politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead down to just 3pc in the March Ipsos-MORI poll
@IpsosMORI March poll finds the LDs winning battle on who should get most credit for boosting tax free allowance
45% say LD
33% say CON
Comments
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The data tables are out now
http://ipsos-mori.co.uk/researchpublications/researcharchive/3356/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-March-2014.aspx0 -
And the first shall be the last ....
Except when TSE cheats ....0 -
Leader ratings (changes in brackets from last month)
Cameron -19 (-1)
Milband - 21 (nc)
Clegg - 31 (+8)
Farage -10 (nc)
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Crossover imminent?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cameron -19 (-1)
Milband - 21 (nc)0 -
Day 3 Cheltenham. "STJOHN" only managed one placed horse yesterday. Better luck hoped for today.
1.30 Wonderful Charm each way at 11/2
2.05 On the Bridge each way at 20/1 5 places (Skybet)
2.40 Menorach win at 8/1
3.20 Rule The World each way at 10/1 (NAP)
4.00 Shangani each way at 20/1
4.40 Indian Castle each way at 13/2
Good luck to all.0 -
Oi!JackW said:And the first shall be the last ....
Except when TSE cheats ....
I beat you fair and square!
It's not my fault I'm quick.
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So where is the pre-budget bombshell?0
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I would urge caution - we have had YouGovs with leads of 3 and 4 in a row before and then it bounces back to 7 or even 9.
Average lead in recent weeks has been about 5.5 overall.
This week we have:
YouGov 7, 4, 2
Populus 4
ICM 3
MORI 3
Straight average of those 6 polls is 3.8 - so somewhat below the recent average of 5.5, but not massively.
Even so, enough to give a hint of optimism to the Con side.0 -
Possibly. Has been close recently.Neil said:
Crossover imminent?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cameron -19 (-1)
Milband - 21 (nc)
Satisfaction with Nick Clegg has risen slightly, with 29% now satisfied with his performance as Deputy Prime Minister and 60% dissatisfied. His net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) is now -31, up from -39 in February.
David Cameron ratings have remained steady among the public at large, with 37% satisfied and 56% dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -19. Among Conservative supporters, his satisfaction levels are the highest since March 2012; 81% are satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister, with 18% dissatisfied. Giving him a net rating of +63 among Conservatives.
Ed Miliband’s ratings are in line with last month with a net rating of -21: 32% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader, while 53% are dissatisfied. Half (51%) of Labour supporters are satisfied with his performance, while 37% are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of +14 among Labour supporters.
Nigel Farage’s net rating is at -10. 31% are satisfied in his performance as UKIP leader and 41% are dissatisfied, while three in ten (28%) still say they “don’t know”.
Net satisfaction in the performance of the government is at -26, with 33% satisfied and 59% dissatisfied.0 -
Labour's lead is at 8, when you take in all voters.0
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You bounder !!TheScreamingEagles said:
Oi!JackW said:And the first shall be the last ....
Except when TSE cheats ....
I beat you fair and square!
It's not my fault I'm quick.
"Quick" you say .... in the city it's called insider trading !!
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With this sort of reduction in lead , the tories are even better value at the euros at the price they are0
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Rule the world :O !stjohn said:Day 3 Cheltenham. "STJOHN" only managed one placed horse yesterday. Better luck hoped for today.
1.30 Wonderful Charm each way at 11/2
2.05 On the Bridge each way at 20/1 5 places (Skybet)
2.40 Menorach win at 8/1
3.20 Rule The World each way at 10/1 (NAP)
4.00 Shangani each way at 20/1
4.40 Indian Castle each way at 13/2
Good luck to all.
I've backed Annie, Zarkandar (E/W) and Big Bucks (Free bet) in that one.
Menorah is in an E/W double with Felix Yonger !
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Did anyone else read Joe Murphy's tweet about this poll not pleasing Tory backbenchers to mean Labour was going to have a huge stonking lead?
Or was it just me?0 -
Coming back to the Euros - do the polls justify UKIP having even a decent chance of winning?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.0 -
Decent poll for Lab when you look at the internals actually
Near crossover on the gold standard leader ratings
Good lead on all voters
That said, we don't know the effect of ReferendumGate - personally I expect a short term hit for Lab but probably worth doing to get it out of the way.
We shall see.0 -
Are you thinking lovingly about tim? I know I am.Neil said:
Crossover imminent?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cameron -19 (-1)
Milband - 21 (nc)0 -
I speculated at the close of the last thread as to whether the Labour IPSOS lead was greater than OGH's bald patch.
When will crossover take place .... Is Mike Smithson planning on a Bobby Charlton crossover before the Tories inch ahead of Labour ? .... I think PB should be told !!0 -
Also thinking about it over lunchtime walk was that Italy could also draw with England and France only need to beat Ireland and also that the England game is first . If Italy do beat England , France will be more motivated and know exactly what they need to do (ie not take risks as they only need to win). I doubt they will still be that much odds against in thie rmatch with Ireland if that's the case
The more I think about it 33/1 is exactly right.
Tip -If you fancy a long odds double put Italy and France wins in a double as the two are slightly interdependent if you ask me but the odds don't reflect that (due to the timing difference in the matches)0 -
Whenever I sip a cocktail.JohnO said:
Are you thinking lovingly about tim?Neil said:
Crossover imminent?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cameron -19 (-1)
Milband - 21 (nc)0 -
Cheltenham 2.05
Grand Vision
0.5point Each Way @ 14/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 2.05
Josies Orders
0.5point Each Way @ 12/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 3.20
Zarkandar
0.5point Each Way @ 16/1
Ladbrokes refunding stakes if Annie Power wins
Cheltenham 4.00
Champion Court
1.0point Each Way @ 12/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 4.40
Cause Of Causes
1.0point Each Way @ 7/1
BetFred paying first five places
@Raceclear tips
Also I've added:
Menorah 0.5 pt E/W
Felix Yonger 1 PT Win
Menorah/Felix Yonger 0.5 PT E/W Double
Zarkandar
0.5point Each Way @ 16/1 (Bumped to 1 PT)
1 PT WIN Annie Power (SP, Placed with Betfred double SP paid if she wins by more than 4 lengths)
And used a 1 PT Free Bet on !Big Bucks! to win that I got off Will Hills yesterday.0 -
Always with the caveat that YouGov bounces around, it looks like the 7 is a hangover.MikeL said:I would urge caution - we have had YouGovs with leads of 3 and 4 in a row before and then it bounces back to 7 or even 9.
Average lead in recent weeks has been about 5.5 overall.
This week we have:
YouGov 7, 4, 2
Populus 4
ICM 3
MORI 3
Straight average of those 6 polls is 3.8 - so somewhat below the recent average of 5.5, but not massively.
Even so, enough to give a hint of optimism to the Con side.
This would suggest to me that the Labour lead has tightened to around 3-4 points (vs. 5-6 point YTD and 7-9 during 2H13)0 -
Havn't been following the crossover market that much (no bets) but am I right in thinking its done on quarters? A few people who have a Q1 2014 bet may just have a chance0
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I'm not sure how the bookies are making any profit on Cheltenham with all these free bets and moneyback specials.Pulpstar said:Cheltenham 2.05
Grand Vision
0.5point Each Way @ 14/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 2.05
Josies Orders
0.5point Each Way @ 12/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 3.20
Zarkandar
0.5point Each Way @ 16/1
Ladbrokes refunding stakes if Annie Power wins
Cheltenham 4.00
Champion Court
1.0point Each Way @ 12/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 4.40
Cause Of Causes
1.0point Each Way @ 7/1
BetFred paying first five places
@Raceclear tips
I think I've had three winners at Cheltenham this year, and I'm still in profit.0 -
UKIP got 22% at the May 2013 locals. I'd expect them to improve on that at the EU Parliament elections.MikeL said:Coming back to the Euros - do the polls justify UKIP having even a decent chance of winning?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.
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I've made some additions to the header0
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No, that was my assumption. Why would tory backbenchers not be happy with this? Labour on 35 is probably much more significant that the tories picking up a percent. With the Lib Dems starting a modest recovery (from a catastrophic base) is the 35% methodology finally under threat?TheScreamingEagles said:Did anyone else read Joe Murphy's tweet about this poll not pleasing Tory backbenchers to mean Labour was going to have a huge stonking lead?
Or was it just me?
For the reasons on the previous thread the budget is hardly going to be a give away but good headlines are reasonably likely.
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I assumed it was going to be UKIP doing well!TheScreamingEagles said:Did anyone else read Joe Murphy's tweet about this poll not pleasing Tory backbenchers to mean Labour was going to have a huge stonking lead?
Or was it just me?0 -
The 8% LAB lead amongst all who responded is probably a better guide to the marginals where there be heavy GOTV operations designed.0
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IF the euros was a Cheltenham race then Labour would be leading a bit towards the last ,stumble over it to allow UKIP to draw level running up the hill, both tiring as the Tories come up the rear . All three cross the line for a three way photo finish . May depend on who puts in the hard work in the last furlong!!anotherDave said:
UKIP got 22% at the May 2013 locals. I'd expect them to improve on that at the EU Parliament elections.MikeL said:Coming back to the Euros - do the polls justify UKIP having even a decent chance of winning?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.0 -
My Cheltenham bets
13:30 - Taquin Du Seuil 9/1
14.05 - Jetson 9/1
14:40 - Boston Bob 9/1
15:20 - Celestial Halo 28/1
16:00 - Ballynagour 14/1
16:40 - Buddy Bolero 14/10 -
Nah. People who don't vote, don't vote.MikeSmithson said:The 8% LAB lead amongst all who responded is probably a better guide to the marginals where there be heavy GOTV operations designed.
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Public sector strike action ahoy?
http://news.sky.com/story/1225231/anger-as-thousands-of-nurses-denied-1-percent-rise0 -
Off-topic:
Without making this an engineering- or HS2- fest, John Bishop has narrated a little ditty about HS2 (h/t Guido). In it, he shows a rather curious inability to grasp 'facts' ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfRN-ZFaxh40 -
I am funding themTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not sure how the bookies are making any profit on Cheltenham0 -
19% of people who are likely to vote in a general election amounts to a far higher percentage of the people who are likely to vote in a European election.MikeL said:Coming back to the Euros - do the polls justify UKIP having even a decent chance of winning?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.
And, plenty of people who have no intention of voting UKIP at Parliamentary level will still vote for them in the Euros.
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The government may be benefitting from the 'recovery' that's taking place. It makes me so angry that no-one is prepared to shout out what a bogus recovery this is, how we're just going back to the bad old days pre-2008 with the coalition having achieved next to nothing in economic policy terms. At least the ex-Goldman Governor of the Bank of England, about whom I have my doubts, was prepared to admit that the recovery was neither balanced or sustainable. However Labour don't want to highlight their own failures in government so the coalition gets a free pass when they should be getting a pasting.0
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And we have done this repeatedly. Turnout in marginals is not statistically higher than the average. It tends to be lower than in safe tory seats but higher than safe Labour seats. In other words the social make up of the seat has a far greater effect on turnout than whether it is a marginal or not.Charles said:
Nah. People who don't vote, don't vote.MikeSmithson said:The 8% LAB lead amongst all who responded is probably a better guide to the marginals where there be heavy GOTV operations designed.
The effect on turnout of GOTV is greatly overrated. A few hundred at best. Although I accept those hundreds can make the difference in the result.
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How much higher is the turnout in marginal seats compared to safe ones, and is there a difference between Tory and Labour safe constituencies? I'd guess - not sure where to find the evidence - that the marginals maybe slightly higher but not appreciably so. But there is a wider gap in turnout between Tory and Labour safe seats.MikeSmithson said:The 8% LAB lead amongst all who responded is probably a better guide to the marginals where there be heavy GOTV operations designed.
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What matters most is getting one's own supporters to turn out. Cameron can be reasonably pleased that his approval level is 37%, compared to 31% for Milliband. Milliband, Clegg, and Farage have similar approval ratings, among the public.Neil said:
Crossover imminent?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cameron -19 (-1)
Milband - 21 (nc)
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A poster on UK Polling Report claimed Labour was 'doing a UKIP', and asking LD supporters to 'lend their vote' to Labour for the EU Parliament elections. Has anyone seen this happening?state_go_away said:
IF the euros was a Cheltenham race then Labour would be leading a bit towards the last ,stumble over it to allow UKIP to draw level running up the hill, both tiring as the Tories come up the rear . All three cross the line for a three way photo finish . May depend on who puts in the hard work in the last furlong!!anotherDave said:
UKIP got 22% at the May 2013 locals. I'd expect them to improve on that at the EU Parliament elections.MikeL said:Coming back to the Euros - do the polls justify UKIP having even a decent chance of winning?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.
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By elections in County Council divisions have shown UKIP maintaining the same level of support that they won in 2013, so it's a fair assumption that UKIP will do about as well in local elections on May 22nd as they did last year.anotherDave said:
UKIP got 22% at the May 2013 locals. I'd expect them to improve on that at the EU Parliament elections.MikeL said:Coming back to the Euros - do the polls justify UKIP having even a decent chance of winning?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.
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Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw0 -
All we can hope for is that Vince Cable does what Peter Thorneycroft and Enoch Powell (yes I know) did and resign from the government in objection to its policies. After the budget would be the ideal timing. What does Vince have left in front of him? He'll be 72 at the next election and even if there's another coalition, the Lib Dems will be no more than 10% in all likelihood and being lead by the same fool they are now.
Vince could cause a political earthquake with a dramtic resignation and help to reframe the debate in this country. I can't see he' going to achieve much in government.0 -
Changes from a year ago
All certain to vote
Con Plus 5, Lab minus 5, LD plus 2, Kippers minus 2
All voters
Con plus 1, Lab minus 2, LD no change, Kippers minus 1
Leader ratings
Dave plus 11
Ed plus 1
Nick plus 12
Nigel minus 19
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Might you consider throwing your hat in the ring for local elections in the future ?Sean_F said:
By elections in County Council divisions have shown UKIP maintaining the same level of support that they won in 2013, so it's a fair assumption that UKIP will do about as well in local elections on May 22nd as they did last year.anotherDave said:
UKIP got 22% at the May 2013 locals. I'd expect them to improve on that at the EU Parliament elections.MikeL said:Coming back to the Euros - do the polls justify UKIP having even a decent chance of winning?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.
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Ha Ha. Course he could.Frank_Booth said:
Vince could cause a political earthquake with a dramtic resignation.
Silly old fool would be doing everyone a favour if he stepped down, but as you say at nearly 72 he wouldn't have the chance to enjoy the trappings of power any more should that happen.0 -
Looking at those leader ratings changes, Nick and Dave are on the charge, and Nigel is on the slide. Ed is meh and close to Hague's leader ratings at the equivalent time.0
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Mr. Jessop, Thanks for bringing that little film to our attention. What are the facts that Mr. Bishop is not grasping?JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Without making this an engineering- or HS2- fest, John Bishop has narrated a little ditty about HS2 (h/t Guido). In it, he shows a rather curious inability to grasp 'facts' ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfRN-ZFaxh40 -
Interesting report from RICS about a cooling in the housing market. I guess what happens in china has as much significance as what happens in Britain these days, maybe even more.
The point is, It would help the coalition if property stabilized for a year and wages caught up a bit.0 -
So two polls in as many days from two of the best pollsters putting Labour's lead at 3%. It's getting to the stage where we can say the election will be extremely close as far as the popular vote is concerned.0
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Time for him to storm off was when people thought he was a good economist. Flogging Royal Mail for a substantial discount to its actual worth means that a lot less people take him seriouslyTheWatcher said:
Ha Ha. Course he could.Frank_Booth said:
Vince could cause a political earthquake with a dramtic resignation.
Silly old fool would be doing everyone a favour if he stepped down.0 -
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
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Really?TheScreamingEagles said:Changes from a year ago
All certain to vote
Con Plus 5, Lab minus 5, LD plus 2, Kippers minus 2
All voters
Con plus 1, Lab minus 2, LD no change, Kippers minus 1
Leader ratings
Dave plus 11
Ed plus 1
Nick plus 12
Nigel minus 19
Wow, those were not the changes I was expecting wrt UKIP. How out of phase was the poll from a year ago with this one? (it might be interesting to compare this latest poll with the average of the three centred on a year ago).
I know I'm technically breaking my rule not to comment on individual polls. But as this is a comparison between two polls, I think I can just about get away with it.0 -
Maybe in the GE but not the eurosMikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw0 -
Page 10 of this document may help answer some of those questions:JohnO said:
How much higher is the turnout in marginal seats compared to safe ones, and is there a difference between Tory and Labour safe constituencies? I'd guess - not sure where to find the evidence - that the marginals maybe slightly higher but not appreciably so. But there is a wider gap in turnout between Tory and Labour safe seats.MikeSmithson said:The 8% LAB lead amongst all who responded is probably a better guide to the marginals where there be heavy GOTV operations designed.
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file4e3ff1393b87a.pdf0 -
@toadmeister: Ironic that just when @Ed_Miliband adopts an EU strategy that only works if LAB stays ahead in the polls, LAB’s lead starts to slip...0
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The point to note for me here is not the narrowing gap - but the fact that Labour's polling is falling. We've seen the gap all over the shop in recent months due to Tory moves, but with Labour very steady in the very high 30s. This one shows them down to 35%.
One poll. MOA and all that. But is Labour's previously rock solid polling starting to wobble? The teachers planning to vote Yellow again or something?0 -
This poll Baxtered:
Lab 338
Con 253
LD 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=32&TVCON=&LAB=35&TVLAB=&LIB=13&TVLIB=&UKIP=3.17®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--
Labour through the winning post — but only by 12 seats.0 -
? Mr Farage is no change on last month, and Mr Cameron is down 0.5 points.TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at those leader ratings changes, Nick and Dave are on the charge, and Nigel is on the slide. Ed is meh and close to Hague's leader ratings at the equivalent time.
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It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw0 -
I was talking about the changes from a year agoanotherDave said:
? Mr Farage is no change on last month, and Mr Cameron is down 0.5 points.TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at those leader ratings changes, Nick and Dave are on the charge, and Nigel is on the slide. Ed is meh and close to Hague's leader ratings at the equivalent time.
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Mike your wrong,it's labour this week who have been obsessing over Europe,tories can point out which parties are not democratic like the libs/lab.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
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If you compare it year on year, the Con and Lab movements are beyond MoE.Patrick said:The point to note for me here is not the narrowing gap - but the fact that Labour's polling is falling. We've seen the gap all over the shop in recent months due to Tory moves, but with Labour very steady in the very high 30s. This one shows them down to 35%.
One poll. MOA and all that. But is Labour's previously rock solid polling starting to wobble? The teachers planning to vote Yellow again or something?
Ipsos March 2013: Con 27%, Lab 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
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Most of the critiques of the "unbalanced" recovery have shown themselves to be nonsense. I linked to this piece by David Smith a week or so ago: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001997.html#more
He said:
"In the year to the final quarter of 2013, GDP rose by 2.7%. Consumer spending rose by a reasonable 2.4% over that period - slower than overall GDP - and its rise was dwarfed by the increase in overall investment, 8.7%, and business investment, which rose by 8.5%.
Consumers played their part in the recovery. Of the 2.7% rise in GDP, 1.5 percentage points came from consumer spending. Their contribution to growth, just over half, was however smaller than their long-run 62% share of GDP.
Investment, meanwhile, accounted for a percentage point of the GDP rise, and there were also contributions from net trade (exports minus imports) and government spending. If there was a glitch it was that net trade only contributed 0.1 points to the 2.7% growth rate. Much of that, however, reflected an unusually bad third quarter of 2013, when for no obvious reason Britain’s trade lurched into much bigger deficit."
So investment is runing ahead of consumption and the net trade situation is making a modest contribution despite our economy growing so much faster than our main trading partners.
The problem remains that the UK has a horrific deficit and a terrifying structural deficit. The steps taken to address these points, although welcome, are not nearly sufficient. Politicians promising to bribe us with our own money or even with taxes on bankers bonuses (not in fairness promised for something else for nearly 4 days now) have got to go and stay out of fashion for a very, very long time.
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The huge problem for Labour is the winning post isn't available today but on May 7th next year.AndyJS said:This poll Baxtered:
Lab 338
Con 253
LD 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=32&TVCON=&LAB=35&TVLAB=&LIB=13&TVLIB=&UKIP=3.17®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--
Labour through the winning post — but only by 12 seats.
An opposition party leading by a few points at this point in the electoral cycle is in the do do.
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Cameron will be hoping so. That, as it were, is the play.SeanT said:
But now (cf my prior post) there is less reason for division. Miliband has made himself the common enemy. He will not give Brits a vote. The Tories have an opposite and settled position - they WILL offer an in/out referendum.Grandiose said:
It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Of course when/if this referendum arrives it will smash the Tory party into pieces - but that's tomorrow's problem. For the moment and up to the GE there is no reason for them to bicker and every reason for them to work together to defeat voter-hating, europerving Labour.0 -
The Tories will be claiming they'll offer a referendum. But after being in government for five years when they did not offer a referendum, that's not a very credible pitch.SeanT said:
But now (cf my prior post) there is less reason for division. Miliband has made himself the common enemy. He will not give Brits a vote. The Tories have an opposite and settled position - they WILL offer an in/out referendum.Grandiose said:
It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Of course when/if this referendum arrives it will smash the Tory party into pieces - but that's tomorrow's problem. For the moment and up to the GE there is no reason for them to bicker and every reason for them to work together to defeat voter-hating, europerving Labour.
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The real margin of error could be bigger than the statistical one. Take the adjustment for certainty for example. We'd have to know if that were right or wrong before drawing our conclusions, because it could make worse (or better) the sampling effect.anotherDave said:
If you compare it year on year, the Con and Lab movements are beyond MoE.Patrick said:The point to note for me here is not the narrowing gap - but the fact that Labour's polling is falling. We've seen the gap all over the shop in recent months due to Tory moves, but with Labour very steady in the very high 30s. This one shows them down to 35%.
One poll. MOA and all that. But is Labour's previously rock solid polling starting to wobble? The teachers planning to vote Yellow again or something?
Ipsos March 2013: Con 27%, Lab 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20130 -
The thing to remember is that even if the Tories get a lead of 7% they would still be losing seats to Labour0
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So Con +5% and Labour -5% in 12 months. Crossover therefore to take place at 33.5% each this summer. Or, more astonishingly, Con 38% and Lab 29% in May 2015!anotherDave said:
If you compare it year on year, the Con and Lab movements are beyond MoE.Patrick said:The point to note for me here is not the narrowing gap - but the fact that Labour's polling is falling. We've seen the gap all over the shop in recent months due to Tory moves, but with Labour very steady in the very high 30s. This one shows them down to 35%.
One poll. MOA and all that. But is Labour's previously rock solid polling starting to wobble? The teachers planning to vote Yellow again or something?
Ipsos March 2013: Con 27%, Lab 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20130 -
Miliband has given the voters a say in their own destiny just as much as Cameron has. If they think that an EU referendum is a hugely important issue it is clear that they should vote Tory at the next GE.SeanT said:
That is usually true. But this time it might be different, as Tory obsessing with Europe can now be contrasted with an equally unnappetising spectacle: Milliband's arrogant refusal to give the voters a say in their own destiny.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Voters don't care about the EU, they DO care about politicians who seem elitist, devious and dismissive of the people.
Moreover, Mlliband has now given the eurosceptic right a common enemy.
No matter how much Tories and UKIP disagree about the minutiae of Europe, Cameron IS offering Britons a vote. Miliband has airily denied us the same. It is possible therefore that this will calm internal Tory and UKIP squabbling, as they unite in loathing Labour.
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Only if Labour match the efficiency they achieved in 2010 for their vote. If they are nearer 2005 7% will have the tories picking up seats.MikeSmithson said:The thing to remember is that even if the Tories get a lead of 7% they would still be losing seats to Labour
All to play for but a majority for anyone is looking less likely with every 1% rise in the Lib Dem vote.
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Farage increasingly looks like a lightweight and a time waster (saying the 2010 manifesto was drivel, dissing Neil Hamilton) and I think will look even more so after the Clegg debates. The electorate does like politicians who at least pretend to take it seriously.JosiasJessop said:
Really?TheScreamingEagles said:Changes from a year ago
All certain to vote
Con Plus 5, Lab minus 5, LD plus 2, Kippers minus 2
All voters
Con plus 1, Lab minus 2, LD no change, Kippers minus 1
Leader ratings
Dave plus 11
Ed plus 1
Nick plus 12
Nigel minus 19
Wow, those were not the changes I was expecting wrt UKIP. How out of phase was the poll from a year ago with this one? (it might be interesting to compare this latest poll with the average of the three centred on a year ago).
I know I'm technically breaking my rule not to comment on individual polls. But as this is a comparison between two polls, I think I can just about get away with it.
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The thing to remember is that differential turnout in the marginals will slash Labour to electoral defeat.MikeSmithson said:The thing to remember is that even if the Tories get a lead of 7% they would still be losing seats to Labour
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
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Labour Blackburn shortlist
Kate Hollern (local council leader)
Ann Courtney (from Rochdale)
Sara Ibrahim (barrister living in London)
Naheed Arshad-Mather (Hudderfield Cllr)
Hollern has 25 nominations from wards and affiliates branches. Courtney 8, Ibrahim 6 and Arshad-Mather 5.
Selections on March 30th
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Get the feck in.
Taquin wins it!0 -
I think the main fact he has grasped is that his £2.25 million house is going to be near to HS2. I also wasn't going to analyse it as I don't have much time. But leaving that aside:HurstLlama said:
Mr. Jessop, Thanks for bringing that little film to our attention. What are the facts that Mr. Bishop is not grasping?
1) He claims the treasury says HS2 will cost £73 billion. They did not; it is an alleged briefing from someone in the treasury. You may or may not get this figure if you include VAT and inflation, which as far as I know is not done on such projects because a) VAT is mostly reclaimable (it was on HS1 and will be, I think, on Crossrail), and inflation is uncertain. I'd be interested on any UK infrastructure projects where these are taken into account?
2) It will only solve overcrowding by a fraction. Which is not believed to be the truth (although that depends on the projected traffic growth). If rail traffic shrinks, capacity problems go away. But I've heard no-one seriously claim that. Instead, growth is forecast to continue increasing.
3) It'll save 20 minutes from London to Birmingham. I'd be interested to know where they got that figure from, and whether they are comparing 'fastest' or 'standard' journey times, as the latter are more representative. (1)
4) Camden will be a building site for eight years. Perhaps. But the same can be said for any large infrastructure project, e.g. Tottenham Court Road on Crossrail. Why this obsession with Camden?
5) Woodlands 'destroyed', hedgerows 'destroyed', communities 'devastated' and unique wildlife habitats 'destroyed'. He's on firmer ground here, but the same can be said for any infrastructure project. The project plans also currently includes wildlife and vegetation mitigation, including replantings. It's one of the reasons the project costs so darned much.
6) The only diversion is around Osborne's Tatton constituency at a cost of £600 million. This old chestnut has been out for some time, and can easily be disproved by looking at the plans (and especially the rejected routings) (3). He may have more of a point about Clegg's Kink up near Sheffield.
7) £8 billion will be cut from existing rail services. Again, I'd like to know where they're getting that from, especially as this government is investing £37.5 billion in non-HS2 railways between 2014 and 2019. (2)
Basically, it's a puddle of p!ss.
(1): http://www.hs2.org.uk/phase-two/facts-figures
(2): http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/08/network-rail-35bn-pound-investment-plan
(3): https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/68959/hs2-phase-two-engineering-options-report-west-midlands-to-manchester-part-2.pdf0 -
If you're expecting Mr Farage to not set out the 'Better off out' case in the Clegg/Farage debates, I think you'll be disappointed.Ishmael_X said:
Farage increasingly looks like a lightweight and a time waster (saying the 2010 manifesto was drivel, dissing Neil Hamilton) and I think will look even more so after the Clegg debates. The electorate does like politicians who at least pretend to take it seriously.JosiasJessop said:
Really?TheScreamingEagles said:Changes from a year ago
All certain to vote
Con Plus 5, Lab minus 5, LD plus 2, Kippers minus 2
All voters
Con plus 1, Lab minus 2, LD no change, Kippers minus 1
Leader ratings
Dave plus 11
Ed plus 1
Nick plus 12
Nigel minus 19
Wow, those were not the changes I was expecting wrt UKIP. How out of phase was the poll from a year ago with this one? (it might be interesting to compare this latest poll with the average of the three centred on a year ago).
I know I'm technically breaking my rule not to comment on individual polls. But as this is a comparison between two polls, I think I can just about get away with it.
I expect Mr Clegg to stick to his dishonest '3 million jobs' soundbite, and vague 'scary world' rhetoric.
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David Smith seems to be a real favourite economist amongst Tories who still want to defend the free market. In the grand scheme of things he is basically a non-entity.
Let me pose a challenge. How many countries in the OECD can people name that had a lower savings rate and/or a lower investment rate than the UK in 2013? The CIA website has 2013 estimates.0 -
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God knows why he's done it just before the Euro elections, it will help to boost Tories and/or Ukip. Maybe he wants a bit of Clegg's "party of in", or maybe it was the only way to fit it in the schedule. Maybe they just needed to get a few businesses on board.SeanT said:
Well, quite. He's given some people a reason to vote Tory, who might otherwise have not. Much more importantly, he has made himself look anti-democratic, elitist and arrogant. That is the significance.SouthamObserver said:
Miliband has given the voters a say in their own destiny just as much as Cameron has. If they think that an EU referendum is a hugely important issue it is clear that they should vote Tory at the next GE.SeanT said:
That is usually true. But this time it might be different, as Tory obsessing with Europe can now be contrasted with an equally unnappetising spectacle: Milliband's arrogant refusal to give the voters a say in their own destiny.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Voters don't care about the EU, they DO care about politicians who seem elitist, devious and dismissive of the people.
Moreover, Mlliband has now given the eurosceptic right a common enemy.
No matter how much Tories and UKIP disagree about the minutiae of Europe, Cameron IS offering Britons a vote. Miliband has airily denied us the same. It is possible therefore that this will calm internal Tory and UKIP squabbling, as they unite in loathing Labour.
Of course it may not harm him that much, but if I were a Tory spindoktor, I'd be hammering this home every minute of the day until the GE: why can't we have a vote, Ed? Why don't you trust the voters? Why can't the English vote when Labour was happy to let the Scots and Welsh vote? Do you think the voters are too stupid to understand?
These are uncomfortable questions for Miliband.0 -
Are we witnessing the beginning of swingback?
UKIP are getting alot of scrutiny now - and much as I empathise with their core mission I can also see very clearly some of my co-ideologues in the UKIP fold are the sort who scare the horses. Come the GE a chunk will return to Dave. Not a majority but a decent sized chunk.
And have the Yellows now passed rock bottom to a mini rehabilitation? Labour are apparently slowly shedding their converts back towards a core vote. Dave would sell his granny to see the left becoming re-split.0 -
To be fair, they are in Coalition and the LibDems opposed/voted against a referendum when it was proposed.anotherDave said:
The Tories will be claiming they'll offer a referendum. But after being in government for five years when they did not offer a referendum, that's not a very credible pitch.SeanT said:
But now (cf my prior post) there is less reason for division. Miliband has made himself the common enemy. He will not give Brits a vote. The Tories have an opposite and settled position - they WILL offer an in/out referendum.Grandiose said:
It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Of course when/if this referendum arrives it will smash the Tory party into pieces - but that's tomorrow's problem. For the moment and up to the GE there is no reason for them to bicker and every reason for them to work together to defeat voter-hating, europerving Labour.0 -
Potentially. I suppose Ed has made a call on whether Labour-inclined voters will be that bothered by this and I suspect that he is right to have concluded that they are not. Bob Crow wanted an EU referendum, but he was never going to vote Tory to get one. Where Ed may have miscalculated is in how many UKIP voters this drives into Tory hands. We'll have to see about that. But is a perfectly reasonable and democratic position to go into an election saying we are basically happy with the UK being in the EU and we do not believe a referendum is necessary unless extra powers are transferred to Brussels. If Ed then spends four weeks answering questions about it that would imply that the Tories had indeed decided to major on the EU as a campaign theme. Ed might not be too upset about that in terms of a 35% for victory strategy.SeanT said:
Well, quite. He's given some people a reason to vote Tory, who might otherwise have not. Much more importantly, he has made himself look anti-democratic, elitist and arrogant. That is the significance.SouthamObserver said:
Miliband has given the voters a say in their own destiny just as much as Cameron has. If they think that an EU referendum is a hugely important issue it is clear that they should vote Tory at the next GE.SeanT said:
That is usually true. But this time it might be different, as Tory obsessing with Europe can now be contrasted with an equally unnappetising spectacle: Milliband's arrogant refusal to give the voters a say in their own destiny.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Voters don't care about the EU, they DO care about politicians who seem elitist, devious and dismissive of the people.
Moreover, Mlliband has now given the eurosceptic right a common enemy.
No matter how much Tories and UKIP disagree about the minutiae of Europe, Cameron IS offering Britons a vote. Miliband has airily denied us the same. It is possible therefore that this will calm internal Tory and UKIP squabbling, as they unite in loathing Labour.
Of course it may not harm him that much, but if I were a Tory spindoktor, I'd be hammering this home every minute of the day until the GE: why can't we have a vote, Ed? Why don't you trust the voters? Why can't the English vote when Labour was happy to let the Scots and Welsh vote? Do you think the voters are too stupid to understand?
These are uncomfortable questions for Miliband.
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Someone who disses Neil Hamilton (which I missed, btw) is, by definition, a lightweight.Ishmael_X said:
Farage increasingly looks like a lightweight and a time waster (saying the 2010 manifesto was drivel, dissing Neil Hamilton) and I think will look even more so after the Clegg debates. The electorate does like politicians who at least pretend to take it seriously.JosiasJessop said:
Really?TheScreamingEagles said:Changes from a year ago
All certain to vote
Con Plus 5, Lab minus 5, LD plus 2, Kippers minus 2
All voters
Con plus 1, Lab minus 2, LD no change, Kippers minus 1
Leader ratings
Dave plus 11
Ed plus 1
Nick plus 12
Nigel minus 19
Wow, those were not the changes I was expecting wrt UKIP. How out of phase was the poll from a year ago with this one? (it might be interesting to compare this latest poll with the average of the three centred on a year ago).
I know I'm technically breaking my rule not to comment on individual polls. But as this is a comparison between two polls, I think I can just about get away with it.
Most serious people don't notice him0 -
The irony is that if he had the guts to just come out and say, "Hell yeah they're too stupid understand, have you met some of them?" then tell a few stories conversations he'd had with dim-witted voters over the years, most voters, stupid as they may be, probably would understand.SeanT said:Of course it may not harm him that much, but if I were a Tory spindoktor, I'd be hammering this home every minute of the day until the GE: why can't we have a vote, Ed? Why don't you trust the voters? Why can't the English vote when Labour was happy to let the Scots and Welsh vote? Do you think the voters are too stupid to understand?
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Yes - he's only the top financial journo for the biggest selling Sunday paper in the Uk - a nobody.Frank_Booth said:David Smith seems to be a real favourite economist amongst Tories who still want to defend the free market. In the grand scheme of things he is basically a non-entity.
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I don't think some bod calling UKIP 'nasty' is a problem for UKIP. And sneering at those opposed to open door immigration is not sneering at UKIP, that's sneering at the majority of the electorate.SeanT said:
Yet even the vaguest of Tory referendum promises is better than the NO F*CKING WAY, THE VOTERS ARE TOO DIM just enunciated by Ed Miliband.anotherDave said:
The Tories will be claiming they'll offer a referendum. But after being in government for five years when they did not offer a referendum, that's not a very credible pitch.SeanT said:
But now (cf my prior post) there is less reason for division. Miliband has made himself the common enemy. He will not give Brits a vote. The Tories have an opposite and settled position - they WILL offer an in/out referendum.Grandiose said:
It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Of course when/if this referendum arrives it will smash the Tory party into pieces - but that's tomorrow's problem. For the moment and up to the GE there is no reason for them to bicker and every reason for them to work together to defeat voter-hating, europerving Labour.
For hardcore kippers, of course, this won't matter much, they hate everyone. But I don't think that many Brits are hardcore kippers - 5% max.
Talking of which, Stewart Lee (a lefty comedian who irritates and yet possesses genius) did a brilliant riff on UKIP at the weekend. It starts at eight minutes in and lasts about ten minutes (IIRC):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03y41vd/Stewart_Lees_Comedy_Vehicle_Series_3_England/
A party which can be lampooned this viciously and effectively has a problem - and I LIKE Farage and have sympathies for UKIP.
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I disagree. The SNP were a minority administration in the last Scottish Parliament, and they did not table an Indy Referendum when it was inevitable that it would be voted down. The SNP gained a majority at the last Holyrood elections, and we are going to have an Indy Referendum in this Parliament. So its entirely credible to suggest that if the Conservatives gain a majority at the next GE, we are going to have an In/Out Referendum in the next Parliament. If they don't, we won't. So all those UKIP voters who do care about our EU membership and want to see such a Referendum have only one choice at the polling booth at the next GE, and it ain't UKIP.anotherDave said:
The Tories will be claiming they'll offer a referendum. But after being in government for five years when they did not offer a referendum, that's not a very credible pitch.SeanT said:
But now (cf my prior post) there is less reason for division. Miliband has made himself the common enemy. He will not give Brits a vote. The Tories have an opposite and settled position - they WILL offer an in/out referendum.Grandiose said:
It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Of course when/if this referendum arrives it will smash the Tory party into pieces - but that's tomorrow's problem. For the moment and up to the GE there is no reason for them to bicker and every reason for them to work together to defeat voter-hating, europerving Labour.0 -
From Dave in the Knesset:
“[Israeli technology] is providing Britain’s National Health Service with one in six of its prescription medicines through Teva and it has produced the world’s first commercially available upright walking technology which enabled a British paraplegic woman to walk the 2012 London Marathon. And together British and Israeli technical expertise can achieve so much more.”
All those advocating boycotts of whatever kind against Israel should, of course, be refusing these medicines and demanding their removal. I wonder if they are.
Source: http://hurryupharry.org/2014/03/12/bdsers-heres-your-chance-for-martyrdom/0 -
@JohnRentoul: Alarmist report by @atulh of unions trying to rewrite Labour special conference vote http://t.co/ASLpqgMil2
Remember, this is GREAT news for Ed...0 -
In 2011 the majority of the parliamentary Conservative Party voted against a referendum.Charles said:
To be fair, they are in Coalition and the LibDems opposed/voted against a referendum when it was proposed.anotherDave said:
The Tories will be claiming they'll offer a referendum. But after being in government for five years when they did not offer a referendum, that's not a very credible pitch.SeanT said:
But now (cf my prior post) there is less reason for division. Miliband has made himself the common enemy. He will not give Brits a vote. The Tories have an opposite and settled position - they WILL offer an in/out referendum.Grandiose said:
It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Of course when/if this referendum arrives it will smash the Tory party into pieces - but that's tomorrow's problem. For the moment and up to the GE there is no reason for them to bicker and every reason for them to work together to defeat voter-hating, europerving Labour.
The government's "Balance of Competences" review of the UK/EU policy split has not recommended any changes. They find nothing wrong with the status quo.
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F1: less than 12 hours until P1.
Incidentally, as mentioned on the previous thread, I've backed Williams to top score (Ladbrokes) at 5.5. This is based partly on pace and largely on reliability.0 -
No one actually wants an EU referendum as a good thing in itself.
Some people want Britain to leave the EU.
Some people want Britain to stay in the EU.
Those that want Britain to leave see a referendum as a mechanism for achieving that policy goal.
Those who want Britain in the EU already have their policy goal. Why on Earth would they have a referendum on changing from the policy they want to the policy they don't want?
All this claptrap about "denying the British people a say" is so much petty resentment from self-important whining children.
We all get to have our say on the future government of the UK in May 2015. If you want that future government to pull Britain out of the EU, vote UKIP.
I'm no Scottish Nationalist, but at least in Scotland it was quite clear that, if you wanted Scotland to leave the UK, you should vote SNP. It took them a while to get there, but now they have their referendum, and they didn't spend the years since devolution whining that Labour and the Lib Dems were "denying Scots their voice". They got on with winning the damned elections.
But if you really think Ed and Nick are "denying the British people a say" by putting forward their policies prior to the general election and not having a referendum on one particular policy afterwards, here are a few other matters on which not only Nick and Ed, but also Dave and Nigel are "denying the British people a say":
Welfare
Pensions
The NHS
The BBC
Scientific and medical research
Defence policy
Our continued membership of NATO
Our continued membership of the UN
International development
Immigration
Carbon emissions reduction
Our continued membership of the European Space Agency
Communications interception
Criminal justice
...some of which are quite important. Shall we have a referendum on each of them? Or shall we continue to have a representative democracy, with all its foibles?0 -
The parliamentary party voted against because they disagreed with the *tactics* not the strategy. You have a vote now, and OUT loses & I spend the rest of my life with Britain in the EU. Time it right and there may be a chance of OUT winning.anotherDave said:
In 2011 the majority of the parliamentary Conservative Party voted against a referendum.Charles said:
To be fair, they are in Coalition and the LibDems opposed/voted against a referendum when it was proposed.anotherDave said:
The Tories will be claiming they'll offer a referendum. But after being in government for five years when they did not offer a referendum, that's not a very credible pitch.SeanT said:
But now (cf my prior post) there is less reason for division. Miliband has made himself the common enemy. He will not give Brits a vote. The Tories have an opposite and settled position - they WILL offer an in/out referendum.Grandiose said:
It's not the obsession per se, but the almost ubiquitous division it generates.MikeSmithson said:
Ashcroft is right. The more the Tories are seen to be obsessing over Europe the more it helps Miliband.Scott_P said:Why did Ed write the Tory Euro election posters?
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Of course when/if this referendum arrives it will smash the Tory party into pieces - but that's tomorrow's problem. For the moment and up to the GE there is no reason for them to bicker and every reason for them to work together to defeat voter-hating, europerving Labour.
The government's "Balance of Competences" review of the UK/EU policy split has not recommended any changes. They find nothing wrong with the status quo.
The "government" isn't a Tory government, it's a Coalition. In addition, the nature of our relationship with the EU is a political judgement, not one that will be decided by the civil service0 -
Is that the case still ?MikeSmithson said:The thing to remember is that even if the Tories get a lead of 7% they would still be losing seats to Labour
I can see that it works in a 3 party system, but on 4 I'm less convinced. Cameron could lose 3-4% is his Southern bastions and still scoop up all the seats.
Really the precentage only counts at some level if we have a HP where Cameron could advance a case based on most votes if he didn't get most seats.0 -
How close is that race!0
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