politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth
It is clearly far too early to draw conclusions but in the week after the Elvis Bus Pass party debacle the LDs have had a good few days in the polls and overnight made two gains from CON in the latest round of council by-elections.
YouGov has assessed the response to EdM's EU referendum policy.
32% feel he is right to offer a referendum conditionally. 43% believe he should have offered one anyway 7% say he should not have offered one. 18% DK
Reaction to how people now think of EdM
More positive: 11% More negative: 17% No difference, have a positive opinion of him and still do:14$ No difference, have a negative opinion of him and still do: 39% DK: 19
The other thing which has been happening in the polls is that the Labour lead over the Conservative Party is narrowing. These two facts in combination prove conclusively and decisively that the Coalition is heading for a landslide re-election victory in 2015, and that Labour will be lucky if it manages to hold Bootle.
YouGov has assessed the response to EdM's EU referendum policy.
32% feel he is right to offer a referendum conditionally. 43% believe he should have offered one anyway 7% say he should not have offered one. 18% DK
Reaction to how people now think of EdM
More positive: 11% More negative: 17% No difference, have a positive opinion of him and still do:14$ No difference, have a negative opinion of him and still do: 39% DK: 19
Not bad to get only a 6% more or less positive deficit after a please-nobody fudge like that.
Coupled with other recent comments suggests that if Clegg stood down the LD’s would do a lot better.
I think that nay party of government has to defend their record in government. Ditching Clegg would amount to an admission that the Coalition was a mistake - they can only credibly do that after the voters have told them that by wiping them out at a GE.
One of Labour's problems has been that they have not wanted to talk about their time in office. They've done very little to defend it, or to explain what they would do differently next time. It's as though they'd rather people would pretend it never happened.
The Lib Dems have a few good stories to tell about the Coalition. They have a record to defend.
Sky News and the Beeb both reporting that one of the four fatalities in the Norfolk helicopter crash is Conservative life peer, donor and Ulster's richest man Lord Ballyedmund.
Sky News and the Beeb both reporting that one of the four fatalities in the Norfolk helicopter crash is Conservative life peer, donor and Ulster's richest man Lord Ballyedmund.
One minor but, I would have thought notable point in the story is that the quoted eye-witness had to go to McDonalds to get the staff to ring for help.
Surely all this shows is that the Lib Dems have done a good job in promoting themselves recently, particularly over taxation. UKIP, on the other hand, have effectively been silent.
That could easily change, even as soon as next week.
Meantime Labour's lead deserves to fall. My MP sent me a copy of their housing policy, which I have to say I mistook for a Bow Group pamphlet (or at least the Bow Group of an earlier generation). I don't suppose that "the worst housing problem for a generation" is going to be fixed by tax incentives to private landlords to create longer tenancies. (Nor that quoting the very different French housing market is at all relevant.) And neither, I suspect, do they. In truth, there are votes in making people homeless.
So here's a first from IA. A policy suggestion that could as easily be taken up by UKIP as by the Lib Dems. Replace the appointed Lords by a revising chamber elected by freeholders (and leaseholds over a certain amount, possibly). You don't have to be Disraeli to know a thing or two about fancy franchises!
So here's a first from IA. A policy suggestion that could as easily be taken up by UKIP as by the Lib Dems. Replace the appointed Lords by a revising chamber elected by freeholders (and leaseholds over a certain amount, possibly). You don't have to be Disraeli to know a thing or two about fancy franchises!
What is your thinking about this?
Someone recently mentioned a Tory woman MPs idea for each constituency to elect two MPs, one male and one female. If you're going to have different franchises for each chamber perhaps one option would be to have a House of Men and a House of Women.
Sky News and the Beeb both reporting that one of the four fatalities in the Norfolk helicopter crash is Conservative life peer, donor and Ulster's richest man Lord Ballyedmund.
One minor but, I would have thought notable point in the story is that the quoted eye-witness had to go to McDonalds to get the staff to ring for help.
Two 30-somethings without a mobile phone?
I've done some walking in that area (Angles Way and other strolls), and it would not surprise me if there was no or little mobile reception.
As an aside, on my mobile (Vodafone) I sometimes see a message saying 'ermegency calls only' or somesuch when I'm out in the wilds. Does that mean that there's signal from the cell of another provider, and it will connect to that in emergencies?
Sky News and the Beeb both reporting that one of the four fatalities in the Norfolk helicopter crash is Conservative life peer, donor and Ulster's richest man Lord Ballyedmund.
One minor but, I would have thought notable point in the story is that the quoted eye-witness had to go to McDonalds to get the staff to ring for help.
Two 30-somethings without a mobile phone?
I've done some walking in that area (Angles Way and other strolls), and it would not surprise me if there was no or little mobile reception.
As an aside, on my mobile (Vodafone) I sometimes see a message saying 'ermegency calls only' or somesuch when I'm out in the wilds. Does that mean that there's signal from the cell of another provider, and it will connect to that in emergencies?
If so, it's a blooming good idea.
There was a report a day or so ago Mr JJ, that Vodafone had poorer coverage than the other companies.
Sad news of Tony Benn. Always a genuine and passionate advocate of Socialism, and undaunted by its failures. A true aristocrat.
With the Euros not so far away, UKIP are adrift. This years narrative of UKIP dominating the poll and the Tories imploding may well have been oversold. A glimmer of hope for LDs also.
So here's a first from IA. A policy suggestion that could as easily be taken up by UKIP as by the Lib Dems. Replace the appointed Lords by a revising chamber elected by freeholders (and leaseholds over a certain amount, possibly). You don't have to be Disraeli to know a thing or two about fancy franchises!
What is your thinking about this?
Someone recently mentioned a Tory woman MPs idea for each constituency to elect two MPs, one male and one female. If you're going to have different franchises for each chamber perhaps one option would be to have a House of Men and a House of Women.
Touché. (And it's nice to know that at least one or two people read what I write...)
An interesting man who seemed to undertake a journey over his lifetime.
When I think of him, I think of him as the man who gave us Concorde, British Leyland and ICL. The first a glorious failure, the second an eventual failure, and the third a hopeless failure.
Which is probably an unusual view of him. Then again, I'm a techie ...
His elder son Stephen succeeds to his fathers disclaimed hereditary peerage as the third Viscount Stansgate. He is also in remainder to the Benn baronetage of The Old Knoll.
Interesting to listen to Labour worthies tying themselves in knots not to be rude about Tony Benn!!
Wonderful evening last night -Tale of Two Cities at Northampton Derngate Theatre - magnificent production and cast. Must move to West end - don't miss it.
I always found Mr Benn's books very readable as well as an interesting read and most informative about his view of those oft-troubled times. Certainly he used his retirement well and was very interesting to talk to.
However, being a wealthy man, I felt that often he was out of touch with the actualities of those he claimed to represent and at times was more of a political theorist than realist.
Interesting to listen to Labour worthies tying themselves in knots not to be rude about Tony Benn!!
Wonderful evening last night -Tale of Two Cities at Northampton Derngate Theatre - magnificent production and cast. Must move to West end - don't miss it.
Many a moon since Mrs JackW and I ventured to the Derngate - rather a drab place in contrast to the neighbouring Royal theatre which is a joy.
YouGov has assessed the response to EdM's EU referendum policy.
32% feel he is right to offer a referendum conditionally. 43% believe he should have offered one anyway 7% say he should not have offered one. 18% DK
Reaction to how people now think of EdM
More positive: 11% More negative: 17% No difference, have a positive opinion of him and still do:14$ No difference, have a negative opinion of him and still do: 39% DK: 19
Not bad to get only a 6% more or less positive deficit after a please-nobody fudge like that.
I very much doubt the electorate have paid attention to Ed's referendum offer and this is more likely to be a combination of "referendums are a good thing" and "what I think of Ed anyway...."
Tony Benn had a good, long life and served his country well in WW2. As a family man he was undoubtedly hugely loved and loving; while his personal kindnesses to political friends and foes did him nothing but credit. On all those fronts he was a fine person whose death is very sad for all who knew him.
But let's not pretend that as a politician he was anything other than profoundly destructive. As a cabinet minister in the 70s he was disloyal as a matter of course, while in the early 80s he advocated a brand of left-wing insanity that almost destroyed the Labour party and without question gave the Tories a free pass for the entire decade and beyond. He was certainly a conviction politician who would not compromise his beliefs, but he was wrong on just about everything that mattered. He was correct about one thing, though: it should always be about policies, not personalities; and judged on that basis throughout his career Tony Benn did a lot more harm than good. No wonder the Establishment so cherished him in his later years.
As the daughter of true socialists Tony Benn was a hero of my wife growing up and she even kept a soft spot for him years after she inflicted me on herself. He was an excellent speaker and his heart was in the right place even if his brain wasn't.
It touches on points raised by the passing of Bob Crow the other day. The Labour movement since Tony Blair has such a small and declining smattering of people who really care about those they are supposed to represent. The march of the managerial class is relentless and there are few bastions left anywhere. Is this a good thing given that these ideas were often wrong headed? I am not sure.
Think we were actually in the Royal (is called Royal and Derngate these days) - a lovely real theatre - disproportionally tall. Very effective for the guillotine.
I always found Mr Benn's books very readable as well as an interesting read and most informative about his view of those oft-troubled times. Certainly he used his retirement well and was very interesting to talk to.
However, being a wealthy man, I felt that often he was out of touch with the actualities of those he claimed to represent and at times was more of a political theorist than realist.
Well-to-do Left leaders are a global phenomenon -think of Gandhi, or even Lenin...
Think we were actually in the Royal (is called Royal and Derngate these days) - a lovely real theatre - disproportionally tall. Very effective for the guillotine.
Is it indeed. Has the Royal been restored ? .... on our last visit, some many decades ago, it had the feel of a grand old lady who'd seen better days and was living off the faded glories of years gone by.
I also recall the Guildhall round the corner was a rather splendid building and also a church in the adjacent square had much merit.
How come as the non Lord Stansgate for 50 odd years his son now puts his hand up and gets the title and the dosh for turning up for daily expenses with the ermine squad? Sooner hereditary peerages are removed the better. If Tony Benn REALLY gave the title up then the title is no longer valid surely?
Wedgewood Benn achieved much, kept his party away from power for 18 years. Forced Labour to rethink its approach to power from 1992. Destructive yet constructive element to his career. Would disagree over his views on politics and personality, compare the strengths and weaknesses of Blair and Brown; Blair could sustain an anti-Conservative coalition better than Brown, in part his personality helped sell the policies. Brown in other respects was a vote killer - dour, uncharismatic- yet were Labour's politics very different under the two men?
Benn was very a interesting speaker - shame about his analytical skills.
The wrong but nonetheless principled lefties are dying off this week. The spinning lying bullyboy scumbags of the Tom Watson / Derek Draper / Gordon Brown / Ed Balls end of the Labour spectrum are not. There is no god.
An interesting man who seemed to undertake a journey over his lifetime.
When I think of him, I think of him as the man who gave us Concorde, British Leyland and ICL. The first a glorious failure, the second an eventual failure, and the third a hopeless failure.
Which is probably an unusual view of him. Then again, I'm a techie ...
Did he have a hand with Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors, the other white elephant conceived in the white heat of technology?
As the daughter of true socialists Tony Benn was a hero of my wife growing up and she even kept a soft spot for him years after she inflicted me on herself. He was an excellent speaker and his heart was in the right place even if his brain wasn't.
It touches on points raised by the passing of Bob Crow the other day. The Labour movement since Tony Blair has such a small and declining smattering of people who really care about those they are supposed to represent. The march of the managerial class is relentless and there are few bastions left anywhere. Is this a good thing given that these ideas were often wrong headed? I am not sure.
Did your wife ever meet him, as he was very personable both publicly and privately - he would put his case well and argue thoughtfully and forcibly but his ideas were often built on academic theory that was not well thought out.
I agree with you regarding the managerial class who seem to expand exponentially without achieving anything significant.
In our specialist consultancy everyone is a doer (even the MD and FD) and we encourage radical thinking to problems (both current and potential) - that it what gets us our business.
Very sad this morning. Had a huge respect for Tony Benn and think that he was a huge asset to both Parliament and his country. Even if I disagreed with the majority of his political positions I have no doubt at all that he took them because he believed they would further his fundamental beliefs which always appeared to me to see the good side of people both as individuals and communities and attempt to make things better for them.
His and my relationship - although of course I never knew him - is a classic example of two people who only want the best for their fellow man but who have radically different views on how that is best achieved. I believe that applies to most people on here as well and I think that it is something that both I and others could do well to remember using old Tony as an inspiration.
Last Night's results show the importance of concentrating one's support in the right places. Overall, UKIP outpolled the Lib Dems, but the latter won two seats.
UKIP's average support this week has been 12%, across pollsters, where it's been for a while.
As the daughter of true socialists Tony Benn was a hero of my wife growing up and she even kept a soft spot for him years after she inflicted me on herself. He was an excellent speaker and his heart was in the right place even if his brain wasn't.
It touches on points raised by the passing of Bob Crow the other day. The Labour movement since Tony Blair has such a small and declining smattering of people who really care about those they are supposed to represent. The march of the managerial class is relentless and there are few bastions left anywhere. Is this a good thing given that these ideas were often wrong headed? I am not sure.
The managerial class are probably as wrong-headed, and more venial.
How come as the non Lord Stansgate for 50 odd years his son now puts his hand up and gets the title and the dosh for turning up for daily expenses with the ermine squad? Sooner hereditary peerages are removed the better. If Tony Benn REALLY gave the title up then the title is no longer valid surely?
No.
The peerage is disclaimed in the lifetime of the holder and is dormant until the death of the former peer when normal rules of succession apply.
The new Viscount Stansgate is not entitled to claim any HoL expenses unless he becomes one of the elected hereditary peers in a Lords by-election.
As the daughter of true socialists Tony Benn was a hero of my wife growing up and she even kept a soft spot for him years after she inflicted me on herself. He was an excellent speaker and his heart was in the right place even if his brain wasn't.
It touches on points raised by the passing of Bob Crow the other day. The Labour movement since Tony Blair has such a small and declining smattering of people who really care about those they are supposed to represent. The march of the managerial class is relentless and there are few bastions left anywhere. Is this a good thing given that these ideas were often wrong headed? I am not sure.
Did your wife ever meet him, as he was very personable both publicly and privately - he would put his case well and argue thoughtfully and forcibly but his ideas were often built on acacemic theory that was not well thought out.
I agree with you regarding the managerial class who seem to expand exponentially without achieving anything significant.
In our specialist consultancy everyone is a doer (even the MD and FD) and we encourage radical thinking to problems (both current and potential) - that it what gets us our business.
An interesting man who seemed to undertake a journey over his lifetime.
When I think of him, I think of him as the man who gave us Concorde, British Leyland and ICL. The first a glorious failure, the second an eventual failure, and the third a hopeless failure.
Which is probably an unusual view of him. Then again, I'm a techie ...
Did he have a hand with Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors, the other white elephant conceived in the white heat of technology?
No idea, although he was around at that sort of time in a role that might have made him responsible. Then again, the AGR saga lasted so long (how long from prototype to working reactor) that many politicians will have their sticky fingers over them.
Is it indeed. Has the Royal been restored ? .... on our last visit, some many decades ago, it had the feel of a grand old lady who'd seen better days and was living off the faded glories of years gone by.
I also recall the Guildhall round the corner was a rather splendid building and also a church in the adjacent square had much merit.
Restored but not ruined- a wonderful painted safety curtain
Very sad to hear that Tony Benn has died. Unlike the present generation, he was a conviction politician of the left. It would be interesting to speculate what sort of career he would have had, had he not successfully pressed for the Peerage Act allowing him to disclaim his.
A Good Theory or Not? Will it lead to a LD switchback from Labour?
"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have quietly aligned policy pledges in more than a dozen areas, prompting speculation that they are preparing the ground for a coalition after next year’s general election.
Ed Miliband’s decision this week to effectively rule out a referendum on the EU if he becomes prime minister was the latest in a series of moves which bring the two parties more closely into line.
While Tory strategists admit they struggle to envisage reaching agreement on plans for another five years of power-sharing with the Lib Dems, Labour now agrees with Nick Clegg’s party on a broad range of issues.
An analysis by the New Statesman identifies 14 areas where Labour and the Lib Dems have converged, including cutting pensioner benefits, reducing the voting age to 16 and a mansion tax on expensive homes.
Others are preserving the Human Rights Act, introducing new green energy targets and restricting the ability of free schools to hire whoever they want.
Senior Labour figures are split over whether to prepare for the possibility of a pact – something Gordon Brown’s government failed to do in 2010, making it easier for the Lib Dems to reach an agreement with the Conservatives.
Lord Adonis, the shadow minister for infrastructure, has called publicly for the party to start planning for a deal, but Harriet Harman, the deputy leader, has dismissed such calls, suggesting it could prevent some Lib Dem voters from switching to Labour.
Tony Benn was also opposed to the EU. So was Bob Crow, come to think of it.
Two or three decades back while looking for an 18th birthday present for a friend, I ran into Tony Benn signing his diaries in Dillons. He was kind enough to write half a page with his red biro. Couldn't make out a bloody word!
Sad news re Tony Benn. He was a rare politician who stood by his principles, hence the opprobrium he still receives from those on the left who apostatised from what they claimed were their fundamental convictions, or those who consistently advocated a less intellectually coherent alternative. While I despise his socialist principles, the third rate advocates of the "third way" that have since taken over the British Left since his retreat from public life do not measure up to his high standards.
I feel it more likely that @Stuart_Dickson will be dancing the fandango in celebration of a triumphant NO victory on the 18th September than I would be appending my hand to such an instrument.
On the other hand I might endeavour to persuade Mrs JackW to disclaim an interest in female foot attire .... Hhmm .... back to Stuart dancing I fear ....
Sky News and the Beeb both reporting that one of the four fatalities in the Norfolk helicopter crash is Conservative life peer, donor and Ulster's richest man Lord Ballyedmund.
Ed Miliband was mentioned in one of Tony Benn's mid 90's memoires favourably as someone who was more like his dad than his elder brother. I think he helped tiding up TB's historic records.
Do you think Ed would be where he is today without having been Tony's intern?
Ed Miliband was mentioned in one of Tony Benn's mid 90'd memoires favourably as someone who was more like his dad than his elder brother. I think he helped tiding up TB's historic records.
Do you think Ed would be where he is today without having been Tony's intern?
That had an effect, but much more was their dad's friendship with Benn and others.
They stood on the shoulders of others to work their way up the greasy pole. Perhaps that's why they're both not very good.
Very sad this morning. Had a huge respect for Tony Benn and think that he was a huge asset to both Parliament and his country. Even if I disagreed with the majority of his political positions I have no doubt at all that he took them because he believed they would further his fundamental beliefs which always appeared to me to see the good side of people both as individuals and communities and attempt to make things better for them.
His and my relationship - although of course I never knew him - is a classic example of two people who only want the best for their fellow man but who have radically different views on how that is best achieved. I believe that applies to most people on here as well and I think that it is something that both I and others could do well to remember using old Tony as an inspiration.
RIP Mr Benn.
That's right, and I won't add much. I knew him slightly - a few chats and friendly nods - but what really stood out were his good manners and interest in ideas and policies without any personal angle. Both are good examples regardless of one's detailed views on nationalisation of energy or whatever - without a degree of mutual respect and interest in ideas we don't get anywhere at all.
Bob Crow was also pro death penalty - not a common view on the left and one that I totally oppose.
You will find that Bob Crow would have been supported in his belief by many of the C2, D and Es. Often they take a more 'earthy' and practical view of such matters and tend not to agonise over such 'niceties'.
Mr. Observer, one suspects the main bone of contention when Blair goes will be whether the right or left dislike him more.
I believe he'll be more widely loathed than Brown. The left will wish to repudiate him because of Iraq and courting the right/centre vote, the right for being leftwing and giving away half the rebate/telling the Commons a load of bullshit over Iraq.
Who are the big beasts of the left now? The famous, in-the-media and known-to-the-public unreconstructed, unrepentant socialists?
I'm not sure even Ken Livingstone fits the bill.
So we have Owen Jones, who I find difficult to take seriously, and who else?
The Bennite left lost the argument, but not before it had helped to destroy so many of the very communities and people it claimed to be standing up for.
Tories mourn the passing of firebrand, no compromise left wingers because they know they are unelectable!
Slightly better to mourn his passing rather than throw parties on the passing of a right wing 'firebrand' who was electable.
I agree. But let's see what happens when Tony Blair pops his clogs.
I think when that happens, there'll be equal measures of madness from both sides. I know Tories who quite like him, and die hard Labourites who'll be dancing on his grave!
Who are the big beasts of the left now? The famous, in-the-media and known-to-the-public unreconstructed, unrepentant socialists?
I'm not sure even Ken Livingstone fits the bill.
So we have Owen Jones, who I find difficult to take seriously, and who else?
George Galloway - principled Left but in his own inimitable way.
Yep, true enough. And (in my opinion) Galloway's as mad as a box of frogs. And that's perhaps the problem; it's far too easy for all of us to be narrow minded, and not to open ourselves up to differing opinions. When Galloway speaks I automatically take the opposite view. Which perhaps says more about me than him.
On another note, Guido has a nice and simple tribute to Benn.
Tories mourn the passing of firebrand, no compromise left wingers because they know they are unelectable!
Slightly better to mourn his passing rather than throw parties on the passing of a right wing 'firebrand' who was electable.
I agree. But let's see what happens when Tony Blair pops his clogs.
I think when that happens, there'll be equal measures of madness from both sides. I know Tories who quite like him, and die hard Labourites who'll be dancing on his grave!
I'm sure that's right. In terms of divisiveness TB is right up there with Mrs T.
Tories mourn the passing of firebrand, no compromise left wingers because they know they are unelectable!
Slightly better to mourn his passing rather than throw parties on the passing of a right wing 'firebrand' who was electable.
I agree. But let's see what happens when Tony Blair pops his clogs.
I think when that happens, there'll be equal measures of madness from both sides. I know Tories who quite like him, and die hard Labourites who'll be dancing on his grave!
I'm sure that's right. In terms of divisiveness TB is right up there with Mrs T.
Love or loathe him, there's no denying that he's still big box office. He gets everywhere, popping up in Israel this week with Cameron. He's done alright for himself since bailing out of being PM.
I think, though, that he'll go through a difficult time, when, or even if Chilcott gets released. I don't doubt he'll ride it out.
Tories mourn the passing of firebrand, no compromise left wingers because they know they are unelectable!
Slightly better to mourn his passing rather than throw parties on the passing of a right wing 'firebrand' who was electable.
I agree. But let's see what happens when Tony Blair pops his clogs.
I'm not sure the partiers will be exclusively, or even mainly, on the right.
You surely can't be implying that Cammie and most of the chumocracy are second rate Blair impersonators?
What on earth would make you think that?
Tony Blair's misleading lesson
They call Tony Blair the master and quote from his book. But Tories should beware the ex-PM's own hype
It's love. "I love A Journey," Michael Gove has confessed to this newspaper. Tony Blair's memoirs are like no other book he has ever read, he declared. And Gove's passion is shared by many in the cabinet. David Cameron has admitted how much he enjoyed the book; George Osborne is said to have an audio version, which allows him to hear the author telling his story in his own voice. At No 10 and No 11 Blair is known as "The Master".
Lots of rumours coming out about the Malaysian plane flight. The latest is that it was tracked heading towards the Andaman Islands in the Indian Ocean.
I'm tempted to file this under the same heading as all the previous claims, but something about this feels intriguing ...
Love or loathe him, there's no denying that he's still big box office. He gets everywhere, popping up in Israel this week with Cameron. He's done alright for himself since bailing out of being PM.
If Blair has 'done alright' for himself since leaving office, what exactly would he have had to have done to have 'done well' for himself?
Tories mourn the passing of firebrand, no compromise left wingers because they know they are unelectable!
Slightly better to mourn his passing rather than throw parties on the passing of a right wing 'firebrand' who was electable.
I agree. But let's see what happens when Tony Blair pops his clogs.
I'd imagine that the right, and most on the left, will pay their respects and move on. A few - most likely on the left fringes - will celebrate. Which says something about them as individuals, and perhaps the attitude of their fellow travellers, but very little about any mainstream parties or political beliefs
I've just been reading about a rift between the Google founding partners over Sergei Brin's affair with a younger employee. Apparently, his wife found out by reading suspicious texts on his (presumably Google Android) phone. This is the guy who founded Google. Biggest internet company in the world. Famous for snooping on its users. There's some irony involved here.
Love or loathe him, there's no denying that he's still big box office. He gets everywhere, popping up in Israel this week with Cameron. He's done alright for himself since bailing out of being PM.
If Blair has 'done alright' for himself since leaving office, what exactly would he have had to have done to have 'done well' for himself?
Is there still such a thing as Blairism? Labour seem to have largely repudiated it although they do not have a clear alternative. There are still some elements of Bliarite thinking in the tories, especially in education and health but for one of our most electorally successful politicians Blair seems to have left a very modest mark compared to, say, Thatcher.
His agenda of maintaining and yet reforming public sector services utilising the efficiency and innovation of the private sector to deliver them is still relevant although it has very few believers in either party. I am not saying his solutions were the right ones or that the implementation was anything other than incompetent but as the squeeze on the public sector gets ever tighter over the next decade and yet the needs to be met get greater too I suspect these ideas will come back in one form or another.
I'm somewhat surprised he hasn't featured in a private eye lookalike by now considering his remarkable resemblance to a certain 'pickled' politician in that photo.
Mr. L, in foreign policy liberal interventionism is not only not copied by anyone, it's actively been run away from. Even in Syria after the use of chemical weapons no action was taken. That was partly due to MIliband playing politics over military action (both sides actually wanted us to do something and danced on the head of a pin over specifics), but it's undoubtedly true that in politics and the country the mood is more against general military intervention than it has been for a long time.
Turns out a prime minister lying to the Commons ahead of a vote on war didn't go down very well.
The Spectator have put a 2009 Tony Benn interview online:
‘My mother and father were both Congregationalists,’ he says, ‘and Congregationalism is interesting because everybody has a hotline to the Almighty, you don’t need a Bishop to help you.’ So no hierarchies, just trust the people? ‘Yes. We used to read the Bible every night and my mother told me that the Bible is the story of the conflict between the Kings who had power and the Prophets who preached righteousness. She taught me to support the Prophets against the Kings, you see?’ I nod. ‘Well, I’ve believed that ever since.
Putting the LD gain in Canterbury in context: They had a 5.8% margin in 2014 over the Conservatives compared to a 21.8% margin in 2007 and a 39.8% margin in 2003.
So a LD by-election gain relative to a disasterous 2011 result when they lost by 2.2%. Doesn't count for much.
In as much as there is such a thing as 'Clintonism' considering that all Blair ever did was import a particular method and style of focus grouping and triangulation in place of any philosophical or moral underpinnings to his actions. If all your policies are designed around spin and wrongfooting your opponents by moving onto their ground, while satisfying powerful interests to ensure the smooth implementation of policies they will find most agreeable then that could be defined as Blairism. It was remarkably effective but that electoral effectiveness must still to be measured by the opposition it was up against to properly gauge it. A chimp with a red rosette could have beaten Major in 97 nor did the tory party move on to any particularly electable leaders after he was gone. Quite the reverse in fact.
Comments
March 7-8 2013
Well: 30
Badly;61
DK:10
March 6-7 2014
Well:41
Badly:49
DK:10
32% feel he is right to offer a referendum conditionally.
43% believe he should have offered one anyway
7% say he should not have offered one.
18% DK
Reaction to how people now think of EdM
More positive: 11%
More negative: 17%
No difference, have a positive opinion of him and still do:14$
No difference, have a negative opinion of him and still do: 39%
DK: 19
One of Labour's problems has been that they have not wanted to talk about their time in office. They've done very little to defend it, or to explain what they would do differently next time. It's as though they'd rather people would pretend it never happened.
The Lib Dems have a few good stories to tell about the Coalition. They have a record to defend.
Lock up your sandals ......
Two 30-somethings without a mobile phone?
That could easily change, even as soon as next week.
Meantime Labour's lead deserves to fall. My MP sent me a copy of their housing policy, which I have to say I mistook for a Bow Group pamphlet (or at least the Bow Group of an earlier generation). I don't suppose that "the worst housing problem for a generation" is going to be fixed by tax incentives to private landlords to create longer tenancies. (Nor that quoting the very different French housing market is at all relevant.) And neither, I suspect, do they. In truth, there are votes in making people homeless.
So here's a first from IA. A policy suggestion that could as easily be taken up by UKIP as by the Lib Dems. Replace the appointed Lords by a revising chamber elected by freeholders (and leaseholds over a certain amount, possibly). You don't have to be Disraeli to know a thing or two about fancy franchises!
Someone recently mentioned a Tory woman MPs idea for each constituency to elect two MPs, one male and one female. If you're going to have different franchises for each chamber perhaps one option would be to have a House of Men and a House of Women.
RIP
Labour politician Tony Benn has died, aged 88.
As an aside, on my mobile (Vodafone) I sometimes see a message saying 'ermegency calls only' or somesuch when I'm out in the wilds. Does that mean that there's signal from the cell of another provider, and it will connect to that in emergencies?
If so, it's a blooming good idea.
With the Euros not so far away, UKIP are adrift. This years narrative of UKIP dominating the poll and the Tories imploding may well have been oversold. A glimmer of hope for LDs also.
An interesting man who seemed to undertake a journey over his lifetime.
When I think of him, I think of him as the man who gave us Concorde, British Leyland and ICL. The first a glorious failure, the second an eventual failure, and the third a hopeless failure.
Which is probably an unusual view of him. Then again, I'm a techie ...
His elder son Stephen succeeds to his fathers disclaimed hereditary peerage as the third Viscount Stansgate. He is also in remainder to the Benn baronetage of The Old Knoll.
Wonderful evening last night -Tale of Two Cities at Northampton Derngate Theatre - magnificent production and cast. Must move to West end - don't miss it.
However, being a wealthy man, I felt that often he was out of touch with the actualities of those he claimed to represent and at times was more of a political theorist than realist.
But let's not pretend that as a politician he was anything other than profoundly destructive. As a cabinet minister in the 70s he was disloyal as a matter of course, while in the early 80s he advocated a brand of left-wing insanity that almost destroyed the Labour party and without question gave the Tories a free pass for the entire decade and beyond. He was certainly a conviction politician who would not compromise his beliefs, but he was wrong on just about everything that mattered. He was correct about one thing, though: it should always be about policies, not personalities; and judged on that basis throughout his career Tony Benn did a lot more harm than good. No wonder the Establishment so cherished him in his later years.
It touches on points raised by the passing of Bob Crow the other day. The Labour movement since Tony Blair has such a small and declining smattering of people who really care about those they are supposed to represent. The march of the managerial class is relentless and there are few bastions left anywhere. Is this a good thing given that these ideas were often wrong headed? I am not sure.
I also recall the Guildhall round the corner was a rather splendid building and also a church in the adjacent square had much merit.
Sooner hereditary peerages are removed the better.
If Tony Benn REALLY gave the title up then the title is no longer valid surely?
Wedgewood Benn achieved much, kept his party away from power for 18 years. Forced Labour to rethink its approach to power from 1992. Destructive yet constructive element to his career. Would disagree over his views on politics and personality, compare the strengths and weaknesses of Blair and Brown; Blair could sustain an anti-Conservative coalition better than Brown, in part his personality helped sell the policies. Brown in other respects was a vote killer - dour, uncharismatic- yet were Labour's politics very different under the two men?
Benn was very a interesting speaker - shame about his analytical skills.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Tony-Benn-dies-Bristol-MP-passes-away-aged-88/story-20810343-detail/story.html
Did your wife ever meet him, as he was very personable both publicly and privately - he would put his case well and argue thoughtfully and forcibly but his ideas were often built on academic theory that was not well thought out.
I agree with you regarding the managerial class who seem to expand exponentially without achieving anything significant.
In our specialist consultancy everyone is a doer (even the MD and FD) and we encourage radical thinking to problems (both current and potential) - that it what gets us our business.
His and my relationship - although of course I never knew him - is a classic example of two people who only want the best for their fellow man but who have radically different views on how that is best achieved. I believe that applies to most people on here as well and I think that it is something that both I and others could do well to remember using old Tony as an inspiration.
RIP Mr Benn.
UKIP's average support this week has been 12%, across pollsters, where it's been for a while.
I met him once, by accident, at a train station. He was a lovely guy and very talkative. A towering figure of his age - and a real gent.
The peerage is disclaimed in the lifetime of the holder and is dormant until the death of the former peer when normal rules of succession apply.
The new Viscount Stansgate is not entitled to claim any HoL expenses unless he becomes one of the elected hereditary peers in a Lords by-election.
Miliband was his intern?
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/79539936606/ed-miliband-statement-on-tony-benn
Wasn't Dungeness over twelve years late?
RIP Tony Benn.
Caught the last hour of P2. Currently writing the pre-qualifying piece, should be up reasonably shortly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1Khj7ZHMSo
Baron Altrincham, by John Grigg, from 1963 to 2001
Viscount Hailsham and Baron Hailsham, by Quintin Hogg (later Baron Hailsham of St Marylebone) from 1963 to 2001
Earl of Home, Lord Home, Lord Dunglass and Baron Douglas, by Alec Douglas-Home (later
Baron Home of the Hirsel) from 1963 to 1995
Viscount Stansgate, by Tony Benn from 1963 to 2014
Baron Monkswell, by William Collier, from 1964 to 1984
Baron Beaverbrook, by Max Aitken, from 1964 to 1985
Baron Southampton, by Charles FitzRoy, from 1964 to 1989
Earl of Sandwich, Viscount Hinchingbrooke and Baron Montagu, by Victor Montagu, from 1964 to 1995
Baron Fraser of Allander, by Hugh Fraser, from 1966 to 1987
Earl of Durham, Viscount Lambton and Baron Durham, by Antony Lambton, from 1970 to 2006
Baron Sanderson of Ayot, by Alan Sanderson, since 1971
Baron Silkin, by Arthur Silkin, from 1972 to 2001
Baron Reith, by Christopher Reith, since 1972
Baron Archibald, by Christopher Archibald from 1975 to 1996
Baron Merthyr, by Trevor Lewis, since 1977
Earl of Selkirk and Lord Daer and Shortcleuch, by Lord James Douglas-Hamilton (later Baron Selkirk of Douglas), since 1994
Viscount Camrose and Baron Camrose, by Michael Berry (later Baron Hartwell), from 1995 to 2001
Baron Silkin, by Christopher Silkin, since 2002
Sources - Burkes and Wiki.
"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have quietly aligned policy pledges in more than a dozen areas, prompting speculation that they are preparing the ground for a coalition after next year’s general election.
Ed Miliband’s decision this week to effectively rule out a referendum on the EU if he becomes prime minister was the latest in a series of moves which bring the two parties more closely into line.
While Tory strategists admit they struggle to envisage reaching agreement on plans for another five years of power-sharing with the Lib Dems, Labour now agrees with Nick Clegg’s party on a broad range of issues.
An analysis by the New Statesman identifies 14 areas where Labour and the Lib Dems have converged, including cutting pensioner benefits, reducing the voting age to 16 and a mansion tax on expensive homes.
Others are preserving the Human Rights Act, introducing new green energy targets and restricting the ability of free schools to hire whoever they want.
Senior Labour figures are split over whether to prepare for the possibility of a pact – something Gordon Brown’s government failed to do in 2010, making it easier for the Lib Dems to reach an agreement with the Conservatives.
Lord Adonis, the shadow minister for infrastructure, has called publicly for the party to start planning for a deal, but Harriet Harman, the deputy leader, has dismissed such calls, suggesting it could prevent some Lib Dem voters from switching to Labour.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2580598/Suspicions-Lib-Lab-pact-merge-policies-Milibands-decision-reject-EU-referendum-latest-series-moves-bring-parties-line.html#ixzz2vvLQbcS6
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/australia-pre-qualifying.html
Two or three decades back while looking for an 18th birthday present for a friend, I ran into Tony Benn signing his diaries in Dillons. He was kind enough to write half a page with his red biro. Couldn't make out a bloody word!
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/94876/response/237777/attach/4/FOI 73767 Peerage documents.pdf
I'm not sure even Ken Livingstone fits the bill.
So we have Owen Jones, who I find difficult to take seriously, and who else?
Bob Crow was also pro death penalty - not a common view on the left and one that I totally oppose.
I feel it more likely that @Stuart_Dickson will be dancing the fandango in celebration of a triumphant NO victory on the 18th September than I would be appending my hand to such an instrument.
On the other hand I might endeavour to persuade Mrs JackW to disclaim an interest in female foot attire .... Hhmm .... back to Stuart dancing I fear ....
Huge sympathies for Mary and all three children.
Do you think Ed would be where he is today without having been Tony's intern?
They stood on the shoulders of others to work their way up the greasy pole. Perhaps that's why they're both not very good.
I believe he'll be more widely loathed than Brown. The left will wish to repudiate him because of Iraq and courting the right/centre vote, the right for being leftwing and giving away half the rebate/telling the Commons a load of bullshit over Iraq.
Brown will have supporters on the left, I think.
On another note, Guido has a nice and simple tribute to Benn.
An object lesson in how to make the spin from Clegg's ostrich faction seem even more irrelevant than usual.
I think, though, that he'll go through a difficult time, when, or even if Chilcott gets released. I don't doubt he'll ride it out.
What on earth would make you think that?
Lots of rumours coming out about the Malaysian plane flight. The latest is that it was tracked heading towards the Andaman Islands in the Indian Ocean.
I'm tempted to file this under the same heading as all the previous claims, but something about this feels intriguing ...
Arts Emergency @artsemergency 1h
Tony Benn's five questions to ask the powerful: pic.twitter.com/J9rynLcvFn
http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/cheshire-east-crewe-west-result-lab-hold.html
Maybe the last of the pipe smoking politicians.
This is the guy who founded Google. Biggest internet company in the world. Famous for snooping on its users. There's some irony involved here.
Please take my amusement at your petulant response in the spirit it was intended.
I hope Arthur Scargill is looking after himself....
His agenda of maintaining and yet reforming public sector services utilising the efficiency and innovation of the private sector to deliver them is still relevant although it has very few believers in either party. I am not saying his solutions were the right ones or that the implementation was anything other than incompetent but as the squeeze on the public sector gets ever tighter over the next decade and yet the needs to be met get greater too I suspect these ideas will come back in one form or another.
#UKIP votes:
28.2% Chertsey Meads, Runnymede
26.8% Crewe W
23.0% Heanor W, Amber Valley
18.1% Barham Downs, Canterbury
13.3% Farley, Luton
Equalls an average of 21.96% over five districts. a far cry from Ipsos-Mori and co
http://www.itv.com/news/2013-11-01/toronto-mayor-stays-resolute-amid-crack-pipe-allegations/
I'm somewhat surprised he hasn't featured in a private eye lookalike by now considering his remarkable resemblance to a certain 'pickled' politician in that photo.
Turns out a prime minister lying to the Commons ahead of a vote on war didn't go down very well.
‘My mother and father were both Congregationalists,’ he says, ‘and Congregationalism is interesting because everybody has a hotline to the Almighty, you don’t need a Bishop to help you.’ So no hierarchies, just trust the people? ‘Yes. We used to read the Bible every night and my mother told me that the Bible is the story of the conflict between the Kings who had power and the Prophets who preached righteousness. She taught me to support the Prophets against the Kings, you see?’ I nod. ‘Well, I’ve believed that ever since.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/tony-benn-1925-2014-a-politician-who-actually-believes-in-people/
So a LD by-election gain relative to a disasterous 2011 result when they lost by 2.2%. Doesn't count for much.