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SystemSystem Posts: 12,603
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris wins then last month’s ComRes poll suggests a huge CON recovery is in prospect

Telegraph June 11 2019

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,020
    First.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    I'm going to take that poll with a giant pinch of salt
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Boris taking over is probably too little, too late for Brecon and Radnorshire even if the new PM effect is real because of three reasons.

    1: The fact its a by-election allowing protest vote/differential turnout.
    2: The nature of why it was called and the incumbent MPs criminal conviction.
    3: Vast majority of postal voting will surely take place while May is still PM?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    I'm going to take that poll with a giant pinch of salt

    You might but it had a huge impact on CON MPs and was a key part in Johnson's success.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    I think this could be right. Most voters are sick of miserablist politicians who are always talking about how awful everything is and how the world is about to end if we don't pull our socks up. Boris is a potential antidote to that, and voters welcome it, (at least outside the big cities, where such thinking is in vogue).
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I doubt Boris will get a 140 majority if he called an election. The Tories are in no position financially or organisationally to fight such an election. It is a fantasy!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Zephyr said:

    Yes. And it has to be because not being in EU doesn’t mean two passive adversaries, it means we are in competition with EU now. Fish wars. Farm wars. Car wars. Robotics and genetics wars.

    What did the 80s teach us about competition? Serves customer, at expense of what? We will be in Wage, profit margin, contract and condition squeezing competition with not just EU, but all countries we now have trade deals with we burn on EU exit, in order to keep and attract jobs and business - playing into the hands of the globalisation and lost control much of leave vote actually thought they were waving their fists against.

    After the two world wars they said never Again. We will be smarter now. However, Humans only learn its hot by burning themselves, Again. And again.

    Absolutely the 80s taught us that competition works. Competition serves our people, serves our consumers, serves our workers.

    The EU I agree has been a desire to turn our backs on competition, which is why Europe has languished in malaise while Asia and America leapfrogs us. Because pulling up a comfort blanket and pretending competition doesn't exist, simply doesn't work.

    We need to view Europeans not as our communitaire or with solidarite but instead every bit as much our competitors as Asians and Americans are. And if we do that, then we can succeed in this globalised world.

    As we will then face the world as it is, not how we wish it to be.
    For what ? Nothing that any normal human being in the U.K. would give up any loss of economic well being, there is no plus side to brexit, no sunny uplands, no political saviors but I hope you enjoy your new found freedoms when you spend them in the supermarket.
    There is a very clear plus side to Brexit, there will be nowhere to hide for our politicians. The buckpassing game with Brussels must end and we must take responsibility for ourselves. That is a plus.

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Boris taking over is probably too little, too late for Brecon and Radnorshire even if the new PM effect is real because of three reasons.

    1: The fact its a by-election allowing protest vote/differential turnout.
    2: The nature of why it was called and the incumbent MPs criminal conviction.
    3: Vast majority of postal voting will surely take place while May is still PM?

    Any polling since May stood down will have taken into account that Johnson wil, other things aside, will be PM. I can’t see how formal announcement of the result will do anything to change public perception. So the last poll published is the best measure of that pollsters panel at the time it was surveyed. The Boris bounce should already be apparent.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    I'm going to take that poll with a giant pinch of salt

    You might but it had a huge impact on CON MPs and was a key part in Johnson's success.
    Yes it was probably the deciding factor in many MPs considerations.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,631
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    I'm going to take that poll with a giant pinch of salt

    You might but it had a huge impact on CON MPs and was a key part in Johnson's success.
    No comment. :D
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Zephyr said:

    Yes. And it has to be because not being in EU doesn’t mean two passive adversaries, it means we are in competition with EU now. Fish wars. Farm wars. Car wars. Robotics and genetics wars.

    What did the 80s teach us about competition? Serves customer, at expense of what? We will be in Wage, profit margin, contract and condition squeezing competition with not just EU, but all countries we now have trade deals with we burn on EU exit, in order to keep and attract jobs and business - playing into the hands of the globalisation and lost control much of leave vote actually thought they were waving their fists against.

    After the two world wars they said never Again. We will be smarter now. However, Humans only learn its hot by burning themselves, Again. And again.

    Absolutely the 80s taught us that competition works. Competition serves our people, serves our consumers, serves our workers.

    The EU I agree has been a desire to turn our backs on competition, which is why Europe has languished in malaise while Asia and America leapfrogs us. Because pulling up a comfort blanket and pretending competition doesn't exist, simply doesn't work.

    We need to view Europeans not as our communitaire or with solidarite but instead every bit as much our competitors as Asians and Americans are. And if we do that, then we can succeed in this globalised world.

    As we will then face the world as it is, not how we wish it to be.
    For what ? Nothing that any normal human being in the U.K. would give up any loss of economic well being, there is no plus side to brexit, no sunny uplands, no political saviors but I hope you enjoy your new found freedoms when you spend them in the supermarket.
    There is a very clear plus side to Brexit, there will be nowhere to hide for our politicians. The buckpassing game with Brussels must end and we must take responsibility for ourselves. That is a plus.

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.
    Ok good luck with that but I doubt many people voted for what you are putting forward.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Zephyr said:

    Yes. And it has to be because not being in EU doesn’t mean two passive adversaries, it means we are in competition with EU now. Fish wars. Farm wars. Car wars. Robotics and genetics wars.

    What did the 80s teach us about competition? Serves customer, at expense of what? We will be in Wage, profit margin, contract and condition squeezing competition with not just EU, but all countries we now have trade deals with we burn on EU exit, in order to keep and attract jobs and business - playing into the hands of the globalisation and lost control much of leave vote actually thought they were waving their fists against.

    After the two world wars they said never Again. We will be smarter now. However, Humans only learn its hot by burning themselves, Again. And again.

    Absolutely the 80s taught us that competition works. Competition serves our people, serves our consumers, serves our workers.

    The EU I agree has been a desire to turn our backs on competition, which is why Europe has languished in malaise while Asia and America leapfrogs us. Because pulling up a comfort blanket and pretending competition doesn't exist, simply doesn't work.

    We need to view Europeans not as our communitaire or with solidarite but instead every bit as much our competitors as Asians and Americans are. And if we do that, then we can succeed in this globalised world.

    As we will then face the world as it is, not how we wish it to be.
    For what ? Nothing that any normal human being in the U.K. would give up any loss of economic well being, there is no plus side to brexit, no sunny uplands, no political saviors but I hope you enjoy your new found freedoms when you spend them in the supermarket.
    There is a very clear plus side to Brexit, there will be nowhere to hide for our politicians. The buckpassing game with Brussels must end and we must take responsibility for ourselves. That is a plus.

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    If Europe is isolating itself from the world why does it have so many trade agreements with different parts of the world? Far more than anyone else, in fact?

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    AndyJS said:

    I think this could be right. Most voters are sick of miserablist politicians who are always talking about how awful everything is and how the world is about to end if we don't pull our socks up. Boris is a potential antidote to that, and voters welcome it, (at least outside the big cities, where such thinking is in vogue).

    Yes but he is going to run into the sand if No Deal Brexit happens! Optimism can be the mark of niave stupidity!
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    The_Taxman said:

    I doubt Boris will get a 140 majority if he called an election. The Tories are in no position financially or organisationally to fight such an election. It is a fantasy!

    I'm sure the King of the Unicorns can bail them out
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,798
    edited July 2019
    If confirmed in other polls time for Labour to get rid of Corbyn. My guess was they would be equally unpopular but I heard today on radio that Boris would have a £26 billion war chest that Hammond had squirreled away for his next budget.

    You can buy a lot of votes with £26 billion. Probably enough to persuade the MPs that Mrs May's deal wasn't too bad......
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Time continues to stand still for Roger Federer and Serena Williams. :)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,966
    AndyJS said:

    I think this could be right. Most voters are sick of miserablist politicians who are always talking about how awful everything is and how the world is about to end if we don't pull our socks up. Boris is a potential antidote to that, and voters welcome it, (at least outside the big cities, where such thinking is in vogue).

    I think good politician are optimists but Brexit is essentially supported by pessimists, grumpy old men and women living in the past, not sure Brexit and an optimistic politician will be a great mix.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,563
    I don’t see the combined Tory and BXP vote getting above 50% like that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,563
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Zephyr said:

    Yes. And it has to be because not being in EU doesn’t mean two passive adversaries, it means we are in competition with EU now. Fish wars. Farm wars. Car wars. Robotics and genetics wars.

    What did the 80s teach us about competition? Serves customer, at expense of what? We will be in Wage, profit margin, contract and condition squeezing competition with not just EU, but all countries we now have trade deals with we burn on EU exit, in order to keep and attract jobs and business - playing into the hands of the globalisation and lost control much of leave vote actually thought they were waving their fists against.

    After the two world wars they said never Again. We will be smarter now. However, Humans only learn its hot by burning themselves, Again. And again.

    Absolutely the 80s taught us that competition works. Competition serves our people, serves our consumers, serves our workers.

    The EU I agree has been a desire to turn our backs on competition, which is why Europe has languished in malaise while Asia and America leapfrogs us. Because pulling up a comfort blanket and pretending competition doesn't exist, simply doesn't work.

    We need to view Europeans not as our communitaire or with solidarite but instead every bit as much our competitors as Asians and Americans are. And if we do that, then we can succeed in this globalised world.

    As we will then face the world as it is, not how we wish it to be.
    For what ? Nothing that any normal human being in the U.K. would give up any loss of economic well being, there is no plus side to brexit, no sunny uplands, no political saviors but I hope you enjoy your new found freedoms when you spend them in the supermarket.
    There is a very clear plus side to Brexit, there will be nowhere to hide for our politicians. The buckpassing game with Brussels must end and we must take responsibility for ourselves. That is a plus.

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.
    You are living in a dream world. We’ll be sitting beyond the edge of one of the world’s principal economic and political blocs, forced to follow most of its rules. It will always be there to blame whenever the shameless politicians you favour need its services.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,996
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    I'm going to take that poll with a giant pinch of salt

    You might but it had a huge impact on CON MPs and was a key part in Johnson's success.
    Yes that was the point at which Boris's win became inevitable. Had any other contender polled as well we'd have had a real battle but it's clear the majority of backbench Conservative MPs and now Conservative members see Boris as their only hope for continued employment in the case of the former and the continuation of Government in the case of the latter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    On Topic ComRes is a month out of date.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,233
    edited July 2019
    Indeed and I am now of the view only a snap general election in September can pass the Withdrawal Agreement as the current hung parliament will not vote it through or back No Deal either. Only a Boris Tory majority can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, even when Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 it still lost by over 50 votes in the Commons.

    If as rumoured 30 Tory MPs will join with the opposition to back a VONC led by Dominic Grieve and Philip Hammond to stop a Boris premiership leaving open the possibility of Brexit with No Deal on October 31st, a September general election looks very likely
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Boris taking over is probably too little, too late for Brecon and Radnorshire even if the new PM effect is real because of three reasons.

    1: The fact its a by-election allowing protest vote/differential turnout.
    2: The nature of why it was called and the incumbent MPs criminal conviction.
    3: Vast majority of postal voting will surely take place while May is still PM?

    Why does he have to actually have the keys to number 10 to influence the vote?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,990
    The_Taxman said:

    I doubt Boris will get a 140 majority if he called an election. The Tories are in no position financially or organisationally to fight such an election. It is a fantasy!

    Well they're going to have to fight an election at some point and there's no shortage of Conservative politicians with multi-millions to spare.

    Mogg alone is supposedly worth worth nine figures.

    Perhaps he should put his money where his mouth is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,606
    FPT
    nichomar said:

    » show previous quotes
    » show previous quotes
    To be honest that’s very sad I know of no English, welsh or Irish people who wouldn’t support the last home nation team in a competition. It’s petty minded and down right stupid

    Get a sense of humour idiot, it was a bit of banter between myself and tlg86. Get out of victim mode and see the light. Nothing worse than a bad loser, you got humped get over it.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed and I am now of the view only a snap general election in September can pass the Withdrawal Agreement as the current hung parliament will not vote it through or back No Deal either. Only a Boris Tory majority can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, even when Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 it still lost by over 50 votes in the Commons.

    If as rumoured 30 Tory MPs will join with the opposition to back a VONC led by Dominic Grieve and Philip Hammond to stop a Boris premiership leaving open the possibility of Brexit with No Deal on October 31st, a September general election looks very likely

    So if Boris doesn't call a pre-November election, will you conclude that he's not serious about leaving, deal or no deal?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    RobD said:

    I'm going to take that poll with a giant pinch of salt

    In which direction though? The response to the standard VI question generated a 4% Labour lead (27% to 23% Con), which stands out as the largest lead Labour generated in the past month. It's hard on that basis to argue that the sample or methodology was one favouring the Conservatives.

    Yet the same sample of people turned that 4% deficit into a 15% lead on the assumption that Johnson was leading the party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    edited July 2019
    While I don't care for the idea of a huge majority for anyone, I do hope Boris will prove more effective than I fear he will be (which is only partly a comment on him, and more a comment on the entrenched nature of the sides and their extremism) and if that is the case winning a GE would be a reasonable reward given the scale of the task.

    If parliament does finally pass the WA, with or without some tweaks, I'll be both relieved and bloody annoyed - the situation really is not that different to 6 months ago, and if they could pass it under Boris they should have passed it under May. It's not like that would risk May sticking around, she was clear she would go if they did back it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed and I am now of the view only a snap general election in September can pass the Withdrawal Agreement as the current hung parliament will not vote it through or back No Deal either. Only a Boris Tory majority can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, even when Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 it still lost by over 50 votes in the Commons.

    If as rumoured 30 Tory MPs will join with the opposition to back a VONC led by Dominic Grieve and Philip Hammond to stop a Boris premiership leaving open the possibility of Brexit with No Deal on October 31st, a September general election looks very likely

    A September election would not be possible if a VNOC is not passed until Parliament's return in the first week of that month. 10th October might be possible - 17th October more likely.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,082
    If only there could be an election in which the Tory party didn't have to have a policy on Brexit and no one was alllowed to ask them what they would do about Brexit, then Boris Johnson would be in clover.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,990
    noneoftheabove said:

    AndyJS said:

    I think this could be right. Most voters are sick of miserablist politicians who are always talking about how awful everything is and how the world is about to end if we don't pull our socks up. Boris is a potential antidote to that, and voters welcome it, (at least outside the big cities, where such thinking is in vogue).

    I think good politician are optimists but Brexit is essentially supported by pessimists, grumpy old men and women living in the past, not sure Brexit and an optimistic politician will be a great mix.
    Yet it is Remainers who have been predicting imminent disaster for the last three years*, plenty of pessimism from them and grumpiness when the disaster doesn't arrive.

    * Actually 27 years if you go back to the ERM.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,428
    SouthamObserver said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Zephyr said:

    Yes. And it has to be because not being in EU doesn’t mean two passive adversaries, it means we are in competition with EU now. Fish wars. Farm wars. Car wars. Robotics and genetics wars.

    What did the 80s teach us about competition? Serves customer, at expense of what? We will be in Wage, profit margin, contract and condition squeezing competition with not just EU, but all countries we now have trade deals with we burn on EU exit, in order to keep and attract jobs and business - playing into the hands of the globalisation and lost control much of leave vote actually thought they were waving their fists against.

    After the two world wars they said never Again. We will be smarter now. However, Humans only learn its hot by burning themselves, Again. And again.

    Absolutely the 80s taught us that competition works. Competition serves our people, serves our consumers, serves our workers.

    The EU I agree has been a desire to turn our backs on competition, which is why Europe has languished in malaise while Asia and America leapfrogs us. Because pulling up a comfort blanket and pretending competition doesn't exist, simply doesn't work.

    We need to view Europeans not as our communitaire or with solidarite but instead every bit as much our competitors as Asians and Americans are. And if we do that, then we can succeed in this globalised world.

    As we will then face the world as it is, not how we wish it to be.
    For what ? Nothing that any normal human being in the U.K. would give up any loss of economic well being, there is no plus side to brexit, no sunny uplands, no political saviors but I hope you enjoy your new found freedoms when you spend them in the supermarket.
    There is a very clear plus side to Brexit, there will be nowhere to hide for our politicians. The buckpassing game with Brussels must end and we must take responsibility for ourselves. That is a plus.

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    If Europe is isolating itself from the world why does it have so many trade agreements with different parts of the world? Far more than anyone else, in fact?

    And the largest single market in the world?

    Indeed the desire for tarriff protection is a much more legitimate reason for Brexit. Do the people of Scunthorpe want protective steel tarriffs or redundancy?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,445
    Absolutely. I am pleased as punch with my 8/1 on a Con hold of Brecon.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited July 2019
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    I'm going to take that poll with a giant pinch of salt

    You might but it had a huge impact on CON MPs and was a key part in Johnson's success.
    Indeed but I too read this thread as rightly having a bit of tongue in cheek about all the subject matter therein - the Borisgraph really is a turn off for a 'wet' tory like me these days!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,445
    AndyJS said:

    I think this could be right. Most voters are sick of miserablist politicians who are always talking about how awful everything is and how the world is about to end if we don't pull our socks up. Boris is a potential antidote to that, and voters welcome it, (at least outside the big cities, where such thinking is in vogue).

    Let sunshine win the day!

    Says the charming young man as he steals your pension.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Zephyr said:

    Yes. And it has to be because not being in EU doesn’t mean two However, Humans only learn its hot by burning themselves, Again. And again.

    Absolutely the 80s taught us that competition works. Competition serves our people, serves our consumers, serves our workers.

    The EU I agree has been a desire to turn our backs on competition, which is why Europe has languished in malaise while Asia and America leapfrogs us. Because pulling up a comfort blanket and pretending competition doesn't exist, simply doesn't work.

    We need to view Europeans not as our communitaire or with solidarite but instead every bit as much our competitors as Asians and Americans are. And if we do that, then we can succeed in this globalised world.

    As we will then face the world as it is, not how we wish it to be.
    For what ? Nothing that any normal human being in the U.K. would give up any loss of economic well being, there is no plus side to brexit, no sunny uplands, no political saviors but I hope you enjoy your new found freedoms when you spend them in the supermarket.
    There is a very clear plus side to Brexit, there will be nowhere to hide for our politicians. The buckpassing game with Brussels must end and we must take responsibility for ourselves. That is a plus.

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    If Europe is isolating itself from the world why does it have so many trade agreements with different parts of the world? Far more than anyone else, in fact?

    And the largest single market in the world?

    Indeed the desire for tarriff protection is a much more legitimate reason for Brexit. Do the people of Scunthorpe want protective steel tarriffs or redundancy?
    The largest single market in the world is the pro-EU peoples 350 million on the back of a bus. Strip out where there is no single market i.e why can I not buy my petrol from any country in the EU or ciggies or booze and it is not the largest single market in the world.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,741
    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Boris taking over is probably too little, too late for Brecon and Radnorshire even if the new PM effect is real because of three reasons.

    1: The fact its a by-election allowing protest vote/differential turnout.
    2: The nature of why it was called and the incumbent MPs criminal conviction.
    3: Vast majority of postal voting will surely take place while May is still PM?

    Any polling since May stood down will have taken into account that Johnson wil, other things aside, will be PM. I can’t see how formal announcement of the result will do anything to change public perception. So the last poll published is the best measure of that pollsters panel at the time it was surveyed. The Boris bounce should already be apparent.
    We'll see. I expect a bounce in the polls will occur after May has departed Number 10 and Boris has moved in.

    If so, it will be too late for Brecon and Radnorshire.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    And the largest single market in the world?

    Indeed the desire for tarriff protection is a much more legitimate reason for Brexit. Do the people of Scunthorpe want protective steel tarriffs or redundancy?

    The largest single market in the world is the USA. Do you seek to be a member state of the USA?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,407
    another_richard said:

    The_Taxman said:

    I doubt Boris will get a 140 majority if he called an election. The Tories are in no position financially or organisationally to fight such an election. It is a fantasy!

    Well they're going to have to fight an election at some point and there's no shortage of Conservative politicians with multi-millions to spare.

    Mogg alone is supposedly worth worth nine figures.

    Perhaps he should put his money where his mouth is.
    Not in Dublin.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,207
    I read the title of the thread header and assumed that it must have been written by HYUFD!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    nichomar said:

    » show previous quotes
    » show previous quotes
    To be honest that’s very sad I know of no English, welsh or Irish people who wouldn’t support the last home nation team in a competition. It’s petty minded and down right stupid

    Get a sense of humour idiot, it was a bit of banter between myself and tlg86. Get out of victim mode and see the light. Nothing worse than a bad loser, you got humped get over it.

    My humble apologies I failed to see the humor in the post.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    We are Europe. Trying to look beyond Europe without accepting that we are part of it is self-denial.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    Yes, 2017 is the best imaginable riposte to those who think 2007 was a missed opportunity. With a much smaller lead and facing a more formidable campaigner than Corbyn, Brown would have been very lucky if he had ended up even-Steven.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,966
    another_richard said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    AndyJS said:

    I think this could be right. Most voters are sick of miserablist politicians who are always talking about how awful everything is and how the world is about to end if we don't pull our socks up. Boris is a potential antidote to that, and voters welcome it, (at least outside the big cities, where such thinking is in vogue).

    I think good politician are optimists but Brexit is essentially supported by pessimists, grumpy old men and women living in the past, not sure Brexit and an optimistic politician will be a great mix.
    Yet it is Remainers who have been predicting imminent disaster for the last three years*, plenty of pessimism from them and grumpiness when the disaster doesn't arrive.

    * Actually 27 years if you go back to the ERM.
    It is indeed a failure of the remain, centrist politicians to not have owned the successes of the Blair and Cameron years, resulting in them getting blamed for the problems with the public ignoring the positives. We need better and more positive politicians generally. The UK is a great country with many positive achievements, but Brexit will make us less great.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    We are Europe. Trying to look beyond Europe without accepting that we are part of it is self-denial.
    We are part of the world. Europe is merely a small part of it and we are heading into 2020 and beyond not 1950. Geography just doesn't matter that much anymore.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    If an election returned the same result as the last one the Tories should count themselves fortunate - inasmuch as anyone 'won' that one, they still came closer than anyone else did despite going backwards.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    We are Europe. Trying to look beyond Europe without accepting that we are part of it is self-denial.
    We are part of the world. Europe is merely a small part of it and we are heading into 2020 and beyond not 1950. Geography just doesn't matter that much anymore.
    Define England or the UK without reference to geography.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    We are Europe. Trying to look beyond Europe without accepting that we are part of it is self-denial.
    We are part of the world. Europe is merely a small part of it and we are heading into 2020 and beyond not 1950. Geography just doesn't matter that much anymore.
    Define England or the UK without reference to geography.
    Bad pop music.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.

    The company I helped set up, took to market and remain a shareholder of does over 50% of its business outside Europe. The EU has never got in the way. All Brexit will do is reduce our incentives to invest in our London operation and invest more in our US and Hong Kong offices. Ceasing to be part of a market of 450 million people has that effect.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Maffairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    We are Europe. Trying to look beyond Europe without accepting that we are part of it is self-denial.
    We are part of the world. Europe is merely a small part of it and we are heading into 2020 and beyond not 1950. Geography just doesn't matter that much anymore.
    Define England or the UK without reference to geography.
    Do you think you can do that for Europe as well without someone objecting to your definition?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,813
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    Just watching the link. (again). It's pretty clear Howe got it wrong.

    At the time I thought he had a decent point.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Define England or the UK without reference to geography.

    That's talking about our own nation's borders. Europe is not our own nation and its borders are not that significant in our globalised age. Europe is merely one relatively small continent, with other more important continents on this globe of ours.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Omnium said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    Just watching the link. (again). It's pretty clear Howe got it wrong.

    At the time I thought he had a decent point.
    Howe got it absolutely right, and in time it will become received wisdom that staying out of the single currency sent the UK down a political cul-de-sac of self-satisfaction that ended in the humiliation of Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,233
    edited July 2019
    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    At the last general election Corbyn promised Leave voters he would deliver Brexit, he has not done that so many will now vote Brexit Party and he suggested to Remain voters he would stop Brexit, he has not done that either so many are now voting LD or Green.

    Thus a general election in the autumn would be a different prospect to 2017 especially if the Tories minimise their leakage of 2017 Tory voters to the Brexit Party if they are led by a Leaver like Boris promising to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal if he gets a mandate and the majority he is currently denied
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Define England or the UK without reference to geography.

    That's talking about our own nation's borders. Europe is not our own nation and its borders are not that significant in our globalised age. Europe is merely one relatively small continent, with other more important continents on this globe of ours.
    Why do you place outsized importance on national borders if you mean what you say about globalisation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    South Africa appear to be doing what South Africa do best.

    If they lose to the sandboy having had them 100-5, surely du Plessis is finished, along with Amla.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    We are Europe. Trying to look beyond Europe without accepting that we are part of it is self-denial.
    We are part of the world. Europe is merely a small part of it and we are heading into 2020 and beyond not 1950. Geography just doesn't matter that much anymore.

    It’s just a coincidence that the EU is our most important export market by far.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    And also with Gordon Brown in not doing so too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,233
    edited July 2019
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed and I am now of the view only a snap general election in September can pass the Withdrawal Agreement as the current hung parliament will not vote it through or back No Deal either. Only a Boris Tory majority can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, even when Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 it still lost by over 50 votes in the Commons.

    If as rumoured 30 Tory MPs will join with the opposition to back a VONC led by Dominic Grieve and Philip Hammond to stop a Boris premiership leaving open the possibility of Brexit with No Deal on October 31st, a September general election looks very likely

    A September election would not be possible if a VNOC is not passed until Parliament's return in the first week of that month. 10th October might be possible - 17th October more likely.
    I expect a VONC by summer recess, though even 17th October is still 14 days before the extension runs out if Boris wins a majority and thus has a mandate to deliver Brexit
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Define England or the UK without reference to geography.

    That's talking about our own nation's borders. Europe is not our own nation and its borders are not that significant in our globalised age. Europe is merely one relatively small continent, with other more important continents on this globe of ours.
    Why do you place outsized importance on national borders if you mean what you say about globalisation?
    I don't place outsize importance on national borders. I place outsized importance on control and democracy. Hence my laid back attitude to the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish as to whether they want to remain part of the United Kingdom or leave it. My preference is for them to go their own ways, but I won't kick them out and for as long as they want to tag along with us I'm OK with that.

    National boundaries don't matter, what matters is we can elect the leaders who set our laws and we have the control to be agile in this globalised world of ours. Hence why small is beautiful rather than big, because smaller countries can be more agile then behemoth outsized blocs, unless there is a central unified state to take control.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,207
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    At the last general election Corbyn promised Leave voters he would deliver Brexit, he has not done that so many will now vote Brexit Party and he suggested to Remain voters he would stop Brexit, he has not done that either so many are now voting LD or Green.

    Thus a general election in the autumn would be a different prospect to 2017 especially if the Tories minimise their leakage of 2017 Tory voters to the Brexit Party if they are led by a Leaver like Boris promising to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal if he gets a mandate and the majority he is currently denied
    Of course Corbyn hasn't delivered anything - Labour didn't win the election.

    In contrast, the Conservatives formed a government and have also failed to deliver anything, other than a nebulous promise to achieve 'net zero' by 2050.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,813
    williamglenn said:

    Omnium said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    Just watching the link. (again). It's pretty clear Howe got it wrong.

    At the time I thought he had a decent point.
    Howe got it absolutely right, and in time it will become received wisdom that staying out of the single currency sent the UK down a political cul-de-sac of self-satisfaction that ended in the humiliation of Brexit.
    Well, we'll see. It's a little disappointing that we can't follow two (or more) paths.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,233
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Macmillan took us into EFTA in 1960, we should have stayed there rather than join the EEC in 1973 under Heath
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,233
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    At the last general election Corbyn promised Leave voters he would deliver Brexit, he has not done that so many will now vote Brexit Party and he suggested to Remain voters he would stop Brexit, he has not done that either so many are now voting LD or Green.

    Thus a general election in the autumn would be a different prospect to 2017 especially if the Tories minimise their leakage of 2017 Tory voters to the Brexit Party if they are led by a Leaver like Boris promising to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal if he gets a mandate and the majority he is currently denied
    Of course Corbyn hasn't delivered anything - Labour didn't win the election.

    In contrast, the Conservatives formed a government and have also failed to deliver anything, other than a nebulous promise to achieve 'net zero' by 2050.
    Corbyn has refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, has refused to vote for No Deal and thus refused to vote for Brexit and he has refused to commit to EUref2 or revoke either and thus also refused to vote to stop Brexit
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Macmillan took us into EFTA in 1960, we should have stayed there rather than join the EEC in 1973 under Heath
    Why did Macmillan apply to join the EEC in 1961?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    SouthamObserver said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:



    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.



    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    We are Europe. Trying to look beyond Europe without accepting that we are part of it is self-denial.
    We are part of the world. Europe is merely a small part of it and we are heading into 2020 and beyond not 1950. Geography just doesn't matter that much anymore.

    It’s just a coincidence that the EU is our most important export market by far.

    I take a much simpler view of Europe, I’m proud to be a European, my grandfather died to ensure a Europe free from tyranny, that has provided a home for former soviet satellite states, that celebrates our different cultures and languages. I have no interest in so called freedoms which are irrelevant to most people, I’m yet to meet anybody who can give me a single example of how the EU has impacted their life for the worse. What the hell are we playing at throwing 40 odd years down the drain for god knows what? Emotional? Yes but have never seen any argument which convinces me we will be either financially or democratically better off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    YEEEESSSS! Go South Africa!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,233
    edited July 2019
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Macmillan took us into EFTA in 1960, we should have stayed there rather than join the EEC in 1973 under Heath
    Why did Macmillan apply to join the EEC in 1961?
    He was mistaken and De Gaulle rightly vetoed the application as we are an Anglo Saxon, global trading nation not a continental one
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,794
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    I hope your geography teacher didn’t last long in the profession
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Macmillan took us into EFTA in 1960, we should have stayed there rather than join the EEC in 1973 under Heath
    Why did Macmillan apply to join the EEC in 1961?
    He was mistaken and De Gaulle rightly vetoed the application as we are an Atlantacist, global trading nation not a continental one
    Ah yes, the curious phenomenon of British ultra-patriots deciding that Charles De Gaulle's self-serving veto as the final word on Britain.

    As Duncan Sandys said at the time, "We are faced with the veto of one misguided man who seems to think that France is Europe and that he is France. But I refuse absolutely to believe that this temporary obstruction can, for very long, block or deflect the natural course of history."
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,794
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    At the last general election Corbyn promised Leave voters he would deliver Brexit, he has not done that so many will now vote Brexit Party and he suggested to Remain voters he would stop Brexit, he has not done that either so many are now voting LD or Green.

    Thus a general election in the autumn would be a different prospect to 2017 especially if the Tories minimise their leakage of 2017 Tory voters to the Brexit Party if they are led by a Leaver like Boris promising to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal if he gets a mandate and the majority he is currently denied
    “...he is currently denied.” You speak as if he has a right to a majority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    I hope your geography teacher didn’t last long in the profession
    Went on to teach politics at Oxford, perhaps?

    It does remind me of Dubya's famous comment that 'we live in a global world these days.'
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,794
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Macmillan took us into EFTA in 1960, we should have stayed there rather than join the EEC in 1973 under Heath
    Why did Macmillan apply to join the EEC in 1961?
    He was mistaken and De Gaulle rightly vetoed the application as we are an Anglo Saxon, global trading nation not a continental one
    “Anglo-Saxon”????
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Macmillan took us into EFTA in 1960, we should have stayed there rather than join the EEC in 1973 under Heath
    Why did Macmillan apply to join the EEC in 1961?
    He was mistaken and De Gaulle rightly vetoed the application as we are an Anglo Saxon, global trading nation not a continental one
    “Anglo-Saxon”????
    We tell others to fuck off?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,794
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    At the last general election Corbyn promised Leave voters he would deliver Brexit, he has not done that so many will now vote Brexit Party and he suggested to Remain voters he would stop Brexit, he has not done that either so many are now voting LD or Green.

    Thus a general election in the autumn would be a different prospect to 2017 especially if the Tories minimise their leakage of 2017 Tory voters to the Brexit Party if they are led by a Leaver like Boris promising to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal if he gets a mandate and the majority he is currently denied
    Of course Corbyn hasn't delivered anything - Labour didn't win the election.

    In contrast, the Conservatives formed a government and have also failed to deliver anything, other than a nebulous promise to achieve 'net zero' by 2050.
    Corbyn has refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, has refused to vote for No Deal and thus refused to vote for Brexit and he has refused to commit to EUref2 or revoke either and thus also refused to vote to stop Brexit
    He has no executive position within the government. He can’t “deliver” any form of policy. That’s the job of the Conservative Government - something it has failed to do. Time for another party to get a chance maybe? The Conservatives gave us May after all. Now they are saying “sorry, made a mistake there, but the next one will be SO much better!” How many chances do you expect?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The world is globalised whether we want it to be or not. Acknowledging that and dropping the European comfort blanket that pretends to keep the barbarians at the gate and allow Europe to isolate itself from the world doesn't work. We need to face the world as it is and view Europe, Asia and America all as our competitors. As that is exactly what they are.

    I struggle to see how seeing the rest of the world as our competitors leads you to think that shooting ourselves in the foot is a good idea.
    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.
    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    I hope your geography teacher didn’t last long in the profession
    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    edited July 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    I hope your geography teacher didn’t last long in the profession

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.
    You have visited almost all the continents you have lived in?

    Your geography teacher's inadequacies pale beside those of your English teahcer!

    Edit - and amusingly, there is a typing error in that post...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    At the last general election Corbyn promised Leave voters he would deliver Brexit, he has not done that so many will now vote Brexit Party and he suggested to Remain voters he would stop Brexit, he has not done that either so many are now voting LD or Green.

    Thus a general election in the autumn would be a different prospect to 2017 especially if the Tories minimise their leakage of 2017 Tory voters to the Brexit Party if they are led by a Leaver like Boris promising to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal if he gets a mandate and the majority he is currently denied
    Of course Corbyn hasn't delivered anything - Labour didn't win the election.

    In contrast, the Conservatives formed a government and have also failed to deliver anything, other than a nebulous promise to achieve 'net zero' by 2050.
    Corbyn has refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, has refused to vote for No Deal and thus refused to vote for Brexit and he has refused to commit to EUref2 or revoke either and thus also refused to vote to stop Brexit
    He has no executive position within the government. He can’t “deliver” any form of policy. That’s the job of the Conservative Government - something it has failed to do. Time for another party to get a chance maybe? The Conservatives gave us May after all. Now they are saying “sorry, made a mistake there, but the next one will be SO much better!” How many chances do you expect?
    I think one chance of a leaver seeking to get us to leave would be a good start.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    I hope your geography teacher didn’t last long in the profession

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.
    You have visited almost all the continents you have lived in?

    Your geography teacher's inadequacies pale beside those of your English teahcer!
    Them being continents in general not continents I've lived in specifically. I have visited five continents.

    Though I'm not sure what my "teahcer" has to do with it if you want to be a Grammar Nazi. Isn't it amusing that whenever someone tries to pick up on someone else's grammar online they almost invariably make a mistake themselves.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    What about if a Scotsman told you that?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    No I would not! I'd agree with them and think they were on the right path.

    Businesses in Yorkshire should be facing the world and not just embracing our own island or continent.

    Individuals in Yorkshire need to face the reality of living in a globalised world.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    What about if a Scotsman told you that?
    Those are not the arguments that the case for Scottish indepedence is based on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    edited July 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    I hope your geography teacher didn’t last long in the profession

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.
    You have visited almost all the continents you have lived in?

    Your geography teacher's inadequacies pale beside those of your English teahcer!
    Them being continents in general not continents I've lived in specifically. I have visited five continents.

    Though I'm not sure what my "teahcer" has to do with it if you want to be a Grammar Nazi. Isn't it amusing that whenever someone tries to pick up on someone else's grammar online they almost invariably make a mistake themselves.
    Absolutely! But what you actually said was that you had visited practically all of the continents you had lived on. I was wondering how you had lived in a place without visiting it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    What about if a Scotsman told you that?
    Those are not the arguments that the case for Scottish indepedence is based on.
    Scottish independence isn't based on the idea that Scotland can cope better in the world led by Scots than by the English? I disagree.

    Scottish independence makes sense for the same reason Brexit does. Its the same logic for both.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited July 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    No I would not! I'd agree with them and think they were on the right path.

    Businesses in Yorkshire should be facing the world and not just embracing our own island or continent.

    Individuals in Yorkshire need to face the reality of living in a globalised world.
    You don't think those individuals and businesses should encourage Yorkshire to be independent so it could do it's own trade deal with China, optimised to maximise the market for local products like Yorksire Tea?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    Well, that was the wrong wicket, but it was worth taking I suppose.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,990
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    We have recent experience of how well governing parties do when they're ahead in the polls and try to cash in with a snap election. :)

    At the last general election Corbyn promised Leave voters he would deliver Brexit, he has not done that so many will now vote Brexit Party and he suggested to Remain voters he would stop Brexit, he has not done that either so many are now voting LD or Green.

    Thus a general election in the autumn would be a different prospect to 2017 especially if the Tories minimise their leakage of 2017 Tory voters to the Brexit Party if they are led by a Leaver like Boris promising to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal if he gets a mandate and the majority he is currently denied
    Of course Corbyn hasn't delivered anything - Labour didn't win the election.

    In contrast, the Conservatives formed a government and have also failed to deliver anything, other than a nebulous promise to achieve 'net zero' by 2050.
    Actually I'd say that the Corbyn put a stop to the plans to freeze the level at which students repay their tuition fees debt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/01/tuition-fee-repayment-earnings-threshold-rise-to-25000
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    No I would not! I'd agree with them and think they were on the right path.

    Businesses in Yorkshire should be facing the world and not just embracing our own island or continent.

    Individuals in Yorkshire need to face the reality of living in a globalised world.
    Genuine question asi want to understand you better.
    Have you ever stood for public office?
    Have you served on any non for profit making bodies?
    Do you run or help with any of the organizations that your children belong to?
    You may think it’s irrelevant but I’d be interested in the answer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    No I would not! I'd agree with them and think they were on the right path.

    Businesses in Yorkshire should be facing the world and not just embracing our own island or continent.

    Individuals in Yorkshire need to face the reality of living in a globalised world.
    You don't think those individuals and businesses should encourage Yorkshire to be independent so it could do it's own trade deal with China, optimised to maximise the market for local products like Yorksire Tea?
    If Yorkshire can be better led by Yorkshire men and women, there is a popular demand for it and the interests diverge from those of other counties then why not?

    So far there is zero evidence of any popular demand for that so it is moot.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,990
    williamglenn said:

    Omnium said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.

    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    Just watching the link. (again). It's pretty clear Howe got it wrong.

    At the time I thought he had a decent point.
    Howe got it absolutely right, and in time it will become received wisdom that staying out of the single currency sent the UK down a political cul-de-sac of self-satisfaction that ended in the humiliation of Brexit.
    Out of interest to what level would you have raised interest rates to keep the UK in the ERM ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    another_richard said:

    williamglenn said:

    Omnium said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    I don't view controlling our own destiny to be shooting ourselves in the foot. More like releasing the binds from our feet that prevent us from being agile.

    It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    Rather depressing and retrograde outlook viewing yourself as merely 'living within Europe'.

    We are about to enter the 2020s not the 1950s. We live in a globalised world.

    We live in the world, not Europe. Europe will be our competitors, which will be good for us, healthy competition is good. But more importantly our competitors are Asia and America. We need to look beyond Europe and not back to it.
    Just watching the link. (again). It's pretty clear Howe got it wrong.

    At the time I thought he had a decent point.
    Howe got it absolutely right, and in time it will become received wisdom that staying out of the single currency sent the UK down a political cul-de-sac of self-satisfaction that ended in the humiliation of Brexit.
    Out of interest to what level would you have raised interest rates to keep the UK in the ERM ?
    I would have devalued and renegotiated lower bands.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    another_richard said:

    The_Taxman said:

    I doubt Boris will get a 140 majority if he called an election. The Tories are in no position financially or organisationally to fight such an election. It is a fantasy!

    Well they're going to have to fight an election at some point and there's no shortage of Conservative politicians with multi-millions to spare.

    Mogg alone is supposedly worth worth nine figures.

    Perhaps he should put his money where his mouth is.
    I doubt Mogg would give the Tories a substantial donation. He probably thinks he does his bit being an MP. Certainly in the past I believe Michael Heseltine took this view!

    The thing about snap elections is they take months to plan at campaign headquarters and of course in the constitiences. A party needs voter contact for months leading up to an election in marginal seats. I am sorry but the Tories are not going to have an election unless they are forced. Its not just canvassing but leaflets, telephone calls, social media advertising, data analysis and all the other activities associated with elections.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    There is nothing wrong with my geography and as someone who has lived in multiple continents and visited almost all of them, I think some people's obsession with our small continent to be archaic and parochial. There's a big wide world out there and Europe is one small part of it.

    If a Yorkshireman told you that Yorkshire needed to become global and the obsession with our small island was 'archaic and parochial', you'd probably think they were mad.
    No I would not! I'd agree with them and think they were on the right path.

    Businesses in Yorkshire should be facing the world and not just embracing our own island or continent.

    Individuals in Yorkshire need to face the reality of living in a globalised world.
    Genuine question asi want to understand you better.
    Have you ever stood for public office?
    Have you served on any non for profit making bodies?
    Do you run or help with any of the organizations that your children belong to?
    You may think it’s irrelevant but I’d be interested in the answer.
    Not public office per se, but 17-19 years ago I repeatedly stood for election in Student Union politics (winning 3 elections, losing 2) and took a full part in that for years including going to the NUS Conference. Incidentally as an independent not aligned with any party and simply seeking to serve student interests as I saw them.

    Served how? I have all my life spent a lot of time fundraising for charities close to my heart.

    No. My children are 3 and 5. The 3 year old is not involved in any organisations and the 5 year old goes to school, which again I have done fundraising for but I'm not on the PTA.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,590
    Yeeesss. This is the way Australia enter the semi finals, with a brutal hammering at the hands of the tournament's third weakest team.
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