politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 13th 2014
Heanor West on Amber Valley (Labour Defence)
Result of last election (2012): Conservative 24, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 838 (56%), Conservative 381 (26%), British National Party 272 (18%). Labour GAIN from British National Party with a majority of 457 (30%).
Candidates duly nominated:
Comments
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First
Looks like a bumper Thursday night of local by elections, many thanks once again to Harry Hayfield for his weekly round up article.0 -
North Korea like numbers for Labour in Longview on Knowsley. They must be working their usual magic there.0
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Apparently they have two Labour candidates? Spoiled for choice.MonikerDiCanio said:North Korea like numbers for Labour in Longview on Knowsley. They must be working their usual magic there.
But we'll have trouble getting a positive swing over 6% there.
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Good evening, everyone.
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular article.
F1: P1 is from half 1, P2 from half 5 (hour and a half each, of course). I doubt I'll listen to P1 (although I've been sleeping badly of late) but there's an off-chance I'll wake up in time to catch P2.
To reiterate, I've backed Williams at 5.5 to top score (Ladbrokes). That's based more on reliability than anything else, but the consensus is they're second fastest on pace too. Ferrari have fantastic drivers, but pace and fuel efficiency of the Ferrari engine are thought to be relatively weak.0 -
Adam Butler in Knowsley is the Conservative candidate. I assume he has disguised himself as the Labour candidate for his own safety ;-)0
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Butler is a Tory.NickPalmer said:
Apparently they have two Labour candidates? Spoiled for choice.MonikerDiCanio said:North Korea like numbers for Labour in Longview on Knowsley. They must be working their usual magic there.
But we'll have trouble getting a positive swing over 6% there.
http://www.knowsley.gov.uk/pdf/Longview-SPN-3-2014.pdf0 -
Come on Spurs, hold on and only 1-0 down at half time will be a relative success in this season... Kyle Naughton = Ed Miliband, out of their depth.0
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Off-topic:
Sorry Mr Hayfield!
:fpt: Why do Scots born lawyers (and Ulster-Scots [Galway-Greens (with a lickle tanblack-belt)]) think they can discuss cricket? Fules to a nation! Have they misplaced their collective "thong" following a dire curling performance...?
As for Turnip Dickson: Are you so confident as to give me a 3/2-on bet that Scotland lacks a pair? I'll place an open cheque for £1000 with PtP if you will cover it with a similar for £1500 [English Sterling].* Or are you a ranting orifice...?
* Destination to be settled after September 18th 2014. Bets can/may be covered elsewhere. Offers only open to invited participants. Soiled-Nappies are not a legal form of settlement.
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Area and stats for the voters of Longview Knowsley below:
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/9032.kml
http://boundaryassistant.org/census/censusstats.htm?w=E05000870
First time the Tory Party have managed to put forward a candidate for this seat for eight years.0 -
As a map geek, can I just say thanks for those links. I've just been virtually driving down the streets and having a nose around.compouter2 said:Area and stats for the voters of Longview Knowsley below:
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/9032.kml
http://boundaryassistant.org/census/censusstats.htm?w=E05000870
First time the Tory Party have managed to put forward a candidate for this seat for eight years.
Actually: I can;t say I've ever seen any election banners or signs on Streetview.0 -
2014 has been a vintage year to be a Spurs and England cricket supporter... jeez.0
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Dernbach last over, 17 needed.
Should be over in 3 balls then.0 -
I am sure I read somewhere that they have to erase or mist out any political posters, maybe wrong though.JosiasJessop said:
As a map geek, can I just say thanks for those links. I've just been virtually driving down the streets and having a nose around.compouter2 said:Area and stats for the voters of Longview Knowsley below:
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/9032.kml
http://boundaryassistant.org/census/censusstats.htm?w=E05000870
First time the Tory Party have managed to put forward a candidate for this seat for eight years.
Actually: I can;t say I've ever seen any election banners or signs on Streetview.0 -
7 to win off 1 ball... time for Dernhach to bowl a wide.....0
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Amber Valley could be interesting if the recently discussed "class" background of UKIP has any relevance.
Canterbury could be a Lib Dem gain. Is Mark Senior working hard there ?
Ludlow North. Who knows ? Mark Senior cannot be everywhere !0 -
Got my first EU election leaflet through today - SW&Gib Conservatives.0
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UK faces 'crippling' tax rises and spending cuts to fund pensions and healthcare
“We have never been in a situation like this before. It is quite possible that we will not find our way through without serious social breakdown and/or mass emigration of the most mobile and productive people,” said Mr Booth.
The report also warned that governments would not be able to grow their way out of trouble, and were too often “fixated” on short term growth. It said while the Government’s decision to move assets of the Royal Mail pension fund had reduced short-term debt measures, long-term state pension liabilities had increased.
“The Government took the assets of the Royal Mail pension fund and gave the workers promises of government pensions in return,” the report said. “The explicit government debt was reduced but future government liabilities – in this case contractual – were increased.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10693317/UK-faces-crippling-tax-rises-and-spending-cuts-to-fund-pensions-and-healthcare.html0 -
What a very poor spurs team,even my team would beat them. ;-)0
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I helped canvass in the Amber Valley ward in the last election when it was recovered from the BNP. It's certainly classic working-class ex-mining terrain - not desperately poor but very much Sun/Mirror territory.surbiton said:Amber Valley could be interesting if the recently discussed "class" background of UKIP has any relevance.
Canterbury could be a Lib Dem gain. Is Mark Senior working hard there ?
Ludlow North. Who knows ? Mark Senior cannot be everywhere !
Chertsey looks vaguely interesting for UKIP too.
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Mr. Dickson, one wonders if the obesity timebomb and life expectancy not increasing quite as much as expected might help ease (at least slightly) the pensions situation.0
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Talks a good talk does Dernbach. Pity he doesn't bowl as well.Scrapheap_as_was said:7 to win off 1 ball... time for Dernhach to bowl a wide.....
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Or maybe not ;-) spurs have just scored.Tykejohnno said:What a very poor spurs team,even my team would beat them. ;-)
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Evening. Why are Labour fielding two candidates in Knowsley? Is one a rebel/Indy Labour??0
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- "In retaliation, Russia could opt to only accept gold bullion for payment for their gas, oil and other commodity exports."
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2014/03/13/gold-flies-to-6-month-high?ref=hp
Yikes! There will be tears before bedtime.
Now, what was the name of that guy that sold all the Yookay's gold at bargain basement prices? At the time he was widely considered to be a clever man.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999–20020 -
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Anecdote alert: just been out all day at a range of work events etc etc and I can now safely say that the economy is absolutely booming down here. People getting jobs on silly money and contracts for the taking all over the shop in my business. It feels like 96, or 00, such is the crazy London "let's go for it" vibe. The abundant sunshine only helps fuel the feel good factor. If Labour can somehow squeak a win despite this they will be like pigs in the proverbial.0
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Good point. It would actually suit governments if more people ate, drank and smoked themselves to early deaths. Those people pay tons of tax into the system, but don't live long enough to ever extract much in return.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, one wonders if the obesity timebomb and life expectancy not increasing quite as much as expected might help ease (at least slightly) the pensions situation.
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I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
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Next you'll be telling us that grass is green, that the Pope is a Roman Catholic, and that England are not going to win the World Cup.fitalass said:
Yawn.
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Mr. Dickson, drinking costs more than it saves, I believe, due to the high number of drink-related cases in A&E, but smoking is quite the reverse. If we all smoked it would be terrible for our health and life expectancy, but great for state coffers.
One could argue it's socially responsible to smoke.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Dickson, winning the (rugby) world cup is still apparently Scotland's target next year. Is that more or less likely than England winning the football world cup?0 -
Just got weirder...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_story.html
The engines of a missing Malaysian airliner continued to operate for about four hours after it disappeared from radar over the Gulf of Thailand, U.S. authorities said Thursday, providing a tantalizing new lead in a case that has baffled Malaysian authorities and turned into one of the biggest aviation mysteries in history.
As a result of unspecified “new information,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said authorities searching for the plane may expand the hunt into the Indian Ocean, which extends hundreds of miles farther west.
Obama administration officials later said the new information was that the plane’s engines remained running for approximately four hours after it vanished from radar early Saturday en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.0 -
Regretably we'd all be in the "proverbial" if Labour wins in 2015.BobaFett said:Anecdote alert: just been out all day at a range of work events etc etc and I can now safely say that the economy is absolutely booming down here. People getting jobs on silly money and contracts for the taking all over the shop in my business. It feels like 96, or 00, such is the crazy London "let's go for it" vibe. The abundant sunshine only helps fuel the feel good factor. If Labour can somehow squeak a win despite this they will be like pigs in the proverbial.
Fortunately the sane among us recognise a pig in a poke when we see it and will be opting to keep Ball's snout out of the treasury trough.
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It's official,English prem football is crap,to many average foreign imports,especially in the defending department.0
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England to win soccer World Cup 35/1Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, drinking costs more than it saves, I believe, due to the high number of drink-related cases in A&E, but smoking is quite the reverse. If we all smoked it would be terrible for our health and life expectancy, but great for state coffers.
One could argue it's socially responsible to smoke.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Dickson, winning the (rugby) world cup is still apparently Scotland's target next year. Is that more or less likely than England winning the football world cup?
Scotland to win rugby World Cup 300/10 -
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
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Not only did Eriksen score (4-1) but I happen to know for a fact that Coral's had Benefica to score +2.5 goals at half time at 15/2. +3.5 was 40-1 which seemed value too.
Put £50 on the 15/2 that and then cancelled it before submit as felt too disloyal.
Feel even worse now.0 -
Formula 1 is back!
Practice 1 on NBC Sports Network in 3 hours :-)0 -
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 5s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%0 -
Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%0 -
Get those goalposts moving, Compouter!0
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Heanor in Amber Valley is quite important in it's way. It is a seat in a very "Old" Labour area but which has had Conservative support in the past. It will be interesting to see how UKIP do in this area and in this Parliamentary seat, which is a bellweather Conservative / Labour marginal.0
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Mr. Dickson, whilst I think Scotland's odds are about right, England look a shade short.0
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Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
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Crossover
LIB 11
KIP 100 -
And nothing about fraternal relations with your neighbours?GeoffM said:
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In all seriousness, UKIP do seem to have had a slow downwards drift in recent weeks. Is it possible the "floods caused by gay marriage" comments have had an effect? Purely anecodotally (I realise I'm one of the worst for this), I've noticed that people who aren't particularly interested in politics have mentioned those comments a LOT, far more than any of the other media "exposes" on UKIP people.0
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Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 2m
YouGov/Sun poll - Lib Dems in third, ahead of UKIP, for first time since August.0 -
Anybody fancy waiting approx 20 years for their winnings?
PP - Which university will Prince George of Cambridge attend?
St Andrews 5/2
Oxford 11/4
Cambridge 10/3
Edinburgh 5/1
York 12/1
Kings College London 16/1
Manchester 16/1
Queen Mary 16/1
Durham 20/1
Exeter 20/1
Queens Belfast 20/1
Cardiff 25/1
Glasgow 25/10 -
Ian Birrell @ianbirrell · 5 mins
More alarming news as troops mass on the Ukrainian border: opposition websites shut down in Russia http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/russia-wipes-opposition-sites-from-the-internet?bftw= …
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Sky: Helicopter crash in fog near Gillingham...0
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Something for both main parties with YouGov.
Lab relieved lead is back up but even with tonight's poll the average Lab lead for the week (though with one poll still to come) is the lowest so far this year at 4.5 (previous lowest 4.6 in week 4; all other weeks between 5.0 and 6.8).0 -
Jack W, a question is which wine would support such a mighty dish? Perhaps a Catalan Priorato, which is full bodied enough to enable savour of this epic pie. Other suggestions welcome..0
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Perhaps some Somerset Cheddar melted over it would make it more palatable.
I find hard cheese goes well with humble pie.
To start, perhaps a confit of smoked salmon and sturgeon?
Washed down with a pint of bitter, scotch on the rocks afterwards?JackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'0 -
BobaFett said:
...
Sir RoderickRodCrosby said:Just got weirder...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_story.html
The engines of a missing Malaysian airliner continued to operate for about four hours after it disappeared from radar over the Gulf of Thailand, U.S. authorities said Thursday, providing a tantalizing new lead in a case that has baffled Malaysian authorities and turned into one of the biggest aviation mysteries in history.
As a result of unspecified “new information,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said authorities searching for the plane may expand the hunt into the Indian Ocean, which extends hundreds of miles farther west.
Obama administration officials later said the new information was that the plane’s engines remained running for approximately four hours after it vanished from radar early Saturday en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
According to PPRuNe, this is based on the theory that the engine monitoring system continued to send out pings at regular intervals which were not accepted by ground stations whose function was to route authorised traffic via satellite to the engine manufacturer, in this case Rolls Royce, or its appointed agent.
Non-acceptance by the ground stations (or more strictly non response) was to be expected as the amount and frequency of data accepted for onward transmission would depend on the commercial contract the airline had with the plane's engine supplier.
Military or satellite surveillance of the area could however pick up all signals without responding to them, store the 'noise', and then filter out the data in which they are "interested" and which they will further analyse. Normally the ping transmissions of commercial airliners would be disregarded by the surveillance ops, but in this case of special interest, the background noise can be specially filtered to collect data.
The need to re-configure the surveillance filtering systems would explain the 4-5 day delay in coming up with any definitive report about receiving MH370 signals. Both Boeing and Rolls-Royce have stated that they received no signals after the plane reached its Last Known Locatin at 1.21 Local time.
Any ping message recorded by military surveillance would be unlikely to contain any data on the functioning of the engine systems. It is likely to be purely a comms inquiry with a transmitter ID.
As far as those commenting on the PPRuNe network can see there is no public announcement claiming that the pings were heard for four hours after the time of the plane's last known location.
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When did the Telegraph become a comedy publication?
- "Michael Gove is suspected of entertaining leadership ideas"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10695195/Squabbling-Tories-grow-deaf-to-their-own-good-news.html
That would herald a "Michael Foot Period" for the Tories.0 -
I think they have lost a bit of credibility - not good news for Labour as a couple of points-worth seem to have gone to the Tories, as expected. Labour's main issue is that they can't get their score sustainably past 40, so have to try and hold for a year. It is easy to push than hold.Danny565 said:In all seriousness, UKIP do seem to have had a slow downwards drift in recent weeks. Is it possible the "floods caused by gay marriage" comments have had an effect? Purely anecodotally (I realise I'm one of the worst for this), I've noticed that people who aren't particularly interested in politics have mentioned those comments a LOT, far more than any of the other media "exposes" on UKIP people.
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If the Tories were stupid enough to make either Gove or Osborne leader then all of Labour's and UKIP's Christmases will come at once.Stuart_Dickson said:When did the Telegraph become a comedy publication?
- "Michael Gove is suspected of entertaining leadership ideas"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10695195/Squabbling-Tories-grow-deaf-to-their-own-good-news.html
That would herald a "Michael Foot Period" for the Tories.
Their best bet for next leader after Boris would definitely be May in my opinion.0 -
BobaFett said:
I think they have lost a bit of credibility - not good news for Labour as a couple of points-worth seem to have gone to the Tories, as expected. Labour's main issue is that they can't get their score sustainably past 40, so have to try and hold for a year. It is easier to push than hold.Danny565 said:In all seriousness, UKIP do seem to have had a slow downwards drift in recent weeks. Is it possible the "floods caused by gay marriage" comments have had an effect? Purely anecodotally (I realise I'm one of the worst for this), I've noticed that people who aren't particularly interested in politics have mentioned those comments a LOT, far more than any of the other media "exposes" on UKIP people.
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Fair comment as usual. But I don't think anything much is happening to the Labour score (it's 38 +/- MOE in YouGov, and has been for ages); what is happening is that the Tories are nibbling back some share from UKIP. I think the "fruitcake" label is starting to be more widely accepted for the reasons Danny says. Cautionary note: this may affect what people SAY to pollsters more than it affects how they actually vote, if they start to feel voting UKIP is a bit embarrassing.MikeL said:Something for both main parties with YouGov.
Lab relieved lead is back up but even with tonight's poll the average Lab lead for the week (though with one poll still to come) is the lowest so far this year at 4.5 (previous lowest 4.6 in week 4; all other weeks between 5.0 and 6.8).
Possibly, though, we're seeing some swingback. As we've all observed, Labour hasn't swung many votes from the Tories since 2010, so swingback isn't happening there, but the Con-UKIP swing may well have some froth in it. I still think we may see a very high two-party share by next year.
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Just seen Ed Balls on BBC News, a more disingenuous individual would be hard to find.
God Help Labour if he is fronting for them on the economy.0 -
Nope, it's realization that UKIP are just like the others, an establishment party.Danny565 said:In all seriousness, UKIP do seem to have had a slow downwards drift in recent weeks. Is it possible the "floods caused by gay marriage" comments have had an effect? Purely anecodotally (I realise I'm one of the worst for this), I've noticed that people who aren't particularly interested in politics have mentioned those comments a LOT, far more than any of the other media "exposes" on UKIP people.
Farage's ludicrous actions against Bloom and the floods guy have turned off millions of potential supporters who are crying out for a party with the guts to put two fingers up to political correctness, the BBC and the metropolitan cabal who dictate our political agenda...0 -
Danny - I let Basil know of all the posts on here today discussing the imminent crossover. He hasn't took tonights Yougov too wellDanny565 said:Get those goalposts moving, Compouter!
http://ryoanimal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/mad-squirreleating-squirrels---page-2-ntme3ont.jpg0 -
Agree with all that Nick. Do Labour now have to hold for a year because they can't push their vote up?NickPalmer said:
Fair comment as usual. But I don't think anything much is happening to the Labour score (it's 38 +/- MOE in YouGov, and has been for ages); what is happening is that the Tories are nibbling back some share from UKIP. I think the "fruitcake" label is starting to be more widely accepted for the reasons Danny says. Cautionary note: this may affect what people SAY to pollsters more than it affects how they actually vote, if they start to feel voting UKIP is a bit embarrassing.MikeL said:Something for both main parties with YouGov.
Lab relieved lead is back up but even with tonight's poll the average Lab lead for the week (though with one poll still to come) is the lowest so far this year at 4.5 (previous lowest 4.6 in week 4; all other weeks between 5.0 and 6.8).
Possibly, though, we're seeing some swingback. As we've all observed, Labour hasn't swung many votes from the Tories since 2010, so swingback isn't happening there, but the Con-UKIP swing may well have some froth in it. I still think we may see a very high two-party share by next year.0 -
Possibly .... although the mind wanders to a home grown tipple to accompany such a signature Scottish dish.DavidBrackenbury said:Jack W, a question is which wine would support such a mighty dish? Perhaps a Catalan Priorato, which is full bodied enough to enable savour of this epic pie. Other suggestions welcome..
On balance I'd favour the 5 year old Thistle and Capercaillie barley wine brewed at the site of the Battle of Killiecrankie and strained through the jock straps and combinations of generations of Highland caber tossers.
Tis a dying art ....
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John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.
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I suspect it's because it's not a "controversial" opinion, which people might be willing to hold, just a self-evidentially stupid belief. People are very reluctant to associate themselves with/be perceived as stupid.Danny565 said:In all seriousness, UKIP do seem to have had a slow downwards drift in recent weeks. Is it possible the "floods caused by gay marriage" comments have had an effect? Purely anecodotally (I realise I'm one of the worst for this), I've noticed that people who aren't particularly interested in politics have mentioned those comments a LOT, far more than any of the other media "exposes" on UKIP people.
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Changes in appetite, food preference, and eating habits in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer’s diseaseJackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/73/4/371.full
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The floods caused by gay marriage is a great story.
Parties can recover from unpopularity more easily than derision.
OT: the tight public sector pay proposal does signal to me a tight austerity budget next week, perhaps off set with some tax cuts for the private sector. I personally would like to see the end of NI for the under 25s, both for employees and employers. It would make employing British school leavers better value than imported labour. A difficult one for Labour to oppose...Danny565 said:In all seriousness, UKIP do seem to have had a slow downwards drift in recent weeks. Is it possible the "floods caused by gay marriage" comments have had an effect? Purely anecodotally (I realise I'm one of the worst for this), I've noticed that people who aren't particularly interested in politics have mentioned those comments a LOT, far more than any of the other media "exposes" on UKIP people.
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Govey is a class act without peer in UK Politics today and a thouroughly decent man to boot, are you a teacher or self-interested Union lackey by any chance.Stuart_Dickson said:When did the Telegraph become a comedy publication?
- "Michael Gove is suspected of entertaining leadership ideas"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10695195/Squabbling-Tories-grow-deaf-to-their-own-good-news.html
That would herald a "Michael Foot Period" for the Tories.
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Just about the whole thing is about border issues in one way or another.Charles said:
It's actually a rather good bit of targeted writing with something for the locals and something for the expats.
I'll scan it in tomorrow if I can and post a link.
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So you're offering 4/6 on a result for which the bookies are giving c.7/2? Someone certainly lacks a pair, even your standard PB Unionist cowardy custard usually manages evens.FluffyThoughts said:
As for Turnip Dickson: Are you so confident as to give me a 3/2-on bet that Scotland lacks a pair? I'll place an open cheque for £1000 with PtP if you will cover it with a similar for £1500 [English Sterling].* Or are you a ranting orifice...?
* Destination to be settled after September 18th 2014. Bets can/may be covered elsewhere. Offers only open to invited participants. Soiled-Nappies are not a legal form of settlement.
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Out of touch twits.
Simon Lowes @simon_lowes 2m
@NHAparty How come MPs can overrule pay review body for public sector pay rise but are 'unable' to overrule their own pay rise? Disgraceful.
Andy @andyfinlay07 3m
@Jeremy_Hunt how many nurses equates to your (MPs ) 11% pay rise? probably much more than 6000 that our 1% which 80% will not get
Nick Wrack @NickWrack 10m
Public sector workers to get only 1% pay rise. NHS workers won't even get that. MPs will get 11%. Fair? #bbcnews
Larry the Cat @Number10cat 9h
Proposed NHS staff pay rise 1% Proposed MPs pay rise 11%
We're all in this together. Honest.
Ann Barnes @AnnBarnesKent 1h
NHS pay squeeze sparks strike threat. So what is happening about MPs' salary rise? That's gone quiet! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26556047 …0 -
Alarming times for Labour when a five point lead appears to be an upside outlier.fitalass said:Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%
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I'm feel sure you'll find the dietary information of considerable value in the long dark road ahead of you.Mick_Pork said:
Changes in appetite, food preference, and eating habits in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer’s diseaseJackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/73/4/371.full
Be advised we at NO feel your pain and will lend all assistance, short of hard cold cash, as you fall prey to the dreadful plight that surely awaits you.
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Heanor is fast becoming a left behind dump these days, UKIP will gain votes in a place of this nature. As for Amber Valley as a whole I suspect Labour will go well here next year the Tory MP Mills is very unimpressive and I suspect he will get his just deserts, booting out and I say this as no fan of Labour.DavidBrackenbury said:Heanor in Amber Valley is quite important in it's way. It is a seat in a very "Old" Labour area but which has had Conservative support in the past. It will be interesting to see how UKIP do in this area and in this Parliamentary seat, which is a bellweather Conservative / Labour marginal.
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Using that analogy, why not just cut their pay by 20% and take more nurses on?Tykejohnno said:John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.0 -
Are you hearing voices coming out of your your incontinent arse again old man? It must be very dark indeed when you have your head permanently stuck up your arse as you do.JackW said:
I'm feel sure you'll find the dietary information of considerable value in the long dark road ahead of you.Mick_Pork said:
Changes in appetite, food preference, and eating habits in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer’s diseaseJackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/73/4/371.full
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Yikes Mr Pork! I think I will stick to the Catalan Priorato, served with a generous slice of Jack W's pie. Not sure about his beverage of choice though... Better a life well lived than one in thrall to medical fads and fancies!Mick_Pork said:
Changes in appetite, food preference, and eating habits in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer’s diseaseJackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/73/4/371.full
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Sky: four killed in Norfolk 'copter crash...0
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Avery, let us see what happens next week before declaring what is and what isn't an outlier. MOEtastic!AveryLP said:
Alarming times for Labour when a five point lead appears to be an upside outlier.fitalass said:Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%0 -
Those who need to wait to see next week are blind, 'pouter.compouter2 said:
Avery, let us see what happens next week before declaring what is and what isn't an outlier. MOEtastic!AveryLP said:
Alarming times for Labour when a five point lead appears to be an upside outlier.fitalass said:Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%
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Calamity Clegg. Unprincipled and toxic yellow tory.
Gary Heron @HeronGary 4h
@nick_clegg when your 11% pay increase was put forward by a review body you were helpless and forced to accept it.
Dominic Corbett @gingadom 33m
@LibDems @nick_clegg A proposed11%pay rise for MPs.Think of the public sector workers with a1%or less pay rise.the people will strike back.
David Singleton @david_singleton 9h
Nick Clegg's investment in spin doctors begins to pay off... http://bit.ly/1dUqwTf0 -
Better get writing some more books :-)SeanT said:
As longtime pb-ers will recall, I've been living next door to a building site for about 4 years. It used to be a tyre garage, at the top of Parkway in Camden. Ten years ago developers got permission to build luxe private flats, then the Crash hit, and these became 100% "affordable housing" for key local workers.BobaFett said:Anecdote alert: just been out all day at a range of work events etc etc and I can now safely say that the economy is absolutely booming down here. People getting jobs on silly money and contracts for the taking all over the shop in my business. It feels like 96, or 00, such is the crazy London "let's go for it" vibe. The abundant sunshine only helps fuel the feel good factor. If Labour can somehow squeak a win despite this they will be like pigs in the proverbial.
Quietly, sneakily, sometime around 2011 the developers got new planning permission - almost unnoticed - to make these flats luxury housing once again, and all private. F*ck the key workers. Far be it from me to say someone in Camden Council Planning Department is now sitting in a new Mercedes sports.
Anyway t'other day the site manager, q nice guy, showed me around the development as it nears its conclusion. It's all very high spec with solar panels etc. I asked him how much the flats were going to sell for, he said that the "smaller" 1 bed flats will - it is rumoured - go on the market at.... £700,000.
£700k for a small one bed in Camden, albeit new and with a steel balcony. £700,000???
London is definitely in a bubble. I'm not sure it will float Cameron to victory, however.
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That's not the scary bit mr compouter,it's balls all over the place,he says something tough one minute and then jumps on the next bandwagon.compouter2 said:
Using that analogy, why not just cut their pay by 20% and take more nurses on?Tykejohnno said:John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.
If it was me,the nurses would get the pay rise.
0 -
Gove is a twit. Always was, always will be.Stuart_Dickson said:When did the Telegraph become a comedy publication?
- "Michael Gove is suspected of entertaining leadership ideas"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10695195/Squabbling-Tories-grow-deaf-to-their-own-good-news.html
That would herald a "Michael Foot Period" for the Tories.0 -
Unlike your good self I've never tried such heady anal contortions but whilst you're up your own perhaps you might massage a gland or two and come up with a ticklish new currency plan .... the penny will drop eventually.Mick_Pork said:
Are you hearing voices coming out of your your incontinent arse again old man? It must be very dark indeed when you have your head permanently stuck up your arse as you do.JackW said:
I'm feel sure you'll find the dietary information of considerable value in the long dark road ahead of you.Mick_Pork said:
Changes in appetite, food preference, and eating habits in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer’s diseaseJackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/73/4/371.full
LOOK ....
Tartan squirrel ....
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He is a politician, don't they all do that?Tykejohnno said:
he says something tough one minute and then jumps on the next bandwagon.compouter2 said:
Using that analogy, why not just cut their pay by 20% and take more nurses on?Tykejohnno said:John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.0 -
Unlike those who predicted a polling crossover would arrive last April....last July.....last October.....Mr Pole.AveryLP said:
Those who need to wait to see next week are blind, 'pouter.compouter2 said:
Avery, let us see what happens next week before declaring what is and what isn't an outlier. MOEtastic!AveryLP said:
Alarming times for Labour when a five point lead appears to be an upside outlier.fitalass said:Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%0 -
As Ave_It so memorably put it about your laughable lib dem 'predictions' you thought your arse was telling you in 2010...JackW said:
LOOK ....Mick_Pork said:
Are you hearing voices coming out of your your incontinent arse again old man? It must be very dark indeed when you have your head permanently stuck up your arse as you do.JackW said:
I'm feel sure you'll find the dietary information of considerable value in the long dark road ahead of you.Mick_Pork said:
Changes in appetite, food preference, and eating habits in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer’s diseaseJackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/73/4/371.full
Tartan squirrel ....
LOOOOOOOOOOOL!
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Politicians do,but when he could be the next chancellor = scary.compouter2 said:
He is a politician, don't they all do that?Tykejohnno said:
he says something tough one minute and then jumps on the next bandwagon.compouter2 said:
Using that analogy, why not just cut their pay by 20% and take more nurses on?Tykejohnno said:John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.
0 -
On Topic.
Thankfully for Calamity Clegg the mighty Elvis Bus Pass Party do not appear to be featuring tonight to threaten the lib dems and their growing irrelevance. "Crazy Crab" from the Loony party might have given them a scare though.
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Even people who are chancellors/PM's to be jump on bandwagons:Tykejohnno said:
Politicians do,but when he could be the next chancellor = scary.compouter2 said:
He is a politician, don't they all do that?Tykejohnno said:
he says something tough one minute and then jumps on the next bandwagon.compouter2 said:
Using that analogy, why not just cut their pay by 20% and take more nurses on?Tykejohnno said:John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/tories-will-mat.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7625873/General-Election-2010-Cameron-dismisses-claim-Tories-would-put-up-VAT.html0 -
Sadly my good friend "Ave it" has a memory as valued as a SNP independence currency plan. Whereas you memory this year will be mired in your laughable contributions laid bare by the considerable defeat of the YES losers.Mick_Pork said:
As Ave_It so memorably put it about your laughable lib dem 'predictions' you thought your arse was telling you in 2010...JackW said:
LOOK ....Mick_Pork said:
Are you hearing voices coming out of your your incontinent arse again old man? It must be very dark indeed when you have your head permanently stuck up your arse as you do.JackW said:
I'm feel sure you'll find the dietary information of considerable value in the long dark road ahead of you.Mick_Pork said:
Changes in appetite, food preference, and eating habits in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer’s diseaseJackW said:
Ah .... but added tartan squirrel brings the whole dish together to make a culinary delectation rarely found outside of three star Michelin establishments and Hamish MacBonkers Caledonian Deep Fried Truffle and Iron Bru Emporium.MonikerDiCanio said:
Swede & Bacon PiesJackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
http://www.foodily.com/r/7HzNhlDpL-swede-bacon-pies-by-bbc-good-food
"Utterly revolting !'
http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/73/4/371.full
Tartan squirrel ....
LOOOOOOOOOOOL!
0 -
Indeed. He might be so incompetent he makes a complete mess of a pasty tax, destroys the "we're all in this together" spin AND kickstarts the kippers off of 5% to where they are now.Tykejohnno said:
Politicians do,but when he could be the next chancellor = scary.compouter2 said:
He is a politician, don't they all do that?Tykejohnno said:
he says something tough one minute and then jumps on the next bandwagon.compouter2 said:
Using that analogy, why not just cut their pay by 20% and take more nurses on?Tykejohnno said:John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.
Like Osbrowne did with his omnishambles.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
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JackW, that sounds like a tasty way to get over the Indy Ref hangover on the 19th September.JackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!0 -
That's not jumping on bandwagons,thats called being broke,left by your lot.compouter2 said:
Even people who are chancellors/PM's to be jump on bandwagons:Tykejohnno said:
Politicians do,but when he could be the next chancellor = scary.compouter2 said:
He is a politician, don't they all do that?Tykejohnno said:
he says something tough one minute and then jumps on the next bandwagon.compouter2 said:
Using that analogy, why not just cut their pay by 20% and take more nurses on?Tykejohnno said:John Rentoul ✔ @JohnRentoul
I thought Ed Balls said jobs were more important than pay rises. Now he says Govt should accept pay review body recommendations.
This ed balls is scary.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/tories-will-mat.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7625873/General-Election-2010-Cameron-dismisses-claim-Tories-would-put-up-VAT.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24173270
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It's £700k for a one bedroom at "The Lexington" on Finchley Road, nowhere near a tube station, closest one Golders Green.FrancisUrquhart said:
Better get writing some more books :-)SeanT said:
As longtime pb-ers will recall, I've been living next door to a building site for about 4 years. It used to be a tyre garage, at the top of Parkway in Camden. Ten years ago developers got permission to build luxe private flats, then the Crash hit, and these became 100% "affordable housing" for key local workers.BobaFett said:Anecdote alert: just been out all day at a range of work events etc etc and I can now safely say that the economy is absolutely booming down here. People getting jobs on silly money and contracts for the taking all over the shop in my business. It feels like 96, or 00, such is the crazy London "let's go for it" vibe. The abundant sunshine only helps fuel the feel good factor. If Labour can somehow squeak a win despite this they will be like pigs in the proverbial.
Quietly, sneakily, sometime around 2011 the developers got new planning permission - almost unnoticed - to make these flats luxury housing once again, and all private. F*ck the key workers. Far be it from me to say someone in Camden Council Planning Department is now sitting in a new Mercedes sports.
Anyway t'other day the site manager, q nice guy, showed me around the development as it nears its conclusion. It's all very high spec with solar panels etc. I asked him how much the flats were going to sell for, he said that the "smaller" 1 bed flats will - it is rumoured - go on the market at.... £700,000.
£700k for a small one bed in Camden, albeit new and with a steel balcony. £700,000???
London is definitely in a bubble. I'm not sure it will float Cameron to victory, however.
As they used to say at LIFFE - "Yours!"0 -
fitalass said:
JackW, that sounds like a tasty way to get over the Indy Ref hangover on the 19th September.
JackW said:
I'm holding a referendum in Auchentennach on whether to bake a celebratory NO pie on 17th September.fitalass said:
Contents to include humble Pork pie, Swede and a wee taster of tartan squirrel.
Yumtastic !!
Does it sound as good as the humble pie you ate after your hilarious 'scottish tory surge' in 2010?
Pandatastic !!
0
