No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Not true. Even on the basis of Yougov Labour only loses 30 seats to the Tories plus 5 to the LibDems and 5 or 6 to SNP on the basis of UNS. That would take them down to circa 220 seats - higher than 1983 and close to its 1987 result.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes. PS:It was a long long time ago.
Caroline Lucas 2 hrs · Thank you for all the comments on my proposal. I wanted to start a debate, and that’s certainly happened. But I know that it’s thrown up important questions about who is on this list, why all women and why no people of colour.
An all-white list of women isn’t right. I should have reached out further and thought more deeply about who, and what kind of politics, an all-white list represents. I apologise.
Excluding 18% of the population - unacceptable, I apologise. Excluding 50% of the population - acceptable, that was deliberate.
Is 18% of women being non white not a bit high of an estimate , serious question.
Some time ago I had the pleasure of listening to a radio interview with the former head of the NYPD, who oversaw the dramatic and famous decline of violence in NY under the then Mayor (Guiliani, I think.)
He was specifically asked about Stop and Search. He wasn't entirely dismissive and suggested it depended how it was done, but in his experience it caused more problems than it solved. He had a simpler and novel remedy. More money. Huge funds were poured into dealing with the problem, and at all levels - from more police to better probation and after care for released prisoners, as well as an improvement in the justice system generally.
Sounded reasonable to me.
Just need to look at the reduction of funding for youth facilities to find the real reason for street crime.
Actually, reducing the number of school exclusions is my first act on becoming prime minister. There isn’t one magic bullet that can solve this, but school exclusions is gasoline to the fire.
Perhaps, except if your children are at a school where education is compromised by a requirement to keep the disruptors around.
There are other solutions than simply handing them to county lines.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
Caroline Lucas 2 hrs · Thank you for all the comments on my proposal. I wanted to start a debate, and that’s certainly happened. But I know that it’s thrown up important questions about who is on this list, why all women and why no people of colour.
An all-white list of women isn’t right. I should have reached out further and thought more deeply about who, and what kind of politics, an all-white list represents. I apologise.
Excluding 18% of the population - unacceptable, I apologise. Excluding 50% of the population - acceptable, that was deliberate.
Is 18% of women being non white not a bit high of an estimate , serious question.
Good question. I just Googled "what percentage of the UK is white" and the answer came back 81.9% which I rounded.
I don't know if there is a gender split on ethnicities, I would assume any split there is would be relatively minor - though I imagine if any it would be more BAME men and fewer women. But I doubt it will vary far from 18%
I am amazed it is 18% though that may just be ignorance due to it being seriously lower in Scotland at 4%.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Not true. Even on the basis of Yougov Labour only loses 30 seats to the Tories plus 5 to the LibDems and 5 or 6 to SNP on the basis of UNS. That would take them down to circa 220 seats - higher than 1983 and close to its 1987 result.
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Big if ? Swinson has more centre right credentials with her coalition past. I would not say the Lib Dems under her leadership are centre left. What policies suggest she is centre left ?
It would probably take Umunna as LD leader to complete the process, though Swinson has started it.
Remember Chuka was part of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet when the Coalition was pursuing austerity so has more reach to Labour voters than Swinson beyond diehard Remainers
Yes , I would agree with that. Chuka has more string to his bow, than just remain. Nevertheless , he pulled out of the Labour leadership for personal reasons.So I do not know if he can stand the heat of leadership. Also if he can win his current seat , under a different banner.
The LDs won Lambeth containing Streatham in the European Parliament elections so Chuka certainly has a good chance to retain it, if not I expect he will get a plum seat in a by election or next time
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Big if ? Swinson has more centre right credentials with her coalition past. I would not say the Lib Dems under her leadership are centre left. What policies suggest she is centre left ?
It would probably take Umunna as LD leader to complete the process, though Swinson has started it.
Remember Chuka was part of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet when the Coalition was pursuing austerity so has more reach to Labour voters than Swinson beyond diehard Remainers
Yes , I would agree with that. Chuka has more string to his bow, than just remain. Nevertheless , he pulled out of the Labour leadership for personal reasons.So I do not know if he can stand the heat of leadership. Also if he can win his current seat , under a different banner.
That’s a proper betting seat if he stands in the same one. Tight. But I’d bet he’ll lose.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
Some time ago I had the pleasure of listening to a radio interview with the former head of the NYPD, who oversaw the dramatic and famous decline of violence in NY under the then Mayor (Guiliani, I think.)
He was specifically asked about Stop and Search. He wasn't entirely dismissive and suggested it depended how it was done, but in his experience it caused more problems than it solved. He had a simpler and novel remedy. More money. Huge funds were poured into dealing with the problem, and at all levels - from more police to better probation and after care for released prisoners, as well as an improvement in the justice system generally.
Sounded reasonable to me.
Just need to look at the reduction of funding for youth facilities to find the real reason for street crime.
Actually, reducing the number of school exclusions is my first act on becoming prime minister. There isn’t one magic bullet that can solve this, but school exclusions is gasoline to the fire.
Perhaps, except if your children are at a school where education is compromised by a requirement to keep the disruptors around.
There are other solutions than simply handing them to county lines.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Not true. Even on the basis of Yougov Labour only loses 30 seats to the Tories plus 5 to the LibDems and 5 or 6 to SNP on the basis of UNS. That would take them down to circa 220 seats - higher than 1983 and close to its 1987 result.
I suspect they may lose more to the Tories and LDs but even so winning fewer seats than Kinnock and a lower voteshare than Foot is hardly great for Corbyn is it
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I would think not , only one I know of in my family is my daughter was mugged by two yobs. She picked them out but police never did anything as they said their lawyer would not set up an appointment for them to discuss the incident. Luckily she was not injured and bank returned all the cash and insurance paid out on belongings.
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Not true. Even on the basis of Yougov Labour only loses 30 seats to the Tories plus 5 to the LibDems and 5 or 6 to SNP on the basis of UNS. That would take them down to circa 220 seats - higher than 1983 and close to its 1987 result.
So Corbyn loses again?
If Corbyn becomes PM he will clearly be relying on LD gains from the Tories in the South and SNP gains from the Tories in Scotland as most polls give a Labour to Tory swing since 2017 and see Labour losing seats to the Tories.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
They had the pubs to a tee, the dodgy wallpaper etc. I used to like London in those days.
Surely he must be tempted to go sooner while Corbyn is still in post and the opposition is split. I can't see BP being much of a threat if he is advocating WTO Brexit.
The tories will lose most of their 13 Scottish seats and a few in the home counties.
Where do they get their new seats from?
Bolsover.
Start with some of the 28 gains Labour made from the Cons last time. Maybe not the London seats but Canterbury, Stockton South and many Lab/Con marginals should all be easy with a modest resurgence in the Libs vote.
Those MPs can reasonably expect a first term incumbency boost. On the basis of the latest Opinium poll very few would be lost - and would be more than offset by Tory losses to the LibDems and SNP.
Why should first term Tory MPs in Scotland not also get an incumbency boost? Plus most of the top Tory target seats from Labour were not won by Labour only in 2017
Tory MPs elected in 2017 might well enjoy such a boost in Scotland , but their likelihood of survival would depend on the magnitude of the swing against them.Opinium is suggesting barely any swing at all against Labour compared with 2017 - a mere 0.25%. On the basis of that, Labour well restrict any losses to 3 or 4 seats. Moreover, of the 30 Labour seats most at risk to the Tories, 20 could benefit from a first term incumbency bonus.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
They had the pubs to a tee, the dodgy wallpaper etc. I used to like London in those days.
there are a couple of pubs round me still with that cigarette smoke stained wallpaper
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
If you live in a vibrant metropolitan area....
The burglaries were in Herne Hill/Brixton but everything else was in West Hampstead/Hampstead. Not usually described as “vibrant”.
In all my time in Naples nothing bad ever happened to me, other than learning to drive a car like a Neapolitan .......
Already been posted when you were having a screen break, HY. And my post at 6.34 dismantles that spin.
We had a liberal government from 2010 to 2015 that was conservative on economics, we had a slightly conservative government from 2015 to 2019, only now are we going to get a conservative government prepared to get tough on crime
1) trashing your own parties record. 2) Vacating the centre ground.
Okay then. Go ahead. Why don’t you call that election. And we’ll see how current polling is tested in a real general election.
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Not true. Even on the basis of Yougov Labour only loses 30 seats to the Tories plus 5 to the LibDems and 5 or 6 to SNP on the basis of UNS. That would take them down to circa 220 seats - higher than 1983 and close to its 1987 result.
I suspect they may lose more to the Tories and LDs but even so winning fewer seats than Kinnock and a lower voteshare than Foot is hardly great for Corbyn is it
I am not disputing that - but other pollsters present a rather different picture.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I've been assaulted and burgled 6-7 times [twice I have interrupted the burglar in progress].
Twice been able to take the offender to court, once for the assault [GBH - 6 months], once for burglary: I got the offenders reg plate and the Police told me the next week he'd been caught red handed in someone else's home. He pled guilty to that and 18 other offences and was given a 12 month suspended sentence so no jail time.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
They had the pubs to a tee, the dodgy wallpaper etc. I used to like London in those days.
there are a couple of pubs round me still with that cigarette smoke stained wallpaper
Life was brilliant in the 70's and 80's, never been bad mind you but they were particularly good.
Surely he must be tempted to go sooner while Corbyn is still in post and the opposition is split. I can't see BP being much of a threat if he is advocating WTO Brexit.
The tories will lose most of their 13 Scottish seats and a few in the home counties.
Where do they get their new seats from?
Bolsover.
Start with some of the 28 gains Labour made from the Cons last time. Maybe not the London seats but Canterbury, Stockton South and many Lab/Con marginals should all be easy with a modest resurgence in the Libs vote.
Those MPs can reasonably expect a first term incumbency boost. On the basis of the latest Opinium poll very few would be lost - and would be more than offset by Tory losses to the LibDems and SNP.
Why should first term Tory MPs in Scotland not also get an incumbency boost? Plus most of the top Tory target seats from Labour were not won by Labour only in 2017
Tory MPs elected in 2017 might well enjoy such a boost in Scotland , but their likelihood of survival would depend on the magnitude of the swing against them.Opinium is suggesting barely any swing at all against Labour compared with 2017 - a mere 0.25%. On the basis of that, Labour well restrict any losses to 3 or 4 seats. Moreover, of the 30 Labour seats most at risk to the Tories, 20 could benefit from a first term incumbency bonus.
Yougov is suggesting a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories and a 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP ie almost identical
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I've been assaulted and burgled 6-7 times [twice I have interrupted the burglar in progress].
Twice been able to take the offender to court, once for the assault [GBH - 6 months], once for burglary: I got the offenders reg plate and the Police told me the next week he'd been caught red handed in someone else's home. He pled guilty to that and 18 other offences and was given a 12 month suspended sentence so no jail time.
Mrs Brooke confessed she once voted for Tony Blair
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I've been assaulted and burgled 6-7 times [twice I have interrupted the burglar in progress].
Twice been able to take the offender to court, once for the assault [GBH - 6 months], once for burglary: I got the offenders reg plate and the Police told me the next week he'd been caught red handed in someone else's home. He pled guilty to that and 18 other offences and was given a 12 month suspended sentence so no jail time.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I've been assaulted and burgled 6-7 times [twice I have interrupted the burglar in progress].
Twice been able to take the offender to court, once for the assault [GBH - 6 months], once for burglary: I got the offenders reg plate and the Police told me the next week he'd been caught red handed in someone else's home. He pled guilty to that and 18 other offences and was given a 12 month suspended sentence so no jail time.
Where do you live, if you don’t mind me asking?
In none of my cases was anyone taken to court. If I’d caught any of the toerags I’d have cheerfully beaten them to a pulp. Most occurred quite a while back so I generally feel safe. Though it took me years to get over the burglaries, especially as I was in the house asleep when one happened. I’ve also had bicycles stolen.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I worked for the Police. Surely P.A.C.E , which I believe the Thatcher government brought in , was a vast improvement ? I have just finished watching on Netflix , when they see us. A docu drama , on the central park five. What an injustice to five at the time, black children. With the added , Trumps thoughts of the late 80s early 90s.
I know our county has had similar injustice cases. However P.A.C.E must have improved the risk of similar cases not happening.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
They had the pubs to a tee, the dodgy wallpaper etc. I used to like London in those days.
there are a couple of pubs round me still with that cigarette smoke stained wallpaper
Life was brilliant in the 70's and 80's, never been bad mind you but they were particularly good.
Already been posted when you were having a screen break, HY. And my post at 6.34 dismantles that spin.
We had a liberal government from 2010 to 2015 that was conservative on economics, we had a slightly conservative government from 2015 to 2019, only now are we going to get a conservative government prepared to get tough on crime
1) trashing your own parties record. 2) Vacating the centre ground.
Okay then. Go ahead. Why don’t you call that election. And we’ll see how current polling is tested in a real general election.
Being tough on crime is the centre ground.
Plus the 2010 to 2015 Government was a Tory and LD coalition government not a conservative government
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
They had the pubs to a tee, the dodgy wallpaper etc. I used to like London in those days.
there are a couple of pubs round me still with that cigarette smoke stained wallpaper
Life was brilliant in the 70's and 80's, never been bad mind you but they were particularly good.
yes a fun time
what are you up to now, retirement soon ?
Not sure Alan, I am still enjoying it , I get to pick my deals ( I only do the large complex ones for Europe ), work from home etc and get paid well. I will see how it goes but at least in position that if I get fed up I can just go.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
Caroline Lucas 2 hrs · Thank you for all the comments on my proposal. I wanted to start a debate, and that’s certainly happened. But I know that it’s thrown up important questions about who is on this list, why all women and why no people of colour.
An all-white list of women isn’t right. I should have reached out further and thought more deeply about who, and what kind of politics, an all-white list represents. I apologise.
Surely he must be tempted to go sooner while Corbyn is still in post and the opposition is split. I can't see BP being much of a threat if he is advocating WTO Brexit.
The tories will lose most of their 13 Scottish seats and a few in the home counties.
Where do they get their new seats from?
Bolsover.
Start with some of the 28 gains Labour made from the Cons last time. Maybe not the London seats but Canterbury, Stockton South and many Lab/Con marginals should all be easy with a modest resurgence in the Libs vote.
Those MPs can reasonably expect a first term incumbency boost. On the basis of the latest Opinium poll very few would be lost - and would be more than offset by Tory losses to the LibDems and SNP.
Why should first term Tory MPs in Scotland not also get an incumbency boost? Plus most of the top Tory target seats from Labour were not won by Labour only in 2017
Tory MPs elected in 2017 might well enjoy such a boost in Scotland , but their likelihood of survival would depend on the magnitude of the swing against them.Opinium is suggesting barely any swing at all against Labour compared with 2017 - a mere 0.25%. On the basis of that, Labour well restrict any losses to 3 or 4 seats. Moreover, of the 30 Labour seats most at risk to the Tories, 20 could benefit from a first term incumbency bonus.
Yougov is suggesting a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories and a 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP ie almost identical
To be precise, Yougov is suggesting a 3.25% swing. Relying on crossbreaks to judge where things currently stand in Scotland is unlikely to be useful. Election campaigns usually favour the Opposition , and in addition to that the polls are likely to be flattering the Tories a bit on account of a Boris 'bounce' of some kind. Over time that can be expected to unwind , and may well have done so even for an election in mid-October.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
Been pulled over a couple of times , mind you one was for giving a two finger salute to a driver as I overtook them in a residential area, after they had passed me, they replied by waving their warrant card. Car full of them and what a bollocking I got and that was just from the female cop. They were obviously up to something as they did not nick me , just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
They had the pubs to a tee, the dodgy wallpaper etc. I used to like London in those days.
there are a couple of pubs round me still with that cigarette smoke stained wallpaper
Life was brilliant in the 70's and 80's, never been bad mind you but they were particularly good.
And you’d have been 30 - 40 years younger, which may be a related fact. All your own teeth, hair, that sort of thing. Nostalgia has a great deal to answer for,
Surely he must be tempted to go sooner while Corbyn is still in post and the opposition is split. I can't see BP being much of a threat if he is advocating WTO Brexit.
The tories will lose most of their 13 Scottish seats and a few in the home counties.
Where do they get their new seats from?
Bolsover.
Start with some of the 28 gains Labour made from the Cons last time. Maybe not the London seats but Canterbury, Stockton South and many Lab/Con marginals should all be easy with a modest resurgence in the Libs vote.
Those MPs can reasonably expect a first term incumbency boost. On the basis of the latest Opinium poll very few would be lost - and would be more than offset by Tory losses to the LibDems and SNP.
Why should first term Tory MPs in Scotland not also get an incumbency boost? Plus most of the top Tory target seats from Labour were not won by Labour only in 2017
Tory MPs elected in 2017 might well enjoy such a boost in Scotland , but their likelihood of survival would depend on the magnitude of the swing against them.Opinium is suggesting barely any swing at all against Labour compared with 2017 - a mere 0.25%. On the basis of that, Labour well restrict any losses to 3 or 4 seats. Moreover, of the 30 Labour seats most at risk to the Tories, 20 could benefit from a first term incumbency bonus.
Yougov is suggesting a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories and a 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP ie almost identical
To be precise, Yougov is suggesting a 3.25% swing. Relying on crossbreaks to judge where things currently stand in Scotland is unlikely to be useful. Election campaigns usually favour the Opposition , and in addition to that the polls are likely to be flattering the Tories a bit on account of a Boris 'bounce' of some kind. Over time that can be expected to unwind , and may well have done so even for an election in mid-October.
Leaving aside 2017, when was the last time an election campaign favoured the opposition? I'm thinking there's at least a tenable case for February 1974.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I worked for the Police. Surely P.A.C.E , which I believe the Thatcher government brought in , was a vast improvement ? I have just finished watching on Netflix , when they see us. A docu drama , on the central park five. What an injustice to five at the time, black children. With the added , Trumps thoughts of the late 80s early 90s.
I know our county has had similar injustice cases. However P.A.C.E must have improved the risk of similar cases not happening.
PACE was brought in as a result of the Irish miscarriage of justice cases, I believe, and the Runciman report which followed them.
It dealt with the issues of made up confessions, verbals etc. I wouldn’t be confident about there not being future miscarriages of justice because of poor forensic evidence, for the reasons outlined in my article yesterday. Also disclosure - which also was expanded as a result of those Irish cases - has not yet properly come to terms with social media and both police and prosecution are struggling with what this means.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I worked for the Police. Surely P.A.C.E , which I believe the Thatcher government brought in , was a vast improvement ? I have just finished watching on Netflix , when they see us. A docu drama , on the central park five. What an injustice to five at the time, black children. With the added , Trumps thoughts of the late 80s early 90s....
To this day, Trump says they should have been executed - despite their complete exoneration.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Ah, fair point.
So on the same basis, Remain really won the EURef 62.5% to 37.5%.
Makes you wonder why we're bothering with Brexit at all doesn't it?
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Not true. Even on the basis of Yougov Labour only loses 30 seats to the Tories plus 5 to the LibDems and 5 or 6 to SNP on the basis of UNS. That would take them down to circa 220 seats - higher than 1983 and close to its 1987 result.
I suspect they may lose more to the Tories and LDs but even so winning fewer seats than Kinnock and a lower voteshare than Foot is hardly great for Corbyn is it
It is about what we all expected him to achieve when he was first elected Labour leader.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Ah, fair point.
So on the same basis, Remain really won the EURef 62.5% to 37.5%.
Makes you wonder why we're bothering with Brexit at all doesn't it?
Except the Won't Votes were recorded separately from the Don't Knows in the Ashcroft poll
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
Wow you've only been pulled over once?
I've not been pulled over in a few years [since I stopped working nights], but I was probably stopped 20-30 times over a decade [and almost weekly over a few month period].
I think it depends how professionally its done as well. If the officer concerned is polite and professional then its going to go down a lot better than if they're rude and confrontational and treating you as presumed guilty before they find anything.
Yes, just the once.
I think some of the trouble with it is that it can easily seem very personal, unless the officer takes great trouble to explain that it is not so.
just cursed me roundly for 10 minutes.
brilliant !
It was the time of the Sweeney , I had the shoulder length hair , dodgy moustache, etc. They said they would shop me as it was a company car. Glory days.
choose the right TV channel and its still Sweeney time, makes me laugh when I see the contrast with today
They had the pubs to a tee, the dodgy wallpaper etc. I used to like London in those days.
there are a couple of pubs round me still with that cigarette smoke stained wallpaper
Life was brilliant in the 70's and 80's, never been bad mind you but they were particularly good.
yes a fun time
what are you up to now, retirement soon ?
Not sure Alan, I am still enjoying it , I get to pick my deals ( I only do the large complex ones for Europe ), work from home etc and get paid well. I will see how it goes but at least in position that if I get fed up I can just go.
Retirement has a lot going for it, until, when your body has realised it can slow down, 'nasties' start to appear.
No just the opposite. Johnson will own it for good or bad.
Corbyn on the latest Yougov will vote the lowest Labour voteshare since 1918 and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935, so yes No Deal could be the end of Corbyn too if the LDs replace Labour as the main party of the centre left which is possible if Corbynism retains its hold over Labour
Not true. Even on the basis of Yougov Labour only loses 30 seats to the Tories plus 5 to the LibDems and 5 or 6 to SNP on the basis of UNS. That would take them down to circa 220 seats - higher than 1983 and close to its 1987 result.
I suspect they may lose more to the Tories and LDs but even so winning fewer seats than Kinnock and a lower voteshare than Foot is hardly great for Corbyn is it
It is about what we all expected him to achieve when he was first elected Labour leader.
Yes, it was diehard Remainers who inflated the Corbyn Labour total in 2017, they are now voting LD or Green
Briefly, I was on my way to work and it was so tedious I scrolled on by
I was trying to be conciliatory.
Why was it tedious? What was wrong with it?
If you even need to ask the question that tells you all you need to know
No it doesn't tell me obviously as I wouldn't ask the questions if it did.
Firstly I apologised for getting frustrated with you. I would have hoped that would have been a gesture you would accept.
I then tried to explain the issue by removing all the politics and anything contentious by reducing the issue to a logical form of a generic conversation, so no content on which we may or may not disagree.
So what was the issue with it? Why was it tedious?
Briefly, I was on my way to work and it was so tedious I scrolled on by
I was trying to be conciliatory.
Why was it tedious? What was wrong with it?
If you even need to ask the question that tells you all you need to know
No it doesn't tell me obviously as I wouldn't ask the questions if it did.
Firstly I apologised for getting frustrated with you. I would have hoped that would have been a gesture you would accept.
I then tried to explain the issue by removing all the politics and anything contentious by reducing the issue to a logical form of a generic conversation, so no content on which we may or may not disagree.
So what was the issue with it? Why was it tedious?
Apology accepted but I come here to discuss politics not waste my time discussing exactly how I respond to other posters, especially not early in the morning, if you don't like my posting style move onto someone else
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Ah, fair point.
So on the same basis, Remain really won the EURef 62.5% to 37.5%.
Makes you wonder why we're bothering with Brexit at all doesn't it?
Except the Won't Votes were recorded separately from the Don't Knows in the Ashcroft poll
You are only deluding yourself, you know that don't you?
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Ah, fair point.
So on the same basis, Remain really won the EURef 62.5% to 37.5%.
Makes you wonder why we're bothering with Brexit at all doesn't it?
Except the Won't Votes were recorded separately from the Don't Knows in the Ashcroft poll
You are only deluding yourself, you know that don't you?
That's an intriguing paradox. Surely if you know something is wrong, it ceases to be a delusion?
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
No, I was, behind Kings Cross Station (after the redevelopment, I hasten to add). When I asked why, the PC told me he needed some white people to balance the numbers.
Twice in the same afternoon in London. Young ethnic minority male with backpack in a hurry not a good look apparently. To be fair, they were friendly and the second time the guy gave me some kind of scrap of paper he claimed I could show to avoid making it a hat trick.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I've been assaulted and burgled 6-7 times [twice I have interrupted the burglar in progress].
Twice been able to take the offender to court, once for the assault [GBH - 6 months], once for burglary: I got the offenders reg plate and the Police told me the next week he'd been caught red handed in someone else's home. He pled guilty to that and 18 other offences and was given a 12 month suspended sentence so no jail time.
Where do you live, if you don’t mind me asking?
In none of my cases was anyone taken to court. If I’d caught any of the toerags I’d have cheerfully beaten them to a pulp. Most occurred quite a while back so I generally feel safe. Though it took me years to get over the burglaries, especially as I was in the house asleep when one happened. I’ve also had bicycles stolen.
North West. I've lived all over though, in England all the burglaries happened in the North West, one burglary occured in Australia. The assault occured in Stoke on Trent.
I've also known a number of people robbed at knifepoint, including one who was pregnant when someone held a machete to her throat.
I am VERY open to the idea of incarcerating violent offenders, burglars, robbers and others like that to longer prison sentences. People should feel safe on the street and in their own home and anyone who violates the sanctity of that I'm quite prepared to see be incarcerated for a while - not to reduce recidivism, it doesn't work, just to keep the public safe from them.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Ah, fair point.
So on the same basis, Remain really won the EURef 62.5% to 37.5%.
Makes you wonder why we're bothering with Brexit at all doesn't it?
Except the Won't Votes were recorded separately from the Don't Knows in the Ashcroft poll
You are only deluding yourself, you know that don't you?
That's an intriguing paradox. Surely if you know something is wrong, it ceases to be a delusion?
Trump, for example, is seriously wrong in many ways. If only he were a delusion.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been pulled over at night whilst driving with a friend on a Saturday night when I was much younger.
Wasn’t breathalysed or anything. He looked like he was trying to catch me out on licence, insurance and road tax to me.
As a student I had to catch a 5.30am train to London for interview. In January. Weather: Baltic. Pulled by plod cycling to the station. Is this your bike? Yes. What are you up to? Getting train to City. Do you know why we stopped you? Something to do with the balaclava, isn't it officer. Correct. On your way.
My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.
Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.
So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
If you're right, could you please tell me why in the name of holy **** we're doing Brexit (as Conservatives)? If we're going to break the economy, and the Union, and lose the next election anyway! What a disaster for the ages!
As if the Tories do not do Brexit the Brexit Party will wipe them out. Even 260 seats would be 100 more than the Tories got in 1997, if the Tories don't do Brexit they would be lucky to get 60 seats
Plus we have had scaremongering on the economy before and only 46% of Scots back independence on the Ashcroft poll including Don't Knows
Why do you keep repeating this "only 46%" bullshit? If Ashcroft's poll were repeated in a Sindyref2 Scotland will be leaving the UK.
No it wouldn't, not if the Don't Knows went No as they did in Quebec in 1995
Ah, fair point.
So on the same basis, Remain really won the EURef 62.5% to 37.5%.
Makes you wonder why we're bothering with Brexit at all doesn't it?
Except the Won't Votes were recorded separately from the Don't Knows in the Ashcroft poll
You are only deluding yourself, you know that don't you?
That's an intriguing paradox. Surely if you know something is wrong, it ceases to be a delusion?
I can only say that I know I have deluded myself many times that one more drink would be a good thing.
Driving home after a morning's work, stopped for late lunch in a pub. Fortunately only had Diet Coke to drink. Plod in car waved me out of the car park, then followed me, pulled me over and breathalysed me. Seemed VERY disappointed when I was OK. Really nasty individual and I certainly didn't incite him.
Surely he must be tempted to go sooner while Corbyn is still in post and the opposition is split. I can't see BP being much of a threat if he is advocating WTO Brexit.
.
Leaving aside 2017, when was the last time an election campaign favoured the opposition? I'm thinking there's at least a tenable case for February 1974.
1951 saw a clear swing back to the incumbent Attlee Government which had been lagging the Tories prior to Dissolution. 1955 saw no real swing either way. At the beginning of September 1959 - when Macmillan called the election - polls recorded Tory leads as high as 7% - 9%. Things tightened up a lot in the campaign with the parties neck and neck at one stage, and the big Tory majority of 100 came as a surprise but the Tory lead in GB was under 5%. When Douglas - Home called the 1964 election in mid-September the parties were very close in the polls , with the Tories having recovered strongly over the Summer months having been well behind in the Spring. Two weeks before Polling Day the Tories were favoured to be re-elected, though Labour pulled away to win narrowly with a 2% lead. The 1966 election resulted in a Labour majority of 97 and a 7.3% lead in GB - but Labour entered that campaign enjoying leads of 10% - 20%. Little to say re- 1970 election which saw a big swing to the Tories and a shock win for Ted Heath.. February 1974 saw the parties running close together until the election announcement when the Tories surged ahead. Labour closed the gap in the final week and emerged as the largest party - though the Tories did win the popular vote. Labour entered the October 1974 election with leads of 8% - 12% - yet only managed a tiny majority on a 3.5% lead. The 1979 campaign did see a swing back to the Callaghan Government - but that recovery related to the massive 20% Tory leads of Jan/Feb in the Winter of Discontent. By end of March/beginning of April the Tories were still enjoying leads of 10% - 16% - a margin which closed to circa 3% a week before Polling Day with the Tories pulling ahead to lead by 7% on Polling Day. 1983 saw a Tory win by circa 15% - and whilst this was not much changed from the initial margin the Tory vote share dropped in the course of the campaign - which was marked by a significant swing between the Opposition parties in the final 2 weeks. The final polls did greatly overestimate the margin of Tory victory with leads of 21% - 23%.
Leaving aside 2017, when was the last time an election campaign favoured the opposition? I'm thinking there's at least a tenable case for February 1974.
1951 saw a clear swing back to the incumbent Attlee Government which had been lagging the Tories prior to Dissolution. 1955 saw no real swing either way. At the beginning of September 1959 - when Macmillan called the election - polls recorded Tory leads as high as 7% - 9%. Things tightened up a lot in the campaign with the parties neck and neck at one stage, and the big Tory majority of 100 came as a surprise but the Tory lead in GB was under 5%. When Douglas - Home called the 1964 election in mid-September the parties were very close in the polls , with the Tories having recovered strongly over the Summer months having been well behind in the Spring. Two weeks before Polling Day the Tories were favoured to be re-elected, though Labour pulled away to win narrowly with a 2% lead. The 1966 election resulted in a Labour majority of 97 and a 7.3% lead in GB - but Labour entered that campaign enjoying leads of 10% - 20%. Little to say re- 1970 election which saw a big swing to the Tories and a shock win for Ted Heath.. February 1974 saw the parties running close together until the election announcement when the Tories surged ahead. Labour closed the gap in the final week and emerged as the largest party - though the Tories did win the popular vote. Labour entered the October 1974 election with leads of 8% - 12% - yet only managed a tiny majority on a 3.5% lead. The 1979 campaign did see a swing back to the Callaghan Government - but that recovery related to the massive 20% Tory leads of Jan/Feb in the Winter of Discontent. By end of March/beginning of April the Tories were still enjoying leads of 10% - 16% - a margin which closed to circa 3% a week before Polling Day with the Tories pulling ahead to lead by 7% on Polling Day. 1983 saw a Tory win by circa 15% - and whilst this was not much changed from the initial margin the Tory vote share dropped in the course of the campaign - which was marked by a significant swing between the Opposition parties in the final 2 weeks. The final polls did greatly overestimate the margin of Tory victory with leads of 21% - 23%.
So basically, you agree it was 1974 but disagree as to which one it was?
Briefly, I was on my way to work and it was so tedious I scrolled on by
I was trying to be conciliatory.
Why was it tedious? What was wrong with it?
If you even need to ask the question that tells you all you need to know
No it doesn't tell me obviously as I wouldn't ask the questions if it did.
Firstly I apologised for getting frustrated with you. I would have hoped that would have been a gesture you would accept.
I then tried to explain the issue by removing all the politics and anything contentious by reducing the issue to a logical form of a generic conversation, so no content on which we may or may not disagree.
So what was the issue with it? Why was it tedious?
Apology accepted but I come here to discuss politics not waste my time discussing exactly how I respond to other posters, especially not early in the morning, if you don't like my posting style move onto someone else
I don't have an issue with your posting style. That is none of my business. And there are posts of yours I like. If you look back I posted positively about a post you made re Boris.
It is not your style.
I, like many others, get frustrated when you engage in an argument, but then don't. Does that make sense?
You say you come here to discuss politics. But often you just don't.
What do I mean by that?
Well the logical breakdown of a discussion I gave was a prime example and Ian even said in his question something to the effect of having a final go at a logical discussion. But you didn't engage. You replied, but you didn't engage.
I'm guessing that is why he got so annoyed. Like me I was up for an argument with you about our differences on politics.
That is what you said you were here for. But you don't argue with us. You appear to respond with something that has nothing to do with what we said. It is as if we hadn't written our post.
Does that make sense?
You clearly have a good grasp of the polls, more than me, so a discussion with you could be interesting and useful.
This is interesting because the US is stepping up its charm offensive to get us ito their sphere of influence. The contrast to the EU, who want us in their sphere of influence could not be starker. US we will be flexible, sector trade deals before chlorinated chicken, EU this is the deal no change.
Surely our politicians can play this to our advantage.
Driving home after a morning's work, stopped for late lunch in a pub. Fortunately only had Diet Coke to drink. Plod in car waved me out of the car park, then followed me, pulled me over and breathalysed me. Seemed VERY disappointed when I was OK. Really nasty individual and I certainly didn't incite him.
An awful lot of people appear to be unaware that it is a criminal offence for a police officer to stop a car for the sole purpose of conducting a breath test unless they have reasonable grounds to suspect somebody had been drinking. Although I suppose in theory that seeing someone come out of a pub might just be good enough.
Bizarrely, they can however stop a car for any other reason, and then, separately, demand a breath test.
Anyway PB Hard Brexiteers, how is that thread header coming along?
You know - the one which explains how wonderful things are going to be after we crash out with No Deal on 31 October?
You will never get one I’ve been asking for an explanation of the impact of tariffs and no deal brexit for weeks, you don’t even get an answer on the economic benefits of brexit or those awful laws we now suffer from our EU membership. I am left with the belief that the only economic benefit of brexit is for the disaster capitalists and those wNting to hide their wealth from the tax authorities.
Anyway PB Hard Brexiteers, how is that thread header coming along?
You know - the one which explains how wonderful things are going to be after we crash out with No Deal on 31 October?
You will never get one I’ve been asking for an explanation of the impact of tariffs and no deal brexit for weeks, you don’t even get an answer on the economic benefits of brexit or those awful laws we now suffer from our EU membership. I am left with the belief that the only economic benefit of brexit is for the disaster capitalists and those wNting to hide their wealth from the tax authorities.
YouTube rapacious desire for "engagement t" funnels people into conspiracy videos and radicalisation content because the algorithm has detected that people keep watching if the start watching that kind of content.
Anyway PB Hard Brexiteers, how is that thread header coming along?
You know - the one which explains how wonderful things are going to be after we crash out with No Deal on 31 October?
You will never get one I’ve been asking for an explanation of the impact of tariffs and no deal brexit for weeks, you don’t even get an answer on the economic benefits of brexit or those awful laws we now suffer from our EU membership. I am left with the belief that the only economic benefit of brexit is for the disaster capitalists and those wNting to hide their wealth from the tax authorities.
Driving home after a morning's work, stopped for late lunch in a pub. Fortunately only had Diet Coke to drink. Plod in car waved me out of the car park, then followed me, pulled me over and breathalysed me. Seemed VERY disappointed when I was OK. Really nasty individual and I certainly didn't incite him.
An awful lot of people appear to be unaware that it is a criminal offence for a police officer to stop a car for the sole purpose of conducting a breath test unless they have reasonable grounds to suspect somebody had been drinking. Although I suppose in theory that seeing someone come out of a pub might just be good enough.
Bizarrely, they can however stop a car for any other reason, and then, separately, demand a breath test.
Most of us are aware it doesn’t pay for the law-abiding to antagonise the plod, whatever the legal niceties...
This is interesting because the US is stepping up its charm offensive to get us ito their sphere of influence. The contrast to the EU, who want us in their sphere of influence could not be starker. US we will be flexible, sector trade deals before chlorinated chicken, EU this is the deal no change.
Surely our politicians can play this to our advantage.
An alternative view is that they know the Brexiteers will be desperate to show something come out of Brexit and so they know they will be able to drive a hard bargain. The US has already made clear what their areas of focus will be: drug prices and agriculture. Trump’s focus is America First. They are not charming us because we’re hard to get. It’s the charm of someone who knows we’re already an easy lay.
YouTube rapacious desire for "engagement t" funnels people into conspiracy videos and radicalisation content because the algorithm has detected that people keep watching if the start watching that kind of content.
That's a bit chicken and egg. Personally all my YouTube does is show people playing with toys, people dressing up as toys and PJ Masks/Peppa Pig episodes - because I don't really engage with YouTube but my children do.
Anyway PB Hard Brexiteers, how is that thread header coming along?
You know - the one which explains how wonderful things are going to be after we crash out with No Deal on 31 October?
You will never get one I’ve been asking for an explanation of the impact of tariffs and no deal brexit for weeks, you don’t even get an answer on the economic benefits of brexit or those awful laws we now suffer from our EU membership. I am left with the belief that the only economic benefit of brexit is for the disaster capitalists and those wNting to hide their wealth from the tax authorities.
I think many are like me - in favour of leaving the EU but understanding that we’d be a bit richer if we stayed. We’d also be richer if we joined the United States or embraced Chinese Communism; but I’d be against those policies too.
Driving home after a morning's work, stopped for late lunch in a pub. Fortunately only had Diet Coke to drink. Plod in car waved me out of the car park, then followed me, pulled me over and breathalysed me. Seemed VERY disappointed when I was OK. Really nasty individual and I certainly didn't incite him.
An awful lot of people appear to be unaware that it is a criminal offence for a police officer to stop a car for the sole purpose of conducting a breath test unless they have reasonable grounds to suspect somebody had been drinking. Although I suppose in theory that seeing someone come out of a pub might just be good enough.
Bizarrely, they can however stop a car for any other reason, and then, separately, demand a breath test.
As I'd just come out of a pub car park I felt he had grounds. And the way he was acting, I wasn't going to argue.
Anyway PB Hard Brexiteers, how is that thread header coming along?
You know - the one which explains how wonderful things are going to be after we crash out with No Deal on 31 October?
You will never get one I’ve been asking for an explanation of the impact of tariffs and no deal brexit for weeks, you don’t even get an answer on the economic benefits of brexit or those awful laws we now suffer from our EU membership. I am left with the belief that the only economic benefit of brexit is for the disaster capitalists and those wNting to hide their wealth from the tax authorities.
+1 No Deal Brexit will wreck the economy
Could you possibly explain why?
Could you possibly explain why it won’t and what the specific impacts of tariffs and the necessary 3rd nation paper work will have. After which you may like to explain how any of this is of economic benefit to the UK.
Part 2 1987 campaign began with some big Tory leads of up to 18% - some talk of an increased majority and Labour losing second place to the Alliance. In the event, Labour ran a polished campaign and reduced the Tory lead to 4% - 7% a week before Polling day - though the Tories finally pulled away to lead by circa 12%. 1992 was a disaster for the pollsters with none predicting the 7.6% Tory lead.There were serious methodological problems which hid the fact that the Tories were almost certainly ahead throughout the campaign - and there is no strong evidence of a big last minute swing back. 1997 did actually see a Tory recovery despite the Labour landslide - a bit like 1979 in reverse. 2001 saw a second Labour landslide , but again the margin in vote share of circa 9.5% - was a fair bit smaller than predicted throughout the campaign. 2005 saw some swing to the Tory Opposition during the campaign but not of great magnitude. In 2010 Labour had staged quite a recovery in the weeks prior to the campaign. The Debates and Cleggmania threw everything into the air for a while - though the Tories evetually led by circa 7% though failing to win a majority. Very little swing between Tory and Labour in the campaign itself overall.
Driving home after a morning's work, stopped for late lunch in a pub. Fortunately only had Diet Coke to drink. Plod in car waved me out of the car park, then followed me, pulled me over and breathalysed me. Seemed VERY disappointed when I was OK. Really nasty individual and I certainly didn't incite him.
An awful lot of people appear to be unaware that it is a criminal offence for a police officer to stop a car for the sole purpose of conducting a breath test unless they have reasonable grounds to suspect somebody had been drinking. Although I suppose in theory that seeing someone come out of a pub might just be good enough.
Bizarrely, they can however stop a car for any other reason, and then, separately, demand a breath test.
Most of us are aware it doesn’t pay for the law-abiding to antagonise the plod, whatever the legal niceties...
Unless you make sure to tell them that you’re a litigation lawyer in your first breath.
Driving home after a morning's work, stopped for late lunch in a pub. Fortunately only had Diet Coke to drink. Plod in car waved me out of the car park, then followed me, pulled me over and breathalysed me. Seemed VERY disappointed when I was OK. Really nasty individual and I certainly didn't incite him.
An awful lot of people appear to be unaware that it is a criminal offence for a police officer to stop a car for the sole purpose of conducting a breath test unless they have reasonable grounds to suspect somebody had been drinking. Although I suppose in theory that seeing someone come out of a pub might just be good enough.
Bizarrely, they can however stop a car for any other reason, and then, separately, demand a breath test.
Has any policeman ever been charged with this offence?
There is always a catch 22, in any case. If you are exceeding the speed limit you are breaking the law, which is evidence that you are drunk. If you are slavishly adhering to it, that is something nobody with a clear conscience ever does, so it is evidence that you are drunk.
Driving home after a morning's work, stopped for late lunch in a pub. Fortunately only had Diet Coke to drink. Plod in car waved me out of the car park, then followed me, pulled me over and breathalysed me. Seemed VERY disappointed when I was OK. Really nasty individual and I certainly didn't incite him.
An awful lot of people appear to be unaware that it is a criminal offence for a police officer to stop a car for the sole purpose of conducting a breath test unless they have reasonable grounds to suspect somebody had been drinking. Although I suppose in theory that seeing someone come out of a pub might just be good enough.
Bizarrely, they can however stop a car for any other reason, and then, separately, demand a breath test.
Has any policeman ever been charged with this offence?
There is always a catch 22, in any case. If you are exceeding the speed limit you are breaking the law, which is evidence that you are drunk. If you are slavishly adhering to it, that is something nobody with a clear conscience ever does, so it is evidence that you are drunk.
One of the few times I've ever been pulled over by the rozzers was for driving below the speed limit.
This was in the late 90s, in the era before satnavs, I was driving slowly to see what the road signs were saying as I was far from home.
Part 2 1987 campaign began with some big Tory leads of up to 18% - some talk of an increased majority and Labour losing second place to the Alliance. In the event, Labour ran a polished campaign and reduced the Tory lead to 4% - 7% a week before Pooling day - though the Tories finally pulled away to lead by circa 12%. 1992 was a disaster for the pollsters with none predicting the 7.6% Tory lead.There were serious methodological problems which hid the fact that the Tories were almost certainly ahead throughout the campaign - and there is no strong evidence of a big last minute swing back. 1997 did actually see a Tory recovery despite the Labour landslide - a bit like 1979 in reverse. 2001 saw a second Labour landslide , but again the margin in vote share 0 circa 9.5% - was a fair bit smaller than predicted throughout the campaign. 2005 saw some swing to the Tory Opposition during the campaign but not of great magnitude. In 2010 Labour had staged quite a recovery in the weeks prior to the campaign. The Debates and Cleggmania threw everything into the air for a while - though the Tories evetually led by circa 7% though failing to win a majority. Very little swing between Tory and Labour in the campaign itself overall.
I’d suggest that the later realised “shy Tory” problem is a significant part of the explanation for what you describe in 1987 as well. It just didn’t matter so much then because everyone knew the Tories were going to win all along.
@justin124 I've never done mathematical analysis of this but as a hunch I've always felt that the swing in a campaign, if there is one, is against anyone forecast to win a big victory generally.
Excluding years where there's not forecast to be a big victory by either side, if there is one then it seems that hurts whoever was forecast to win big, whether it be government or opposition.
I suspect this is because the forecast winners get scrutinised more, the forecast losers get left off the hook more and also because of tall poppy/keep them honest syndrome.
This morning we witnessed what I would describe as a coordinated attack on one of our thread authors, cyclefree with collateral attacks on Alister Meeks by two or three, relatively new posters. The site I believe welcomes alternative views but could the detractors try writing thread headers explaining why their version of no deal etc will be brilliant or take the trouble to explain how WTO brexit will pan out so we can discuss it. They could also explain why they support disaster capitalists who want to hide their wealth from the tax authorities. If that’s not enough ideas maybe they could tell us why the people in the NE will be better off after brexit.
There wasn't an 'attack' on any INDIVIDUAL this morning.
What actually happened was the group think hysteria and hyperbole was challenged which made remainers uncomfortable in their own echo chamber.
Anyway PB Hard Brexiteers, how is that thread header coming along?
You know - the one which explains how wonderful things are going to be after we crash out with No Deal on 31 October?
Who volunteered to write that? I for one would not for three reasons.
I doubt it will be published.
It would be boring. Things will be bad is far more entertaining. Relates to why it won't be published.
I don't think it is true.
You don't think we will crash out on 31 October? Or you don't think things will be wonderful if we do?
I don't think things will be wonderful.
Ok, fair enough, thanks for clarifying.
I really hope for the country's sake I am wrong but I fear it's going to be an unmitigated disaster. I was kind of hoping someone could give a convincing argument to counter that.
YouTube rapacious desire for "engagement t" funnels people into conspiracy videos and radicalisation content because the algorithm has detected that people keep watching if the start watching that kind of content.
That's a bit chicken and egg. Personally all my YouTube does is show people playing with toys, people dressing up as toys and PJ Masks/Peppa Pig episodes - because I don't really engage with YouTube but my children do.
The YouTube algorithm is... weird. A bunch of people have done comparisons of what they get recommended, starting from a random video that matches their interests. Some people stay on a happy path, just getting a stream of similar video recommendation. Others, however, are directed into anti-vax conspiracy videos or Nazi propoganda within 5 videos every single time no matter what video they started on.
Even children's videos aren't safe (and led to us banning YouTube unless strictly controlled), the algorithm serving up fake Peppa Pig videos with violence and jump scares if you start on real children's content.
YouTube got a handle on the Children's content a couple of years ago due to newspaper backlash but in general their recommendation algorithm is pretty fucking insidious.
@justin124 I've never done mathematical analysis of this but as a hunch I've always felt that the swing in a campaign, if there is one, is against anyone forecast to win a big victory generally.
Excluding years where there's not forecast to be a big victory by either side, if there is one then it seems that hurts whoever was forecast to win big, whether it be government or opposition.
I suspect this is because the forecast winners get scrutinised more, the forecast losers get left off the hook more and also because of tall poppy/keep them honest syndrome.
I entirely agree with your opening point! We see it in the exaggerated predictions for 1966 - October 1974 - 1983 - 1997 - and 2001. In some years - such as 1959, 1979 and possibly 1987 - an initial big Tory lead narrowed sufficiently as to cast some doubt as to the outcome , and that,in turn, may have stimulated a last minute Tory surge.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
No, I was, behind Kings Cross Station (after the redevelopment, I hasten to add). When I asked why, the PC told me he needed some white people to balance the numbers.
Twice in the same afternoon in London. Young ethnic minority male with backpack in a hurry not a good look apparently. To be fair, they were friendly and the second time the guy gave me some kind of scrap of paper he claimed I could show to avoid making it a hat trick.
That reminds me of the (probably apocryphal) stories of the gangs who used to rob people on Ukrainian buses after the fall of the Soviet Union apparently giving passengers slips so they could show the next gang that they’d already been done.
This morning we witnessed what I would describe as a coordinated attack on one of our thread authors, cyclefree with collateral attacks on Alister Meeks by two or three, relatively new posters. The site I believe welcomes alternative views but could the detractors try writing thread headers explaining why their version of no deal etc will be brilliant or take the trouble to explain how WTO brexit will pan out so we can discuss it. They could also explain why they support disaster capitalists who want to hide their wealth from the tax authorities. If that’s not enough ideas maybe they could tell us why the people in the NE will be better off after brexit.
There wasn't an 'attack' on any INDIVIDUAL this morning.
What actually happened was the group think hysteria and hyperbole was challenged which made remainers uncomfortable in their own echo chamber.
This is a discussion site not the Borg.
For a "Remainer echo chamber", there are a remarkable variety of flavours of Leavers regularly posting BTL. We've had a spreadsheet of regular posters, and it's pretty much 50/50. As it ought to be. If you think it is Remain heavy, I can only conclude you are used to your own echo chamber.
This morning we witnessed what I would describe as a coordinated attack on one of our thread authors, cyclefree with collateral attacks on Alister Meeks by two or three, relatively new posters. The site I believe welcomes alternative views but could the detractors try writing thread headers explaining why their version of no deal etc will be brilliant or take the trouble to explain how WTO brexit will pan out so we can discuss it. They could also explain why they support disaster capitalists who want to hide their wealth from the tax authorities. If that’s not enough ideas maybe they could tell us why the people in the NE will be better off after brexit.
There wasn't an 'attack' on any INDIVIDUAL this morning.
What actually happened was the group think hysteria and hyperbole was challenged which made remainers uncomfortable in their own echo chamber.
This is a discussion site not the Borg.
Your approach and attitude to people who take the trouble to put their views up for public scrutiny is at best rude at worst beyond description. Write your own opposing views about the glorious uplands future that you obviously think awaits us so we can see where your coming from otherwise shut the fuck up.
Am I the only PBer who's been stopped and searched?
I’ve been stopped and given a verbal warning, which then was written down in triplicate, for cycling in a London park. Two weeks after the July 2005 bombings when, you might have thought, the police had other priorities.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
I worked for the Police. Surely P.A.C.E , which I believe the Thatcher government brought in , was a vast improvement ? I have just finished watching on Netflix , when they see us. A docu drama , on the central park five. What an injustice to five at the time, black children. With the added , Trumps thoughts of the late 80s early 90s....
To this day, Trump says they should have been executed - despite their complete exoneration.
Comments
PS:It was a long long time ago.
Hence my name.
Incidentally, rather a lot of crimes have been perpetrated on the wider Cyclefree households: 1 rape, several sexual assaults, 2 muggings, 1 homophobic assault, 3 burglaries and 1 driver leaving the scene of an accident after hitting my cycling husband leaving him unconscious with serious head injuries.
(I have left out crimes taking place abroad.)
Is this normal?
Glory days.
If you live in a vibrant metropolitan area....
Luckily she was not injured and bank returned all the cash and insurance paid out on belongings.
In all my time in Naples nothing bad ever happened to me, other than learning to drive a car like a Neapolitan .......
2) Vacating the centre ground.
Okay then. Go ahead. Why don’t you call that election.
And we’ll see how current polling is tested in a real general election.
Twice been able to take the offender to court, once for the assault [GBH - 6 months], once for burglary: I got the offenders reg plate and the Police told me the next week he'd been caught red handed in someone else's home. He pled guilty to that and 18 other offences and was given a 12 month suspended sentence so no jail time.
I cant think of a worse crime
In none of my cases was anyone taken to court. If I’d caught any of the toerags I’d have cheerfully beaten them to a pulp. Most occurred quite a while back so I generally feel safe. Though it took me years to get over the burglaries, especially as I was in the house asleep when one happened. I’ve also had bicycles stolen.
Surely P.A.C.E , which I believe the Thatcher government brought in , was a vast improvement ?
I have just finished watching on Netflix , when they see us.
A docu drama , on the central park five.
What an injustice to five at the time, black children.
With the added , Trumps thoughts of the late 80s early 90s.
I know our county has had similar injustice cases.
However P.A.C.E must have improved the risk of similar cases not happening.
what are you up to now, retirement soon ?
Plus the 2010 to 2015 Government was a Tory and LD coalition government not a conservative government
Election campaigns usually favour the Opposition , and in addition to that the polls are likely to be flattering the Tories a bit on account of a Boris 'bounce' of some kind. Over time that can be expected to unwind , and may well have done so even for an election in mid-October.
It dealt with the issues of made up confessions, verbals etc. I wouldn’t be confident about there not being future miscarriages of justice because of poor forensic evidence, for the reasons outlined in my article yesterday. Also disclosure - which also was expanded as a result of those Irish cases - has not yet properly come to terms with social media and both police and prosecution are struggling with what this means.
So on the same basis, Remain really won the EURef 62.5% to 37.5%.
Makes you wonder why we're bothering with Brexit at all doesn't it?
Firstly I apologised for getting frustrated with you. I would have hoped that would have been a gesture you would accept.
I then tried to explain the issue by removing all the politics and anything contentious by reducing the issue to a logical form of a generic conversation, so no content on which we may or may not disagree.
So what was the issue with it? Why was it tedious?
You know - the one which explains how wonderful things are going to be after we crash out with No Deal on 31 October?
I've also known a number of people robbed at knifepoint, including one who was pregnant when someone held a machete to her throat.
I am VERY open to the idea of incarcerating violent offenders, burglars, robbers and others like that to longer prison sentences. People should feel safe on the street and in their own home and anyone who violates the sanctity of that I'm quite prepared to see be incarcerated for a while - not to reduce recidivism, it doesn't work, just to keep the public safe from them.
If only he were a delusion.
Is this your bike? Yes.
What are you up to? Getting train to City.
Do you know why we stopped you? Something to do with the balaclava, isn't it officer.
Correct. On your way.
I doubt it will be published.
It would be boring. Things will be bad is far more entertaining. Relates to why it won't be published.
I don't think it is true.
It is not your style.
I, like many others, get frustrated when you engage in an argument, but then don't. Does that make sense?
You say you come here to discuss politics. But often you just don't.
What do I mean by that?
Well the logical breakdown of a discussion I gave was a prime example and Ian even said in his question something to the effect of having a final go at a logical discussion. But you didn't engage. You replied, but you didn't engage.
I'm guessing that is why he got so annoyed. Like me I was up for an argument with you about our differences on politics.
That is what you said you were here for. But you don't argue with us. You appear to respond with something that has nothing to do with what we said. It is as if we hadn't written our post.
Does that make sense?
You clearly have a good grasp of the polls, more than me, so a discussion with you could be interesting and useful.
Surely our politicians can play this to our advantage.
Bizarrely, they can however stop a car for any other reason, and then, separately, demand a breath test.
No Deal Brexit will wreck the economy
https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher/status/1160950447156473856?s=19
YouTube rapacious desire for "engagement t" funnels people into conspiracy videos and radicalisation content because the algorithm has detected that people keep watching if the start watching that kind of content.
1987 campaign began with some big Tory leads of up to 18% - some talk of an increased majority and Labour losing second place to the Alliance. In the event, Labour ran a polished campaign and reduced the Tory lead to 4% - 7% a week before Polling day - though the Tories finally pulled away to lead by circa 12%.
1992 was a disaster for the pollsters with none predicting the 7.6% Tory lead.There were serious methodological problems which hid the fact that the Tories were almost certainly ahead throughout the campaign - and there is no strong evidence of a big last minute swing back.
1997 did actually see a Tory recovery despite the Labour landslide - a bit like 1979 in reverse.
2001 saw a second Labour landslide , but again the margin in vote share of circa 9.5% - was a fair bit smaller than predicted throughout the campaign.
2005 saw some swing to the Tory Opposition during the campaign but not of great magnitude.
In 2010 Labour had staged quite a recovery in the weeks prior to the campaign. The Debates and Cleggmania threw everything into the air for a while - though the Tories evetually led by circa 7% though failing to win a majority. Very little swing between Tory and Labour in the campaign itself overall.
Works a treat with doctors too, I find.
There is always a catch 22, in any case. If you are exceeding the speed limit you are breaking the law, which is evidence that you are drunk. If you are slavishly adhering to it, that is something nobody with a clear conscience ever does, so it is evidence that you are drunk.
This was in the late 90s, in the era before satnavs, I was driving slowly to see what the road signs were saying as I was far from home.
Excluding years where there's not forecast to be a big victory by either side, if there is one then it seems that hurts whoever was forecast to win big, whether it be government or opposition.
I suspect this is because the forecast winners get scrutinised more, the forecast losers get left off the hook more and also because of tall poppy/keep them honest syndrome.
What actually happened was the group think hysteria and hyperbole was challenged which made remainers uncomfortable in their own echo chamber.
This is a discussion site not the Borg.
I really hope for the country's sake I am wrong but I fear it's going to be an unmitigated disaster. I was kind of hoping someone could give a convincing argument to counter that.
Even children's videos aren't safe (and led to us banning YouTube unless strictly controlled), the algorithm serving up fake Peppa Pig videos with violence and jump scares if you start on real children's content.
YouTube got a handle on the Children's content a couple of years ago due to newspaper backlash but in general their recommendation algorithm is pretty fucking insidious.
In some years - such as 1959, 1979 and possibly 1987 - an initial big Tory lead narrowed sufficiently as to cast some doubt as to the outcome , and that,in turn, may have stimulated a last minute Tory surge.
That reminds me of the (probably apocryphal) stories of the gangs who used to rob people on Ukrainian buses after the fall of the Soviet Union apparently giving passengers slips so they could show the next gang that they’d already been done.
We've had a spreadsheet of regular posters, and it's pretty much 50/50. As it ought to be.
If you think it is Remain heavy, I can only conclude you are used to your own echo chamber.