politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB drops to record low in latest YouGov Times poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB drops to record low in latest YouGov Times poll
BREAKING: Labour down to 18%, record low in poll
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I wonder if this is affecting Corbyn's prospects of leading Labour into the next election.
For the far left, control of the Labour Party is significantly more important than winning a general election. Think of it this way: if you had offered the SWP 18% of the vote in 2015 they'd have bitten your hands off.
It will take a convincing shift by the leadership - or a change of leadership to reset the party's stance. I think JC (now 70?) faces a bumpy Autumn esp if BJ manages a (god knows how) a good springboard as leader as of August.....
It's just his girlfriends don't agree.
In terms of polling and the election results they 'had been floundering' for more than 8 years following the formation of the coalition.
I can’t see the Labour Party in its current state picking up much tactical support.
He's got lots of fans but probably a shortage of people who think he's "not bad, better than the alternative I suppose", which is what tactical voting comes down to. Hunt, despite his current best efforts to portray himself as Thatcher reborn, still comes across as a quiet moderate choice.
Clearly the trend is bad for Labour at the moment, whatever the virtues of the individual polling institutes, but the 4-horse race is so fragile that any major development could shift things in any direction quite dramatically.
Firstly if the trend of Labour tanking in the polls continues will we see a tipping point where left of centre voter/ progressive voters opt for the LibDems as their primary choice similar to the SPD and Green party in Germany?
Secondly and related is the possibility of the LibDems and Green Party entering into an temporary alliance for an early BREXIT general election. The B&R by-election will be an interesting test of the possibility.
Even with Brexit party I'm sure a Farage led party would get votes without Brexit being any kind of issue, obviously lots of Brexit related votes there. Similarly Lib Dems would always get some votes, although a big Brexit related vote there as well.
But with many of the other parties you'd assume other reasons outweighed Brexit, that is in a Euro election. In a general election with the greater turnout that would probably be lessened again.
Corbynism has a stench of death about it. Nobody will touch it. And the death cult is now eating itself again attacking Rebecca Lomg-Bailey for the crime of speaking to 100 years affiliated Jewish Labour Movement.
Fuck Corbyn up the wrong un
Also if the Lib Dems want to back Boris for a no deal that has a silver lining for 2 elections time from a Labour pov.
Whereas Boris represents a real threat in some very concrete ways.
Really given everything Big_G has said, his voting for Hunt should be a no brainer (the hostage situation with his wife notwithstanding).
Oops - I mean Animal Farm!
One might question whether making such a 'pledge' in a General Election is wise (since it seems to have a galvanising effect on Labour voters out of all proportion to the issue and the effect on the Tory vote - and Hunt will have the same problem with abortion whilst having no actual intention to change the law), but to change your vote on it would either suggest that you aren't that serious in your previous arguments about the merits of the two candidates, or that you have gone off Jeremy Hunt to a severe extent already and are looking for an excuse to switch.
Have a good morning.
As in Scotland, the referendum - and more specifically its extended and bitter political aftermath - is re-casting how people see themselves. The Brexit divide goes wider than people's views on future political and trading arrangements with our neighbours, drawing on deep issues of culture and identity.
And we see similar processes underway elsewhere, in Trump's America, and the rise of the AfD and Greens in Germany.
People who hope this all ends when 'Brexit' as a political decision is made are likely to be disappointed.
Obviously this doesn't mean millions of people on the left might not vote on Brexit reasons in a future GE.
This might we quite good to correct some myths that people have started telling themselves...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/16/why-people-voted-labour-or-tory-at-the-general-election/
What will be interesting to watch is the FPTP half (Direktmandat) of the next general election. So far, away from Berlin, pretty much every seat has returned a SPD or Union MP. If the Greens start winning Direktmandat MPs that will be really bad news for the SPD.
Mysterious ‘alien’ radio signal traced back to its home galaxy
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/mysterious-alien-radio-signal-traced-back-to-its-home-galaxy-173951566.html
I can't see the Republican strategy working quite as well in the UK.
For much of the campaign, both the Conservatives and Labour focused on other issues.
But in the minds of the voters at least, the 2017 election was - as it promised to be ever since the referendum of June 2016 - the Brexit election.
This can be seen in our data in many different ways, but nowhere more clearly, perhaps, than in the answer to the question: "As far as you're concerned, what is the single most important issue facing the country at the present time?"
More than one in three people chose Brexit or the EU, compared with fewer than one in 10 who mentioned the NHS and one in 20 who suggested the economy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242
Of course "Double Plus Untruth" coes from Nineteen Eighty-Four
Those polls are Hunt's best chance because leading there destroys Boris's USP of being the best chance of retaining a Conservative government.
And then he comes out with a damn fool move like this. He'd better hope no-one notices, which, to be fair, is quite possible if confined to the Telegraph.
If the LibDems do near treble their vote, those extra votes have to appear somewhere. And the swathe of seats where pre-2011 they were regularly chasing the Tories will do better than average.
once you do that you realise we're fked
a bit early to start drinking, but youve persuaded me
However, if anyone wants to have a discussion about hunting I'm up for it, as ever. Defending hunting on boards like this is a bit like explaining efficient markets hypothesis to a five year old but as I say bring it on.
But Labour's problem is more acute. As Degler comments in his classic study of American social history, US politics was largely freed of the class dimension having taken shape after the key victories of representation and rights having been won. Whereas in the UK Labour is tied to its roots in the class struggle.
What contemporary values hold the older trade union worker in Stoke and the young graphic designer in Islington to the same political offer?
Remainers utterly sick of Corbyns refusal to come out fully for another vote .
Corbyns leadership in general .
A more natural home for those more to the centre , many had chosen Labour as a way to stop May getting a majority but aren’t totally comfortable with them.
The problem for Labour is any pivot to a second vote now looks desperate and who would trust them with Corbyn still in charge .
There are limited parties the Lib Dems can back, on the off chance them and the SNP don't make a majority they may get to be the deciding factor between Corbyn and Boris.
Like you said they won't back Corbyn, so let them take the responsibility for no deal and Boris.
We can come back around to lets win the coming election, that would be ideal but the progress death cult is still a bit strong, they will destroy the party before they let anyone else succeed. Fighting them off and winning might be too much this time but he might weaken them enough that a left wing Labour leader can succeed next time.
It is only really the big cities and university and northern and midlands old industrial towns that keep the Labour vote up.
If the LDs start making real inroads into the former, as they started to do in 2005 and 2010 and the Brexit Party start making real inroads into the latter then Labour are in trouble
I think the issue is becoming more than that now . There is a lack of trust in Corbyn , even if he comes out for a second vote the journey there has lost many Labour voters .
And to make an obvious but blunt point if we are talking about someone who is lost regardless what we do then their opinion really doesn't matter. In the same way the Tories don't give a damn what I think and Labour don't give a damn what HYUFD thinks.
Obviously it would all go a lot better if they replaced Corbyn, though.
They also say that a push for a second vote is a way to get at Corbyn , and using this to de-legitimize another vote .
I despise a Tory government just as much as you but I don’t see Corbyn winning an election and that at the end of the day is the crucial factor .
You claimed 'Once we have Brexited I just don't see the incentive for the millions who voted Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory Brexit to vote for Labour again'
Like I said, people on the left might vote more for Brexit reasons in a future election but your claim about millions voting Labour in GE17 because of Brexit is more to do with you pushing your own views onto the election than any evidence we have from the election about people's reasons for voting Labour.
In fact it actually contradicts the evidence we have.
A pity because Corbyn's pacifism and anti Americanism are appealing. It would be nice to be on the side of the angels for once.
The animosity to the hunting ban was not just about hunting, it was about the fact that the Blair government had launched a 'war on the countryside' - announcement after announcement that seemed like a manifesto that had been written by someone who'd never listened to the Archers let alone been to a farm in their lives. Culminating in a retreat over red diesel but a complete disaster in the Rural Payments Agency.