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BREAKING: Labour down to 18%, record low in poll
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First? Unlike Lab in this poll.0
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Good morning, everyone.
I wonder if this is affecting Corbyn's prospects of leading Labour into the next election.0 -
You also have the unedifying image of both Tory and labour activist minority’s trying to deselect long serving and respected, by their constituents, MPs.0
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Fourth, like Labour.0
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Not everything is about Brexit.-1
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Aaron Bastani (Peters) will shortly tweet how the reality is that people misunderstood the question and rather than 18% saying they would vote Labour it was only 18% said they would not. Then he will say Corbyn is a great and honest man, and we will again ponder why a pacifist is so enthusiastically linked to a man with a conviction for rioting.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
I wonder if this is affecting Corbyn's prospects of leading Labour into the next election.0 -
I am as virulently anti-Labour as you can get. But this is one poll amid a series which are all over the place. Politics is in a state of flux.0
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As I have explained before, Corbyn is going nowhere because there is no other far left candidate who could currently win a leadership election. He will stay until there is - so he is there for a long time to come. The only way that changes is if the non-Unite unions and the membership demand it. And that does not look like happening.
For the far left, control of the Labour Party is significantly more important than winning a general election. Think of it this way: if you had offered the SWP 18% of the vote in 2015 they'd have bitten your hands off.1 -
I suspect previously Labour strategists thought that a BREXIT would have taken place by now....so they could now have "picked" a winning approach as they go into that rosy post March 2019 period. Instead they have been dragged into the whirlpool that has sucked the Tories down....
It will take a convincing shift by the leadership - or a change of leadership to reset the party's stance. I think JC (now 70?) faces a bumpy Autumn esp if BJ manages a (god knows how) a good springboard as leader as of August.....1 -
Brexit is pretty toxic for Labour too, but I think the major reason for Labors decline is the Tory decline. The threat of each other is what has sustained both their pollings, but is gone now. Remember the polling stasis of a year ago, with the polls static on 40/40 or so.Casino_Royale said:Not everything is about Brexit.
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and the Tory decline is about Brexit....Foxy said:
Brexit is pretty toxic for Labour too, but I think the major reason for Labors decline is the Tory decline. The threat of each other is what has sustained both their pollings, but is gone now. Remember the polling stasis of a year ago, with the polls static on 40/40 or so.Casino_Royale said:Not everything is about Brexit.
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I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.0
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The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.0
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As the LDs showed in 2015 & 2017 `getting the vote out' is easier said than done in the current climateRecidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
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Boris says he's very good at pulling it out at the right moment.swing_voter said:
As the LDs showed in 2015 & 2017 `getting the vote out' is easier said than done in the current climateRecidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
It's just his girlfriends don't agree.1 -
These polls and the state of he two main parties is pretty much down to Brexit.Casino_Royale said:Not everything is about Brexit.
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There's definitely something in this - and it's likely that once Johnson becomes PM and gets his polling bounce, Labour will get one, too. But those Corbyn leadership ratings tell the real story. They spell defeat for Labour at the next election.Foxy said:
Brexit is pretty toxic for Labour too, but I think the major reason for Labors decline is the Tory decline. The threat of each other is what has sustained both their pollings, but is gone now. Remember the polling stasis of a year ago, with the polls static on 40/40 or so.Casino_Royale said:Not everything is about Brexit.
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That’s if brexit has happened or not.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
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I see Boris is following Theresa May's example of adopting Labour policies, in this case by reversing Tory police cuts.0
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"The red team has also not been helped by the strong revival of the Lib Dems who had been floundering for more than 4 years following the ending of the Coalition."
In terms of polling and the election results they 'had been floundering' for more than 8 years following the formation of the coalition.0 -
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Labour were astonishingly slow to realise how triangulating on Brexit was corroding their support. And now it looks to be too late under Jeremy Corbyn to retrieve the position. They have either to replace him or to pray that Brexit is a historical event by the time of the next election. Neither looks particularly likely just now.1
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Does it have to be 'Israel' specifically, or will 'Zionist colonial state' count?IanB2 said:1 -
More precisely, it will be about whether Labour supporters in rural and southern seats they are never going to win will be prepared to vote LibDem to beat the Tories. This will be hindered by the LibDems starting third in many seats where they are now better placed to win. And on whether the LDs and Greens can be grown up and co-operate.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
I can’t see the Labour Party in its current state picking up much tactical support.0 -
I think that's right. From the Labour perspective I'd like to see Boris win, because he is much more marmite than Hunt, making it easier to promote tactical voting.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
He's got lots of fans but probably a shortage of people who think he's "not bad, better than the alternative I suppose", which is what tactical voting comes down to. Hunt, despite his current best efforts to portray himself as Thatcher reborn, still comes across as a quiet moderate choice.
Clearly the trend is bad for Labour at the moment, whatever the virtues of the individual polling institutes, but the 4-horse race is so fragile that any major development could shift things in any direction quite dramatically.1 -
fptTOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
Bit surprised that Liverpool Quakers are willing to host himIanB2 said:
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A couple of idle musings on this poll.
Firstly if the trend of Labour tanking in the polls continues will we see a tipping point where left of centre voter/ progressive voters opt for the LibDems as their primary choice similar to the SPD and Green party in Germany?
Secondly and related is the possibility of the LibDems and Green Party entering into an temporary alliance for an early BREXIT general election. The B&R by-election will be an interesting test of the possibility.2 -
I'm glad I'm nowhere near your bathroom!FrancisUrquhart said:The pooing trend is clear. Tories and Labour are taking a pounding, Brexit and Lib Dem beneficiaries.
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TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.0 -
What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un0 -
Near criminal failure to use a second full stop there..........IanB2 said:1 -
Brexit policy shows up how weak and directionless Corbyn's leadership is. A few hard left hobbyhorses, but nothing on the other issues of the day.SouthamObserver said:
There's definitely something in this - and it's likely that once Johnson becomes PM and gets his polling bounce, Labour will get one, too. But those Corbyn leadership ratings tell the real story. They spell defeat for Labour at the next election.Foxy said:
Brexit is pretty toxic for Labour too, but I think the major reason for Labors decline is the Tory decline. The threat of each other is what has sustained both their pollings, but is gone now. Remember the polling stasis of a year ago, with the polls static on 40/40 or so.Casino_Royale said:Not everything is about Brexit.
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I think the complaints was calling the canary and Chris anti semitic TBH,RochdalePioneers said:What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un
Also if the Lib Dems want to back Boris for a no deal that has a silver lining for 2 elections time from a Labour pov.0 -
Will the Military Police be after him?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Near criminal failure to use a second full stop there..........IanB2 said:1 -
More to the point, we all know it's just Hunt posturing (or a clever strategy to get "hunt" higher up the search engine?) and isn't going to happen, because parliament and public opinion will stop it if anyone is foolish enough to try.TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.
Whereas Boris represents a real threat in some very concrete ways.
Really given everything Big_G has said, his voting for Hunt should be a no brainer (the hostage situation with his wife notwithstanding).2 -
Yes, don't take this the wrong way BigG, (and i'm sure your views on Foxhunting are sincerely and deeply held) but given your previous writings on this election, changing your vote on the back of a "pledge" which is no different to the pledge made by every Tory leader since the ban was introduced (essentially a free vote, if parliamentary time allows, which they will probably personally vote in favour of) seems somewhat... odd. Something which is essentially a sop to a section of the Tory grassroots, and is never likely to happen (and even if it did would be very unlikely to pass a future House of Commons).TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.
One might question whether making such a 'pledge' in a General Election is wise (since it seems to have a galvanising effect on Labour voters out of all proportion to the issue and the effect on the Tory vote - and Hunt will have the same problem with abortion whilst having no actual intention to change the law), but to change your vote on it would either suggest that you aren't that serious in your previous arguments about the merits of the two candidates, or that you have gone off Jeremy Hunt to a severe extent already and are looking for an excuse to switch.0 -
That depends what you mean by "tactical support". There are quite a lot of voters who are prepared to either vote LD or Labour, depending on current and local situations. The priority is to keep the tories out of government. With FPTP in constituencies with 75% Con+Lab and at most 15% LD (in 2017), there will be very little incentive for such voters to vote LD.IanB2 said:
More precisely, it will be about whether Labour supporters in rural and southern seats they are never going to win will be prepared to vote LibDem to beat the Tories. This will be hindered by the LibDems starting third in many seats where they are now better placed to win. And on whether the LDs and Greens can be grown up and co-operate.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
I can’t see the Labour Party in its current state picking up much tactical support.
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IanB2 said:TOPPING said:
fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.
Really given everything Big_G has said, his voting for Hunt should be a no brainer (the hostage situation with his wife notwithstanding).
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Nothing trivial about cruelty. The more I read from BigG, the more I'd like to meet him (and his wife).TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts comments
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again; while it's clear that the membership values Corbyn far more than it values winning elections. There will be a Johnson bounce, but the overall direction of travel is pretty clear.AlastairMeeks said:Labour were astonishingly slow to realise how triangulating on Brexit was corroding their support. And now it looks to be too late under Jeremy Corbyn to retrieve the position. They have either to replace him or to pray that Brexit is a historical event by the time of the next election. Neither looks particularly likely just now.
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But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.2 -
I know you've read the Burns Report, Nick.NickPalmer said:
Nothing trivial about cruelty. The more I read from BigG, the more I'd like to meet him (and his wife).TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts comments
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
In the after elections (surveys? polls?) things, Brexit actually featured pretty low in people's reasons for voting Labour. Usually single percentage, so not millions.SouthamObserver said:
Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again; while it's clear that the membership values Corbyn far more than it values winning elections. There will be a Johnson bounce, but the overall direction of travel is pretty clear.AlastairMeeks said:Labour were astonishingly slow to realise how triangulating on Brexit was corroding their support. And now it looks to be too late under Jeremy Corbyn to retrieve the position. They have either to replace him or to pray that Brexit is a historical event by the time of the next election. Neither looks particularly likely just now.
Obviously this doesn't mean millions of people on the left might not vote on Brexit reasons in a future GE.
This might we quite good to correct some myths that people have started telling themselves...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/16/why-people-voted-labour-or-tory-at-the-general-election/
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But that's my point - things have changed so much since 2017 (several political earthquakes since), that the 2017 results are no guide at all as to how best to play a tactical vote in the next GE.eristdoof said:
That depends what you mean by "tactical support". There are quite a lot of voters who are prepared to either vote LD or Labour, depending on current and local situations. The priority is to keep the tories out of government. With FPTP in constituencies with 75% Con+Lab and at most 15% LD (in 2017), there will be very little incentive for such voters to vote LD.IanB2 said:
More precisely, it will be about whether Labour supporters in rural and southern seats they are never going to win will be prepared to vote LibDem to beat the Tories. This will be hindered by the LibDems starting third in many seats where they are now better placed to win. And on whether the LDs and Greens can be grown up and co-operate.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
I can’t see the Labour Party in its current state picking up much tactical support.
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If Hunt thinks fox hunting is worth the effort he shouldnt be PM, there are a lot more important issues out thereTOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.
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The tipping point is more obvious to German voters as the important vote ist the proportional vote. In the UK the voter needs to assess if the tipping point has been reached in their own constituency.JackW said:A couple of idle musings on this poll.
Firstly if the trend of Labour tanking in the polls continues will we see a tipping point where left of centre voter/ progressive voters opt for the LibDems as their primary choice similar to the SPD and Green party in Germany?
What will be interesting to watch is the FPTP half (Direktmandat) of the next general election. So far, away from Berlin, pretty much every seat has returned a SPD or Union MP. If the Greens start winning Direktmandat MPs that will be really bad news for the SPD.
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What the Actual Fuck are you on about? The party that will back Brexit is US under the Jeremy. The LibDems are ANTI BREXIT. And 2 elections time? How many people die under the Tories in those years? How about - and I know it's a radical idea to you death cult cretins - we actually try and win this election. By having police's hat actual voters will vote forTheJezziah said:
I think the complaints was calling the canary and Chris anti semitic TBH,RochdalePioneers said:What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un
Also if the Lib Dems want to back Boris for a no deal that has a silver lining for 2 elections time from a Labour pov.0 -
There wasn’t any real question that the result of the referendum would be betrayed. Both parties signed up to a set of fairly hard brexit positions that left the Customs Union and restricted free movement of labour.TheJezziah said:
In the after elections (surveys? polls?) things, Brexit actually featured pretty low in people's reasons for voting Labour. Usually single percentage, so not millions.SouthamObserver said:
Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again; while it's clear that the membership values Corbyn far more than it values winning elections. There will be a Johnson bounce, but the overall direction of travel is pretty clear.AlastairMeeks said:Labour were astonishingly slow to realise how triangulating on Brexit was corroding their support. And now it looks to be too late under Jeremy Corbyn to retrieve the position. They have either to replace him or to pray that Brexit is a historical event by the time of the next election. Neither looks particularly likely just now.
Obviously this doesn't mean millions of people on the left might not vote on Brexit reasons in a future GE.
This might we quite good to correct some myths that people have started telling themselves...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/16/why-people-voted-labour-or-tory-at-the-general-election/0 -
I disagree. When it comes to the next GE, there will still be a large number of seats will have the threat of "Vote LD, get Boris"IanB2 said:
But that's my point - things have changed so much since 2017 (several political earthquakes since), that the 2017 results are no guide at all as to how best to play a tactical vote in the next GE.eristdoof said:
That depends what you mean by "tactical support". There are quite a lot of voters who are prepared to either vote LD or Labour, depending on current and local situations. The priority is to keep the tories out of government. With FPTP in constituencies with 75% Con+Lab and at most 15% LD (in 2017), there will be very little incentive for such voters to vote LD.IanB2 said:
More precisely, it will be about whether Labour supporters in rural and southern seats they are never going to win will be prepared to vote LibDem to beat the Tories. This will be hindered by the LibDems starting third in many seats where they are now better placed to win. And on whether the LDs and Greens can be grown up and co-operate.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
I can’t see the Labour Party in its current state picking up much tactical support.
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From the conversations I have had with Labour friends (more weighted to their liberal middle-class support base), I think the anti-Semitism issue is also a major issue and, increasingly, that Labour is becoming more silent on LGBTQ+ and women's rights for fear of offending a section of its voter base. Brexit definitely has been a factor but I think if the two issues above were also not present, there would be a view of sticking with Labour and trying to persuade the party from within. Increasingly, admitting you support Labour in these circles is akin to saying you read the Daily Mail - it is said with a sense of defensiveness and attempt to justify.SouthamObserver said:
Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again; while it's clear that the membership values Corbyn far more than it values winning elections. There will be a Johnson bounce, but the overall direction of travel is pretty clear.AlastairMeeks said:Labour were astonishingly slow to realise how triangulating on Brexit was corroding their support. And now it looks to be too late under Jeremy Corbyn to retrieve the position. They have either to replace him or to pray that Brexit is a historical event by the time of the next election. Neither looks particularly likely just now.
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Meanwhile a more important, if somewhat overstated, story:
Mysterious ‘alien’ radio signal traced back to its home galaxy
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/mysterious-alien-radio-signal-traced-back-to-its-home-galaxy-173951566.html0 -
There are various issues remain/leave have differences on, I think an example given was leave voters and capital punishment and various others. I think those hoping for Brexit alone to be that dividing line are going to be as disappointed as those who think it will completely overtake economic issues...IanB2 said:
But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.
I can't see the Republican strategy working quite as well in the UK.0 -
Alternatively:TheJezziah said:
In the after elections (surveys? polls?) things, Brexit actually featured pretty low in people's reasons for voting Labour. Usually single percentage, so not millions.SouthamObserver said:
Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again; while it's clear that the membership values Corbyn far more than it values winning elections. There will be a Johnson bounce, but the overall direction of travel is pretty clear.AlastairMeeks said:Labour were astonishingly slow to realise how triangulating on Brexit was corroding their support. And now it looks to be too late under Jeremy Corbyn to retrieve the position. They have either to replace him or to pray that Brexit is a historical event by the time of the next election. Neither looks particularly likely just now.
Obviously this doesn't mean millions of people on the left might not vote on Brexit reasons in a future GE.
This might we quite good to correct some myths that people have started telling themselves...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/16/why-people-voted-labour-or-tory-at-the-general-election/
For much of the campaign, both the Conservatives and Labour focused on other issues.
But in the minds of the voters at least, the 2017 election was - as it promised to be ever since the referendum of June 2016 - the Brexit election.
This can be seen in our data in many different ways, but nowhere more clearly, perhaps, than in the answer to the question: "As far as you're concerned, what is the single most important issue facing the country at the present time?"
More than one in three people chose Brexit or the EU, compared with fewer than one in 10 who mentioned the NHS and one in 20 who suggested the economy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242
0 -
Agree. Unless you contemplate the alternatives.Alanbrooke said:
If Hunt thinks fox hunting is worth the effort he shouldnt be PM, there are a lot more important issues out thereTOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
"The Seven Commandments are abridged to just two phrases: "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." and ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_FarmFoxy said:
Of course "Double Plus Untruth" coes from Nineteen Eighty-Four0 -
Jeremy Hunt has lost the plot. Supporting foxhunting, which is opposed by 9 out of 10 cats who expressed an opinion, will depress Hunt's ratings in the polls of which leader would do best against Labour.
Those polls are Hunt's best chance because leading there destroys Boris's USP of being the best chance of retaining a Conservative government.
And then he comes out with a damn fool move like this. He'd better hope no-one notices, which, to be fair, is quite possible if confined to the Telegraph.0 -
Its a card that will be played, for sure. But the effect will be to knock back LibDem performance in seats where they are clearly - on current trends - going to be in second place contending for first.eristdoof said:
I disagree. When it comes to the next GE, there will still be a large number of seats will have the threat of "Vote LD, get Boris"IanB2 said:
But that's my point - things have changed so much since 2017 (several political earthquakes since), that the 2017 results are no guide at all as to how best to play a tactical vote in the next GE.eristdoof said:
That depends what you mean by "tactical support". There are quite a lot of voters who are prepared to either vote LD or Labour, depending on current and local situations. The priority is to keep the tories out of government. With FPTP in constituencies with 75% Con+Lab and at most 15% LD (in 2017), there will be very little incentive for such voters to vote LD.IanB2 said:
More precisely, it will be about whether Labour supporters in rural and southern seats they are never going to win will be prepared to vote LibDem to beat the Tories. This will be hindered by the LibDems starting third in many seats where they are now better placed to win. And on whether the LDs and Greens can be grown up and co-operate.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
I can’t see the Labour Party in its current state picking up much tactical support.
If the LibDems do near treble their vote, those extra votes have to appear somewhere. And the swathe of seats where pre-2011 they were regularly chasing the Tories will do better than average.0 -
lolTOPPING said:
Agree. Unless you contemplate the alternatives.Alanbrooke said:
If Hunt thinks fox hunting is worth the effort he shouldnt be PM, there are a lot more important issues out thereTOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.
once you do that you realise we're fked
a bit early to start drinking, but youve persuaded me
0 -
For Corbyn Labour, read Melenchon in France, Podemos in Spain, Die Linke in Germany, and so on. Voters across Europe are saying No to the far left. It turns out that if you want to defeat the nationalist, hard right, you have to do it from the centre, not from the extremes. The LibDems have a real opportunity here, but it will need the party to do a lot of very careful thinking. A Charlie Kennedy-like leader and approach now would see them cleaning up.IanB2 said:
But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.
1 -
In your dreamsIanB2 said:
But that's my point - things have changed so much since 2017 (several political earthquakes since), that the 2017 results are no guide at all as to how best to play a tactical vote in the next GE.eristdoof said:
That depends what you mean by "tactical support". There are quite a lot of voters who are prepared to either vote LD or Labour, depending on current and local situations. The priority is to keep the tories out of government. With FPTP in constituencies with 75% Con+Lab and at most 15% LD (in 2017), there will be very little incentive for such voters to vote LD.IanB2 said:
More precisely, it will be about whether Labour supporters in rural and southern seats they are never going to win will be prepared to vote LibDem to beat the Tories. This will be hindered by the LibDems starting third in many seats where they are now better placed to win. And on whether the LDs and Greens can be grown up and co-operate.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
I can’t see the Labour Party in its current state picking up much tactical support.0 -
So, I think that Jeremy Hunt was super misguided to mention, get involved with or otherwise express a view on hunting. Wholly irrelevant to the current issues.
However, if anyone wants to have a discussion about hunting I'm up for it, as ever. Defending hunting on boards like this is a bit like explaining efficient markets hypothesis to a five year old but as I say bring it on.0 -
I agree that the absence of a religious dimension hinders replicating the Republican offer.TheJezziah said:
There are various issues remain/leave have differences on, I think an example given was leave voters and capital punishment and various others. I think those hoping for Brexit alone to be that dividing line are going to be as disappointed as those who think it will completely overtake economic issues...IanB2 said:
But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.
I can't see the Republican strategy working quite as well in the UK.
But Labour's problem is more acute. As Degler comments in his classic study of American social history, US politics was largely freed of the class dimension having taken shape after the key victories of representation and rights having been won. Whereas in the UK Labour is tied to its roots in the class struggle.
What contemporary values hold the older trade union worker in Stoke and the young graphic designer in Islington to the same political offer?
1 -
I think there are three things going on regarding Labour.
Remainers utterly sick of Corbyns refusal to come out fully for another vote .
Corbyns leadership in general .
A more natural home for those more to the centre , many had chosen Labour as a way to stop May getting a majority but aren’t totally comfortable with them.
The problem for Labour is any pivot to a second vote now looks desperate and who would trust them with Corbyn still in charge .0 -
Does he have a right one, or did I miss something in biology lessons.RochdalePioneers said:What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un0 -
Oh I don't doubt for one minute that we're fked.Alanbrooke said:
lolTOPPING said:
Agree. Unless you contemplate the alternatives.Alanbrooke said:
If Hunt thinks fox hunting is worth the effort he shouldnt be PM, there are a lot more important issues out thereTOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts commentsOldKingCole said:
That's a bit extreme isn't it Mr G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I commented earlier this morning that Hunts support for foxhunting has lost him our two votes, as my wife and I are implacably opposed to it. He only needs to suggest a dementia tax to put him down as TM2 and in that case I would rather see TM continue in postRecidivist said:
But where Jeremy Hunt's seat is fox hunting is a hot button issue and the actual Hunt has a lot of support. He might be looking at the odds of getting back to Westminster at all.HYUFD said:
Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.Scott_P said:
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.
once you do that you realise we're fked
a bit early to start drinking, but youve persuaded me0 -
Not much hope with the current donkeys they have vying to be leader, a lying toerag and an invisible man.SouthamObserver said:
For Corbyn Labour, read Melenchon in France, Podemos in Spain, Die Linke in Germany, and so on. Voters across Europe are saying No to the far left. It turns out that if you want to defeat the nationalist, hard right, you have to do it from the centre, not from the extremes. The LibDems have a real opportunity here, but it will need the party to do a lot of very careful thinking. A Charlie Kennedy-like leader and approach now would see them cleaning up.IanB2 said:
But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.0 -
Coming next ... Jeremy Hunt vows to bring back capital punishment.TOPPING said:So, I think that Jeremy Hunt was super misguided to mention, get involved with or otherwise express a view on hunting. Wholly irrelevant to the current issues.
However, if anyone wants to have a discussion about hunting I'm up for it, as ever. Defending hunting on boards like this is a bit like explaining efficient markets hypothesis to a five year old but as I say bring it on.
0 -
Will labour be able to recover support once they stop cocking about and unequivocally back remain? That's the question now. Or will it be seen as too late.0
-
The Melenchon comparison is the answer to the supposed "gap" in our politics for a socially conservative, economically left party. It's where Labour should be, once all their educated middle class voters have defected to the LibDems or Greens.SouthamObserver said:
For Corbyn Labour, read Melenchon in France, Podemos in Spain, Die Linke in Germany, and so on. Voters across Europe are saying No to the far left. It turns out that if you want to defeat the nationalist, hard right, you have to do it from the centre, not from the extremes. The LibDems have a real opportunity here, but it will need the party to do a lot of very careful thinking. A Charlie Kennedy-like leader and approach now would see them cleaning up.IanB2 said:
But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.0 -
It does seem as if the longer term future of the centre-left is Orange and Green. Corbyn Labour and its media outriders have made very clear the party does not want certain types of vote - and they are now getting their wish. The problem is that the voters they thought were there just aren't.IanB2 said:
I agree that the absence of a religious dimension hinders replicating the Republican offer.TheJezziah said:
There are various issues remain/leave have differences on, I think an example given was leave voters and capital punishment and various others. I think those hoping for Brexit alone to be that dividing line are going to be as disappointed as those who think it will completely overtake economic issues...IanB2 said:
But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.
I can't see the Republican strategy working quite as well in the UK.
But Labour's problem is more acute. As Degler comments in his classic study of American social history, US politics was largely freed of the class dimension having taken shape after the key victories of representation and rights having been won. Whereas in the UK Labour is tied to its roots in the class struggle.
What contemporary values hold the older trade union worker in Stoke and the young graphic designer in Islington to the same political offer?
0 -
Don't give me rubbish about trying to win the election, your progress death cult lot are desperate for us to lose it.RochdalePioneers said:
What the Actual Fuck are you on about? The party that will back Brexit is US under the Jeremy. The LibDems are ANTI BREXIT. And 2 elections time? How many people die under the Tories in those years? How about - and I know it's a radical idea to you death cult cretins - we actually try and win this election. By having police's hat actual voters will vote forTheJezziah said:
I think the complaints was calling the canary and Chris anti semitic TBH,RochdalePioneers said:What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un
Also if the Lib Dems want to back Boris for a no deal that has a silver lining for 2 elections time from a Labour pov.
There are limited parties the Lib Dems can back, on the off chance them and the SNP don't make a majority they may get to be the deciding factor between Corbyn and Boris.
Like you said they won't back Corbyn, so let them take the responsibility for no deal and Boris.
We can come back around to lets win the coming election, that would be ideal but the progress death cult is still a bit strong, they will destroy the party before they let anyone else succeed. Fighting them off and winning might be too much this time but he might weaken them enough that a left wing Labour leader can succeed next time.0 -
I don't know what on earth he was thinking.SouthamObserver said:
Coming next ... Jeremy Hunt vows to bring back capital punishment.TOPPING said:So, I think that Jeremy Hunt was super misguided to mention, get involved with or otherwise express a view on hunting. Wholly irrelevant to the current issues.
However, if anyone wants to have a discussion about hunting I'm up for it, as ever. Defending hunting on boards like this is a bit like explaining efficient markets hypothesis to a five year old but as I say bring it on.0 -
At a deeper level, the LibDems are simply more able to be "out and proud" about their internationalist, pro-European, pro-immigration, open minded liberal tolerance than Labour ever can. As below, it's about more than the Brexit decision.kle4 said:Will labour be able to recover support once they stop cocking about and unequivocally back remain? That's the question now. Or will it be seen as too late.
0 -
Shouldn't we be asking: To whom is Labour willing to be junior coalition partner?TheJezziah said:
Don't give me rubbish about trying to win the election, your progress death cult lot are desperate for us to lose it.RochdalePioneers said:
What the Actual Fuck are you on about? The party that will back Brexit is US under the Jeremy. The LibDems are ANTI BREXIT. And 2 elections time? How many people die under the Tories in those years? How about - and I know it's a radical idea to you death cult cretins - we actually try and win this election. By having police's hat actual voters will vote forTheJezziah said:
I think the complaints was calling the canary and Chris anti semitic TBH,RochdalePioneers said:What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un
Also if the Lib Dems want to back Boris for a no deal that has a silver lining for 2 elections time from a Labour pov.
There are limited parties the Lib Dems can back, on the off chance them and the SNP don't make a majority they may get to be the deciding factor between Corbyn and Boris.
Like you said they won't back Corbyn, so let them take the responsibility for no deal and Boris.
We can come back around to lets win the coming election, that would be ideal but the progress death cult is still a bit strong, they will destroy the party before they let anyone else succeed. Fighting them off and winning might be too much this time but he might weaken them enough that a left wing Labour leader can succeed next time.0 -
In most rural areas and market towns the LDs and Greens already are the main choice for centre left voters who want to keep the Tories out, certainly in local elections.JackW said:A couple of idle musings on this poll.
Firstly if the trend of Labour tanking in the polls continues will we see a tipping point where left of centre voter/ progressive voters opt for the LibDems as their primary choice similar to the SPD and Green party in Germany?
Secondly and related is the possibility of the LibDems and Green Party entering into an temporary alliance for an early BREXIT general election. The B&R by-election will be an interesting test of the possibility.
It is only really the big cities and university and northern and midlands old industrial towns that keep the Labour vote up.
If the LDs start making real inroads into the former, as they started to do in 2005 and 2010 and the Brexit Party start making real inroads into the latter then Labour are in trouble0 -
If it were trivial Hunt would never have mentioned it. He knows very well that the troy grassroots have a pathological attraction to cruelty of all kinds.NickPalmer said:
Nothing trivial about cruelty. The more I read from BigG, the more I'd like to meet him (and his wife).TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts comments
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
Agreed. Easy to see the urban young demographic going Orange and Green. The question is how many seats that actually costs Labour. In many of the seats where the graphic designer is represented, Labour has huge majorities which is buttressed by a high ethnic population representation. Where this isn't present, as in the North East for example, there aren't that many young hipster graphic designers.SouthamObserver said:
It does seem as if the longer term future of the centre-left is Orange and Green. Corbyn Labour and its media outriders have made very clear the party does not want certain types of vote - and they are now getting their wish. The problem is that the voters they thought were there just aren't.IanB2 said:
I agree that the absence of a religious dimension hinders replicating the Republican offer.TheJezziah said:
There are various issues remain/leave have differences on, I think an example given was leave voters and capital punishment and various others. I think those hoping for Brexit alone to be that dividing line are going to be as disappointed as those who think it will completely overtake economic issues...IanB2 said:
.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
I can't see the Republican strategy working quite as well in the UK.
But Labour's problem is more acute. As Degler comments in his classic study of American social history, US politics was largely freed of the class dimension having taken shape after the key victories of representation and rights having been won. Whereas in the UK Labour is tied to its roots in the class struggle.
What contemporary values hold the older trade union worker in Stoke and the young graphic designer in Islington to the same political offer?0 -
Good question .kle4 said:Will labour be able to recover support once they stop cocking about and unequivocally back remain? That's the question now. Or will it be seen as too late.
I think the issue is becoming more than that now . There is a lack of trust in Corbyn , even if he comes out for a second vote the journey there has lost many Labour voters .
0 -
TBH Labour have already voted for a second referendum, anyone who has a problem with Labour doing that probably already has.nico67 said:I think there are three things going on regarding Labour.
Remainers utterly sick of Corbyns refusal to come out fully for another vote .
Corbyns leadership in general .
A more natural home for those more to the centre , many had chosen Labour as a way to stop May getting a majority but aren’t totally comfortable with them.
The problem for Labour is any pivot to a second vote now looks desperate and who would trust them with Corbyn still in charge .
And to make an obvious but blunt point if we are talking about someone who is lost regardless what we do then their opinion really doesn't matter. In the same way the Tories don't give a damn what I think and Labour don't give a damn what HYUFD thinks.0 -
True, full of retired colonels and vice admirals as we are.Dura_Ace said:
If it were trivial Hunt would never have mentioned it. He knows very well that the troy grassroots have a pathological attraction to cruelty of all kinds.NickPalmer said:
Nothing trivial about cruelty. The more I read from BigG, the more I'd like to meet him (and his wife).TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts comments
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
The problem for Labour is that it is not just hip urban graphic designers that are put off by Corbyn and the other Bennite fossils that run Labour, it is young people generally all across the country. They have absolutely no time for the Tories, but Labour is losing them in droves.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Agreed. Easy to see the urban young demographic going Orange and Green. The question is how many seats that actually costs Labour. In many of the seats where the graphic designer is represented, Labour has huge majorities which is buttressed by a high ethnic population representation. Where this isn't present, as in the North East for example, there aren't that many young hipster graphic designers.SouthamObserver said:
It does seem as if the longer term future of the centre-left is Orange and Green. Corbyn Labour and its media outriders have made very clear the party does not want certain types of vote - and they are now getting their wish. The problem is that the voters they thought were there just aren't.IanB2 said:
I agree that the absence of a religious dimension hinders replicating the Republican offer.TheJezziah said:
There are various issues remain/leave have differences on, I think an example given was leave voters and capital punishment and various others. I think those hoping for Brexit alone to be that dividing line are going to be as disappointed as those who think it will completely overtake economic issues...IanB2 said:
.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
I can't see the Republican strategy working quite as well in the UK.
But political offer?
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Labours problem with older working class voters is them largely being better off, Labours base is poorer and younger generally. The common motive among poorer voters in places like Islington, Birmingham, South Wales etc. is economic improvement, better public services etc. basically left wing economics.IanB2 said:
I agree that the absence of a religious dimension hinders replicating the Republican offer.TheJezziah said:
There are various issues remain/leave have differences on, I think an example given was leave voters and capital punishment and various others. I think those hoping for Brexit alone to be that dividing line are going to be as disappointed as those who think it will completely overtake economic issues...IanB2 said:
But its about more than just Brexit as a process or event.TheJezziah said:
TBH when you look at the turnout in Euro elections and the percentages each party got it doesn't exactly make you think a huge chunk of the electorate is obsessed by Brexit...DecrepitJohnL said:The last two Westminster elections about Brexit turned out not to be about Brexit. Maybe next time it will be different.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.
I can't see the Republican strategy working quite as well in the UK.
But Labour's problem is more acute. As Degler comments in his classic study of American social history, US politics was largely freed of the class dimension having taken shape after the key victories of representation and rights having been won. Whereas in the UK Labour is tied to its roots in the class struggle.
What contemporary values hold the older trade union worker in Stoke and the young graphic designer in Islington to the same political offer?0 -
Marvellous. The Labour vote has collapsed - and it's all the fault of people who have absolutely no control over the Labour party or its policies. Of course it is.TheJezziah said:
Don't give me rubbish about trying to win the election, your progress death cult lot are desperate for us to lose it.RochdalePioneers said:
What the Actual Fuck are you on about? The party that will back Brexit is US under the Jeremy. The LibDems are ANTI BREXIT. And 2 elections time? How many people die under the Tories in those years? How about - and I know it's a radical idea to you death cult cretins - we actually try and win this election. By having police's hat actual voters will vote forTheJezziah said:
I think the complaints was calling the canary and Chris anti semitic TBH,RochdalePioneers said:What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un
Also if the Lib Dems want to back Boris for a no deal that has a silver lining for 2 elections time from a Labour pov.
There are limited parties the Lib Dems can back, on the off chance them and the SNP don't make a majority they may get to be the deciding factor between Corbyn and Boris.
Like you said they won't back Corbyn, so let them take the responsibility for no deal and Boris.
We can come back around to lets win the coming election, that would be ideal but the progress death cult is still a bit strong, they will destroy the party before they let anyone else succeed. Fighting them off and winning might be too much this time but he might weaken them enough that a left wing Labour leader can succeed next time.
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I'd say a bit of both, but the important part is whether they can get tactical support in a GE, which doesn't *necessarily* require Remainiacs to actually like them, although it helps.kle4 said:Will labour be able to recover support once they stop cocking about and unequivocally back remain? That's the question now. Or will it be seen as too late.
Obviously it would all go a lot better if they replaced Corbyn, though.0 -
That Russian AS-12 that just went up in flames had 5 captains in a crew of 14. That puts our rank inflation into perspective.TOPPING said:
True, full of retired colonels and vice admirals as we are.Dura_Ace said:
If it were trivial Hunt would never have mentioned it. He knows very well that the troy grassroots have a pathological attraction to cruelty of all kinds.NickPalmer said:
Nothing trivial about cruelty. The more I read from BigG, the more I'd like to meet him (and his wife).TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts comments
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
Corbyn backed that because he knew it would lose . And to be blunt Corbyn will enable another Tory government . There are a group surrounding Corbyn who trash those who thought Blair did okay domestically , just as the ERG have their Brexit purity test the Corbyn groupies have their test .TheJezziah said:
TBH Labour have already voted for a second referendum, anyone who has a problem with Labour doing that probably already has.nico67 said:I think there are three things going on regarding Labour.
Remainers utterly sick of Corbyns refusal to come out fully for another vote .
Corbyns leadership in general .
A more natural home for those more to the centre , many had chosen Labour as a way to stop May getting a majority but aren’t totally comfortable with them.
The problem for Labour is any pivot to a second vote now looks desperate and who would trust them with Corbyn still in charge .
And to make an obvious but blunt point if we are talking about someone who is lost regardless what we do then their opinion really doesn't matter. In the same way the Tories don't give a damn what I think and Labour don't give a damn what HYUFD thinks.
They also say that a push for a second vote is a way to get at Corbyn , and using this to de-legitimize another vote .
I despise a Tory government just as much as you but I don’t see Corbyn winning an election and that at the end of the day is the crucial factor .
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You do realise 'the most important question facing the country' is a completely different claim from what you actually made.SouthamObserver said:
Alternatively:TheJezziah said:
In the after elections (surveys? polls?) things, Brexit actually featured pretty low in people's reasons for voting Labour. Usually single percentage, so not millions.SouthamObserver said:
Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again; while it's clear that the membership values Corbyn far more than it values winning elections. There will be a Johnson bounce, but the overall direction of travel is pretty clear.AlastairMeeks said:Labour were astonishingly slow to realise how triangulating on Brexit was corroding their support. And now it looks to be too late under Jeremy Corbyn to retrieve the position. They have either to replace him or to pray that Brexit is a historical event by the time of the next election. Neither looks particularly likely just now.
Obviously this doesn't mean millions of people on the left might not vote on Brexit reasons in a future GE.
This might we quite good to correct some myths that people have started telling themselves...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/16/why-people-voted-labour-or-tory-at-the-general-election/
For much of the campaign, both the Conservatives and Labour focused on other issues.
But in the minds of the voters at least, the 2017 election was - as it promised to be ever since the referendum of June 2016 - the Brexit election.
This can be seen in our data in many different ways, but nowhere more clearly, perhaps, than in the answer to the question: "As far as you're concerned, what is the single most important issue facing the country at the present time?"
More than one in three people chose Brexit or the EU, compared with fewer than one in 10 who mentioned the NHS and one in 20 who suggested the economy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242
You claimed 'Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again'
Like I said, people on the left might vote more for Brexit reasons in a future election but your claim about millions voting Labour in GE17 because of Brexit is more to do with you pushing your own views onto the election than any evidence we have from the election about people's reasons for voting Labour.
In fact it actually contradicts the evidence we have.0 -
I think you over estimate the position of Corbyn's Labour Party. I don't believe most voters see it as a traditional left of centre Party anymore. More like a reborn Militant Tendancy. A dystopian vision of 1985 where Derek Hatton won. A party of re-nationalisation run by the unions. And that's before his pusillanimity over Brexit....NickPalmer said:
I think that's right. From the Labour perspective I'd like to see Boris win, because he is much more marmite than Hunt, making it easier to promote tactical voting.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
He's got lots of fans but probably a shortage of people who think he's "not bad, better than the alternative I suppose", which is what tactical voting comes down to. Hunt, despite his current best efforts to portray himself as Thatcher reborn, still comes across as a quiet moderate choice.
Clearly the trend is bad for Labour at the moment, whatever the virtues of the individual polling institutes, but the 4-horse race is so fragile that any major development could shift things in any direction quite dramatically.
A pity because Corbyn's pacifism and anti Americanism are appealing. It would be nice to be on the side of the angels for once.0 -
Please can we get something straight.
The animosity to the hunting ban was not just about hunting, it was about the fact that the Blair government had launched a 'war on the countryside' - announcement after announcement that seemed like a manifesto that had been written by someone who'd never listened to the Archers let alone been to a farm in their lives. Culminating in a retreat over red diesel but a complete disaster in the Rural Payments Agency.0 -
If Corbyn's malaise continues, it will be Labour voters that vote tactically for the Lib Dems.Roger said:
I think you over estimate the position of Corbyn's Labour Party. I don't believe most voters see it as a traditional left of centre Party anymore. More like a reborn Militant Tendancy. A dystopian vision of 1985 where Derek Hatton won. A party of re-nationalisation run by the unions. And that's before his pusillanimity over Brexit....NickPalmer said:
I think that's right. From the Labour perspective I'd like to see Boris win, because he is much more marmite than Hunt, making it easier to promote tactical voting.Recidivist said:I think when the campaign comes the three established parties will be able to get their vote out, while the Brexit Party won't. It will come down to how efficiently the centre and left vote tactically to beat the Tories.
He's got lots of fans but probably a shortage of people who think he's "not bad, better than the alternative I suppose", which is what tactical voting comes down to. Hunt, despite his current best efforts to portray himself as Thatcher reborn, still comes across as a quiet moderate choice.
Clearly the trend is bad for Labour at the moment, whatever the virtues of the individual polling institutes, but the 4-horse race is so fragile that any major development could shift things in any direction quite dramatically.
A pity because Corbyn's pacifism and anti Americanism are appealing. It would be nice on the side of the angels occasionally.0 -
I can fully respect not feeling able to vote for someone due to one core issue (I've been there). But, BigG, if you can't vote for Hunt and presumably can't vote for Boris (from your previous comments, if I remember correctly) then what is there for you and others like you now in the Conservative party? A hope to get another choice at some point in the future, like some of those in the Labour party?NickPalmer said:
Nothing trivial about cruelty. The more I read from BigG, the more I'd like to meet him (and his wife).TOPPING said:fpt
TOPPING said:
Nothing wrong with foxhunting Big G (and Mrs Big G).Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - we abhore fox hunting and cannot support anyone who promotes it, so no votes for Hunt. Indeed my good lady cannot stop saying 'stupid' this morning over Hunts comments
Indeed all our grandchildren would be horrified it they thought we supported fox hunting
Make sure your votes aren't swayed by so trivial an issue.0 -
A thought experiment: one worth thinking about because it is quite likely. Imagine Labour tally 265 seats or so, and the Lib Dems have racked up 50. They indicate that they are willing to offer support to a Labour government and agree a progressive programme, but on condition that Jeremy Corbyn does not head the government and a figure acceptable to them does. Do you do that deal?TheJezziah said:
Don't give me rubbish about trying to win the election, your progress death cult lot are desperate for us to lose it.RochdalePioneers said:
What the Actual Fuck are you on about? The party that will back Brexit is US under the Jeremy. The LibDems are ANTI BREXIT. And 2 elections time? How many people die under the Tories in those years? How about - and I know it's a radical idea to you death cult cretins - we actually try and win this election. By having police's hat actual voters will vote forTheJezziah said:
I think the complaints was calling the canary and Chris anti semitic TBH,RochdalePioneers said:What does it matter? Even the polls where Labour are top means Labour plus LibDems in coalition are short of a majority. Not that such a coalition will happen.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un
Also if the Lib Dems want to back Boris for a no deal that has a silver lining for 2 elections time from a Labour pov.
There are limited parties the Lib Dems can back, on the off chance them and the SNP don't make a majority they may get to be the deciding factor between Corbyn and Boris.
Like you said they won't back Corbyn, so let them take the responsibility for no deal and Boris.
We can come back around to lets win the coming election, that would be ideal but the progress death cult is still a bit strong, they will destroy the party before they let anyone else succeed. Fighting them off and winning might be too much this time but he might weaken them enough that a left wing Labour leader can succeed next time.0
This discussion has been closed.