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System · April 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be the party of the next MP?

I’ve just come across this intriguing market from Smarkets on what will be the party of the next MP. The options listed on OddsChecker are featured above.

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Drutt · April 2019

First?

First like Lab in the 2019 Peterborough byelection.

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

Second.

Quincel · April 2019

If there's no by-election before a snap election do all options win with vastly reduced payouts due to dead heat rules, that's what I want to know.

Theuniondivvie · April 2019

Don't know if the Assange documentary on BBC4 is a repeat but first time I've seen it. Regardless of the political rights and wrongs (which are now lost in the fog of culture wars in any case), but he's a dodgy creature, not quite the clean potato as my gran used to say.

edmundintokyo · April 2019

Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG

williamglenn · April 2019

edmundintokyo said:
Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG

36/1 for the DUP?

IanB2 · April 2019

edmundintokyo said:
Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG

Which makes sense, looking at the odds. I think the lead is adrift.

AndyJS · April 2019

I wonder if it's possible to bet on Candace Owens being the GOP candidate in 2024.

Luckyguy1983 · April 2019

Theuniondivvie said:
Don't know if the Assange documentary on BBC4 is a repeat but first time I've seen it. Regardless of the political rights and wrongs (which are now lost in the fog of culture wars in any case), but he's a dodgy creature, not quite the clean potato as my gran used to say.

Surely that sentence is the wrong way around? Isn't it the 'political rights and wrongs' that should indeed be debated, and whether Assange is a narcissist, rapist, indoor skateboarding cat botherer that enjoys smearing his walls with his own excrement is the 'fog' we need to see through?

Surely the salient fact is, that it would appear that the US Government can now reach beyond its borders to arrest foreign publishers who piss it off. To its credit, the loony left is the only group making this point, with the possible exception of some eccentrics like Peter Hitchins, who sometimes has a pop when something like this happens.

Richard_Nabavi · April 2019

The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

“I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

“I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

“They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct

rottenborough · April 2019

Not sure why Green is 32 and Sinn Fein is 68.

OblitusSumMe · April 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1118262309992980480

Is Katie Hopkins on a journey?

rcs1000 · April 2019

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:
Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG
36/1 for the DUP?

Sound about right.

rottenborough · April 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

“I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

“I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

“They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct

Kafka is out of a job.

isam · April 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

“I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

“I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

“They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct

That’s great! 😊

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

“I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

“I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

“They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct

LOL...

MikeSmithson · April 2019

NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

MikeSmithson said:
NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

Oh well at least you havent crashed the markets this time

HYUFD · April 2019

Justine Greening or Philip Lee look plausible, I think most of the Labour MPs who might join it in anger at Corbyn and Brexit have done so, a few more diehard Tory Remainers might go

HYUFD · April 2019

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1118272790795304963?s=20

viewcode · April 2019

AndyJS said:
I wonder if it's possible to bet on Candace Owens being the GOP candidate in 2024.

Apropos of nothing, it is impossible to see "GOP" without giggling. I know it's pronounced "gee-oh-pee" but I can't help but think of "gopping"

rottenborough · April 2019

MikeSmithson said:
NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

Oh well, we all make mistakes. Certainly the odds make more sense now, although 68 for Sinn Fein is a joke. More like 10,000/1 surely?

MikeSmithson · April 2019

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1118274824869240832

Foxy · April 2019

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Don't know if the Assange documentary on BBC4 is a repeat but first time I've seen it. Regardless of the political rights and wrongs (which are now lost in the fog of culture wars in any case), but he's a dodgy creature, not quite the clean potato as my gran used to say.
Surely that sentence is the wrong way around? Isn't it the 'political rights and wrongs' that should indeed be debated, and whether Assange is a narcissist, rapist, indoor skateboarding cat botherer that enjoys smearing his walls with his own excrement is the 'fog' we need to see through?

Surely the salient fact is, that it would appear that the US Government can now reach beyond its borders to arrest foreign publishers who piss it off. To its credit, the loony left is the only group making this point, with the possible exception of some eccentrics like Peter Hitchins, who sometimes has a pop when something like this happens.

Except the US Government has arrested no one, or has something happened today?

I understood that the arrest was for skipping bail and under British jurisdiction.

brokenwheel · April 2019

rottenborough said:

MikeSmithson said:
NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker
Oh well, we all make mistakes. Certainly the odds make more sense now, although 68 for Sinn Fein is a joke. More like 10,000/1 surely?

Especially considering it's hard to believe they'd join a party with UK in its name...

rottenborough · April 2019

MikeSmithson said:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1118274824869240832

Hurrah. Although taken a 900 year old centrepiece of western civilisation to burn half to the ground in order to keep the 'B' word off.

_Anazina_ · April 2019

MikeSmithson said:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1118274824869240832

Yet two ex Man Utd players in separate stories

Foxy · April 2019

It is an intriguing bet, but with a couple of Tory MEP defections today, I think Tory most likely for MP too.

rottenborough · April 2019

Telegraph: "Grassroots Conservative chairmen planning no-confidence vote in Theresa May 'within weeks' "

Extraordinary measures could be used to call VONC.

isam · April 2019

MikeSmithson said:
NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

Smarkets do have quite a lot of political markets up, albeit low liquidity. Some Euro election match bets

https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/uk/european-parliamentary-elections-2019-uk

Danny565 · April 2019

Foxy said:
It is an intriguing bet, but with a couple of Tory MEP defections today, I think Tory most likely for MP too.

But all these Tory defections are surely going to repel further Labour defections.

There might be a lot of Labour MPs who are unhappy with Corbyn, but almost all of them also feel that austerity (and Tory economics generally) has been a disaster for their constituents. If there was a new, alternative Labour party being created, there would probably be a lot more defections, but the likes of Jess Phillips and Siobhain McDonagh don't seem interested in joining an Anna Soubry-style wet Tory party.

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

https://twitter.com/almurray/status/1118048493866713091?s=19

rottenborough · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/almurray/status/1118048493866713091?s=19

Bloody brilliant.

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA

rottenborough · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/almurray/status/1118048493866713091?s=19

It's a joke.

But may be one of the most profound things I have read in a long time, bearing in mind I am half way through 'Uninhabitable Earth' by Wallace-Wells.

rottenborough · April 2019

Oh...

"PETE BUTTIGIEG'S blossoming presidential campaign is earning early financial assistance from key members of former President Barack Obama's administration.

Former national security adviser Susan Rice, deputy senior adviser Stephanie Cutter, press secretary Jay Carney, National Security Council spokesman Ned Price and U.S. Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy all donated to Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign during the first quarter of the year, according to new documents filed with the Federal Election Commission."

https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run/articles/2019-04-16/obama-alumni-donate-to-pete-buttigieg

Caroline Kennedy!

Freggles · April 2019

https://twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19

RobD · April 2019

Freggles said:
https://twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19

May back at the Home Office?

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

Freggles said:
twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19

That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.

viewcode · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA

I liked the analysis. but he could have said it a lot faster...

kle4 · April 2019

Danny565 said:

Foxy said:
It is an intriguing bet, but with a couple of Tory MEP defections today, I think Tory most likely for MP too.
But all these Tory defections are surely going to repel further Labour defections.

There might be a lot of Labour MPs who are unhappy with Corbyn, but almost all of them also feel that austerity (and Tory economics generally) has been a disaster for their constituents. If there was a new, alternative Labour party being created, there would probably be a lot more defections, but the likes of Jess Phillips and Siobhain McDonagh don't seem interested in joining an Anna Soubry-style wet Tory party.

So essentially no one is really interested in being in a new party, they just want to be the same party but with different branding, if they cannot contemplate working with others. That's fine if there is nothing that could see them leave, and at least they do stay quiet for long periods since theres not much point being constantly vocal if the party could do anything and it wouldn't matter. Which by still being consumed by labour or Tory partisan issues is what they are doing.

kle4 · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

Freggles said:
twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19
That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.

Conservative giants is a good one. Whatever the merits or lack thereof of those 4 I dont think all qualify as giants.

viewcode · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

Freggles said:
twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19
That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.

Probably. There seems to be a rash of them...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=X8Y8MIjE6Ro

rottenborough · April 2019

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Freggles said:
twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19
That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.
Probably. There seems to be a rash of them...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=X8Y8MIjE6Ro

https://order-order.com/2019/04/16/social-media-race-succeed-theresa-may/

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA
I liked the analysis. but he could have said it a lot faster...

Unfortunately the current youtube algorithm / payments has led to youtubers being rewarded best for 10 min videos.

rottenborough · April 2019

Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

rottenborough said:
Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/

Crickey the yang gang qualifies.

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6929609/St-Helens-Merseyside-councillor-investigation-dressing-Adolf-Hitler-fancy-dress.html

It was before he was elected, but you have to question the intelligence of.somebody who thinks that is a good outfit for a charity fundraiser. Its not like he was on prince harrys stag do.

viewcode · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA
I liked the analysis. but he could have said it a lot faster...
Unfortunately the current youtube algorithm / payments has led to youtubers being rewarded best for 10 min videos.

I know, it's b****y annoying. Some tubers started padding out their videos a bit around last year, but others just make longer and loonger and loooonger ones. Consider @DougDeMuro or @CinemaSins, who are churning out 20mins+ videos compared to 5 or 10 mins ones in the past.

viewcode · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

"Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
"What's it for?"
"A children's hospice"
"Go as Batman?"
"Too silly"
"Superman?"
"Too skinny"
"Big Bunny?"
"Too twee"
"Adolf Hitler?"
"GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

rottenborough · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6929609/St-Helens-Merseyside-councillor-investigation-dressing-Adolf-Hitler-fancy-dress.html

It was before he was elected, but you have to question the intelligence of.somebody who thinks that is a good outfit for a charity fundraiser. Its not like he was on prince harrys stag do.

Ken would have something to say on this matter surely?

FrancisUrquhart · April 2019

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...
"Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
"What's it for?"
"A children's hospice"
"Go as Batman?"
"Too silly"
"Superman?"
"Too skinny"
"Big Bunny?"
"Too twee"
"Adolf Hitler?"
"GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Maybe he left it late and that was the only outfit they had available in the shop.

edmundintokyo · April 2019

rottenborough said:
Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/

Biden making the same mistake he made in 2016, forgetting to announce that he's running

rottenborough · April 2019

https://twitter.com/davidottewell/status/1118152169415499777

rottenborough · April 2019

edmundintokyo said:

rottenborough said:
Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/
Biden making the same mistake he made in 2016, forgetting to announce that he's running

If he is, then imho he will announce just after Easter.

rottenborough · April 2019

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...
"Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
"What's it for?"
"A children's hospice"
"Go as Batman?"
"Too silly"
"Superman?"
"Too skinny"
"Big Bunny?"
"Too twee"
"Adolf Hitler?"
"GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

This is the guy they are putting in charge of investigating any anti-semite activity. I have got that right haven't I?

viewcode · April 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...
"Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
"What's it for?"
"A children's hospice"
"Go as Batman?"
"Too silly"
"Superman?"
"Too skinny"
"Big Bunny?"
"Too twee"
"Adolf Hitler?"
"GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Maybe he left it late and that was the only outfit they had available in the shop.

"Bbbbut...haven't you got any costumes left?"
"Well, now that you mention it..."
"Great! I'll take it!
"Don't you want to know what it is?"
"Don' matter. I'll change in the car" [throws notes at her, runs out]
"Suit yourself...

"

viewcode · April 2019

rottenborough said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...
"Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
"What's it for?"
"A children's hospice"
"Go as Batman?"
"Too silly"
"Superman?"
"Too skinny"
"Big Bunny?"
"Too twee"
"Adolf Hitler?"
"GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

This is the guy they are putting in charge of investigating any anti-semite activity. I have got that right haven't I?

Well he seems well qualified to find it, if nothing else...

rottenborough · April 2019

viewcode said:

rottenborough said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...
"Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
"What's it for?"
"A children's hospice"
"Go as Batman?"
"Too silly"
"Superman?"
"Too skinny"
"Big Bunny?"
"Too twee"
"Adolf Hitler?"
"GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

This is the guy they are putting in charge of investigating any anti-semite activity. I have got that right haven't I?
Well he seems well qualified to find it, if nothing else...

Good point.

rottenborough · April 2019

Could Sanders looking like nominee entice a 3rd party candidate?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

williamglenn · April 2019

rottenborough said:
Could Sanders looking like nominee entice a 3rd party candidate?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Is Boris Johnson still eligible?

Sean_F · April 2019

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...
"Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
"What's it for?"
"A children's hospice"
"Go as Batman?"
"Too silly"
"Superman?"
"Too skinny"
"Big Bunny?"
"Too twee"
"Adolf Hitler?"
"GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Surely, it's a lot better than turning up as Jimmy Saville or Michael Jackson.

rpjs · April 2019

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:
Could Sanders looking like nominee entice a 3rd party candidate?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Is Boris Johnson still eligible?

He never was. AFAIK he never resided for fourteen years in the US.

MarqueeMark · April 2019

RobD said:

Freggles said:
https://twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19
May back at the Home Office?

There's all those Windrush payments to oversee......

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