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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested
One of the things that Corbynistas always take great pride in is the number of members who have been attracted to the party since Corbyn’s victory in the 2015 leadership election. With a reported 500k+ the red team is four or five times bigger than the blue one.
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Private Francois0
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Maybe he'll organise his own indicative vote.Scrapheap_as_was said:what a joke of a man.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/11152543014153093120 -
He was on R5 news with a clip frothing about TMay sitting down with Marxists and how a VONC would see a v different result now.
No mention of how many time he and the ERG have voted with the Marxists thus far.... and of course some ERGs floating about voting against the Govt with said Marxist in a future confidence vote too0 -
No, there were the Grievers as well. So it would have been very close if the ERG had all folded. The idea more Lab would have come over if it was close is for the birds, some of the possible are revokers rather than supportive of any deal.RobD said:
Were they all ERGers?rcs1000 said:
MV3 vote failed by 58 votes, so she needed to flip 29 to pass it. 35 Tories voted against. If the ERG had flipped it would have had a majority of 2.RobD said:
I forget the numbers, would it have passed on the third attempt had they all voted for it?_Anazina_ said:
The only people who have sabotaged Brexit are the quarterwits from the ERG and their twerpish associates who thrice had the opportunity to vote for the Brexit deal and thrice declined to do so. There is not a great deal Remainers can do if Leavers keep voting down their own policy.GIN1138 said:
Tory Remainers and Labour Remainers having a discussion between themselves to work out how they can sabotage Brexit...Scott_P said:
Without wishing to be unkind I used to think many of the ERG were just incredibly stubborn and holding a different and principled view even though I disagreed with it. But when those who did eventually cave did so on the basis that Brexit was at risk if they did not, something obvious for months and which had been screamed at them for just as long, made me worry that even some of the seemingly smarter ones were anything but, if they had only just realised what would happen if it failed again.Scott_P said:
Ranking the ERG in order of stupidity is tricky because the numbers are so huge. When you get that close to infinity the maths breaks down somewhat...Harris_Tweed said:For all the rightly caustic commentary on Mark Francois, could I posit the theory that he's marginally less of a prick than Andrew Bridgen?
How do fellow PBers feel the battle of Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber shapes up?
And they are indeed among the angriest again that Brexit might be super soft or over.
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Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.0
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The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois
Look at this from Welsh Labour:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418
“Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.
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Had more lab candidates round my Tory shire in 2017, very fired up and organised too. Didn't work, but maybe next time as they are second in parliamentary now.0
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I have the Lib Dems contesting 53% (4476 out of 8374) which is up from 46% in 2015.
This is an excellent database from the Elections Centre, giving all the results from 1973 onwards.
http://www.electionscentre.co.uk/?page_id=3755
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Channelling the Churchill spirit, 1941-45.kle4 said:Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.
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The implication from the header is that the new members are primarily urban and perhaps of ages where standing as a councillor is seen as an unappealing time sink. Perhaps one should consider that the number disparity will make itself known in canvassing and vote enthusing activity the areas around the (no election) urban areas?0
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Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.YBarddCwsc said:The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois
Look at this from Welsh Labour:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418
“Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.0 -
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Is the contestation of seats or wards?
e.g.
1. Is a 1 member rural district ward being given the same weighting as a 3 member suburban ward?
2. Where Labour are fighting in a 3 member Tory ward with 1 or 2 candidates, is that counted as only partial contestation?
Whichever way you count it in Districts is likely to give a low number even when a Labour candidate is available to a high percentage of voters.0 -
Seats.Pro_Rata said:Is the contestation of seats or wards?
e.g.
1. Is a 1 member rural district ward being given the same weighting as a 3 member suburban ward?
2. Where Labour are fighting in a 3 member Tory ward with 1 or 2 candidates, is that counted as only partial contestation?
Whichever way you count it in Districts is likely to give a low number even when a Labour candidate is available to a high percentage of voters.
If you don't field a full slate, you're letting an opponent get in by default.0 -
What a f##king waste of time...
Jon Snow: Ofcom investigates 'white people' remark at Brexit rally
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47856058
Snow comment was bloody stupid (and offensive) and clearly Farage didn't mean go beat him up. It is totally standard language to talk about "attacking" a political opponent.0 -
The more airtime he is given the more ridiculous the Brexit project and its adherents look.Scrapheap_as_was said:what a joke of a man.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/11152543014153093120 -
She is presumably just briefing them on the proposed offer to Labour and gauging their support for it.Scott_P said:
As to pass it will presumably need most Tory MPs to back it.0 -
And it is more than just a numbers exercise.kle4 said:
No, there were the Grievers as well. So it would have been very close if the ERG had all folded. The ideaRobD said:
Without wishing to be unkind I used to think many of the ERG were just incredibly stubborn and holding a different and principled view even though I disagreed with it. But when those who did eventually cave did so on the basis that Brexit was at risk if they did not, something obvious for months and which had been screamed at them for just as long, made me worry that even some of the seemingly smarter ones were anything but, if they had only just realised what would happen if it failed again.Scott_P said:
Ranking the ERG in order of stupidity is tricky because the numbers are so huge. When you get that close to infinity the maths breaks down somewhat...Harris_Tweed said:For all the rightly
How do fellow PBers feel the battle of Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber shapes up?
And they are indeed among the angriest again that Brexit might be super soft or over.
The ERG attacking the Brexit deal before it was even published dented its credibility in the eyes of the public and made it difficult for the government to unite around a positive selling message
The ERG attacking the deal gave remainers a free pass to do likewise without (just) being accused of not wanting Brexit. And made the Labour opposition's position in voting against easier to justify.
The ERG attacking the deal gave Labour leavers less reason to so do, particularly when it became obvious that it would be heavily defeated. Breaking with your colleagues to make your mark on history by voting a Brexit deal through is one thing; a futile rebellion to reduce a big government defeat is another. Plenty of commentators including Alan Johnson on last week's TW have said that a larger bloc of Labour MPs was ready to back the deal.
And their stubborn refusal to compromise with reality has tarnished the entire project and exposed their futile intransigence and relentless whinging negativity to a much wider audience. If the people who wanted Brexit won't vote for it, what's the point?
Edit/ and of course their own PM lost a lot of credibility and political capital around the world after chalking up such historic Commons defeats.0 -
If Brexit were imposed upon Hell......Theuniondivvie said:
Channelling the Churchill spirit, 1941-45.kle4 said:Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.
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Are they all wearing grey suits?rottenborough said:0 -
Wasn't there a piece on here by David H (?) saying that, while it was commonly interpreted that the PM was safe for a year after the vote, the 1922 Committee could change the rules if it felt that the circumstances had changed and the PM had lost sufficient support?Sean_F said:
Maybe he'll organise his own indicative vote.Scrapheap_as_was said:what a joke of a man.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1115254301415309312
Maybe MPs have come back after the weekend and realised this is becoming an existential crisis for the Conservative party.0 -
Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.Nigel_Foremain said:
Are they all wearing grey suits?rottenborough said:0 -
Mr. Foremain, that comment reminds me a little of (many years ago) when a Christian attacked Dawkins and tried to use that to deride my atheist position.
Francois is a berk. May is incompetent. Corbyn is incompetent. None of that affects the basic arguments around the EU and staying in or going. There's a perfectly reasonable debate to be had, with legitimate views for and against. There is also a plethora of dingbats wibbling inanely.0 -
It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.Nigel_Foremain said:
The more airtime he is given the more ridiculous the Brexit project and its adherents look.Scrapheap_as_was said:what a joke of a man.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/11152543014153093120 -
Good afternoon, Mr Dancer. I am coming round to the idea that a very long extension to Brexit is desirable, so that Scottish Independence comes first and we can all see how easy it is to dissolve a really long-term relationship. Once people see it done, they will realise it can be done.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foremain, that comment reminds me a little of (many years ago) when a Christian attacked Dawkins and tried to use that to deride my atheist position.
Francois is a berk. May is incompetent. Corbyn is incompetent. None of that affects the basic arguments around the EU and staying in or going. There's a perfectly reasonable debate to be had, with legitimate views for and against. There is also a plethora of dingbats wibbling inanely.
Good afternoon, everybody.0 -
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On topic: How does Labour's 77% compare with the figure for equivalent elections last time?0
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Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
It remains ironic that if the SNP had won their referendum, Scotland would be out of the EU and England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would be in.0 -
The offer appears to have been made already. 1922 being briefed in retrospect not advance.TGOHF said:
What could possibly go wrong?
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Labour contested 75% in 2015, and 72% in 2011.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: How does Labour's 77% compare with the figure for equivalent elections last time?
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Thanks, so no real change.Sean_F said:
Labour contested 75% in 2015, and 72% in 2011.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: How does Labour's 77% compare with the figure for equivalent elections last time?
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That should solve our balance of payments deficit with the EU in a hurry.Scott_P said:
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In other words, agreement is pointless becauseRobinWiggs said:
A- time moves on and things change and
B- politically agreement is not achieving what many want, which is to end this not agree it0 -
On-topic: Would I be correct in observing that that current control map shows an unusually low number of councils under NOC than most years?0
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Unless they change their own procedure, they have no power to get rid of her beyond supporting a VoNC in the government.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.Nigel_Foremain said:
Are they all wearing grey suits?rottenborough said:
What is the procedure for changing the procedure for changing the leader?0 -
Yes, the disappearance of the Lib Dems and Condependents from many Shire districts has cut the numbers of NOC authorities. That might change if Residents/Independent groups do well this year.rpjs said:On-topic: Would I be correct in observing that that current control map shows an unusually low number of councils under NOC than most years?
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Best way for a lock to work would require consent of both houses and all three devolved administrations to unlock it. As Labour is unlikely to lose control of Senedd this side of the heat death of the universe it gives them a veto.kle4 said:
In other words, agreement is pointless becauseRobinWiggs said:
A- time moves on and things change and
B- politically agreement is not achieving what many want, which is to end this not agree it0 -
It is a decision by the Board of the Conservative party which includes representatives from all parts of the party. May is a member of the Board as PM.Benpointer said:
Unless they change their own procedure, they have no power to get rid of her beyond supporting a VoNC in the government.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.Nigel_Foremain said:
Are they all wearing grey suits?rottenborough said:
What is the procedure for changing the procedure for changing the leader?0 -
We don’t all think that, actually!Sean_F said:
Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.YBarddCwsc said:The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois
Look at this from Welsh Labour:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418
“Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.
But, even if you did, the possession of a working brain might suggest that you should not post it on Facebook.0 -
all in the wording when trying to make an impact... this implies rather different doesn't it...Nigel_Foremain said:
Are they all wearing grey suits?rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/11152681137785282570 -
If the 1922 Committee said they wanted a fresh leadership election, they could change their rules by simple majority, before proceeding to the vote.Benpointer said:
Unless they change their own procedure, they have no power to get rid of her beyond supporting a VoNC in the government.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.Nigel_Foremain said:
Are they all wearing grey suits?rottenborough said:
What is the procedure for changing the procedure for changing the leader?0 -
If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?0
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I do wonder if he was drunk at the time.YBarddCwsc said:
We don’t all think that, actually!Sean_F said:
Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.YBarddCwsc said:The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois
Look at this from Welsh Labour:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418
“Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.
But, even if you did, the possession of a working brain might suggest that you should not post it on Facebook.0 -
The deal carried enough Remainers - Tory, payroll and the few Labour, that I think Tory Brexiters and Lexiters would have been enough to carry it without the Grieve mob, and certainly so if you add them in.
If we ultimately end up Remaining, the anti-deal Leavers can take pretty much the entire responsibility imho if the swing voter is a Lexiter other than Kate Hoey.0 -
My understanding is thst it is not in the hands of the 1922 to change it.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Wasn't there a piece on here by David H (?) saying that, while it was commonly interpreted that the PM was safe for a year after the vote, the 1922 Committee could change the rules if it felt that the circumstances had changed and the PM had lost sufficient support?Sean_F said:
Maybe he'll organise his own indicative vote.Scrapheap_as_was said:what a joke of a man.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1115254301415309312
Maybe MPs have come back after the weekend and realised this is becoming an existential crisis for the Conservative party.0 -
The only way around this is for the government to resign and make Jezza Prime Minister for life - That way there can be another government that can ever implement a policy change on the customs union (or anything else)RobinWiggs said:
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We survived 2008 didn't we ?Benpointer said:
Not nearly on the same scale.
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Don’t worry we hold all the cards. Scott_P said:0 -
I'm pretty sure I wouldn't post something like that even when drunk.Sean_F said:
I do wonder if he was drunk at the time.YBarddCwsc said:
We don’t all think that, actually!Sean_F said:
Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.YBarddCwsc said:The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois
Look at this from Welsh Labour:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418
“Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.
But, even if you did, the possession of a working brain might suggest that you should not post it on Facebook.0 -
Don’t be harsh on Mark Francois.Scrapheap_as_was said:what a joke of a man.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1115254301415309312
He might have guaranteed flaccid Brexit or no Brexit at all.
The man deserves a peerage.0 -
Her deal vs Remain might as well be called "The Establishment Stitch Up".To have the option that got 48% of the vote last time vs a portion of the option that got 52%, and that has been widely criticised by the people who campaigned for the 52% winner is so crooked it surely cant even be considered.AndrewSpencer said:If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?
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Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.Scott_P said:0 -
When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.0
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They are saying it again, live on TVRichard_Nabavi said:Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
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We've obviously got them on the run.Scott_P said:
They are saying it again, live on TVRichard_Nabavi said:Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
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How stupid are the Labour Brexit team?GIN1138 said:
The only way around this is for the government to resign and make Jezza Prime Minister for life - That way there can be another government that can ever implement a policy change on the customs union (or anything else)RobinWiggs said:0 -
To many Brexiters (and, up until a few months ago, May), every day that the EU sticks to their clearly-stated position is a cause to be surprised anew. I only wish I weren't so jaded, so that I could see the world with that same childlike sense of wonderment.Richard_Nabavi said:
Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.Scott_P said:0 -
I’m not worried.williamglenn said:
We've obviously got them on the run.Scott_P said:
They are saying it again, live on TVRichard_Nabavi said:Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
David Davis will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.0 -
Have you made that point before? I can't quite recall..Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
It remains ironic that if the SNP had won their referendum, Scotland would be out of the EU and England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would be in.0 -
If not, we'll just take our business to Oklahoma.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m not worried.williamglenn said:
We've obviously got them on the run.Scott_P said:
They are saying it again, live on TVRichard_Nabavi said:Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
David David will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.0 -
I think I've spotted the flaw in your argument.MikeSmithson said:When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules.
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It has certainly been mentioned as a possibility, so I imagine it would be under consideration by May. This is, of course, part of the problem with a second referendum - what will the question be? I seriously doubt that (unless a so-called confirmatory vote is appended to a successful Con-Lab agreement) this parliament could agree a question or an electorate.isam said:
Her deal vs Remain might as well be called "The Establishment Stitch Up".To have the option that got 48% of the vote last time vs a portion of the option that got 52%, and that has been widely criticised by the people who campaigned for the 52% winner is so crooked it surely cant even be considered.AndrewSpencer said:If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?
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True but you can't say repeating and most people forget things as soon as the next story arrives...Richard_Nabavi said:
Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.Scott_P said:0 -
FWIW I would rank the blocking factions as below in order from least bad to baddest:AndrewSpencer said:It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.
1. The Opposition - the clue is in the name.
2. The DUP - the clue is in the name.
3. The ERG - utterly nuts to vote down Brexit in the name of a mythical pure version of it.
4. The Grievers - voting against their own govt AND the Ref, and lying about the reason.0 -
Most rules are pretty "fluid" - Just look at FTPA for example.MikeSmithson said:When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.
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Not an unreasonable list at all (though full of unreasonable people!). I'd agree with that.kinabalu said:
FWIW I would rank the blocking factions as below in order from least bad to baddest:AndrewSpencer said:It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.
1. The Opposition - the clue is in the name.
2. The DUP - the clue is in the name.
3. The ERG - utterly nuts to vote down Brexit in the name of a mythical pure version of it.
4. The Grievers - voting against their own govt AND the Ref, and lying about the reason.0 -
One of the things Labour are trying to achieve is to lock in some social and economic policies by international treaty rather than democratic mandate. Aren't they confident they will form at least some future governments?0
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I quite like the idea of David David, got a Major Major ring to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m not worried.williamglenn said:
We've obviously got them on the run.Scott_P said:
They are saying it again, live on TVRichard_Nabavi said:Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
David David will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.0 -
And how did the Tories playing silly beggars with the FTPA work out for them in 2017?GIN1138 said:
Most rules are pretty "fluid" - Just look at FTPA for example.MikeSmithson said:When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.
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It would be like a referendum between Leave and EU membership minus Freedom of Movement - People who want to Remain with FOM would be disenfranchisedAndrewSpencer said:
It has certainly been mentioned as a possibility, so I imagine it would be under consideration by May. This is, of course, part of the problem with a second referendum - what will the question be? I seriously doubt that (unless a so-called confirmatory vote is appended to a successful Con-Lab agreement) this parliament could agree a question or an electorate.isam said:
Her deal vs Remain might as well be called "The Establishment Stitch Up".To have the option that got 48% of the vote last time vs a portion of the option that got 52%, and that has been widely criticised by the people who campaigned for the 52% winner is so crooked it surely cant even be considered.AndrewSpencer said:If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?
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Isn't that effectively the WA?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry we hold all the cards. Scott_P said:0 -
Pretty certain PP called him that in my bet for next Con leaderTheuniondivvie said:
I quite like the idea of David David, got a Major Major ring to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m not worried.williamglenn said:
We've obviously got them on the run.Scott_P said:
They are saying it again, live on TVRichard_Nabavi said:Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
David David will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.0 -
That was a breaking point for me, when Rees-Mogg behaved like a child and demanded she must go despite winning the vote and making up his own constitutional norms to explain why she should not stay despite winning under the rules.MikeSmithson said:When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.
And I agreed with the basic premise that May should have been removed before then.0 -
Mr. Divvie, I have, for the benefit of people who are new, and those who don't keep a running tab on what every poster here has said.
Whilst I'm at it, your records should include my excellent tips on Button with the 2009 title at 70/1, and Verstappen to win the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix at 250/1, quite possibly the PB record for longest winning tip.
And my new book, Crown of Blood, came out a couple of days ago, so ensure you've acquired your own copy.0 -
I think it would be hilarious to see him and Baker et al be offered a prize about European integration or the like.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t be harsh on Mark Francois.Scrapheap_as_was said:what a joke of a man.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1115254301415309312
He might have guaranteed flaccid Brexit or no Brexit at all.
The man deserves a peerage.0 -
It's got a slight Great Escape feel to it. Either that or SMERSH.Scrapheap_as_was said:
all in the wording when trying to make an impact... this implies rather different doesn't it...Nigel_Foremain said:
Are they all wearing grey suits?rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/11152681137785282570 -
This should be the last government crippled for action by the FTPA, it's due for review next year and I'd be astonished if it survives0
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MD, we would have been back in EU by now, laughing our socks off.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
It remains ironic that if the SNP had won their referendum, Scotland would be out of the EU and England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would be in.0 -
Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?0
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Not well but they didn't play silly buggers with it at all, they followed it precisely regarding the provisions allowing early election.No_Offence_Alan said:
And how did the Tories playing silly beggars with the FTPA work out for them in 2017?GIN1138 said:
Most rules are pretty "fluid" - Just look at FTPA for example.MikeSmithson said:When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.
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Clearly if you're a Tory Leaver you are not going to like Grieve and his allies. There is though, a logic and consistency in his opposition which the ERG nutcases totally lack.kinabalu said:
FWIW I would rank the blocking factions as below in order from least bad to baddest:AndrewSpencer said:It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.
1. The Opposition - the clue is in the name.
2. The DUP - the clue is in the name.
3. The ERG - utterly nuts to vote down Brexit in the name of a mythical pure version of it.
4. The Grievers - voting against their own govt AND the Ref, and lying about the reason.
Therefore, the ERG should be placed some way below the bottom of the list.
(Edit: IMHO)0 -
But isn't that like the speaker and another MV? If the HoC decides to change the rules then it can do so?MikeSmithson said:When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.
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Not quite. My interpretation of that is once we have left without a WA, the substantial document that was the WA could be re-negotiated so we could then get an agreement which would clear the Commons and enable us to discuss trade and other areas from outside the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.Scott_P said:
So if I was in the ERG or DUP, I'd say "let's crash out and next week we'll ask for re-negotiation of the previous WA which. with backstop items resolved, the Conservative Govenrment will get through the Commons and we can talk trade - over to you, Liam"
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After extensive study...they don't like it.MarqueeMark said:Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?
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It's on the other side of the Channel.MarqueeMark said:Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?
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They have discovered that the EU have rather a lot of cards of their own?MarqueeMark said:Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?
Or that, no actually, they don't need us more than we need them?
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Mr. G, if you'd voted to leave in 2014, Cameron wouldn't've offered a referendum in 2016.0
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We are an island.MarqueeMark said:Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?
Calais-Dover is REALLY important0 -
...then revoke, after a Ref2 rejects leaving with the only Deal we were ever going to get.Scott_P said:0 -
So you think it will be easier to start again and reach a deal which requires unanimous formal ratification by 27 countries rather than being agreed by QMV in the European Council?stodge said:
Not quite. My interpretation of that is once we have left without a WA, the substantial document that was the WA could be re-negotiated so we could then get an agreement which would clear the Commons and enable us to discuss trade and other areas from outside the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.Scott_P said:
So if I was in the ERG or DUP, I'd say "let's crash out and next week we'll ask for re-negotiation of the previous WA which. with backstop items resolved, the Conservative Govenrment will get through the Commons and we can talk trade - over to you, Liam"0
