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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When we are over the line, Brexit happens, then what?
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fpt
The key issues it seems are: whether MPs can capture the order paper to bring forward a motion; then what that motion might say; and whether it would succeed.
As people have pointed out previously, that relies also on the Speaker. But to craft a motion that would gain a majority is also not trivial.
Nevertheless after the actual act of leaving there will inevitably be a period of relief, however short lived. So voters will turn their attentions to the world after Brexit and how they want it to be managed. I do wonder whether after nearly a decade in office, having presided over unending chaos since the coalition ended, and with gratitude rarely shifting votes (assuming leave voters are even grateful in the first place), this bodes well for the Tories. Surely this must be what Labour is hoping and waiting for, recalling 1945?
I was actually thinking of the Euroswhen I qualified my comment.
Yes, October 31st isn't the end, but merely the end of the beginning.
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1160651722072756232?s=21
This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...
Bonkers.
It's a view.....
1. Saturday afternoon in my local town centre (quite a large town). The high street deserted, except for one establishment doing a roaring trade, a place that mends/alters/refashions clothes and soft furnishings; going full blast with six machinists (all Eastern European) and three "front of house" (all Locals). I believe that it is a franchise called Zip Yard, and I thoroughly recommend it, but clearly a sign of people being careful with their money. ( I have no financial or other interest in the place).
2. My own line of work has always been contrary with regard to the general economy...quieter in boom times and booming when the economy has slowed. I have been doing this for 32 years, so I have seen it more than once. Well 2019 so far has been by a long stretch our highest earning and most profitable year.
Two swallows don't make a summer, but with everything else going on, the portents are not favourable.
Parliament’s ability to influence the course of Brexit earlier this year depended
on specific processes set out in Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act. Under this provision, the prime minister’s deal needed the endorsement of Parliament before the government was legally able to ratify the agreement and, if the government decided it wanted to leave without a deal, then further votes were required.
However, Section 13’s no-deal provisions were tied to a specific date – 21 January 2019 – which has long passed. It is now of no use to MPs who want to express their view on no deal; if Johnson is set on no deal he will not need to schedule any further meaningful votes.
Unlike May’s government, therefore, Johnson’s will be under no legally binding requirement to consult, inform or gain the agreement of the Commons. The government’s control of the Commons order paper, coupled with its ability to bring motions and deploy delaying tactics, now mean that it has a great deal of control over what happens in the lower House. Its control over the Lords is weaker, but any initiative from the upper House could not bind the government without being endorsed in the Commons.
emphasis added
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf
Rather than contrasting with Y2K the better contrast is probably with the election of Blair in 1997 or the election of Cameron in 2010. Overnight there was no immediate change despite all the attention but over time changes were made - some quickly, some obvious, others less obvious and others over a longer timeframe.
Regarding the "tentacles" they will at first still be there. One thing May got right was saying that EU laws would be 'grandfathered' wholesale into UK law unless or until it is replaced with new laws we choose.
The election of Blair didn't undo 18 years of Conservative laws. Reforms to the unions, banning of secondary picketing, privatising and all sorts of other change the Tories had made in the past weren't reversed overnight. A lot of what had been done in the past, some new bits were changed, some bits that could have been done but weren't wanted by the previous regime [like devolution] were done.
That is the point. We will have taken back control. And if we don't like what's next, then we can choose a new government to exercise its powers. It isn't a single event horizon, it is not a complete new beginning to our history either, it is the start of a new chapter though and from which there will be evolution afterwards.
However the reverse is not true. If you have no clue what you are doing you can quite easily crack every last egg in your possession and yet fail to make an omelette worthy of the name.
In which case all you have to show for your efforts is a diminished larder and a godawful mess in the kitchen.
So, No Deal 31 Oct, eggs going neatly in the pan or all over the floor? I think we know the answer. So does Boris Johnson. Which is why I am still betting with confidence that it is a bluff. Political theatrics.
31 Oct will come and go without drama because we will have extended the deadline.
The problem of course is this is the most uncharted of waters. I suppose the only obvious historical parallel would be the break up of the Warsaw Pact, not, I stress, from a military standpoint but let's not forget the former WP countries were tied to the former USSR economically as well as militarily. Each had its part to play in the overall Communist economic strategy producing this or that.
The rebalancing of those economies in the 1990s was often very painful with high levels of emigration, high levels of unemployment and a drastic loss of personal wealth for many and of course huge personal gains for a few.
I'm NOT suggesting anything on that scale for a post-EU Britain but to imagine there will be no costs or pain is unrealistic and we now see the Government prepared to support zombie firms in order (some might argue) to keep the unemployment statistics down. As an aside, artificially low interest rates have done the same for years.
Will the new immigration rules (whatever they are) start on 1/11? There still seems a lot of uncertainty over the rights of UK citizens in the EU after Brexit and presumably we will be ensuring no one but scientists and their lovely families will be entering the UK after 1/11 - no one talks about the former EU citizens who would already be here including those who arrived "looking for work" under the Single Market and have drifted into criminality quite apart from those who work in the black economy.
Will there be a final rush of migrants before 31/10?
I anticipate inconvenience at worst but such as to be annoying and irritating and questions will be asked as to why this wasn't adequately prepared for and this will sap the Government's popularity as it tries to be optimistic about Global Britain when people can't find a pint of milk or (more likely in some areas) their favourite avocado.
As Stodge's ninth law of politics says "it's the little things that bring down Governments, not the big things".
And whether you'd trust the current head chef to make beans on toast.
https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/08/elon-musk-supports-andrew-yang-in-2020-elections/
And describes himself as a socialist.
https://twitter.com/JYDenham/status/1160842405316313088?s=20
As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
I am all for "working together" but it takes two to tango. The EU says it will not negotiate on anything except the terms of the WA which as shownn were unacceptable to Parliament.
So what is your point?
I think the value bet is brexit never happens.
Too many people with money and influence in this country know brexiteers have it wrong.
The fundamental flaw in brexit is the beef is with the political dimension of the EU, not the economic integration. Switzerland is not actually in the EU but has a closer economic integration today than we will have on the outside. And that’s the flaw in the brexit plan, believing to deal with your issues with the political integration you have to become hostile to the economic integration, taking a different global Britain path.
You don’t. Quite simply in years to come with the benefit of hindsight everyone will say you don’t.
Ironic that Grieve has done more than Farage to see that we leave with no deal, and pro-EU MPs voted for us to leave without an agreement.
And that May introduced to the mainstream the very concept of no deal, which defeated her.
The whole thing's been a comedy of errors.
If UK manufactories are not providing any value-added then yes no change in sterling will save them. Nothing will.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-pollsters-forgotten-that-nevada-is-an-early-state/
The potential for Warren (and to a lesser extent Harris) to surprise on the upside is considerable:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/07/elizabeth-warren-nevada-democrats-2020-1449938
We’ve got more than our fair share thank you.
There are many english issues on which SNP MPs get to decide. Voters understand that.
I presume one of your critiques of EU membership has been in the end we are faced with the choice between Jack Johnson and John Jackson or two forms of social democracy and at least outside the EU we can have full blooded Thatcherism (which I assume you'd prefer) or full-blooded socialism.
The problem is leaving the EU doesn't mean we leave the world - we are still members of NATO and the UN amongst a host of others and even though we are the world's fifth largest economy, our economic room for manoeuvre in terms of deficit management and our exposure to global economic conditions, both positive and negative, do restrict the room policy makers have.
https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1160847613429727232?s=20
What is Britain's?
You are delusional to suggest otherwise. Bonkers.
At the EU elections in 2019 44/73 seats were won by parties who said we should leave the EU.
If you respect EU elections so much the implication is clear.
It shows the absurd levels to which the Remain argument has sunk. Brexit has driven some people almost literally mad.
I write as someone who voted 'Remain".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49318050
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7348201/One-five-voters-hoarding-food-medicine-ahead-possible-No-Deal-Brexit.html
As for the UK's balance of trade, we just posted our first trade surplus in eight years: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade
"And The Tories are short of a majority thanks to voters in Belguim voting Lib Dem..."
Oh wait, a two percentage points rise in the rate of inflation to you is marginal. God help us if under those terms we ever get what you might term a substantial rise in inflation.
I can live with that then.
Exiting analogyland, what I envisage is that at some point in Oct, just as the fever peaks, PM Boris Johnson will announce -
"The EU have realized that under my stewardship we are serious about leaving deal or no deal. They have seen sense and have agreed to commence fresh talks with no pre-conditions. They want a deal. We want a deal. We have therefore set ourselves a short and strictly limited period in which to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement. This is the last chance. If a deal that is good for the UK cannot be done we will, I repeat WILL, be leaving the European Union on 27th March 2020. You can take that to the bank."
And parliament will go along with this. Mucho sound and fury, but no successful VONC, no election, no Tory challenge to his leadership.
And then, he either gets a deal through, or he fails and we DO get that election.
Any variation within the 2% bounds of 1% to 3% is normal and marginal yes. Inflation above 3% or below 1% is concerning, hence the letters being necessary at that point and no letter necessary to explain why we have LOW INFLATION at 1.9% as because our inflation being BELOW TARGET it is still within acceptable bounds.
So what is the positive deal that a majority backs which we can get with an extension? As opposed to just ongoing purgatory.
Is there a risk of renewed violence in Northern Ireland? Yes.
How big a risk? I don"t know.
Brexiteers don't seem to care about this, if one believes opinion polls. I find that quite shocking.
Do I think that Britain will end up like Yugoslavia? No.
It is nonetheless a cautionary tale for how apparently peaceful countries can very quickly fall apart when their raison d'etre vanishes. No country is immune if those in charge do not have a care for the country's structures, institutions, society etc. Unifying the country needs to mean more than a slogan.
Do I think that there is a plan for what a No Deal Brexit means and what happens after?
No. Perhaps one of the No Dealers will tell us what this plan, if it exists, consists of.
It's true there was a trade surplus in one month recently. But the monthly average since 2016 has shown very little movement, which is surprising considering the large devaluation in sterling. It's probably because other factors are inhibiting UK trade flows, I wonder what they might be? Do you think the fact that no one knows what trade regime will apply to the UK in a couple of months might be a factor?
The UK Parliament needs to find a negotiated Brexit solution or we need a new general election to find one.
But what is clear is that the author's (and i suspect your) knowledge of the background to the Yugoslavian war, and the history of that part of the world generally, is deficient relative to the claim you are making.