politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader, a Mr. Johnson, ge

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

JackJack said:

williamglenn said:

JackJack said:

The only political union in 1975

Tht.

The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?

Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.

Canada and Australia have a per capita immigration rate about three times our own.

It is fairly easy to operate a points system when the numbers are so huge.

Worth noting that many Leave voting areas have negligible or negative population growth. Migrants go to economically active areas.

Australia and Canada (Even allowing for their desert interiors and frozen north respectively) have way more room than the UK !

Comparing the population density of England compared to that of the more temperate parts of Australia and Canada:

England 1,099 per square mile

Victoria 73 per square mile
Tasmania 20 per square mile

British Columbia 13 per square mile
Nova Scotia 45 per square mile

noneoftheabove said:

Sigh. According to that left leaning Europhile rag the Telegraph, the Uk has better educated immigrants than natives, over half of them with degrees, compared to one in three for natives.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/mapped-how-britain-has-the-highest-level-of-skilled-migration-in/

Of their children, OECD say 58% go to higher education compared to 46% for British born.

If people were interested in reality rather than soundbites things might be a bit easier.

I suggest you look at PISA results if you want my evidence base.

Here is more academic evidence that better educated migrants leads to better education results of the next generation:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40176-015-0042-y

A skills based immigration system is going to be essential for high economic performance in the coming decades.

another_richard said:

nico67 said:

May has made a lot of mistakes but no one could have done much better .

I’ve come to the realization that there’s no middle way possible , a softer Brexit will just keep the Eurosceptics moaning about the EU . The Remainers wondering why bother when being in the EU gives you a say and seat at the table .

Mays deal in terms of an orderly exit is the best on offer .The thing I cherish the most about being in the EU is freedom of movement and as that’s now impossible because of both main parties stance then there’s no soft enough Brexit possible with those constraints .

Freedom of movement has become such a defining issue that it seems impossible for the public to accept that even when the facts suggest EU migration is falling rapidly .

It’s not just because of the vote , that was always likely to fall as the EU economy improved especially in those eastern parts .

So where I’m at now is either we Remain as a full member or Leave and just have a trade deal with as close as relationship possible given certain constraints . But NI will have to be treated differently . The backstop is needed and if alternative measures can’t overcome that then NI needs to stay closer to the EU .

A large majority in NI don’t have a problem with that . The DUP deservedly need to get their just desserts for disgracefully backing Leave when they knew the issues it would cause . Most people in the UK don’t really care if NI has a different relationship .

I think an honest conversation is needed with the public about the trade offs , something that needed to occur during the EU ref campaign.

There is no free lunch , there are costs to leaving and you either accept those or continue to live in a fantasy where everything changes but somehow trade etc remains the same .

That's a pretty fair post.

But don't worry FoM will continue within Europe.

Its Freedom to settle, work, claim benefits and use public services which are the issues.

Freedom to work is a problem if you deliver services and travel a lot but are based in the UK.

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

JackJack said:

The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?

Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.

I've voted Conservative in all but two elections.

2001 for the Lib Dems in protest against Hague's Eurosceptic campaign, and 2017 for Labour in protest against Brexit.

Alienate people like me and your party deserves all it gets.

So you think the Conservatives deserve 42% of the vote.

I think they'll accept that.

The circumstances of 2017 will never exist again.

Upset that you're not as important as you think you are ?

Without direct Con -> Lab switchers, we wouldn’t have a hung parliament. I got what I wanted.

And the student fees issue which caused them will never be as potent again.

Remember that Trump, who you were surprisingly such a supporter of, got elected even though he alienated 'people like me'.

People like me don’t vote in America. If you remember I predicted his win almost state by state, so that’s not a good example to use against me.

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

JackJack said:

The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?

Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.

I've voted Conservative in all but two elections.

2001 for the Lib Dems in protest against Hague's Eurosceptic campaign, and 2017 for Labour in protest against Brexit.

Alienate people like me and your party deserves all it gets.

So you think the Conservatives deserve 42% of the vote.

I think they'll accept that.

The circumstances of 2017 will never exist again.

Upset that you're not as important as you think you are ?

Without direct Con -> Lab switchers, we wouldn’t have a hung parliament. I got what I wanted.

And the student fees issue which caused them will never be as potent again.

Remember that Trump, who you were surprisingly such a supporter of, got elected even though he alienated 'people like me'.

People like me don’t vote in America. If you remember I predicted his win almost state by state, so that’s not a good example to use against me.

We were continually told that Trump couldn't win because he would alienate too many traditional Republican supporters.

Just as you said the Conservatives would suffer from alienating 'people like me'.

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

nico67 said:

May has made a lot of mistakes but no one could have done much better .

I’ve come to the realization that there’s no middle way possible , a softer Brexit will just keep the Eurosceptics moaning about the EU . The Remainers wondering why bother when being in the EU gives you a say and seat at the table .

Mays deal in terms of an orderly exit is the best on offer .The thing I cherish the most about being in the EU is freedom of movement and as that’s now impossible because of both main parties stance then there’s no soft enough Brexit possible with those constraints .

Freedom of movement has become such a defining issue that it seems impossible for the public to accept that even when the facts suggest EU migration is falling rapidly .

It’s not just because of the vote , that was always likely to fall as the EU economy improved especially in those eastern parts .

So where I’m at now is either we Remain as a full member or Leave and just have a trade deal with as close as relationship possible given certain constraints . But NI will have to be treated differently . The backstop is needed and if alternative measures can’t overcome that then NI needs to stay closer to the EU .

A large majority in NI don’t have a problem with that . The DUP deservedly need to get their just desserts for disgracefully backing Leave when they knew the issues it would cause . Most people in the UK don’t really care if NI has a different relationship .

I think an honest conversation is needed with the public about the trade offs , something that needed to occur during the EU ref campaign.

There is no free lunch , there are costs to leaving and you either accept those or continue to live in a fantasy where everything changes but somehow trade etc remains the same .

That's a pretty fair post.

But don't worry FoM will continue within Europe.

Its Freedom to settle, work, claim benefits and use public services which are the issues.

Freedom to work is a problem if you deliver services and travel a lot but are based in the UK.

Yet my employer manages to employ in this country people from four continents other than Europe.

But they are skilled people ie those who benefit this country.

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

JackJack said:

The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?

Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.

I've voted Conservative in all but two elections.

2001 for the Lib Dems in protest against Hague's Eurosceptic campaign, and 2017 for Labour in protest against Brexit.

Alienate people like me and your party deserves all it gets.

So you think the Conservatives deserve 42% of the vote.

I think they'll accept that.

The circumstances of 2017 will never exist again.

Upset that you're not as important as you think you are ?

Without direct Con -> Lab switchers, we wouldn’t have a hung parliament. I got what I wanted.

And the student fees issue which caused them will never be as potent again.

Remember that Trump, who you were surprisingly such a supporter of, got elected even though he alienated 'people like me'.

People like me don’t vote in America. If you remember I predicted his win almost state by state, so that’s not a good example to use against me.

We were continually told that Trump couldn't win because he would alienate too many traditional Republican supporters.

Just as you said the Conservatives would suffer from alienating 'people like me'.

I consistently said Trump would win and explained his path to victory.

There’s no comparison between Trump, who Republicans could hold their nose and vote for, and a Brexit-committed Conservative party, that ‘people like me’ would rather see destroyed as a political force.

LOL

Trump lost many traditional Republican voters - you know that.

You lose.

It’s not me who’s emotionally invested in a doomed policy. I win.

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

Sigh. According to that left leaning Europhile rag the Telegraph, the Uk has better educated immigrants than natives, over half of them with degrees, compared to one in three for natives.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/mapped-how-britain-has-the-highest-level-of-skilled-migration-in/

Of their children, OECD say 58% go to higher education compared to 46% for British born.

If people were interested in reality rather than soundbites things might be a bit easier.

Yet productivity has stagnated despite all these highly educated immigrants and we're continually told that there is a skills shortage.

Meanwhile how does Rotherham benefit from thousands of East European Roma having moved there ?

Productivity has stagnated, whilst Id expect some correlation, not sure how much of a link we should expect between productivity, education and immigration.

I agree we are continually told there is a skills shortage - I would guess this is fairly inevitable given the ongoing changes in job roles and responsibilities over the last 40 years, we should address it as best we can, but we are likely to continue to be behind the curve as jobs and opportunities change.

I have no idea how many Roma are in Rotherham and doubt Rotherham benefits much. The government should do much more to help towns in long term decline. (It was never enough but) one of the few ways it was doing this was attracting major foreign investment to places like Sunderland, Coventry, Swindon, who could have ended up being "Rotherham".

People in some of the poorest towns in the UK have genuine grievances against the establishment parties. Brexit will not solve them.