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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first week in a very long time three different poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth
It is clearly far too early to draw conclusions but in the week after the Elvis Bus Pass party debacle the LDs have had a good few days in the polls and overnight made two gains from CON in the latest round of council by-elections.
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March 7-8 2013
Well: 30
Badly;61
DK:10
March 6-7 2014
Well:41
Badly:49
DK:10
32% feel he is right to offer a referendum conditionally.
43% believe he should have offered one anyway
7% say he should not have offered one.
18% DK
Reaction to how people now think of EdM
More positive: 11%
More negative: 17%
No difference, have a positive opinion of him and still do:14$
No difference, have a negative opinion of him and still do: 39%
DK: 19
One of Labour's problems has been that they have not wanted to talk about their time in office. They've done very little to defend it, or to explain what they would do differently next time. It's as though they'd rather people would pretend it never happened.
The Lib Dems have a few good stories to tell about the Coalition. They have a record to defend.
Lock up your sandals ......
Two 30-somethings without a mobile phone?
That could easily change, even as soon as next week.
Meantime Labour's lead deserves to fall. My MP sent me a copy of their housing policy, which I have to say I mistook for a Bow Group pamphlet (or at least the Bow Group of an earlier generation). I don't suppose that "the worst housing problem for a generation" is going to be fixed by tax incentives to private landlords to create longer tenancies. (Nor that quoting the very different French housing market is at all relevant.) And neither, I suspect, do they. In truth, there are votes in making people homeless.
So here's a first from IA. A policy suggestion that could as easily be taken up by UKIP as by the Lib Dems. Replace the appointed Lords by a revising chamber elected by freeholders (and leaseholds over a certain amount, possibly). You don't have to be Disraeli to know a thing or two about fancy franchises!
Someone recently mentioned a Tory woman MPs idea for each constituency to elect two MPs, one male and one female. If you're going to have different franchises for each chamber perhaps one option would be to have a House of Men and a House of Women.
RIP
Labour politician Tony Benn has died, aged 88.
As an aside, on my mobile (Vodafone) I sometimes see a message saying 'ermegency calls only' or somesuch when I'm out in the wilds. Does that mean that there's signal from the cell of another provider, and it will connect to that in emergencies?
If so, it's a blooming good idea.
With the Euros not so far away, UKIP are adrift. This years narrative of UKIP dominating the poll and the Tories imploding may well have been oversold. A glimmer of hope for LDs also.
An interesting man who seemed to undertake a journey over his lifetime.
When I think of him, I think of him as the man who gave us Concorde, British Leyland and ICL. The first a glorious failure, the second an eventual failure, and the third a hopeless failure.
Which is probably an unusual view of him. Then again, I'm a techie ...
His elder son Stephen succeeds to his fathers disclaimed hereditary peerage as the third Viscount Stansgate. He is also in remainder to the Benn baronetage of The Old Knoll.
Wonderful evening last night -Tale of Two Cities at Northampton Derngate Theatre - magnificent production and cast. Must move to West end - don't miss it.
However, being a wealthy man, I felt that often he was out of touch with the actualities of those he claimed to represent and at times was more of a political theorist than realist.
But let's not pretend that as a politician he was anything other than profoundly destructive. As a cabinet minister in the 70s he was disloyal as a matter of course, while in the early 80s he advocated a brand of left-wing insanity that almost destroyed the Labour party and without question gave the Tories a free pass for the entire decade and beyond. He was certainly a conviction politician who would not compromise his beliefs, but he was wrong on just about everything that mattered. He was correct about one thing, though: it should always be about policies, not personalities; and judged on that basis throughout his career Tony Benn did a lot more harm than good. No wonder the Establishment so cherished him in his later years.
It touches on points raised by the passing of Bob Crow the other day. The Labour movement since Tony Blair has such a small and declining smattering of people who really care about those they are supposed to represent. The march of the managerial class is relentless and there are few bastions left anywhere. Is this a good thing given that these ideas were often wrong headed? I am not sure.
I also recall the Guildhall round the corner was a rather splendid building and also a church in the adjacent square had much merit.
Sooner hereditary peerages are removed the better.
If Tony Benn REALLY gave the title up then the title is no longer valid surely?
Wedgewood Benn achieved much, kept his party away from power for 18 years. Forced Labour to rethink its approach to power from 1992. Destructive yet constructive element to his career. Would disagree over his views on politics and personality, compare the strengths and weaknesses of Blair and Brown; Blair could sustain an anti-Conservative coalition better than Brown, in part his personality helped sell the policies. Brown in other respects was a vote killer - dour, uncharismatic- yet were Labour's politics very different under the two men?
Benn was very a interesting speaker - shame about his analytical skills.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Tony-Benn-dies-Bristol-MP-passes-away-aged-88/story-20810343-detail/story.html
Did your wife ever meet him, as he was very personable both publicly and privately - he would put his case well and argue thoughtfully and forcibly but his ideas were often built on academic theory that was not well thought out.
I agree with you regarding the managerial class who seem to expand exponentially without achieving anything significant.
In our specialist consultancy everyone is a doer (even the MD and FD) and we encourage radical thinking to problems (both current and potential) - that it what gets us our business.
His and my relationship - although of course I never knew him - is a classic example of two people who only want the best for their fellow man but who have radically different views on how that is best achieved. I believe that applies to most people on here as well and I think that it is something that both I and others could do well to remember using old Tony as an inspiration.
RIP Mr Benn.
UKIP's average support this week has been 12%, across pollsters, where it's been for a while.
I met him once, by accident, at a train station. He was a lovely guy and very talkative. A towering figure of his age - and a real gent.
The peerage is disclaimed in the lifetime of the holder and is dormant until the death of the former peer when normal rules of succession apply.
The new Viscount Stansgate is not entitled to claim any HoL expenses unless he becomes one of the elected hereditary peers in a Lords by-election.
Miliband was his intern?
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/79539936606/ed-miliband-statement-on-tony-benn
Wasn't Dungeness over twelve years late?
RIP Tony Benn.
Caught the last hour of P2. Currently writing the pre-qualifying piece, should be up reasonably shortly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1Khj7ZHMSo
Baron Altrincham, by John Grigg, from 1963 to 2001
Viscount Hailsham and Baron Hailsham, by Quintin Hogg (later Baron Hailsham of St Marylebone) from 1963 to 2001
Earl of Home, Lord Home, Lord Dunglass and Baron Douglas, by Alec Douglas-Home (later
Baron Home of the Hirsel) from 1963 to 1995
Viscount Stansgate, by Tony Benn from 1963 to 2014
Baron Monkswell, by William Collier, from 1964 to 1984
Baron Beaverbrook, by Max Aitken, from 1964 to 1985
Baron Southampton, by Charles FitzRoy, from 1964 to 1989
Earl of Sandwich, Viscount Hinchingbrooke and Baron Montagu, by Victor Montagu, from 1964 to 1995
Baron Fraser of Allander, by Hugh Fraser, from 1966 to 1987
Earl of Durham, Viscount Lambton and Baron Durham, by Antony Lambton, from 1970 to 2006
Baron Sanderson of Ayot, by Alan Sanderson, since 1971
Baron Silkin, by Arthur Silkin, from 1972 to 2001
Baron Reith, by Christopher Reith, since 1972
Baron Archibald, by Christopher Archibald from 1975 to 1996
Baron Merthyr, by Trevor Lewis, since 1977
Earl of Selkirk and Lord Daer and Shortcleuch, by Lord James Douglas-Hamilton (later Baron Selkirk of Douglas), since 1994
Viscount Camrose and Baron Camrose, by Michael Berry (later Baron Hartwell), from 1995 to 2001
Baron Silkin, by Christopher Silkin, since 2002
Sources - Burkes and Wiki.
"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have quietly aligned policy pledges in more than a dozen areas, prompting speculation that they are preparing the ground for a coalition after next year’s general election.
Ed Miliband’s decision this week to effectively rule out a referendum on the EU if he becomes prime minister was the latest in a series of moves which bring the two parties more closely into line.
While Tory strategists admit they struggle to envisage reaching agreement on plans for another five years of power-sharing with the Lib Dems, Labour now agrees with Nick Clegg’s party on a broad range of issues.
An analysis by the New Statesman identifies 14 areas where Labour and the Lib Dems have converged, including cutting pensioner benefits, reducing the voting age to 16 and a mansion tax on expensive homes.
Others are preserving the Human Rights Act, introducing new green energy targets and restricting the ability of free schools to hire whoever they want.
Senior Labour figures are split over whether to prepare for the possibility of a pact – something Gordon Brown’s government failed to do in 2010, making it easier for the Lib Dems to reach an agreement with the Conservatives.
Lord Adonis, the shadow minister for infrastructure, has called publicly for the party to start planning for a deal, but Harriet Harman, the deputy leader, has dismissed such calls, suggesting it could prevent some Lib Dem voters from switching to Labour.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2580598/Suspicions-Lib-Lab-pact-merge-policies-Milibands-decision-reject-EU-referendum-latest-series-moves-bring-parties-line.html#ixzz2vvLQbcS6
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/australia-pre-qualifying.html
Two or three decades back while looking for an 18th birthday present for a friend, I ran into Tony Benn signing his diaries in Dillons. He was kind enough to write half a page with his red biro. Couldn't make out a bloody word!
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/94876/response/237777/attach/4/FOI 73767 Peerage documents.pdf
I'm not sure even Ken Livingstone fits the bill.
So we have Owen Jones, who I find difficult to take seriously, and who else?
Bob Crow was also pro death penalty - not a common view on the left and one that I totally oppose.
I feel it more likely that @Stuart_Dickson will be dancing the fandango in celebration of a triumphant NO victory on the 18th September than I would be appending my hand to such an instrument.
On the other hand I might endeavour to persuade Mrs JackW to disclaim an interest in female foot attire .... Hhmm .... back to Stuart dancing I fear ....
Huge sympathies for Mary and all three children.
Do you think Ed would be where he is today without having been Tony's intern?
They stood on the shoulders of others to work their way up the greasy pole. Perhaps that's why they're both not very good.
I believe he'll be more widely loathed than Brown. The left will wish to repudiate him because of Iraq and courting the right/centre vote, the right for being leftwing and giving away half the rebate/telling the Commons a load of bullshit over Iraq.
Brown will have supporters on the left, I think.
On another note, Guido has a nice and simple tribute to Benn.
An object lesson in how to make the spin from Clegg's ostrich faction seem even more irrelevant than usual.
I think, though, that he'll go through a difficult time, when, or even if Chilcott gets released. I don't doubt he'll ride it out.
What on earth would make you think that?
Lots of rumours coming out about the Malaysian plane flight. The latest is that it was tracked heading towards the Andaman Islands in the Indian Ocean.
I'm tempted to file this under the same heading as all the previous claims, but something about this feels intriguing ...
Arts Emergency @artsemergency 1h
Tony Benn's five questions to ask the powerful: pic.twitter.com/J9rynLcvFn
http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/cheshire-east-crewe-west-result-lab-hold.html
Maybe the last of the pipe smoking politicians.
This is the guy who founded Google. Biggest internet company in the world. Famous for snooping on its users. There's some irony involved here.
Please take my amusement at your petulant response in the spirit it was intended.
I hope Arthur Scargill is looking after himself....
His agenda of maintaining and yet reforming public sector services utilising the efficiency and innovation of the private sector to deliver them is still relevant although it has very few believers in either party. I am not saying his solutions were the right ones or that the implementation was anything other than incompetent but as the squeeze on the public sector gets ever tighter over the next decade and yet the needs to be met get greater too I suspect these ideas will come back in one form or another.
#UKIP votes:
28.2% Chertsey Meads, Runnymede
26.8% Crewe W
23.0% Heanor W, Amber Valley
18.1% Barham Downs, Canterbury
13.3% Farley, Luton
Equalls an average of 21.96% over five districts. a far cry from Ipsos-Mori and co
http://www.itv.com/news/2013-11-01/toronto-mayor-stays-resolute-amid-crack-pipe-allegations/
I'm somewhat surprised he hasn't featured in a private eye lookalike by now considering his remarkable resemblance to a certain 'pickled' politician in that photo.
Turns out a prime minister lying to the Commons ahead of a vote on war didn't go down very well.
‘My mother and father were both Congregationalists,’ he says, ‘and Congregationalism is interesting because everybody has a hotline to the Almighty, you don’t need a Bishop to help you.’ So no hierarchies, just trust the people? ‘Yes. We used to read the Bible every night and my mother told me that the Bible is the story of the conflict between the Kings who had power and the Prophets who preached righteousness. She taught me to support the Prophets against the Kings, you see?’ I nod. ‘Well, I’ve believed that ever since.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/tony-benn-1925-2014-a-politician-who-actually-believes-in-people/
So a LD by-election gain relative to a disasterous 2011 result when they lost by 2.2%. Doesn't count for much.