politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster on
One Saturday a month we seem to have a glut of polls with ComRes for the Indy on Sun/ S Mirror, Opinium for the Observer and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times.
Comments
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Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?0
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Right call for a red, with what we're learning about concussions shots to the head should and re being clamped down on.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
(In relation to the deserved raving about the English team, they do look very good and play nice expansive rugby. As I said earlier, their second rows deserve the highest praise).
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@Stark_Dawning asking Mir Union Divvie on the past thread: Why did you 'tinyurl' the address by the way? It wasn't to mask the fact it's the website of Eric Joyce, I trust."
From the last thread, but an important point: I can't answer for UD, but I will say that I have been impressed by the writings of Mr Joyce on current Scottish affairs. Irrespective, or perhaps because, of his axe to grind with the local Labour party in Falkirk, his comments on their very nearly disastrous bungling of their selection campaign, and the damage it almost did to Scotland's economy, were informative and useful contributions to current politics.0 -
It is what Stuart Hogg deserves and a long term ban.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
Can anyone confirm that what the ref did was legit?
i.e. Give a yellow card, then see the replay on the big screen and upgrade it to a red card?0 -
Liverpool and England playing glorious entertaining stuff.corporeal said:
Right call for a red, with what we're learning about concussions shots to the head should and re being clamped down on.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
(In relation to the deserved raving about the English team, they do look very good and play nice expansive rugby. As I said earlier, their second rows deserve the highest praise).
If only our football team and cricket team could do the same.0 -
On topic, from John Rentoul's blog
Also, we have asked a rare question about how people intend to vote in the European Parliament elections in May, and the results are rather different from how people say they will vote in the general election.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/03/15/poll-alert-41/0 -
Play hadn't restarted and he was sin binned anyway, so probably fine. Definite red card. Silly boy. Wales should get 50+ points now. Last 20 minutes will be horrible for the Scots.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is what Stuart Hogg deserves and a long term ban.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
Can anyone confirm that what the ref did was legit?
i.e. Give a yellow card, then see the replay on the big screen and upgrade it to a red card?
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Unless Liverpool have a rugby team they can't be playing gloriously or entertainingly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liverpool and England playing glorious entertaining stuff.corporeal said:
Right call for a red, with what we're learning about concussions shots to the head should and re being clamped down on.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
(In relation to the deserved raving about the English team, they do look very good and play nice expansive rugby. As I said earlier, their second rows deserve the highest praise).
If only our football team and cricket team could do the same.
Twitter afire with that question about the ref. Since he did it I assume he's allowed to...0 -
Commentators seem happy with the decision. Half time Wales 27-3 up. Disallowed try as well.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is what Stuart Hogg deserves and a long term ban.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
Can anyone confirm that what the ref did was legit?
i.e. Give a yellow card, then see the replay on the big screen and upgrade it to a red card?0 -
A lot of people saying Wales have finally turned up, I think the game has more to do with only 14 Scots turning up.0
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Southam/Corporeal
Thanks, it was a red card - So the ref got it right in the end.0 -
Oh I don't know.SeanT said:That Scotland red card has taken any excitement out of a match, which, as a dead rubber, already had zero excitement levels. So this game is now in negative excitement territory.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.0 -
After Hogg's murderous cheap shot, Scotland deserve to be humiliated.Wales are playing some fantastic stuff.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh I don't know.SeanT said:That Scotland red card has taken any excitement out of a match, which, as a dead rubber, already had zero excitement levels. So this game is now in negative excitement territory.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.
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This could be a cricket score, Scotland must be hoping it is an England cricket score.0
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Bring back Andy Robinson?0
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The first tier right now is totally southern hemisphere. Second tier is the top 6 Nations. Scotland are now firmly in the 3rd tier with Italy.SeanT said:
Scottish rugby has been so poor for so many years, I no longer get any buzz from Jockbashing. In fact, quite seriously, I'd like them to improve. Rugby has a limited number of top class sides, and needs more. Arguably Scotland have fallen out of the first tier, and Italy are also sliding back.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh I don't know.SeanT said:That Scotland red card has taken any excitement out of a match, which, as a dead rubber, already had zero excitement levels. So this game is now in negative excitement territory.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.
Not good for the game.
They have a lot of structural problems in Scottish rugby. Tbh the sport would benefit (esp in Scotland) by moving summer-wards. But there are of course difficulties with that (not least the rugby league is already there).0 -
They've already got a new coach coming in (Cotter) after this competition. Scott Johnson's only caretaking (and done a poor job of it).TheScreamingEagles said:Bring back Andy Robinson?
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What a try.corporeal said:
They've already got a new coach coming in (Cotter) after this competition. Scott Johnson's only caretaking (and done a poor job of it).TheScreamingEagles said:Bring back Andy Robinson?
I'm really proud of the fact that England have never had a Johnny Foreigner as our coach.0 -
The soul of Scottish rugby is in the Borders. That's where any revival has to begin. It's not impossible that with resources and structure talented players could come through.corporeal said:
The first tier right now is uniquely southern hemisphere. Second tier is the top 6 Nations. Scotland are now firmly in the 3rd tier with Italy.SeanT said:
Scottish rugby has been so poor for so many years, I no longer get any buzz from Jockbashing. In fact, quite seriously, I'd like them to improve. Rugby has a limited number of top class sides, and needs more. Arguably Scotland have fallen out of the first tier, and Italy are also sliding back.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh I don't know.SeanT said:That Scotland red card has taken any excitement out of a match, which, as a dead rubber, already had zero excitement levels. So this game is now in negative excitement territory.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.
Not good for the game.
They have a lot of structural problems in Scottish rugby. Tbh the sport would benefit (esp in Scotland) by moving summer-wards. But there are of course difficulties with that (not least the rugby league is already there).
Disagree about the southern hemisphere btw. I'd put NZ and SA up top with England third, above Australia. And with a home World Cup England could certainly make the final at least.
Wales to score 60?
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Eesh, if Wales have decided to run it from their own 22 then it's going to get brutal.0
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If the Battle of Zama was a rugby match, it would look like this.
Wales = Rome, Scotland = Carthage0 -
What's the record 5/6 Nations score? Might be under threat if Wales keep their focus.0
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I could certainly see a case for putting Australia on a level with England, but it'd be by dropping them down to the 2nd tier and leaving NZ and SA as a two team top tier.SouthamObserver said:
The soul of Scottish rugby is in the Borders. That's where any revival has to begin. It's not impossible that with resources and structure talented players could come through.corporeal said:
The first tier right now is uniquely southern hemisphere. Second tier is the top 6 Nations. Scotland are now firmly in the 3rd tier with Italy.SeanT said:
Scottish rugby has been so poor for so many years, I no longer get any buzz from Jockbashing. In fact, quite seriously, I'd like them to improve. Rugby has a limited number of top class sides, and needs more. Arguably Scotland have fallen out of the first tier, and Italy are also sliding back.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh I don't know.SeanT said:That Scotland red card has taken any excitement out of a match, which, as a dead rubber, already had zero excitement levels. So this game is now in negative excitement territory.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.
Not good for the game.
They have a lot of structural problems in Scottish rugby. Tbh the sport would benefit (esp in Scotland) by moving summer-wards. But there are of course difficulties with that (not least the rugby league is already there).
Disagree about the southern hemisphere btw. I'd put NZ and SA up top with England third, above Australia. And with a home World Cup England could certainly make the final at least.
Wales to score 60?
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England 6/1 and Wales 14/1 to win the World Cup next year.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner0 -
Interesting comment on PPRuNe:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-201.html
"Many posts will be being deleted because they are plain stupid, or because the subject is security sensitive.
As someone who is well involved on this industry, I am already extremely nervous at the amount of detailed system/procedural information already discussed here. It just doesn't help future airline security...
I am just as keen as anyone else to see this queer mystery unravelled, but I am not about to share my professional knowledge. Others need to think before posting."0 -
Tbh I'd jump on England now, not least in the expectation of a lot of patriotic money coming in to shorten their odds later.TheScreamingEagles said:England 6/1 and Wales 14/1 to win the World Cup next year.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner0 -
Two of the graphics in the article are wrong.
Last week's Sunday Times YouGov was actually 32/39/10/14
The last Opinium was actually 29/34/10/190 -
I see both as very good trading bets.corporeal said:
Tbh I'd jump on England now, not least in the expectation of a lot of patriotic money coming in to shorten their odds later.TheScreamingEagles said:England 6/1 and Wales 14/1 to win the World Cup next year.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner
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And New Zealand are unlikely to be playing ill again (a win's a win of course, but interms of projecting future performance I wouldn't weigh that too heavily in the balance.SeanT said:
Those are pretty good odds on England. 6/1 ? They've beaten every major rugby team in the last two years, apart from the Boks, and came very close to beating them in 2012.TheScreamingEagles said:England 6/1 and Wales 14/1 to win the World Cup next year.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner
And England are at home. Hmm.
I suppose what tells against them is that Group of Death.
6/1 so 15% chance. I'd rate their chances as better than that, but not massively so.0 -
I mean... what has happened to Wales? I heard serious talk a year or so back (from Welshmen admittedly) that Wales were on course to become the greatest side ever to play rugby union. Drivel it would seem, but what brought about such hubris initially?SeanT said:then Wales
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I'd more or less agree, although stick some gaps in there as well.SeanT said:
Yes, I agree, I'd put England just ahead of Oz.SouthamObserver said:
The soul of Scottish rugby is in the Borders. That's where any revival has to begin. It's not impossible that with resources and structure talented players could come through.corporeal said:
The first tier right now is uniquely southern hemisphere. Second tier is the top 6 Nations. Scotland are now firmly in the 3rd tier with Italy.SeanT said:
Scottish rugby has been so poor for so many years, I no longer get any buzz from Jockbashing. In fact, quite seriously, I'd like them to improve. Rugby has a limited number of top class sides, and needs more. Arguably Scotland have fallen out of the first tier, and Italy are also sliding back.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh I don't know.SeanT said:That Scotland red card has taken any excitement out of a match, which, as a dead rubber, already had zero excitement levels. So this game is now in negative excitement territory.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.
Not good for the game.
They have a lot of structural problems in Scottish rugby. Tbh the sport would benefit (esp in Scotland) by moving summer-wards. But there are of course difficulties with that (not least the rugby league is already there).
Disagree about the southern hemisphere btw. I'd put NZ and SA up top with England third, above Australia. And with a home World Cup England could certainly make the final at least.
Wales to score 60?
Here's my ranking. Any of the seven top tier sides could win this World Cup (given that it is in the Northen Hemisphere). In order of likelihood that is NZ, SA, England, Oz, France, then Wales and Ireland equal. You could argue Wales should be above France but Wales have that southern hemisphere hoodoo which always cripples them. France do not.
Scotland and Italy? - no way.
We are of course still two years out, time for Wales to re-find their form and France can get back much closer to their normal level.
I think Ireland might fade a bit before the WC.0 -
Are we allowed to say a Scottish rugby team took to the park and a British rugby team will be leaving it?0
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FPT
"The right wing are convinced it's the path to election victory"tpfkar said:Joining the insomnia brigade as well. Wise article, but I think we all know there's only one answer to the question 'Will the Tories stop obsessing over Europe?'
The right wing are convinced it's the path to election victory, and Ed has smartly poured fuel on that fire this week. David Cameron has long lost control over his party here; I still think his referendum pledge was made out of weakness and he should have faced the critics down, as he's still unable to say what 'renegotiation' is about so the party unity will collapse into infighting when he's forced to reveal his hand.
With the uptick in LD figures this week and a tough defence of my council seat in May, the Tories are very welcome to keep going on about Europe as long as they like.
I don't think anyone has ever been convinced of that. The EU is a killer threat to the nation-state and if you believe the nation-state is the guarantor of pretty much all the things people value - even if most people don't realize it yet - then it's worth doing whatever you can to bring down the EU.
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I think some of it is burnout. Alongside WC and the Welsh dominated Lions tour they've been playing a lot of rugby over a long period. A rest would do them good.Stark_Dawning said:
I mean... what has happened to Wales? I heard serious talk a year or so back (from Welshmen admittedly) that Wales were on course to become the greatest side ever to play rugby union. Drivel it would seem, but what brought about such hubris initially?SeanT said:then Wales
The best ever? Exaggerating a little, but they've been one of the best NH sides over the last couple of decades. And probably should've done a little better than they did.0 -
Did news of the Warburton vs Plaid spat travel outside of Wales at all?Easterross said:Are we allowed to say a Scottish rugby team took to the park and a British rugby team will be leaving it?
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The All Blacks claimed illness beforehand to what? Give them a ready made excuse for losing, give England confidence, forgive me if I'm a little skeptical.SeanT said:
lol. I know England's tonking of the All Blacks irritates the Welsh, as you haven't beaten them since Owyn Glendower was at fly half.corporeal said:
And New Zealand are unlikely to be playing ill again (a win's a win of course, but interms of projecting future performance I wouldn't weigh that too heavily in the balance.SeanT said:
Those are pretty good odds on England. 6/1 ? They've beaten every major rugby team in the last two years, apart from the Boks, and came very close to beating them in 2012.TheScreamingEagles said:England 6/1 and Wales 14/1 to win the World Cup next year.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner
And England are at home. Hmm.
I suppose what tells against them is that Group of Death.
6/1 so 15% chance. I'd rate their chances as better than that, but not massively so.
Here's a thing. I know some Kiwis in London, rich and well connected - and good friends to a lot of the All Blacks players and admin. They socialise with the squad when they are in town.
I had a drink with these guys a few months ago, and they admitted that the illness thing was a load of bollocks, the All Blacks were fine, it was just devious sportsmanship - at which the Blacks are so good (remember they pulled the same stunt before losing the WC in Pretoria).
England smashed a perfectly healthy All Blacks team supposedly at the peak of their powers.0 -
6/1 is very good odds for England.
We've actually got a good draw - I know it looks like the Group of Death but point is that if we win the group we get Scotland in QF and France in SF.
Incidentally has anyone noticed how in almost every single World Cup NZ, SA and Aus all end up in the same half of the draw. It is an astonishing coincidence but it literally happens almost every single time.0 -
Another post on PPRuNE:
"Shackeng
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Wiltshire U.K.
Posts: 7
Quote:
“All right, roger that”
I never heard such a phrase. Where did he get "All right" from? Bizarre.
Agreed, I have been unhappy with the phrases used since they were first reported. Are MAS procedures such that sloppy phraseology would be used? Certainly not with the Big Airline I flew for.
If not, was it the crew trying to indicate a HJ? Or HJacker using the R/T?"
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-201.html0 -
SeanT said:
Retweeted by Andrew Neil
Jan Cienski @jancienski 1h
Ukraine military says it has repelled an attempted Russian incursion near Crimea http://www.mil.gov.ua/index.php?lang=ua&part=news&sub=read&id=33046 … Odds of war getting higher
Still the same I think. I doubt there'll be any deliberate Russki incursions until after the Crimea vote (except for strategy of tension type pretend ones).
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Wasn't on but:
UTTOXETER 4:25
1 Crystal Swing 33/10 -
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Eh? As far as I can see it's happened all of twice?MikeL said:6/1 is very good odds for England.
We've actually got a good draw - I know it looks like the Group of Death but point is that if we win the group we get Scotland in QF and France in SF.
Incidentally has anyone noticed how in almost every single World Cup NZ, SA and Aus all end up in the same half of the draw. It is an astonishing coincidence but it literally happens almost every single time.0 -
Also, any source for your similar claim about the '95 world cup?SeanT said:
You can be forgiven for being Welsh; I have no reason to doubt what these Kiwis told me, and they know the NZ team. They turned a minor bug into a bit of gamesmanship (otherwise why admit it at all?); after they were hammered they later claimed it was practically bubonic plague.corporeal said:
The All Blacks claimed illness beforehand to what? Give them a ready made excuse for losing, give England confidence, forgive me if I'm a little skeptical.SeanT said:
lol. I know England's tonking of the All Blacks irritates the Welsh, as you haven't beaten them since Owyn Glendower was at fly half.corporeal said:
And New Zealand are unlikely to be playing ill again (a win's a win of course, but interms of projecting future performance I wouldn't weigh that too heavily in the balance.SeanT said:
Those are pretty good odds on England. 6/1 ? They've beaten every major rugby team in the last two years, apart from the Boks, and came very close to beating them in 2012.TheScreamingEagles said:England 6/1 and Wales 14/1 to win the World Cup next year.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner
And England are at home. Hmm.
I suppose what tells against them is that Group of Death.
6/1 so 15% chance. I'd rate their chances as better than that, but not massively so.
Here's a thing. I know some Kiwis in London, rich and well connected - and good friends to a lot of the All Blacks players and admin. They socialise with the squad when they are in town.
I had a drink with these guys a few months ago, and they admitted that the illness thing was a load of bollocks, the All Blacks were fine, it was just devious sportsmanship - at which the Blacks are so good (remember they pulled the same stunt before losing the WC in Pretoria).
England smashed a perfectly healthy All Blacks team supposedly at the peak of their powers.
They REALLY don't like losing.
And now, a walk in the sun.
As for why admit it at all? It's the new media, they were never going to be able to keep it secret anyway.
But you've now gone from "perfectly healthy" to well they were ill, but not that badly. If I hang around will it keep going?0 -
Indeed, you should support Spurs then....TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh I don't know.SeanT said:That Scotland red card has taken any excitement out of a match, which, as a dead rubber, already had zero excitement levels. So this game is now in negative excitement territory.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.0 -
Indeed.SeanT said:
Wales can only be taken seriously, as a world class team, when they regularly beat SH sides. Alternatively, they could just beat NZ once, for the first time since the Suez Crisis.corporeal said:
I think some of it is burnout. Alongside WC and the Welsh dominated Lions tour they've been playing a lot of rugby over a long period. A rest would do them good.Stark_Dawning said:
I mean... what has happened to Wales? I heard serious talk a year or so back (from Welshmen admittedly) that Wales were on course to become the greatest side ever to play rugby union. Drivel it would seem, but what brought about such hubris initially?SeanT said:then Wales
The best ever? Exaggerating a little, but they've been one of the best NH sides over the last couple of decades. And probably should've done a little better than they did.
That 3 test series to Australia where naivete cost them multiple times in the final minutes. They should've announced themselves on that series and were good enough to do so. But they didn't quite fulfil their promise.
I wonder what odds on Australia going out of the group of death, might be tempting.
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Sob
I said the other day I usually back the horse based on the name.
Had I have known that Crystal Swing was racing, I'd have been backing that.0 -
Sure. Although frankly I remember other things from Lions tours as well. Ronan O'Gara having his face re-arranged for one, if we're looking to crown the dirtiest in World rugby. (And of course individual players from all over the place).SeanT said:
The All Blacks are the best side in the world, yet they are also the biggest cheats, and perhaps the dirtiest players. Remember the BOD spear tackle?corporeal said:
Also, any source for your similar claim about the '95 world cup?SeanT said:
You can be forgiven for being Welsh; I have no reason to doubt what these Kiwis told me, and they know the NZ team. They turned a minor bug into a bit of gamesmanship (otherwise why admit it at all?); after they were hammered they later claimed it was practically bubonic plague.corporeal said:
The All Blacks claimed illness beforehand to what? Give them a ready made excuse for losing, give England confidence, forgive me if I'm a little skeptical.SeanT said:
lol.corporeal said:SeanT said:
I suppose what tells against them is that Group of Death.TheScreamingEagles said:England 6/1 and Wales 14/1 to win the World Cup next year.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner
England smashed a perfectly healthy All Blacks team supposedly at the peak of their powers.
They REALLY don't like losing.
And now, a walk in the sun.
As for why admit it at all? It's the new media, they were never going to be able to keep it secret anyway.
But you've now gone from "perfectly healthy" to well they were ill, but not that badly. If I hang around will it keep going?
Their whole mindset is victory, and when they lose - especially big matches - they cannot cope. Before they lost the WC in Pretoria they admitted they were a bit ill - nerves? - after they lost they claimed they had been poisoned by a waitress.
Ludicrous. But it's what they do.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/archives/2003/0813/ireland/suzie-never-poisoned-all-blacks-967330627.html
Anyway I doubt we will agree. Let's watch the French beat the Irish. Hopefully.
So now they weren't faking in 1995 either? I mean your link has the South African security saying they were definitely ill, but it was because the players sneaked out for seafood rather than getting it from the hotel.0 -
Eh, I'm rooting for BOD tbh. Genuinely not out of any anti-English feeling (very much with Warburton on that score), but one of the best players I've ever seen, and the finest centre of his era. A grand slam would be a worthy ending for him.SeanT said:
Anyway I doubt we will agree. Let's watch the French beat the Irish. Hopefully.
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Some of us are rooting for France, which is weird, because normally I hate them and I'd be cheering for an Al Qaeda XV against France.corporeal said:
Eh, I'm rooting for BOD tbh. Genuinely not out of any anti-English feeling (very much with Warburton on that score), but one of the best players I've ever seen, and the finest centre of his era. A grand slam would be a worthy ending for him.SeanT said:
Anyway I doubt we will agree. Let's watch the French beat the Irish. Hopefully.
But £25 @ 33/1 on France winning the Six Nations is clouding my judgement.0 -
Must confess I haven't counted but it seems to have happened quite a bit! In fact 2 of the last 3!corporeal said:
Eh? As far as I can see it's happened all of twice?MikeL said:6/1 is very good odds for England.
We've actually got a good draw - I know it looks like the Group of Death but point is that if we win the group we get Scotland in QF and France in SF.
Incidentally has anyone noticed how in almost every single World Cup NZ, SA and Aus all end up in the same half of the draw. It is an astonishing coincidence but it literally happens almost every single time.
Of course there have only been 5 WCs since SA were readmitted. If it happens again in 2015 (highly likely) that will be 3 of the last 4 (and 3 out of 6 overall). Plus Aus and NZ were in the same half in 1991 before SA was readmitted. So that would be potentially 4 out of 7 where a Southern Hemisphere final was impossible.0 -
Eep, championship of course.SeanT said:
A grand slam?? Er, England beat Ireland at Twickenham this year. Have you forgotten?corporeal said:
Eh, I'm rooting for BOD tbh. Genuinely not out of any anti-English feeling (very much with Warburton on that score), but one of the best players I've ever seen, and the finest centre of his era. A grand slam would be a worthy ending for him.SeanT said:
Anyway I doubt we will agree. Let's watch the French beat the Irish. Hopefully.
lol
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Ukraine is putting out these alarming reports fairly regularly - troops are massing, ultimatums are being issued, columns of tanks are approaching, etc., but none of them seem to turn out very substantive. It's impossible to tell as a lay reader (perhaps Yokel knows more), but a possibility is that they're trying to keep the pot stirred so as to attract more Western aid. Similarly when I was in Moscow there were mutterings in the Government media that the Ukranians were infiltrating armed bands. My impression is that nobody is actually doing anything much bar the Russians sitting tight in Crimea, though both NATO and Russia have exercises in the area.SeanT said:Retweeted by Andrew Neil
Jan Cienski @jancienski 1h
Ukraine military says it has repelled an attempted Russian incursion near Crimea http://www.mil.gov.ua/index.php?lang=ua&part=news&sub=read&id=33046 … Odds of war getting higher
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SRU top brass should resign in shame after that farce. Can emperor Eck not have them flayed ?0
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Of times when all 3 qualified for the knockout stages they've all ended in the same half twice. Of course we forget a little now, with SA having been so strong, how much of an upset the 1995 WC was.MikeL said:
Must confess I haven't counted but it seems to have happened quite a bit! In fact 2 of the last 3!corporeal said:
Eh? As far as I can see it's happened all of twice?MikeL said:6/1 is very good odds for England.
We've actually got a good draw - I know it looks like the Group of Death but point is that if we win the group we get Scotland in QF and France in SF.
Incidentally has anyone noticed how in almost every single World Cup NZ, SA and Aus all end up in the same half of the draw. It is an astonishing coincidence but it literally happens almost every single time.
Of course there have only been 5 WCs since SA were readmitted. If it happens again in 2015 (highly likely) that will be 3 of the last 4 (and 3 out of 6 overall). Plus Aus and NZ were in the same half in 1991 before SA was readmitted. So that would be potentially 4 out of 7 where a Southern Hemisphere final was impossible.
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Western intelligence rates further action by Russia in Ukraine but beyond Crimea is 'probable but not certain' within the next 3 days.
This is likely to be assessed by a mix of comms intercepts and disposition assessments.0 -
The French look reasonably awake. how long ago was it that Vincent Clerc scored a late try against Ireland to win the 6 Nations?0
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They should be praised for that performance.TGOHF said:SRU top brass should resign in shame after that farce. Can emperor Eck not have them flayed ?
This has nothing to do with the fact I had backed Scotland at 9/4 to finish fifth.0 -
I know it's not Saint-Andre's style, but would have loved to see more of Fickou and Fofana together0
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Fickou and Fofana sounds like some Gaelic expletives.corporeal said:I know it's not Saint-Andre's style, but would have loved to see more of Fickou and Fofana together
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After this 6 Nations I might take a sneaky look around at French odds. They have plenty of talent around, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them figure it out.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fickou and Fofana sounds like some Gaelic expletives.corporeal said:I know it's not Saint-Andre's style, but would have loved to see more of Fickou and Fofana together
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They are 16/1 with Stan James and 14/1 with Publicity shy Paddy Power.corporeal said:
After this 6 Nations I might take a sneaky look around at French odds. They have plenty of talent around, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them figure it out.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fickou and Fofana sounds like some Gaelic expletives.corporeal said:I know it's not Saint-Andre's style, but would have loved to see more of Fickou and Fofana together
8/1 with William Hill.
That's worth a punt now
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner0 -
Yup, after the Crimea vote. Maybe some Cossacks at a border post got a bit over-excited?Y0kel said:Western intelligence rates further action by Russia in Ukraine but beyond Crimea is 'probable but not certain' within the next 3 days.
This is likely to be assessed by a mix of comms intercepts and disposition assessments.
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I don't buy it tbh. Talent wise there's a lot of good players there especially in the backs. They just don't seem to have any understanding as a team, or as a coach tbh. A lot of mixing and matching rather than fine tuning. Plisson from starting at 10 on his debut to out the squad, Tales from out the squad to starting 10.SeanT said:
It's remarkable how mediocre France have become (despite that alleged try). Didn't they hammer some SH sides a year or two ago?corporeal said:I know it's not Saint-Andre's style, but would have loved to see more of Fickou and Fofana together
I've heard a theory that they suffer from the English disease - too many foreign players in their league.
They're light in the pack, Picamole is off-form and they need Dusautoir back badly (a good second row would be handy but isn't really one about right now). But when they get players healthy I think they'll be back to very dangerous.0 -
A little over two years ago, they were in the World Cup Final.SeanT said:
France always have loads of talent around, they are one of the biggest rugby nations. But they haven't utilised that talent for a few years now, and under this present coach I can't see that changing.TheScreamingEagles said:
They are 16/1 with Stan James and 14/1 with Publicity shy Paddy Power.corporeal said:
After this 6 Nations I might take a sneaky look around at French odds. They have plenty of talent around, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them figure it out.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fickou and Fofana sounds like some Gaelic expletives.corporeal said:I know it's not Saint-Andre's style, but would have loved to see more of Fickou and Fofana together
8/1 with William Hill.
That's worth a punt now
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner0 -
Precisely, the point is that the piece is by Joyce. It's just good etiquette not to burden sites with 48 character urls.Carnyx said:@Stark_Dawning asking Mir Union Divvie on the past thread: Why did you 'tinyurl' the address by the way? It wasn't to mask the fact it's the website of Eric Joyce, I trust."
From the last thread, but an important point: I can't answer for UD, but I will say that I have been impressed by the writings of Mr Joyce on current Scottish affairs. Irrespective, or perhaps because, of his axe to grind with the local Labour party in Falkirk, his comments on their very nearly disastrous bungling of their selection campaign, and the damage it almost did to Scotland's economy, were informative and useful contributions to current politics.
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Hmm, pondering various combined teams now. Wales/England, all 6 Nations (talent rather than performance) etc.0
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I am anticipating some movement towards the Conservatives.
It's the weather, stupid.0 -
Professor Adam Tomkins:
The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”.
A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop.
How do I know this?
I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.
This Act, described at the time of its enactment by the then Secretary of State for Scotland as the largest transfer of fiscal powers within the United Kingdom in its history, will bring to Holyrood a substantial degree of fiscal devolution.
These new powers — as long as Scotland votes No to independence — will come fully into force in 2015 and 2016.
Now, this is not “jam tomorrow”, as Nationalists sometimes claim: it has already been legislated for.
So the choice we face on 18 September is one between bringing devolution to an end (for there will be no devolution if Scotland becomes independent) and developing devolution further.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/03/15/reforming-devolution-deepening-union/
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Yes, you mentioned this theory a couple of days ago.audreyanne said:I am anticipating some movement towards the Conservatives.
It's the weather, stupid.
Weather correlating with variations in turnout between voting blocs I can understand but is there really any statistical evidence to support weather/seasons and incumbency?
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They are obviously all Bitter Together supporters, hence being useless.TGOHF said:SRU top brass should resign in shame after that farce. Can emperor Eck not have them flayed ?
Ha Ha Ha , all of 7% of our revenue to ourselves to decide what to do with. Let me think do I want control of 100% or 7%, hard decision. Another deluded halfwit.CarlottaVance said:Professor Adam Tomkins:
The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”.
A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop.
How do I know this?
I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.
This Act, described at the time of its enactment by the then Secretary of State for Scotland as the largest transfer of fiscal powers within the United Kingdom in its history, will bring to Holyrood a substantial degree of fiscal devolution.
These new powers — as long as Scotland votes No to independence — will come fully into force in 2015 and 2016.
Now, this is not “jam tomorrow”, as Nationalists sometimes claim: it has already been legislated for.
So the choice we face on 18 September is one between bringing devolution to an end (for there will be no devolution if Scotland becomes independent) and developing devolution further.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/03/15/reforming-devolution-deepening-union/0 -
I always remember it back in the day when I studied politics. There is quite a correlation, including on election day itself. Having said that the theory only works when there aren't other major drivers. So, for instance, despite good weather on 1st May 1997 the Conservatives were doomed regardless.GeoffM said:
Yes, you mentioned this theory a couple of days ago.audreyanne said:I am anticipating some movement towards the Conservatives.
It's the weather, stupid.
Weather correlating with variations in turnout between voting blocs I can understand but is there really any statistical evidence to support weather/seasons and incumbency?
It's no accident that most General Elections were called in spring time: May being favoured over April when the sap is rising and the warmth returning. It coincides with the end of the long dark winters, is a time of regenerative hope and, very practically, when pockets begin to fill a little more after the Christmas and New Year spending.
After this winter which, whilst not cold was nevertheless particularly pernicious for flooding and gales, these settled and mild conditions at least down south are in my view likely to see the feel-good factor return.
I may be wrong! We shall see, but I expect over the next two or three months to see the Conservative share rise.0 -
Such a charmer!malcolmg said:
They are obviously all Bitter Together supporters, hence being useless.TGOHF said:SRU top brass should resign in shame after that farce. Can emperor Eck not have them flayed ?
Another deluded halfwit.CarlottaVance said:Professor Adam Tomkins:
The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”.
A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop.
How do I know this?
I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.
This Act, described at the time of its enactment by the then Secretary of State for Scotland as the largest transfer of fiscal powers within the United Kingdom in its history, will bring to Holyrood a substantial degree of fiscal devolution.
These new powers — as long as Scotland votes No to independence — will come fully into force in 2015 and 2016.
Now, this is not “jam tomorrow”, as Nationalists sometimes claim: it has already been legislated for.
So the choice we face on 18 September is one between bringing devolution to an end (for there will be no devolution if Scotland becomes independent) and developing devolution further.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/03/15/reforming-devolution-deepening-union/
Its not me that's fleeing the country on the 19th.......
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Gerry Hassan @GerryHassan 1m
Michael Gove slams the number of Etonians in Cameron's 'inner circle' as 'ridiculous'. #brokenbritain http://goo.gl/8TSe4T
Alan Gibbons @mygibbo 4h
Public schoolboy attacks Conservatives' 'ridiculous' number of Old Etonians in leadership bid. http://gu.com/p/3nhtc/tw via @guardian
Steve Ashton @steveashtonukip 2h
#Gove launches scathing attack on 'preposterous' number of Etonians in Cameron's inner circle http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/michael-gove-launches-scathing-attack-on-preposterous-number-of-etonians-in-david-camerons-inner-circle-9193640.html … via @standardnews
Jeremy Hoare @TopTVCameraman 7h
So wasn't Gove allowed into the Bullingdon Club then? Gove attacks Cameron’s ‘ridiculous’ inner circle of Etonians http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-attacks-david-camerons-ridiculous-inner-circle-of-etonians-9193869.html …
*tears of laughter etc*
Incompetent fops.
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I seem to recall France winning the football World Cup being considered a pro-incumbant factor in the following presidential election.audreyanne said:
I always remember it back in the day when I studied politics. There is quite a correlation, including on election day itself. Having said that the theory only works when there aren't other major drivers. So, for instance, despite good weather on 1st May 1997 the Conservatives were doomed regardless.GeoffM said:
Yes, you mentioned this theory a couple of days ago.audreyanne said:I am anticipating some movement towards the Conservatives.
It's the weather, stupid.
Weather correlating with variations in turnout between voting blocs I can understand but is there really any statistical evidence to support weather/seasons and incumbency?
It's no accident that most General Elections were called in spring time: May being favoured over April when the sap is rising and the warmth returning. It coincides with the end of the long dark winters, is a time of regenerative hope and, very practically, when pockets begin to fill a little more after the Christmas and New Year spending.
After this winter which, whilst not cold was nevertheless particularly pernicious for flooding and gales, these settled and mild conditions at least down south are in my view likely to see the feel-good factor return.
I may be wrong! We shall see, but I expect over the next two or three months to see the Conservative share rise.
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Ah, now I understood these to be two separate theories and I suspect you are merging them without complete justification.audreyanne said:
I always remember it back in the day when I studied politics. There is quite a correlation, including on election day itself. Having said that the theory only works when there aren't other major drivers. So, for instance, despite good weather on 1st May 1997 the Conservatives were doomed regardless.GeoffM said:
Yes, you mentioned this theory a couple of days ago.audreyanne said:I am anticipating some movement towards the Conservatives.
It's the weather, stupid.
Weather correlating with variations in turnout between voting blocs I can understand but is there really any statistical evidence to support weather/seasons and incumbency?
It's no accident that most General Elections were called in spring time: May being favoured over April when the sap is rising and the warmth returning. It coincides with the end of the long dark winters, is a time of regenerative hope and, very practically, when pockets begin to fill a little more after the Christmas and New Year spending.
After this winter which, whilst not cold was nevertheless particularly pernicious for flooding and gales, these settled and mild conditions at least down south are in my view likely to see the feel-good factor return.
I may be wrong! We shall see, but I expect over the next two or three months to see the Conservative share rise.
Election day voting turnout will vary depending on weather (rain suppresses the casual vote, sun will boost the older vote etc etc) and time of year also has an effect (Uni voters might not be registered where they are based at election times, the election might fall during the 5 months a year teachers are sunbathing in Benidorm etc)
But weather for voting intention? That could only be a background feelgood factor raising optimism which is, like surrealism, a completely different cup of tuna.
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Toby Helm @tobyhelm 59s
Labour lead still 5pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 (+1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 16 (-3), Lib Dems 10 (n/c). Mili, Clegg ratings up, Cam same0 -
GeoffGeoffM said:
Yes, you mentioned this theory a couple of days ago.audreyanne said:I am anticipating some movement towards the Conservatives.
It's the weather, stupid.
Weather correlating with variations in turnout between voting blocs I can understand but is there really any statistical evidence to support weather/seasons and incumbency?
I think you are overlooking the fact that there is a Full Moon in Virgo tomorrow and that planetary forces are re-aligning in preparation for the Vernal Equinox on Thursday.
Venus is also due to connect with Uranus on Tuesday.
It all bodes well for Tory fortunes.
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Re: Tomnod crowdsearching. Each PIXEL of the (original) search area has now been viewed by a human being 30 times...
http://qz.com/188270/using-crowdsourcing-to-search-for-flight-mh-370-has-both-pluses-and-minuses/0 -
The last Opinium poll had UKIP at their highest score for some time, prior to that they were polling consistently around 15/16/17 range.SeanT said:
Modest relief for Labour. But more evidence of UKIP decline (which will please Tories).TheScreamingEagles said:Toby Helm @tobyhelm 59s
Labour lead still 5pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 (+1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 16 (-3), Lib Dems 10 (n/c). Mili, Clegg ratings up, Cam same
So it's a reversion back to where they were.0 -
You don't believe me do you?GeoffM said:
That sounds dangerous. Have people been warned?AveryLP said:
Venus is also due to connect with Uranus on Tuesday.
I quote:
When Venus connects with Uranus on Tuesday, people can reveal unexpected new aspects of themselves, friendship is easy to feel, brotherhood too, if you admit the possibility. Take a walk on the wild side. This chance will come again but not in the same way.
[www.celestialweather.com]
There is no so blind as those, like Opinium and compouter, who cannot see,0 -
Is it? Last month they were up 2 points. This is just margin of error movement.SeanT said:
But more evidence of UKIP decline (which will please Tories).TheScreamingEagles said:Toby Helm @tobyhelm 59s
Labour lead still 5pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 (+1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 16 (-3), Lib Dems 10 (n/c). Mili, Clegg ratings up, Cam same
http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-25th-february-2014
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A law professor like him should know better than to come out with that stuff. Or may be it is that he is a lawyer and not a philosopher. He is quite wrong in implying that the great new powers (e.g. air rifle control) will not come into force if Scotland votes Yes. Of coruse they will. They will be taken over, like everything else.CarlottaVance said:Professor Adam Tomkins:
The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”.
A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop.
How do I know this?
I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.
This Act, described at the time of its enactment by the then Secretary of State for Scotland as the largest transfer of fiscal powers within the United Kingdom in its history, will bring to Holyrood a substantial degree of fiscal devolution.
These new powers — as long as Scotland votes No to independence — will come fully into force in 2015 and 2016.
Now, this is not “jam tomorrow”, as Nationalists sometimes claim: it has already been legislated for.
So the choice we face on 18 September is one between bringing devolution to an end (for there will be no devolution if Scotland becomes independent) and developing devolution further.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/03/15/reforming-devolution-deepening-union/
This is no doubt Professor Tomkins who orated at the Tory conference in Edinburgh the other day, too.
And the SoS must have been on the sauce if he can't tell the difference between the Scotland Act 1998 and this mickey mouse stuff.
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Very profitable six nations.
Delighted that Brian O'Driscoll went out on a high0 -
Liverpool have done well but rode their luck in several games recently. I think Man Utd will turn them over tomorrow, Moyes has been a disaster but I think Utd's players will be up for this game.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liverpool and England playing glorious entertaining stuff.corporeal said:
Right call for a red, with what we're learning about concussions shots to the head should and re being clamped down on.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
(In relation to the deserved raving about the English team, they do look very good and play nice expansive rugby. As I said earlier, their second rows deserve the highest praise).
If only our football team and cricket team could do the same.
For Liverpool going to Old Trafford will always be hard, it is hard to put into words how much time served Man Utd fans dislike Liverpool and Liverpool FC, for Moyes future he has to realise this match will matter a lot more than the Champions League or Man City next week, lose this one and I would certainly put money on his departure in the near future. The pressure on him would move to another scale.
I talk about this as a neutral who has lived in Greater Manchester for many years.
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All the Man United fans I know are utterly fearful for tomorrow.macisback said:
Liverpool have done well but rode their luck in several games recently. I think Man Utd will turn them over tomorrow, Moyes has been a disaster but I think Utd's players will be up for this game.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liverpool and England playing glorious entertaining stuff.corporeal said:
Right call for a red, with what we're learning about concussions shots to the head should and re being clamped down on.SouthamObserver said:Could be a massacre in Cardiff. Wales to run riot against 14-man Scotland?
(In relation to the deserved raving about the English team, they do look very good and play nice expansive rugby. As I said earlier, their second rows deserve the highest praise).
If only our football team and cricket team could do the same.
For Liverpool going to Old Trafford will always be hard, it is hard to put into words how much time served Man Utd fans dislike Liverpool and Liverpool FC, for Moyes future he has to realise this match will matter a lot more than the Champions League or Man City next week, lose this one and I would certainly put money on his departure in the near future. The pressure on him would move to another scale.
I talk about this as a neutral who has lived in Greater Manchester for many years.
One of them is convinced of such a shellacking he's given me his ticket for the match tomorrow.0 -
Yeah, never trust the French.
Any opportunity to screw over the English, they'll take it, ever since the Treaty of Troyes, in fact, even before that.
But delighted for Brian O'Driscoll.0 -
There's a lot of discussion about the what and how of the missing flight. But very little about the why.
Why would anyone commandeer a plane with a full complement of passengers and crew? The motive doesn't seem to be for a ransom. The plane wasn't crashed into a target. There is no sign so far that the plane crashed at all.
The possibilities are all grim. The most ominous is that it now seems entirely possible that those commandeering the plane, crew and passengers have succeeded in securing it and them at an unknown location. This, it appears, may be only phase one of a plan. I doubt that phase two will be to our liking. It seems well organised.0 -
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 5m
Opinium/Observer poll: CON 30% LAB 35% LDEM 10% UKIP 16%0 -
Well I'm a Liverpool fan and I certainly concede we have had a lot of luck in recent weeks.
I don't regard making the top 4 as anything like guaranteed - if we lose tomorrow then the pressure will be back on and it could easily tighten up - especially as we still have to play Spurs.0 -
If UKIP can manage to decline without affecting the Labour lead, that's absolutely fine with us lefties - one uncertainty less.SeanT said:
Modest relief for Labour. But more evidence of UKIP decline (which will please Tories).TheScreamingEagles said:Toby Helm @tobyhelm 59s
Labour lead still 5pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 (+1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 16 (-3), Lib Dems 10 (n/c). Mili, Clegg ratings up, Cam same
As a matter of interest, how many here expect the Budget to result in a shift beyond MOE (either way)? My recolelction is that Budgets very rarely do, the omnishambles excepted. People do pay attention and think it might be big, then they work out it's benefited them by £8.73 per year or they've lost £4.68, and they shrug and move on.
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Planes do have a cash value too.antifrank said:There's a lot of discussion about the what and how of the missing flight. But very little about the why.
Why would anyone commandeer a plane with a full complement of passengers and crew? The motive doesn't seem to be for a ransom. The plane wasn't crashed into a target. There is no sign so far that the plane crashed at all.
The possibilities are all grim. The most ominous is that it now seems entirely possible that those commandeering the plane, crew and passengers have succeeded in securing it and them at an unknown location. This, it appears, may be only phase one of a plan. I doubt that phase two will be to our liking. It seems well organised.
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That was not good for the blood pressure.
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Profitable though.Neil said:That was not good for the blood pressure.
I keep on telling you, every time I back Ireland, they win!0 -
I don't see any evidence of UKIP decline in fact they are plus 1 on the last Opinium poll reported above by OGH.NickPalmer said:
If UKIP can manage to decline without affecting the Labour lead, that's absolutely fine with us lefties - one uncertainty less.SeanT said:
Modest relief for Labour. But more evidence of UKIP decline (which will please Tories).TheScreamingEagles said:Toby Helm @tobyhelm 59s
Labour lead still 5pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 (+1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 16 (-3), Lib Dems 10 (n/c). Mili, Clegg ratings up, Cam same
As a matter of interest, how many here expect the Budget to result in a shift beyond MOE (either way)? My recolelction is that Budgets very rarely do, the omnishambles excepted. People do pay attention and think it might be big, then they work out it's benefited them by £8.73 per year or they've lost £4.68, and they shrug and move on.0 -
Mike's figures above are wrong, UKIP are down 3% on the last Opinium poll.MikeK said:
I don't see any evidence of UKIP decline in fact they are plus 1 on the last Opinium poll reported above by OGH.NickPalmer said:
If UKIP can manage to decline without affecting the Labour lead, that's absolutely fine with us lefties - one uncertainty less.SeanT said:
Modest relief for Labour. But more evidence of UKIP decline (which will please Tories).TheScreamingEagles said:Toby Helm @tobyhelm 59s
Labour lead still 5pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 (+1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 16 (-3), Lib Dems 10 (n/c). Mili, Clegg ratings up, Cam same
As a matter of interest, how many here expect the Budget to result in a shift beyond MOE (either way)? My recolelction is that Budgets very rarely do, the omnishambles excepted. People do pay attention and think it might be big, then they work out it's benefited them by £8.73 per year or they've lost £4.68, and they shrug and move on.0
