politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal
Comments
-
If it were held tomorrow, yes. But a lot can happen in a few months.eek said:
It's obvious that the party offers for the next election will be:-rkrkrk said:
It would have been a logical try.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. rkrkrk, I'm still surprised May didn't add the threat of a second referendum (her deal versus remain) to one of her repeat tries to get her deal through the Commons.
But I don't think either Boris or Hunt can possibly advocate ref 2 now.
And they would go into ant future GE promising to get Brexit done, not offering a 2nd referendum.
Brexit - Leave tomorrow
Tories - Leave (come what may) but slightly more sanely than Brexit with luck
Labour - second ref
LD / Green - revoke and Remain0 -
I’m not sure why people think that Tory and TBP votes are interchangeable or why they think they can have an electoral pact without any remaining decent tories leaving en mass horrified at getting into bed with Farage1
-
You might be right. I do wonder whether LDems/Greens will manage to pull off the switch to just being revoke. Presumably the Lib Dems would accept a second ref, rather than insisting on revoke as their price for support.eek said:
It's obvious that the party offers for the next election will be:-rkrkrk said:
It would have been a logical try.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. rkrkrk, I'm still surprised May didn't add the threat of a second referendum (her deal versus remain) to one of her repeat tries to get her deal through the Commons.
But I don't think either Boris or Hunt can possibly advocate ref 2 now.
And they would go into ant future GE promising to get Brexit done, not offering a 2nd referendum.
Brexit - Leave tomorrow
Tories - Leave (come what may) but slightly more sanely than Brexit with luck
Labour - second ref
LD / Green - revoke and Remain0 -
Exactly. The Brexit Party/Conservative Party coalition idea is actually more repelling to me than its individual component parts. I don't like either much, but the lowest common denominator of the two really does sound like the stuff of nightmares.nichomar said:I’m not sure why people think that Tory and TBP votes are interchangeable or why they think they can have an electoral pact without any remaining decent tories leaving en mass horrified at getting into bed with Farage
0 -
Boris will lose women voters, nothing to do with Brexit, it's his revolting personality. There are not many women on here I guess, Ms. Cyclefree and Anne are the only ones that come immediately to mind. The rest of us are men AFAIK.Mexicanpete said:
I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, thought Theresa May was doing her best but was brought down by scheming men. As for Boris, "how on earth couldn't anyone think a man who treats women in that way could be suitable as PM? He disgusts me, even Corbyn would be better."
I very much doubt my wife is alone in holding that view.0 -
For me it's not his alley cat antics that do for Boris, it's his willingness to obviously promise everything to everyone rather than saying No to people..anothernick said:
Boris will lose women voters, nothing to do with Brexit, it's his revolting personality. There are not many women on here I guess, Ms. Cyclefree and Anne are the only ones that come immediately to mind. The rest of us are men AFAIK.Mexicanpete said:
I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, thought Theresa May was doing her best but was brought down by scheming men. As for Boris, "how on earth couldn't anyone think a man who treats women in that way could be suitable as PM? He disgusts me, even Corbyn would be better."
I very much doubt my wife is alone in holding that view.0 -
I'm actually a time traveller who has whizzed back to your era for a few months. I am doing research for my PhD thesis on that very subject. Working title - "What do you expect, look at the wankers she had to work with."anothernick said:
Boris will lose women voters, nothing to do with Brexit, it's his revolting personality. There are not many women on here I guess, Ms. Cyclefree and Anne are the only ones that come immediately to mind. The rest of us are men AFAIK.Mexicanpete said:
I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, thought Theresa May was doing her best but was brought down by scheming men. As for Boris, "how on earth couldn't anyone think a man who treats women in that way could be suitable as PM? He disgusts me, even Corbyn would be better."
I very much doubt my wife is alone in holding that view.0 -
The 34% of Leavers would certainly not stay loyal to a No Brexit partywilliamglenn said:
You think the 18% of Remainers would stay loyal to a No Deal party?HYUFD said:
34% of Leave voters are voting Tory but only 18% of Remain voters are voting Tory and 30% of 2017 Tories now back the Brexit Party with Yougov but only 7% of 2017 Tories are voting LD.williamglenn said:
The Tory vote is still being propped up by inertia. If you really want to blow up your coalition, go for no deal.HYUFD said:
Tories plus Brexit Party on 44% in the latest Yougov, even 1% higher than Thatcher got in 1983 and 17% more than Foot's Labour Party gotwilliamglenn said:HYUFD’s Tories/the Brexit Party are the heirs to Michael Foot’s national populism.
The only thing that would blow up the Tories coalition is refusing to deliver Brexit
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/18/voting-intention-con-25-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-19-0 -
aw HYUFD had responded with some surface level statistics.
In fairness to the wankers, May was the one who decided to go all in with 2-7 off-suit. Though I suppose stupidity ranks higher than tawdry, flag-waving awfulness at least.Recidivist said:
I'm actually a time traveller who has whizzed back to your era for a few months. I am doing research for my PhD thesis on that very subject. Working title - "What do you expect, look at the wankers she had to work with."anothernick said:
Boris will lose women voters, nothing to do with Brexit, it's his revolting personality. There are not many women on here I guess, Ms. Cyclefree and Anne are the only ones that come immediately to mind. The rest of us are men AFAIK.Mexicanpete said:
I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, thought Theresa May was doing her best but was brought down by scheming men. As for Boris, "how on earth couldn't anyone think a man who treats women in that way could be suitable as PM? He disgusts me, even Corbyn would be better."
I very much doubt my wife is alone in holding that view.0 -
Certainly but I think the electoral downside of Boris' repellent personality is being underestimated by his supporters on here, partly because they are all men.eek said:
For me it's not his alley cat antics that do for Boris, it's his willingness to obviously promise everything to everyone rather than saying No to people..anothernick said:
Boris will lose women voters, nothing to do with Brexit, it's his revolting personality. There are not many women on here I guess, Ms. Cyclefree and Anne are the only ones that come immediately to mind. The rest of us are men AFAIK.Mexicanpete said:
I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, thought Theresa May was doing her best but was brought down by scheming men. As for Boris, "how on earth couldn't anyone think a man who treats women in that way could be suitable as PM? He disgusts me, even Corbyn would be better."
I very much doubt my wife is alone in holding that view.0 -
Hmmm...
https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."
In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."
"In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."0 -
The world we now live in....
https://slate.com/culture/2019/07/cats-musical-movie-porn-furries.html
...With furries openly rejecting the character, is anyone seeking out Cats-related porn, even out of mortified curiosity? Apparently not. A representative for YouPorn told Slate there has been no increase in searches for the word cats or for any of the actors’ names since the trailer dropped on Thursday. On the one hand, what a relief. On the other, consider that searches for toad increased by 310 percent after Stormy Daniels compared Donald Trump’s penis to a Nintendo character. People will search for porn of anything, and it doesn’t really bode well for Cats if even people whose kink is dressing up as animals are creeped out...0 -
I was still 34 in 2010.alex. said:
I’ve definitely voted Tory on occasion when I was below 35 and post 1983.HYUFD said:
Wrong, the Tories have not won voters under 35 since 1983, they have won most seats in 5 general elections since then.OnboardG1 said:
The demographics don't really agree with you there. If the Tories can't win any voters under 40 then their coalition will literally die.HYUFD said:
The Labour Party however may well be finished if it sticks with Corbyn and Corbynism with the LDs replacing it
The only time Labour has won the over 65 vote was 19970
