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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When we are over the line, Brexit happens, then what?

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  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Nigelb said:

    Indeed - but if they start believing that, when it comes to their immortal souls, orange is the new black...
    At one stage they believed new born rabbits were fish and thus could be eaten on Fridays...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,443

    The Pacers did serve a purpose. However, they were meant to be a 10-year stop-gap. Extending their life to 2020 (yes, the 144s will still be working in Yorkshire next year) was just treating passengers with contempt.
    I actually thought it was 20 years, not 10, and the class 141s lasted 15 or so. But I take your point. They replaced units that had been built 25-30 years earlier, so have had a longer lifespan than those they replaced.

    However they get far too much hate IMO and not enough commendation (and yes, I have travelled on them).
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    A variation of CANZUK was posited as an alternative to Common Market membership back in the day. Back then, India would also have been a member as a former nation of empire, though I doubt the CANZUKeers would be too keen on that now. (Australia and New Zealand also looked into joining the Common Market, though the idea never really took off.)

    It also assumes that our former colonies want us to be in charge again. There could be a flaw in the Plan :open_mouth:
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    They were not literally unaffordable. It was deemed they were not a priority to spend money on. The government that Patel and Johnson supported - and were a part of - had other spending priorities. They chose to prioritise these over public safety - as their statements about police numbers over the last week have made clear.
    SO did you ever get the extensive list of EU imposed laws that are so terrible that you requested at 12:07?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,328
    The Dem nomination market is irrational so I haven't exactly shaped my book to reflect all these accurately as some may yet shorten etc etc but personally I'd make the book something like this :

    Biden 2.75
    Warren 4.25
    Sanders 6
    Buttigieg 12
    Harris 12
    Booker 34
    Yang 76
    Gabbard 151
    Field 51
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974

    It also assumes that our former colonies want us to be in charge again. There could be a flaw in the Plan :open_mouth:
    If CANZUK were such a good idea, why is there no CANZ waiting for the UK to join? Why does it need the mother country to provide leadership?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    This analogy is almost as bad as Lucas' idea.
    This isn’t the first time that Scott has tweeted this particular London based high end restaurant critic in his support of remain.

    Perhaps if only more of the country had enjoyed the witty barbs that have been honed on substandard mushroom consommés the Leave would never have won.

    Or something 😆.

    But here is definitely no M25 bubble in action here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,997

    At one stage they believed new born rabbits were fish and thus could be eaten on Fridays...
    Going by his reported teachings, Christ displayed decidedly socialist tendencies.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,412

    Bernie, Biden and Warren are all in with a good shot. Harris is behind, slipping, and really has very little going for her which would suggest a recovery
    I think Warren will get it as she is the only one who looks as if she really wants it. The rest look to be going through the motions, or complete outsiders.

    She does have that slightly bossy schoolmarm manner, but doesn't have Hillarys air of entitlement.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974

    Interestingly, this is happening in Nevada, another early state:


    ‘Warren has built a monster’: Inside the Democrats’ battle for Nevada

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/07/elizabeth-warren-nevada-democrats-2020-1449938
    Warren's political trajectory from being a softly-spoken professor to building a campaigning juggernaut that could take her to the White House is pretty spectacular.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,328
    edited August 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    The Dem nomination market is irrational so I haven't exactly shaped my book to reflect all these accurately as some may yet shorten etc etc but personally I'd make the book something like this :

    Biden 2.75
    Warren 4.25
    Sanders 6
    Buttigieg 12
    Harris 12
    Booker 34
    Yang 76
    Gabbard 151
    Field 51

    I'm more certain in the combined 75%+ chance for the top 3 in the betting than the specific odds between them though.
    Edit: I know Sanders is currently behind Harris. That's wrong though and one thing I have shaped my book toward.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Nigelb said:

    Going by his reported teachings, Christ displayed decidedly socialist tendencies.
    Obviously an unsound chappie, member of the wrong sort of club, eh? What?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,412

    If CANZUK were such a good idea, why is there no CANZ waiting for the UK to join? Why does it need the mother country to provide leadership?
    And why do English speaking Commonwealth countries like Jamaica, Guyana, Kenya, Indiaand Nigeria get a look in... I wonder why....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Interestingly the President of the French Channel Ports (Boulogne and Calais) has said that the scares about long delays at the ports post-Brexit are "la bullshit". He says both the French and the British are well prepared and traffic will keep flowing...

    And I suspect he is rather better informed than most PB posters...


    95% of ROI containers exported travel to or through the Uk.

    If the EU conspire to block Calais it’s the ROI economy that gets crucified.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974
    Foxy said:

    I think Warren will get it as she is the only one who looks as if she really wants it. The rest look to be going through the motions, or complete outsiders.

    She does have that slightly bossy schoolmarm manner, but doesn't have Hillarys air of entitlement.

    One fascinating aspect of Warren's platform is that the thing that really drives her - the mission to rebuild the American middle class - is exactly what enabled Trump to go mainstream in 2016.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,943

    At one stage they believed new born rabbits were fish and thus could be eaten on Fridays...
    According to online sources that story is apocryphal, surprising enough.

    But sceptics often believe things that would make the hair of the faithful stand on end ...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Foxy said:

    I think Warren will get it as she is the only one who looks as if she really wants it. The rest look to be going through the motions, or complete outsiders.

    She does have that slightly bossy schoolmarm manner, but doesn't have Hillarys air of entitlement.
    Really? Sanders' campaigning has seemed very energetic to me.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,771

    195 is the sum of eleven consecutive primes whereas 331 is a prime

    Neither are new

    :D:D
    You haven't really got the hang of this railway lark, have you!

    Spend a day out with Sunil - it will be an eye-opener...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited August 2019

    If CANZUK were such a good idea, why is there no CANZ waiting for the UK to join? Why does it need the mother country to provide leadership?
    Oh William! I am disappointed in you. Do you not remember that The Empire was created by and for the British English? The Scots and Irish were helpful and those Welsh folk did dig out lots of coal ...

    Only a resurgent Britain England can hold the reins that guide the world.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,412

    I have to say, I am deeply sceptical that she can beat Trump.
    I am betting on her for nominee. For POTUS a lot depends on the economy, but I think she can do it. None of the others look up for the fight.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    You haven't really got the hang of this railway lark, have you!

    Spend a day out with Sunil - it will be an eye-opener...
    Who for - me or Sunil?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,328


    Really? Sanders' campaigning has seemed very energetic to me.

    I'm halfway through his Joe Rogan interview atm - he is still the one that can't be bought or sold for big pharma gold.
  • Who for - me or Sunil?
    You're only human, Bev :blush:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Chris said:

    According to online sources that story is apocryphal, surprising enough.

    But sceptics often believe things that would make the hair of the faithful stand on end ...
    This is PB - facts never get in way of pushing a good legend.
  • 150s with 3+2 seating are fairly rubbish. Plus many of the seats offer a very poor view out of the window.

    158s are decent, but Northern have decided to replace the comfy seats with rock-hard ironing boards. Progress!

    I've not sampled the new 195 or 331 yet.
    Neither have I - but I passed a new 331 (I think) stabled at Edge Hill on the way into Lime Street last year.
  • I'm staying in Glasgow next week only to learn they've closed the West Highland Line past Ardlui until Thursday 22nd!

  • TGOHF said:

    This isn’t the first time that Scott has tweeted this particular London based high end restaurant critic in his support of remain.

    Perhaps if only more of the country had enjoyed the witty barbs that have been honed on substandard mushroom consommés the Leave would never have won.

    Or something 😆.

    But here is definitely no M25 bubble in action here.
    To be fair, Jay Raynor does get out of London a lot. I really enjoy his columns in The Guardian, and he writes very well. We get more than our fair share of shite Brexit analogies from both sides in here, so why not one from a bloke who can actually string a sentence together?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811

    Neither have I - but I passed a new 331 (I think) stabled at Edge Hill on the way into Lime Street last year.
    I was on an AZUMA this morning Sunil. I think it was we who were moving not the earth.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sean_F said:


    The government can afford to borrow 1.5% of GDP, as opposed to 10% of GDP.
    When we were borrowing 10% some of that was due to the economic crash. Now we are still borrowing after a long period of record employment.

    I guess terms like "structural deficit"are out of fashion these days.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited August 2019
    Off Topic: I just got the Toyota C-HR hybrid. It's really rather good! Never thought I'd be praising an automatic but until full electric becomes practical in rural SE Spain it's very satisfying and something of a head-turner!

    Edit: Not to say remarkably reasonably priced.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,922

    Why Harris?

    She comes over very well to me. Looks and sounds like a POTUS. It's not difficult for me to see her in the role. Many of the others, not so much.

    And then more analytically, I think the Dems will go for a sharp contrast to the hated (by them) Trump. This contrast can be twofold, policy and personal, and I think they will go with one contrast not both (which would be too risky). And I think it's the personal contrast which will prevail. That will be the safer option.

    Therefore Harris as a youngish mixed race woman who is a moderate (not a lefty) fits the bill perfectly. Biden does not.

    And if a stark policy contrast is what they opt for, then I think Warren is a far more likely choice than Sanders.

    So, 'woman beats Trump' is my betting position.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    To suggest that the UK could end up like Yugolsavia potentially, as this article does, i think rather gives the lie to your claim.
    For the nth bloody time I do not compare No Deal Brexit with Yugoslavia.

    I specifically state that there is no precedent that I can think of. The only one that is remotely comparable is Czechosolvakia and even that is not much of a precedent at all. The reference to Russia and Yugoslavia are there as they are interesting facts and and an interesting comparison for Czechoslovakia and how they managed to avoid the difficulties that other ex-Communist countries did not.

    I don’t think the initial days after No Deal will be chaos as I think a lot of effort will be put in to avoid this. I may be wrong on this. I am more worried by the time after this and the fact that there seems to be no plan, no vision, no strategy for what Britain’s relationship with the EU or anyone else will be.

    I have made this point repeatedly both below the line and in a number of other headers over the last few years.

    Rather than put words into my mouth why doesn’t one of the pro-No Deal Brexiteers on here write a header explaining what the plan is.



  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    We'll have some spare diplomatic bandwith to deploy shortly

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/12/british-diplomats-to-pull-out-from-eu-decision-making-meetings-within-days
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited August 2019

    New Thread with incorrect basis for the article

    Update: Somebody is editing it. History is being airbrushed!!!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,436
    Foxy said:


    I think Warren will get it as she is the only one who looks as if she really wants it. The rest look to be going through the motions, or complete outsiders.

    She does have that slightly bossy schoolmarm manner, but doesn't have Hillarys air of entitlement.

    An arguable sliver of native American genes aside, I think all in all Warren wins the authenticity battle. Trump, despite being excrement in human form, is authentic excrement, he sniffs out weakness and phoneyness in an opponent and rips them apart. I think Warren could cope (and has already has as has been pointed out).
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    In real terms as a proportion of GDP we aren't. Debt to GDP is going down not up.

    We can start to afford things now we couldn't previously but must continue to lower debt while doing that.
    Is that still true after the last quarter's contraction?

    Given how well you have said the economy has done over recent years, in terms of employment and rising incomes, I would have thought we would need to be running a surplus now if we are to balance the budget over an economic cycle.

    Or is it only Brown who is criticised for deficit-spending after a long period of economic growth?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,486

    Seriously? Cameron decided not to cut the NHS or Education which presumably you supported.

    As the Party of law and order, the Conservatives made a conscious decision to reduce the number of Police and now you want everyone to think you are the Party of law and order.

    There were plenty of alternatives to reducing Police numbers and closing Police stations as you well know. It was an ideological decision predicated on the premise the way to bring the public finances back under control was for most of the heavy lifting to be done by spending cuts rather than raising taxes. It wouldn't have taken much in terms of additional tax rises to make reductions in Police numbers unnecessary even if you couldn't have found the savings elsewhere.


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,436

    Finally years late Meeks gets it. We want out of the political project that is the EU.

    Those who want out of the political project that is the EU do so out of irrational and visceral hatred of it? I applaud your honesty.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I'm staying in Glasgow next week only to learn they've closed the West Highland Line past Ardlui until Thursday 22nd!

    If you take the train out to Gourock you can split your time between the open air swimming pool and identifying the ships on the Clyde.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,131

    You haven't really got the hang of this railway lark, have you!

    Spend a day out with Sunil - it will be an eye-opener...
    More likely an eye closer, be snoozing in no time.
  • malcolmg said:

    More likely an eye closer, be snoozing in no time.
    Next week, planning to do Croy to Alloa, Ayr to Stranraer and at least one of Cardross to Oban or Cardross to Fort William/Mallaig, given that the line won't reopen till the Thursday. Stirling to Perth could well be a consolation, or past there to Dundee, time permitting.
  • If you take the train out to Gourock you can split your time between the open air swimming pool and identifying the ships on the Clyde.
    Been there, done that! Nice location. I did Gourock and Wemyss Bay and Largs and Ardrossan last year - apart from Stranraer, done all of ScotRail south of a line connecting Balloch to Falkirk, plus Edinburgh to Leuchars.
  • TOPPING said:

    I was on an AZUMA this morning Sunil. I think it was we who were moving not the earth.
    I saw one at Alexandra Palace, but not been on one :(
  • Cyclefree said:

    For the nth bloody time I do not compare No Deal Brexit with Yugoslavia.

    I specifically state that there is no precedent that I can think of. The only one that is remotely comparable is Czechosolvakia and even that is not much of a precedent at all. The reference to Russia and Yugoslavia are there as they are interesting facts and and an interesting comparison for Czechoslovakia and how they managed to avoid the difficulties that other ex-Communist countries did not.

    I don’t think the initial days after No Deal will be chaos as I think a lot of effort will be put in to avoid this. I may be wrong on this. I am more worried by the time after this and the fact that there seems to be no plan, no vision, no strategy for what Britain’s relationship with the EU or anyone else will be.

    I have made this point repeatedly both below the line and in a number of other headers over the last few years.

    Rather than put words into my mouth why doesn’t one of the pro-No Deal Brexiteers on here write a header explaining what the plan is.



    Then why bother to quote the break up of Yugoslavia at all as a comparator?? ...unless you want the inference to be drawn. If it's not relevant dont quote it!!!

    You protest too much...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    NEW FRED
This discussion has been closed.