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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliame
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliament seats in the United Kingdom?
This market by Ladbrokes is very intriguing, because as if seems likely, the UK takes part in the European elections there’s going to be quite a few betting opportunities.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html
Not so sure about UKIP - in the 2015 GE over 6,000 voters turned out for them in Newport West, compared to just over 2,000 this week. That doesn't indicate much resilience IMO. And the confusion with Farage and his Brexit party isn't going to help them.
Rather sleepy, but I quite like that pun. Mildly surprised you didn't go for D'Hondt EU Want MEPs, though.
Hmm. I think there's something in the CUK (I preferred them as Tiggers) or Lib Dems. I'll give that a look once I'm suitably caffeinated.
Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
Certainly better than the Aussie time slot, but it'll be nice when a race is on at the normal time.
"Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn."
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1114769800537038850?s=21
8/1 on UKIP is a reasonable punt, as they will be the leading Anti-Europe party. The fact that they are a shambolic fractious party of sub EDL thugs hasn't put voters off in the past.
Brexit party may get Farage a seat, but I cannot see any more. It will be the Nigel Farage Ego party.
LDs at 25 is tempting, particularly if CHUK dont table a slate. I dont think that they have the infrastructure to do so.
In the East Midlands we have one of the most Eurosceptic constituencies, with 5 MEP, 2 Kippers, 2 Tories and Labour. The Labour one is the only one with any sort of profile, appearing fairly often on Sunday Politics East Midlands. We LDs are mid selection, with 11 applicants manifestos to select from by STV, electonically and clising on the 15th, but getting one of the 5 seats will be a tricky threshold. There is a similar vote for LDs and Greens in 2014.
A lot depends on electoral alliances, tacit or otherwise on the Europhile half of the country.
I recall vividly two early heart rending stories of troubled PBers :
"Dear Aunty Jack, I'm a middle aged sex maniac, former drug addict and lost soul. Any solution? - Sean of Primrose Hill"
Aunty Jack - "Dear Sean write a best selling book or three, get married, knock out a sprog or two and enjoy regular incoherent rants on the interweb thingy"
"Dear Aunty Jack, my 512 pair sandal collection is getting out of hand, almost matched by my binge spending on toupees. Help !! - Mike of Bedford"
Aunty Jack - "Dear Mike - Relax, spend the money on long shot political bets and send the wigs to Michael Fabricant or Donald Trump for recycling."
I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.
A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.
I appreciate it's probably wishful Remainer thinking on my part.
The European elections do seem to have a huge symbolic significance for Leavers, and I am presuming May will do her utmost to get out before then if she can. Though like much of Brexit, it doesn't really make sense that people would be so grievously offended if we take part in a kind of mock election while we are in the process of dotting the is and crossing the ts in the Brexit legislation.
The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47840033
Not sure West Bank settlement annexation will do the trick.
In the meantime I've had a bet at a boosted 13/1 on Change UK and a punt on the LDs at 25/1 including a free £5 bet.
(Might be wrong, if so, apols)
I am somewhat embarrassed to admit I have never paid much attention before - just voted for whichever party I felt most supportive of at each election. And wikipedia doesn't seem to have much on it. Thanks
He wants to add Samaria to Israel because the area they have isn't big enough.
Incidentally even the curator of Yad Vashem refers to Netanyahu as 'that racist bastard.'
It reminds me of the Remainers wanting another referendum with a single Remain option versus only one of the Leave options (May's EU deal or no deal), thus splitting the Leave vote.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towie,_Aberdeenshire
(I appreciate I have probably made a pineapple-on-pizza level PB faux pas there, but hey wth.)
Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
How much longer can we go on like this? Change UK looks like a dead end to me. They have lost their opportunity by taking so long to become a party, failing to invite and build a mass membership, not fighting Newport and not looking particularly ready to fight either the Euros if they come or the locals either. But with 50% of the population choosing none of the above a break in the mold is surely coming.
However, FPTP seems to have had much the same effect on our lot.
(x = a positive integer - I've lost count.)
The list writes itself.
So splitting the vote is very possible.
Interesting betting heat.
Hmm. On an unrelated note, I'm wondering if the multiple votes was for another electoral system. Hmm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method
Even toddlers get the makeover:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/8780096/girl-brother-towie-makeover-tan-eyebrows/
In my defence, I'm really very sleepy. Slept terribly. Possible due to a curse.
"Surely having each of the Leave options listed would split the Leave vote?!"
Exactly. As would including only one of the Remain options. How about a second referendum with the two options as Leave versus a fully federal EU country with its own army and government. "No," you'll shout. "You're only including one of the remain options."
The only honest second referendum option is Leave versus Remain (We're giving you a second chance, you thick bastards). What's a people's vote? As opposed to the first being restricted to animals?
"But we're changed our minds after nearly three years." OK, we vote every three years on whether to leave or stay? Even the EU would refuse to have that.
"But we're really keen on the EU." So democracy is now who shouts loudest not who has the numbers.
"But you cheated" How? "Because you won."
It's difficult to argue with a five-year-old, so it's best we shouldn't even try.
Personally, I think in a 2nd Ref - May's Deal versus Remain - May's Deal will win. Then both we Remainers and the ERG hard-nuts will have to stfu.
You won't believe me but I would be content with that outcome.
I expect the Leave vote to split many ways and/or abstain.
They represent a step back, not forward.
It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
There's certainly a (small) gap for a new centre party, drawing support heavily from the professional middle classes, but that would require it to do some thinking.