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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling
There were a LOT of polls, including my own, that failed to notice. 2/?
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Make you healthy, wealthy and wise?
As for wise: I'll leave that up to the reader to decide.
My sleep problem is simple: I have no problem getting to sleep past nine at night: I just close my eyes and sleep. The issue is that if I awake after about 3 in the morning, I cannot get back to sleep. My mind just zooms off, so rather than just lay in bed, I get up.
When I was working, it was a great time to get some really good work in.
Meanwhile, everything's going so well......
Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.
A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.
This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj
All of that said, however, the fact remains that the Brexit party are likely to get the majority of those who want to leave while the remain vote will be fragmented over a lot of parties. I think it is very likely that they will top the poll giving Farage another moment in the sun.
Getting this right is like alchemy.
F1: my analysis of a less than stellar (no proper crashes) Azerbaijan Grand Prix is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2019.html
As an aside, No Safety Car was 5. It seems there's now a 50% incidence at that circuit, so it may be worth a look next time.
What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.
However, they aren't polling as well as UKIP five years ago. There are reasons why that isn't surprising. They are an entirely new party, and a one-man band.
They are not as far ahead as UKIP five years ago. A relatively small error in the polling would see them second - though Labour were also overstated in the polls five years ago.
Come to think of it outside Scotland, "is there too much immigration in *your area*" would also be interesting to compare.
And I agree about a good time to work. I had a time in my life when I used to get up at 6 or so, and work on my committee/representative duties for a couple of hours. By the time the phone started ringing and the post arrived my in-tray was empty!
The one area where there is a bit of a problem is education. My sister is a teacher in Dunfermline and they have had a very large increase in the number of children from eastern Europe in the last 5 years with a massive increase in the number of children for whom English is not a first language. It has made her job a lot more difficult. My wife also found at college that the "free" education provided to EU citizens meant that some courses had more eastern European participants than Scots. Again a large number tended to be women with young children who received relatively generous funding.
I doubt they will win - EHDC has 43 Tory councillors of 44 - and many of the houses without any posters at all will by shy Tories, but it is a change.
Before 2017GE you never (ever) saw a Labour poster around here. It was LD at best.
That should be a very serious lesson for the Conservatives, but it’s one they’ll probably dismiss.
CUK are offering nothing new. They are just #FBPE going to the polls, and are about to discover that Twitter isn’t the same as real life.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1122750758607306752?s=21
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1122742108224479232
Spain's governing Socialists won the country's third election in four years, but have fallen short of a majority.
PM Pedro Sánchez's party polled 29% and will need the help of either left-wing Podemos and regional parties, or the centre right, to form a government.
For the first time since military rule ended in the 1970s, a far-right party is set to enter parliament.
Katya Adler:
After weeks of Spain's resurgent far right hugging all the headlines, didn't the centre-left just win a resounding victory?
Did Spaniards have a last-minute change of heart? What does this all mean?
Spain's Socialist party members will certainly have the biggest smiles on their faces this morning. But landslide victory this was not.
The party improved massively on its last performance in national elections. It managed to take control of Spain's upper house of parliament too, but still lacks a majority to govern.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48081540
The country needs a grown up debate and this seems a good starting point.
I have no problem on being taxed on my winter fuel allowance and NI should be extended to all over 60s who are in work, irrespective of their age. A 1% care surcharge is a good suggestion for those over 50 as it evens out the accusation that the young are disadvantaged in so many other ways
When I sold the newsagents and went into business I continued to rise early and was always in my office by 6.30am throughout the rest of my working life
These days I cannot sleep past 5.00am and do not need an alarm clock, and this applies wherever I am in the world, irrespective of time zones
The Tories don't seem to have many helpers and are relying on good, professional leaflets: they retain a solid core vote but it's fraying at the edges. Labour morale is good - in my patch we're halfway through a second canvass, though I expect to come behind the LibDem as we have a candidate each in a 2-member ward and our votes will go to him as well.
The Tories getting hammered and Farage’s Brexit party doing well are pretty much a given, partly because of a protest vote and partly because of loss of real support.
There are virtually no signs of any pending elections here - local or Euro. Just two LD posters from the usual suspects. I suspect turnout will be low which will make reading the runes for a GE harder.
NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
Opinion polls have quite enough uncertainties in without seeking to be superscientific about them. There are other reasons to think that the Brexit party might underperform relative to the polls, most notably the lack of structure at the moment, meaning some of the most marginal voters will be lost. (The same is true of the TIGgers.)
Set against that, with any new party getting an accurate sample is likely to be testing until there's a clear idea of the demographic they appeal to.
I guess what I'm saying is that polls are particularly low value at the moment, especially since most people treat this election frivolously.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/06/26/a-little-local-difficulty-a-forgotten-part-of-english-democracy/
This is the upshot:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-48039654
https://twitter.com/historylvrsclub/status/1122763005576589312
The F2 cars did a good job of keeping Bernd Maylander and his AMG GT-R busy this weekend though, so it’s difficult to predict.
Obviously, you’ll be backing no SC in Monaco this year?
https://twitter.com/oldnorthroad/status/1122764727468331008
https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/2172496/0/plaza-toros-monumental/transformara-gran-mezquita/barcelona-emir-qatar/
https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1122174905729134594
My fear is that the new race director might be more SC-minded than Charlie was, he seems to be slightly more risk averse as he settles in to the new job.
Perhaps there is a touch of complacency in the reaction?
Slattery is bipolar, as is Stephen Fry iirc. But though I'm no medical man, his problems may have had more to do with a bottle of vodka and 10 grams of cocaine a day. Good luck to him anyway.
https://twitter.com/drteckkhong/status/1122555824767942656?s=21
FWIW, the BBC also suggested that a significant part of the centre right vote moved to centre left for fear of seeing the far right participating in government.
In my (unfortunate) experience of folk suffering from bipolar conditions, they lose their self protecting instincts along with many other sorts of self control, so you're right, those around them have a duty to provide some of that restraint. Otoh people in that situation do fall off the edge of the world, and sometimes they need the rest of us to be reminded that they still exist, numerous warts and all.
Carry on the Tory underfunding and it will plummet though.
Understandable, as New Chap doesn't want to have a huge accident in his first few races.
Doctors biggest gripe is that they are micro managed and spend too much time on bureaucratic administration relating to patient care. Getting shot of all those who generate that paperwork and bureaucracy would save a few bn for social care.
The Corbynista Podemos also lost votes to the PSOE
And again, oddly, more things seem to have gone awry since the introduction of 'commercial type' management and systems.