Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov

Just released on the YouGov website today is the above poll commissioned by the People’s Vote in the 20 most marginal Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the main challenger.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll
Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.
And for all we know it could be a 10% lead in one marginal with a half a percent deficit in 19 others.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1161356747535261699
Hard to know why, but there's potential for the polls to be very wrong as a result.
1) chance, in which case this is fine.
2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.
Treat with caution.
Add in Tory losses to the SNP and they'll need at least 20 gains from Labour just to stand still.
The US BLS releases data on Job Openings in its JOLTS survey. Alongside PMIs and the yield curve, this has been an excellent early warning recession sign.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm
Private sector job openings are now falling, and are now down year-over-year.
Now, the JOLTS survey is imperfect. It can show volatility. Nevertheless, it is yet another piece in the puzzle suggesting that the world economy is slowing markedly.
Coalitionistas FTW
Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.
1. SNP maj 4000
2. Lab - willing to collaborate with SNP
3. Tory - unionist
x.(lets's see how they poll) Brexit - unionist
Could be my first ever Tory vote. It's Ms Brisk who is nearing the official age of voting tory - not me.
Michael Gove thought Mrs May's deal honoured the referendum result, Boris Johnson said it didn't.
St Ives 0.61%
Cheltenham 4.51%
North Devon 7.78%
Cheadle 8.26%
Lewes 10.16%
St Albans 10.72%
Wells 12.46%
Hazel Grove 12.49%
North Cornwall 14.13%
Winchester 17.49%
Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
Yeovil 24.78%
Taunton Deane 25.20%
Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
Eastleigh 24.75%
Montgomeryshire 26.61%
Torbay 27.91%
Chippenham 29.10%
Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.
Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
There was a vote to leave
It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.
But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
GE2015
Con 36.8
+
UKIP 12.6
=49.4pc
You can't transfer votes from our current system to votes under the awful PR system because they're different but its worth noting that in 2015 a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.
Plus in 2014 EU elections under PR a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.
All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.
3rd place, 12.6pc
But do they get a pic for the top four? No
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
So, on balance, it could be all fine and dandy, or...
Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK
The UK is done.
I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.
If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.
The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.
Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.
You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
It's you that's on the bullying side I'm afraid.
I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.
You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?
Maybe he wants one of your famous bar charts to suggest that 10th is actually top 4.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1161366775226720256
Go Pete!
(I agree entirely with your second point. Anyone who voted against May's deal is definitely deserving of ordure should we end up leaving without one.)
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1161376499821420550
Con 330 seats
Lab 232 seats
SNP 56 seats
LDs 8 seats