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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money goes on an early exit for Corbyn
Corbyn is receiving backlash today following last night’s BBC Panorama documentary on Labour anti-Semitism.
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Why would he? There is no evidence that he would lose another membership ballot. It would be closer than last time - but I can't see him losing.
If there is a snap election and he loses, then he might step down. But I can't see him losing a direct challenge at the moment
https://twitter.com/edwinmandella/status/1149236853876383744
Pathetic.
There ye go, ye can have that one for free from north o' the border..
While Unite writes the checks and McCluskey still backs him.
Indeed the next centre left PM may come from the LDs not Labour, Umunna or even Swinson look more credible future PMs than Corbyn
Are you even British?
On Brexit, once Boris is in number 10 I reckon his challenge is that to land a no-deal Brexit still requires 6 bills to be passed. There's no way parliament would let them through, so his only Oct 31st option is a proper scorched earth departure, simply leaving a void with no legal framework for trade, migration, etc. So I do think it has to be a quick GE.
Will Corbyn and Labour MPs agree to an early election when the polls have them in fourth place?
The Lib Dem membership was pretty supportive of Clegg at the toughest points in the Coalition and when his public reputation was in the toilet... but that's because those who didn't like going into Coalition upped sticks pretty rapidly in 2010-11.
Get us out of Europe, away from that world of social safety net support, regulated markets and environmental protection, and into the US orbit, as a virtual off-shore state.
They will not rest until social and health protections are torn up, the jobs market completely deregulated, the welfare state reduced to american levels and everything privatised.
https://twitter.com/LordTobySays/status/1149293031457267717
As we speak they are 2.8 to win - i.e. a very good chance.
Last time they were rank outsiders.
The giveaway is when they seem unaware that the same Laffer Curve also says that raising taxes can increase revenue and lowering them can reduce revenue.
The key variable is where we are on the curve; those who try to cite it as an excuse for a tax cut automatically seem to assume that we are, no matter the conditions or the current tax level, always on the right hand side of the peak, with not even the slightest attempt to justify that position.
"It can increase revenue by reducing taxes" instantly mutates into "It will increase revenue by reducing taxes." It is just as fallacious as the opposite automatic assumption; that raising taxes automatically increases revenue. It's very rare for either type of advocate to try to make the case legitimately.
HS2 has been forced to cancel the current bidding process to construct the new Curzon Street station in Birmingham, and restart the process later this year.
The rail body had hoped to attract at least four bidders for the contract, but a lack of interest means they will restart the process in September.
Also worth pointing out that the Laffer curve is simply a pictorial representation of a conjecture. It hasn't been plotted using data. It's just a thought experiment.
Some non EU states like Norway have higher welfare protection than the EU average, our welfare and health care system is actually closer to Australia and New Zealand than it is to either the EU or USA
Basically, you can ignore anyone who cites the Laffer Curve when discussing a specific proposal unless they consider the exact circumstances, including most notably what other options the taxpayers have.
One gambit for Labour might be to refuse to vote for an early election and to insist on voting instead for no confidence, to give it the opportunity to form a government on the existing numbers.
Pretty well right, except there is no empirical evidence for the existence of such a thing.
One might posit the existence of numerous curves, for every different economy at different points in time - but as a useful predictor of economic responses to policy, such a thing just does not exist.
250 still a possibility, even if not on the cards.
One gotcha though is that the parliamentary vote calling for an election is divorced from the decision on the date of the election, which would be made by the PM.
We need to bat sensibly in our innings. Not been our best trait when batting second.
Send em back!
That said, 6/4 is rotten odds. I'd want at least double that: 4/1 or above.
Imperial College London from 31% to 46%
University of Huddersfield: 15% to 40%
University College London: 24% to 40%
Durham University: 18% to 38%
University of East Anglia: 14% to 39%
University of Northumbria: 16% to 35%
University of West London: 13% to 34%
Staffordshire University: 14% to 34%
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-48951653
Edit - and he's now OUT.
Will Labour NC a Boris-led govt intent on a No Deal Brexit?
Let's assume they do. The next questions are:
- will the Commons back Corbyn to be PM?
- will the Commons back anyone else to be PM?
If not, then we head to a GE anyway (and quite possibly No Deal into the bargain).
If they will back Corbyn in principle, the question becomes what conditions the SNP, Lib Dems and others would place on that Labour government. Probably, these would involve rapid action to at the least kick the can on Brexit but that done, the incentive for the LDs and SNP to continue to back a Labour party committed to its own Brexit deal (whether achievable or not), drops of markedly, so we either have an early dissolution built into the deal or else Corbyn gets No Confidenced in turn.
Whichever way the marble rolls, I think we end up at 'General Election' sooner or later, and by next Spring by the latest.
I do wonder why we didn't bring back Woakes earlier with Archer.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/02/02/labours-next-leader-dawn-butler-at-100-1/
1. Ambassador forced out of job despite doing nothing wrong and left unsupported by likely next PM.
2. Staff working in complaints unit of Labour Party put under intolerable stress, bullied and intimidated.
3. Staff working for MPs bullied and sexually harassed and assaulted - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/investigation-uncovers-litany-of-bullying-and-assaults-by-mps-xgpgp3m3c
What wonderful role models we have.
I acknowledge that for any given economy at any particular time, there is likely to exist an optimum rate for any particular tax (though this would, naturally, be impacted by rates for other taxes).
One can even model the impact of changes in taxes - though of course models are subject to uncertainties.
Beyond that, the idea that there is any theoretical curve which is useful as a predictive toll is simply nonsense for the rhetorical use of right wing politicians.