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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 13th 2014

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  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, which may not necessarily be completely barking:

    "JackArmstrong
    1:22 AM GMT [Edited]

    Scenario: Al Qaeda in Somalia coordinated the hijacking (or pilot complicity) of Flight 370, to have it go "dark" and turn to Somalia at the point where it leaves Malaysia air traffic control, simulating a catastrophic event. It turns due west and crosses the Malaysia/Thailand peninsula at low altitude, then once over the Andaman Sea, it resumes a cruising altitude of 35,000 feet -- with 8.5 hours of fuel on board at takeoff as reported by Malaysia air officials, this provides sufficient fuel to reach central Somalia at standard cruising speed of 490 knots (560 mph).

    The plane lands while it is still completely black and still nighttime in Somalia. There, it is refueled. The Somali al Qaeda place on board a nuclear device, that has been stolen from Pakistan, or from a former Soviet bloc country, or “donated” by NK – take your pick – and then at some point takes off for its real target, which could be as far as the U.S. since a fully fueled 777 can fly halfway around the world. It once again flies “dark”, then as it approaches its target, it contacts the target country, stating that it has been hijacked, has passengers on board and is running out of fuel and must land. It is permitted to enter airspace, heads for the target city and detonates the bomb low over the city."


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

    Until I read this comment it hadn't really dawned on me how dangerous it could be to have a rogue 777 hidden away somewhere. No wonder the Americans are taking such a close interest in tracking it down.

    Every flight, the pilot keys in a 4 digit code to the transponder - flight number etc.

    It is surely not beyond the wit of man to reprogram the transponders so the captured plane could approach a metro area airport pretending to be anything other than what it actually is.

    The plane needs to be found.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, which may not necessarily be completely barking:

    "JackArmstrong
    1:22 AM GMT [Edited]

    Scenario: Al Qaeda in Somalia coordinated the hijacking (or pilot complicity) of Flight 370, to have it go "dark" and turn to Somalia at the point where it leaves Malaysia air traffic control, simulating a catastrophic event. It turns due west and crosses the Malaysia/Thailand peninsula at low altitude, then once over the Andaman Sea, it resumes a cruising altitude of 35,000 feet -- with 8.5 hours of fuel on board at takeoff as reported by Malaysia air officials, this provides sufficient fuel to reach central Somalia at standard cruising speed of 490 knots (560 mph).

    The plane lands while it is still completely black and still nighttime in Somalia. There, it is refueled. The Somali al Qaeda place on board a nuclear device, that has been stolen from Pakistan, or from a former Soviet bloc country, or “donated” by NK – take your pick – and then at some point takes off for its real target, which could be as far as the U.S. since a fully fueled 777 can fly halfway around the world. It once again flies “dark”, then as it approaches its target, it contacts the target country, stating that it has been hijacked, has passengers on board and is running out of fuel and must land. It is permitted to enter airspace, heads for the target city and detonates the bomb low over the city."


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

    Until I read this comment it hadn't really dawned on me how dangerous it could be to have a rogue 777 hidden away somewhere. No wonder the Americans are taking such a close interest in tracking it down.

    Every flight, the pilot keys in a 4 digit code to the transponder - flight number etc.

    It is surely not beyond the wit of man to reprogram the transponders so the captured plane could approach a metro area airport pretending to be anything other than what it actually is.

    The plane needs to be found.
    Again covered at length on PPRuNe.

    The transponder is generally programmed to transmit the flight number (MH370 or MAS370 in this case) by the pilots at the gate before the aircraft taxis. The message it transmits however also includes a unique hardware ID registered to the aircraft hull (similar to a computer network card's MAC).

    So even if the pilots or hijackers changed the soft data the transponder could still be identified by its hard code.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How many so-called rogue states could the plane have plausibly reached?

    Maybe not North Korea, but Burma or Iran?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited March 2014
    Thanks Fox for that link to a classic example of Owen Jones rhetoric meeting cold hard facts. ;-) The most interesting and pertinent little titbit in tonight's whole debate was right at the end when Andrew Neil touched on the fact that real wages have been in decline for over a decade. And it was shame that the debate ended before the guests on This Week could really chew the fat over this issue, and more importantly, the reasons behind this growing equality. The fact is that most of the Unions support our membership of the EU, but as Michael Portillo pointed out, the impact of a free labour market/with far greater mobility of Labour has had a big impact in this area and definitely on wages.

    Owen Jones dismissed this, but again, his irony meter was switched off when he failed to make link with a decade of increased EU immigration as he complained of in work benefits, and also a dependence on cheap credit during the same decade. Owen's answer, he dismissed Portillo's worry of strong Unions delivering better wages but less jobs as a result... And Jones also alluded to Norway and one or two other Scandinavian countries being able to have their cake and eat with both better wages and jobs. IIRC, and I was surprised, someone posted figures suggesting that Germany also has suffered from a wages decline/stagnation in recent years. But over to the Libdems and Labour on their crusade to keep us in the EU without any honest debate or a referendum at the end of it.

    Owen Jones is a darling, isn't he?

    Surprised he was willing to have another go after being skewered by Neil in the past:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSC3RMstJl8

    Good on him for having the brass neck for another appearance.

    But my thoughts were much the same. I remember the tree day week, and the miners strike of 83-4. I do not need a lecture from Jones on what it was all about!


    fitalass said:

    Avery, I got caught up following the local by-election results on twitter while watching Owen Jones trying to lecture Michael Portillo, Andrew Neil and Alan Johnson on the importance and contribution of Unions. Some interesting moments, especially when you see Jones (born 1984) straying onto the miners strikes. I don't think he could see how ironic it was for him to preach to three gentleman who were actually involved in politics, unions and journalism during this actual period of Union history the 80's . :)

    SNIP



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The craziest thing I've heard for years is the reason pilots are apparently giving for being able to turn off transponders.

    Privacy.

    I'm sorry, but the potential wellbeing of hundreds of passengers is more important than some outdated notion of pilot "privacy".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    AndyJS said:

    The craziest thing I've heard for years is the reason pilots are apparently giving for being able to turn off transponders.

    Privacy.

    I'm sorry, but the potential wellbeing of hundreds of passengers is more important than some outdated notion of pilot "privacy".

    Privacy to do what? They don't own the bloody thing!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited March 2014
    MrJones said:

    IRS there, Luton here, people are going to miss the whole democracy thing once it's gone

    I've found tonight's results quite uplifting.

    I think Barham Downs is my favourite. Canterbury is on paper a safe Conservative seat, but if UKIP can magic ~20% out of nowhere, which they clearly can, a lot of these safe seat MPs are going to spend next year worrying about losing their seats in 2015.

    To stop the government passing powers over Justice and Home Affairs to Brussels the voters need to frighten Labour MPs too, but it does look at least possible.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The craziest thing I've heard for years is the reason pilots are apparently giving for being able to turn off transponders.

    Privacy.

    I'm sorry, but the potential wellbeing of hundreds of passengers is more important than some outdated notion of pilot "privacy".

    Privacy to do what? They don't own the bloody thing!
    You couldn't make it up - it's as if they're piloting their own private two-seater and they don't want busybodies to be able to track them around the skies.

    The fact that transponders can still be turned off after 9/11 is almost unbelievable.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AveryLP said:



    Again covered at length on PPRuNe.

    The transponder is generally programmed to transmit the flight number (MH370 or MAS370 in this case) by the pilots at the gate before the aircraft taxis. The message it transmits however also includes a unique hardware ID registered to the aircraft hull (similar to a computer network card's MAC).

    So even if the pilots or hijackers changed the soft data the transponder could still be identified by its hard code.

    Presumably the transponder "hard code" could be reprogrammed/replaced if the aircraft was first stolen and landed in an unknown location...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited March 2014
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    We have now arrived at the point that Obamacare does not resemble at all the bill passed by Congress. The White House has unilaterally changed Obamacare almost 30 times.

    We were told that the employer mandate and individual mandate were essential to Obamacare, and the administration argued to the Supreme Court that the tax was essential.

    The employer mandate was meant to begin in fall 2014. It has been postponed twice, and now will not kick in until after the 2016 presidential election.

    The Obama folks insist they have not repealed the individual mandate. This forces everyone to either buy health insurance or pay a tax. The government calls this the 'shared responsibility payment'.

    There is a form you can fill out to apply for an exemption from the tax for various reasons.

    There were 13 distinct exemptions. Sometime in late December - very quietly - a 14th was added.

    http://marketplace.cms.gov/getofficialresources/publications-and-articles/hardship-exemption.pdf

    13 says You received a notice saying that your current health insurance plan is being cancelled, and you consider the other plans available unaffordable. and asks you to submit with your application Copy of notice of cancellation.

    14 says You experienced another hardship in obtaining health insurance. and asks you to Please submit documentation if possible.

    So essentially the administration has gutted Obamacare on its own. With the addition of 14 the individual mandate is essentially dead.

    Has anyone been sacked/jailed over the IRS business?

    During an interview on Super Bowl Sunday Obama said that there was not a smidgen of evidence of wrong ding at the IRS - bone headed actions, but that's all.

    That was surprising, as there is an ongoing thorough investigation into the IRS scandal.

    In fact it is so thorough that the investigators have yet to interview any of the groups targeted by the IRS.

    The woman appointed to lead the investigation was a major money raiser for Obama, a bundler.

    I think we can all see were this is going.

    As if that's not bad enough, several Democratic lawmakers, including Chuck Schumer, have written to the IRS asking them to formally codify their process of harrassing conservative groups.

    http://aclj.org/free-speech-2/left-demands-irs-redouble-targeting-tea-party-and-conservative-groups
    Brazen. Lets just hope they get punished at the voting booth. Having the taxman take sides in party politics is not on.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RodCrosby said:

    AveryLP said:



    Again covered at length on PPRuNe.

    The transponder is generally programmed to transmit the flight number (MH370 or MAS370 in this case) by the pilots at the gate before the aircraft taxis. The message it transmits however also includes a unique hardware ID registered to the aircraft hull (similar to a computer network card's MAC).

    So even if the pilots or hijackers changed the soft data the transponder could still be identified by its hard code.

    Presumably the transponder "hard code" could be reprogrammed/replaced if the aircraft was first stolen and landed in an unknown location...
    Yes. It can be done by mechanics in a ground service and is done when, for example, a major repair or upgrade is made to the hull or systems. From what I have read it would be very difficult (if not impossible) to make such a change in flight. The pilots consider this so improbable that they have dismissed it as a scenario which should be seriously considered.

    It would involve getting into the electonics and system area in the hold. A trapdoor from the cabin does allow this and there has been some discussion about the need to secure the trapdoor but no one is seriously arguing that someone will have gained entry to the systems area on MH370.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    Another thing I can't understand is why it isn't standard practice for the crew to issue some sort of "everything's okay" message or signal at regular intervals such as every 20 or 30 minutes.

    The absence of such a communication would be understood by everyone to signal that something extremely negative had occurred: either a hijacking or severe mechanical problem.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AveryLP said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, which may not necessarily be completely barking:

    "JackArmstrong
    1:22 AM GMT [Edited]


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

    Until I read this comment it hadn't really dawned on me how dangerous it could be to have a rogue 777 hidden away somewhere. No wonder the Americans are taking such a close interest in tracking it down.

    Every flight, the pilot keys in a 4 digit code to the transponder - flight number etc.

    It is surely not beyond the wit of man to reprogram the transponders so the captured plane could approach a metro area airport pretending to be anything other than what it actually is.

    The plane needs to be found.
    Again covered at length on PPRuNe.

    The transponder is generally programmed to transmit the flight number (MH370 or MAS370 in this case) by the pilots at the gate before the aircraft taxis. The message it transmits however also includes a unique hardware ID registered to the aircraft hull (similar to a computer network card's MAC).

    So even if the pilots or hijackers changed the soft data the transponder could still be identified by its hard code.

    As an I.T. man of several decades experience, including much networking and security, your analogy of a computer network card is unfortunate, and not reassuring.

    The transponder is a piece of hardware / firmware / software. By definition it can be hacked.

    The problem would be the unique hardware ID registered to the airframe. I have no feel for how carefully this is checked by various radars around the world. Does it get checked for validity, such as does the flight number match the airline, aircraft type etc?

    I know we're getting into ludicrous speculation here, and it's silly - but it's fun.

    My personal hunch is that it's down in the ocean, just not found yet. The longer it is unfound, the smaller the debris field will be.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    CBS leading with "evidence" of flight into Indian Ocean...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    On transponders, again from what I have read on PPRuNe, the procedure for activating the transponder to send an emergency code, is to turn a rotary dial to a standby position (code 7000) and then once it has fed back its standby status to make two further rotary dial settings to the code desired (these have been given but I don't remember them and the moderators deleted the info quickly for security reasons although I suspect it is available in the public domain to those who care to look hard enough).

    The question is why the transponders did not transmit after the plane reached its last known location as detected by commercial radar.

    One suggestion is that the pilots or hijackers must have reset the rotary dial as it is not reasonably possible to accidentally cause the rotary dial to reset, say by falling on it.

    Another theory is that the pilots reset to standby but were incapicated by hypoxia before being able to set it to transmit an emergency code. Apparently there is a precedent for this scenario in a previous crash.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Totally agree, every day we are being fed yet 'new information/data' that is being dripped out by various countries involved in the search. Yesterday it was China and military satellite pictures/a sighting by a New Zealand worker on an oil rig that pointed in one direction. Today, its the US, and a focus now pointing in the direction of an area in the Indian Ocean. But if this plane had turned around before heading in a totally different flight path from its original plan for some reason, why no contact with Malaysian or Vietnamese air traffic control?

    Considering the sheer size of the search operation and global technology deployed across vast swathes of sea and Ocean in the last week, its amazing that no one has spotted any debris from the missing plane in some very busy shipping lanes no matter how far of course its travelled? Isn't it now time to look across land which is rich in mountainous areas and jungle, and that might easily hide a plane crash of this magnitude while not setting off the transponder on impact as it might do if the plane had ditched in the sea? But either there or the South China Sea?
    Tim_B said:

    RodCrosby said:

    fitalass said:
    Read the articles, they've tracked it apparently.
    The ACARS was pinging the satellite, even though Malaysian Airlines hadn't purchased a subscription for their planes to send actual data...
    The talking heads on Al Jazeera, CNN, and Fox - and the initial Wall Street Journal article - talked as if there were 3 distinct transmissions -transponders, ACARS, and the engine data, all independent, and apparently only the engines were still pinging the equivalent of "I'm here and ready to send".

    I don't know if that is indeed the case. The longer this goes without much new information, the more confusing all the speculation gets. The other fact is that there is no real leadership on this, and the various countries fighting like ferrets in a sack doesn't help either.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Tim_B said:

    AveryLP said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, which may not necessarily be completely barking:

    "JackArmstrong
    1:22 AM GMT [Edited]


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

    Until I read this comment it hadn't really dawned on me how dangerous it could be to have a rogue 777 hidden away somewhere. No wonder the Americans are taking such a close interest in tracking it down.

    Every flight, the pilot keys in a 4 digit code to the transponder - flight number etc.

    It is surely not beyond the wit of man to reprogram the transponders so the captured plane could approach a metro area airport pretending to be anything other than what it actually is.

    The plane needs to be found.
    Again covered at length on PPRuNe.

    The transponder is generally programmed to transmit the flight number (MH370 or MAS370 in this case) by the pilots at the gate before the aircraft taxis. The message it transmits however also includes a unique hardware ID registered to the aircraft hull (similar to a computer network card's MAC).

    So even if the pilots or hijackers changed the soft data the transponder could still be identified by its hard code.

    As an I.T. man of several decades experience, including much networking and security, your analogy of a computer network card is unfortunate, and not reassuring.

    The transponder is a piece of hardware / firmware / software. By definition it can be hacked.

    The problem would be the unique hardware ID registered to the airframe. I have no feel for how carefully this is checked by various radars around the world. Does it get checked for validity, such as does the flight number match the airline, aircraft type etc?

    I know we're getting into ludicrous speculation here, and it's silly - but it's fun.

    My personal hunch is that it's down in the ocean, just not found yet. The longer it is unfound, the smaller the debris field will be.
    Dinner table speculation today brought up a 1970s heist movie, perhaps a Bond?, where a hijacked plane was landed on a submerged runway, and looted by scuba diver robbers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    CBS leading with "evidence" of flight into Indian Ocean...

    The hijacking angle is starting to gain credence again if true.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Dinner table speculation today brought up a 1970s heist movie, perhaps a Bond?, where a hijacked plane was landed on a submerged runway, and looted by scuba diver robbers.

    Thunderball (1965)...

    Anyone know where the Disco Volante is?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    I assume FBI profilers are working on the passenger manifest to narrow down the number of potential hijackers.

    I'm a total novice re. profiling but I guess it would probably be a male aged 18 to 40.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    CBS leading with "evidence" of flight into Indian Ocean...

    The hijacking angle is starting to gain credence again if true.
    Hijacking/Suicide pilot/Depressurization or a combination of all three?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    CBS leading with "evidence" of flight into Indian Ocean...

    The hijacking angle is starting to gain credence again if true.
    Hijacking/Suicide pilot/Depressurization or a combination of all three?
    Not sure why it would change direction with the latter two, unless they were about to pass out from hypoxia and did it by accident.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    We know the co-pilot was in the habit of smoking during flights. Maybe he did that again on this flight, and there was some sort of leak...
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The depressurization to me looks the most likely as there wouldn't be much chance for anyone to send a message for help (though why would the transponders go off, unless it was a fault?). If it was hijacking, what do you gain from hijacking a plane and then ditching it in the sea? The randomness of some of the theories seem far fetched but nothing really can be ruled out until we find something, if we ever find something. Makes me wonder what priorities as a race we have when we can fire a missile to kill people from hundreds of miles away and can pinpoint it to someones bellend, however an airplane can go missing with 239 people on board and the worlds finest aviation minds are scratching their arse as they cannot find it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    CBS leading with "evidence" of flight into Indian Ocean...

    The hijacking angle is starting to gain credence again if true.
    Hijacking/Suicide pilot/Depressurization or a combination of all three?
    Not sure why it would change direction with the latter two, unless they were about to pass out from hypoxia and did it by accident.
    He wanted to face Mecca? He was trying to do a U-turn but didn't complete it?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Tim_B said:

    AveryLP said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, which may not necessarily be completely barking:

    "JackArmstrong
    1:22 AM GMT [Edited]


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

    Until I read this comment it hadn't really dawned on me how dangerous it could be to have a rogue 777 hidden away somewhere. No wonder the Americans are taking such a close interest in tracking it down.

    Every flight, the pilot keys in a 4 digit code to the transponder - flight number etc.

    It is surely not beyond the wit of man to reprogram the transponders so the captured plane could approach a metro area airport pretending to be anything other than what it actually is.

    The plane needs to be found.
    Again covered at length on PPRuNe.

    The transponder is generally programmed to transmit the flight number (MH370 or MAS370 in this case) by the pilots at the gate before the aircraft taxis. The message it transmits however also includes a unique hardware ID registered to the aircraft hull (similar to a computer network card's MAC).

    So even if the pilots or hijackers changed the soft data the transponder could still be identified by its hard code.

    As an I.T. man of several decades experience, including much networking and security, your analogy of a computer network card is unfortunate, and not reassuring.

    The transponder is a piece of hardware / firmware / software. By definition it can be hacked.

    The problem would be the unique hardware ID registered to the airframe. I have no feel for how carefully this is checked by various radars around the world. Does it get checked for validity, such as does the flight number match the airline, aircraft type etc?

    I know we're getting into ludicrous speculation here, and it's silly - but it's fun.

    My personal hunch is that it's down in the ocean, just not found yet. The longer it is unfound, the smaller the debris field will be.
    Tim.

    Good questions to which I don't know the answer.

    One would hope that airline tracking systems have the ability to verify the link between hard code and soft data. I remember one post by a pilot recounting how Air Traffic Control had informed him the transponder was transmitting the wrong flight number data, which the pilot then corrected before take-off. This however doesn't evidence a hard to soft code link.

    As to a hijacker reprogramming the firmware inflight can you see airline security allowing a passenger to board with an EEPROM eraser/programmer?

    Yep. By far the highest probability is that the aircraft is under water somewhere as yet undetected.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    This mystery is beginning to remind me of the Clive Cussler novel where a whole cruise ship disappears.

    Tim_B said:

    AveryLP said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, which may not necessarily be completely barking:

    "JackArmstrong
    1:22 AM GMT [Edited]


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

    Until I read this comment it hadn't really dawned on me how dangerous it could be to have a rogue 777 hidden away somewhere. No wonder the Americans are taking such a close interest in tracking it down.

    Every flight, the pilot keys in a 4 digit code to the transponder - flight number etc.

    It is surely not beyond the wit of man to reprogram the transponders so the captured plane could approach a metro area airport pretending to be anything other than what it actually is.

    The plane needs to be found.
    Again covered at length on PPRuNe.

    The transponder is generally programmed to transmit the flight number (MH370 or MAS370 in this case) by the pilots at the gate before the aircraft taxis. The message it transmits however also includes a unique hardware ID registered to the aircraft hull (similar to a computer network card's MAC).

    So even if the pilots or hijackers changed the soft data the transponder could still be identified by its hard code.

    As an I.T. man of several decades experience, including much networking and security, your analogy of a computer network card is unfortunate, and not reassuring.

    The transponder is a piece of hardware / firmware / software. By definition it can be hacked.

    The problem would be the unique hardware ID registered to the airframe. I have no feel for how carefully this is checked by various radars around the world. Does it get checked for validity, such as does the flight number match the airline, aircraft type etc?

    I know we're getting into ludicrous speculation here, and it's silly - but it's fun.

    My personal hunch is that it's down in the ocean, just not found yet. The longer it is unfound, the smaller the debris field will be.
    Dinner table speculation today brought up a 1970s heist movie, perhaps a Bond?, where a hijacked plane was landed on a submerged runway, and looted by scuba diver robbers.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    CBS leading with "evidence" of flight into Indian Ocean...

    The hijacking angle is starting to gain credence again if true.
    Hijacking/Suicide pilot/Depressurization or a combination of all three?
    Not sure why it would change direction with the latter two, unless they were about to pass out from hypoxia and did it by accident.
    He wanted to face Mecca? He was trying to do a U-turn but didn't complete it?
    Or simply a return to nearest suitable (or even unsuitable) landing area. The basis for the 'west turn' is almost universally assumed by the pilots to be an attempted 'return to base'.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    Suicide seems unlikely because why bother flying for another four hours? Trying to return to an airport seems unlikely as well.

    So that leaves hijacking and decompression as the two likely options.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RodCrosby said:
    Nothing much new here, Sir Roderick.

    Looks like the WSJ holding its speculative story with the intent of forcing an official announcement.

    Interesting to see INMARSAT, a UK company, named as a potential source of the 'ping' stpry.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AveryLP said:

    Tim_B said:

    AveryLP said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, which may not necessarily be completely barking:

    "JackArmstrong
    1:22 AM GMT [Edited]



    As an I.T. man of several decades experience, including much networking and security, your analogy of a computer network card is unfortunate, and not reassuring.

    The transponder is a piece of hardware / firmware / software. By definition it can be hacked.

    The problem would be the unique hardware ID registered to the airframe. I have no feel for how carefully this is checked by various radars around the world. Does it get checked for validity, such as does the flight number match the airline, aircraft type etc?

    I know we're getting into ludicrous speculation here, and it's silly - but it's fun.

    My personal hunch is that it's down in the ocean, just not found yet. The longer it is unfound, the smaller the debris field will be.
    Tim.

    Good questions to which I don't know the answer.

    One would hope that airline tracking systems have the ability to verify the link between hard code and soft data. I remember one post by a pilot recounting how Air Traffic Control had informed him the transponder was transmitting the wrong flight number data, which the pilot then corrected before take-off. This however doesn't evidence a hard to soft code link.

    As to a hijacker reprogramming the firmware inflight can you see airline security allowing a passenger to board with an EEPROM eraser/programmer?

    Yep. By far the highest probability is that the aircraft is under water somewhere as yet undetected.

    The 'hacking the transponder' scenario does presume the plane has landed and skilled personel have access to it with appropriate equipment.

    The 'hijackers' would also need to have access to some valid codes to reprogram the transponders. They might pick - for example - a Lockheed Tristar operated by Delta 15 years ago. It is presumably still flying somewhere in the world.It's radar signature wouldn't be much different, and the 777 could masquerade as a Delta plane headed for NYC or DC and all would look kosher until it was too late to do anything.

    The plane would need a new paint job as well, so it would have to be somewhere with hangars where the plane could be hidden from prying eyes. Also all the airside equipment - refuelling, engine start etc would be needed so the 777 would need to be at a remote airport in a terorist friendly country within range.

    Why do I get the feeling I'm writing SeanT's next book?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:
    This sentence stands out:

    "At one briefing, according to this person, officials were told investigators are actively pursuing the notion that the plane was diverted "with the intention of using it later for another purpose."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    I just hope various national airforces are ready to shoot down a rogue plane.

    They'd better watch out in case the plane has been painted in different colours in order to confuse.

    China seems the most likely target so that may mean Hong Kong or Guangzhou based on coming from a southern direction.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Current speculation says David Copperfield is responsible for the plane's disappearance :-)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    What about a shootdown like KAL007?

    Someone knows, and has let Malaysia et al go fishing in the wrong pond while the black boxes are quietly retrieved/destroyed...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    I just hope various national airforces are ready to shoot down a rogue plane.

    They'd better watch out in case the plane has been painted in different colours in order to confuse.

    China seems the most likely target so that may mean Hong Kong or Guangzhou based on coming from a southern direction.

    That's just the problem - If my wild eyed, bat shit crazy, tongue in cheek, and hopefuly utterly ludicrous scenario checks out, it won't look like a rogue plane - until it's much too late.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    According to the Daily Mail, there's a rumor that Malaysia Air was secretly funnelling money to the Scottish NO vote campaign, that MH370 was carrying campaign literature for them, and that one of the baggage loaders at KLIA was Alex Salmond's second cousin, twice removed.

    I would have included a link, except that it's utterly untrue... :-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This is the passenger manifest again:

    http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/211359060
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Just watched Formula 1 practice 1 for the Australian Grand Prix.

    The Mercedes team have #KeepFightingMichael on their cars.

    I wish him all the best for a full recovery.

    I'm just not sure what they'll find when they wake him up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    One thing that bothers me is the fact that there's a certain history between ethnic Malays and Chinese Malaysians. It just seems a bit of a coincidence that this incident would occur like it has with a majority of Chinese on board the plane.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AveryLP said:

    RodCrosby said:
    Nothing much new here, Sir Roderick.

    Looks like the WSJ holding its speculative story with the intent of forcing an official announcement.

    Interesting to see INMARSAT, a UK company, named as a potential source of the 'ping' stpry.

    The Inmarsat source makes sense.

    The aircraft appears to have been fitted with an Inmarsat Aero L package which works through an omni-directional antenna in the global beams of the I-3 series of satellites.

    Aero L is used for low speed (600 - 1200 bps) real-time, packet data comms used mainly for ATC (CPDLC) and ACARS services.

    In short, no SatPhone services.
    [PPRuNe]
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speaking of Thunderball (1965) - it was remade as Never Say Never Again in 1983.

    In the same way as You Only Live Twice (1967) was remade as The Spy Who Loved Me (1977).
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Tim_B said:

    Speaking of Thunderball (1965) - it was remade as Never Say Never Again in 1983.

    In the same way as You Only Live Twice (1967) was remade as The Spy Who Loved Me (1977).

    They were all the same plot. Moonraker and Octopussy were variations on the theme.

    Baddie steals lethal hardware from the superpowers, for ransome or to start WWIII. Bond saves the world...

    Actually Thunderball is my favourite Bond. Sexiest birds, credible villain, and the only one of the heist themes that has a remotely plausible plot.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RodCrosby said:

    Tim_B said:

    Speaking of Thunderball (1965) - it was remade as Never Say Never Again in 1983.

    In the same way as You Only Live Twice (1967) was remade as The Spy Who Loved Me (1977).

    They were all the same plot. Moonraker and Octopussy were variations on the theme.

    Baddie steals lethal hardware from the superpowers, for ransome or to start WWIII. Bond saves the world...

    Actually Thunderball is my favourite Bond. Sexiest birds, credible villain, and the only one of the heist themes that has a remotely plausible plot.
    Goldfinger is my favorite. It was the first one I saw as a 12 year old at the Odeon in Skipton
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Despite being a huge Bond fan, there are a few I haven't watched yet. Thunderball is one.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited March 2014
    I have them all on 2 dvd sets - sad but true. Even the 1967 Casino Royale. plus all the books. And several books about the books and the movies.

    The Daniel Craig Casino Royale holds the record for the most rolls by a car during a stunt.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Interesting to listen to Labour worthies tying themselves in knots not to be rude about Tony Benn!!

    Wonderful evening last night -Tale of Two Cities at Northampton Derngate Theatre - magnificent production and cast. Must move to West end - don't miss it.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 665
    Avery - Your Bob Sole comment violates the spirit of the no swearing at other posters rule.

    Please don't do it again.
This discussion has been closed.