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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead down to just 3pc in the March Ipsos-MORI poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead down to just 3pc in the March Ipsos-MORI poll
@IpsosMORI March poll finds the LDs winning battle on who should get most credit for boosting tax free allowance
45% say LD
33% say CON
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http://ipsos-mori.co.uk/researchpublications/researcharchive/3356/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-March-2014.aspx
Except when TSE cheats ....
Cameron -19 (-1)
Milband - 21 (nc)
Clegg - 31 (+8)
Farage -10 (nc)
1.30 Wonderful Charm each way at 11/2
2.05 On the Bridge each way at 20/1 5 places (Skybet)
2.40 Menorach win at 8/1
3.20 Rule The World each way at 10/1 (NAP)
4.00 Shangani each way at 20/1
4.40 Indian Castle each way at 13/2
Good luck to all.
I beat you fair and square!
It's not my fault I'm quick.
Average lead in recent weeks has been about 5.5 overall.
This week we have:
YouGov 7, 4, 2
Populus 4
ICM 3
MORI 3
Straight average of those 6 polls is 3.8 - so somewhat below the recent average of 5.5, but not massively.
Even so, enough to give a hint of optimism to the Con side.
Satisfaction with Nick Clegg has risen slightly, with 29% now satisfied with his performance as Deputy Prime Minister and 60% dissatisfied. His net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) is now -31, up from -39 in February.
David Cameron ratings have remained steady among the public at large, with 37% satisfied and 56% dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -19. Among Conservative supporters, his satisfaction levels are the highest since March 2012; 81% are satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister, with 18% dissatisfied. Giving him a net rating of +63 among Conservatives.
Ed Miliband’s ratings are in line with last month with a net rating of -21: 32% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader, while 53% are dissatisfied. Half (51%) of Labour supporters are satisfied with his performance, while 37% are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of +14 among Labour supporters.
Nigel Farage’s net rating is at -10. 31% are satisfied in his performance as UKIP leader and 41% are dissatisfied, while three in ten (28%) still say they “don’t know”.
Net satisfaction in the performance of the government is at -26, with 33% satisfied and 59% dissatisfied.
"Quick" you say .... in the city it's called insider trading !!
I've backed Annie, Zarkandar (E/W) and Big Bucks (Free bet) in that one.
Menorah is in an E/W double with Felix Yonger !
Or was it just me?
If we look at yesterday's ICM like/dislike figures and assume nobody who dislikes UKIP will vote UKIP then to get to 30% UKIP would need the votes of 100% of people who like them + 50% of people who neither like nor dislike them.
But surely many of those people who neither like nor dislike UKIP will be committed supporters of Con, Lab or LD.
On the face of it, it appears hard to see how UKIP could exceed around 25% to 26%.
Near crossover on the gold standard leader ratings
Good lead on all voters
That said, we don't know the effect of ReferendumGate - personally I expect a short term hit for Lab but probably worth doing to get it out of the way.
We shall see.
When will crossover take place .... Is Mike Smithson planning on a Bobby Charlton crossover before the Tories inch ahead of Labour ? .... I think PB should be told !!
The more I think about it 33/1 is exactly right.
Tip -If you fancy a long odds double put Italy and France wins in a double as the two are slightly interdependent if you ask me but the odds don't reflect that (due to the timing difference in the matches)
Grand Vision
0.5point Each Way @ 14/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 2.05
Josies Orders
0.5point Each Way @ 12/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 3.20
Zarkandar
0.5point Each Way @ 16/1
Ladbrokes refunding stakes if Annie Power wins
Cheltenham 4.00
Champion Court
1.0point Each Way @ 12/1
Bet365 paying first five places
Cheltenham 4.40
Cause Of Causes
1.0point Each Way @ 7/1
BetFred paying first five places
@Raceclear tips
Also I've added:
Menorah 0.5 pt E/W
Felix Yonger 1 PT Win
Menorah/Felix Yonger 0.5 PT E/W Double
Zarkandar
0.5point Each Way @ 16/1 (Bumped to 1 PT)
1 PT WIN Annie Power (SP, Placed with Betfred double SP paid if she wins by more than 4 lengths)
And used a 1 PT Free Bet on !Big Bucks! to win that I got off Will Hills yesterday.
This would suggest to me that the Labour lead has tightened to around 3-4 points (vs. 5-6 point YTD and 7-9 during 2H13)
I think I've had three winners at Cheltenham this year, and I'm still in profit.
For the reasons on the previous thread the budget is hardly going to be a give away but good headlines are reasonably likely.
13:30 - Taquin Du Seuil 9/1
14.05 - Jetson 9/1
14:40 - Boston Bob 9/1
15:20 - Celestial Halo 28/1
16:00 - Ballynagour 14/1
16:40 - Buddy Bolero 14/1
http://news.sky.com/story/1225231/anger-as-thousands-of-nurses-denied-1-percent-rise
Without making this an engineering- or HS2- fest, John Bishop has narrated a little ditty about HS2 (h/t Guido). In it, he shows a rather curious inability to grasp 'facts' ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfRN-ZFaxh4
And, plenty of people who have no intention of voting UKIP at Parliamentary level will still vote for them in the Euros.
The effect on turnout of GOTV is greatly overrated. A few hundred at best. Although I accept those hundreds can make the difference in the result.
@Michael_Ellis1: It is clear that only @Conservatives will give the British people a say with an In/Out Referendum. #LetBritainDecide http://t.co/VagWVDLHrw
Vince could cause a political earthquake with a dramtic resignation and help to reframe the debate in this country. I can't see he' going to achieve much in government.
All certain to vote
Con Plus 5, Lab minus 5, LD plus 2, Kippers minus 2
All voters
Con plus 1, Lab minus 2, LD no change, Kippers minus 1
Leader ratings
Dave plus 11
Ed plus 1
Nick plus 12
Nigel minus 19
Silly old fool would be doing everyone a favour if he stepped down, but as you say at nearly 72 he wouldn't have the chance to enjoy the trappings of power any more should that happen.
The point is, It would help the coalition if property stabilized for a year and wages caught up a bit.
Wow, those were not the changes I was expecting wrt UKIP. How out of phase was the poll from a year ago with this one? (it might be interesting to compare this latest poll with the average of the three centred on a year ago).
I know I'm technically breaking my rule not to comment on individual polls. But as this is a comparison between two polls, I think I can just about get away with it.
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file4e3ff1393b87a.pdf
One poll. MOA and all that. But is Labour's previously rock solid polling starting to wobble? The teachers planning to vote Yellow again or something?
Lab 338
Con 253
LD 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=32&TVCON=&LAB=35&TVLAB=&LIB=13&TVLIB=&UKIP=3.17®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--
Labour through the winning post — but only by 12 seats.
Ipsos March 2013: Con 27%, Lab 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
He said:
"In the year to the final quarter of 2013, GDP rose by 2.7%. Consumer spending rose by a reasonable 2.4% over that period - slower than overall GDP - and its rise was dwarfed by the increase in overall investment, 8.7%, and business investment, which rose by 8.5%.
Consumers played their part in the recovery. Of the 2.7% rise in GDP, 1.5 percentage points came from consumer spending. Their contribution to growth, just over half, was however smaller than their long-run 62% share of GDP.
Investment, meanwhile, accounted for a percentage point of the GDP rise, and there were also contributions from net trade (exports minus imports) and government spending. If there was a glitch it was that net trade only contributed 0.1 points to the 2.7% growth rate. Much of that, however, reflected an unusually bad third quarter of 2013, when for no obvious reason Britain’s trade lurched into much bigger deficit."
So investment is runing ahead of consumption and the net trade situation is making a modest contribution despite our economy growing so much faster than our main trading partners.
The problem remains that the UK has a horrific deficit and a terrifying structural deficit. The steps taken to address these points, although welcome, are not nearly sufficient. Politicians promising to bribe us with our own money or even with taxes on bankers bonuses (not in fairness promised for something else for nearly 4 days now) have got to go and stay out of fashion for a very, very long time.
An opposition party leading by a few points at this point in the electoral cycle is in the do do.
All to play for but a majority for anyone is looking less likely with every 1% rise in the Lib Dem vote.
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
Kate Hollern (local council leader)
Ann Courtney (from Rochdale)
Sara Ibrahim (barrister living in London)
Naheed Arshad-Mather (Hudderfield Cllr)
Hollern has 25 nominations from wards and affiliates branches. Courtney 8, Ibrahim 6 and Arshad-Mather 5.
Selections on March 30th
Taquin wins it!
1) He claims the treasury says HS2 will cost £73 billion. They did not; it is an alleged briefing from someone in the treasury. You may or may not get this figure if you include VAT and inflation, which as far as I know is not done on such projects because a) VAT is mostly reclaimable (it was on HS1 and will be, I think, on Crossrail), and inflation is uncertain. I'd be interested on any UK infrastructure projects where these are taken into account?
2) It will only solve overcrowding by a fraction. Which is not believed to be the truth (although that depends on the projected traffic growth). If rail traffic shrinks, capacity problems go away. But I've heard no-one seriously claim that. Instead, growth is forecast to continue increasing.
3) It'll save 20 minutes from London to Birmingham. I'd be interested to know where they got that figure from, and whether they are comparing 'fastest' or 'standard' journey times, as the latter are more representative. (1)
4) Camden will be a building site for eight years. Perhaps. But the same can be said for any large infrastructure project, e.g. Tottenham Court Road on Crossrail. Why this obsession with Camden?
5) Woodlands 'destroyed', hedgerows 'destroyed', communities 'devastated' and unique wildlife habitats 'destroyed'. He's on firmer ground here, but the same can be said for any infrastructure project. The project plans also currently includes wildlife and vegetation mitigation, including replantings. It's one of the reasons the project costs so darned much.
6) The only diversion is around Osborne's Tatton constituency at a cost of £600 million. This old chestnut has been out for some time, and can easily be disproved by looking at the plans (and especially the rejected routings) (3). He may have more of a point about Clegg's Kink up near Sheffield.
7) £8 billion will be cut from existing rail services. Again, I'd like to know where they're getting that from, especially as this government is investing £37.5 billion in non-HS2 railways between 2014 and 2019. (2)
Basically, it's a puddle of p!ss.
(1): http://www.hs2.org.uk/phase-two/facts-figures
(2): http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/08/network-rail-35bn-pound-investment-plan
(3): https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/68959/hs2-phase-two-engineering-options-report-west-midlands-to-manchester-part-2.pdf
I expect Mr Clegg to stick to his dishonest '3 million jobs' soundbite, and vague 'scary world' rhetoric.
Let me pose a challenge. How many countries in the OECD can people name that had a lower savings rate and/or a lower investment rate than the UK in 2013? The CIA website has 2013 estimates.
UKIP are getting alot of scrutiny now - and much as I empathise with their core mission I can also see very clearly some of my co-ideologues in the UKIP fold are the sort who scare the horses. Come the GE a chunk will return to Dave. Not a majority but a decent sized chunk.
And have the Yellows now passed rock bottom to a mini rehabilitation? Labour are apparently slowly shedding their converts back towards a core vote. Dave would sell his granny to see the left becoming re-split.
Most serious people don't notice him
“[Israeli technology] is providing Britain’s National Health Service with one in six of its prescription medicines through Teva and it has produced the world’s first commercially available upright walking technology which enabled a British paraplegic woman to walk the 2012 London Marathon. And together British and Israeli technical expertise can achieve so much more.”
All those advocating boycotts of whatever kind against Israel should, of course, be refusing these medicines and demanding their removal. I wonder if they are.
Source: http://hurryupharry.org/2014/03/12/bdsers-heres-your-chance-for-martyrdom/
Remember, this is GREAT news for Ed...
The government's "Balance of Competences" review of the UK/EU policy split has not recommended any changes. They find nothing wrong with the status quo.
Incidentally, as mentioned on the previous thread, I've backed Williams to top score (Ladbrokes) at 5.5. This is based partly on pace and largely on reliability.
Some people want Britain to leave the EU.
Some people want Britain to stay in the EU.
Those that want Britain to leave see a referendum as a mechanism for achieving that policy goal.
Those who want Britain in the EU already have their policy goal. Why on Earth would they have a referendum on changing from the policy they want to the policy they don't want?
All this claptrap about "denying the British people a say" is so much petty resentment from self-important whining children.
We all get to have our say on the future government of the UK in May 2015. If you want that future government to pull Britain out of the EU, vote UKIP.
I'm no Scottish Nationalist, but at least in Scotland it was quite clear that, if you wanted Scotland to leave the UK, you should vote SNP. It took them a while to get there, but now they have their referendum, and they didn't spend the years since devolution whining that Labour and the Lib Dems were "denying Scots their voice". They got on with winning the damned elections.
But if you really think Ed and Nick are "denying the British people a say" by putting forward their policies prior to the general election and not having a referendum on one particular policy afterwards, here are a few other matters on which not only Nick and Ed, but also Dave and Nigel are "denying the British people a say":
Welfare
Pensions
The NHS
The BBC
Scientific and medical research
Defence policy
Our continued membership of NATO
Our continued membership of the UN
International development
Immigration
Carbon emissions reduction
Our continued membership of the European Space Agency
Communications interception
Criminal justice
...some of which are quite important. Shall we have a referendum on each of them? Or shall we continue to have a representative democracy, with all its foibles?
The "government" isn't a Tory government, it's a Coalition. In addition, the nature of our relationship with the EU is a political judgement, not one that will be decided by the civil service
I can see that it works in a 3 party system, but on 4 I'm less convinced. Cameron could lose 3-4% is his Southern bastions and still scoop up all the seats.
Really the precentage only counts at some level if we have a HP where Cameron could advance a case based on most votes if he didn't get most seats.