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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%

So far the LD leadership contest has attracted little media coverage but is it just about feasible to contemplate that in the current political environment the next leader of the the strongly pro-EU LDs could be a future PM. James Kirkup sets out an interesting scenario on the Unherd political site.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    First like Ed Davey
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    O/T Sean Gabb on the Conservative leadership contest:

    "In the next few weeks, we shall have a new Prime Minister. Unless we are to have yet another deviation from constitutional practice, this will be a robotic neoconservative or a bag of living offal. I expect nothing good from either, and only rejoice that I did not give the Conservative Party £25 this year for the right to spoil my ballot."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    No bar chart? Come on Mike!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    So Mike's voted for Swinson?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited July 2019
    Interesting. I wonder if it's remotely possible to put together a chart converting two-option polling into percentages. Clearly DK percentage and time until ballot are just two of the complicating factors.
    POLLING    BETTING
     50-50      50-50
     52-48      60-40
     54-46      70-30
     57-43      80-20
     60-40      90-10
     65-35      97-3
     70-30      99-1
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019
    Tissue_Price said:

    Interesting. I wonder if it's remotely possible to put together a chart converting two-option polling into percentages. Clearly DK percentage and time until ballot are just two of the complicating factors.


    POLLING    BETTING
     50-50      50-50
     52-48      60-40
     54-46      70-30
     57-43      80-20
     60-40      90-10
     65-35      97-3
     70-30      99-1
    Easy enough to convert statistical polling error to a probability of the poll being out by enough to flip the result. Converting possible systematic polling error is much harder, because you don't have enough comparable historical polls to analyse (and even if you did, you wouldn't really know if they were comparable). Where there is enough data (as in US state races, for example), you can do a pretty good job, as Nate Silver does.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.

    I wonder why you say that Jo Swinson is the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters. Whenever I've asked non-political people who they preferred out of the two videos launching each of their campaigns (plus a potted history of who had done what), I had the response that they preferred Jo.

    I'd been very slightly leaning towards Ed at the time, albeit more than content with either of them, so I don't think I biased the sample with my potted history.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1148227364096237568
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2019
    Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
    Born in 1948, first elected in 1997

    It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.

    So far no surprise announcements.

    Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
    Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
    Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
    Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
    Stephen Pound: 1948/1997
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    I'm still expecting Swinson to swing it.

    Lib Dem advisers never get the press that Conservative ones (Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill) or Labour ones (Seamus Milne, Karie Murphy) do. But I suspect they will be key to Swinson's success or otherwise. They need to remind her to tone down her more "woke" instincts and to lead from the centre: social justice rather than identity politics.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited July 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Interesting. I wonder if it's remotely possible to put together a chart converting two-option polling into percentages. Clearly DK percentage and time until ballot are just two of the complicating factors.


    POLLING    BETTING
     50-50      50-50
     52-48      60-40
     54-46      70-30
     57-43      80-20
     60-40      90-10
     65-35      97-3
     70-30      99-1
    Easy enough to convert statistical polling error to a probability of the poll being out by enough to flip the result. Converting possible systematic polling error is much harder, because you don't have enough comparable historical polls to analyse (and even if you did, you wouldn't really know if they were comparable). Where there is enough data (as in US state races, for example), you can do a pretty good job, as Nate Silver does.
    Yes, but (as we know) it's rarely statistical polling error that matters. It's either systematic sampling error, or simply that there is still time for things to change. FWIW, based on the 74-26 YouGov Times poll and the fact that many ballots are already returned, Boris Johnson should probably be 1.01 or shorter for the Tory leadership. He's still 1.05.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Lib Dems completely sunk if they choose Swinson, she is rubbish and a serial liar ( on Scottish topics at least ).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.

    I wonder why you say that Jo Swinson is the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters. Whenever I've asked non-political people who they preferred out of the two videos launching each of their campaigns (plus a potted history of who had done what), I had the response that they preferred Jo.

    I'd been very slightly leaning towards Ed at the time, albeit more than content with either of them, so I don't think I biased the sample with my potted history.
    'Alienate' was probably too strong a word, but I just don't think she comes across as very serious for a party which might be in a position to have a big influence on what government we get and what it does.

    It might just be me though. I very rarely form an emotional dislike to politicians of any party, but I find her grating.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    malcolmg said:

    Lib Dems completely sunk if they choose Swinson, she is rubbish and a serial liar ( on Scottish topics at least ).

    No half measure with you Malcy,, of course you always speak God's truth on here, no question of you disobeying any of the 10 commandments eh!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1148233951565291520
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Sean_F said:


    O/T Sean Gabb on the Conservative leadership contest:

    "In the next few weeks, we shall have a new Prime Minister. Unless we are to have yet another deviation from constitutional practice, this will be a robotic neoconservative or a bag of living offal. I expect nothing good from either, and only rejoice that I did not give the Conservative Party £25 this year for the right to spoil my ballot."

    A bag of living offal. That is right up there. Some people do have a talent for personal invective.

    I myself don't. Whenever I'm discussing Donald Trump this deficiency of mine frustrates me no end. Words (quite literally) fail me.

    These days I just go with "what a knob" and leave it at that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/StephenTwigg/status/1148234033702363136
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Swinson should not be a 1/5 fav then based on that.

    Given her innate advantage as potentially the 1st female LD leader one must conclude that Davey is coming over much better in the campaign.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Brecon & Radnorshire:

    LD 1.14 / 1.17
    Con 9 / 15

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159853905
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/StephenTwigg/status/1148234033702363136

    Twiggy off? He was the future once I seem to dimly recall.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Lib Dems completely sunk if they choose Swinson, she is rubbish and a serial liar ( on Scottish topics at least ).

    I love the simplicity of the @malcolmg decision flow chart

    1. Does he/she support Scottish independence?

    If yes: great, brilliant
    If no: rubbish and a serial liar
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited July 2019
    My sense is that there has been a swing toward Davey during the campaign; he does come across as the more heavyweight contender - interested in the big issues of economy and environment - whereas Jo has tended to chase smaller stuff. With the national political scene as it is, who knows what lies ahead.

    Ed is also working very hard, phone banking members; LibDems always say it’s neck and neck until the end, but this time it might be true.

    My guess on the survey result is that it’s the men who are more sheepish about not having had a female leader; the women are probably looking at the Tories and thinking there’s no hurry.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    I love the simplicity of the @malcolmg decision flow chart

    1. Does he/she support Scottish independence?

    If yes: great, brilliant
    If no: rubbish and a serial liar

    It's more subtle and complex than the Brexit equivalent though...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AndyJS said:

    Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.

    Before Panorama drops?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1148238138793480194
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.

    Yes, today is the deadline for telling HQ whether they intend to stand.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/104825/labour-mps-purge-fear-they-are-given-two-week
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndyJS said:

    Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.

    I think it's just this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/24/labour-mps-asked-by-party-if-they-will-stand-again-at-next-general-election

    To be fair, it seems a very reasonable thing for the party to do, given that a sudden election in the next few months is very possible.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    I suspect there is also a question of interpretation

    When you prompt for “Muslim” at bet most people think of their local imam (and identify them strongly with a sub-group in the nation rather than all of them). Many will think of ISIS

    In practice if you presented them with an agnostic Muslim like the Saj or a “good Muslim boy” like @thescreamingeagles I doubt their religion would have more than a marginal impact on voting intention
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Early list of manifesto possibilities for what used to be the Conservative Party:

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1148139132901875712
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
    Born in 1948, first elected in 1997

    It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.

    So far no surprise announcements.

    Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
    Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
    Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
    Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
    Stephen Pound: 1948/1997

    4/5 Brexiteers of one shade or another there.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1148238138793480194

    1/10 markets on him will be a useful contributor to the Shadsy Xmas Bonus fund.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's a bit fanciful to say that the LibDems might be choosing a future PM, but they are quite likely to be choosing a leader who could play an important role in whether or not we get back to sane government again. So they really ought to choose Ed Davey, but I fear they will want to emulate the two big parties by choosing the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters.

    I wonder why you say that Jo Swinson is the candidate likely to alienate ordinary voters. Whenever I've asked non-political people who they preferred out of the two videos launching each of their campaigns (plus a potted history of who had done what), I had the response that they preferred Jo.

    I'd been very slightly leaning towards Ed at the time, albeit more than content with either of them, so I don't think I biased the sample with my potted history.
    I voted Ed only because I see as a waste to bypass the older one when there is little to separate them, Jo will be around in 5 years or so.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Borough, some comparison data for the populace as a whole would be enlightening.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1148229746272215041
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Is there a reason why so many Labour MPs are announcing their decision to stand down today? Usually the announcements would be spread out more.

    they have to tell the party by this evening if they want to contest re-selection. For those who don't announce retirement, "trigger ballot" procedure will take place in the CLP in the coming months.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SandyRentool said:

    No bar chart? Come on Mike!

    I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptop
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Alun Michael lost the trigger ballot for automatic re-selection as South Wales PCC Labour candidate. He will have to under-go full open selection.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Smithson, hope the health matters aren't anything serious.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited July 2019
    rottenborough said:

    Early list of manifesto possibilities for what used to be the Conservative Party:

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1148139132901875712

    Damn - I was too busy to answer this when they called me, obv only those with time on their hands could do so! Or was it someone else calling me..... Yougov are online normally aren't they.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
    Born in 1948, first elected in 1997

    It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.

    So far no surprise announcements.

    Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
    Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
    Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
    Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
    Stephen Pound: 1948/1997

    Is Kate Hoey standing down so she can run as an MEP next Euro elections?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1148242346817019904
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    rcs1000 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
    Born in 1948, first elected in 1997

    It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.

    So far no surprise announcements.

    Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
    Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
    Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
    Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
    Stephen Pound: 1948/1997

    Is Kate Hoey standing down so she can run as an MEP next Euro elections?
    More likely as a Brexit Party candidate if there’s a snap General Election. Her letter only says she won’t be a Labour candidate again.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:


    O/T Sean Gabb on the Conservative leadership contest:

    "In the next few weeks, we shall have a new Prime Minister. Unless we are to have yet another deviation from constitutional practice, this will be a robotic neoconservative or a bag of living offal. I expect nothing good from either, and only rejoice that I did not give the Conservative Party £25 this year for the right to spoil my ballot."

    A bag of living offal. That is right up there. Some people do have a talent for personal invective.

    I myself don't. Whenever I'm discussing Donald Trump this deficiency of mine frustrates me no end. Words (quite literally) fail me.

    These days I just go with "what a knob" and leave it at that.
    Sean Gabb certainly has a flair for invective.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    MikeSmithson said:

    SandyRentool said:

    No bar chart? Come on Mike!

    I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptop
    Hope you're OK Mike, Davey looks the value based off the survey I think.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Stephen Pound (Ealing North) to retire at next GE.
    Born in 1948, first elected in 1997

    It is 5th Labour MP to confirm he won't undergo the reselection process. Deadline is this evening.

    So far no surprise announcements.

    Jim Fitzpatrick: born in 1952/first elected in 1997
    Ronnie Campbell: 1943/1987
    Kevin Barron: 1946/1983
    Kate Hoey: 1946/1989
    Stephen Pound: 1948/1997

    Is Kate Hoey standing down so she can run as an MEP next Euro elections?
    More likely as a Brexit Party candidate if there’s a snap General Election. Her letter only says she won’t be a Labour candidate again.

    She would have been chucked anyway ? What about Flint and Mann ?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.
    What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    surbiton19 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.
    What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?
    I'd guess about 60%, although I know of no polling.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1148242346817019904

    She will not be the MP for Vauxhall on 31st December 2019.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    MikeSmithson said:

    SandyRentool said:

    No bar chart? Come on Mike!

    I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptop
    Cheers Mike. I was being rather tongue in cheek in my flippancy.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    I am voting for Jo on the basis she is not another London based leader.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    If Swinson becomes LibDem leader, presumably she'll have to be replaced post-Scottish Independence?

    So just a couple of years before the next leadership election.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Charles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    I suspect there is also a question of interpretation

    When you prompt for “Muslim” at bet most people think of their local imam (and identify them strongly with a sub-group in the nation rather than all of them). Many will think of ISIS

    In practice if you presented them with an agnostic Muslim like the Saj or a “good Muslim boy” like @thescreamingeagles I doubt their religion would have more than a marginal impact on voting intention
    A better comparison might be with a practising Muslim like Sadiq Khan, rather than someone like Sajid Javid or Boris Johnson who only has Muslim ancestry.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SandyRentool said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    SandyRentool said:

    No bar chart? Come on Mike!

    I've been out most of the day on health matters and only have my phone to do the site. Hard doing a chart without my laptop
    Cheers Mike. I was being rather tongue in cheek in my flippancy.
    Whining here :tongue:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    eristdoof said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Chris said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    Is it Islamophobic if you'd prefer not to have a Christian or a Muslim PM? IE prefer a PM who is not religious at all.
    I don't think there are many people here who think it wouldn't be sexist to oppose a woman PM, or racist to oppose a black PM. Or, obviously, anti-semitic to oppose a Jewish PM. Or homophobic to oppose a gay or lesbian PM.

    But Anti-Muslim prejudice is acceptable in some quarters, in a way that other prejudices aren't.
    Islam is a belief system.

    I don't think there are many people who who think it would be "phobic" to oppose a fascist PM, or a socialist PM, or an authoritarian PM, or a libertarian PM depending upon your own beliefs.

    But opposing religious beliefs is deemed unacceptable in most quarters, in a way that opposing other beliefs isn't.
    Hold on ... there is a massive difference between opposing specific beliefs that are part of a religion and castigating the person because they belong to that religion.

    There are plenty of things to object to in religions: circumcision in Judaism and Islam (circumcision is widespread in the non-beliver Jewish) and both religions' lack of rights for women, Catholicism's hypocritical opposition to contraception.

    But if I were to give a student worse marks, or to prevent a person getting a permanent job, based soley on his/her religion that would be completely unacceptable, and illegal, and rightly so.
    Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?

    I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    surbiton19 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.
    What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?
    For Remainers? I'd estimate about 80%.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, hope the health matters aren't anything serious.

    Nothing serious. Thanks to Israeli science and a privatised part of the NHS I'm taking part in a trial to avoid having a knee replacement. It's working brilliantly
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton19 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.
    What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?
    I'd guess about 60%, although I know of no polling.
    53%, in 2017:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-leave-voters-death-penalty-yougov-results-light-bulbs-a7656791.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1148233951565291520

    That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1148241311776083969?s=21
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    El_Capitano said:

    surbiton19 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.
    What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?
    For Remainers? I'd estimate about 80%.
    More like 8%.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    GIN1138 said:

    That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.

    Bit in brackets absolutely key here.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?

    Why ? He is not 100 yet.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited July 2019
    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.

    Bit in brackets absolutely key here.
    Alongside the logistics of how does he do it - party conferences consume most of September and keep parliament shut. Also any election in October will require an extension so Farage will destroy him given the October 31st deadline Boris has set himself
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.

    Bit in brackets absolutely key here.
    Alongside the logistics of how does he do it - party conferences consume most of September and keep parliament shut. Also any election in October will require an extension so Farage will destroy him given the October 31st deadline Boris has set himself
    Surely elections will take precedence over Conference.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    surbiton19 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    surbiton19 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    54% of Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM, 43% do not

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    Pretty rampant Islamophobia in the detail.

    Though only a minority oppose a Muslim PM
    A mere 43%
    What are the equivalent figures for Labour and the population at large?
    I have the sneaking suspicion that you're asking that not in good faith but because you know that polling question wasn't put to the Labour membership or the population at large.

    Honestly I don't know all the polling that's been done on questions like this. But if you look at the tables for, say, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/02/19/tracker-islam-and-british-values , you can see a very significant disparity between Conservative voters (not members) and Labour.

    Do you know of any similar polling that gives an indication that Conservative voters or members hold attitudes towards Muslims/Islam which are broadly similar to Labour or the general population?
    My question is entirely in good faith. How on earth can anyone evaluate the significance of a figure if you don't know whether it's higher than, about the same as, or lower than the figures for other segments of the population? And even if there is a difference, it might be one simply of age.
    Polling generally suggests that around half the voters think that Islam is incompatible with British values and support the death penalty.
    What percentage of Brexit supporters support the death penalty ?
    For Remainers? I'd estimate about 80%.
    More like 8%.
    I think there might be a "woooosh" there :wink:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    MikeSmithson said:

    Nothing serious. Thanks to Israeli science and a privatised part of the NHS I'm taking part in a trial to avoid having a knee replacement. It's working brilliantly

    Zionist technology meets NHS privatization.

    You may attend our meetings but must check your knee at the door.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "I ran a bookies for 12 years – they deserve no sympathy for these store closures
    Owen Rees

    Reforms to fixed-odds betting machines were always going to hit this profit-driven industry, although closures will send more gamblers online"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/08/bookies-store-closures-gamblers-jobs
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    Chris said:



    A better comparison might be with a practising Muslim like Sadiq Khan, rather than someone like Sajid Javid or Boris Johnson who only has Muslim ancestry.


    Indeed. This century has seen a worrying phenomenon of people claiming affinity to and/or, association with a religion they no longer believe in (and in some cases never did) in an attempt to score brownie points with certain groups or falsely boost diversity scores.

    One can legitimately profess sympathy with groups without needing to make oneself a part of them.

    To his credit, Boris doesn't claim to be much of a Muslim, but the cake-and-it-eat disingenuousness of some groups - particularly 'Jewish' Atheists - is quite staggering. I also felt that some of Cameron's comments about 'Cultural Christianity' were a bit weaselly.

    I didn't agree with Tim Farron but his theological position was at least heartfelt and genuine. Khan possibly a little less so.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Smithson, huzzah!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Philip_Thompson said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.

    Bit in brackets absolutely key here.
    Alongside the logistics of how does he do it - party conferences consume most of September and keep parliament shut. Also any election in October will require an extension so Farage will destroy him given the October 31st deadline Boris has set himself
    Surely elections will take precedence over Conference.
    They do indeed. October elections have often led to the conferences not taking place - or being delayed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ChrisJames_90/status/1148250451579723776
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?

    I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?

    No. But if you were an employer and you brought religious belief into hiring decisions, that usually would be.

    An obvious exception is where religion has a specific and direct relevance to the job.

    For example, it is OK when interviewing potential Popes to not even bother seeing anybody who is not a Catholic (and preferably quite a devout one).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    MikeSmithson said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, hope the health matters aren't anything serious.

    Nothing serious. Thanks to Israeli science and a privatised part of the NHS I'm taking part in a trial to avoid having a knee replacement. It's working brilliantly
    Excellent news, Mike!

    Does this mean you will be fit in time for the start of the next football season?

    Btw, belated congratulations to you and Mrs S on the Anniversary. Hope it was a happy and memorable day.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    kinabalu said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?

    I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?

    No. But if you were an employer and you brought religious belief into hiring decisions, that usually would be.

    An obvious exception is where religion has a specific and direct relevance to the job.

    For example, it is OK when interviewing potential Popes to not even bother seeing anybody who is not a Catholic (and preferably quite a devout one).
    Or indeed already a Cardinal.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited July 2019
    I asked this the other day but don't think anyone answered.

    Why didn't Davey stand for leader in 2017?

    It's entirely understandable why Swinson didn't stand then on grounds of age / experience etc - but I can't understand why Davey didn't stand. He would have had a much better chance of winning in 2017 and might have even won unopposed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Who suggested that it is acceptable to discriminate based on religion?

    I oppose anyone who wants to set law based on religion regardless of what their religion is. I would vote for a Muslim who believes in secular laws but not a Christian who believes laws should reflect their faith. And same vice-versa. Is that discrimination?

    No. But if you were an employer and you brought religious belief into hiring decisions, that usually would be.

    An obvious exception is where religion has a specific and direct relevance to the job.

    For example, it is OK when interviewing potential Popes to not even bother seeing anybody who is not a Catholic (and preferably quite a devout one).
    As it should be, though for politicians we are electing people based on their beliefs, so the candidates beliefs should weigh into it shouldn't they?

    I am very happy to elect anyone secular, so long as the rest of their beliefs also go along with my political beliefs. If someone wants to start setting laws based on their religion, as many have made a point of emphasising, then it is surely reasonable for that to be viewed as a red flag?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisJames_90/status/1148250451579723776

    Would this prevent an election being called?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/lee_georgina/status/1148260938568609792
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?

    Geoffrey Robinson and Ann Clwyd are also over 80
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1148261959214780416
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Scammers claiming Universal Credit Emergency Loans for other people stole tens of millions of pounds. Who would have thought handing out money within the hour to an Online applicant would be this complex?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dixiedean said:

    Scammers claiming Universal Credit Emergency Loans for other people stole tens of millions of pounds. Who would have thought handing out money within the hour to an Online applicant would be this complex?

    Tell us more.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Looks like the LD leadership contest is far closer than the Tory leadership contest then with Swindon just edging it
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1148233951565291520

    That's why Boris will get in first (if he's got any sense) and call an election in September on his own terms.
    I noticed in the Mail on Sunday in the Blackdog column an article stating Boris was having pictures done with backbench MPs. Might well mean a GE is being planned but I doubt the Tories will do any better than they have got now seat wise and could well do worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1148261959214780416

    He also said he was a Republican the other day, by far the worst First Minister Wales has had, at least Adam Price looks the part if Wales wants a First Minister who is a Nationalist.

    Plus Wales voted Leave just like England
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?

    Geoffrey Robinson and Ann Clwyd are also over 80
    Looks like Robinson is standing down, as is Stephen Twigg.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lee_georgina/status/1148260938568609792

    Lord Falconer was on R4 about this this morning. He may not have resigned but he certainly sounded it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/1148263353871216640
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scammers claiming Universal Credit Emergency Loans for other people stole tens of millions of pounds. Who would have thought handing out money within the hour to an Online applicant would be this complex?

    Tell us more.
    On PM right now.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MikeL said:

    I asked this the other day but don't think anyone answered.

    Why didn't Davey stand for leader in 2017?

    It's entirely understandable why Swinson didn't stand then on grounds of age / experience etc - but I can't understand why Davey didn't stand. He would have had a much better chance of winning in 2017 and might have even won unopposed.

    2017 Davey had just returned to The Commons after losing his seat 2 years earlier. In 2017 he had just returned to the commons after losing his seat 2 years earlier. There was also an issues relating to one of his children
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Here is the BBC News on UC scam.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48887753
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Surely Dennis Skinner is going to retire this time?

    Geoffrey Robinson and Ann Clwyd are also over 80
    Looks like Robinson is standing down, as is Stephen Twigg.
    Is that guy Corbyn not also really, really old and slightly dottled?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    dixiedean said:

    Here is the BBC News on UC scam.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48887753

    "This suggests that fraud rates on universal credit are about four times higher than on most other benefits.

    Ironically, one of the original goals of universal credit was to save about a billion pounds in fraud and error."

    Classic :lol:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1148245527970160640
This discussion has been closed.