politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The year of three Prime Ministers
Comments
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Why only three ?david_herdson said:On topic, Alastair is both right and wrong.
There is a very reasonable chance of 3 PMs this year. The next one - if there is a next one this year - will not, however, be a Tory.
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Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party votersThe_Taxman said:
In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....HYUFD said:
Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographicFlanner said:
Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.Marx said:
Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.numbertwelve said:I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.
I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.
He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.
I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.
Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.
All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.0 -
BBC News - Carl Beech: Tom Watson says he held meeting 'to reassure him'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49086717
Some serious rewriting of history by tommy....nothing to do with, i was present but not involved.0 -
What has Boris ever got done?HYUFD said:
He campaigned for Leave but what has he ever been instrumental in changing something other than keeping that woman in an Iranian jail for a longer period than was initially the case!0 -
My wife had breast cancer a few years ago. It is a very worrying time and you will need all the family and friends support you can get. It is good she is going out with friends tonight and she should continue to do so. You should also seek support as it can be quite an emotional time for a spouse.twistedfirestopper3 said:So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
I dunno what the fuck to do next.
From our Internet research into the latest scientific papers on Breast Cancers, there are lots of different types, so you can not get a good read across from one person's treatment to another's.
I would advise to get the cancer DNA tested. This is likely to help with diagnosis and getting the right treatment. Some breast cancers are slow and easily treated, others are faster and more malign.
All the best and good luck to you and your wife.0 -
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Very sorry to hear that, best wishes to you and your family and hope your wife makes a full recovery.twistedfirestopper3 said:So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
I dunno what the fuck to do next.0 -
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Cheers, all.
I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
Reality can wait a little longer.0 -
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Is this the same Canada that will not rollover the deal that the UK and Canada have through EU membership? I thought Brexiteers said it would be easy to transfer current trading relations with friendly countries on a like for like basis. Another, naive and crass act of stupidity that Brexiteers have inflicted on unsuspecting people....HYUFD said:0 -
Sore loser Nicola calling for indyref2 - who saw that coming?HYUFD said:1 -
https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp/status/1153742494699589635?s=20williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp/status/1153742496209543168?s=20
and plenty more.... wow that's a thread and a half...0 -
Dream on!HYUFD said:
Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party votersThe_Taxman said:
In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....HYUFD said:
Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographicFlanner said:
Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.Marx said:
Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.numbertwelve said:I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.
I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.
He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.
I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.
Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.
All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.0 -
until the headbangers fail to get their unicorns and then start turning on another Tory leader.... but this one will be a delight to see.Benpointer said:
Dream on!HYUFD said:
Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party votersThe_Taxman said:
In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....HYUFD said:
Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographicFlanner said:
Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.Marx said:
Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.numbertwelve said:I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.
I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.
He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.
I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.
Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.
All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.0 -
@twistedfirestopper3 that sucks, hoping for good news for you and your wife!
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I noticed in the last few weeks he said he is going to contest the next GE, presumably as an independent. I am sure the payment that defeated MPs get is nothing to do with it? On the same level would he vote no confidence in a BJ Government as it would probably mean an early GE and that means redundancy...Scott_P said:
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@twistedfirestopper3
So sorry to hear that news. My thoughts are with you and your wife.
My very best wishes to you both.0 -
Because not all Torys would be on the leave side. Osborne would pile in, etc blue on blue all over again and as you say if Boris lost then he would have to resign. So he will not do it.edmundintokyo said:
Why would losing split the Tories? We know which side the Tories would be on: The defeated Leave side. They'd be united behind their defeated Leaver leader.ralphmalph said:
2) No chance too much risk he would lose and it would split the Torys again.
Did losing IndyRef split the SNP?0 -
How has there not been a recall petition here?Scott_P said:0 -
Have just read the Jared O'Mara tweets. Some wee came out... *giggles*0
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There would be Tories in both sides on the referendum but Labour would have that too. Once it's over the result is clear, there's no disagreement over what to do next, and the leadership is on the same side as the membership, which is as united as they can hope to get.ralphmalph said:Because not all Torys would be on the leave side. Osborne would pile in, etc blue on blue all over again and as you say if Boris lost then he would have to resign. So he will not do it.
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The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.
It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!1 -
Very sorry to hear that all best wishes for a full recovery.twistedfirestopper3 said:So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
I dunno what the fuck to do next.0 -
That guy has been playing classics all night. It was the wombles theme earlier, just as Heseltine was getting going.0
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You've got to hand to them it's placed perfectly so pretty much every news channel in the area has it on. BBC, C4, Sky, CNN (I've not tried any others but I assume the same). it's the least annoying protest there's been there (better than the stop brexit guy).solarflare said:The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.
It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!0 -
Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.edmundintokyo said:
There would be Tories in both sides on the referendum but Labour would have that too. Once it's over the result is clear, there's no disagreement over what to do next, and the leadership is on the same side as the membership, which is as united as they can hope to get.ralphmalph said:Because not all Torys would be on the leave side. Osborne would pile in, etc blue on blue all over again and as you say if Boris lost then he would have to resign. So he will not do it.
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So sorry to hear that. You have my very best wishes for the finest outcome. You know, the ones I keep for special occasions, on top of the wardrobe.....twistedfirestopper3 said:So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
I dunno what the fuck to do next.0 -
I don't like the stop Brexit guy even though I think Brexit should be stopped. It is just unpleasant the way he shouts it out and actually it activates a base fear in me. My reaction would be to walk/run away from someone like that and I sometimes turn the TV sound down or change channel. When he used to strategically position himself with a placard that was fine but the shouting I cannot tolerate....spudgfsh said:
You've got to hand to them it's placed perfectly so pretty much every news channel in the area has it on. BBC, C4, Sky, CNN (I've not tried any others but I assume the same). it's the least annoying protest there's been there (better than the stop brexit guy).solarflare said:The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.
It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!0 -
Yes. Although I think if the MP is suspended by the House for long enough that would also count. O'Mara is a good example of why extending the recall provisions would be a good idea.Gaz said:0 -
As opposed to now, when the *current* chancellor is going at the incoming Prime Minister, and nobody's sure whether he's lose a Vote of Confidence because members of his own party vote against him...ralphmalph said:Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.
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Jared O’Mara is the second worst Jared ever, after that character in the terminally unfunny Radio 4 comedy “Party” with the annoying voice.0
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Maybe MPs should have to turn up for a given percentage of time coupled with frequency. Exemption could be made for Ministers etc. I think local Cllrs have to show commitment and if they fail to do so they are ousted and a by-election takes place. A similar system should take place for MPs unless they are ill, although O'Mara has IIRC had health issues. Difficult one...OblitusSumMe said:
Yes. Although I think if the MP is suspended by the House for long enough that would also count. O'Mara is a good example of why extending the recall provisions would be a good idea.Gaz said:0 -
Shit news fire stopper.twistedfirestopper3 said:Cheers, all.
I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
Reality can wait a little longer.
Best wishes to you and your family0 -
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His track record is spotty, and that's being generous. Politicians kissing arse is the norm, but still repulsive. I hope May is more honest tomorrow about Britain Trump.The_Taxman said:
What has Boris ever got done?HYUFD said:
He campaigned for Leave but what has he ever been instrumental in changing something other than keeping that woman in an Iranian jail for a longer period than was initially the case!0 -
Then don’t read this post if you are feeling so thin skinned. I think you argued this header confidently and with panache. But it is wrong. It will date horribly. People will keep it and throw it back at you.AlastairMeeks said:
If you look back to that supposed prediction you will see that I specifically said I didn’t think it would happen:MikeL said:One feature of PB is how predictions are sprayed around and when they don't happen we get silence as if the prediction had never been made.
Today is a classic example - anyone wanted to disrupt Boris's appointment tomorrow they would surely have acted today.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/24/the-final-step-why-the-leader-of-the-conservative-party-does-not-automatically-become-prime-minister/
Every year I make predictions for the year ahead and every year I review how I did.
So I don’t think you’re being very fair, to me at least.
Fact is as some bone pointed out politely below, If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, the same with thatcher, wasn’t supposed to be there for ten years at the start, Thatcherism and the iron maiden moniker all came later, truth is Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen.
Boris is different than that as i think he does look set to be there for at least ten years, now he’s the king of the brexit plurality. The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited and will remain in power for the next ten years at least.
Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left have not learnt any lessons, Libdem bollocks to brexit best deal is current deal is laughable, what Cameron brought back addresses the concerns of the leave voters more than current deal, and without winning them over you lose and go on losing, and Labour dont have the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters either.
The header is wrong because winning is not about majority’s but pluralities. Boris doesn’t need a majority anywhere, he merely needs to surf the plurality to two landslides against divided opposition the same way Thatcher did.
And wrong because EU doesn’t cave to Boris, they cave to their own wish to grant a brexit deal to avoid no deal brexit0 -
He will not be Chancellor tomorrow, so it will be backbench MP. The first objective Boris needs is a united, non rebellious cabinet, because the shambles May has allowed over the last 2 years has done her all the damage. No referendum, Boris can enforce to a degree cabinet responsibility, look at Rudd. Call a referendum all hell gets let loose again.edmundintokyo said:
As opposed to now, when the *current* chancellor is going at the incoming Prime Minister, and nobody's sure whether he's lose a Vote of Confidence because members of his own party vote against him...ralphmalph said:Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.
So in simple terms keep it in Cabinet he has a measure of control, call a referendum he has none.0 -
It is a Catch 22. He can't have a cabinet full of full on Brexiters because they won't be able to deliver full on Brexit. They might have half a chance at getting the deal through though and perhaps that is the plan.ralphmalph said:
He will not be Chancellor tomorrow, so it will be backbench MP. The first objective Boris needs is a united, non rebellious cabinet, because the shambles May has allowed over the last 2 years has done her all the damage. No referendum, Boris can enforce to a degree cabinet responsibility, look at Rudd. Call a referendum all hell gets let loose again.edmundintokyo said:
As opposed to now, when the *current* chancellor is going at the incoming Prime Minister, and nobody's sure whether he's lose a Vote of Confidence because members of his own party vote against him...ralphmalph said:Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.
So in simple terms keep it in Cabinet he has a measure of control, call a referendum he has none.
Play all the ERGers for dolts. Which to be fair they all are.0 -
Have you all been to The Comms Guy’s own Twitter (@garetharnolduk). Some pretty gruesome tales on there since he quit on jared’s own feed.
Oh.. and asking for a job for his boyfriend, who also works/ed for JO’M!0 -
If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.Zephyr said:
Then don’t read this post if you are feeling so thin skinned. I think you argued this header confidently and with panache. But it is wrong. It will date horribly. People will keep it and throw it back at you.AlastairMeeks said:
If you look back to that supposed prediction you will see that I specifically said I didn’t think it would happen:MikeL said:One feature of PB is how predictions are sprayed around and when they don't happen we get silence as if the prediction had never been made.
Today is a classic example - anyone wanted to disrupt Boris's appointment tomorrow they would surely have acted today.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/24/the-final-step-why-the-leader-of-the-conservative-party-does-not-automatically-become-prime-minister/
Every year I make predictions for the year ahead and every year I review how I did.
So I don’t think you’re being very fair, to me at least.
Fact is as some bone pointed out politely below, If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, the same with thatcher, wasn’t supposed to be there for ten years at the start, Thatcherism and the iron maiden moniker all came later, truth is Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen.
Boris is different than that as i think he does look set to be there for at least ten years, now he’s the king of the brexit plurality. The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited and will remain in power for the next ten years at least.
Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left have not learnt any lessons, Libdem bollocks to brexit best deal is current deal is laughable, what Cameron brought back addresses the concerns of the leave voters more than current deal, and without winning them over you lose and go on losing, and Labour dont have the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters either.
The header is wrong because winning is not about majority’s but pluralities. Boris doesn’t need a majority anywhere, he merely needs to surf the plurality to two landslides against divided opposition the same way Thatcher did.
And wrong because EU doesn’t cave to Boris, they cave to their own wish to grant a brexit deal to avoid no deal brexit0 -
DittoMarqueeMark said:
So sorry to hear that. You have my very best wishes for the finest outcome. You know, the ones I keep for special occasions, on top of the wardrobe.....twistedfirestopper3 said:So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
I dunno what the fuck to do next.
My late wife had breast cancer and had a mastectomy, but she did NOT die from it. Amazing advances are being made.
The best advice I can give to TTFS is give his wife 100% support (which I know he will) but it bears restating. A cuddle thro the difficult times is invaluable/priceless0 -
That doesn't sound like Farage himself is all that convinced by it!Scott_P said:
Farage won't want to roll over that easy, not so long ago he was entertaining the prospect of being PM himself, and if Boris doesn't deliver by the 31st he will fancy his chances in the ensuing election.
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I’m keeping your post.Dadge said:
If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.Zephyr said:
Then don’t read this post if you are feeling so thin skinned. I think you argued this header confidently and with panache. But it is wrong. It will date horribly. People will keep it and throw it back at you.AlastairMeeks said:
If you look back to that supposed prediction you will see that I specifically said I didn’t think it would happen:MikeL said:One feature of PB is how predictions are sprayed around and when they don't happen we get silence as if the prediction had never been made.
Today is a classic example - anyone wanted to disrupt Boris's appointment tomorrow they would surely have acted today.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/24/the-final-step-why-the-leader-of-the-conservative-party-does-not-automatically-become-prime-minister/
Every year I make predictions for the year ahead and every year I review how I did.
So I don’t think you’re being very fair, to me at least.
Fact is as some bone pointed out politely below, If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, the same with thatcher, wasn’t supposed to be there for ten years at the start, Thatcherism and the iron maiden moniker all came later, truth is Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen.
Boris is different than that as i think he does look set to be there for at least ten years, now he’s the king of the brexit plurality. The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited and will remain in power for the next ten years at least.
Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left have not learnt any lessons, Libdem bollocks to brexit best deal is current deal is laughable, what Cameron brought back addresses the concerns of the leave voters more than current deal, and without winning them over you lose and go on losing, and Labour dont have the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters either.
The header is wrong because winning is not about majority’s but pluralities. Boris doesn’t need a majority anywhere, he merely needs to surf the plurality to two landslides against divided opposition the same way Thatcher did.
And wrong because EU doesn’t cave to Boris, they cave to their own wish to grant a brexit deal to avoid no deal brexit0 -
Stooooooooooooooooooop brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrexiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.The_Taxman said:
I don't like the stop Brexit guy even though I think Brexit should be stopped. It is just unpleasant the way he shouts it out and actually it activates a base fear in me. My reaction would be to walk/run away from someone like that and I sometimes turn the TV sound down or change channel. When he used to strategically position himself with a placard that was fine but the shouting I cannot tolerate....spudgfsh said:
You've got to hand to them it's placed perfectly so pretty much every news channel in the area has it on. BBC, C4, Sky, CNN (I've not tried any others but I assume the same). it's the least annoying protest there's been there (better than the stop brexit guy).solarflare said:The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.
It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!1 -
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Don't worry I've been stockpiling since 2002... Some of the vintage ones are ace!SquareRoot said:0 -
YouGov/The Times poll of Labour Party members:
81% support referendum on Irish reunification
49% support Scottish independence
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi390k7ca3/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_ww.pdf0 -
Sad news FireStopper.0
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I was there in the eighties, and Thatcher and Thatcherism was clearly a minority position. As a black mirror imagine Trump winning twenty 20 from a clear minority position, as Cortez and Harris both stand against him and divide up the majority vote amongst themselves with manifestos similar to each other and drastically different to trumps. That’s the british elections of 83, 87, 2020 and 2025.HYUFD said:
Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party votersThe_Taxman said:
In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....HYUFD said:
Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographicFlanner said:
Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.Marx said:
Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.numbertwelve said:I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.
I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.
He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.
I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.
Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.
All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.
When history gets written winners tend to come out better than they were0 -
Aren’t they made in Poland?SquareRoot said:0 -
Nigel is probably embarrassed that his big mate Donald is too 'closeted' to realize that Nigel and Boris are hated enemies bent on each other's destruction. And if Nigel did tell Donald that he's clearly forgotten or wasn't listening in the first place.Paristonda said:
That doesn't sound like Farage himself is all that convinced by it!Scott_P said:
Farage won't want to roll over that easy, not so long ago he was entertaining the prospect of being PM himself, and if Boris doesn't deliver by the 31st he will fancy his chances in the ensuing election.0 -
DUP to demand more cash for propping up Tories 'in coming weeks' in early warning to Boris Johnson
Arlene Foster tells incoming prime minister the £1bn-plus confidence and supply agreement must be renewed ‘over the coming weeks’
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dup-boris-tories-money-confidence-supply-agreement-billion-a9017681.html0 -
Trump was completely disinterested in what a Nadia Murad, a woman whose family have been murdered and is a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, was saying to him the other day. Unless Farage mentions something that might enrich Trump I expect it goes straight in one ear and out the other.Stark_Dawning said:And if Nigel did tell Donald that he's clearly forgotten or wasn't listening in the first place.
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NEW THREAD0
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A night of thunderstorms looms. They are already underway along the Normandy coast and will be heading north overnight.0
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39% support Independence with 20% saying Don't Know.StuartDickson said:YouGov/The Times poll of Labour Party members:
81% support referendum on Irish reunification
49% support Scottish independence
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi390k7ca3/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_ww.pdf0 -
The comparison between the 80s and now is simplistic, but what you posit is not impossible.Zephyr said:
I was there in the eighties, and Thatcher and Thatcherism was clearly a minority position. As a black mirror imagine Trump winning twenty 20 from a clear minority position, as Cortez and Harris both stand against him and divide up the majority vote amongst themselves with manifestos similar to each other and drastically different to trumps. That’s the british elections of 83, 87, 2020 and 2025.HYUFD said:
Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party votersThe_Taxman said:
In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....HYUFD said:
Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographicFlanner said:
Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.Marx said:
Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.
All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.
When history gets written winners tend to come out better than they were
It is, however, somewhat unlikely.0 -
Customary to exclude dk: standard presentation of poll findings.justin124 said:
39% support Independence with 20% saying Don't Know.StuartDickson said:YouGov/The Times poll of Labour Party members:
81% support referendum on Irish reunification
49% support Scottish independence
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi390k7ca3/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_ww.pdf
The details are in the linked table.0 -
A pigeon farts in Trafalgar Square, and Sturgeon says because it wasn't a s**t it was an insult against Scotland and Scotland will be Free after iRef2JBriskinindyref2 said:
Sore loser Nicola calling for indyref2 - who saw that coming?HYUFD said:1 -
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The Wombles theme - "remember you're a womble bla bla" is utter tat but Wombling Merry Christmas - "all day long we will be wombelling in the sun etc" - is in a different league entirely. It's a much underrated song.WhisperingOracle said:That guy has been playing classics all night. It was the wombles theme earlier, just as Heseltine was getting going.
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NEW THREAD
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Year of three Prime Ministers and, as it happens, a day of three threads; this one has now resigned.0
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Best wishes, cancer is truly awful :Etwistedfirestopper3 said:Cheers, all.
I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
Reality can wait a little longer.0 -
Just checked in and saw your news.twistedfirestopper3 said:Cheers, all.
I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
Reality can wait a little longer.
The Glenfield breast unit is excellent. I know them reasonably well and have faith in them. They get good results.
I have a cousin in a similar position. Aged 44 she found a lump and within weeks it was had spread. Next month we are celebrating her 50th birthday and she is to all appearances physically and mentally well. Her chemo is ongoing, but she never found it too gruelling and just gets on with it. She is fairly meticulous about it.
One thing she swears by is a dairy and soya free diet. This is not just voodoo, but based upon oestrogens, which are stimulators for breast cancer. By avoiding these she has done far better than her original prognosis suggested. Mrs TFS may want to consider this.
Health is the great leveller, and to be prized and appreciated. Best wishes.1 -
Whatever ones’ views on Boris, Soames is pompous and unpleasant. Rather like his father, in fact....Scott_P said:0 -
Great points. But there is something important you may be missing.Zephyr said:I was there in the eighties, and Thatcher and Thatcherism was clearly a minority position. As a black mirror imagine Trump winning twenty 20 from a clear minority position, as Cortez and Harris both stand against him and divide up the majority vote amongst themselves with manifestos similar to each other and drastically different to trumps. That’s the british elections of 83, 87, 2020 and 2025.
When history gets written winners tend to come out better than they were
Remainers are - on balance and on the whole - just that little bit more intelligent than Leavers. I think this is generally accepted.
So if the next election revolves around tactical voting it is more likely to work to the advantage of Labour and Lib Dem than Con and BP.0 -
Really sorry to hear this.Nigelb said:@twistedfirestopper3 that is terrible. Please accept my best wishes, too.
Ask about immunotherapy; if appropriate, then can be greatly preferable to chemo.
https://www.cancerresearch.org/immunotherapy/cancer-types/breast-cancer
You must do what you think best, but FWIW I agree with the others that openness is best.
Obviously 'helpful' advice is probably not what you, or your wife most wants at this stage, but as, someone has already made a suggestion, I'll add, please explore complementary aspects of treatment like diet.
Cancer is not a natural state for the body, and the physiology of a cancer is different to that of a human. Cancers metabolise glucose (they live on sugar) whereas our bodies can live by burning fat. Many cancer patients therefore choose a ketogenic diet, minimising sugars and carbs, effectively depriving their cancer of its food source.
Doctors are not trained in nutrition, and in my (second hand) experience, oncologists will often ignore dietary and other lifestyle aspects. I think this is unwise. Ask them the tough, complex questions and don't accept glib answers.
I truly believe that your wife can be fully restored to health. Wish you all the best.
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Apparently I've sacked Penny Morduant, reappointed Theresa Villiers (insane) and reinstated Gavin Williamson (who by all accounts was a twat as a pottery seller).
Fucking unbelievable.0
