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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The year of three Prime Ministers

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    On topic, Alastair is both right and wrong.

    There is a very reasonable chance of 3 PMs this year. The next one - if there is a next one this year - will not, however, be a Tory.

    Why only three ? :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Flanner said:

    Marx said:

    I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.

    I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.

    He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.

    I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.

    Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.

    Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.
    Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.

    All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.
    Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographic
    In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....
    Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party voters
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    BBC News - Carl Beech: Tom Watson says he held meeting 'to reassure him'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49086717

    Some serious rewriting of history by tommy....nothing to do with, i was present but not involved.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:
    What has Boris ever got done?

    He campaigned for Leave but what has he ever been instrumental in changing something other than keeping that woman in an Iranian jail for a longer period than was initially the case!
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543

    So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
    Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
    Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
    Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
    I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
    I dunno what the fuck to do next.

    My wife had breast cancer a few years ago. It is a very worrying time and you will need all the family and friends support you can get. It is good she is going out with friends tonight and she should continue to do so. You should also seek support as it can be quite an emotional time for a spouse.

    From our Internet research into the latest scientific papers on Breast Cancers, there are lots of different types, so you can not get a good read across from one person's treatment to another's.

    I would advise to get the cancer DNA tested. This is likely to help with diagnosis and getting the right treatment. Some breast cancers are slow and easily treated, others are faster and more malign.

    All the best and good luck to you and your wife.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
    Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
    Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
    Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
    I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
    I dunno what the fuck to do next.

    Very sorry to hear that, best wishes to you and your family and hope your wife makes a full recovery.
  • Cheers, all.
    I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
    I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
    Reality can wait a little longer.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:
    Is this the same Canada that will not rollover the deal that the UK and Canada have through EU membership? I thought Brexiteers said it would be easy to transfer current trading relations with friendly countries on a like for like basis. Another, naive and crass act of stupidity that Brexiteers have inflicted on unsuspecting people....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flanner said:

    Marx said:

    I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.

    I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.

    He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.

    I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.

    Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.

    Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.
    Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.

    All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.
    Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographic
    In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....
    Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party voters
    Dream on!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flanner said:

    Marx said:

    I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.

    I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.

    He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.

    I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.

    Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.

    Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.
    Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.

    All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.
    Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographic
    In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....
    Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party voters
    Dream on!
    until the headbangers fail to get their unicorns and then start turning on another Tory leader.... but this one will be a delight to see.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    @twistedfirestopper3 that sucks, hoping for good news for you and your wife!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Scott_P said:
    I noticed in the last few weeks he said he is going to contest the next GE, presumably as an independent. I am sure the payment that defeated MPs get is nothing to do with it? On the same level would he vote no confidence in a BJ Government as it would probably mean an early GE and that means redundancy...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    @twistedfirestopper3

    So sorry to hear that news. My thoughts are with you and your wife.

    My very best wishes to you both.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201


    2) No chance too much risk he would lose and it would split the Torys again.

    Why would losing split the Tories? We know which side the Tories would be on: The defeated Leave side. They'd be united behind their defeated Leaver leader.

    Did losing IndyRef split the SNP?
    Because not all Torys would be on the leave side. Osborne would pile in, etc blue on blue all over again and as you say if Boris lost then he would have to resign. So he will not do it.
  • GazGaz Posts: 45
    spudgfsh said:
    It requires a conviction of some kind does it not?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    Have just read the Jared O'Mara tweets. Some wee came out... *giggles*
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Because not all Torys would be on the leave side. Osborne would pile in, etc blue on blue all over again and as you say if Boris lost then he would have to resign. So he will not do it.

    There would be Tories in both sides on the referendum but Labour would have that too. Once it's over the result is clear, there's no disagreement over what to do next, and the leadership is on the same side as the membership, which is as united as they can hope to get.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.

    It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
    Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
    Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
    Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
    I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
    I dunno what the fuck to do next.

    Very sorry to hear that all best wishes for a full recovery.
  • That guy has been playing classics all night. It was the wombles theme earlier, just as Heseltine was getting going.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.

    It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!

    You've got to hand to them it's placed perfectly so pretty much every news channel in the area has it on. BBC, C4, Sky, CNN (I've not tried any others but I assume the same). it's the least annoying protest there's been there (better than the stop brexit guy).
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Because not all Torys would be on the leave side. Osborne would pile in, etc blue on blue all over again and as you say if Boris lost then he would have to resign. So he will not do it.

    There would be Tories in both sides on the referendum but Labour would have that too. Once it's over the result is clear, there's no disagreement over what to do next, and the leadership is on the same side as the membership, which is as united as they can hope to get.
    Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
    Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
    Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
    Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
    I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
    I dunno what the fuck to do next.

    So sorry to hear that. You have my very best wishes for the finest outcome. You know, the ones I keep for special occasions, on top of the wardrobe.....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited July 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.

    It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!

    You've got to hand to them it's placed perfectly so pretty much every news channel in the area has it on. BBC, C4, Sky, CNN (I've not tried any others but I assume the same). it's the least annoying protest there's been there (better than the stop brexit guy).
    I don't like the stop Brexit guy even though I think Brexit should be stopped. It is just unpleasant the way he shouts it out and actually it activates a base fear in me. My reaction would be to walk/run away from someone like that and I sometimes turn the TV sound down or change channel. When he used to strategically position himself with a placard that was fine but the shouting I cannot tolerate....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Gaz said:

    spudgfsh said:
    It requires a conviction of some kind does it not?
    Yes. Although I think if the MP is suspended by the House for long enough that would also count. O'Mara is a good example of why extending the recall provisions would be a good idea.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited July 2019

    Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.

    As opposed to now, when the *current* chancellor is going at the incoming Prime Minister, and nobody's sure whether he's lose a Vote of Confidence because members of his own party vote against him...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Jared O’Mara is the second worst Jared ever, after that character in the terminally unfunny Radio 4 comedy “Party” with the annoying voice.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Gaz said:

    spudgfsh said:
    It requires a conviction of some kind does it not?
    Yes. Although I think if the MP is suspended by the House for long enough that would also count. O'Mara is a good example of why extending the recall provisions would be a good idea.
    Maybe MPs should have to turn up for a given percentage of time coupled with frequency. Exemption could be made for Ministers etc. I think local Cllrs have to show commitment and if they fail to do so they are ousted and a by-election takes place. A similar system should take place for MPs unless they are ill, although O'Mara has IIRC had health issues. Difficult one...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Cheers, all.
    I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
    I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
    Reality can wait a little longer.

    Shit news fire stopper.

    Best wishes to you and your family
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    HYUFD said:
    What has Boris ever got done?

    He campaigned for Leave but what has he ever been instrumental in changing something other than keeping that woman in an Iranian jail for a longer period than was initially the case!
    His track record is spotty, and that's being generous. Politicians kissing arse is the norm, but still repulsive. I hope May is more honest tomorrow about Britain Trump.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    MikeL said:

    One feature of PB is how predictions are sprayed around and when they don't happen we get silence as if the prediction had never been made.

    Today is a classic example - anyone wanted to disrupt Boris's appointment tomorrow they would surely have acted today.

    If you look back to that supposed prediction you will see that I specifically said I didn’t think it would happen:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/24/the-final-step-why-the-leader-of-the-conservative-party-does-not-automatically-become-prime-minister/

    Every year I make predictions for the year ahead and every year I review how I did.

    So I don’t think you’re being very fair, to me at least.
    Then don’t read this post if you are feeling so thin skinned. I think you argued this header confidently and with panache. But it is wrong. It will date horribly. People will keep it and throw it back at you.

    Fact is as some bone pointed out politely below, If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, the same with thatcher, wasn’t supposed to be there for ten years at the start, Thatcherism and the iron maiden moniker all came later, truth is Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen.

    Boris is different than that as i think he does look set to be there for at least ten years, now he’s the king of the brexit plurality. The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited and will remain in power for the next ten years at least.

    Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left have not learnt any lessons, Libdem bollocks to brexit best deal is current deal is laughable, what Cameron brought back addresses the concerns of the leave voters more than current deal, and without winning them over you lose and go on losing, and Labour dont have the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters either.

    The header is wrong because winning is not about majority’s but pluralities. Boris doesn’t need a majority anywhere, he merely needs to surf the plurality to two landslides against divided opposition the same way Thatcher did.
    And wrong because EU doesn’t cave to Boris, they cave to their own wish to grant a brexit deal to avoid no deal brexit
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.

    As opposed to now, when the *current* chancellor is going at the incoming Prime Minister, and nobody's sure whether he's lose a Vote of Confidence because members of his own party vote against him...
    He will not be Chancellor tomorrow, so it will be backbench MP. The first objective Boris needs is a united, non rebellious cabinet, because the shambles May has allowed over the last 2 years has done her all the damage. No referendum, Boris can enforce to a degree cabinet responsibility, look at Rudd. Call a referendum all hell gets let loose again.

    So in simple terms keep it in Cabinet he has a measure of control, call a referendum he has none.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Nope the Labour MPs will keep their heads down, basically like last time. But simply not one front bench Labour MP or even a party heavy weight will come out for leave, so the press would have another field day at the Torys expense as heavyweights and front benchers go hammer and tongs at each other.

    As opposed to now, when the *current* chancellor is going at the incoming Prime Minister, and nobody's sure whether he's lose a Vote of Confidence because members of his own party vote against him...
    He will not be Chancellor tomorrow, so it will be backbench MP. The first objective Boris needs is a united, non rebellious cabinet, because the shambles May has allowed over the last 2 years has done her all the damage. No referendum, Boris can enforce to a degree cabinet responsibility, look at Rudd. Call a referendum all hell gets let loose again.

    So in simple terms keep it in Cabinet he has a measure of control, call a referendum he has none.
    It is a Catch 22. He can't have a cabinet full of full on Brexiters because they won't be able to deliver full on Brexit. They might have half a chance at getting the deal through though and perhaps that is the plan.

    Play all the ERGers for dolts. Which to be fair they all are.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Have you all been to The Comms Guy’s own Twitter (@garetharnolduk). Some pretty gruesome tales on there since he quit on jared’s own feed.

    Oh.. and asking for a job for his boyfriend, who also works/ed for JO’M!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Zephyr said:

    MikeL said:

    One feature of PB is how predictions are sprayed around and when they don't happen we get silence as if the prediction had never been made.

    Today is a classic example - anyone wanted to disrupt Boris's appointment tomorrow they would surely have acted today.

    If you look back to that supposed prediction you will see that I specifically said I didn’t think it would happen:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/24/the-final-step-why-the-leader-of-the-conservative-party-does-not-automatically-become-prime-minister/

    Every year I make predictions for the year ahead and every year I review how I did.

    So I don’t think you’re being very fair, to me at least.
    Then don’t read this post if you are feeling so thin skinned. I think you argued this header confidently and with panache. But it is wrong. It will date horribly. People will keep it and throw it back at you.

    Fact is as some bone pointed out politely below, If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, the same with thatcher, wasn’t supposed to be there for ten years at the start, Thatcherism and the iron maiden moniker all came later, truth is Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen.

    Boris is different than that as i think he does look set to be there for at least ten years, now he’s the king of the brexit plurality. The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited and will remain in power for the next ten years at least.

    Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left have not learnt any lessons, Libdem bollocks to brexit best deal is current deal is laughable, what Cameron brought back addresses the concerns of the leave voters more than current deal, and without winning them over you lose and go on losing, and Labour dont have the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters either.

    The header is wrong because winning is not about majority’s but pluralities. Boris doesn’t need a majority anywhere, he merely needs to surf the plurality to two landslides against divided opposition the same way Thatcher did.
    And wrong because EU doesn’t cave to Boris, they cave to their own wish to grant a brexit deal to avoid no deal brexit
    If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    So........I guess the political state of the country is fairly important, but sometimes, life gets in the way.
    Early May of this year, my wife, out of the blue, routine mammogram, gets diagnosed with breast cancer. Prognosis quite good, caught it early blah,blah,blah.
    Early June, mastectomy, nipple removal, immediate implant, consultant confident everything fine and dandy, probably job done. Black humour of friends at work keeping me going saying result, look on the bright side, wife gets a boob job, mortgage paid off, happy days.
    Yesterday, result of lymph node samples. Not so good -Lymph nodes showing signs of cancer, consultant not so chipper. CT scan tomorrow, consultant wants to bring "other oncologists on board." More surgery sheduled for early August. Now talk of extended chemo/radio therapy.
    I'm sitting here, in my back garden, beer in hand, wife out for a meal with friends, she's trying to keep life normal. Kids all finished Uni, off to various continents to explore the world, all thinking Mum has had a close brush with cancer, but on the up.
    I dunno what the fuck to do next.

    So sorry to hear that. You have my very best wishes for the finest outcome. You know, the ones I keep for special occasions, on top of the wardrobe.....
    Ditto

    My late wife had breast cancer and had a mastectomy, but she did NOT die from it. Amazing advances are being made.

    The best advice I can give to TTFS is give his wife 100% support (which I know he will) but it bears restating. A cuddle thro the difficult times is invaluable/priceless
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Scott_P said:
    That doesn't sound like Farage himself is all that convinced by it!

    Farage won't want to roll over that easy, not so long ago he was entertaining the prospect of being PM himself, and if Boris doesn't deliver by the 31st he will fancy his chances in the ensuing election.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Dadge said:

    Zephyr said:

    MikeL said:

    One feature of PB is how predictions are sprayed around and when they don't happen we get silence as if the prediction had never been made.

    Today is a classic example - anyone wanted to disrupt Boris's appointment tomorrow they would surely have acted today.

    If you look back to that supposed prediction you will see that I specifically said I didn’t think it would happen:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/24/the-final-step-why-the-leader-of-the-conservative-party-does-not-automatically-become-prime-minister/

    Every year I make predictions for the year ahead and every year I review how I did.

    So I don’t think you’re being very fair, to me at least.
    Then don’t read this post if you are feeling so thin skinned. I think you argued this header confidently and with panache. But it is wrong. It will date horribly. People will keep it and throw it back at you.

    Fact is as some bone pointed out politely below, If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, the same with thatcher, wasn’t supposed to be there for ten years at the start, Thatcherism and the iron maiden moniker all came later, truth is Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen.

    Boris is different than that as i think he does look set to be there for at least ten years, now he’s the king of the brexit plurality. The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited and will remain in power for the next ten years at least.

    Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left have not learnt any lessons, Libdem bollocks to brexit best deal is current deal is laughable, what Cameron brought back addresses the concerns of the leave voters more than current deal, and without winning them over you lose and go on losing, and Labour dont have the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters either.

    The header is wrong because winning is not about majority’s but pluralities. Boris doesn’t need a majority anywhere, he merely needs to surf the plurality to two landslides against divided opposition the same way Thatcher did.
    And wrong because EU doesn’t cave to Boris, they cave to their own wish to grant a brexit deal to avoid no deal brexit
    If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.
    I’m keeping your post.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Dadge said:


    If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.

    If BJ is still PM on 1/1/2020 I will buy the first PBer to meet me a curly-wurly...
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    spudgfsh said:

    The Sky news guys just introduced a "Who is Boris" puff piece whilst a protestor near the presenter played the Imperial March on a glockenspiel. Glorious.

    It's probably the least threatening instrument for that tune as well!

    You've got to hand to them it's placed perfectly so pretty much every news channel in the area has it on. BBC, C4, Sky, CNN (I've not tried any others but I assume the same). it's the least annoying protest there's been there (better than the stop brexit guy).
    I don't like the stop Brexit guy even though I think Brexit should be stopped. It is just unpleasant the way he shouts it out and actually it activates a base fear in me. My reaction would be to walk/run away from someone like that and I sometimes turn the TV sound down or change channel. When he used to strategically position himself with a placard that was fine but the shouting I cannot tolerate....
    Stooooooooooooooooooop brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrexiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    spudgfsh said:

    Dadge said:


    If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.

    If BJ is still PM on 1/1/2020 I will buy the first PBer to meet me a curly-wurly...
    Are you sure you will be able to get one in 2020 Best buy now just in case ;)
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    spudgfsh said:

    Dadge said:


    If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.

    If BJ is still PM on 1/1/2020 I will buy the first PBer to meet me a curly-wurly...
    Are you sure you will be able to get one in 2020 Best buy now just in case ;)
    Don't worry I've been stockpiling since 2002... Some of the vintage ones are ace!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    YouGov/The Times poll of Labour Party members:

    81% support referendum on Irish reunification

    49% support Scottish independence

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi390k7ca3/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_ww.pdf
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Sad news FireStopper.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flanner said:

    Marx said:

    I think it is quite cavalier to rule Boris Johnson out before he even takes office.

    I don’t like the man, I wish we were not in this situation, but he has factors on his side that could assist him.

    He connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t. He has Jeremy Corbyn as an opponent. He could claw back Brexit party votes.

    I’m not saying any of this will be easy or even likely, but there is a chance we have an election this year and Boris wins it. I think that has to be a possibility.

    Let us see him bed in, complete his first month or so in office and let’s see where we are.

    Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.
    Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.

    All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.
    Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographic
    In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....
    Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party voters
    I was there in the eighties, and Thatcher and Thatcherism was clearly a minority position. As a black mirror imagine Trump winning twenty 20 from a clear minority position, as Cortez and Harris both stand against him and divide up the majority vote amongst themselves with manifestos similar to each other and drastically different to trumps. That’s the british elections of 83, 87, 2020 and 2025.

    When history gets written winners tend to come out better than they were
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    spudgfsh said:

    Dadge said:


    If BJ is still PM in 2029 I'll give you my house.

    If BJ is still PM on 1/1/2020 I will buy the first PBer to meet me a curly-wurly...
    Are you sure you will be able to get one in 2020 Best buy now just in case ;)
    Aren’t they made in Poland?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    edited July 2019

    Scott_P said:
    That doesn't sound like Farage himself is all that convinced by it!

    Farage won't want to roll over that easy, not so long ago he was entertaining the prospect of being PM himself, and if Boris doesn't deliver by the 31st he will fancy his chances in the ensuing election.
    Nigel is probably embarrassed that his big mate Donald is too 'closeted' to realize that Nigel and Boris are hated enemies bent on each other's destruction. And if Nigel did tell Donald that he's clearly forgotten or wasn't listening in the first place.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DUP to demand more cash for propping up Tories 'in coming weeks' in early warning to Boris Johnson
    Arlene Foster tells incoming prime minister the £1bn-plus confidence and supply agreement must be renewed ‘over the coming weeks’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dup-boris-tories-money-confidence-supply-agreement-billion-a9017681.html
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    And if Nigel did tell Donald that he's clearly forgotten or wasn't listening in the first place.

    Trump was completely disinterested in what a Nadia Murad, a woman whose family have been murdered and is a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, was saying to him the other day. Unless Farage mentions something that might enrich Trump I expect it goes straight in one ear and out the other.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    NEW THREAD
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    A night of thunderstorms looms. They are already underway along the Normandy coast and will be heading north overnight.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    YouGov/The Times poll of Labour Party members:

    81% support referendum on Irish reunification

    49% support Scottish independence

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi390k7ca3/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_ww.pdf

    39% support Independence with 20% saying Don't Know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flanner said:

    Marx said:


    Sorry, hate to remind you but many women, other than his wives have seen him in bed, and he has no idea how many children he has fathered.

    Johnson certainly "connects with voters in a way a lot of Tories don’t". He turns a greater proportion of non-Tories away than any PM since Thatcher - who had the country's economic turnaround to show for the people she upset.

    All Johnson can show is a series of aborted projects and a long line of betrayed associates.
    Except Thatcher also motivated Tories like no other and appealed to working class strives and one 3 elections, Boris appeals to a similar demographic
    In two of those elections she had a split opposition. She also had a serious foreign policy crisis in the Falklands war that assisted her. A couple of years into the 1979 - 1983 Government she appeared vulnerable politically and had political luck not aligned to help her as it did the Tories might have ditched her in 1983 or 1984. Leadership elections were the preserve of MPs and if they thought they would lose their seats she would have been out. The Tories are not afraid of ousting leaders before Thatcher, look at Heath in 1975....
    Remsiners are now split between Swinson LDs and Corbyn Labour while Boris will win back many Brexit Party voters
    I was there in the eighties, and Thatcher and Thatcherism was clearly a minority position. As a black mirror imagine Trump winning twenty 20 from a clear minority position, as Cortez and Harris both stand against him and divide up the majority vote amongst themselves with manifestos similar to each other and drastically different to trumps. That’s the british elections of 83, 87, 2020 and 2025.

    When history gets written winners tend to come out better than they were
    The comparison between the 80s and now is simplistic, but what you posit is not impossible.
    It is, however, somewhat unlikely.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    justin124 said:

    YouGov/The Times poll of Labour Party members:

    81% support referendum on Irish reunification

    49% support Scottish independence

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi390k7ca3/TheTimes_190719_LabourMemberResults_ww.pdf

    39% support Independence with 20% saying Don't Know.
    Customary to exclude dk: standard presentation of poll findings.

    The details are in the linked table.
  • MarxMarx Posts: 28
    A pigeon farts in Trafalgar Square, and Sturgeon says because it wasn't a s**t it was an insult against Scotland and Scotland will be Free after iRef2
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    That guy has been playing classics all night. It was the wombles theme earlier, just as Heseltine was getting going.

    The Wombles theme - "remember you're a womble bla bla" is utter tat but Wombling Merry Christmas - "all day long we will be wombelling in the sun etc" - is in a different league entirely. It's a much underrated song.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679

    NEW THREAD

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Year of three Prime Ministers and, as it happens, a day of three threads; this one has now resigned.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Cheers, all.
    I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
    I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
    Reality can wait a little longer.

    Best wishes, cancer is truly awful :E
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Cheers, all.
    I guess I'm just wallowing in self pity, but it's a place that feels comfortable at this exact moment in time.
    I'm minded to keep schtumm as far as the lads are concerned. They are all off this week to explore the world and start work. I reckon I'll let them enjoy themselves. They know Mum "has cancer" She'll be undergoing treatment while they are off living their lives. Not a lot will change in 4 or 6 weeks.
    Reality can wait a little longer.

    Just checked in and saw your news.

    The Glenfield breast unit is excellent. I know them reasonably well and have faith in them. They get good results.

    I have a cousin in a similar position. Aged 44 she found a lump and within weeks it was had spread. Next month we are celebrating her 50th birthday and she is to all appearances physically and mentally well. Her chemo is ongoing, but she never found it too gruelling and just gets on with it. She is fairly meticulous about it.

    One thing she swears by is a dairy and soya free diet. This is not just voodoo, but based upon oestrogens, which are stimulators for breast cancer. By avoiding these she has done far better than her original prognosis suggested. Mrs TFS may want to consider this.

    Health is the great leveller, and to be prized and appreciated. Best wishes.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Scott_P said:
    Whatever ones’ views on Boris, Soames is pompous and unpleasant. Rather like his father, in fact....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Zephyr said:

    I was there in the eighties, and Thatcher and Thatcherism was clearly a minority position. As a black mirror imagine Trump winning twenty 20 from a clear minority position, as Cortez and Harris both stand against him and divide up the majority vote amongst themselves with manifestos similar to each other and drastically different to trumps. That’s the british elections of 83, 87, 2020 and 2025.

    When history gets written winners tend to come out better than they were

    Great points. But there is something important you may be missing.

    Remainers are - on balance and on the whole - just that little bit more intelligent than Leavers. I think this is generally accepted.

    So if the next election revolves around tactical voting it is more likely to work to the advantage of Labour and Lib Dem than Con and BP.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Nigelb said:

    @twistedfirestopper3 that is terrible. Please accept my best wishes, too.

    Ask about immunotherapy; if appropriate, then can be greatly preferable to chemo.
    https://www.cancerresearch.org/immunotherapy/cancer-types/breast-cancer

    You must do what you think best, but FWIW I agree with the others that openness is best.

    Really sorry to hear this.

    Obviously 'helpful' advice is probably not what you, or your wife most wants at this stage, but as, someone has already made a suggestion, I'll add, please explore complementary aspects of treatment like diet.

    Cancer is not a natural state for the body, and the physiology of a cancer is different to that of a human. Cancers metabolise glucose (they live on sugar) whereas our bodies can live by burning fat. Many cancer patients therefore choose a ketogenic diet, minimising sugars and carbs, effectively depriving their cancer of its food source.

    Doctors are not trained in nutrition, and in my (second hand) experience, oncologists will often ignore dietary and other lifestyle aspects. I think this is unwise. Ask them the tough, complex questions and don't accept glib answers.

    I truly believe that your wife can be fully restored to health. Wish you all the best.



  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    Apparently I've sacked Penny Morduant, reappointed Theresa Villiers (insane) and reinstated Gavin Williamson (who by all accounts was a twat as a pottery seller).
    Fucking unbelievable.
This discussion has been closed.