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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson appears to be doing what Gordon Brown did in the summer of 2017 giving you all the signs of going for an early election
On Betfair it’s now a 72% chance that there will be a general election this year. pic.twitter.com/kJPhshLAzu
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Gordon Brown did not hold a 2017 election, or even talk about it0
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2007 perhaps?0
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Even Mr Sweaty was gone by 2017....0
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Thread hog.Beibheirli_C said:Even Mr Sweaty was gone by 2017....
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Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.2
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I have to get my entertainment somehow....Nigelb said:0 -
The airbrushing of history is good, but you missed one...
"This period reminds me very much of summer 2017 when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair in the June of that year"0 -
I’m also laying a 2019 election.
I consider it very possible, but not heavily odds on.0 -
Off-topic:
In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.
Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.
(There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)0 -
Yes, I agree with that. I'd also add that Mike could have drawn the exact opposite conclusion from the similarities with Brown's first few weeks as PM: after all, we know that he was planning an election, so you could conclude that the current high level of largely meaningless activity suggests Boris is too.Tissue_Price said:Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
And of course there is the not inconsiderable chance that matters might be taken out of Boris' hands.
The current odds look about right to me.0 -
I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.2 -
Interesting comparison but the difference is the Brown could just carry on, whereas Boris is faced with two doors, one reading "Lose half your voters" and the other one reading "Destroy your economy, lose large parts of your country, and lose some unknown proportion of your voters".0
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That's not a chance, that's the plan...Richard_Nabavi said:And of course there is the not inconsiderable chance that matters might be taken out of Boris' hands.
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Those have not been concerns for successive Russian governments, though.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.
Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.
(There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)0 -
Or we could be swapping one flavour of manure for another.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.0 -
Yes, very probably. But even if it wasn't, it could well still happen.Tissue_Price said:
That's not a chance, that's the plan...Richard_Nabavi said:And of course there is the not inconsiderable chance that matters might be taken out of Boris' hands.
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Indeed. It should perhaps be internationally, though.Nigelb said:
Those have not been concerns for successive Russian governments, though.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.
Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.
(There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)0 -
I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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Agree with Mike. I am betting on 2019 passing with neither Brexit nor a GE happening.
2020 OTOH ... oh my word.0 -
To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.Tissue_Price said:Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.0 -
Can’t wait for @HYUFD to come along and tell you you’re wrong.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.0 -
We know Trump doesn’t give a ... goddam.JosiasJessop said:
Indeed. It should perhaps be internationally, though.Nigelb said:
Those have not been concerns for successive Russian governments, though.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.
Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.
(There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)0 -
Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentiallyCyclefree said:
I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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I’ve been a layer of 2019 (and specifically October 2019) for a while, hedged by also laying 2022. Indeed I’d have been better waiting for the odds of 2019 to come in.
My reading of Bozo - having seen how cowardly he was during the leadership contest - is that he won’t risk throwing away the job unless he absolutely has to. The betting issue is that he may absolutely have to.0 -
I'm laying Oct 19 - that's enough for me given my bankroll.0
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Though you have to balance his cowardly streak with his reckless streak.IanB2 said:I’ve been a layer of 2019 (and specifically October 2019) for a while, hedged by also laying 2022. Indeed I’d have been better waiting for the odds of 2019 to come in.
My reading of Bozo - having seen how cowardly he was during the leadership contest - is that he won’t risk throwing away the job unless he absolutely has to. The betting issue is that he may absolutely have to.
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I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.1 -
What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?Yorkcity said:
I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.
I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.0 -
A shame that there isn’t the equivalent of a politics BOGOF. Though I suppose it should be SOSAOF (Sack One, Sack Another One for Free).Beibheirli_C said:
Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentiallyCyclefree said:
I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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And that even if he does not want to his recklessness means it has been set in motion.IanB2 said:I’ve been a layer of 2019 (and specifically October 2019) for a while, hedged by also laying 2022. Indeed I’d have been better waiting for the odds of 2019 to come in.
My reading of Bozo - having seen how cowardly he was during the leadership contest - is that he won’t risk throwing away the job unless he absolutely has to. The betting issue is that he may absolutely have to.0 -
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.0 -
To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).Nigelb said:
To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.Tissue_Price said:Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.0 -
How does BoJo avoid a split in his own vote if he cannot get Brexit through? A plea to Farage that it would be counter productive wont help, as Johnson has encouraged a self defeating plans all along himself and knows Farage will not play ball.Yorkcity said:
I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.0 -
"Johnson needs to be convinced that he can more than offset potential losses with gains from LAB and that looks challenging"
No, I think Johnson merely needs to ensure that he does not lose too badly & no-one else wins. Suppose Boris suffers a net loss of 20 seats. That is not good, but it is eminently recoverable.
It would see a Lab + Lib + SNP government (presumably) trying to deal with the complexities of Brexit.
There is no majority for any (positive) Brexit decision. There is only bitching about what people don't want.
So a Lab + Lib + SNP Government (assuming it could even be got off the ground and set flying) would not last long. Boris could come straight back in another election.
It goes back to David Herdon's astute observation after the 2017 election -- let Corbyn try.
It is no disaster for Johnson to lose modestly, and let Corbyn or Swinson try and let them suffer the unpopularity that will come with any active decision.
This is especially the case if Boris is forced into an election, rather than actively choses one.0 -
If an election is called, the Tories most seats, Corbyn PM betting middle is one to look out for.Tissue_Price said:
To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).Nigelb said:
To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.Tissue_Price said:Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.0 -
I like optimisim. It is so much better than the alternative.kle4 said:
I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.
Which is why I hate Brexit - it has no redeeming factors at all.1 -
Cyclefree said:
A shame that there isn’t the equivalent of a politics BOGOF. Though I suppose it should be SOSAOF (Sack One, Sack Another One for Free).Beibheirli_C said:
Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentiallyCyclefree said:
I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
Maybe we can line them up against the wall when the revolution comes0 -
Unfortunately that would mean Swinson so even worse, there are no good outcomes.Cyclefree said:
I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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I think anybody who puts too much faith in opinion polls at the moment is risking getting their fingers burnt. I believe that a lot of the people answering yes to no deal are actually saying yes to anything that they ‘think’ we get it over and done with. During a pre no deal election not only will there be more clarity on no deal and the myth of Johnson being a great communicator will be debunked. His leadership campaign showed he was barely better than May.Gallowgate said:
Can’t wait for @HYUFD to come along and tell you you’re wrong.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.0 -
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.0 -
Probably.Tissue_Price said:
To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).Nigelb said:
To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.Tissue_Price said:Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.0 -
Except that is a blinkered view since part of the complaint against no deal brexiteers is they are wildly too optimistic about its impact and how we could take advantage of the situation.Beibheirli_C said:
I like optimisim. It is so much better than the alternative.kle4 said:
I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.
Which is why I hate Brexit - it has no redeeming factors at all.
So you dont like their optimism. Which I would agree with you on, and you may say fundamentally Brexit is more negatively focused, but I think framing it in moral terms as optimists back x is an open goal for no dealers .0 -
Will one of Boris Johnson's ministers write
‘Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase its majority’
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
How? Labour might want Brexit, but the Libs and SNP do not.YBarddCwsc said:It would see a Lab + Lib + SNP government (presumably) trying to deal with the complexities of Brexit.
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Me too, but I'd back him to win right now. Indeed, that reminds me I will do so now.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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Dunno about backchannels, Trump likes to use Twitter.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.0 -
Whatever decision you take on Brexit will lose you votes.Beibheirli_C said:
How? Labour might want Brexit, but the Libs and SNP do not.YBarddCwsc said:It would see a Lab + Lib + SNP government (presumably) trying to deal with the complexities of Brexit.
If you decide to revoke, it will lose you votes.
That is why the LibDem candidate in Brecon & Radnorshire did not campaign for anything (like for revoking).
She campaigned against something (a Hard Brexit).0 -
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this0 -
Ken Clarke, your time is now......malcolmg said:
Unfortunately that would mean Swinson so even worse, there are no good outcomes.Cyclefree said:
I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
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Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Borisian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Raabs, the Patels or the Javids who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.TheScreamingEagles said:Will one of Boris Johnson's ministers write
‘Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase its majority’
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
It’s a lot less attractive now than when I first recommended it. Friday 25th is still theoretically possible and Thursday 31st the only remaining credible date. But with the talk of Bozo wanting to push things into November, my lay October tip looks sound and I am now significantly green on everything other than Oct 2019 and 2022.JBriskinindyref2 said:I'm laying Oct 19 - that's enough for me given my bankroll.
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Yes, that is my reading. Boris just needs to make sure he doesn't lose too badly.Tissue_Price said:
To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).Nigelb said:
To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.Tissue_Price said:Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.
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That’s priced in.Pulpstar said:
Dunno about backchannels, Trump likes to use Twitter.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.0 -
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
Why? When he was a child he just wanted to be world king; I don’t remember any ambition to make the world a better place. In his first job as a journalist he confessed to having no political principles or ideals whatsoever. He is likely the same as Gordon Brown, just wanting the job and its trappings, but not wanting the work (which even Gordon was up for), accountability or ability to improve things.0 -
And his record of lying and cheating in both his public and private lives would be put under the microscope. It would not be pretty.nichomar said:
I think anybody who puts too much faith in opinion polls at the moment is risking getting their fingers burnt. I believe that a lot of the people answering yes to no deal are actually saying yes to anything that they ‘think’ we get it over and done with. During a pre no deal election not only will there be more clarity on no deal and the myth of Johnson being a great communicator will be debunked. His leadership campaign showed he was barely better than May.Gallowgate said:
Can’t wait for @HYUFD to come along and tell you you’re wrong.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.0 -
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.0 -
Yes we and others need to grow some balls. But as you accurately note we wont and everyone knows we wont.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.0 -
I’m not sure that’s true. It’s about leadership.kle4 said:
Yes we and others need to grow some balls. But as you accurately note we wont and everyone knows we wont.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.0 -
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ). 0 -
PT -Pulpstar said:If an election is called, the Tories most seats, Corbyn PM betting middle is one to look out for.
I'm backing Harris and Warren for POTUS (long at weighted average about 4) and Biden for the nom as hedge to win an amount to cover my exposure on POTUS.
So, best outcome for me is Harris or Warren get the nom and go on to beat Trump. Worst outcome is one of the women get the nom and lose to Trump. I lose lose if that happens. So does the world.
If Biden gets the nom I will be net flat and will then (probably) back him to beat Trump.
That's my MO on this one. You didn't ask, but I'm telling you anyway.0 -
Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?Streeter said:
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
Or do they just do it at a price we like?0 -
Equally off topic but related, I notice there is a lot of naval activity in the Channel this morning. A navy contact tells me that at least two Russian mini submarines hanging around the sub-channel cables have been detected and seen off in the last few weeks. As well as tapping communications it isn’t impossible that their activity had something to do with the recent power outages.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.
Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.
(There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)0 -
Trust me - I am past caring. I will taunt the Brixteers unmercifully if Brexit turns to sh*t and cook a large humble pie if it is a roaring success and the Commonwealth begs us to lead the world. I want at least sunnily lit uplands from 1957 Mk2..kle4 said:
Except that is a blinkered view since part of the complaint against no deal brexiteers is they are wildly too optimistic about its impact and how we could take advantage of the situation.Beibheirli_C said:
I like optimisim. It is so much better than the alternative.kle4 said:
I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.
Which is why I hate Brexit - it has no redeeming factors at all.
So you dont like their optimism. Which I would agree with you on, and you may say fundamentally Brexit is more negatively focused, but I think framing it in moral terms as optimists back x is an open goal for no dealers .
0 -
Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.Casino_Royale said:
Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?Streeter said:
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
Or do they just do it at a price we like?0 -
You still there Morris Dancer, here’s your answer from last thread.
“Mr. Zephyr, how do you think we will end up remaining? What political steps do you think will be, or could be, taken?”
Experiments were carried out on monkeys, placing mother and baby in a cage on a hot plate and heating the plate. Ultimately the mum monkey stood on the baby to survive.
What I am about to describe is not this government blinking or getting cold feet. It’s a logical and reasoned political argument, about doing what you need to obtain political power and keep it. Like standing naked in front the mirror and asking: is it better to be feared or loved?
Imagine this government negotiating our brexit departure, As a team Cummings and all, as a cabinet, (and unlike how May tried to secretly fiddle and bounce it) to get what they really want, what they know is not just the best exit for Britain but for their own politics in medium and long term. It’s presented as being Mays deal dead, full steam ahead, but is this really this governments best option for their medium term survival? They could hit a pause button to negotiate it their way, their deal better than a no deal, particularly to their electoral prospects (what happens to inflation once we no deal out). And once we delay again, winds of political change, second ref, brexit death.
if they cared about brexit, delay is a risk to it. But The people in the top jobs in government today, controlling the country’s policy agenda, do they care more about being in those jobs than brexit, out of those two options which one will they throw the dice on and risk?
Politics ultimately doesn’t work to a master plan, it’s just a series of best managing the situations and crisis thrown at you.
Betting on no brexit is a value bet.0 -
I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .Casino_Royale said:
What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?Yorkcity said:
I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.
I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.
Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.
0 -
If only we were part of a large trading bloc with global influence..... *sigh!*Casino_Royale said:Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.0 -
We regulate products, goods, standards and for ethics all the time. And factories and supply chains modify and adjust every few years.kle4 said:
Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.Casino_Royale said:
Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?Streeter said:
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
Or do they just do it at a price we like?
This is no different.0 -
UK could do nothing in any event , China would swat them in any agenda , be it financial , goods , military. Best to shut yup and keep their heads down rather than be shown to really be impotent fools.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).0 -
kinabalu said:
PT -Pulpstar said:If an election is called, the Tories most seats, Corbyn PM betting middle is one to look out for.
I'm backing Harris and Warren for POTUS (long at weighted average about 4) and Biden for the nom as hedge to win an amount to cover my exposure on POTUS.
So, best outcome for me is Harris or Warren get the nom and go on to beat Trump. Worst outcome is one of the women get the nom and lose to Trump. I lose lose if that happens. So does the world.
If Biden gets the nom I will be net flat and will then (probably) back him to beat Trump.
That's my MO on this one. You didn't ask, but I'm telling you anyway. Ultimately I'm grateful, your (And others on Harris) opinion creates my betting opportunity 0 -
Sadly, its usually (except in the case of Chris Grayling) SOGAOTEW) (Sack One, Get Another One That's Even Worse.Cyclefree said:
A shame that there isn’t the equivalent of a politics BOGOF. Though I suppose it should be SOSAOF (Sack One, Sack Another One for Free).Beibheirli_C said:
Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentiallyCyclefree said:
I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.Beibheirli_C said:I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
0 -
So it’s based on nothing more than a confident assertion.Yorkcity said:
I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .Casino_Royale said:
What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?Yorkcity said:
I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.
I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.
Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.
Fair enough. I’m backing my judgement with money and laying a Tory majority.0 -
No, they also supply most of the rare earths in it.Casino_Royale said:
Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?Streeter said:
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
Or do they just do it at a price we like?
And China are one of the largest holders of the patents for 5G technologies.
As for their dependence on our buying their tat, many Chinese suppliers are growing considerably more interested in their domestic market.
And their biggest customer is already engaging in a trade war with them, so our leverage is limited.
We have a few universities which would probably go bust without their students, too.
Oh, and our European allies....
0 -
You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).
It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.
I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.0 -
LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.Casino_Royale said:
You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).
It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.
I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.0 -
It is perhaps significant that many natural supporters of the Big Two are of the opinion their own side will lose. A sign of how unpredictable it all is?Casino_Royale said:
So it’s based on nothing more than a confident assertion.Yorkcity said:
I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .Casino_Royale said:
What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?Yorkcity said:
I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.
I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.
Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.
Fair enough. I’m backing my judgement with money and laying a Tory majority.
0 -
Looks ominous. Are those military units from distant parts of China, as they were in Tiananmen Square, 1988?kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
0 -
Johnson will go for an election in the first week of November or he will not. He will not be going to the polls after two weeks of Brexit. His first priority is not Brexit but himself.0
-
Which is why I think it’s more accurate to say that neither will win.dixiedean said:
It is perhaps significant that many natural supporters of the Big Two are of the opinion their own side will lose. A sign of how unpredictable it all is?Casino_Royale said:
So it’s based on nothing more than a confident assertion.Yorkcity said:
I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .Casino_Royale said:
What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?Yorkcity said:
I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.Casino_Royale said:I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.
I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.
Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.
Fair enough. I’m backing my judgement with money and laying a Tory majority.0 -
Well over a hundred Russian agents were expelled from Western countries worldwide.malcolmg said:
LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.Casino_Royale said:
You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).
It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.
I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
It will have set their intelligence efforts back several years.0 -
So we hold all the cards with China as well ?Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
0 -
Can we please try and keep the mind-numbingly tedious Brexit debate out of it for once?Beibheirli_C said:
If only we were part of a large trading bloc with global influence..... *sigh!*Casino_Royale said:Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I’m bored shitless by it and can’t be arsed.
Thanks.0 -
-
It is China asserting itself. It is not going to be deflected by any pressure we can apply.Casino_Royale said:
We regulate products, goods, standards and for ethics all the time. And factories and supply chains modify and adjust every few years.kle4 said:
Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.Casino_Royale said:
Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?Streeter said:
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
Or do they just do it at a price we like?
This is no different.
Europe stood by while Putin helped the Syrian mass murderer kill tens of thousands if civilians and make refugees of millions, more or less on its doorstep.
Do you think a city attached to the Chinese mainland will get any consideration ?
And the world’s onetime policeman is now interested only in US interests.0 -
Malcolm you've had a moment of clarity.malcolmg said:
UK could do nothing in any event , China would swat them in any agenda , be it financial , goods , military. Best to shut yup and keep their heads down rather than be shown to really be impotent fools.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).
We could indeed do f*** all about it. The Chinese pledged that HK would stay "wu shi nian bu bian" (fifty years without change) but not only are we well into that period (and here's us saying things have changed constitutionally since June 2016) but for China, HK is an inviolable part of China, and whether legitimate or not, they evidently see a threat to their political system there and there is not much that we can do about it.
The time for action was in 1972 not now.0 -
I saw one at Alexandra Palace, but not been on oneTOPPING said:
I was on an AZUMA this morning Sunil. I think it was we who were moving not the earth.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Neither have I - but I passed a new 331 (I think) stabled at Edge Hill on the way into Lime Street last year.SandyRentool said:
150s with 3+2 seating are fairly rubbish. Plus many of the seats offer a very poor view out of the window.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sprinters are OK, at least they have four axles per carriage!JosiasJessop said:
(Devil's' advocate mode)SandyRentool said:In happier news, Northern are dumping the first of their Pacers today!
https://twitter.com/Clinnick1/status/1160812935788290048?s=19
The Pacers have served us well. If it were not the them and the 15x-style Sprinters, many rural branch lines that are open today would have been closed in the 1980s.
158s are decent, but Northern have decided to replace the comfy seats with rock-hard ironing boards. Progress!
I've not sampled the new 195 or 331 yet.
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Isn't it simply a reflection of the fact that with the current four-way split in England & Wales, and with the SNP likely to re-hoover up the seats they mislaid in 2017, it's a big ask for either of the big two to get a majority?dixiedean said:It is perhaps significant that many natural supporters of the Big Two are of the opinion their own side will lose. A sign of how unpredictable it all is?
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I suppose the soaring phrase 'Go away and shut up' entered the lexicon.malcolmg said:
LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.Casino_Royale said:
You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).
It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.
I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.0 -
Been there, done that! Nice location. I did Gourock and Wemyss Bay and Largs and Ardrossan last year - apart from Stranraer, done all of ScotRail south of a line connecting Balloch to Falkirk, plus Edinburgh to Leuchars.OblitusSumMe said:
If you take the train out to Gourock you can split your time between the open air swimming pool and identifying the ships on the Clyde.Sunil_Prasannan said:I'm staying in Glasgow next week only to learn they've closed the West Highland Line past Ardlui until Thursday 22nd!
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Didn't they sent ours back too...…...interrupting their long holiday abd cheap boozing.Casino_Royale said:
Well over a hundred Russian agents were expelled from Western countries worldwide.malcolmg said:
LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.Casino_Royale said:
You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).
It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.
I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
It will have set their intelligence efforts back several years.
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Next week, planning to do Croy to Alloa, Ayr to Stranraer and at least one of Cardross to Oban or Cardross to Fort William/Mallaig, given that the line won't reopen till the Thursday. Stirling to Perth could well be a consolation, or past there to Dundee, time permitting.malcolmg said:
More likely an eye closer, be snoozing in no time.SandyRentool said:
You haven't really got the hang of this railway lark, have you!Beibheirli_C said:
195 is the sum of eleven consecutive primes whereas 331 is a primeSandyRentool said:I've not sampled the new 195 or 331 yet.
Neither are new
Spend a day out with Sunil - it will be an eye-opener...0 -
Plus the Americans backed us by banning Oligarchs we didn’t even have the guts to ban.Stark_Dawning said:
I suppose the soaring phrase 'Go away and shut up' entered the lexicon.malcolmg said:
LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.Casino_Royale said:
You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.Cyclefree said:
The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.
(For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... ).
It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.
I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.0 -
Mr. Zephyr, cheers for the reply.
Got to say, I disagree. I'm neither persuaded that just because something should happen it will, nor that the PM has the reasoning power of a monkey.0 -
We can all come up with long lists of excuses about why we can’t do anything.Nigelb said:
It is China asserting itself. It is not going to be deflected by any pressure we can apply.Casino_Royale said:
We regulate products, goods, standards and for ethics all the time. And factories and supply chains modify and adjust every few years.kle4 said:
Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.Casino_Royale said:
Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?Streeter said:
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
Or do they just do it at a price we like?
This is no different.
Europe stood by while Putin helped the Syrian mass murderer kill tens of thousands if civilians and make refugees of millions, more or less on its doorstep.
Do you think a city attached to the Chinese mainland will get any consideration ?
And the world’s onetime policeman is now interested only in US interests.
Like i said, it’s about leadership.0 -
Seemed fine nothing to notice out of the ordinary - seat reservations now digital rather than sticky up pieces of paper, someone coming round every five minutes collecting rubbish, wifi much better than previous LNER/VTEC. Might try to bid on an upgrade on seatfrog to see what first class is like but there really isn't much point as most trains are not ram packed and there's plenty of room, seats, etc.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I saw one at Alexandra Palace, but not been on oneTOPPING said:
I was on an AZUMA this morning Sunil. I think it was we who were moving not the earth.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Neither have I - but I passed a new 331 (I think) stabled at Edge Hill on the way into Lime Street last year.SandyRentool said:
150s with 3+2 seating are fairly rubbish. Plus many of the seats offer a very poor view out of the window.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sprinters are OK, at least they have four axles per carriage!JosiasJessop said:
(Devil's' advocate mode)SandyRentool said:In happier news, Northern are dumping the first of their Pacers today!
https://twitter.com/Clinnick1/status/1160812935788290048?s=19
The Pacers have served us well. If it were not the them and the 15x-style Sprinters, many rural branch lines that are open today would have been closed in the 1980s.
158s are decent, but Northern have decided to replace the comfy seats with rock-hard ironing boards. Progress!
I've not sampled the new 195 or 331 yet.0 -
Fairphone have interesting information about the origins of the components that make up their phones. See https://www.fairphone.com/en/how-we-work/mapping-phone-made/Casino_Royale said:
Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?Streeter said:
Your tat is my iPhone.Casino_Royale said:
If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.kle4 said:
But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.Casino_Royale said:
Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.kle4 said:
Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s very concerning.CarlottaVance said:Looks worrying........
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1160879655424937984?s=21
Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
Or do they just do it at a price we like?
I think Adam Smith would be proud. There's evidently masses of specialisation and mutually beneficial trade. I have no idea how hard it would be to excise one of the largest nodes from that.
Interestingly Hong Kong itself features prominently.
If we are to work towards that we would need to build stronger solidarity between Western countries. At that moment if we were to turn away Chinese students from our universities there would be many other universities in other countries delighted to take them.
I agree that to do this requires leadership,as well as consistency that we could show on Saudi Arabia, for example, but if anything we are going backwards on this in recent years. Brexit is an obvious example.0 -
Gold rising.0
