politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliame
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At one time in my life I had to spend some of my working days in Brentwood and the only time I would ever go there voluntarily is at weekends. Getting to my place of work on a weekday was a nightmare, especially in the morning, due to the hordes of people taking children to one or other of the fancied schools there.isam said:
I live nearby and have never watched it, but judging by the coach loads of scousers/northerners that descend on Brentwood High St each weekend nowadays, I’d guess it’s celebrities are known nationwideChris said:
Can I take it the person you speak of it a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.isam said:
TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?Chris said:
Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?ydoethur said:
Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?isam said:“Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“
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Late last night there were rumours of a deal and this morning it is all a mirage
However, Sky have reported that both the leadership in the conservative and labour parties are desperate to avoid the EU elections.
If so, they have one choice, pass the WDA
JRM live now on Sophy0 -
Like Neil Hamilton and Aaron Banks and Tommy Robinson. A perfect fit for a Brexit Party. Are you still a fan of Enoch?isam said:“Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1114769800537038850?s=210 -
About as much as the SNP winning the near enough full slate in Scotland in GE2015.Benpointer said:
Interesting possibility. What, if anything, do you think such an outcome would mean for the continued Brexit process?Casino_Royale said:Good tip. I'm on Change UK to come top, with Labour as cover.
I expect the Leave vote to split many ways and/or abstain.
If Brexit is halted, it will be via domestic UK politics, and not the result of the EU parliamentary elections.0 -
Oh god, just woke up and turned the TV on to see Rees-Mogg on Sky. Good start to the day :-/0
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The Faragists will never accept that you've brexited fully. If it goes badly they'll just say it was a betrayal and you need to go further. There's no way you ever get to a point where they've been completely appeased and everyone agrees it didn't work. That's how nationalism works: It feeds on the resentment caused by its own failure.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.0 -
Mr. HYUFD, but I wonder if they'll be more split, with UKIP having the party recognition and Farage having individual recognition.
That might alter a bet depending whether it's most seats or most votes.0 -
Is "probably" required in that sentence?HYUFD said:Not sure Leavers are not motivated, the 'Leave means Leave' rally in Whitehall and Westminster last Friday had thousands there even if probably not as many as 'the People's Vote' March the previous Saturday
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That's why the long odds bets are good value.Chris said:Betting on the European elections seems unusually risky to me, because if May and Corbyn agree to fast-track Brexit, it may be essentially decided by election day and the MEPs won't sit for long if at all. In those circumstances I should think turnout would be tiny, and the results extremely unpredictable.
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To me, as I have said on here before, the only sensible way forward is to pass the WA, bin the PD entirely and commit all parties to an election within 6 months (so the Tories can bin May) so that a new government and a new Parliament can obtain a mandate for whatever relationship they want to achieve with the EU at the end of the transition period.Big_G_NorthWales said:Late last night there were rumours of a deal and this morning it is all a mirage
However, Sky have reported that both the leadership in the conservative and labour parties are desperate to avoid the EU elections.
If so, they have one choice, pass the WDA
JRM live now on Sophy
The Tories don't trust May to negotiate the next stage of the deal with the EU, why the hell should Labour?0 -
JRM threatening the EU from within is not a good look and if I was the EU I would refuse an extension
Mind you, he could be working to that end0 -
The real gap is a for a British version of Likud: stridently nationalist, socially conservative and treading a fine line between populism and corporatism. But without the stench of moral decay that surrounds the tories and the air of farce that typifies UKIP and the various Farage projects. What Veritas could have been with just a bit more hairspray.Casino_Royale said:
My point is they're not coming up with any sort of change prospectus that resonates, other than to Stop Brexit.DavidL said:
I don't think it really matters what their ideas are. Any presence that they have in the next Parliament will be entirely token. I actually expect it to be nil.Casino_Royale said:
Change UK's big idea is to build a new horseshoe parliament away from Westminster, adopt PR, and return to the politics of c.2005 nationwide.DavidL said:Those best PM figures are really something else. Do you think that we are just ever so slightly underwhelmed by the available choice?
How much longer can we go on like this? Change UK looks like a dead end to me. They have lost their opportunity by taking so long to become a party, failing to invite and build a mass membership, not fighting Newport and not looking particularly ready to fight either the Euros if they come or the locals either. But with 50% of the population choosing none of the above a break in the mold is surely coming.
They represent a step back, not forward.
There's certainly a (small) gap for a new centre party, drawing support heavily from the professional middle classes, but that would require it to do some thinking.0 -
I don't trust TM to negotiate the next stage and it does look like she is now at the end days of her PremiershipDavidL said:
To me, as I have said on here before, the only sensible way forward is to pass the WA, bin the PD entirely and commit all parties to an election within 6 months (so the Tories can bin May) so that a new government and a new Parliament can obtain a mandate for whatever relationship they want to achieve with the EU at the end of the transition period.Big_G_NorthWales said:Late last night there were rumours of a deal and this morning it is all a mirage
However, Sky have reported that both the leadership in the conservative and labour parties are desperate to avoid the EU elections.
If so, they have one choice, pass the WDA
JRM live now on Sophy
The Tories don't trust May to negotiate the next stage of the deal with the EU, why the hell should Labour?0 -
The latest UK poll for the European elections if we take part has UKIP third on 18%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1112505363629260800?s=200 -
JRM really is an odious twat. The best thing about Brexit finally happening is we’d hope to see much less of him and the pond scum Francois .0
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That appears to be the general conclusion. A transparent and clumsy effort to provoke Macron into putting his foot down and vetoing any extension.Big_G_NorthWales said:JRM threatening the EU from within is not a good look and if I was the EU I would refuse an extension
Mind you, he could be working to that end
The mood music does rather suggest that those of us wishing that the EU27 would force an end to Parliament's Euro-hokey-cokey performance are likely to be disappointed.0 -
It's not really going to be up to Walter the Softy though, is it? He ratfucked the ERG either too early or too late depending on one's perspective. He lacks Gove's impeccable timing for treachery.Big_G_NorthWales said:JRM threatening the EU from within is not a good look and if I was the EU I would refuse an extension
Mind you, he could be working to that end0 -
JRM is not at the low level of Francoisnico67 said:JRM really is an odious twat. The best thing about Brexit finally happening is we’d hope to see much less of him and the pond scum Francois .
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I think it's worth comparing the 4.4 million votes cast for UKIP in 2014 with the 6 million signatures on the petition. While turnout might well be up for this election if Remain voters rally behind one banner they should top the polls with ease.
You might also want to note that the Greens outpolled the Liberal Democrats in 2014 and arguably Caroline Lucas has been more prominent than Vince Cable in recent months.
Combine that with a somewhat increased prominence for environmental issues generally: plastics, Attenborough, etc, and if I were a betting man I'd back the Greens to top the poll. There's no way they should be longer than the Lib Dems.0 -
Yes, what we really need in British politics is our own NetanyahuDura_Ace said:
The real gap is a for a British version of Likud: stridently nationalist, socially conservative and treading a fine line between populism and corporatism. But without the stench of moral decay that surrounds the tories and the air of farce that typifies UKIP and the various Farage projects. What Veritas could have been with just a bit more hairspray.Casino_Royale said:
My point is they're not coming up with any sort of change prospectus that resonates, other than to Stop Brexit.DavidL said:
I don't think it really matters what their ideas are. Any presence that they have in the next Parliament will be entirely token. I actually expect it to be nil.Casino_Royale said:
Change UK's big idea is to build a new horseshoe parliament away from Westminster, adopt PR, and return to the politics of c.2005 nationwide.DavidL said:Those best PM figures are really something else. Do you think that we are just ever so slightly underwhelmed by the available choice?
How much longer can we go on like this? Change UK looks like a dead end to me. They have lost their opportunity by taking so long to become a party, failing to invite and build a mass membership, not fighting Newport and not looking particularly ready to fight either the Euros if they come or the locals either. But with 50% of the population choosing none of the above a break in the mold is surely coming.
They represent a step back, not forward.
There's certainly a (small) gap for a new centre party, drawing support heavily from the professional middle classes, but that would require it to do some thinking.0 -
What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
Last night I was under fire from some conservatives over my total rejection of the hard right ERG.
Just for clarification there are members of the ERG I do not include in my condemnation.
That is reserved for Baker, Francois and the other couple of dozen diehards who shot down the WDA
Those ERG members who voted for the WDA earned my respect0 -
If it comes to it I suspect Farage's Brexit party will quickly supplant Ukip as the EU elections approach as it will be the natural protest vote for the very large cohort of disgruntled leaver Tory and Labour voters who rightly view the discredited Ukip as beyond the pale. In addition Farage is the only truly heavyweight Leave politician outside parliament and the name itself is a good one, sending a fitting message to the powers that be.0
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We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
Well according to Chuka Remainers 'probably' had over a million marchers, so I will give him the benefit of the doubtFoxy said:
I like that "probably"!HYUFD said:Not sure Leavers are not motivated, the 'Leave means Leave' rally in Whitehall and Westminster last Friday had thousands there even if probably not as many as 'the People's Vote' March the previous Saturday
Quite the wit today
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Aunt Pol looking and sounding like the PM we wish we had on Sky.0
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I expect UKIP will go down the hardline nationalist and anti immigration and anti Islamic radicalism route under Batton and Tommy Robinson which will have a market regardless of the Brexit outcome, Farage will only really launch his Brexit Party if we revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU or stay in the single market and/or Customs Union which if we contest the European elections will by definition apply.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, but I wonder if they'll be more split, with UKIP having the party recognition and Farage having individual recognition.
That might alter a bet depending whether it's most seats or most votes.
If we go to No Deal Farage would likely not bother and stick to his media roles e.g. with LBC0 -
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
4/1 is silly odds to top the poll.Norm said:If it comes to it I suspect Farage's Brexit party will quickly supplant Ukip as the EU elections approach as it will be the natural protest vote for the very large cohort of disgruntled leaver Tory and Labour voters who rightly view the discredited Ukip as beyond the pale. In addition Farage is the only truly heavyweight Leave politician outside parliament and the name itself is a good one, sending a fitting message to the powers that be.
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Long extension, with Summer/Autumn GE for me please.DavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
I would hope that the commitment to a GE (which is what Corbyn really wants, of course) means that could be avoided on the basis that if Labour win they can sign up for a CU themselves. We already have the CU for the transitional period.MarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
Good points. I can see a great deal between the Lib Dems and the Greens opening up. The Lib Dems give the Greens a straight run at the Euros in return for Greens not standing in hot Lib Dem prospects in the locals. Both play to their strengths and both benefit. The publicity wouldn't do either any harm.OblitusSumMe said:I think it's worth comparing the 4.4 million votes cast for UKIP in 2014 with the 6 million signatures on the petition. While turnout might well be up for this election if Remain voters rally behind one banner they should top the polls with ease.
You might also want to note that the Greens outpolled the Liberal Democrats in 2014 and arguably Caroline Lucas has been more prominent than Vince Cable in recent months.
Combine that with a somewhat increased prominence for environmental issues generally: plastics, Attenborough, etc, and if I were a betting man I'd back the Greens to top the poll. There's no way they should be longer than the Lib Dems.0 -
June general election , September is far too late.DavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
Changes to PD to avoid Singapore on Thames and some mechanism (referendum perhaps) to lock that in.
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Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
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It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.0 -
Is it not the case that - as has been the case since Article 50 was invoked - we can leave the EU as soon as an agreement has been reached? If we are given a longer extension, we can still leave on 22 May if we are ready. Any extension is a "Flextension", isn't it? Or have I got it wrong?DavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
Yes, there has to be a mechanism to prevent Tory backsliding on the PD, a #peoplesvote or GE.Jonathan said:
June general election , September is far too late.DavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
Changes to PD to avoid Singapore on Thames and some mechanism (referendum perhaps) to lock that in.0 -
It can if you make that subject to a People’s Vote. It will become binding in the same way as Brexit is now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.0 -
I suspepct the 4.4m votes UKIP received represents more individual voters of voting age than the 6m that included multiple voting, under age voters and cats and dogs.....OblitusSumMe said:I think it's worth comparing the 4.4 million votes cast for UKIP in 2014 with the 6 million signatures on the petition. While turnout might well be up for this election if Remain voters rally behind one banner they should top the polls with ease.
You might also want to note that the Greens outpolled the Liberal Democrats in 2014 and arguably Caroline Lucas has been more prominent than Vince Cable in recent months.
Combine that with a somewhat increased prominence for environmental issues generally: plastics, Attenborough, etc, and if I were a betting man I'd back the Greens to top the poll. There's no way they should be longer than the Lib Dems.0 -
Labour can fight the GE committed to all of these things. I think that the Tories will also commit to them all except the CU. The priority is a government capable of negotiating at all. At the moment we don't have one.Foxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.0 -
I think that's right. But there will no doubt be a dozen alternative theories.Chris said:
Is it not the case that - as has been the case since Article 50 was invoked - we can leave the EU as soon as an agreement has been reached? If we are given a longer extension, we can still leave on 22 May if we are ready. Any extension is a "Flextension", isn't it? Or have I got it wrong?DavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.0 -
Both TM and Corbyn are opposed to both a referendum and an extension for the EU electionsJonathan said:
It can if you make that subject to a People’s Vote. It will become binding in the same way as Brexit is now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
If they agree a compromise deal it will not include a referendum and the agreement would remain in force until a GE0 -
That is why it needs to include a GE before the phase 2 negotiations start, or a #peoplesvote after they are complete.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
Several Tories have already stated an intention to rip up the PD as soon as possible. Tory promises cannot be trusted. It is why MV2.5 failed.0 -
The Tories need time to choose a new leader. If Labour was smart it would do the same as the polling in the thread header vividly shows. Parliament have a lot of work to do which will keep them very busy until May and I suspect there will still be legislative things to be sorted out after the departure date. June is therefore probably too soon if we are going to have a campaign as well but I would settle for August.Jonathan said:
June general election , September is far too late.DavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
Changes to PD to avoid Singapore on Thames and some mechanism (referendum perhaps) to lock that in.0 -
And if by the time we get the People's Vote, the eye-watering cost of the CU has been revealed. And your People's Vote only allows ratifying the deal with the eye-wateringly expenssive CU - or Remain? That's really going to settle things for a generation.....not.Jonathan said:
It can if you make that subject to a People’s Vote. It will become binding in the same way as Brexit is now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.0 -
If May wants Labour votes to pass her deal, she will need to find a mechanism to lock out the hard Brexiteers. That’s a reasonable price.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both TM and Corbyn are opposed to both a referendum and an extension for the EU electionsJonathan said:
It can if you make that subject to a People’s Vote. It will become binding in the same way as Brexit is now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
If they agree a compromise deal it will not include a referendum and the agreement would remain in force until a GE
0 -
If a deal is agreed and we brexit on time a referendum dies at that time and those who want one will have to campaign to rejoinFoxy said:
That is why it needs to include a GE before the phase 2 negotiations start, or a #peoplesvote after they are complete.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
Several Tories have already stated an intention to rip up the PD as soon as possible. Tory promises cannot be trusted. It is why MV2.5 failed.0 -
That's basically vote for the WDA then get done up the jacksie by the tories when they resile from the CU. Why would Labour agree to that? (I am assuming somebody other than Corbo with a functional brain will be involved in the decision making process.)Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both TM and Corbyn are opposed to both a referendum and an extension for the EU electionsJonathan said:
It can if you make that subject to a People’s Vote. It will become binding in the same way as Brexit is now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
If they agree a compromise deal it will not include a referendum and the agreement would remain in force until a GE0 -
Yes but it clearly corresponds to a large block of opinion in the country. So for every overenthusiastic remainer who signed up their gerbil there will be someone who wouldn't sign on online petition but who agrees that we've reached the stage when Article 50 needs to be revoked.MarqueeMark said:
I suspepct the 4.4m votes UKIP received represents more individual voters of voting age than the 6m that included multiple voting, under age voters and cats and dogs.....OblitusSumMe said:I think it's worth comparing the 4.4 million votes cast for UKIP in 2014 with the 6 million signatures on the petition. While turnout might well be up for this election if Remain voters rally behind one banner they should top the polls with ease.
You might also want to note that the Greens outpolled the Liberal Democrats in 2014 and arguably Caroline Lucas has been more prominent than Vince Cable in recent months.
Combine that with a somewhat increased prominence for environmental issues generally: plastics, Attenborough, etc, and if I were a betting man I'd back the Greens to top the poll. There's no way they should be longer than the Lib Dems.0 -
It is not really a question of trusting the Tories. It is a question of trusting the people. Who and what are they going to vote for? The Tories will need to commit to not agreeing anything with the EU until after the election but given the pace to date that is a gesture rather than an actual possibility.Foxy said:
That is why it needs to include a GE before the phase 2 negotiations start, or a #peoplesvote after they are complete.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
Several Tories have already stated an intention to rip up the PD as soon as possible. Tory promises cannot be trusted. It is why MV2.5 failed.0 -
So a few days ago I make a comment about being happy if the 'X' of Helmer's 'Brexit' ends up in the Labour box, and then what do I read in TSE's header...
On topic, I think Labour will come out on top if we do get to vote.0 -
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.0 -
Yes where were the 10m 2016 remain voters? My interpretation is different to yours in that this overlooked cohort have accepted the referendum result and desperately want to move on.Recidivist said:
Yes but it clearly corresponds to a large block of opinion in the country. So for every overenthusiastic remainer who signed up their gerbil there will be someone who wouldn't sign on online petition but who agrees that we've reached the stage when Article 50 needs to be revoked.MarqueeMark said:
I suspepct the 4.4m votes UKIP received represents more individual voters of voting age than the 6m that included multiple voting, under age voters and cats and dogs.....OblitusSumMe said:I think it's worth comparing the 4.4 million votes cast for UKIP in 2014 with the 6 million signatures on the petition. While turnout might well be up for this election if Remain voters rally behind one banner they should top the polls with ease.
You might also want to note that the Greens outpolled the Liberal Democrats in 2014 and arguably Caroline Lucas has been more prominent than Vince Cable in recent months.
Combine that with a somewhat increased prominence for environmental issues generally: plastics, Attenborough, etc, and if I were a betting man I'd back the Greens to top the poll. There's no way they should be longer than the Lib Dems.0 -
I am trying to decide which GE scenario is better for Labour -
(i) Before we leave with the WA blocked:
A Brexit election with the existential question of In or Out still up for grabs. Labour offer Ref2 and hope to surf to power on a wave of Remainer sentiment.
(ii) After we leave with the WA passed:
An election where Brexit (in the form of Phase 2) is just one of many issues. Labour offer a closer aligned Future Relationship and hope to win based on that plus lots of other things.
I think this is a really crucial question to consider. Because if the answer is (ii) there might well be a cross party deal and we leave in this quarter. But if it's (i) there will almost certainly not be and the impasse will continue.
I think (i) myself. Michael Portillo, I notice, thinks (ii).
So I'm not sure who to believe, me or Michael Portillo.
Guess it doesn't matter. What matters is what Jeremy & Co believe.0 -
Agreed. And one way to do it would be to form a national government. It also has the side effect of being a way for May to honour her pledge to resign before the next stage of Brexit. She'd resign and become the new National Government PM.Jonathan said:
If May wants Labour votes to pass her deal, she will need to find a mechanism to lock out the hard Brexiteers. That’s a reasonable price.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both TM and Corbyn are opposed to both a referendum and an extension for the EU electionsJonathan said:
It can if you make that subject to a People’s Vote. It will become binding in the same way as Brexit is now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be binding beyond this ParliamentFoxy said:
Unless the PD is binding on the Tories no other party will support it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not understand why so much is put on the PD which is not a treaty and is a wish list. If the ERG had sense they would pass the WDA this week and, as David says and I agree, TM stands down and a new leader is elected to deal with the negotiationsMarqueeMark said:
Gets my vote. Just as long as we aren't locked in to some wanky CU as the price to achieve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are on the same pageDavidL said:What I would like to see is:
1. The MV passing in the early part of this week.
2. It being agreed that we will leave on 22nd May at the EU summit.
3. May resigning by Friday (staying on as caretaker)
4. Parliament getting on with the passing of all required legislation and SIs.
5. A GE in about September so we can have a government again.
It's not impossible but I don't particularly fancy my chances.
CU and protection of workers, consumers, environmental rights is the bare minimum.
If they agree a compromise deal it will not include a referendum and the agreement would remain in force until a GE0 -
I think the likely path is that they'll both give a free vote on a people's vote and then both whip for I can't believe its not customs union ?0
-
Hasn't it gone quiet because they've taken the weekend off? Theres no urgency anymore.Benpointer said:It's all gone a bit quiet on the Con-Lab Brexit talks, which probably means they are making some progress. MVx on Tuesday anyone?
(x = a positive integer - I've lost count.)0 -
On topic:
This from Iain Dale in Telegraph:
"I did a random phone-around of Tory MPs, candidates and activists on Saturday. With the exception of one MP, I found not a single one of them who would be voting Conservative in the European elections. To a man and woman, they all said they would be voting for The Brexit Party. Interestingly none mentioned Ukip, a party which is now identified with rampant Islamophobia, rather than Euroscepticism."0 -
There were so many people they had to close Westminster Tube Station (where I usually board to return home). I had to turn round and use St James Park instead. I arrived back home a full two minutes later than expected.OblitusSumMe said:
Is "probably" required in that sentence?HYUFD said:Not sure Leavers are not motivated, the 'Leave means Leave' rally in Whitehall and Westminster last Friday had thousands there even if probably not as many as 'the People's Vote' March the previous Saturday
0 -
Where UKIP goes, the Brexit Party will follow - if it survives - for they are after the same constituency.rottenborough said:On topic:
This from Iain Dale in Telegraph:
"I did a random phone-around of Tory MPs, candidates and activists on Saturday. With the exception of one MP, I found not a single one of them who would be voting Conservative in the European elections. To a man and woman, they all said they would be voting for The Brexit Party. Interestingly none mentioned Ukip, a party which is now identified with rampant Islamophobia, rather than Euroscepticism."0 -
he must have been calling ERG loonsrottenborough said:On topic:
This from Iain Dale in Telegraph:
"I did a random phone-around of Tory MPs, candidates and activists on Saturday. With the exception of one MP, I found not a single one of them who would be voting Conservative in the European elections. To a man and woman, they all said they would be voting for The Brexit Party. Interestingly none mentioned Ukip, a party which is now identified with rampant Islamophobia, rather than Euroscepticism."0 -
I don't see any of that. Of course there will still be some loons who will maintain that we are still too close to the EU and that they are "clipping our wings". Of course there will still be some loons who want to start the arguments again by having a referendum about rejoining. But I honestly think that the vast bulk of people including our 2 major parties will just want to move on and accept the new status quo of a close trading relationship but no formal political structures (we will of course work closely with the EU on a variety of issues) for the foreseeable future.DougSeal said:
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.0 -
Can you imagine Iain Dale ringing on your Saturday off? Not nice. I wonder if he misconstrued people telling him to Brexit off.rottenborough said:On topic:
This from Iain Dale in Telegraph:
"I did a random phone-around of Tory MPs, candidates and activists on Saturday. With the exception of one MP, I found not a single one of them who would be voting Conservative in the European elections. To a man and woman, they all said they would be voting for The Brexit Party. Interestingly none mentioned Ukip, a party which is now identified with rampant Islamophobia, rather than Euroscepticism."0 -
I've thought for a long time that it's more like the 17th Century, when the English and Welsh were trying to sort out the King vs Parliament issue and the the Scots which form of Protestantism they wanted (IIRC). It took for ever to really sort that out.DougSeal said:
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.0 -
Remainers like myself who accepted the referendum result and desperately want to move on have been forced to the conclusion that no moving on is in fact possible. That's where the revoke article 50 now move comes from. Diehard remainers have spent the last 2 and half years campaigning for a people's vote and still want one to have another go at winning the argument. I want it revoked now because Brexit has failed. The phobes don't know what they want and will never agree. There is no solution avialable. We should just stop it.Norm said:
Yes where were the 10m 2016 remain voters? My interpretation is different to yours in that this overlooked cohort have accepted the referendum result and desperately want to move on.Recidivist said:
Yes but it clearly corresponds to a large block of opinion in the country. So for every overenthusiastic remainer who signed up their gerbil there will be someone who wouldn't sign on online petition but who agrees that we've reached the stage when Article 50 needs to be revoked.MarqueeMark said:
I suspepct the 4.4m votes UKIP received represents more individual voters of voting age than the 6m that included multiple voting, under age voters and cats and dogs.....OblitusSumMe said:I think it's worth comparing the 4.4 million votes cast for UKIP in 2014 with the 6 million signatures on the petition. While turnout might well be up for this election if Remain voters rally behind one banner they should top the polls with ease.
You might also want to note that the Greens outpolled the Liberal Democrats in 2014 and arguably Caroline Lucas has been more prominent than Vince Cable in recent months.
Combine that with a somewhat increased prominence for environmental issues generally: plastics, Attenborough, etc, and if I were a betting man I'd back the Greens to top the poll. There's no way they should be longer than the Lib Dems.0 -
0
-
They wouldn't trust each other. We hear of previous free votes and 'unofficial whipping' for instance. True or not if PV failed Labour would not follow through en masse I think theyd say the Tories reneged on it being free.Pulpstar said:I think the likely path is that they'll both give a free vote on a people's vote and then both whip for I can't believe its not customs union ?
I can see you scenario as the Tory plan but other than his own tendencies I've seen no reason given why Corbyn would agree a path for labour which does not guarantee a Pv. Sure a mere couple dozen dont want it but they other 200 do, it's no contest0 -
That they didn’t say was the elephant was armed with a Kalashnikov.JackW said:When it's just not your day ....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-478439990 -
Not sure having already whipped a PV that Labour can now back off.kle4 said:
They wouldn't trust each other. We hear of previous free votes and 'unofficial whipping' for instance. True or not if PV failed Labour would not follow through en masse I think theyd say the Tories reneged on it being free.Pulpstar said:I think the likely path is that they'll both give a free vote on a people's vote and then both whip for I can't believe its not customs union ?
I can see you scenario as the Tory plan but other than his own tendencies I've seen no reason given why Corbyn would agree a path for labour which does not guarantee a Pv. Sure a mere couple dozen dont want it but they other 200 do, it's no contest0 -
Is there anybody as utterly useless as Shami Chakabarti. She was a good human rights lawyer before she produced her antisemitism whitewash in return for her elevation to the Lords
We have so many incompetent politicians - it is no wonder we are where we are0 -
the nature of the religion was a heavy factor all over of course, given the times.OldKingCole said:
I've thought for a long time that it's more like the 17th Century, when the English and Welsh were trying to sort out the King vs Parliament issue and the the Scots which form of Protestantism they wanted (IIRC). It took for ever to really sort that out.DougSeal said:
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.0 -
To work and trade closely we need bilateral arrangements. These are not happening in the current climate of people, especially Conservatives, who think that only treaties with a unilateral exit clause are acceptable. The sudden popularity and enthronement of “No Deal” being the only “true” Brexit and the increasingly vitriolic xenophobia of Tory MPs like Mark “Tutonic Arrogance” Francois and Priti “starve the Irish” Patel make me deeply dubious that Tory Leavers want to work closely with anyone about anything.DavidL said:
I don't see any of that. Of course there will still be some loons who will maintain that we are still too close to the EU and that they are "clipping our wings". Of course there will still be some loons who want to start the arguments again by having a referendum about rejoining. But I honestly think that the vast bulk of people including our 2 major parties will just want to move on and accept the new status quo of a close trading relationship but no formal political structures (we will of course work closely with the EU on a variety of issues) for the foreseeable future.DougSeal said:
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.0 -
I dont think it is true that people want to move on. A lot of people say that out of weariness, but there's be more desire to compromise from the politicians if that was so.DavidL said:
I don't see any of that. Of course there will still be some loons who will maintain that we are still too close to the EU and that they are "clipping our wings". Of course there will still be some loons who want to start the arguments again by having a referendum about rejoining. But I honestly think that the vast bulk of people including our 2 major parties will just want to move on and accept the new status quo of a close trading relationship but no formal political structures (we will of course work closely with the EU on a variety of issues) for the foreseeable future.DougSeal said:
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.
No, people want it over but only in their way, it's why revoke and no deal increase in popularity.0 -
The anti-EU vote will be split three ways; the pro-EU vote will be split six ways. One should fancy an anti-EU party to come first.0
-
Nationalism, religion, it all comes from the same psychological tribal need.kle4 said:
the nature of the religion was a heavy factor all over of course, given the times.OldKingCole said:
I've thought for a long time that it's more like the 17th Century, when the English and Welsh were trying to sort out the King vs Parliament issue and the the Scots which form of Protestantism they wanted (IIRC). It took for ever to really sort that out.DougSeal said:
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.0 -
I'll raise you Gavin Williamson ..... whose only role in government is to make Chris Grayling look barely competent.Big_G_NorthWales said:Is there anybody as utterly useless as Shami Chakabarti.....
0 -
Theres already an extension likely coming why would they back off to avoid a longer one during which they could do what most of them want? For most of them that is remain, May cannot give them anything even if she wanted.Jonathan said:
Not sure having already whipped a PV that Labour can now back off.kle4 said:
They wouldn't trust each other. We hear of previous free votes and 'unofficial whipping' for instance. True or not if PV failed Labour would not follow through en masse I think theyd say the Tories reneged on it being free.Pulpstar said:I think the likely path is that they'll both give a free vote on a people's vote and then both whip for I can't believe its not customs union ?
I can see you scenario as the Tory plan but other than his own tendencies I've seen no reason given why Corbyn would agree a path for labour which does not guarantee a Pv. Sure a mere couple dozen dont want it but they other 200 do, it's no contest0 -
What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
Now, hold that thought and ask yourself what their prospectus would be for a general election as well. That’s why the Conservatives will not be seeking a general election this year.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is there anybody as utterly useless as Shami Chakabarti. She was a good human rights lawyer before she produced her antisemitism whitewash in return for her elevation to the Lords
We have so many incompetent politicians - it is no wonder we are where we are
She’s, as you say, a good lawyer who went on to do a very bad thing. She’s not useless at one thing at least and I agree she should have stuck at it as she did valuable work. The report fiasco has tainted her reputation irretrievably0 -
0
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Most of them wont. Some of them openly suggest it though. Heck, Brexit hard man Steve Baker suggested he might vote with Corbyn in a vote of no confidence. talking to Corbyn though is unacceptable of courseAlastairMeeks said:What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
Now, hold that thought and ask yourself what their prospectus would be for a general election as well. That’s why the Conservatives will not be seeking a general election this year.0 -
Quite frankly that applies to any nation election right now. The manifesto that Grieve, Clarke, Francois & Baker can rally around would have to be a choose your own adventure book.AlastairMeeks said:What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
Now, hold that thought and ask yourself what their prospectus would be for a general election as well. That’s why the Conservatives will not be seeking a general election this year.0 -
“Vote for us and we will shuffle about making grumpy noises about the dreadful PM we foisted on the country”AlastairMeeks said:What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
Now, hold that thought and ask yourself what their prospectus would be for a general election as well. That’s why the Conservatives will not be seeking a general election this year.
A winning formula surely ?
As I’ve previously opined - the Con party would be better off confirming that it won’t stand candidate as we are leaving.0 -
BTW if anyone wants an increasingly vitriolic and pointless argument about the difference between the Legitimists and the Orleanists in the French Legislative Elections of 1871 I’m here all day.0
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Maybe, but not all splits are equal in prominence. I dont expect change uk to feature much, since I expect their policy will be labour's so why botherSean_F said:The anti-EU vote will be split three ways; the pro-EU vote will be split six ways. One should fancy an anti-EU party to come first.
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Easy.AlastairMeeks said:What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
"We're Not As Crap As All The Others"0 -
Is he going to be driving her home?Black_Rook said:Presented without comment.
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/11148151584535060510 -
Oh dear.JackW said:
Easy.AlastairMeeks said:What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
"We're Not As Crap As All The Others"0 -
Theyd not get beyond the cover. Too busy arguing over the font.Jonathan said:
Quite frankly that applies to any nation election right now. The manifesto that Grieve, Clarke, Francois & Baker can rally around would have to be a choose your own adventure book.AlastairMeeks said:What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
Now, hold that thought and ask yourself what their prospectus would be for a general election as well. That’s why the Conservatives will not be seeking a general election this year.0 -
Yeah. No urgency. We need the EU27 to contradict their previous position and a law change next week or we collapse out on Friday night.kle4 said:
Hasn't it gone quiet because they've taken the weekend off? Theres no urgency anymore.Benpointer said:It's all gone a bit quiet on the Con-Lab Brexit talks, which probably means they are making some progress. MVx on Tuesday anyone?
(x = a positive integer - I've lost count.)
No rush everyone0 -
Really? That is not a winner, given so many if it's own members disagree, in recent times.JackW said:
Easy.AlastairMeeks said:What would the Conservative party prospectus for the Euro elections be? It’s almost inexpressible.
"We're Not As Crap As All The Others"0 -
Yep. I'm somene who thinks No Deal would be (long term) fine, but ultimately I'm not stupid, I recognise this as an acceptable way forward.DavidL said:
I don't see any of that. Of course there will still be some loons who will maintain that we are still too close to the EU and that they are "clipping our wings". Of course there will still be some loons who want to start the arguments again by having a referendum about rejoining. But I honestly think that the vast bulk of people including our 2 major parties will just want to move on and accept the new status quo of a close trading relationship but no formal political structures (we will of course work closely with the EU on a variety of issues) for the foreseeable future.DougSeal said:
The problem with that is that there can never be full Brexit. The Faragists will blame any failure on the Remainers and the Remainers will say “told you so”. Like socialism, Brexit can never be a failure because it’s never been done properly.CD13 said:There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
The polariation of this country at the moment is like the division between Royalists and Republicans in late nineteenth century France. The Brexiteers have won, like the Royalists won the 1871 election, but won’t accept the prize because it’s not “pure” enough. The Bourbon claimant, the Compte de Chambourd, famously refused the crown because Parliament insisted on keeping the Tricolour whereas he wanted the Fleur-de-Lis brought back. Similarly the ERG won’t take the prize because of the backstop. The Royalists morphed into the anti-Drefusards and then the Petainists and the division was only finally laid to rest by their being utterly discredited after WW2. 75 years later. I think that’s what we have to look forward to.0 -
Its how our mps think.RochdalePioneers said:
Yeah. No urgency. We need the EU27 to contradict their previous position and a law change next week or we collapse out on Friday night.kle4 said:
Hasn't it gone quiet because they've taken the weekend off? Theres no urgency anymore.Benpointer said:It's all gone a bit quiet on the Con-Lab Brexit talks, which probably means they are making some progress. MVx on Tuesday anyone?
(x = a positive integer - I've lost count.)
No rush everyone0 -
As far as Brexit is concerned the Telegraph (onlineat least) has ceased to be a newspaper in any real sense. It's simply a hard-Brexit propaganda sheet and I treat everything it says on the subject its a massive pinch of salt. If Iain Dale is to be believed we can expect the Brexit Party to out-poll the Tories by about 10 to 1. Any takers?rottenborough said:On topic:
This from Iain Dale in Telegraph:
"I did a random phone-around of Tory MPs, candidates and activists on Saturday. With the exception of one MP, I found not a single one of them who would be voting Conservative in the European elections. To a man and woman, they all said they would be voting for The Brexit Party. Interestingly none mentioned Ukip, a party which is now identified with rampant Islamophobia, rather than Euroscepticism."0 -
Yes, having them uncomfortable allies constantly fighting internally would go swimmingly.Black_Rook said:Presented without comment.
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/11148151584535060510 -
If that’s someone’s idea of a dream I would hate to be privy to their nightmaresBlack_Rook said:Presented without comment.
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/11148151584535060510
