politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%
So far the LD leadership contest has attracted little media coverage but is it just about feasible to contemplate that in the current political environment the next leader of the the strongly pro-EU LDs could be a future PM. James Kirkup sets out an interesting scenario on the Unherd political site.
Comments
-
First like Ed Davey0
-
O/T Sean Gabb on the Conservative leadership contest:
"In the next few weeks, we shall have a new Prime Minister. Unless we are to have yet another deviation from constitutional practice, this will be a robotic neoconservative or a bag of living offal. I expect nothing good from either, and only rejoice that I did not give the Conservative Party £25 this year for the right to spoil my ballot."0 -
No bar chart? Come on Mike!0
-
So Mike's voted for Swinson?0
-
It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.1
-
Interesting. I wonder if it's remotely possible to put together a chart converting two-option polling into percentages. Clearly DK percentage and time until ballot are just two of the complicating factors.
POLLING BETTING
50-50 50-50
52-48 60-40
54-46 70-30
57-43 80-20
60-40 90-10
65-35 97-3
70-30 99-10 -
Easy enough to convert statistical polling error to a probability of the poll being out by enough to flip the result. Converting possible systematic polling error is much harder, because you don't have enough comparable historical polls to analyse (and even if you did, you wouldn't really know if they were comparable). Where there is enough data (as in US state races, for example), you can do a pretty good job, as Nate Silver does.Tissue_Price said:Interesting. I wonder if it's remotely possible to put together a chart converting two-option polling into percentages. Clearly DK percentage and time until ballot are just two of the complicating factors.
POLLING BETTING
50-50 50-50
52-48 60-40
54-46 70-30
57-43 80-20
60-40 90-10
65-35 97-3
70-30 99-10 -
I wonder why you say that Jo Swinson is the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters. Whenever I've asked non-political people who they preferred out of the two videos launching each of their campaigns (plus a potted history of who had done what), I had the response that they preferred Jo.Richard_Nabavi said:It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.
I'd been very slightly leaning towards Ed at the time, albeit more than content with either of them, so I don't think I biased the sample with my potted history.0 -
Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
Born in 1948, first elected in 1997
It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.
So far no surprise announcements.
Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
Stephen Pound: 1948/19970 -
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?0 -
I'm still expecting Swinson to swing it.
Lib Dem advisers never get the press that Conservative ones (Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill) or Labour ones (Seamus Milne, Karie Murphy) do. But I suspect they will be key to Swinson's success or otherwise. They need to remind her to tone down her more "woke" instincts and to lead from the centre: social justice rather than identity politics.1 -
Yes, but (as we know) it's rarely statistical polling error that matters. It's either systematic sampling error, or simply that there is still time for things to change. FWIW, based on the 74-26 YouGov Times poll and the fact that many ballots are already returned, Boris Johnson should probably be 1.01 or shorter for the Tory leadership. He's still 1.05.Richard_Nabavi said:
Easy enough to convert statistical polling error to a probability of the poll being out by enough to flip the result. Converting possible systematic polling error is much harder, because you don't have enough comparable historical polls to analyse (and even if you did, you wouldn't really know if they were comparable). Where there is enough data (as in US state races, for example), you can do a pretty good job, as Nate Silver does.Tissue_Price said:Interesting. I wonder if it's remotely possible to put together a chart converting two-option polling into percentages. Clearly DK percentage and time until ballot are just two of the complicating factors.
POLLING BETTING
50-50 50-50
52-48 60-40
54-46 70-30
57-43 80-20
60-40 90-10
65-35 97-3
70-30 99-10 -
Lib Dems completely sunk if they choose Swinson, she is rubbish and a serial liar ( on Scottish topics at least ).1
-
'Alienate' was probably too strong a word, but I just don't think she comes across as very serious for a party which might be in a position to have a big influence on what government we get and what it does.Andy_Cooke said:
I wonder why you say that Jo Swinson is the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters. Whenever I've asked non-political people who they preferred out of the two videos launching each of their campaigns (plus a potted history of who had done what), I had the response that they preferred Jo.Richard_Nabavi said:It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.
I'd been very slightly leaning towards Ed at the time, albeit more than content with either of them, so I don't think I biased the sample with my potted history.
It might just be me though. I very rarely form an emotional dislike to politicians of any party, but I find her grating.0 -
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?0 -
No half measure with you Malcy,, of course you always speak God's truth on here, no question of you disobeying any of the 10 commandments eh!malcolmg said:Lib Dems completely sunk if they choose Swinson, she is rubbish and a serial liar ( on Scottish topics at least ).
0 -
-
A bag of living offal. That is right up there. Some people do have a talent for personal invective.Sean_F said:
O/T Sean Gabb on the Conservative leadership contest:
"In the next few weeks, we shall have a new Prime Minister. Unless we are to have yet another deviation from constitutional practice, this will be a robotic neoconservative or a bag of living offal. I expect nothing good from either, and only rejoice that I did not give the Conservative Party £25 this year for the right to spoil my ballot."
I myself don't. Whenever I'm discussing Donald Trump this deficiency of mine frustrates me no end. Words (quite literally) fail me.
These days I just go with "what a knob" and leave it at that.0 -
-
Swinson should not be a 1/5 fav then based on that.
Given her innate advantage as potentially the 1st female LD leader one must conclude that Davey is coming over much better in the campaign.0 -
Brecon & Radnorshire:
LD 1.14 / 1.17
Con 9 / 15
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1598539050 -
Twiggy off? He was the future once I seem to dimly recall.Scott_P said:0 -
-
Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.0
-
My sense is that there has been a swing toward Davey during the campaign; he does come across as the more heavyweight contender - interested in the big issues of economy and environment - whereas Jo has tended to chase smaller stuff. With the national political scene as it is, who knows what lies ahead.
Ed is also working very hard, phone banking members; LibDems always say it’s neck and neck until the end, but this time it might be true.
My guess on the survey result is that it’s the men who are more sheepish about not having had a female leader; the women are probably looking at the Tories and thinking there’s no hurry.1 -
-
Yes, today is the deadline for telling HQ whether they intend to stand.AndyJS said:Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/104825/labour-mps-purge-fear-they-are-given-two-week0 -
I think it's just this:AndyJS said:Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/24/labour-mps-asked-by-party-if-they-will-stand-again-at-next-general-election
To be fair, it seems a very reasonable thing for the party to do, given that a sudden election in the next few months is very possible.0 -
I suspect there is also a question of interpretationRichard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
When you prompt for “Muslim” at bet most people think of their local imam (and identify them strongly with a sub-group in the nation rather than all of them). Many will think of ISIS
In practice if you presented them with an agnostic Muslim like the Saj or a “good Muslim boy” like @thescreamingeagles I doubt their religion would have more than a marginal impact on voting intention0 -
Early list of manifesto possibilities for what used to be the Conservative Party:
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/11481391329018757120 -
4/5 Brexiteers of one shade or another there.AndreaParma_82 said:Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
Born in 1948, first elected in 1997
It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.
So far no surprise announcements.
Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
Stephen Pound: 1948/19970 -
1/10 markets on him will be a useful contributor to the Shadsy Xmas Bonus fund.Scott_P said:1 -
I voted Ed only because I see as a waste to bypass the older one when there is little to separate them, Jo will be around in 5 years or so.Andy_Cooke said:
I wonder why you say that Jo Swinson is the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters. Whenever I've asked non-political people who they preferred out of the two videos launching each of their campaigns (plus a potted history of who had done what), I had the response that they preferred Jo.Richard_Nabavi said:It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.
I'd been very slightly leaning towards Ed at the time, albeit more than content with either of them, so I don't think I biased the sample with my potted history.0 -
Mr. Borough, some comparison data for the populace as a whole would be enlightening.
0 -
they have to tell the party by this evening if they want to contest re-selection. For those who don't announce retirement, "trigger ballot" procedure will take place in the CLP in the coming months.AndyJS said:Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.
0 -
I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptopSandyRentool said:No bar chart? Come on Mike!
0 -
Alun Michael lost the trigger ballot for automatic re-selection as South Wales PCC Labour candidate. He will have to under-go full open selection.0
-
Mr. Smithson, hope the health matters aren't anything serious.0
-
Damn - I was too busy to answer this when they called me, obv only those with time on their hands could do so! Or was it someone else calling me..... Yougov are online normally aren't they.rottenborough said:Early list of manifesto possibilities for what used to be the Conservative Party:
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/11481391329018757120 -
Is Kate Hoey standing down so she can run as an MEP next Euro elections?AndreaParma_82 said:Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
Born in 1948, first elected in 1997
It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.
So far no surprise announcements.
Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
Stephen Pound: 1948/19970 -
Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?0
-
Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.Richard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?0 -
More likely as a Brexit Party candidate if there’s a snap General Election. Her letter only says she won’t be a Labour candidate again.rcs1000 said:
Is Kate Hoey standing down so she can run as an MEP next Euro elections?AndreaParma_82 said:Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
Born in 1948, first elected in 1997
It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.
So far no surprise announcements.
Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
Stephen Pound: 1948/1997
0 -
Sean Gabb certainly has a flair for invective.kinabalu said:
A bag of living offal. That is right up there. Some people do have a talent for personal invective.Sean_F said:
O/T Sean Gabb on the Conservative leadership contest:
"In the next few weeks, we shall have a new Prime Minister. Unless we are to have yet another deviation from constitutional practice, this will be a robotic neoconservative or a bag of living offal. I expect nothing good from either, and only rejoice that I did not give the Conservative Party £25 this year for the right to spoil my ballot."
I myself don't. Whenever I'm discussing Donald Trump this deficiency of mine frustrates me no end. Words (quite literally) fail me.
These days I just go with "what a knob" and leave it at that.0 -
Hope you're OK Mike, Davey looks the value based off the survey I think.MikeSmithson said:
I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptopSandyRentool said:No bar chart? Come on Mike!
0 -
She would have been chucked anyway ? What about Flint and Mann ?williamglenn said:
More likely as a Brexit Party candidate if there’s a snap General Election. Her letter only says she won’t be a Labour candidate again.rcs1000 said:
Is Kate Hoey standing down so she can run as an MEP next Euro elections?AndreaParma_82 said:Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
Born in 1948, first elected in 1997
It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.
So far no surprise announcements.
Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
Stephen Pound: 1948/19970 -
What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?Sean_F said:
Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.Richard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?0 -
I'd guess about 60%, although I know of no polling.surbiton19 said:
What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?Sean_F said:
Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.Richard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?0 -
She will not be the MP for Vauxhall on 31st December 2019.rottenborough said:0 -
Cheers Mike. I was being rather tongue in cheek in my flippancy.MikeSmithson said:
I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptopSandyRentool said:No bar chart? Come on Mike!
0 -
I am voting for Jo on the basis she is not another London based leader.0
-
If Swinson becomes LibDem leader, presumably she'll have to be replaced post-Scottish Independence?
So just a couple of years before the next leadership election.0 -
A better comparison might be with a practising Muslim like Sadiq Khan, rather than someone like Sajid Javid or Boris Johnson who only has Muslim ancestry.Charles said:
I suspect there is also a question of interpretationRichard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
When you prompt for “Muslim” at bet most people think of their local imam (and identify them strongly with a sub-group in the nation rather than all of them). Many will think of ISIS
In practice if you presented them with an agnostic Muslim like the Saj or a “good Muslim boy” like @thescreamingeagles I doubt their religion would have more than a marginal impact on voting intention0 -
Whining hereSandyRentool said:
Cheers Mike. I was being rather tongue in cheek in my flippancy.MikeSmithson said:
I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptopSandyRentool said:No bar chart? Come on Mike!
0 -
FPT
Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?eristdoof said:
Hold on ... there is a massive difference between opposing specific beliefs that are part of a religion and castigating the person because they belong to that religion.Philip_Thompson said:
Islam is a belief system.Chris said:
I don't think there are many people here who think it wouldn't be sexist to oppose a woman PM, or racist to oppose a black PM. Or, obviously, anti-semitic to oppose a Jewish PM. Or homophobic to oppose a gay or lesbian PM.Philip_Thompson said:
Is it Islamophobic if you'd prefer not to have a Christian or a Muslim PM? IE prefer a PM who is not religious at all.HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
But Anti-Muslim prejudice is acceptable in some quarters, in a way that other prejudices aren't.
I don't think there are many people who who think it would be "phobic" to oppose a fascist PM, or a socialist PM, or an authoritarian PM, or a libertarian PM depending upon your own beliefs.
But opposing religious beliefs is deemed unacceptable in most quarters, in a way that opposing other beliefs isn't.
There are plenty of things to object to in religions: circumcision in Judaism and Islam (circumcision is widespread in the non-beliver Jewish) and both religions' lack of rights for women, Catholicism's hypocritical opposition to contraception.
But if I were to give a student worse marks, or to prevent a person getting a permanent job, based soley on his/her religion that would be completely unacceptable, and illegal, and rightly so.
I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?0 -
For Remainers? I'd estimate about 80%.surbiton19 said:
What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?Sean_F said:
Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.Richard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?1 -
Nothing serious. Thanks to Israeli science and a privatised part of the NHS I'm taking part in a trial to avoid having a knee replacement. It's working brilliantlyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Smithson, hope the health matters aren't anything serious.
2 -
53%, in 2017:Sean_F said:
I'd guess about 60%, although I know of no polling.surbiton19 said:
What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?Sean_F said:
Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.Richard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-leave-voters-death-penalty-yougov-results-light-bulbs-a7656791.html0 -
That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.Scott_P said:0 -
More like 8%.El_Capitano said:
For Remainers? I'd estimate about 80%.surbiton19 said:
What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?Sean_F said:
Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.Richard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?0 -
Why ? He is not 100 yet.AlastairMeeks said:Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?
0 -
Alongside the logistics of how does he do it - party conferences consume most of September and keep parliament shut. Also any election in October will require an extension so Farage will destroy him given the October 31st deadline Boris has set himselfkinabalu said:
Bit in brackets absolutely key here.GIN1138 said:That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.
0 -
Surely elections will take precedence over Conference.eek said:
Alongside the logistics of how does he do it - party conferences consume most of September and keep parliament shut. Also any election in October will require an extension so Farage will destroy him given the October 31st deadline Boris has set himselfkinabalu said:
Bit in brackets absolutely key here.GIN1138 said:That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.
0 -
I think there might be a "woooosh" theresurbiton19 said:
More like 8%.El_Capitano said:
For Remainers? I'd estimate about 80%.surbiton19 said:
What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?Sean_F said:
Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.Richard_Nabavi said:
My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.Stereotomy said:
I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?Stereotomy said:
A mere 43%HYUFD said:
Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PMFoxy said:
Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.HYUFD said:54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T
Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.
Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
0 -
Zionist technology meets NHS privatization.MikeSmithson said:Nothing serious. Thanks to Israeli science and a privatised part of the NHS I'm taking part in a trial to avoid having a knee replacement. It's working brilliantly
You may attend our meetings but must check your knee at the door.0 -
"I ran a bookies for 12 years – they deserve no sympathy for these store closures
Owen Rees
Reforms to fixed-odds betting machines were always going to hit this profit-driven industry, although closures will send more gamblers online"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/08/bookies-store-closures-gamblers-jobs0 -
Chris said:
A better comparison might be with a practising Muslim like Sadiq Khan, rather than someone like Sajid Javid or Boris Johnson who only has Muslim ancestry.
Indeed. This century has seen a worrying phenomenon of people claiming affinity to and/or, association with a religion they no longer believe in (and in some cases never did) in an attempt to score brownie points with certain groups or falsely boost diversity scores.
One can legitimately profess sympathy with groups without needing to make oneself a part of them.
To his credit, Boris doesn't claim to be much of a Muslim, but the cake-and-it-eat disingenuousness of some groups - particularly 'Jewish' Atheists - is quite staggering. I also felt that some of Cameron's comments about 'Cultural Christianity' were a bit weaselly.
I didn't agree with Tim Farron but his theological position was at least heartfelt and genuine. Khan possibly a little less so.
0 -
Mr. Smithson, huzzah!0
-
They do indeed. October elections have often led to the conferences not taking place - or being delayed.Philip_Thompson said:
Surely elections will take precedence over Conference.eek said:
Alongside the logistics of how does he do it - party conferences consume most of September and keep parliament shut. Also any election in October will require an extension so Farage will destroy him given the October 31st deadline Boris has set himselfkinabalu said:
Bit in brackets absolutely key here.GIN1138 said:That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.
0 -
-
No. But if you were an employer and you brought religious belief into hiring decisions, that usually would be.Philip_Thompson said:Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?
I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?
An obvious exception is where religion has a specific and direct relevance to the job.
For example, it is OK when interviewing potential Popes to not even bother seeing anybody who is not a Catholic (and preferably quite a devout one).0 -
Excellent news, Mike!MikeSmithson said:
Nothing serious. Thanks to Israeli science and a privatised part of the NHS I'm taking part in a trial to avoid having a knee replacement. It's working brilliantlyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Smithson, hope the health matters aren't anything serious.
Does this mean you will be fit in time for the start of the next football season?
Btw, belated congratulations to you and Mrs S on the Anniversary. Hope it was a happy and memorable day.0 -
Or indeed already a Cardinal.kinabalu said:
No. But if you were an employer and you brought religious belief into hiring decisions, that usually would be.Philip_Thompson said:Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?
I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?
An obvious exception is where religion has a specific and direct relevance to the job.
For example, it is OK when interviewing potential Popes to not even bother seeing anybody who is not a Catholic (and preferably quite a devout one).0 -
I asked this the other day but don't think anyone answered.
Why didn't Davey stand for leader in 2017?
It's entirely understandable why Swinson didn't stand then on grounds of age / experience etc - but I can't understand why Davey didn't stand. He would have had a much better chance of winning in 2017 and might have even won unopposed.0 -
As it should be, though for politicians we are electing people based on their beliefs, so the candidates beliefs should weigh into it shouldn't they?kinabalu said:
No. But if you were an employer and you brought religious belief into hiring decisions, that usually would be.Philip_Thompson said:Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?
I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?
An obvious exception is where religion has a specific and direct relevance to the job.
For example, it is OK when interviewing potential Popes to not even bother seeing anybody who is not a Catholic (and preferably quite a devout one).
I am very happy to elect anyone secular, so long as the rest of their beliefs also go along with my political beliefs. If someone wants to start setting laws based on their religion, as many have made a point of emphasising, then it is surely reasonable for that to be viewed as a red flag?0 -
Would this prevent an election being called?Scott_P said:0 -
-
Geoffrey Robinson and Ann Clwyd are also over 80AlastairMeeks said:Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?
0 -
-
Scammers claiming Universal Credit Emergency Loans for other people stole tens of millions of pounds. Who would have thought handing out money within the hour to an Online applicant would be this complex?0
-
Looks like the LD leadership contest is far closer than the Tory leadership contest then with Swindon just edging it0
-
I noticed in the Mail on Sunday in the Blackdog column an article stating Boris was having pictures done with backbench MPs. Might well mean a GE is being planned but I doubt the Tories will do any better than they have got now seat wise and could well do worse.GIN1138 said:
That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.Scott_P said:0 -
He also said he was a Republican the other day, by far the worst First Minister Wales has had, at least Adam Price looks the part if Wales wants a First Minister who is a Nationalist.Scott_P said:
Plus Wales voted Leave just like England0 -
Looks like Robinson is standing down, as is Stephen Twigg.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Geoffrey Robinson and Ann Clwyd are also over 80AlastairMeeks said:Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?
0 -
Lord Falconer was on R4 about this this morning. He may not have resigned but he certainly sounded it.Scott_P said:0 -
-
2017 Davey had just returned to The Commons after losing his seat 2 years earlier. In 2017 he had just returned to the commons after losing his seat 2 years earlier. There was also an issues relating to one of his childrenMikeL said:I asked this the other day but don't think anyone answered.
Why didn't Davey stand for leader in 2017?
It's entirely understandable why Swinson didn't stand then on grounds of age / experience etc - but I can't understand why Davey didn't stand. He would have had a much better chance of winning in 2017 and might have even won unopposed.0 -
Here is the BBC News on UC scam.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-488877530 -
Is that guy Corbyn not also really, really old and slightly dottled?GarethoftheVale2 said:
Looks like Robinson is standing down, as is Stephen Twigg.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Geoffrey Robinson and Ann Clwyd are also over 80AlastairMeeks said:Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?
0 -
"This suggests that fraud rates on universal credit are about four times higher than on most other benefits.dixiedean said:Here is the BBC News on UC scam.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48887753
Ironically, one of the original goals of universal credit was to save about a billion pounds in fraud and error."
Classic
0 -
