was massively Remain. Labour will be sub 15%.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.
  • justin124 said:

    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

    Richmond Park 0.07%
    St Ives 0.61%
    Cheltenham 4.51%
    North Devon 7.78%
    Cheadle 8.26%
    Lewes 10.16%
    St Albans 10.72%
    Wells 12.46%
    Hazel Grove 12.49%
    North Cornwall 14.13%
    Winchester 17.49%
    Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
    Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
    Yeovil 24.78%
    Taunton Deane 25.20%
    Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
    Eastleigh 24.75%
    Montgomeryshire 26.61%
    Torbay 27.91%
    Chippenham 29.10%

    Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

    Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
    Labour would mount a serious campaign in St Albans given that it held the seat 1997 - 2005.
    In 1997 and 2001 St Albans voted for Tony Blair. In 2019 I doubt these same voters will be as willing to vote for Jezbollah
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    CatMan said:


    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?

    The trouble is if remainers had voted for the deal, leavers would have howled with rage that true Brexit had been thwarted and that it was BINO.

    The Brexit party would probably be polling 30+%

    We would have left with a deal though. The Brexit party would be emasculated. I don't see very many on here cheering on the Brexit party. It's only purpose is to try to make sure Brexit gets done, in its terms, properly.
  • ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
    Farage got only 1 seat in 2015, so not in the top 4.
    HE CAME THIRD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - It's not that complicated. You add up all the votes and he came third. He's at least due a photo on page 1
    He came 10th in seats. The photos are ranked by seats, not by popular vote. Always have been.
    Fuck you all - I'm editing it right now
    It'll be edited back. Policy is they get ranked by seats not by popular vote and by seats they came 10th. What are you not understanding?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060

    This really bugs me. He had nine points already, and was too stupid and arrogant to slow down. Then he bleats that his job will be in affected if he gets a longer ban. The judge is a wanker!

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/aug/13/alan-partridge-saves-steve-coogan-from-lengthy-driving-ban

    To be fair it wasn't just his job that would have been affected.

    Anyway, doesn't this sort of thing go on all the time (people on 12 or more points getting an exemption because of their job)?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Go Bercow. The ages will remember.

    Take back control kids.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal.

    So they have no mandate from voters.

    Glad we got that cleared up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    The judge is a wanker!

    I believe it was actually a JP. But I'm intrigued. The basic tenor of that comment implies you have met a judge who is NOT a wanker. Who was it and when?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    justin124 said:

    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

    Richmond Park 0.07%
    St Ives 0.61%
    Cheltenham 4.51%
    North Devon 7.78%
    Cheadle 8.26%
    Lewes 10.16%
    St Albans 10.72%
    Wells 12.46%
    Hazel Grove 12.49%
    North Cornwall 14.13%
    Winchester 17.49%
    Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
    Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
    Yeovil 24.78%
    Taunton Deane 25.20%
    Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
    Eastleigh 24.75%
    Montgomeryshire 26.61%
    Torbay 27.91%
    Chippenham 29.10%

    Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

    Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
    Labour would mount a serious campaign in St Albans given that it held the seat 1997 - 2005.
    What would Labour campaign on ? 2nd referendum, if there is a Tory deal or No deal. But Brexit if a Labour deal.
    But Labour members and supporters [ 80% of them ] do not want a fucking deal. WE want to REMAIN.
  • Scott_P said:
    The Speaker of the House of Commons wants to keep the sovereign parliament of the United Kingdom sitting and passing laws.

    Was a disgusting affront to our parliamentary sovereignty. I blame Europe
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Dadge said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    That would not have mattered had the vast majority of non Tory MPs voted for it. Party lines are immaterial on this issue except for tribalists.
    Party lines are material because T May made them material - she shut the opposition parties out of the deliberations until she had sealed her deal with Brussels and then failed twice to get it through parliament.
    She shut her own party out of the deliberations too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    In order to TAKE BACK CONTROL and ensure that Parliament is once again sovereign, it has become clear that we need to, errr, shut down Parliament for a few weeks.


    Catch 22 is not a comedy.





  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited August 2019

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:



    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.
    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
  • CatMan said:


    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?

    The trouble is if remainers had voted for the deal, leavers would have howled with rage that true Brexit had been thwarted and that it was BINO.

    The Brexit party would probably be polling 30+%

    Since when did remainers care about leavers howling?

    Yes if remainers had voted for the deal, true Brexit would have been thwarted. We would have had Remainer May's remainy deal thrust upon us by a Remainer Parliament.

    But the Remainers did the Leavers dirty work and killed the deal, now we get a clean exit. Thanks guys!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Scott_P said:
    The Speaker of the House of Commons wants to keep the sovereign parliament of the United Kingdom sitting and passing laws.

    Was a disgusting affront to our parliamentary sovereignty. I blame Europe
    I think Eton has more blame on its hands than any other institution.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.
    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    That would not have mattered had the vast majority of non Tory MPs voted for it. Party lines are immaterial on this issue except for tribalists.
    May called the election saying that Labour were threatening to vote against the deal. Labour issued a manifesto opposed to May's approach to Brexit. They had a mandate to vote against the deal.
    Any deal? So, now the default is in play.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019

    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.

    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    We have a mandate to leave.

    No deal is not a thing. It is just an absence of a deal, since you guys rejected the deal we have no choice, the only way to leave left open to us now is without a deal.
  • ydoethur said:

    The judge is a wanker!

    I believe it was actually a JP. But I'm intrigued. The basic tenor of that comment implies you have met a judge who is NOT a wanker. Who was it and when?
    I'm happy to say I have never met an actual Judge, unless you count the Loughborough Monitor annual christmas colouring competition from 48 years ago. I'm told the Judge was some Coronation Street star.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.

    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    We have a mandate to leave.

    No deal is not a thing. It is just an absence of a deal, since you guys rejected the deal we have no choice, the only way to leave left open to us now is without a deal.
    The deal is still there. It has been abandoned - without mandate - by the death cult.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The squeezed Labour vote may well be already in the figures with the residual vote being ultra loyalist and much less amenable to tactical voting for a Tory Little Helper.Several of the seats - in addition to St Albans - have seen substantial Labour votes in the past - indeed Labour was in contention in Cheltenham, Taunton and Yeovil in 1966.Any tactical shift has probably already occurred - as has happened in Brecon & Radnor.
  • Gabs2 said:

    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.

    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
    Yes it does.

    They have a mandate for Brexit. No deal Brexit is simply what happens if Brexit occurs without a deal, which Parliament blocked. What did you think was going to happen when Parliament blocked the deal, what mythical unicorn did you expect to avoid a no deal Brexit given Brexit was still continuing just now without a deal?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    nt.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.
    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
    No, but Brexit itself has a very clear mandate. I wish Remain won the referendum, but we didn't. So the mandate is to leave. Those overriding a mandate were all those MPs who voted against the deal. They were craven fools. Their best chance now is to pass the deal and make Boris be the one who is breaking a mandate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    justin124 said:

    The squeezed Labour vote may well be already in the figures with the residual vote being ultra loyalist and much less amenable to tactical voting for a Tory Little Helper.Several of the seats - in addition to St Albans - have seen substantial Labour votes in the past - indeed Labour was in contention in Cheltenham, Taunton and Yeovil in 1966.Any tactical shift has probably already occurred - as has happened in Brecon & Radnor.

    I really do need to finish that thread header on Brecon and Radnor.
  • Not sure how to do photos - but I've made a start-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.

    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    We have a mandate to leave.

    No deal is not a thing. It is just an absence of a deal, since you guys rejected the deal we have no choice, the only way to leave left open to us now is without a deal.
    The deal is still there. It has been abandoned - without mandate - by the death cult.
    No, it was abandoned by Parliament. Over 400 MPs rejected it originally, but even later a majority blocked it all 3 times.

    What unicorn did you expect to happen next when the deal was blocked? If we leave, but can get through a deal, then that would be called . . . ???
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.

    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    We have a mandate to leave.

    No deal is not a thing. It is just an absence of a deal, since you guys rejected the deal we have no choice, the only way to leave left open to us now is without a deal.
    The deal is still there. It has been abandoned - without mandate - by the death cult.
    It wasn't abandoned by the ERG. It was voted down by parliament. Three times.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.

    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    We have a mandate to leave.

    No deal is not a thing. It is just an absence of a deal, since you guys rejected the deal we have no choice, the only way to leave left open to us now is without a deal.
    The deal is still there. It has been abandoned - without mandate - by the death cult.
    The Deal has been abandoned by Parliament. How many more time should they trounce it before you accept it's dead?
  • Not sure how to do photos - but I've made a start-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Where's the 5 parties that got more than 1 MP?

    Why are you only adding the party that came 10th?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    nt.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.
    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
    No
    The rest is superfluous.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    edited August 2019
    justin124 said:

    The squeezed Labour vote may well be already in the figures with the residual vote being ultra loyalist and much less amenable to tactical voting for a Tory Little Helper.Several of the seats - in addition to St Albans - have seen substantial Labour votes in the past - indeed Labour was in contention in Cheltenham, Taunton and Yeovil in 1966.Any tactical shift has probably already occurred - as has happened in Brecon & Radnor.

    And how many 1966 voters are still alive and living in the same area? Note that the youngest possible voter in 1966 would be 74 now.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:



    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.
    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    IT'S THE DEFAULT, STUPID!
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    justin124 said:

    The squeezed Labour vote may well be already in the figures with the residual vote being ultra loyalist and much less amenable to tactical voting for a Tory Little Helper.Several of the seats - in addition to St Albans - have seen substantial Labour votes in the past - indeed Labour was in contention in Cheltenham, Taunton and Yeovil in 1966.Any tactical shift has probably already occurred - as has happened in Brecon & Radnor.

    I know you are a Labour supporter. Would you get some satisfaction if the Tories little helpers did not win and the Tories won instead ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

    You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
    Remainer MPs rejected an orderly exit deal 3 times. ERG was irrelevant as were the other Tory rebels.
    May's deal was a pretty hard version of Brexit. You can hardly blame Labour MPs for not supporting it. The situation we are in is pretty much down to the Tories.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Gabs2 said:

    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.

    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
    Yes it does.

    They have a mandate for Brexit. No deal Brexit is simply what happens if Brexit occurs without a deal, which Parliament blocked. What did you think was going to happen when Parliament blocked the deal, what mythical unicorn did you expect to avoid a no deal Brexit given Brexit was still continuing just now without a deal?

    They have a mandate for the Brexit they campaigned for. That was Brexit with a deal.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit and no mandate for Brexit on 31 October. That’s strictly death cult material.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

    ‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

    He's broadly correct.

    The issues will be with British (and EU) firms who have never exported beyond the bloc before, and who are unaware how the forms work. This will be especially acute in agriculture.

    There will also be issues for sectors with tight supply chain timings, and also for people who export to places outside the EU, who will need documentation around Rules of Origin.

    Basically, there will be problems, especially in the first few weeks. But it will not be the end of the world.

    The real question is not about whether there is some initial disruption (there will but it will be annoying rather than terminal), it's about whether certain businesses with cross border supply chains deal well with things crossing the border multiple times, accumulating tariffs every time. My guess is that UK auto suppliers will struggle, and if they do, it may cast into doubt the long term future of car making in the UK.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    ydoethur said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
    No - I'm saying I bet there's a fucking photo of her on US Election 2016
    Farage got only 1 seat in 2015, so not in the top 4.
    HE CAME THIRD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - It's not that complicated. You add up all the votes and he came third. He's at least due a photo on page 1
    He came 10th in seats. The photos are ranked by seats, not by popular vote. Always have been.
    Fuck you all - I'm editing it right now
    Stupid, and drunk. Typical TalkTalk user ;-)

  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    nt.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.
    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
    No
    The rest is superfluous.
    Nonsense. The lacking mandate bit is the deal being voted down. Not the exiting of the EU. That is on the people who voted down the deal. Not the people exiting the EU.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    CatMan said:


    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?

    The trouble is if remainers had voted for the deal, leavers would have howled with rage that true Brexit had been thwarted and that it was BINO.

    The Brexit party would probably be polling 30+%

    Since when did remainers care about leavers howling?

    Yes if remainers had voted for the deal, true Brexit would have been thwarted. We would have had Remainer May's remainy deal thrust upon us by a Remainer Parliament.

    But the Remainers did the Leavers dirty work and killed the deal, now we get a clean exit. Thanks guys!
    This is what makes Remainers so cross now, the realisation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:



    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    There's no mandate beyond leaving the EU. So we must leave the EU. Then we can get back to normal.

    I think that the pro-EU camp (although i equivocated in the referendum I am somewhat more anti-EU) may well be better fighting for future closer ties than trying to hang on to what we have. (I actually think that's better for the EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.
    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    IT'S THE DEFAULT, STUPID!
    Block capitals do not make something true. On 23 June 2016 this was not true.
  • Not sure how to do photos - but I've made a start-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Where's the 5 parties that got more than 1 MP?

    Why are you only adding the party that came 10th?
    BECAUSE THEY CAME 3RD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - THUS CHANGING BRITISH POLITICS FOREVER.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Gabs2 said:



    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.

    As a maths major I'm a big fan of answering the question on the paper. It was indeed to leave the EU, various soft forms including the deal and CM+ were set out which would have satisfied the referendum but our wonders of MPs couldn't agree a single form between them.

    Both "No deal" and CM+ satisfy the question, personally I couldn't see the benefits outweighing the costs if we left without a deal which I always held as a possibility hence my vote to remain but 17.6 million seemed willing to risk it.
    I never took the campaign to be particularly prescient about what would happen after, it was an obvious appeal to the heartstrings with a vaguely jingoistic NHS message.
  • Not sure how to do photos - but I've made a start-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Where's the 5 parties that got more than 1 MP?

    Why are you only adding the party that came 10th?
    It's already been reverted by Bondegezou :lol:
  • Not sure how to do photos - but I've made a start-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Where's the 5 parties that got more than 1 MP?

    Why are you only adding the party that came 10th?
    BECAUSE THEY CAME 3RD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - THUS CHANGING BRITISH POLITICS FOREVER.
    We measure parties in SEATS not popular vote. They came 10th in seats.

    Losers.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Remainers gave them the mandate by rejecting the deal. They could have permanently taken no deal off the table, but they got greedy and its backfired.

    You don’t get to claim a mandate for something that you actively disavowed. Black is not white. You want no deal Brexit, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got one.

    This is not difficult stuff but Leavers are determined to undermine Britain’s democracy because they hate the EU so much.
    We have a mandate to leave.

    No deal is not a thing. It is just an absence of a deal, since you guys rejected the deal we have no choice, the only way to leave left open to us now is without a deal.
    The deal is still there. It has been abandoned - without mandate - by the death cult.
    Death cult = Bercow then?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, that's a poor result for the Lib Dems, they want to be at least 6-8 points ahead in the marginals by now.

    And the Tories haven't done more than suggest a few morsals from their war chest spend yet.
    While the Conservative activists huff and puff this poll shows the LDs getting results on the ground.

    It's well known once the GE campaign starts the LD effort in the marginals will increase exponentially so to be on terms at this time (which will mean well ahead in a few, well behind in a few and close in the others) is very good.

    We obviously need to see polls from BOTH Con-Lab and Lab-Con marginals to get a much better idea of what is happening over and above the national polls which are effectively propaganda weapons these days and of no real value.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    CatMan said:


    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?

    The trouble is if remainers had voted for the deal, leavers would have howled with rage that true Brexit had been thwarted and that it was BINO.

    The Brexit party would probably be polling 30+%

    Since when did remainers care about leavers howling?

    Yes if remainers had voted for the deal, true Brexit would have been thwarted. We would have had Remainer May's remainy deal thrust upon us by a Remainer Parliament.

    But the Remainers did the Leavers dirty work and killed the deal, now we get a clean exit. Thanks guys!
    And how do you think that 'clean exit' is going to pan out?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Throughout the history of Wikipedia - irrespective of the country - it's always done on seats won, not on vote share.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    nt.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.
    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
    No
    The rest is superfluous.
    Nonsense. The lacking mandate bit is the deal being voted down. Not the exiting of the EU. That is on the people who voted down the deal. Not the people exiting the EU.
    The mandate campaigned for was for Brexit with a deal where “we held all the cards”. The idea this was untrue was expressly, repeatedly and angrily disavowed.

    If events have not transpired as Leavers deludedly imagines, this does not turn a pumpkin into a golden coach. It just means that there is no mandate for what Leavers want to do. They now need one.
  • Block capitals do not make something true. On 23 June 2016 this was not true.

    Its the EU's own constitution, adopted by the Treaty of Lisbon, as you supported getting ratified that makes it true. Its the EU's own insistence we must leave via Article 50 that makes it true.

    Article 50 means we leave automatically without a deal, unless a deal is agreed. A deal - the only deal the EU says is available - was agreed and rejected, that leaves just no deal remaining. Parliament's choice.

    Unless the EU was lying and there's another deal available.
  • CatMan said:


    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?

    The trouble is if remainers had voted for the deal, leavers would have howled with rage that true Brexit had been thwarted and that it was BINO.

    The Brexit party would probably be polling 30+%

    Since when did remainers care about leavers howling?

    Yes if remainers had voted for the deal, true Brexit would have been thwarted. We would have had Remainer May's remainy deal thrust upon us by a Remainer Parliament.

    But the Remainers did the Leavers dirty work and killed the deal, now we get a clean exit. Thanks guys!
    And how do you think that 'clean exit' is going to pan out?
    Fine.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Throughout the history of Wikipedia - irrespective of the country - it's always done on seats won, not on vote share.

    Well it's been reverted and all I've done is show of my IP.

    At least I was trying to take a stand for democracy.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Throughout the history of Wikipedia - irrespective of the country - it's always done on seats won, not on vote share.

    Well it's been reverted and all I've done is show of my IP.

    At least I was trying to take a stand for democracy.
    Democracy is seats won.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    The squeezed Labour vote may well be already in the figures with the residual vote being ultra loyalist and much less amenable to tactical voting for a Tory Little Helper.Several of the seats - in addition to St Albans - have seen substantial Labour votes in the past - indeed Labour was in contention in Cheltenham, Taunton and Yeovil in 1966.Any tactical shift has probably already occurred - as has happened in Brecon & Radnor.

    And how many 1966 voters are still alive and living in the same area?
    Very few - but that was not my point! The electoral dynamics of those seats have changed - particularly since they elected LIbDem MPs -with non - Tories now accustomed to the idea that to defeat the Tory they need to vote LibDem . That ,of course, assumes that such voters see a significant difference between the two.Having said that , in some seats. the process went into reverse in 2015 and 2017 - to such an extent that Yeovil, Taunton and Torbay now look pretty safe in Tory hands.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

    You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
    Remainer MPs rejected an orderly exit deal 3 times. ERG was irrelevant as were the other Tory rebels.
    So get a mandate for No Deal or for a different deal. But don’t go round claiming a mandate you don’t have or lying, as Raab has, about what was said during the referendum campaign.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Not sure how to do photos - but I've made a start-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Where's the 5 parties that got more than 1 MP?

    Why are you only adding the party that came 10th?
    BECAUSE THEY CAME 3RD IN THE POPULAR VOTE - THUS CHANGING BRITISH POLITICS FOREVER.
    We measure parties in SEATS not popular vote. They came 10th in seats.

    Losers.
    If Wikipedia did (say) other countries parliamentary elections by votes, not seats, then @JBriskinindyref2 might have a point.

    But, in fact, Wikipedia *always* does it by seats in parliamentary elections.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

    You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
    Remainer MPs rejected an orderly exit deal 3 times. ERG was irrelevant as were the other Tory rebels.
    May's deal was a pretty hard version of Brexit. You can hardly blame Labour MPs for not supporting it. The situation we are in is pretty much down to the Tories.
    Can you count?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Throughout the history of Wikipedia - irrespective of the country - it's always done on seats won, not on vote share.

    Well it's been reverted and all I've done is show of my IP.

    At least I was trying to take a stand for democracy.
    Democracy is seats won.
    Oh do shut up. I was only trying to make wiki less biased.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    nt.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
    EU too)
    Once again, you’re claiming a mandate for something that during the referendum campaign Leavers not only did not campaign for but disavowed.

    The deal on the table has been sabotaged and now abandoned by Leavers. They have no mandate for their actions now.
    The deal on the table was sabotaged by both sides by childish MPs. Parliament voted to invoke Article 50 and leave the EU. Then they voted to not take the managed transition. Three times. Every vote against that deal, when we were already leaving in law, is responsible for No Deal.
    That still does not give the death cult a mandate for no deal Brexit.
    No
    The rest is superfluous.
    Nonsense. The lacking mandate bit is the deal being voted down. Not the exiting of the EU. That is on the people who voted down the deal. Not the people exiting the EU.
    The mandate campaigned for was for Brexit with a deal where “we held all the cards”. The idea this was untrue was expressly, repeatedly and angrily disavowed.

    If events have not transpired as Leavers deludedly imagines, this does not turn a pumpkin into a golden coach. It just means that there is no mandate for what Leavers want to do. They now need one.
    The mandate was to Leave the EU. There was no wording about how that was to be done in the referendum question. Any type of Leave qualifies as fulfilling the mandate and any type of Remain fails it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Not sure how to do photos - but I've made a start-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Where's the 5 parties that got more than 1 MP?

    Why are you only adding the party that came 10th?
    It's already been reverted by Bondegezou :lol:
    There's that terrible liberal Wikipedia bias in favour of accuracy playing out again!

    :smile:
This discussion has been closed.